Malinga the Swinga Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Costanza said: Sorry to labour the point; who are these "some scientists"? There are different groups of scientists. These are ) Government advising scientists - SAGE and the like Some scientists - Non government advising scientists Other scientists - non government advising scientists but disagree(sometimes) with some scientist group Some other scientists - not to be confused with the some scientist or other scientist groups Independent scientists who don't like joining groups of other, some or some other scientists. All very straightforward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 The 7-day positivity rate is back down today to the level that it was before the festive surge of cases. Also a good drop in the 7-day deaths, while hospitalisations continue on their downward trend. The national case rate increased slightly today, due mainly to small increases across much of the board, although moderate increases in West Lothian and East Renfrewshire do stand out, as do decreases in East Ayrshire, the Western Isles and Inverclyde. The areas historically towards the bottom of the table appear to be settling down there again. Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday 17 Feb 16 Feb 15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb ... 20 Dec Scotland 106 105 +1 108 102 103 110 104 ... 98 East Ayrshire 4 3 238 278 -40 331 312 319 316 284 ... 153 Falkirk 4 2 234 233 +1 214 187 196 205 190 ... 60 West Lothian 4 3 215 198 +17 192 177 164 152 100 ... 83 Clackmannanshire 4 3 213 221 -8 231 233 229 221 227 ... 148 West Dunbartonshire 4 3 202 205 -3 228 219 227 224 201 ... 120 North Lanarkshire 4 3 175 166 +9 170 146 149 167 161 ... 119 Renfrewshire 4 3 162 173 -11 183 168 159 166 147 ... 116 Stirling 4 3 158 158 0 163 157 159 165 160 ... 70 South Lanarkshire 4 3 138 138 0 147 141 146 151 150 ... 120 East Renfrewshire 4 3 136 111 +25 106 103 109 127 106 ... 101 Glasgow City 4 3 134 130 +4 137 131 133 153 144 ... 129 North Ayrshire 4 3 126 122 +4 132 134 135 144 135 ... 175 Midlothian 4 3 111 105 +6 110 107 97 100 98 ... 136 Edinburgh City 4 3 79 75 +4 69 62 60 62 61 ... 109 East Lothian 4 3 74 70 +4 66 63 58 78 73 ... 148 East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 64 +3 67 56 69 83 83 ... 70 Fifes Bananas 4 3 67 70 -3 60 62 56 55 53 ... 97 Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 67 109 -42 105 112 116 124 116 ... 22 South Ayrshire 4 3 66 59 +7 63 67 72 85 91 ... 98 Moray 4 1 64 71 -7 75 75 67 78 72 ... 13 Perth & Kinross 4 3 64 64 0 56 59 55 64 71 ... 126 Inverclyde 4 2 62 84 -22 94 100 104 100 99 ... 59 Angus 4 2 57 55 +2 54 53 53 61 67 ... 37 Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 56 61 -5 45 50 68 79 83 ... 29 Dundee City 4 3 53 50 +3 43 40 38 40 40 ... 113 Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 51 49 +2 64 70 73 86 87 ... 32 Highland 4/3 1 51 53 -2 61 56 58 62 59 ... 17 Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 37 +3 40 40 45 49 49 ... 88 Aberdeen City 4 3 35 32 +3 36 33 35 41 43 ... 163 Scottish Borders 4 1 30 28 +2 31 27 29 29 31 ... 85 Orkney Islands 3 1 9 18 -9 22 27 27 27 27 ... 0 Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 9 ... 0 7-day averages Tests 18490 17912 +578 18318 17622 17424 18373 17754 ... 16839 Positivity rate % 5.2 5.4 -0.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 ... 5.2 Hospital (non-ICU) 1256 1290 -34 1322 1352 1384 1418 1455 ... 975 ICU 101 104 -3 106 108 109 110 111 ... 50 Deaths 36 41 -5 40 38 39 40 40 ... 25 All Vaccinations 41139 45314 -4175 48864 52109 56064 55497 55852 1st Dose 38932 43746 -4814 47786 51412 55481 54930 55288 2nd Dose 2207 1568 +639 1078 697 583 567 564 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Costanza said: Sorry to labour the point; who are these "some scientists"? Not at all but , sorry, I don't have any specific links, I'm just relaying opinions that I have heard expressed over recent months by scientists being interviewed in various papers or on the rolling news channels. I suppose it ties in with the theory being put forward currently that the impact of antibodies, whether through vaccination or previous infection, is causing it to mutate. Locking people away also interrupts the progress of the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Even if such half-baked theories