Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Fxxx the SPFL]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

Scottish numbers: 18 May 2021

Summary

• 268 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+107; up from 238 a week ago]
• 17,515 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results [+6,154]
  • 1.7% of these were positive [+0.1%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [=]
• 4 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+1]
• 70 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+2]
• 3,045,152 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 1,669,469 have received their second dose [+9,362; +30,933]

hooray your back i was just about to post the figures your too quick off the mark. still looking good with Hospital admissions and every day more people are vaccinated. 👍

[redjambo]

Here's the latest trend data:

 

			7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	WHO	Today	Yesterday			16 May	15 May	...	13 May	...	1 May
Scotland			36	35	+1		36	34	...	31	...	22
East Renfrewshire	2	3	107	96	+11		90	74	...	55	...	24
Glasgow City	3	3	107	102	+5		102	95	...	82	...	33
Midlothian	2	3	61	56	+5		54	55	...	51	...	10
East Dunbartonshire	2	3	50	46	+4		47	40	...	30	...	51
Clackmannanshire	2	2	47	23	+24		27	33	...	47	...	14
South Lanarkshire	2	2	46	48	-2		51	46	...	37	...	18
Moray	3	2	40	47	-7		61	61	...	68	...	65
Stirling	2	2	39	32	+7		31	28	...	25	...	11
Fife	2	2	38	39	-1		37	36	...	33	...	32
North Lanarkshire	2	2	35	36	-1		35	36	...	37	...	40
Renfrewshire	2	2	31	29	+2		28	27	...	21	...	20
North Ayrshire	2	2	29	26	+3		27	27	...	27	...	17
Perth & Kinross	2	2	28	28	0		30	31	...	27	...	22
Edinburgh City	2	2	27	28	-1		27	23	...	21	...	27
Falkirk	2	2	23	25	-2		28	21	...	25	...	23
West Lothian	2	2	23	26	-3		26	26	...	23	...	26
East Ayrshire	2	1	19	20	-1		24	22	...	28	...	45
Dundee City	2	1	16	13	+3		13	15	...	14	...	13
Angus	2	1	15	9	+6		7	11	...	13	...	7
Aberdeen City	2	1	14	17	-3		16	18	...	23	...	13
Aberdeenshire	2	1	14	16	-2		14	15	...	12	...	8
South Ayrshire	2	1	12	17	-5		20	20	...	23	...	25
Na h-Eileanan Siar	1	1	11	7	+4		7	7	...	4	...	0
East Lothian	2	1	10	10	0		9	9	...	6	...	5
Inverclyde	2	1	9	15	-6		15	17	...	13	...	15
Orkney Islands	1	1	9	9	0		9	9	...	0	...	0
West Dunbartonshire	2	1	9	10	-1		9	8	...	11	...	28
Highland	2 / 1	1	5	6	-1		8	9	...	8	...	9
Scottish Borders	2	1	5	4	+1		4	4	...	3	...	6
Shetland Islands	1	1	4	0	+4		0	0	...	0	...	0
Argyll & Bute	2 / 1	1	3	1	+2		1	0	...	0	...	7
Dumfries & Galloway	2	1	3	3	0		3	4	...	4	...	19
7-day averages			Today	Yesterday			16 May	15 May	...	13 May	...	1 May
Tests			20196	19913	+283		19935	19645	...	19305	...	18484
Positivity rate %			1.5	1.5	0.0		1.5	1.5	...	1.4	...	1.1
Deaths			0.4	0.4	0.0		0.4	0.4	...	0.3	...	1.3
All Vaccinations			39863	39982	-119		39299	38382	...	36940	...	45346
1st Dose			16598	18091	-1493		17480	17136	...	15362	...	6677
2nd Dose			23265	21891	+1374		21819	21246	...	21578	...	38669
Daily data
All in hospital			70	68	+2		61	69	...	63	...	65
Non-ICU			66	65	+1		58	67	...	59	...	54
ICU			4	3	+1		3	2	...	4	...	11

[redjambo]

23 minutes ago, Stewie Griffin said:

Hi Red, from reading this thread you are obviously a lot more clued up than me about the stats for different areas and so on. I was just wondering if you knew if the current rise in cases in Midlothian is linked to the primary school in Penicuik ? Because if the vast majority of cases are from that one school then it seems harsh to move the whole of Midlothian to level 3. 

