Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Irufushi]

6 hours ago, luckyBatistuta said:

C’mon Irufushi, do your bit for the country. To avoid catching or spreading it, you need to distance yourself from folk, find a quiet field, go for a walk in the countryside. Wait a minute🤔

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yas, an excuse for more gowf. You jealous of my swing there😉

Oh very nice finish, aye . 😂

[Jambo-Jimbo]

11 hours ago, Irufushi said:

I believe I won’t be sat in my living room this time next week pissing my pants over the flu like you are, no.

 

If it were the flu nobody would be overly bothered, but Coronavirus isn't the flu, it's not even close.

 

[vegas-voss]

26 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

3 more people tested positive in Scotland, according to the govt this morning. 

I'm surprised none have been in Edinburgh and Glasgow yet with them being much larger population

[OmiyaHearts]

5 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I'm surprised none have been in Edinburgh and Glasgow yet with them being much larger population

I think one is in Glasgow.

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, OmiyaHearts said:

I think one is in Glasgow.

So that one of the new cases announced today then

[OmiyaHearts]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

If it were the flu nobody would be overly bothered, but Coronavirus isn't the flu, it's not even close.

 

True. The flu has killed a lot more people in this country than coronavirus.

[The Real Maroonblood]

If anyone is looking for some kind of reassurance read The Daily Mail headline.

An absolute abomination of a newspaper.

[vegas-voss]

Just now, The Real Maroonblood said:

If anyone is looking for some kind of reassurance read The Daily Mail headline.

An absolute abomination of a newspaper.

Them and The Star are shocking I must have clicked them once so I keep getting notifications.The hyperbole from both is something else are they owned by the same company ?

[vegas-voss]

Forth Valley area one of the carrier's is from

[OmiyaHearts]

10 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

So that one of the new cases announced today then

Fortunately, no one I know here is panicking.  I was in Lidl last night and plenty of loo roll, soap & tinned foods available. Didn't see anyone with a trolley full of tins and hand sanitiser!

 

Well, except one guy my wife told me about. She was at a party a the weekend and this flat had stacks of loo roll and tins of tuna. Said the guy was genuinely scared of dying and didn't want to leave his flat😆

 

My wife works as a barista in a shop right outside Central Station, she's already accepted she'll get the virus, as many of her customers are getting the bus to / from Glasgow Airport. Plus she's interacting with about 800 - 1,000 different people a day. She's quite excited about two weeks off fully paid, and I'd have to join her as well I think. Nice wee bit of time off before my April holiday!

Edited March 5, 2020 by OmiyaHearts

[vegas-voss]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

One is definitely in the greater Glasgow area. Not sure exactly what that entails. Densely populated area is where spreads would seem most likely for obvious reasons.

 

Watching the chief medical officer for England has been quite interesting and reassuring, they are obviously dealing with a huge amount of unknowns. 
 

However, his view is infection rate most likely to be about 20%. The mortality rate to be about 1%, though that varies across age groups. Children seem to be the safest group which is reassuring as my daughter has a immune deficiency issue. 
 

He believe community spread is happening in U.K. level. Containment is not impossible but unlikely and we’re almost moving into delay phase. 
 

I much prefer listening to the chief medical officer on this as opposed to some of the self appointed experts that’s for sure!

Hopefully information is coming from China and being listened to as cases are falling there so they must be doing something right.

[The Real Maroonblood]

5 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Them and The Star are shocking I must have clicked them once so I keep getting notifications.The hyperbole from both is something else are they owned by the same company ?

I just look at their headlines on the BBC App.

There are people who are the most vulnerable to this virus must be really scared.

The papers don’t give a shit.

[vegas-voss]

2 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Fortunately, no one I know here is panicking.  I was in Lidl last night and plenty of loo roll, soap & tinned foods available. Didn't see anyone with a trolley full of tins and hand sanitiser!

 

Well, except one guy my wife told me about. She was at a party a the weekend and this flat had stacks of loo roll and tins of tuna. Said the guy was genuinely scared of dying and didn't want to leave his flat😆

 

My wife works as a barista in a shop right outside Central Station, she's already accepted she'll get the virus, as many of her customers are getting the bus to / from Glasgow Airport. Plus she's interacting with about 800 - 1,000 different people a day. She's quite excited about two weeks off fully paid, and I'd have to join her as well I think. Nice wee bit of time off before my April holiday!

One thing I don't need to worry about is bog roll we bulk buy off Amazon 😂

 

I was out about in Musselburgh yesterday and it was very busy just folk going about there normal day.To be honest was more concerned with the minging junkie who seen his bus was going to be 10 mins so just whipped out the knob and had a piss at the side of the stop 😂 fortunately going in a different direction to where I was heading.

