Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[DETTY29]

England, no more reasoning by Police on house parties.

[Don Dan]

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, Boy Daniel said:

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

[obua]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

The latest 7-day per-capita rates around the councils. I've also added some general nationwide stats to the end - this feature might persist or not.

 

			7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Previous	Today	Yesterday			19 Jan	18 Jan	17 Jan	16 Jan	15 Jan	...	20 Dec
Scotland			203	204	-1		209	222	229	239	240	...	98
North Lanarkshire	4	3	315	291	+24		303	327	342	352	357	...	119
Renfrewshire	4	3	312	310	+2		294	306	314	328	324	...	116
Glasgow City	4	3	301	303	-2		314	344	360	365	363	...	129
Clackmannanshire	4	3	283	283	0		281	277	270	264	264	...	148
North Ayrshire	4	3	269	274	-5		266	289	300	305	289	...	175
East Ayrshire	4	3	265	262	+3		260	275	283	293	276	...	153
Inverclyde	4	2	263	276	-13		284	290	294	342	370	...	59
East Dunbartonshire	4	3	250	252	-2		272	273	287	297	305	...	70
South Lanarkshire	4	3	246	245	+1		264	271	274	280	278	...	120
West Dunbartonshire	4	3	242	237	+5		246	246	259	272	277	...	120
Dumfries & Galloway	4	1	240	247	-7		255	279	289	314	297	...	32
Falkirk	4	2	231	223	+8		211	227	239	239	231	...	60
South Ayrshire	4	3	217	223	-6		228	244	246	241	226	...	98
Dundee City	4	3	209	210	-1		228	235	237	256	261	...	113
Aberdeen City	4	3	195	223	-28		226	244	244	257	257	...	163
East Renfrewshire	4	3	182	179	+3		185	208	204	201	203	...	101
Angus	4	2	174	167	+7		158	158	170	182	176	...	37
Na h-Eileanan Siar	3	1	165	180	-15		165	157	105	105	52	...	22
Stirling Moss	4	3	165	151	+14		151	148	146	150	138	...	70
Perth and Kinross	4	3	153	159	-6		158	168	184	217	222	...	126
Fife	4	3	152	157	-5		169	175	177	189	196	...	97
West Lothian	4	3	146	135	+11		143	156	155	159	166	...	83
Scottish Borders	4	1	139	137	+2		138	164	171	197	213	...	85
Edinburgh City	4	3	129	130	-1		136	147	150	162	170	...	109
Moray	4	1	128	137	-9		125	105	101	120	118	...	13
Aberdeenshire	4	3	126	137	-11		140	152	156	158	174	...	88
Midlothian	4	3	123	122	+1		117	114	109	117	127	...	136
East Lothian	4	3	122	126	-4		124	121	112	105	99	...	148
Highland	4/3	1	106	120	-14		125	136	154	165	184	...	17
Shetland Islands	3	1	87	79	+8		79	87	74	74	83	...	0
Argyll and Bute	4/3	2	66	62	+4		64	75	89	90	86	...	29
Orkney Islands	3	1	36	36	0		27	18	13	13	18	...	0
Tests*			22191	21835	+356		21543	22161	22795	23468	23759	...	16839
Positivity rate % *			8.5	8.7	-0.2		9.1	9.3	9.3	9.4	10.1	...	5.2
Hospital (non-ICU)			1843	1847	-4		1839	1813	1771	1748	1740	...	1061
ICU			161	156	+5		150	146	147	145	141	...	58
Deaths*			56	52	+4		48	48	49	51	55	...	25
(*7-day-average)

 

 

 

Stirling Moss, I’m looking out for your add ons now.👍

[William H. Bonney]

6 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

One person hides in the attic when the old bill pop round. 

[redjambo]

Just now, obua said:

Stirling Moss, I’m looking out for your add ons now.👍

 

[The Mighty Thor]

53 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Unlikely hospitality to be opened in England by May.

I believe our 16 day circuit break from October finishes around then. 

[manaliveits105]

Edinburgh heading down towards pre Christmas level - fingers crossed 

[DETTY29]

8 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I believe our 16 day circuit break from October finishes around then. 

If it was that simple.........

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

Edinburgh heading down towards pre Christmas level - fingers crossed 

Its irrelevant as she/ SG  wont open up anything . I dont even look at the stats now to be honest.  

