Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

13 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

Okay, for the hard of thinking:

 

Larger population = More deaths

 

not sure who’s ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ but you’ve just been hit with the very common this number is bigger than this number therefore I’m right argument

 

no adjustments no context

 

interesting to see if your population growth adjustment is acknowledged as valid whether it tips the right/wrong answer or not

 

 

 

 

 

[Don Dan]

or, older sicker population catching Covid19 = More deaths. 

[DETTY29]

32 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

 

 

We then spent a few billion on pop up covid hospitals all over the UK that were mothballed before the paint had dried. Explain that please.

No staff to cover anyway so yes a waste.

 

But it is very simple.

 

They were not needed because DUE TO TOUGH LOCKDOWN measures (as we saw what could happen as in Italy), we not only controlled the virus, damn well nearly eliminated it but of course to the detriment of other health services immediately and further down the line.  (But letting it run rampant would be far, far, worse)

 

But we ****** that up too by releasing restrictions far too early without about half a dozen measures being in place. 

 

- Closed borders

- Test, Track Trace

-Lack of self isolation compliance

-No plan to fully lockdown communities when the virus is prevelant again. 

- No measures such as UBI to encourage self isolation

(And none of these properly in place yet)

 

Apparently the PM is pushing for an Easter style relaxation due to the vaccine and a long Easter weekend holiday for all of us to look forward to.  It's got disaster written all over it, again.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by DETTY29

[DETTY29]

43 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

 

 

The NHS has limited staff due to forced isolation. That is the cause.

Lack of staffing because of self isolation is a consequence of the virus.

 

The virus itself is the root cause.

 

That is the key fundamental the govt hasn't been able to explain to the population and itself properly tackle.

Edited January 20, 2021 by DETTY29

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

21 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

No staff to cover anyway so yes a waste.

 

But it is very simple.

 

They were not needed because DUE TO TOUGH LOCKDOWN measures (as we saw what could happen as in Italy), we not only controlled the virus, damn well nearly eliminated it but of course to the detriment of other health services immediately and further down the line.  (But letting it run rampant would be far, far, worse)

 

But we ****** that up too by releasing restrictions far too early without about half a dozen measures being in place. 

 

- Closed borders

- Test, Track Trace

-Lack of self isolation compliance

-No plan to fully lockdown communities when the virus is prevelant again. 

- No measures such as UBI to encourage self isolation

(And none of these properly in place yet)

 

Apparently the PM is pushing for an Easter style relaxation due to the vaccine and a long Easter weekend holiday for all of us to look forward to.  It's got disaster written all over it, again.

 

 

 

 

 

“but it is very simple “

 

exactly the turn of phrase when discussing something this complex to undermine anything that follows (irrespective of how good or bad)

 

 

[DETTY29]

5 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

“but it is very simple “

 

exactly the turn of phrase when discussing something this complex to undermine anything that follows (irrespective of how good or bad)

 

 

Haha.

 

That was an add on I put in after I'd typed out, but not initially sent.

 

The number of times I've read posts on here and went 'all you are doing is looking at a moment in time data figure to support whatever your stance is, but not looked at the end to end picture, or ignore.

 

Cheers.

 

👍

[heartstastic]

This article sums up where most of the populations heads are at. Same old tactics used by those in power and most fall for it time after time.

 

I would expect most to be in denial about it though and attack the man or messenger instead.

 

 

https://academyofideas.com/2015/11/fear-and-social-control/

 

 

 

[heartstastic]

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/stanford-study-lockdowns-have-no-significant-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-may-even-spread-it

 

https://www.bitchute.com/video/b7xVLXTGyKtf/

 

Lockdowns don't work other than short temporary measures. Should be obvious to anyone with common sense and rationale.

[i8hibsh]

5 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

or, older sicker population catching Covid19 = More deaths. 

 

 

Of course. Hence, Africa has not been hit as hard as one would think.

[i8hibsh]

5 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

Lack of staffing because of self isolation is a consequence of the virus.

 

The virus itself is the root cause.

 

That is the key fundamental the govt hasn't been able to explain to the population and itself properly tackle.

 

 

In my opinion it is a consequence of propoganda.

[i8hibsh]

We should have put the shutters down on our borders back in February last year. 

[ri Alban]

10 hours ago, Adam_the_legend said:

what’s that by % of population?

It's 15x more , with only 10x population difference. And climbing. 

Anyway, this is pish patter,  but if others want to come the *£## so will I. 

[ri Alban]

6 hours ago, i8hibsh said:

 

 

Are you aware the UK population increases by approx 400k per year? There are approx 2 million plus more people in the UK than in 2015.