had some scientific legitimacy, having no lockdown can only, would only, result in a level of serious illness that societies cannot manage. Not at that scale and in an unsuppressed short period of time. People dying at home, mass graves, etc. Suppression isn't simply about preventing deaths. It's more about regulating the flow of deaths. Lockdown had to happen anyway. Even if the notion about lockdown mutation of virus was in any way credible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Brown Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, redjambo said: The 7-day positivity rate is back down today to the level that it was before the festive surge of cases. Also a good drop in the 7-day deaths, while hospitalisations continue on their downward trend. The national case rate increased slightly today, due mainly to small increases across much of the board, although moderate increases in West Lothian and East Renfrewshire do stand out, as do decreases in East Ayrshire, the Western Isles and Inverclyde. The areas historically towards the bottom of the table appear to be settling down there again. Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday 17 Feb 16 Feb 15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb ... 20 Dec Scotland 106 105 +1 108 102 103 110 104 ... 98 East Ayrshire 4 3 238 278 -40 331 312 319 316 284 ... 153 Falkirk 4 2 234 233 +1 214 187 196 205 190 ... 60 West Lothian 4 3 215 198 +17 192 177 164 152 100 ... 83 Clackmannanshire 4 3 213 221 -8 231 233 229 221 227 ... 148 West Dunbartonshire 4 3 202 205 -3 228 219 227 224 201 ... 120 North Lanarkshire 4 3 175 166 +9 170 146 149 167 161 ... 119 Renfrewshire 4 3 162 173 -11 183 168 159 166 147 ... 116 Stirling 4 3 158 158 0 163 157 159 165 160 ... 70 South Lanarkshire 4 3 138 138 0 147 141 146 151 150 ... 120 East Renfrewshire 4 3 136 111 +25 106 103 109 127 106 ... 101 Glasgow City 4 3 134 130 +4 137 131 133 153 144 ... 129 North Ayrshire 4 3 126 122 +4 132 134 135 144 135 ... 175 Midlothian 4 3 111 105 +6 110 107 97 100 98 ... 136 Edinburgh City 4 3 79 75 +4 69 62 60 62 61 ... 109 East Lothian 4 3 74 70 +4 66 63 58 78 73 ... 148 East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 64 +3 67 56 69 83 83 ... 70 Fifes Bananas 4 3 67 70 -3 60 62 56 55 53 ... 97 Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 67 109 -42 105 112 116 124 116 ... 22 South Ayrshire 4 3 66 59 +7 63 67 72 85 91 ... 98 Moray 4 1 64 71 -7 75 75 67 78 72 ... 13 Perth & Kinross 4 3 64 64 0 56 59 55 64 71 ... 126 Inverclyde 4 2 62 84 -22 94 100 104 100 99 ... 59 Angus 4 2 57 55 +2 54 53 53 61 67 ... 37 Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 56 61 -5 45 50 68 79 83 ... 29 Dundee City 4 3 53 50 +3 43 40 38 40 40 ... 113 Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 51 49 +2 64 70 73 86 87 ... 32 Highland 4/3 1 51 53 -2 61 56 58 62 59 ... 17 Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 37 +3 40 40 45 49 49 ... 88 Aberdeen City 4 3 35 32 +3 36 33 35 41 43 ... 163 Scottish Borders 4 1 30 28 +2 31 27 29 29 31 ... 85 Orkney Islands 3 1 9 18 -9 22 27 27 27 27 ... 0 Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 9 ... 0 7-day averages Tests 18490 17912 +578 18318 17622 17424 18373 17754 ... 16839 Positivity rate % 5.2 5.4 -0.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 ... 5.2 Hospital (non-ICU) 1256 1290 -34 1322 1352 1384 1418 1455 ... 975 ICU 101 104 -3 106 108 109 110 111 ... 50 Deaths 36 41 -5 40 38 39 40 40 ... 25 All Vaccinations 41139 45314 -4175 48864 52109 56064 55497 55852 1st Dose 38932 43746 -4814 47786 51412 55481 54930 55288 2nd Dose 2207 1568 +639 1078 697 583 567 564 Cheers Red. Just mentioned your figures to Mrs B. West Lothian 3rd now in the bad league. I mentioned that we were best of Lothians for while. She tells Addiewell prison has 100 cases. Point being figures don't tell a whole story. Prisons, Care Homes are like their own wee islands and can badly distort figures if the virus gets in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1971fozzy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, JamesM48 said: No fit healthy 18 - 40 needs to be vaccinated . Utter drivel Unfortunately some of this are just fixated on corona related deaths and sadly view it as collateral damage the countless thousands of deaths of others who didn’t get their cancer treatment etc “ casedemic “ is the appropriate term to use cause that is what it is . What’s a “ reduced shelf “ ? 