[Victorian]

15 minutes ago, jonesy said:

The thing around this newer, more hardcore lockdown is that by implementing these policies now, they are effectively saying they failed the first time round. In a high stakes game like public health policy and the economy, failures shouldn't be allowed a second go. The lot of them, in Edinburgh and London, should fall on their swords and some form of coalition put in place to direct things until the summer, at which point full elections can be held.

 

Not necessarily and questionable logic.  What you call failure could also be described as an unsuccessful attempt to strike balances and/or be proportionate.  There wasn't much of a frame of reference to guide the policies that followed a brand new event.

 

Bin them and other others take over?  Fine if there's a reasonable prospect that the others would be better,  or more successful,  or luckier would do.  Is there such a prospect?  Is there any factor of counter-productivity in throwing new people in at the deep end?

 

No.  The failures will come home to roost later.  There doesn't appear to be much logic to gambling on new personnel in a crisis. *

 

* what I am now naming 'The Levein-Stendel Doctrine' 

 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Put Stendel in charge of the pandemic response. We'd be in the pubs by February. 20 pint minimum. Hangovers worse than CV19.

 

Full marks for lateral thinking.

 

[Nucky Thompson]

If the vaccines don't work as well as they think and also don't stop transmission, how much longer can the country afford to stay in lockdown?

 

[pablo]

 

Edinburgh continuing to see a good downward trend. Actually nearly all local authority areas improving. On the downside I did see a list of vaccination rates that had Edinburgh at the very bottom on 3.85%

Edited January 21, 2021 by pablo

[NANOJAMBO]

30 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

No doubt because students  are returning to university. 

[Victorian]

9 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If the vaccines don't work as well as they think and also don't stop transmission, how much longer can the country afford to stay in lockdown?

 

 

A very important question.  My answer is not long.  A different approach would need to be adopted.  It would involve a campaign of open-ended vaccination.  Keep on vaccinating and vaccinating again.  Ideally mass antibody surveillance.  Mass antigen testing.  Brutally hard suppression of localised outbreaks.  Essentially we live with the virus and make it very,  very hard for the virus to live with us.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Victorian

[Weakened Offender]

37 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

 

What's the point? 15 people FFS. What do 14 people get fined? 

[TheOak88]

10 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If the vaccines don't work as well as they think and also don't stop transmission, how much longer can the country afford to stay in lockdown?

 

 

If the vaccines don’t work as well as hoped, probably be looking at lockdown measures for at least another 12-18 months I would imagine. 

[sadj]

39 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Fines of £800 for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people to be introduced in England from next week

Lol this will work well 14 people seshs it is then

[stevie]

Good to see numbers in the Lothians going in the right direction but WTF is going on through the west?

 

[Victorian]

Suggesting an upper ceiling of gathering seems like utter lunacy to be fair.  Even if it is a figure to base a more punitive sanction on rather than a lesser punishment.  

[Nucky Thompson]

12 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

 On the downside I did see a list of vaccination rates that had Edinburgh at the very bottom on 3.85%

Where was Glasgow South on the list 

[scott herbertson]

38 minutes ago, obua said:

Stirling Moss, I’m looking out for your add ons now.👍

 

 

I don't give a Stirling Moss for anything on the thread but Redjambo's update 🙂

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

I don't give a Stirling Moss for anything on the thread but Redjambo's update 🙂

This.

[Nucky Thompson]

8 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

If the vaccines don’t work as well as hoped, probably be looking at lockdown measures for at least another 12-18 months I would imagine. 

I don't think we could go that long. It would make the Great Depression look like an economic boom

[JudyJudyJudy]

20 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If the vaccines don't work as well as they think and also don't stop transmission, how much longer can the country afford to stay in lockdown?

 

Not long as surely the economy  cant be supported much longer than the end of March.  Itll be ruinous to borrow more and more.  Children and young people will be paying for this for decades. 

[Weakened Offender]

19 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Where was Glasgow South on the list 

 

🙄😁

[Victorian]

Any government,  especially a Tory government,  will not consider further economic damage if there's a practical alternative.  You can be fully assured that governments are acutely aware of the economic considerations.  At the very least the vaccines represent a very powerful weapon against the virus.  Low efficacy,  short lived protection,  no sterilising vaccination benefits (transmission) is not ideal but the vaccines would still be the big gun in the arsenal.  There needs to be a range of other tools to fill in the gaps.  Mass surveillance.  Overpowering localised suppression.  A toolbox of therapeutics and treatments.