 

We see spikes all the time. 1985 I believe was a particularly bad year. There are no red flags at all in this death toll. 

 

Here is a pandemic....1918. World population of 1.9 billion and the world saw 50 million plus deaths in that year alone.  This is approx the same amount as modern times with a global population almost 4 fold.

A few million left last year due to brexit. 

[ri Alban]

6 hours ago, i8hibsh said:

 

 

Hear'say. 

 

 

You could argue that lockdown mark 3 proves the actions are doing **** all.

No, not closing the borders allowed it run rampant last summer and the more it runs the more it mutates. 

Pity the scientists dismissed asymmetric carriers and gave the government the go ahead to put people into care home etc... 

 

As for your concussion, you went to hospital for a wee head knock. You must have visited hospital 1000s of times down the years. 

 

Oh you said you don't do social media or jkb much anymore. Well, stop getting banned. 

 

 

Trump, Tory, Brexit, and Robinson, now I see why you get concussion. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

6 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

No staff to cover anyway so yes a waste.

 

But it is very simple.

 

They were not needed because DUE TO TOUGH LOCKDOWN measures (as we saw what could happen as in Italy), we not only controlled the virus, damn well nearly eliminated it but of course to the detriment of other health services immediately and further down the line.  (But letting it run rampant would be far, far, worse)

 

But we ****** that up too by releasing restrictions far too early without about half a dozen measures being in place. 

 

- Closed borders

- Test, Track Trace

-Lack of self isolation compliance

-No plan to fully lockdown communities when the virus is prevelant again. 

- No measures such as UBI to encourage self isolation

(And none of these properly in place yet)

 

Apparently the PM is pushing for an Easter style relaxation due to the vaccine and a long Easter weekend holiday for all of us to look forward to.  It's got disaster written all over it, again.

 

 

 

 

But why are they not being used now? London, apparently,  is in an emergency situation , according to Sadiq Khan, and there is/was talk of airlifting passengers to other hospitals.  Yet, the Nightingale, at the weekend, saw only 8 (EIGHT) patients.  They are shortly opening up again to a maximum of 1.5% capacity for NON Covid patients only. It's a farcical situation.  They cite lack of staff.  OK, but in all the planning did nobody forsee staffing problems?  We are fed a daily diet of being told how overwhelmed the NHS is, although that does happen every winter, yet the release valve cannot operate for whatever reason. It's ludicrous.  When all this is over , the NHS needs a non-political root and branch efficiency review about how it operates and how it's funded. Looking at the far more successful German hybrid public/private model would be a start.

[CavySlaveJambo]

9 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Saga cruises say that all passengers must have had the covid vaccine before they will be allowed to sail with them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55738918

 

I can see other companies going down this route as well.

 

All the cruise lines are talking about going down this route already.  

[JudyJudyJudy]

7 hours ago, heartstastic said:

This article sums up where most of the populations heads are at. Same old tactics used by those in power and most fall for it time after time.

 

I would expect most to be in denial about it though and attack the man or messenger instead.

 

 

https://academyofideas.com/2015/11/fear-and-social-control/

 

 

 

Excellent article . It always amazes me his every day Germans didn’t rebel against Nazism . This article explains why ! We are not far off that sociological situation 

3 hours ago, heartstastic said:

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/stanford-study-lockdowns-have-no-significant-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-may-even-spread-it

 

https://www.bitchute.com/video/b7xVLXTGyKtf/

 

Lockdowns don't work other than short temporary measures. Should be obvious to anyone with common sense and rationale.

Interesting regarding sage and their admittance regarding lockdowns 

1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

Staff isolating and catching Covid puts extra pressure on staffing levels, that’s another thing hopefully the vaccine will help Improve quickly. 

I have had to self isolate due to being in close contact with another patient in hospital last Tuesday . He was in close contact with a variety of nurses , auxiliaries, surgeons s so I wonder if there are all off work ? Maybe but maybe they have had the vaccine 

[Victorian]

I'm hoping one of the "sensible sceptics" will be kind enough to provide some data from a previous pandemic + no lockdown to feed into some of the Sesame Street comparisons that are going on.  You know... like... instead of using data from this pandemic + lockdown to try to argue against the very same lockdown that's limited the numbers to the level they are.

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Allegedly a production facility for Oxford vaccine is at risk of flooding due to the weather down south, 

 

I use term allegedly as it was reported Sun🤷🏻‍♂️

It never rains but it pours ! 😂

[Governor Tarkin]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Allegedly a production facility for Oxford vaccine is at risk of flooding due to the weather down south, 

 

I use term allegedly as it was reported Sun🤷🏻‍♂️

 

On the wireless too.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

3 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

His argument is scatter gun and lacks any logic. There were less deaths in 2020 according to him, but also the uk did worse than Africa due to population age even though we apparently didn’t have more deaths? It makes no sense. 
 