 

To be honest I'm not clued up at all about the specifics of local areas, Stewie. Perhaps others might be able to provide you with more information. One of the key factors in deciding what to do about an area is the extent to which the virus has "leaked out" from any local hotpot into general community transmission. Even if you get some info on where the infections are, the only people who probably know the extent to which it is out in the community are the local track and trace team and the decision makers.

 

In saying that, you might get some clues at https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview (View cases by neighbourhood->Select Local Authority: Midlothian) and https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Cases by Intermediate Zone->Search in table: Midlothian). Both of these appear to show that the major concentration is in the Pentland area.

[redjambo]

23 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

hooray your back i was just about to post the figures your too quick off the mark. still looking good with Hospital admissions and every day more people are vaccinated. 👍

 

You did a great job posting the figures periodically while I was on my self-imposed sabbatical, FtS - thanks.

 

Yes, for most of the country we're probably in the phase of the recovery that could very well be called "The Long Slog".  

[Stewie Griffin]

4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

To be honest I'm not clued up at all about the specifics of local areas, Stewie. Perhaps others might be able to provide you with more information. One of the key factors in deciding what to do about an area is the extent to which the virus has "leaked out" from any local hotpot into general community transmission. Even if you get some info on where the infections are, the only people who probably know the extent to which it is out in the community are the local track and trace team and the decision makers.

 

In saying that, you might get some clues at https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview (View cases by neighbourhood->Select Local Authority: Midlothian) and https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Cases by Intermediate Zone->Search in table: Midlothian). Both of these appear to show that the major concentration is in the Pentland area.

That’s much appreciated Red thanks for the links. 

[professorfate]

1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

This is a bloody nightmare really ! Let’s just accept reality and get rid of those ludicrous tiers ! Accept that cases sorry infections  will rise , but with the knowledge that the vaccine is doing the biz ! Hospital and deaths The only yardstick to measure things by . It was always anticipated that the lowering of the threshold was going to create absolute chaos ! The  current strategy is now bordering on abusive and insane . It’s playing havoc with people’s businesses and mental health . Unforgivable really . That’s it I’ll def be boozing this weekend ! 

Totally agree everything you said.

[Nookie Bear]

23 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Lol I think u mean she , Linda bauld and Leitch will be lost ? Back to hum drum academia for them and pulling teeth ! 15 mins of fame over ! 

 

I think they will be relieved to get back to anonymity (except within academic circles).

[The Real Maroonblood]

18 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Here's the latest trend data:

 

			7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	WHO	Today	Yesterday			16 May	15 May	...	13 May	...	1 May
Scotland			36	35	+1		36	34	...	31	...	22
East Renfrewshire	2	3	107	96	+11		90	74	...	55	...	24
Glasgow City	3	3	107	102	+5		102	95	...	82	...	33
Midlothian	2	3	61	56	+5		54	55	...	51	...	10
East Dunbartonshire	2	3	50	46	+4		47	40	...	30	...	51
Clackmannanshire	2	2	47	23	+24		27	33	...	47	...	14
South Lanarkshire	2	2	46	48	-2		51	46	...	37	...	18
Moray	3	2	40	47	-7		61	61	...	68	...	65
Stirling	2	2	39	32	+7		31	28	...	25	...	11
Fife	2	2	38	39	-1		37	36	...	33	...	32
North Lanarkshire	2	2	35	36	-1		35	36	...	37	...	40
Renfrewshire	2	2	31	29	+2		28	27	...	21	...	20
North Ayrshire	2	2	29	26	+3		27	27	...	27	...	17
Perth & Kinross	2	2	28	28	0		30	31	...	27	...	22
Edinburgh City	2	2	27	28	-1		27	23	...	21	...	27
Falkirk	2	2	23	25	-2		28	21	...	25	...	23
West Lothian	2	2	23	26	-3		26	26	...	23	...	26
East Ayrshire	2	1	19	20	-1		24	22	...	28	...	45
Dundee City	2	1	16	13	+3		13	15	...	14	...	13
Angus	2	1	15	9	+6		7	11	...	13	...	7
Aberdeen City	2	1	14	17	-3		16	18	...	23	...	13
Aberdeenshire	2	1	14	16	-2		14	15	...	12	...	8
South Ayrshire	2	1	12	17	-5		20	20	...	23	...	25
Na h-Eileanan Siar	1	1	11	7	+4		7	7	...	4	...	0
East Lothian	2	1	10	10	0		9	9	...	6	...	5
Inverclyde	2	1	9	15	-6		15	17	...	13	...	15
Orkney Islands	1	1	9	9	0		9	9	...	0	...	0
West Dunbartonshire	2	1	9	10	-1		9	8	...	11	...	28
Highland	2 / 1	1	5	6	-1		8	9	...	8	...	9
Scottish Borders	2	1	5	4	+1		4	4	...	3	...	6
Shetland Islands	1	1	4	0	+4		0	0	...	0	...	0
Argyll & Bute	2 / 1	1	3	1	+2		1	0	...	0	...	7
Dumfries & Galloway	2	1	3	3	0		3	4	...	4	...	19
7-day averages			Today	Yesterday			16 May	15 May	...	13 May	...	1 May
Tests			20196	19913	+283		19935	19645	...	19305	...	18484
Positivity rate %			1.5	1.5	0.0		1.5	1.5	...	1.4	...	1.1
Deaths			0.4	0.4	0.0		0.4	0.4	...	0.3	...	1.3
All Vaccinations			39863	39982	-119		39299	38382	...	36940	...	45346
1st Dose			16598	18091	-1493		17480	17136	...	15362	...	6677
2nd Dose			23265	21891	+1374		21819	21246	...	21578	...	38669
Daily data
All in hospital			70	68	+2		61	69	...	63	...	65
Non-ICU			66	65	+1		58	67	...	59	...	54
ICU			4	3	+1		3	2	...	4	...	11

