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Dagger Is Back

An interesting take on the stock market 

 

But Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said that the reaction of investors to the announcements by companies was becoming increasingly irrational.

"Yes, the outbreak is frightening. Yes, it's unquantifiable. But is it as bad as a traditional influenza season in the West? No."

He said it had killed fewer people in Europe than the French heatwave last year.

"I don't want to sound macabre or unconcerned about it, but it shows how stock market sentiment has shifted from being over-exuberant to having no fear at all to now having reassessed things in a more sober fashion."

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AlphonseCapone
40 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Virologist on tv saying the death rate is 10x that of flu.  Think I’m going to trust him over anyone else! 

 

The death rate from the flu is 0.1%. 10x that is 1%. That's basically what absolutely everyone has been saying for weeks, actually slightly lower. This isn't new information. 

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It's absolutely pounding the markets at the moment.

 

My SIPP and ISA have lost around 15% in value over the past week. That's the risk when you invest in equities though.

 

Not overly bothered as the market will recover and still got a few years before I intend to cash in, but still pretty mental to see how much it's impacting the global economy.

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57 minutes ago, Dagger Is Back said:

An interesting take on the stock market 

 

But Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said that the reaction of investors to the announcements by companies was becoming increasingly irrational.

"Yes, the outbreak is frightening. Yes, it's unquantifiable. But is it as bad as a traditional influenza season in the West? No."

He said it had killed fewer people in Europe than the French heatwave last year.

"I don't want to sound macabre or unconcerned about it, but it shows how stock market sentiment has shifted from being over-exuberant to having no fear at all to now having reassessed things in a more sober fashion."

 

Yes, it's unquantifiable. But is it as bad as a traditional influenza season in the West? No."

 

 

Erm yes it is, if you look at the %age death rate then it is much much worse. 

 

 

 

 

"He said it had killed fewer people in Europe than the French heatwave last year."

 

 

Again yes but how many people died as a %?  If you step into the sun or you catch coronavirus you are more likely to die from the virus than the sun.

 

Folk seem desperate to play this down but if you step back and look at the facts this seems to be spreading very easily and has a pretty decent kill ratio. 

 

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Brighton Jambo

Matter of time until football in this country is impacted as per other countries.  
 

can see a few games behind closed doors before the season is out. 

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4 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Matter of time until football in this country is impacted as per other countries.  
 

can see a few games behind closed doors before the season is out. 

 

Blessing in disguise for the tortured Jambo eh?

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10 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Matter of time until football in this country is impacted as per other countries.  
 

can see a few games behind closed doors before the season is out. 

I really think we need to see how things are in a few weeks before we can really say how anything is going to be to be honest.We have to hope Italy was a one off in how fast things spreaded there cause other than there and South Korea it hasnt taken hold anywhere.I say that as worrier about it as well.

Edited by vegas-voss
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Brighton Jambo
8 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I really think we need to see how things are in a few weeks before we can really say how anything is going to be to be honest.We have to hope Italy was a one off in how fast things spreaded there cause other than there and South Korea it hasnt taken hold anywhere.I say that as worrier about it as well.

Of course I agree but that’s Switzerland called all its matches off this weekend, six nations impacted etc.  I would say it more likely than not we will see an impact to the Scottish sporting calendar as the Scottish government won’t hang around.  If they need to act I’d imagine they would do it quickly.  Truly hope I’m wrong.  

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Globally, more than 80,000 people have been infected. About 2,800 have died.

 

That's a 3.5% fatality rate. Got me wondering what the average annual global population increase is. If it were less than that and long term we just had to live with such figures then we would be looking at a decreasing population.

Nature strikes back. 

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2 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Of course I agree but that’s Switzerland called all its matches off this weekend, six nations impacted etc.  I would say it more likely than not we will see an impact to the Scottish sporting calendar as the Scottish government won’t hang around.  If they need to act I’d imagine they would do it quickly.  Truly hope I’m wrong.  