Have a guess about death numbers adjusted for population growth, an argument he added later, do you think he’s correct?

 

in order for the comparison to be meaningful as well as population growth age structure affects of lockdown (of which there are very varying opinions amongst the proper scientists) and various other factors would need to be allowed for or at least acknowledged

 

do you accept my numbers bigger than your number might not be a particularly good measure in some scenarios?

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

53 minutes ago, Victorian said:

I'm hoping one of the "sensible sceptics" will be kind enough to provide some data from a previous pandemic + no lockdown to feed into some of the Sesame Street comparisons that are going on.  You know... like... instead of using data from this pandemic + lockdown to try to argue against the very same lockdown that's limited the numbers to the level they are.

 

 

 

The +/- lockdown adjustment on its own sounds a bit Sesame Street to be honest - apologies if you meant to take into account other stuff too

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by MoncurMacdonaldMercer

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

The +/- lockdown adjustment on its own sounds a bit Sesame Street to be honest - apologies if you meant to take into account other stuff too

 

 

Evasion of the basic point.  Lockdown alchemists employ the lockdown derived data to argue against lockdown.  It's not much removed from someone returning to their house to find the fire brigade have just put out a fire and telling them to bugger off 'cos it's no more on fire than it was yesterday.

[Justin Z]

I didn't know Arnie read JKB

 

 

What's his name on here? 👀

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Justin Z

[Taffin]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Evasion of the basic point.  Lockdown alchemists employ the lockdown derived data to argue against lockdown.  It's not much removed from someone returning to their house to find the fire brigade have just put out a fire and telling them to bugger off 'cos it's no more on fire than it was yesterday.

 

If they had come as part of a campaign to extinguish every candle with a water cannon because 1 in 100 of those ended up in a house fire, then yes, I'd tell them to bugger off and suggest they advise those burning their houses down with a candle to take more care.

[Taffin]

5 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

I didn't know Arnie read JKB

 

 

 

Good track record with injections has Arnie...

[Justin Z]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

Good track record with injections has Arnie...

 

Nor limited to injections!

 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

If they had come as part of a campaign to extinguish every candle with a water cannon because 1 in 100 of those ended up in a house fire, then yes, I'd tell them to bugger off and suggest they advise those burning their houses down with a candle to take more care.

 

And if the 1% of candle ignited house fires happened all at the same time?  Great for the home owners who had Fireman Sam to come to the rescue.  Not so great for the one's left waiting in the 999 telephone queue.

[Governor Tarkin]

14 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

I didn't know Arnie read JKB

 

 

 

What's his name on here? 👀

 

 

I ****ing love Arnie.

[Taffin]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

And if the 1% of candle ignited house fires happened all at the same time?  Great for the home owners who had Fireman Sam to come to the rescue.  Not so great for the one's left waiting in the 999 telephone queue.

 

Then there'd be a few people with an uninhabitable home due to fire, but a lot less than would be left with an uninhabitable home if we pre-emptively saturated every home with water first.

 

[Justin Z]

9 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Then there'd be a few people with an uninhabitable home due to fire, but a lot less than would be left with an uninhabitable home if we pre-emptively saturated every home with water first.

 

 

This conversation string went off the rails well before this, but I gotta say, you've well and truly come up with a belter of an exaggerated analogy in this particular piece of it

[i8hibsh]

3 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Here is a simple explanation of excess deaths based on previous five years rates. 
 

Covid in Scotland: Peacetime excess deaths highest since 1891 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

 

 

 

Two things:

 

1. The BBC are a disgrace on every level.  Even looking at their sensationalist main picture there of a man in a mask carrying a coffin.  Seriously this propoganda is nothing short of criminal.

 

2.  I make reference again to population size as these are numbers and not rates you cite.  We have the largest population ever in Scotland.  At no time in our history has our population been bigger.  These 'excess' deaths are small in comparison to decades ago.  Saying 5,000 people died in excess of the normal trend in 1941 and 7,000 people died of the normal trend in 2020 is a ****ing absurdity.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

30 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Evasion of the basic point.  Lockdown alchemists employ the lockdown derived data to argue against lockdown.  It's not much removed from someone returning to their house to find the fire brigade have just put out a fire and telling them to bugger off 'cos it's no more on fire than it was yesterday.

