Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Tommy Brown]

1 hour ago, Nookie Bear said:

Got to justify the salaries, these guys 🤷‍♂️

swings and roundabouts, there's winners and losers.

 

I'm investing heavily in Forsters Funerals shares.

[hueyview]

15 hours ago, Nicholas Brody said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

 

Here's what the said about Swine Flu.

 

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.

The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."

 

457 people died.

Yes, you make a fair point.....

Maybe its my memory but this virus now seems to be constantly throwing up figures, spread statistics...   I did not see swine flu directly effecting my life....  But their seems an inevitably that Corina will eventually reach me.. And thwrs also in bad health...

[hueyview]

5 hours ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

God, I've seen it all now......   

[JFK-1]

15 hours ago, hueyview said:

Early BBC radio this morning said 80-90 % will get virus in British isles...  3% serious/organ failure/death...

 

That's roughly 50 million, with a million on seriously dodgy ground...   

That's worrying if your old... Frail.. Really I'll....  

 

A 3% fatality rate would be around 2 million dead. We would be struggling to bury them far less treat them. 

[hueyview]

3 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

A 3% fatality rate would be around 2 million dead. We would be struggling to bury them far less treat them. 

I expect they meant folk needing serious medical help, only a fraction of which would go on to demise......

[JFK-1]

46 minutes ago, hueyview said:

I expect they meant folk needing serious medical help, only a fraction of which would go on to demise......

 

Problem is they aren't entirely sure yet. But from a BBC article posted today I saw a guess that even at it's best is quite sobering.

 

Quote

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

[Neon]

17 hours ago, DarthVodka said:

Spoke to a medic on the health board for England last week, who specialises in virology (mainly) HIV.  The are of the opinion that most of the world population will get the infection at some point, but it will likely lose potency in the warmer months and just cause symptoms similar to cold. You won’t even twig it was that.

 

the aim is to stop it spreading widely now.....but it’s close to pandemic proportions  

Been keeping a watchful eye on the spread of the virus and the southern hemisphere seems to be those at present most infected - I would hang fire on when it gets warmer it will disappear philosophy.

 

In southern China it has been 25-30C this week.

 

Look at (apparent infections in Russia,) Scandinavia and Canada - the spread seems much slower.

It makes sense that influenza spreads when people sneeze etc and it is more virulent but either it has just taken time to travel to colder climates or there 

could be a greater chance of infection in warmer climes as people generally touch their faces more to wipe sweat, It is all conjecture from my perspective

so it will be interesting to see the next few months, I don't think warmer temperatures will have much of a bearing.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

5 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Problem is they aren't entirely sure yet. But from a BBC article posted today I saw a guess that even at it's best is quite sobering.

 

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

 

Still the 1% mortality rate, which has been constant since the start of this.

 

Mind 1% is still a hell of a lot of people, 650,000 out of the population of 65m could perish, if the mortality rates stays at 1%.

 

[Neon]

On 23/02/2020 at 19:05, Jambo, Goodbye said:

I live in Daegu and have spent the best part of three days cooped up in my apartment. 

 

I think most people are going about their lives as best they can,  but the city centre has been a ghost town. People are afraid to be in big crowds and lots of shopping malls and all public spaces such as libraries have been closed.

 

I feel like watching Train to Busan 😒

Christ, just got back onto this thread but Deagu is a real hotspot hope you are safe and sound and have plenty of supplies.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Italian death toll has just jumped by 8 to 29 fatalities from 1000 confirmed cases.

 

Either the Italian mortality rate is exceptional or there are a lot more unrecorded cases in Italy or the mortality rate is higher than the reported 1%.

[Jambo, Goodbye]

52 minutes ago, neonjambo said:

Christ, just got back onto this thread but Deagu is a real hotspot hope you are safe and sound and have plenty of supplies.

Thanks man, I'm just staying indoors as much as I can. Not much else I can do really. City isn't on lockdown but it's on standstill. Schools now closed until the 23rd.

 

Luckily I live a stone throw's from a 24/7 supermarket 😎

[DarthVodka]

1 hour ago, neonjambo said:

Been keeping a watchful eye on the spread of the virus and the southern hemisphere seems to be those at present most infected - I would hang fire on when it gets warmer it will disappear philosophy.

 

In southern China it has been 25-30C this week.

 

Look at (apparent infections in Russia,) Scandinavia and Canada - the spread seems much slower.