👍

[redjambo]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Underlines their selective use of data (and before any independentistas get their kilts twisted, it's probably being done in London by the corrupt morris dancers, too). If ER and ML both showed reasonable levels - by their own measures - to remain in Tier 3, then this mirrors the situation when Edinburgh was headed for a lower tier last autumn but was kept in its existing tier due to the ultimately accurate prediction that it would slip back above the threshold for lowering.

 

It's either incompetence or hypocrisy, and with this current lot of charlatans, probably a fair chunk of both.

 

I know it's one of my soap box topics but the SG appears to use case figures by sample date as a basis for their decisions (along with other factors of course). These are fine, and accurate too, but are necessarily usually three days out of date (the vast majority of reported cases are for samples that were taken within the last 3 days). The figures presented in the table I posted are case figures by reporting date. These daily figures won't be quite as accurate on a day-to-day basis but given the usual flow of tests and the fact that they are being used in 7-day stats (which is how they are presented above), they're not going to be far off at all, and more importantly they're about as bang up to date as you can get. So, in my opinion, they should also be used in the decision-making process as they're an effective early warning system.

 

So, erring on the side of caution (if that's the approach you want to take) and focussing on the case stats rather than the other factors, when the SG made their tier decisions, perhaps they should have said that any council area where (i) the by-reporting-date or by-sample-date 7-day case rate is >=50, or (ii) the trend or other evidence shows that the 7-day-case rate is heading above 50 within the next week, should be held back from dropping a tier for at least a week. That would have made sense to me.

 

As you say, it was the type of logic correctly used to keep Edinburgh dropping a tier back in the day, but apparently not used in this situation. That shouldn't be the case.

 

As a slight complicating factor, as Stewie mentioned above, there may be mitigating circumstances for a certain local authority's case figures in that the cases may be very localised, perhaps even limited to a single establishment or two, and thus more easily blitzed. If we had a limited outbreak in one of the areas with smaller populations, for example, that might send the case rate over 50 but it might only be a handful of people in a situation where it's fairly easy nippable in the bud. So there will be exceptional circumstances to the approach suggested above. In general though, consistency of approach is important.

 

[redjambo]

17 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Headed past four boozers yesterday and resisted the urge to go in for a pint. If there's even remote rumblings that they may close again I'll just have to treat myself to a mini pub crawl this afternoon on the way home from work!

 

Get in as many as you can just in case!

[JudyJudyJudy]

45 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Underlines their selective use of data (and before any independentistas get their kilts twisted, it's probably being done in London by the corrupt morris dancers, too). If ER and ML both showed reasonable levels - by their own measures - to remain in Tier 3, then this mirrors the situation when Edinburgh was headed for a lower tier last autumn but was kept in its existing tier due to the ultimately accurate prediction that it would slip back above the threshold for lowering.

 

It's either incompetence or hypocrisy, and with this current lot of charlatans, probably a fair chunk of both.