 

Sesame Street reply

 

ignorance will full or otherwise of the complexities of these comparisons even to get approximate numbers is very Sesame Street - real scientists find it difficult to quantify and agree for example the affects of lockdown that’s just one of many things inherent in these numbers

 

sesame street - good description - well done - you come out with a few funny ones now and then

 

[Victorian]

Just now, Taffin said:

 

Then there'd be a few people with an uninhabitable home due to fire, but a lot less than would be left with an uninhabitable home if we pre-emptively saturated every home with water first.

 

 

Then again the NHS isn't being asked to pre-emptively save the lives of every person,  are they?  Only the ones who present at hospital with covid.  

 

No lockdown = people being denied access to a hospital.  Always was.  Still is.

[i8hibsh]

This lockdown has taught and confirmed to me 10 things:

 

1.  People are bigger ***** than I once thought.

2. I absolutely despise dogs.  

3. So many people do not own their own thoughts.

4.  People like submission.

5. People like being controlled.

6. Boris and the 'new' Tories are ***** like all other parties.  Roll on Farage's party.

7. Devolution is an even worse idea than I once thought.

8. The BBC is not worth the steam of my pish (I finally cancelled).

9. Public sector staff seem to think they levitate above us all.

10. I despise Nicola Sturgeon, Humza, the Dentist and all those who circle round more than anything on the planet.

 

[manaliveits105]

41 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Allegedly a production facility for Oxford vaccine is at risk of flooding due to the weather down south, 

 

I use term allegedly as it was reported Sun🤷🏻‍♂️

Its ok Phillip Schofield said its fine now (and Holly has nice stilettos on today btw )

[Justin Z]

14 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

This lockdown has taught and confirmed to me 10 things:

 

1.  People are bigger ***** than I once thought.

2. I absolutely despise dogs.  

3. So many people do not own their own thoughts.

4.  People like submission.

5. People like being controlled.

6. Boris and the 'new' Tories are ***** like all other parties.  Roll on Farage's party.

7. Devolution is an even worse idea than I once thought.

8. The BBC is not worth the steam of my pish (I finally cancelled).

9. Public sector staff seem to think they levitate above us all.

10. I despise Nicola Sturgeon, Humza, the Dentist and all those who circle round more than anything on the planet.

 

 

A brief glimpse into a delusional, hateful mind.

[i8hibsh]

3 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

A brief glimpse into a delusional, hateful mind.

 

 

Ah, only you can hate, right, I just hate the 'wrong' people.

 

Got you

 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

Sesame Street reply

 

ignorance will full or otherwise of the complexities of these comparisons even to get approximate numbers is very Sesame Street - real scientists find it difficult to quantify and agree for example the affects of lockdown that’s just one of many things inherent in these numbers

 

sesame street - good description - well done - you come out with a few funny ones now and then

 

 

Further evasion of the premise.  Provide data to demonstrate what the numbers would be if lockdown was not in place.  Only that sort of data is relevant in any comparison.

 

The premise (again).  Lockdown is responsible for the current data.  Remove lockdown and the data can only be worse.  Much worse.  Suppression is all about limiting flow of demand on NHS resources.  Remove the limiting factor and you get significant excess demand that cannot be met by resources.

 

In stark terms that means people dying untended at home.  In ambulances.  In corridors.  

[Doogz]

I don't really want to get into a debate about lockdowns as it's obviously not a black or white issue.

From bbc article about Glasgow Queen Elizabeth Uni Hospital:

 

Dr Alan Whitelaw, who runs the department, says that while there might be fewer patients coming through his door, there are no longer any "easy wins".

"Those that are coming are the sick people," he says. "We are undoubtedly seeing the effects of people not seeking healthcare for six to 10 months.

 

"We are seeing disease that we wouldn't always see and we are seeing it further down the road.

"We are making more diagnoses that potentially would be made in primary care or outpatient clinics. On top of that we've got lots of Covid patients coming through the door.

"So it is those two things together that currently put the NHS under that significant pressure."

 

[Governor Tarkin]

19 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

A brief glimpse into a delusional, hateful mind.

 

Doesn't make him a bad person.

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Further evasion of the premise.  Provide data to demonstrate what the numbers would be if lockdown was not in place.  Only that sort of data is relevant in any comparison.

 

The premise (again).  Lockdown is responsible for the current data.  Remove lockdown and the data can only be worse.  Much worse.  Suppression is all about limiting flow of demand on NHS resources.  Remove the limiting factor and you get significant excess demand that cannot be met by resources.

 

In stark terms that means people dying untended at home.  In ambulances.  In corridors.  