It makes sense that influenza spreads when people sneeze etc and it is more virulent but either it has just taken time to travel to colder climates or there 

could be a greater chance of infection in warmer climes as people generally touch their faces more to wipe sweat, It is all conjecture from my perspective

so it will be interesting to see the next few months, I don't think warmer temperatures will have much of a bearing.

yeah I very much doubt it will disappear, one of the predictions is that it loses some of its potency

[Jambo-Jimbo]

First death in the USA, a high risk patient in her 50's.

 

[John Gentleman]

I just got back from my weekly shop. I only shop for myself, so I'm not wheeling round trolley-loads, but I did notice quite a few (much more than normal) signs stating, "Sorry, item temporarily out of stock". All fast-moving iems made in China like disinfectant wipes, some brands of razor blades, light-bulbs etc. In other words, all the cheap (but not necessarily nasty) stuff. Obviously, the big retailers here in Australia are operating with low inventories and the Chinese manufacturers aren't back to full production - if they're actually producing anything at all.

 

Back to Covid-19, I'd be wary of what some of the western 'experts' are predicting. They're largely extrapolating from the Chinese figures, but the Chinese have a lot going against them. Their 1.5 billion population is responsible for comsuming 40% of the world's tobacco, so that wouldn't be doing their lungs any good even before the virus came along. To get some perspective on this, 1.5 million Chinese die annually from smoking-related illnesses. And the whole of Asia has very high rates of smoking, particularly amongst males. The (male) numbers range from India (70%), China (52%), Indonesia (67%) and Japan (30%). In Australia, the rate is 14% and declining rapidly. No surprise, then, that we're seeing relatively high mortality rates in Asia. The Italian numbers are perplexing, but that's probably down to the shambolic way they collect stats. The elephant in the room is India. With >1.3 billion population, sky-high rates of cardio-pulmonary disease, a shit health system and an even shittier environment, they've only declared 3 cases - all of whom are now 'cured'. I'm not buying that number, not for a minute. Anyways, here's a site which purports to provide real-time updates on the numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 hours ago, John Gentleman said:

I just got back from my weekly shop. I only shop for myself, so I'm not wheeling round trolley-loads, but I did notice quite a few (much more than normal) signs stating, "Sorry, item temporarily out of stock". All fast-moving iems made in China like disinfectant wipes, some brands of razor blades, light-bulbs etc. In other words, all the cheap (but not necessarily nasty) stuff. Obviously, the big retailers here in Australia are operating with low inventories and the Chinese manufacturers aren't back to full production - if they're actually producing anything at all.

 

Back to Covid-19, I'd be wary of what some of the western 'experts' are predicting. They're largely extrapolating from the Chinese figures, but the Chinese have a lot going against them. Their 1.5 billion population is responsible for comsuming 40% of the world's tobacco, so that wouldn't be doing their lungs any good even before the virus came along. To get some perspective on this, 1.5 million Chinese die annually from smoking-related illnesses. And the whole of Asia has very high rates of smoking, particularly amongst males. The (male) numbers range from India (70%), China (52%), Indonesia (67%) and Japan (30%). In Australia, the rate is 14% and declining rapidly. No surprise, then, that we're seeing relatively high mortality rates in Asia. The Italian numbers are perplexing, but that's probably down to the shambolic way they collect stats. The elephant in the room is India. With >1.3 billion population, sky-high rates of cardio-pulmonary disease, a shit health system and an even shittier environment, they've only declared 3 cases - all of whom are now 'cured'. I'm not buying that number, not for a minute. Anyways, here's a site which purports to provide real-time updates on the numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

 

I had heard some 'expert' mention that he thought smoking might play some part in the number of Chinese deaths, so it is interesting to see the above figures.

 

In Italy air pollution & or smoking may also be playing a part, because the area of Italy worse affected is the industrial North.

 

Pure speculation, but you never know.

[John Gentleman]

7 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Pure speculation, but you never know.

It's beyond speculation; the numbers are published. The biggest risk factors (for a death outcome) are:

Aged 80+ with a comorbidity of:

Cardiovascular disease and/or

Diabetes and/or

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and/or

Malignancy.

Aged 70–79, with the same comorbidities as above.

Aged 60–69, with the same comorbidities as above.

The first two cohorts (aged 70–80+) have accounted for 80+% of deaths so far.

The third cohort (60–69) account for 3.6% of deaths. Below that age range, the percentages fall off a cliff.