 

There will be a future 'acceptable level of deaths' type of settlement.  The economy absolutely will be placed above that.

[the general]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

If we all just chip in £800 quid each plus a share of the £10,000 fine for the organiser, we can still go ahead though, yeah? 😛 

 

Or keep it at 14

[Enzo Chiefo]

30 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

If the vaccines don’t work as well as hoped, probably be looking at lockdown measures for at least another 12-18 months I would imagine. 

Which, in practice, is impossible. It would, effectively, be killing people in the name of "saving lives". The fact you are even suggesting it shows how far the population have been cowed by govts. In the event of vaccines not working as well as expected, most people would say feck it, if I catch it, I catch it. There would be thousands more deaths from lockdown than Covid would cause. File under "non-starter"

[Enzo Chiefo]

22 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Not long as surely the economy  cant be supported much longer than the end of March.  Itll be ruinous to borrow more and more.  Children and young people will be paying for this for decades. 

We need a final end date on furlough. 30th April or whatever and that's it. It would focus minds and restore a bit of common sense, perspective and logic to what has been a complete and utter shambles

[Beni]

2 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

again I’m not really looking to debate who’s portfolio of scientists are bigger or better than who’s or what they call right and what they call wrong as the complexity of the situation probably means they’ll all get stuff right and wrong at some point - that of course opens it up to people both thinking they’re wrong when they’re not due to misunderstanding and people highlighting in isolation where they actually are wrong but as I say in isolation 

 

if you believe your portfolio of scientists are better than mine then I’m happy to accept that in order to return to the original point

 

that point being - 2 numbers were compared and it appeared in some eyes the bigger number ‘won’

 

the ‘owner’ of the smaller number then highlighted a potential adjustment which I thought was valid but just to be clear may not have changed the overall outcome - the affect of that adjustment and many other potential valid adjustments one of which being lock-down I also raised as potential unknowns to the outcome

 

i wondered if anyone would accept even the initial population size adjustment as valid - I’m not sure if anyone has commented on it - do you want to comment? no bother if you don’t but that was the point I was involved in

 

From my calculations deaths in 2020 were 14% higher than 2015 and according to Worldometer the population has risen by 3% so...

 

As for how large a factor lockdown is in causing excess deaths, it's the final lifeboat available to the sceptics.

Last summer they said the pandemic is over, but when when positive tests went up they said it was all down to the faulty PCR test and it was just a 'casedemic', no need to worry hospital admissions won't rise. Then when hospital admissions rose they claimed it was a normal pattern of winter respiratory infections, but don't worry deaths won't rise. And when deaths rose they had to hurriedly find a reason (other than the obvious) so have now settled on lockdown causing  the excess deaths. You've been assiduously non committal, so I'm sure you never held any of these views.

 

I'm not interested in playing 'my scientist is better than your scientist', but I'm perfectly happy to cite where my information comes from, and on a discussion forum where most people seem to have no particular expertise I can't understand why you'd be reluctant to do the same.

Hiding your sources doesn't really do much for scientific discussion.

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

We need a final end date on furlough. 30th April or whatever and that's it. It would focus minds and restore a bit of common sense, perspective and logic to what has been a complete and utter shambles

 

This is a rather unfortunate latest chapter in a large volume of ill conceived notions.  What ignorance.  Cut off the financial support of job retention in the name of "common sense".  The economy will take time to restart and go through the gears towards full capacity.  Furlough will be needed to support jobs and prevent employers from going to the wall while the economic recovery rolls out.  Cut them all off at the knees for what?  Poor Enzo misses the pub and thinks that focused minds will have a bearing on what the scientific and medical future will present us with.

 

No wonder you get so much stick.

[Enzo Chiefo]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

It's essentially become just another social media binary divide to be shouted about. If you are in favour of lockdowns and restrictions you are 'following the science' and 'have compassion', while if you advocate opening up you are 'loony libertarian' and 'only driven by money'. Extended lockdowns are only going to exacerbate this tension.