I don't know about the UK Matt Hancock gave it the full Frank Drebin nothing to see here in the commons yesterday

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Brighton Jambo
9 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

That's a 3.5% fatality rate. Got me wondering what the average annual global population increase is. If it were less than that and long term we just had to live with such figures then we would be looking at a decreasing population.

Nature strikes back. 

If this spreads to sub Saharan Africa that fatality rate will increase significantly.  Then the numbers could get scary.  

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2 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If this spreads to sub Saharan Africa that fatality rate will increase significantly.  Then the numbers could get scary.  

Honestly don't get why folk don't seem to think a 3% death rate isn't worrying

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Brighton Jambo
12 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Honestly don't get why folk don't seem to think a 3% death rate isn't worrying

Agree, and that while the numbers of infected are low.  If they increase significantly it puts huge pressure on the already stretched health service meaning beds shortages and more and more people getting minimal treatment.  health professionals will get sick and this increases the pressure further and then deaths from this and other illnesses increase.  This isn’t instead of seasonal flu and other illnesses this is in addition. 
 

The fact the many countries are taking it so seriously and closing borders, locking down whole cities and towns quarantining hundreds of people on holidays etc shows that the people dismissing it as nothing are wrong.  
 

 

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1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

The markets aren’t going mental so much because of the virus killing people. It’s the economic impact down the line that is causing the issue. China will probably contract, a recession is due and this will ensure it for many countries, supply chains will be problematic in short term, travel restrictions being imposed etc etc all these will slow down growth massively hence the markets will ‘correct’ to reflect this info. 
 

In someways when the containment phase stops you will likely see a bit of a bounce over a number of months. Concerns about many of the issues will reduce as we will just be living with a disease. 
 

 

 

There was already serious concerns about a global slowdown & potential global recession before all of this, the longer this goes on the more likely it will become.

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1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If this spreads to sub Saharan Africa that fatality rate will increase significantly.  Then the numbers could get scary.  

 

Be perhaps even more devastating once it get's into the poor masses of India. Potentially a virus holocaust. I'm presuming it hasn't quite done that yet because these peoples don't travel widely like Europeans. 

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1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If this spreads to sub Saharan Africa that fatality rate will increase significantly.  Then the numbers could get scary.  

or conversely if it spreads to an area and infects lots of healthy adults the fatality rate could decrease to be in line with the normal flu

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Like reading up about this stuff.

We all have coronavirus. Four actually.

Causes stuff like the common cold that can be treated of course but not stopped. 
Fascinating !

This one is a beast of course  !

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Space Mackerel

Has no one sussed out the Culture of Fear?

 

Its been doing the rounds since the 60’s. 
 

I died of SARS btw.

Edited by Space Mackerel
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4 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

According to Mick Mulvaney it's all a hoax to topple Trump.

 

 

Donald Trump Jr said in an interview yesterday that Democrats are hoping that millions of people in the USA will die, just to increase the chances of a Trump defeat in November.

 

He's as daft as his old man, it would seem. There is no limit to the tripe that the Trump family utter.  

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1 minute ago, Barack said:

Thoughts and prayers, mate.

 

You'll be missed. :(

 

 

Really?...........where would the Scottish Labour Party be without his memes?

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10 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Really?...........where would the Scottish Labour Party be without his memes?

i feel you might be thinking of the wrong poster

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CavySlaveJambo

The Mouse House has closed a third and fourth park due to Covid-19. Shanghai and Hong Kong Disneyland’s have been closed for weeks already but Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea are closing for the next 3 weeks at least. 
 

 

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Spoke to a medic on the health board for England last week, who specialises in virology (mainly) HIV.  The are of the opinion that most of the world population will get the infection at some point, but it will likely lose potency in the warmer months and just cause symptoms similar to cold. You won’t even twig it was that.

 

the aim is to stop it spreading widely now.....but it’s close to pandemic proportions  

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Shanks said no
14 minutes ago, DarthVodka said:

Spoke to a medic on the health board for England last week, who specialises in virology (mainly) HIV.  The are of the opinion that most of the world population will get the infection at some point, but it will likely lose potency in the warmer months and just cause symptoms similar to cold. You won’t even twig it was that.