Well said . 

[JudyJudyJudy]

47 minutes ago, professorfate said:

Totally agree everything you said.

👍

41 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Headed past four boozers yesterday and resisted the urge to go in for a pint. If there's even remote rumblings that they may close again I'll just have to treat myself to a mini pub crawl this afternoon on the way home from work!

I resisted the urge yesterday too . But booked restaurant for Thursday night and out Friday too . Saturday will be given a miss just in case the Hobbos win the cup as We couldn’t bare seeing a see of green in Edinburgh ! No way 👍

[Brighton Jambo]

I’ve just watched an interview on Sky news where one of the experts was saying we are opening up too soon, no one should be travelling and that no major indoor mixing should happen until everyone has been vaccinated.

 

It was interesting to see the presenter, in a very clear shift of emphasis from previous questioning, really push back to say we need to start living with some risk as we do with other things and that at some point the economy does need to be a consideration.  It was very refreshing.

 

Then the expert said if we carry on as expected the hospitalisation numbers will be worse than January.  With 70% of adults in the UK having one vaccine and 40% having both doses, and them being the most vulnerable, how on earth do they arrive at that figure.  I just fundamentally don’t understand how that can be their conclusions.

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I've adopted such a policy since I was about 16 in a rare case of foresight and expedience, awaiting such a day that pubs would be shuttered. Pint and a nip in each pub, and will book an ambulance for the inevitable rolling pin over the head from the missus...

 

Might be useful investing in one of these:

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I won't pretend to be either a) smart enough or b) interested enough to actually look into the stats and how they are put together. However, if the lack of consistency and transparency is obvious enough to a dolt like me, then is it any wonder folk largely gave up on following restrictions after the Christmas debacle. There's very little confidence among the different people I speak to (from a fairly broad slice of Scottish and UK-wide life) that governments are either willing to or capable of making decisions that are in our best interests anymore. 

 

Surges in isolated areas/contexts are, IMO, nothing new, but again, it is 'spikes' that win headlines and in no small way end up nudging government into action (the behaviourist approach works both ways with the media), for good or bad. A week of Covid blackout from the media would go a long way towards ending the pandemic of the mind they have helped to create.

Yes I think it all went pear shaped for the SG after the debacle in early December about tiers . It ended in tears . They are not to be trusted regarding their different reasons/ critieria  for what areas tiers should be . Time to just move on . Ignore them . 

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

I’ve just watched an interview on Sky news where one of the experts was saying we are opening up too soon, no one should be travelling and that no major indoor mixing should happen until everyone has been vaccinated.

 

It was interesting to see the presenter, in a very clear shift of emphasis from previous questioning, really push back to say we need to start living with some risk as we do with other things and that at some point the economy does need to be a consideration.  It was very refreshing.

 

Then the expert said if we carry on as expected the hospitalisation numbers will be worse than January.  With 70% of adults in the UK having one vaccine and 40% having both doses, and them being the most vulnerable, how on earth do they arrive at that figure.  I just fundamentally don’t understand how that can be their conclusions.

 

Everything is a balance. In this case, we have to balance the economy and everyone's quality of life against taking measures against Covid. The "expert" appears to be sitting right on the end of the see-saw. In reality, and sorry for reiterating my opinion, we need to carry on re-opening up, bit by bit and intelligently, while ensuring that we keep control over the virus so that it doesn't "break out" and blitzing any outbreaks that do happen. In other words, we need to be sitting much closer to the centre of the see-saw than the expert would like.

 

I agree. The only way we would be seeing hospital figures like January is if we were to lose control of the virus, perhaps by relaxing all restrictions completely. And that isn't what we're doing. But then again, that doesn't make good TV debate.

[redjambo]

10 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I have a Chinese-made crash helmet, but is that one you posted the Indian Variant?

 

Yes. It protects you from the Indian variant of the virus too. No need to get vaccinated as long as you wear it whenever you're around people.

[Brighton Jambo]

So today’s Covid UK cases are less than this time last week and deaths have dropped by 2/3rd compared to same day last week.  Every day we see this level maintained is another day another 300/400,000 have had a vaccine (1st and 2nd).  Promising.  

[SectionDJambo]

I’m hearing that the problem in Midlothian is mainly in Penicuik. Is that true? If so, what’s happened to cause it?