 

The problem with the 'feck it but do your best to avoid spreading' approach - which I myself have largely taken - is that the more entrenched people become, and by extension, the governments will become in enforcing their restrictions (as we are seeing now), then it grinds to a standstill. In that case, government either folds or stands firm, taking down the economy on a point of principle  

Yes, I agree Jonesy. We can see now that lockdown fatigue is beginning to show. I go out early morning to pick up a paper and the traffic is as busy as ever. At a guess, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated the clamour to lift restrictions will become unstoppable.  By that time, we may well know that the vaccines stop transmission too, which will be a game changer. At any rate, worries about transmission among the rest of the population would not justify any significant restrictions. I have confidence that Johnson will lift restrictions at the earliest opportunity.  Sturgeon, unfortunately, is absolutely dining out on the power as are her scientific advisors like Leitch and that slaver Devi from Edi Uni.

[the general]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, I agree Jonesy. We can see now that lockdown fatigue is beginning to show. I go out early morning to pick up a paper and the traffic is as busy as ever. At a guess, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated the clamour to lift restrictions will become unstoppable.  By that time, we may well know that the vaccines stop transmission too, which will be a game changer. At any rate, worries about transmission among the rest of the population would not justify any significant restrictions. I have confidence that Johnson will lift restrictions at the earliest opportunity.  Sturgeon, unfortunately, is absolutely dining out on the power as are her scientific advisors like Leitch and that slaver Devi from Edi Uni.

 

Got to agree those 3 in particular seem to be revelling in it ...

[Brighton Jambo]

57 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

If the vaccines don’t work as well as hoped, probably be looking at lockdown measures for at least another 12-18 months I would imagine. 

That won’t happen, the economy couldn’t sustain it and the damage would be felt for generations.  If vaccines don’t work then the country needs to have a conversation about a death toll that is acceptable and a triage system for health care provision.  

[Weakened Offender]

11 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

This is a rather unfortunate latest chapter in a large volume of ill conceived notions.  What ignorance.  Cut off the financial support of job retention in the name of "common sense".  The economy will take time to restart and go through the gears towards full capacity.  Furlough will be needed to support jobs and prevent employers from going to the wall while the economic recovery rolls out.  Cut them all off at the knees for what?  Poor Enzo misses the pub and thinks that focused minds will have a bearing on what the scientific and medical future will present us with.

 

No wonder you get so much stick.

 

🏆

[Enzo Chiefo]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

This is a rather unfortunate latest chapter in a large volume of ill conceived notions.  What ignorance.  Cut off the financial support of job retention in the name of "common sense".  The economy will take time to restart and go through the gears towards full capacity.  Furlough will be needed to support jobs and prevent employers from going to the wall while the economic recovery rolls out.  Cut them all off at the knees for what?  Poor Enzo misses the pub and thinks that focused minds will have a bearing on what the scientific and medical future will present us with.

 

No wonder you get so much stick.

Poor Victorian struggles with economics and business fundamentals. Furlough should be a short term hand out to help pay staff salaries, not a way of life. Where do you think the money comes from? And who do you think will be paying it back for decades to come? Just for the record, there is no furlough scheme in the world that can replace what businesses need to survive; customers. Business owners still have to pay rent, utility bills and have other outgoings to cover. They need to open up to be able to trade, invest and employ staff, in turn, turning over a profit and paying the NI, VAT and corporation tax that funds the NHS we keep being told we have to "protect".

[manaliveits105]

1 hour ago, pablo said:

 

Edinburgh continuing to see a good downward trend. Actually nearly all local authority areas improving. On the downside I did see a list of vaccination rates that had Edinburgh at the very bottom on 3.85%

source ?

[sadj]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

It's essentially become just another social media binary divide to be shouted about. If you are in favour of lockdowns and restrictions you are 'following the science' and 'have compassion', while if you advocate opening up you are 'loony libertarian' and 'only driven by money'. Extended lockdowns are only going to exacerbate this tension.

 

The problem with the 'feck it but do your best to avoid spreading' approach - which I myself have largely taken - is that the more entrenched people become, and by extension, the governments will become in enforcing their restrictions (as we are seeing now), then it grinds to a standstill. In that case, government either folds or stands firm, taking down the economy on a point of principle  

Im maybe picking you up wrong but i read that as you will stand firm in your do what you want(while doing your best not to spread it) as that will force the government to either give in and let up the restrictions or **** the economy?