 

the aim is to stop it spreading widely now.....but it’s close to pandemic proportions  

 

And this is why we need to keep an eye on sub Saharan Africa, the current temperature in Lagos, Nigeria is between 26-30 degrees

Edited by The Frenchman Returns
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19 minutes ago, DarthVodka said:

Spoke to a medic on the health board for England last week, who specialises in virology (mainly) HIV.  The are of the opinion that most of the world population will get the infection at some point, but it will likely lose potency in the warmer months and just cause symptoms similar to cold. You won’t even twig it was that.

 

the aim is to stop it spreading widely now.....but it’s close to pandemic proportions  

Early BBC radio this morning said 80-90 % will get virus in British isles...  3% serious/organ failure/death...

 

That's roughly 50 million, with a million on seriously dodgy ground...   

That's worrying if your old... Frail.. Really I'll....  

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Nicholas Brody
15 minutes ago, hueyview said:

Early BBC radio this morning said 80-90 % will get virus in British isles...  3% serious/organ failure/death...

 

That's roughly 50 million, with a million on seriously dodgy ground...   

That's worrying if your old... Frail.. Really I'll....  

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

 

Here's what the said about Swine Flu.

 

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.

The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."

 

457 people died.

Edited by Nicholas Brody
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If this does become pandemic and the UK gets over run. Surely the Government would have to make the private sector help the NHS tackle this, and retiree Doctors and nurse would be made to work. 'Your country needs you' sort of thing. 

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3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

If this does become pandemic and the UK gets over run. Surely the Government would have to make the private sector help the NHS tackle this, and retiree Doctors and nurse would be made to work. 'Your country needs you' sort of thing. 

 

NHS facilities do use the private sector when needed.

 

But UK facilities are good. The worry globally is countries with poor health facilities. This expert below from US talks about access to oxygen. He also says most healthy people are not at risk. Elderly the highest risk (and health workers).

 

 

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Unfortunately I'm really high risk due to a treatment I take that basically keeps me alive 😐 and to double it up we booked our first wedding anniversary trip to Treviso just 2 weeks ago 🙄

Oh well 🤞

Anyone want me to pick their lottery numbers?

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17 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

I think everybody coming home should have been told to self isolate.Dont know about being tested then as does it not have a period of 14 days that it's undectable ?

They weren’t told anything by anyone. No medical staff at either airport. Not even a leaflet. When they got home they thought they should at least call their GP. Tests were arranged and they were told to strictly self isolate. Loads of people won’t bother even thinking about it unless they are pulled aside and TOLD what they MUST do. Planes are really bad for catching infections so all it takes is one person in a flight to be carrying it and potentially hundreds infected, half of whom don’t give enough of a toss to take basic precautions like seeking advice or even just washing their hands regularly. I’m alright Jack. No one in basic good health is going to die from this but FFS think about those not so healthy who are at real risk here. I was astonished they were allowed to fly home and just walk back into the community without so much as a brief check or an advisory leaflet or something 

Edited by JimmyCant
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Joey J J Jr Shabadoo
17 hours ago, Dagger Is Back said:


Magic. Another thing added to the list

 

Danke

 

16 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Looking forward to visiting that.

 

You book tickets before you go in (ticket office behind the Reichstag). Last tour is 22:45. 

 

https://www.bundestag.de/en/visittheBundestag/dome/registration-245686

 

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11 hours ago, Nicholas Brody said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

 

Here's what the said about Swine Flu.

 

"Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.

The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths."

 

457 people died.


Got to justify the salaries, these guys 🤷‍♂️

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13 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

Donald Trump Jr said in an interview yesterday that Democrats are hoping that millions of people in the USA will die, just to increase the chances of a Trump defeat in November.

 

He's as daft as his old man, it would seem. There is no limit to the tripe that the Trump family utter.  


In fairness, I expect a few SNP-minded people have thought the same about Scotland’s older generation who scuppered their Indy dream. 

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  • Maple Leaf changed the title to Coronavirus pandemic
  • davemclaren changed the title to Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )
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