[vegas-voss]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

They have unique powers in Xhina due to their regime, which probably couldn’t be used here. Albeit they seem to have controlled it very well all things considered and no doubt people are learning from this.

Sure I read they have been out bleaching whole cities

[OmiyaHearts]

8 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

The flu has been about forever Coronavirus 19 has been about for a few month and in this country for a few weeks. It’s not surprising the flu has killed a lot more people 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

I have never known the govts to react like they have to the flu ie. quarantining people and areas, closure of schools and colleges, playing sports events behind close doors etc. 

It’s clear they don’t view this like the flu, cause it’s not.

Fair enough, I appreciate we're all different and will approach things with a different perspective.

 

I'm not going to worry about a bug that's infecting around 0.1% of a countries population.

[The Real Maroonblood]

9 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

One thing I don't need to worry about is bog roll we bulk buy off Amazon 😂

 

I was out about in Musselburgh yesterday and it was very busy just folk going about there normal day.To be honest was more concerned with the minging junkie who seen his bus was going to be 10 mins so just whipped out the knob and had a piss at the side of the stop 😂 fortunately going in a different direction to where I was heading.

The thing is the junkie will probably just sail through all of this.

[vegas-voss]

4 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

The thing is the junkie will probably just sail through all of this.

Totally probably never even heard of it either

[Boab]

16 hours ago, OmiyaHearts said:

You are really overreacting about this IMO. The death rate outside China is less than 1% overall, it's even dropped to 0.7% in China in cases since 1st Feb.

 

Most people wont know someone who has died from it and most won't know someone who's had it. Using terms like wildfire, ramp up and big jump won't help your own mentality.

 

The chances are you wont get it and that's the likeliest outcome, so take it easy. You go to the gym, so I assume relatively healthy, so you prob have a 99.999% chance of survival if you unexpectedly get infected.

 

Live your life as normal and don't worry about getting the flu. You haven't before, so this shouldn't be any different.

The percentages are incredibly low.

I agree with your post.

Taking China, from a population of over 1.4 Billion, 85,000 have contracted it. From that a very low % have died.

Don’t think my calculator can deal with that low a figure !

[Jambo-Jimbo]

26 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

True. The flu has killed a lot more people in this country than coronavirus.

 

I think we will have to wait until at least a full year has passed before anyone will be able to compare the stats to see if the flu has killed more people within the same time frame.

 

As has been said the Flu has been around for millennia whilst Coronavirus has been around for a few months, there is no way the death tolls can be compared with each other until at least a year has passed, probably much much longer.

 

[OmiyaHearts]

16 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

The thing is the junkie will probably just sail through all of this.

Haha totally.

 

These guys have been fighting off all sorts of illnesses on the streets. They're like Captain Scarlett.

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Haha totally.

 

These guys have been fighting off all sorts of illnesses on the streets. They're like Captain Scarlett.

[vegas-voss]

2 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Haha totally.

 

These guys have been fighting off all sorts of illnesses on the streets. They're like Captain Scarlett.

The shit that is in their bodies they probably have the cure for it 🤣

[OmiyaHearts]

9 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

The shit that is in their bodies they probably have the cure for it 🤣

Well, I was always looking for an excuse to try it.....

[vegas-voss]

5 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Well, I was always looking for an excuse to try it.....

Got to get through at least 20 years of abuse first before you become teflon to everything 🤣

[vegas-voss]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1235499666050936832

[The Internet]

Think I'm somewhere in between 'I must panic buy toilet rolls' and 'ach nowt to worry aboot the normal flu kills mare folk'. 

 

I'm quietly concerned but not overly so, certainly not about myself. More worried about elderly/weaker relatives really. 

[westbow]

4 hours ago, I P Knightley said:

Oh, there was birthday cake thrown around and everything - unashamed celebration. 

 

But now I hear talk that the Who might be seeking some advice from WHO on whether to postpone their forthcoming UK tour 😢😷

I’m not sure the Doctor is a medical doctor although anyone who has lived to 900 years old must know a thing or two about staying healthy.

[milky_26]

15 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

If hand washing is the answer I know what we have to do just cover the whole of the UK in this until we get rid of it.

 

 

Remember those water cannons Boris bought while mayor of London. They would sort it out driving round spraying people

[westbow]

1 minute ago, milky_26 said:

Remember those water cannons Boris bought while mayor of London. They would sort it out driving round spraying people

Next OF game. Could set the virus back months.