I’m booked into the local pub on the evening of the Champions League final to meet up with a couple of mates I haven’t seen since last year. Now it looks like we could go back into the previous restrictions already. 
The pub owners must be getting sick being closed, open, closed, open and then probably closed again. The hospitality industry in Scotland might not recover for years and is one of the biggest sources of employment and economic stimulus that we have.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Then the expert said if we carry on as expected the hospitalisation numbers will be worse than January.  With 70% of adults in the UK having one vaccine and 40% having both doses, and them being the most vulnerable, how on earth do they arrive at that figure.  I just fundamentally don’t understand how that can be their conclusions.

 

Sophy Ridge was asking Matt Hancock a similar thing on Sunday and he gave a long winded politicians answer which didn't answer her question.

Her question was basically this, if the most vulnarable have been vaccinated with at least one dose and the Indian variant whilst being more transmissable doesn't appear to be anymore deadly, then who is going to be in hospital, when those who had made up the vast bulk of hospitalisations have been protected.  As said Hancock gave a long winded answer which changed the subject after about 20 seconds, in other words he didn't answer the question and changed the subject.

[The Mighty Thor]

just listening to the radio and they said this;

 

The number of flights to land in the UK from India since the travel ban a fortnight ago is.........110!

 

one hundred and ten flights. since a travel ban. in two weeks.

 

[Nucky Thompson]

4 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just listening to the radio and they said this;

 

The number of flights to land in the UK from India since the travel ban a fortnight ago is.........110!

 

one hundred and ten flights. since a travel ban. in two weeks.

 

I would totally ban them from entering Britain full stop, even if they are UK citizens.

[heartsfc_fan]

37 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

I’m hearing that the problem in Midlothian is mainly in Penicuik. Is that true? If so, what’s happened to cause it?

I’m booked into the local pub on the evening of the Champions League final to meet up with a couple of mates I haven’t seen since last year. Now it looks like we could go back into the previous restrictions already. 
The pub owners must be getting sick being closed, open, closed, open and then probably closed again. The hospitality industry in Scotland might not recover for years and is one of the biggest sources of employment and economic stimulus that we have.

Cases in Midlothian have been pretty low throughout the pandemic. I live in the area so keeping an eye on the numbers.
Disappointing as it was almost at zero a couple of weeks ago I think!

 

 

[SectionDJambo]

Just now, heartsfc_fan said:

Cases in Midlothian have been pretty low throughout the pandemic. I live in the area so keeping an eye on the numbers.
Disappointing as it was almost at zero a couple of weeks ago I think!

 

 

That's why I was wondering what's happened and where about  in Midlothian.

[Seymour M Hersh]

26 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just listening to the radio and they said this;

 

The number of flights to land in the UK from India since the travel ban a fortnight ago is.........110!

 

one hundred and ten flights. since a travel ban. in two weeks.

 

 

I hear Australia has the Indian variant. I thought their borders have been completely locked down. 

Edited May 18, 2021 by Seymour M Hersh

[JimmyCant]

18 hours ago, Sow Easy said:

You don't jump the queue. Maybe find that out first before coming in like an arse. 

If only you knew what I know mate huh ?

[Victorian]

I think the concern being expressed about a peak of hospitalisations is based on the belief / theory that a large number of the unvaccinated adult population (approx 20 million) will acquire infection from the suspected faster spreading variant amidst the current opening up with much less or virtually no social distancing and over a relatively short period of time.  All based on the theory that it is indeed around 50% more transmissible.  Consequently that a very small percentage will suffer a sufficently severe enough illness to require hospital treatment.  Also add in the known percentage of the vaccinated 70% who do not benefit from an immune response.  I think the belief is that an essentially free acting virus could hospitalise more people over a short time as many,  many more people will have the virus than at any time during the previous 14 months when there was social distancing,  lockdowns and/or a previously slower spreading virus.

 

I've seen it said that this wouldn't even be a consideration if the faster spreading variant had come along a bit further down the process of vaccination.  Also that the big opening up would have been much easier alongside the slower spreading variants.  It has all been factored in and deemed safe.  Some of the advisors are now concerned that the unlock + faster spreading variant has profoundly changed their calculations.

 

Read between the lines.  The PM and other politicians are saying they'll have more definite answers in a few days or weeks.  This indicates that the findings regarding how quickly this variant spreads is the key piece of information.  It takes time for the epidemiology work to work out that answer.  To separate out the effects of the initially imported cases from the subsequent community transmission.