 

Surely the whole fact that the national debts are increasing could be resolved if the lovely people who lend the country money just said know what its cool we will not charge you for money borrowed from us to by all your governments during the pandemic

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

🏆

💤

[Weakened Offender]

7 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, I agree Jonesy. We can see now that lockdown fatigue is beginning to show. I go out early morning to pick up a paper and the traffic is as busy as ever. At a guess, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated the clamour to lift restrictions will become unstoppable.  By that time, we may well know that the vaccines stop transmission too, which will be a game changer. At any rate, worries about transmission among the rest of the population would not justify any significant restrictions. I have confidence that Johnson will lift restrictions at the earliest opportunity.  Sturgeon, unfortunately, is absolutely dining out on the power as are her scientific advisors like Leitch and that slaver Devi from Edi Uni.

 

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

💤

 

😁

[Enzo Chiefo]

8 minutes ago, the general said:

 

Got to agree those 3 in particular seem to be revelling in it ...

Yes, the TV appearances and attention seeking pronouncements seem to be a regular fix for them. A period of cold turkey would be welcomed by most.

[Brighton Jambo]

Just now, Enzo Chiefo said:

Poor Victorian struggles with economics and business fundamentals. Furlough should be a short term hand out to help pay staff salaries, not a way of life. Where do you think the money comes from? And who do you think will be paying it back for decades to come? Just for the record, there is no furlough scheme in the world that can replace what businesses need to survive; customers. Business owners still have to pay rent, utility bills and have other outgoings to cover. They need to open up to be able to trade, invest and employ staff, in turn, turning over a profit and paying the NI, VAT and corporation tax that funds the NHS we keep being told we have to "protect".

I don’t agree with everything you say on ending lockdown but the tax issue you mention at the end is absolutely the key to all this.

 

Unfortunately opening up the economy is now being positioned as typical Tory heartlessness but without a functioning economy the revenue needed to fund essential services, not least the NHS, simply disappears.

 

There is a limit to how much a country can borrow and how much debt it can realistically service.  

[Weakened Offender]

3 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

and attention seeking pronouncements 

 

 

Just leaving this here. 😊

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Poor Victorian struggles with economics and business fundamentals. Furlough should be a short term hand out to help pay staff salaries, not a way of life. Where do you think the money comes from? And who do you think will be paying it back for decades to come? Just for the record, there is no furlough scheme in the world that can replace what businesses need to survive; customers. Business owners still have to pay rent, utility bills and have other outgoings to cover. They need to open up to be able to trade, invest and employ staff, in turn, turning over a profit and paying the NI, VAT and corporation tax that funds the NHS we keep being told we have to "protect".

 

Pathetic attempt at justifying your rank ignorance.  I've never remotely suggested anything like your opening remarks.  Furlough will be needed beyond the date you suggested in order to support the economy while it recovers.  No more no less.  Not every employer will be able to start up,  recover,  upscale activity at the same pace.  Allowing jobs and businesses to disappear is much more costly than supporting them during a crisis and recovery.

 

Look,  you made another fool of yourself.  Deal with it.  Own the consequences of your habitual nonsense.  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If the vaccines don't work as well as they think and also don't stop transmission, how much longer can the country afford to stay in lockdown?

 

 

In that scenario, then I'd be eternally grateful that I don't have to make the decision of what to do next.

An utterly complete no win situation with horrendous and long lasting consequences, no matter what decision is made.

 

1. Open up the economy and have to accept the inevitable horrendous death toll which will follow.

2. Stay in lockdown or partial lockdowns, trash the economy and accept the inevitable horrendous consequences of doing so, to the whole of society and in all likelihood also have a horrendous death toll, but not all from Covid-19.

 

[pablo]

13 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

source ?

 

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

 

Just leaving this here. 😊

Not been asked to go on to Good Morning Britain yet but tbh, putting on a Devi-wig, a rank rotten American accent and talking pish for 10mins doesn't really appeal tbh👍

[sadj]

Just now, pablo said:

 

 

Is that per % of the population. I figured Highland , islands etc might be lower but no idea why Glasgow and Edinburgh would be so low