 

I think it would be instructive for us all to pay attention to the WHO and our countries' chief medical officers, rather than random virologists/biologists who'll all be wanting their 15 minutes of fame. In that respect they're a bit like economists; line 10 of them up, present them with a problem, and you'll get 10 different answers.

And definitely don't pay attention to Trump Tweets!

[Jambo-Jimbo]

19 minutes ago, John Gentleman said:

It's beyond speculation; the numbers are published. The biggest risk factors (for a death outcome) are:

Aged 80+ with a comorbidity of:

Cardiovascular disease and/or

Diabetes and/or

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and/or

Malignancy.

Aged 70–79, with the same comorbidities as above.

Aged 60–69, with the same comorbidities as above.

The first two cohorts (aged 70–80+) have accounted for 80+% of deaths so far.

The third cohort (60–69) account for 3.6% of deaths. Below that age range, the percentages fall off a cliff.

 

I think it would be instructive for us all to pay attention to the WHO and our countries' chief medical officers, rather than random virologists/biologists who'll all be wanting their 15 minutes of fame. In that respect they're a bit like economists; line 10 of them up, present them with a problem, and you'll get 10 different answers.

And definitely don't pay attention to Trump Tweets!

 

Yes, I had seen those stats.

Puts me firmly in the high risk group, only thing I have going is my age (under 60 (just) but I do have the two highest risk factors.

 

[AlphonseCapone]

5 hours ago, John Gentleman said:

It's beyond speculation; the numbers are published. The biggest risk factors (for a death outcome) are:

Aged 80+ with a comorbidity of:

Cardiovascular disease and/or

Diabetes and/or

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and/or

Malignancy.

Aged 70–79, with the same comorbidities as above.

Aged 60–69, with the same comorbidities as above.

The first two cohorts (aged 70–80+) have accounted for 80+% of deaths so far.

The third cohort (60–69) account for 3.6% of deaths. Below that age range, the percentages fall off a cliff.

 

I think it would be instructive for us all to pay attention to the WHO and our countries' chief medical officers, rather than random virologists/biologists who'll all be wanting their 15 minutes of fame. In that respect they're a bit like economists; line 10 of them up, present them with a problem, and you'll get 10 different answers.

And definitely don't pay attention to Trump Tweets!

 

Absolutely spot on. Particularly the bolded. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

12 new cases in the UK announced today, total now 35.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

It kind of feels like containment hasn’t been successful. When I look at how quickly it escalated in a week or so in Italy I do begin to wonder how quickly it will escalate here. 
 

One of the cases can’t be tracked back which would tend to suggest that it will be out there and spreading. The biggest issue will undoubtably be not everyone will be aware they have it and spreading it. Containment, understandably, is still the primary control method and I believe the govt have said they won’t rule out city wide quarantine amongst some other precautions which will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. 
 

I guess, in a lot of ways containment is about delaying the spread as long as possible to try and enable cures, treatments, preparations etc to be developed. 
 

However, it’s beginning to feel like something we will need to live with otherwise the world is going grind a stop. Which would probably be more damaging than the virus. 
 

It’s a real difficult one to predict. 6 weeks ago I had barely heard of the thing. I’m hoping it disappears as quickly as it appears but it certainly beginning to feel like we will all be impacted by this to varying degrees.

 

I doubt any containment is ever going to be 100% effective, especially when dealing with an airborne pathogen and more especially one whose symtoms in the early stages resemble the common cold, flu like symtoms & coupled with the time of the year.

 

Hands up all those with a bit of a sniffle & sneeze/cough just now.

I know I have, been like this since before Christmas, fine for a week or so then sneezing/runny or blocked nose odd cough now and then, lasts a day or two then fine for a week or so, then rinse and repeat, but have never actually fallen ill, but you know there is something just hovering in the background.

 

I'd reckon there must be thousands, tens, hundreds of thousands feeling the same way in the UK right now.

Without testing the entire population you'll never know who has common winter bugs and who has Covid-19, unless they take ill enough to need medical attention.

 

[Sooperstar]

Scotland has now joined the party.

[151]

39 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

First case in Scotland, Tayside area, individual recently in Italy. 
 

 

 

Almost certain the boy works in my work. He went to a rugby game in Italy, came back went into work and advised them his family might have it. Since then he has been off. It was in the Telegraph last week. 