[OmiyaHearts]

33 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Whilst I don’t think you should worry about, thinking it’s only going to impact 0.1% is a bit flawed, 

 

This is just at the start of the outbreak, the numbers will increase and it will impact more than 0.1% of the population. 
 

The government own modelling has a reasonable worst case scenario at 80% of population getting it. Now that is a reasonable worst case scenario but the chief medical officer believes it will be be circa 20% of population. With a mortality rate of circa 1%. 
 

Scotland population is about 5M, from memory and to aid my maths, that means a million people on this country would likely get it. With a 1% mortality rate that 10.000 people dead. That’s a pretty large impact. U.K. wide you could multiply by about a factor of 10. 
 

It’s very difficult to predict how this impacts the population and I think the govt are doing the right thing in planning for worst hoping for best. However, we are coming out the containment phase and moving into the delay stage which suggests the number will ramp up pretty quickly. Look at what has happened at Italy will give us a decent indication what to expect here, 

 

I also understand the virus is mutating/evolving with two main strains identified. One is much more damaging than the other.. Alternatively, we hit spring and the things dies out with improved temps etc. The truth is we don’t know all that much as the thing it so new, 
 

I don’t think their is mass panic around this at all. Despite what some claim people on this thread aren’t ‘wetting their pants’ Most people are just trying to understand what’s going on and potential impact to deal with it. 

 

In something like this I look very much at what the medical bods/scientists are saying. They undoubtably have the best handle on it,. I watched the chief medical office this morning I and found him very reassuring but this looks like it will have a massive impact on us all. Not just the immediate health impact but the impact on economy is going to be large. In someways the economic impact concerns me more but that’s my own selfish reason by in large,
 

My hope is the dies all quickly but looking at the information that doesn’t seem the most likely outcome. 
 

The attitude of nothing to see here is as daft as the world is about to end tbh. 
 

The U.K. is undoubtably amongst the best placed countries to deal with this situation and no one should unduly be worrying but they should be following the medical advice in order to try and minimise the spread and impact of CV-19. 👍

 

 

Where are you getting these figures from? That's probably the most ridiculous claim I've read since this thing kicked off. No country in the world has a % rate of infection like that.

 

China - 80,430 infected from 1.386 Billion people. Currently 25,185 active cases and 52,232 recovered

Japan - 331 infected from 126.8 Million people. Currently 282 active cases with 43 recovered.

 

Aye, but Scotland will have 1 million infected from a population of 5 million.

Edited March 5, 2020 by OmiyaHearts

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

As I said in my post the chief medical officer for England. He was at committee this morning on this subject. 
 

 

Small bit of it on the Twitter link I posted.I agree he spoke well

[OmiyaHearts]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

As I said in my post the chief medical officer for England. He was at committee this morning on this subject. 
 

 

So you think its reasonable to believe that Scotland will have a 1 in 5 infection rate? 

 

China is 1 in 17,200

Iran is 1 in 23,000

Italy is 1 in 19,500

S Korea is 1 in 8,500

UK could be 1 in 5

 

If that was the case they would be locking down cities and enforcing everyone to stay home. 

[vegas-voss]

10 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Where are you getting these figures from? That's probably the most ridiculous claim I've read since this thing kicked off. No country in the world has a % rate of infection like that.

 

China - 80,430 infected from 1.386 Billion people. Currently 25,185 active cases and 52,232 recovered

Japan - 331 infected from 126.8 Million people. Currently 282 active cases with 43 recovered.

 

Aye, but Scotland will have 1 million infected from a population of 5 million.

It's slowing in China but it isn't gone.Thats the figure just now and remember they think it will come back so 20% over the course of say 18 months isn't that ridiculous and of course of that 20% vast majority won't even know they will have it.Think some folk might just have a wee thickly throat and pass it off as nothing.also it's 1% or lower of those that catch it that they think will die not just 1% of the country will die.

 

I'm no expert none of us are so I'm just taking the Jürgen Klopp stance when he was asked about it and said I don't know that's what the experts are for.The whole process they are going through is so as fee people catch this the better.

[vegas-voss]

8 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

So you think its reasonable to believe that Scotland will have a 1 in 5 infection rate? 

 

China is 1 in 17,200

Iran is 1 in 23,000

Italy is 1 in 19,500

S Korea is 1 in 8,500

UK could be 1 in 5

 

If that was the case they would be locking down cities and enforcing everyone to stay home. 

That's the figure just now the figure they are talking about is the end game but I do agree with you I think they are probably just saying these figures to get the message across to be be vigilant and the numbers will end up being lower.