 

My current hunch is still that they'll downgrade how quickly it spreads.

[Nucky Thompson]

2 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

That's why I was wondering what's happened and where about  in Midlothian.

Putting it in perspective, there were only 29 cases in the whole of NHS Lothian yesterday. Meanwhile there was 138 cases in greater Glasgow.

 

[SectionDJambo]

Just now, Nucky Thompson said:

Putting it in perspective, there were only 29 cases in the whole of NHS Lothian yesterday. Meanwhile there was 138 cases in greater Glasgow.

 

And yet the SG is saying that an announcement on Midlothian will be part of Surgeon's report later this week.

[JimmyCant]

8 hours ago, Dazo said:

But that wasn’t what the link posted was about so it’s pretty irrelevant. It was for eligible people to check for an appointment if they haven’t received their letter. Judging the state of lothians missing letters carry on it was a good link for @Sow Easy to post. 

Missing letters was one week back in March. Hasn’t happened to any great extent since. The missing appointment form is open to abuse because of the way they are managed, and they ARE being abused. You’ll just need to trust me on that

[milky_26]

12 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I hear Australia has the Indian variant. I thought their borders have been completely locked down. 

their borders are not completely locked down, they started repatriation flights a few days ago

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57126041

[Seymour M Hersh]

24 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

their borders are not completely locked down, they started repatriation flights a few days ago

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57126041

 

fair do's Milky. A bit like the UK then. Mind you AZ are saying their vaccine is 97% effective against the Indian variant so I'm not sure why there is so much excitement. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 hours ago, Brighton Jambo said:

I’ve just watched an interview on Sky news where one of the experts was saying we are opening up too soon, no one should be travelling and that no major indoor mixing should happen until everyone has been vaccinated.

 

It was interesting to see the presenter, in a very clear shift of emphasis from previous questioning, really push back to say we need to start living with some risk as we do with other things and that at some point the economy does need to be a consideration.  It was very refreshing.

 

Then the expert said if we carry on as expected the hospitalisation numbers will be worse than January.  With 70% of adults in the UK having one vaccine and 40% having both doses, and them being the most vulnerable, how on earth do they arrive at that figure.  I just fundamentally don’t understand how that can be their conclusions.

I think by now,  Brighton,  we have seen through the scientific computer modelling and the ridiculous projections they make. Only a week or 2 ago they had to row back on their 3rd wave scaremongering for the summer. But, still,  they keep churning them out. Common sense tells you that it is absolute nonsense to suggest that hospital admissions will be anything like January. At some point, the govt is going to have to grow a pair, accept that the virus varies, there will always be "cases" but life goes on. Perhaps, instead of headlines about Indian variants spreading,  we could hear about the Kent variant disappearing.

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

55 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I hear Australia has the Indian variant. I thought their borders have been completely locked down. 

Which is why talk about closing borders earlier and adding India to the red list earlier is pure politicking.  You can't seal your borders completely to keep out variants. The Indian one was identified here in March so if it's going to spread, it will.

[JimmyCant]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Apparently, 30 prisoners have COVID at Saughton according to Reporting Scotland. No staff have tested positive. 

At least they’ll not moan their tits off about a lockdown

[Dazo]

53 minutes ago, JimmyCant said:

Missing letters was one week back in March. Hasn’t happened to any great extent since. The missing appointment form is open to abuse because of the way they are managed, and they ARE being abused. You’ll just need to trust me on that

I don’t doubt the system is being abused. The vulnerable are done so as long as people get vaccinated it isn’t the worst thing to happen. 

[JimmyCant]

10 minutes ago, Dazo said:

I don’t doubt the system is being abused. The vulnerable are done so as long as people get vaccinated it isn’t the worst thing to happen. 

The vulnerable are NOT all done. There are loads of lost souls wandering about in the ether still struggling to get on the appointments list, still waiting for housebound jabs yet we’re marching on through the 30’s with the 20’s starting mid/late June. 30,000 people fallen through the cracks and can’t get back on because of the pace the government demands (above all don’t fall behind England). A 2 week pause in this daft run to the tape would have fixed all of that. We’ll get to August/September before some folks who really need the jab actually get it.