 

Bring it on

[Jeff]

Defo tian

[vegas-voss]

20 minutes ago, Wham Bam Austin McCann said:

 

Almost certain the boy works in my work. He went to a rugby game in Italy, came back went into work and advised them his family might have it. Since then he has been off. It was in the Telegraph last week. 

 

Bring it on

There will probably have been at least one person from every village and town through out the Lothians and borders at the rugby last week as well.

Edited March 1, 2020 by vegas-voss

[vegas-voss]

46 minutes ago, Wham Bam Austin McCann said:

 

Almost certain the boy works in my work. He went to a rugby game in Italy, came back went into work and advised them his family might have it. Since then he has been off. It was in the Telegraph last week. 

 

Bring it on

This your work ?

 

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/fp/fury-at-bosses-silence-as-dundee-factory-worker-sent-home-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/

[AlphonseCapone]

Deserves them right for following rugby.... 

[151]

11 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

This your work ?

 

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/fp/fury-at-bosses-silence-as-dundee-factory-worker-sent-home-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/

 

Unfortunately mate, yes.

[Jeff]

3 minutes ago, Wham Bam Austin McCann said:

 

Unfortunately mate, yes.

 

Any updates from management?

[The Real Maroonblood]

42 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

There will probably have been at least one person from every village and town through out the Lothians and borders at the rugby last week as well.

Stay well.

[151]

1 minute ago, Jeff said:

 

Any updates from management?

 

Will find out tomorrow. No one said anything on Friday. It was one of the guys from Maintenance who was in Italy. We don't really have anything to do with them on the factory floor but I saw him come in. 

 

My kids have been ill since last Wednesday and me and my partner have been choked up all weekend.

 

One of the kids in my sons class visited England and came back ill and passed it on to him and its worked its way through us. Im not really into panicking over things medically to be honest I have just put it down as a cold but will of course monitor things. 

 

Will post if there is updates at my work but very doubtful they will send anyone home as it will affect how much pumps we put out targets and all that.

[Jeff]

6 minutes ago, Wham Bam Austin McCann said:

 

Will find out tomorrow. No one said anything on Friday. It was one of the guys from Maintenance who was in Italy. We don't really have anything to do with them on the factory floor but I saw him come in. 

 

My kids have been ill since last Wednesday and me and my partner have been choked up all weekend.

 

One of the kids in my sons class visited England and came back ill and passed it on to him and its worked its way through us. Im not really into panicking over things medically to be honest I have just put it down as a cold but will of course monitor things. 

 

Will post if there is updates at my work but very doubtful they will send anyone home as it will affect how much pumps we put out targets and all that.

 

First kickback victim!

 

[indianajones]

Confirmed now in Scotland. 

[luckyBatistuta]

Wuhan-400 🤔

Edited March 2, 2020 by luckyBatistuta

[luckyBatistuta]

5 hours ago, Wham Bam Austin McCann said:

 

Unfortunately mate, yes.

If your going to the game on Tuesday, get yourself in the hibs end, not wanting you spreading your germs in our end.

 

 

On a serious note, hope you haven’t been anywhere near him mate, take care👍

[151]

8 hours ago, Jeff said:

 

First kickback victim!

 

 

Plenty victims on here mate. 

 

I'll be alright

 

I effectively have a sore throat just now. Nothing else is up.

[The Internet]

[Mikey1874]

Acting quickly and decisively should help us.

 

The difficulty has been that China and Iran didn't act quickly enough though to be fair China have since acted. Not sure about South Korea. 

 

It could be the Italy outbreak was from Iran. 

[luckyBatistuta]

https://gulfnews.com/world/wuhan-400-novel-predicted-coronavirus-40-years-ago-internet-stumped-1.1581971564436 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/
 

 

I was listening to a phone in on BBC Scotland last night and they were discussing the story that it had been predicted in this book. I had a look online and it’s not really the case, but got me reading about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the area where this virus all started,

[Meadows]

Was recently  tested for Coronavirus as my symptoms ticked a lot of the boxes . 
The measures in place seem admirable , with drive in testing at both the Western and RIE . 
The isolation room at the Western infectious diseases ward is interesting, speaking to you through an intercom etc. 
Nothing but admiration for the staff 10/10 👍

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, luckyBatistuta said:

https://gulfnews.com/world/wuhan-400-novel-predicted-coronavirus-40-years-ago-internet-stumped-1.1581971564436 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/
 

 

I was listening to a phone in on BBC Scotland last night and they were discussing the story that it had been predicted in this book. I had a look online and it’s not really the case, but got me reading about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the area where this virus all started,

 

As one reply said "A user wrote, "Haha Infinite monkey theorem. Pick any event and chances are that some book written at some would have a similar plot . Conspiracy theory has no end."