 

i don’t need to provide data because I’m not the one who’s trying to quantify the effects of lockdown - quite opposite I’m acknowledging that when real scientists find it difficult to quantify it then it would be very difficult for me to do in the context of comparing some scenarios

 

you seem comfortable to reach conclusions like “much worse” - that’s sounds like you have quantified it on some level  although the definition of “much worse” in mathematical terms is absent

 

just to be clear I’m not anti-lockdown neither are my portfolio of (not the science) scientists they recognise it has its uses and this debate is around the oversimplification of comparisons fundamentally

 

 

[i8hibsh]

Just now, Doogz said:

I don't really want to get into a debate about lockdowns as it's obviously not a black or white issue.

From bbc article about Glasgow Queen Elizabeth Uni Hospital:

 

Dr Alan Whitelaw, who runs the department, says that while there might be fewer patients coming through his door, there are no longer any "easy wins".

"Those that are coming are the sick people," he says. "We are undoubtedly seeing the effects of people not seeking healthcare for six to 10 months.

 

"We are seeing disease that we wouldn't always see and we are seeing it further down the road.

"We are making more diagnoses that potentially would be made in primary care or outpatient clinics. On top of that we've got lots of Covid patients coming through the door.

"So it is those two things together that currently put the NHS under that significant pressure."

 

 

It is a most serious issue being completely overlooked by not only our governent but the general public also.  People are just utterly obsessed with covid they have completely lost sight of the 99% other serious damaging shit going on in the world.

[Enzo Chiefo]

33 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

And if the 1% of candle ignited house fires happened all at the same time?  Great for the home owners who had Fireman Sam to come to the rescue.  Not so great for the one's left waiting in the 999 telephone queue.

And how often does that happen? What if pre-Covid, everyone in London needed an ambulance at the same time? Covid has been used  through persistent messaging and scaremongering, to instill a notion that society should somehow be risk averse. 

 

 

[i8hibsh]

For anyone who has phoned that waste of space abomination that is 'NHS 24' recently they will know how inconsequential everyhting else in life is right now outside of covid to the NHS.

[Justin Z]

2 minutes ago, i8hibsh said:

It is a most serious issue being completely overlooked by not only our governent but the general public also.  People are just utterly obsessed with covid they have completely lost sight of the 99% other serious damaging shit going on in the world.

 

While you've proven time and again your inability to hold more than one thought in your head at a time, it doesn't mean the rest of us are incapable of it.

[Doogz]

1 minute ago, i8hibsh said:

 

It is a most serious issue being completely overlooked by not only our governent but the general public also.  People are just utterly obsessed with covid they have completely lost sight of the 99% other serious damaging shit going on in the world.

It's obviously a hugely serious issue and the quotes from the article I referenced to seem to indicate that we haven't got the balance right: however I don't have enough information to know if that's just due to the lockdown rules or the general publics reaction to the news & the "protect the NHS" message.

[Beni]

6 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

i don’t need to provide data because I’m not the one who’s trying to quantify the effects of lockdown - quite opposite I’m acknowledging that when real scientists find it difficult to quantify it then it would be very difficult for me to do in the context of comparing some scenarios

 

you seem comfortable to reach conclusions like “much worse” - that’s sounds like you have quantified it on some level  although the definition of “much worse” in mathematical terms is absent

 

just to be clear I’m not anti-lockdown neither are my portfolio of (not the science) scientists they recognise it has its uses and this debate is around the oversimplification of comparisons fundamentally

 

 

 

New Zealand had very few Covid deaths but they did have a lockdown, during which their excess deaths fell.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext 

 

An inconvenient truth?

 

Who are your portfolio of scientists?

 

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

36 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

New Zealand had very few Covid deaths but they did have a lockdown, during which their excess deaths fell.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext 

 

An inconvenient truth?

 

Who are your portfolio of scientists?

 

 

 

 

 

at least one of them have been very keen to try and educate people on the difference between the hard lockdown close the borders etc lockdown and the likes of the uk lockdown

 

they've also been keen to point out the oversimplification of just because one country has some characteristics in common with another country 1 or 2 or however many might not be enough to say a similar hard lockdown would have similar affects - further complexities may need addressed

 

like the debate we had before it’s about scale/how fundamental the affects could be in the context of a comparison

 

and again just be clear I’m not saying the answer is x or y I’m just debating whether folk who do appear to think they have answers are comfortable they are correct and appropriate 

 

to encourage research i’ll keep my portfolio private

 

 

 

[DETTY29]

That is a big commitment from John Swinney that all 70s+ (that want to be or can be) will be vaccinated by mid February.

 

There has been a bit of dubiety across UK whether that means 'done' or offered an appointment'