Edited March 5, 2020 by vegas-voss

[OmiyaHearts]

15 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

That's the figure just now the figure they are talking about is the end game but I do agree with you I think they are probably just saying these figures to get the message across to be be vigilant and the numbers will end up being lower.

I appreciate they would have to be prepared for a worst-case scenario. If there was even a slight chance of a 1 in 5, all travel would be cancelled to and from UK. 

[Nicholas Brody]

On 29/02/2020 at 00:00, Nicholas Brody said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

 

Here's what the said about Swine Flu.

 

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.

The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."

 

457 people died.

 

Quoting my own post but it's quite clearly still relevant. 

 

Here's what the chief medical officer was saying about the swine flu outbreak.

[OmiyaHearts]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

I honestly don’t know. I do think the Chief Medical Officer to the U.K. govt is probably better informed than either of us. So I would tend to go with the expert, whilst understanding he’s dealing with a lot of unknowns, The modelling of it I’m fairly confident will be correct, subject to the input variable. 
 

I’m reporting what’s he is saying it’s not my opinion. I would certainly take his opinion over yours. Unless your called Catherine Calderwood, I might reconsider 😀

 

If you get on YouTube you will be able to watch the committee from this morning and see what he said. He speaks very well and very matter of fact imo. 
 

You also need to remember in the countries you are talking about the spread has not concluded. China and Italy have locked down cities, for the very reason.  The the U.K. government has also not ruled that out 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

I believe, though not 100%, that 20% modelling is based on the spread in the Wuhan area. China locked the area down so that is the best, most developed example. Like or loathe them the Chinese govt have acted very well to this situation, albeit they are in a unique situation due to regime,
 

There is a balance to be struck here with economics. Which will influence things as much as anything. I don’t want to sound harsh, the cost of 10,000 will be less than the economic impact at some point. Calculations like that happen all the time and that will influence policy. 
 

I did find it quite interesting that CMO believed we had moved from containment to dealay.

I don't watch the news and I have no interest in the containment / delay stuff, it doesn't matter to me. I don't need to watch the video, as I have zero concerns about the situation. I have done a fair amount of reading online, as well as speaking to friends in Japan about their experience over the last few months.

 

We obviously have polar opposite views on this subject and certainly attempted to justify those views, plus I completely understand why elderly people would have some concern, my parents are in their 70's and my mum has respiratory issues.

 

But I won't be changing how I do anything, or even care if I get it. Two weeks in bed fully paid, then back to work!

[I P Knightley]

1 hour ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Where are you getting these figures from? That's probably the most ridiculous claim I've read since this thing kicked off. No country in the world has a % rate of infection like that.

 

China - 80,430 infected from 1.386 Billion people. Currently 25,185 active cases and 52,232 recovered

Japan - 331 infected from 126.8 Million people. Currently 282 active cases with 43 recovered.

 

Aye, but Scotland will have 1 million infected from a population of 5 million.

"Projections"

[AlphonseCapone]

22 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I honestly don’t know. I do think the Chief Medical Officer to the U.K. govt is probably better informed than either of us. So I would tend to go with the expert, whilst understanding he’s dealing with a lot of unknowns, The modelling of it I’m fairly confident will be correct, subject to the input variable. 
 

I’m reporting what’s he is saying it’s not my opinion. I would certainly take his opinion over yours. Unless your called Catherine Calderwood, I might reconsider 😀

 

If you get on YouTube you will be able to watch the committee from this morning and see what he said. He speaks very well and very matter of fact imo. 
 

You also need to remember in the countries you are talking about the spread has not concluded. China and Italy have locked down cities, for the very reason.  The the U.K. government has also not ruled that out 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

I believe, though not 100%, that 20% modelling is based on the spread in the Wuhan area. China locked the area down so that is the best, most developed example. Like or loathe them the Chinese govt have acted very well to this situation, albeit they are in a unique situation due to regime,
 

There is a balance to be struck here with economics. Which will influence things as much as anything. I don’t want to sound harsh, the cost of 10,000 will be less than the economic impact at some point. Calculations like that happen all the time and that will influence policy. 
 

I did find it quite interesting that CMO believed we had moved from containment to dealay.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in the modelling at this stage. There are far too many unknowns just now. It should be considered nothing more than a rough approximation of an estimate. As more data and trends start to emerge then yeah the modelling will become better but even then, models aren't particularly good at predictions despite the perceptions people have or the stock we put in them. 

 

I'd say the Chief Medical Officer will have a better idea than most though, especially the numeours viral experts getting their 15 seconds of fame on news channels more than keen to continue fuelling the idea of an impending apocalypse because it sells.