 

Besides, if this virus was man-made as some of the conspiracy theorists believe, you'd think they would have made a vaccine against it at the same time, pretty dumb to make a biological weapon which you don't have any protection from yourself.

[luckyBatistuta]

36 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

As one reply said "A user wrote, "Haha Infinite monkey theorem. Pick any event and chances are that some book written at some would have a similar plot . Conspiracy theory has no end."

 

Besides, if this virus was man-made as some of the conspiracy theorists believe, you'd think they would have made a vaccine against it at the same time, pretty dumb to make a biological weapon which you don't have any protection from yourself.

It doesn’t predict this at all in the book, but I could believe that a virus which is now sweeping the globe and started beside a laboratory like that in China, could possibly be linked to it in some way.

Edited March 2, 2020 by luckyBatistuta

[luckyBatistuta]

45 minutes ago, Meadows said:

Was recently  tested for Coronavirus as my symptoms ticked a lot of the boxes . 
The measures in place seem admirable , with drive in testing at both the Western and RIE . 
The isolation room at the Western infectious diseases ward is interesting, speaking to you through an intercom etc. 
Nothing but admiration for the staff 10/10 👍

I don’t know how the hospitals are going to cope with this. It’s bad enough at the moment with all the numpties rocking up to the A&E with a paper cut etc. Now they will be bombarded by hoards of folk who have nothing more than a little cough, or a runny nose.

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

9 minutes ago, luckyBatistuta said:

I don’t know how the hospitals are going to cope with this. It’s bad enough at the moment with all the numpties rocking up to the A&E with a paper cut etc. Now they will be bombarded by hoards of folk who have nothing more than a little cough, or a runny nose.

Would think this virus would deter people from going A&E or Doctors unless they really needed to, main headlines over the last fortnight are these are hotbeds for spreading it. Maybe while the numbers are still low 1 person in 1.6 million in UK but if it does shoot up it will stop the time wasters.

[The Real Maroonblood]

12 minutes ago, luckyBatistuta said:

I don’t know how the hospitals are going to cope with this. It’s bad enough at the moment with all the numpties rocking up to the A&E with a paper cut etc. Now they will be bombarded by hoards of folk who have nothing more than a little cough, or a runny nose.

Sad but true.

[vegas-voss]

How do you get a sickline for work if come the event you are told to self isolate ?

[Jeff]

Just now, vegas-voss said:

How do you get a sickline for work if come the event you are told to self isolate ?

 

Phone the docs and someone in a space suit will pop by

[151]

The story reported apparently had nothing to do with the company. Coincedental that he went to Italy and the story broke about someone in Tayside. 

 

Only a matter of time anyway before its doing the rounds as there is no way of complete isolation, and also no way of knowing how many people have came in contact with during the early stages of the illness.

[luckyBatistuta]

10 minutes ago, Mac_fae_Gillie said:

Would think this virus would deter people from going A&E or Doctors unless they really needed to, main headlines over the last fortnight are these are hotbeds for spreading it. Maybe while the numbers are still low 1 person in 1.6 million in UK but if it does shoot up it will stop the time wasters.

You would think so mate, it’s what you and I would do, but sadly there are a lot of idiots out there

[luckyBatistuta]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

I think the strategy will change soon, once containment/delaying is no longer feasible, that point must be approaching, it will be about treatment and minimising impact. 
 

I read they are saying 4 out 5 people who get it will have very little impact on them. So the strategy will change to not so much testing everyone, which is about containment, to just treating those severely impacted. The transmission will become less important once it’s loose 
 

Unless containment is successful, it will probably just become something we all have to live with. So if you just have the ‘sniffles’ it will be deal with it. 
 

Don’t get me wrong that will put a big strain on the NHS. However, despite some poor political point scoring, the U.K. is amongst the best places countries to deal with this. 

 

I have also found crisis tend to bring out the best in humans, 
 

 

Here is hoping it does. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact I’ll probably get hit with it, with the job I do (just have a wee time off☺️)I’m nor worried about that really, but I am worried about my parents.

[vegas-voss]

10 minutes ago, Jeff said:

 

Phone the docs and someone in a space suit will pop by

😂👍