Edited May 18, 2021 by JimmyCant

[manaliveits105]

48 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I think by now,  Brighton,  we have seen through the scientific computer modelling and the ridiculous projections they make. Only a week or 2 ago they had to row back on their 3rd wave scaremongering for the summer. But, still,  they keep churning them out. Common sense tells you that it is absolute nonsense to suggest that hospital admissions will be anything like January. At some point, the govt is going to have to grow a pair, accept that the virus varies, there will always be "cases" but life goes on. Perhaps, instead of headlines about Indian variants spreading,  we could hear about the Kent variant disappearing.

 

It was probably that Professor Scally on sky - good god he is a miserable bar steward 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

2 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I hear Australia has the Indian variant. I thought their borders have been completely locked down. 

In quarantine.

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I think by now,  Brighton,  we have seen through the scientific computer modelling and the ridiculous projections they make. Only a week or 2 ago they had to row back on their 3rd wave scaremongering for the summer. But, still,  they keep churning them out. Common sense tells you that it is absolute nonsense to suggest that hospital admissions will be anything like January. At some point, the govt is going to have to grow a pair, accept that the virus varies, there will always be "cases" but life goes on. Perhaps, instead of headlines about Indian variants spreading,  we could hear about the Kent variant disappearing.

 

👍

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Which is why talk about closing borders earlier and adding India to the red list earlier is pure politicking.  You can't seal your borders completely to keep out variants. The Indian one was identified here in March so if it's going to spread, it will.

True . Only takes one person

to get the ball rolling . The Indian variant theme is a ruse to get people who are reluctant to take the vaccine to get it ! It’s so transparent 

[Enzo Chiefo]

22 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

👍

True . Only takes one person

to get the ball rolling . The Indian variant theme is a ruse to get people who are reluctant to take the vaccine to get it ! It’s so transparent 

Yes, a lot of what is done is so transparent.  It's not difficult to see the pattern here. Most scientists don't want us unlocked and as soon as restrictions are on the point of being eased, these models are produced and the scaremongering starts.  There is still no conclusive evidence of any increased transmissibility with the Indian strain and real world data studies from India, indicate that the vaccine is very effective against it. Hopefully,  Boris has seen through them too.

[JudyJudyJudy]

28 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, a lot of what is done is so transparent.  It's not difficult to see the pattern here. Most scientists don't want us unlocked and as soon as restrictions are on the point of being eased, these models are produced and the scaremongering starts.  There is still no conclusive evidence of any increased transmissibility with the Indian strain and real world data studies from India, indicate that the vaccine is very effective against it. Hopefully,  Boris has seen through them too.

I hope so ! 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 hour ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

In quarantine.

 

 

 

Will it stay there? 

[The Mighty Thor]

1 hour ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

In quarantine.

 

 

Apparently the 8,000 + individuals who have rocked up from India in the last fortnight haven't had to quarantine in hotels for 2 weeks. 

 

I've no idea how this variant is getting a foothold in the community. None at all. 

[heartsfc_fan]

Got my vaccine next Friday at Ingliston. Anyone any idea what they are giving the under 40s there?

Not particularly bothered what vaccine I get, just more curious.

[DETTY29]

5 minutes ago, heartsfc_fan said:

Got my vaccine next Friday at Ingliston. Anyone any idea what they are giving the under 40s there?

Not particularly bothered what vaccine I get, just more curious.

If you are under 40, you will get Pfeizer, or less likely Moderna, but not AZ.

Edited May 18, 2021 by DETTY29

[heartsfc_fan]

9 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

If you are under 40, you will get Pfeizer, or less likely Moderna, but not AZ.

👍

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

2 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Apparently the 8,000 + individuals who have rocked up from India in the last fortnight haven't had to quarantine in hotels for 2 weeks. 

 

I've no idea how this variant is getting a foothold in the community. None at all. 

Are you talking about Australia or the UK? If it is Australia you are talking absolute pish.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

2 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Will it stay there? 

Nothing is guaranteed but given the daily testing of those working in quarantine, there are strong indicators of a leak which then either lead to some restrictions for a couple of weeks (Greater Sydney recently) or sharp lockdowns for 3 days (Perth a couple of weeks ago). They are a PITA but they tend to stop them and fizzle them out. Everyone is extra paranoid over what happened here almost a year ago when quarantine was lax and it leaked out causing our second wave.

[The Mighty Thor]

5 hours ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

Are you talking about Australia or the UK? If it is Australia you are talking absolute pish.

UK.

 

I've no idea what's happening in Australia but our shit show trumps yours by levels of magnitude.