 

If he reckons 20% at the minute then that's probably the figure I'd be going with, I'm sure he'll adjust that up or down many times as he gets more information. Always worth baring in my mind that 20% isn't all at the one time, it's over the course of a particular period. I don't know if they've estimated a prevalence rate. 

[OBE]

Consumer stockpiling has started. Snipers should be deployed on supermarket roofs to eradicate this kind of selfishness.

 

An anonymous guy down south on radio phone in claimed he has 1 year of provisions. I hope a tin of beans falls from his top shelf and cracks his feckin skull.

[Boab]

Just now, Old Blue Eyes said:

Consumer stockpiling has started. Snipers should be deployed on supermarket roofs to eradicate this kind of selfishness.

 

An anonymous guy down south on radio phone in claimed he has 1 year of provisions. I hope a tin of beans falls from his top shelf and cracks his feckin skull.

Think I would need another extension to get that amount of beer in my hoose !

[OBE]

8 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

In fairness I generally get my toilet paper from Costco. The packs they sell there are probably about a years worth !!!

 

I've synced my dumping to predominantly take place a work.

[OBE]

1 minute ago, Boab said:

Think I would need another extension to get that amount of beer in my hoose !

 

Brewery motor hand-braked on the drive...

[Boab]

Just now, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

Brewery motor hand-braked on the drive...

A good plan !

A white coat on the news saying hand gel must be alcohol-based.

It will be when it gets into my system, pal !

[AlphonseCapone]

29 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Bud I’m merely reporting what CMO said at committee this morning. All my numbers are based of his figures. 
 

I understand how modelling works but just pointing out it’s the best estimate at the moment,, subject to input variable which are pretty wide ranging! However, seems to have a bit more credence than posters on here taking current infection rate and dividing by county population🤷🏻‍♂️

 

How accurate it will be who knows? Time will tell. Part of the reason I find the topic so interesting is the fact that it’s in infancy there are so many permutations. 

 

 

I wasn't having a go. Just highlighting the general weaknesses of modeling that not everyone might appreciate or understand. 

 

It will be interesting to see how it develops. It might actually lead to some solid containment guidance for future infections that end up being much more deadly. The nightmare is an infection which is slow to produce symptoms, fast to spread but ultimately deadly. 

[OBE]

1 minute ago, Boab said:

A good plan !

A white coat on the news saying hand gel must be alcohol-based.

It will be when it gets into my system, pal !

 

 

Water of life eh?

 

Get pissed, wake me up when September comes.

 

 

[manaliveits105]

Asda Chesser told mrs that as soon as hand sanitiser was put on shelf Chinese were buying by box load

just back from Morrison’s Gyle and toilet rolls stocks running down and soap aisle is ridiculous - have people just started washing ffs 

Edited March 5, 2020 by manaliveits105

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

6 hours ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Fortunately, no one I know here is panicking.  I was in Lidl last night and plenty of loo roll, soap & tinned foods available. Didn't see anyone with a trolley full of tins and hand sanitiser!

 

Well, except one guy my wife told me about. She was at a party a the weekend and this flat had stacks of loo roll and tins of tuna. Said the guy was genuinely scared of dying and didn't want to leave his flat😆

 

My wife works as a barista in a shop right outside Central Station, she's already accepted she'll get the virus, as many of her customers are getting the bus to / from Glasgow Airport. Plus she's interacting with about 800 - 1,000 different people a day. She's quite excited about two weeks off fully paid, and I'd have to join her as well I think. Nice wee bit of time off before my April holiday!

Did a huge Tesco online shop and upped my Tin goods/rice/pasta/sauces and Bog roll plus 16 2lt Water etc just gonna make up 2 boxes of stuff, use to have them anyway when I went camping back in 2000ish (the fuel strike was on) so long life easy cook foods always useful. Not as if I lose out if nothing happens just use the stuff slow time anyway. Not really a panic about getting virus but  the effects of the panic of the panic of the virus.

[OBE]

9 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Asda Chesser told mrs that as soon as hand sanitiser was put on shelf Chinese were buying by box load

just back from Morrison’s Gyle and toilet rolls stocks running down and soap aisle is ridiculous - have people just started washing ffs 

 

Pardon the pun, but why the run on toilet rolls? Lord BJ's sorted.

 

Chinese sending hand sanitiser to China allegedly.

[Nucky Thompson]

Those bams stockpiling deserve to get the virus.

I couldn't give a feck if there is a shortage of toilet rolls, I'll just wipe my erse with newspaper if need be.

Also I'll just let everyone else sanitise their hands, Ill just use soap and water