😎 Harsh 😂😂😂 utter drivel ? you do know this thing mutates given a chance ? have all 18-40 year olds not vaccinate and risk carrying it and pass on to each other until a new form comes out and round we go again Edited February 19, 2021 by 1971fozzy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costanza Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 30 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said: There are different groups of scientists. These are ) Government advising scientists - SAGE and the like Some scientists - Non government advising scientists Other scientists - non government advising scientists but disagree(sometimes) with some scientist group Some other scientists - not to be confused with the some scientist or other scientist groups Independent scientists who don't like joining groups of other, some or some other scientists. All very straightforward. 😄 Thanks for the clarification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costanza Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: Not at all but , sorry, I don't have any specific links, I'm just relaying opinions that I have heard expressed over recent months by scientists being interviewed in various papers or on the rolling news channels. I suppose it ties in with the theory being put forward currently that the impact of antibodies, whether through vaccination or previous infection, is causing it to mutate. Locking people away also interrupts the progress of the virus. OK. I just hadn't heard that about the mutation impact in lockdown and genuinely interested to read up on it (have feck all else to do!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankblack Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Tommy Brown said: Cheers Red. Just mentioned your figures to Mrs B. West Lothian 3rd now in the bad league. I mentioned that we were best of Lothians for while. She tells Addiewell prison has 100 cases. Point being figures don't tell a whole story. Prisons, Care Homes are like their own wee islands and can badly distort figures if the virus gets in. Add in places like factories where there has been some outbreaks recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, Costanza said: OK. I just hadn't heard that about the mutation impact in lockdown and genuinely interested to read up on it (have feck all else to do!) 😂. Yes, I know the feeling. I'll try to search for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tommy Brown said: Cheers Red. Just mentioned your figures to Mrs B. West Lothian 3rd now in the bad league. I mentioned that we were best of Lothians for while. She tells Addiewell prison has 100 cases. Point being figures don't tell a whole story. Prisons, Care Homes are like their own wee islands and can badly distort figures if the virus gets in. Indeed. It's all a question however of whether the virus then "leaks back out" into the general community. In the case of West Lothian, if you were to subtract 100 cases from the total there over the last 7 days, you would have a 7-day per-capita rate of 161 which still puts it quite high in the table and would indicate some community transmission if you compare its values against where it was a week ago. Only the authorities know where the cases all lie though. However, I'm sure we'll see West Lothian start falling back down the "bad league" before too long. It's just a question of mopping up the residual cases and nipping any further community transmission in the bud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 48 minutes ago, redjambo said: The 7-day positivity rate is back down today to the level that it was before the festive surge of cases. Also a good drop in the 7-day deaths, while hospitalisations continue on their downward trend. The national case rate increased slightly today, due mainly to small increases across much of the board, although moderate increases in West Lothian and East Renfrewshire do stand out, as do decreases in East Ayrshire, the Western Isles and Inverclyde. The areas historically towards the bottom of the table appear to be settling down there again. Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday 17 Feb 16 Feb 15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb ... 20 Dec Scotland 106 105 +1 108 102 103 110 104 ... 98 East Ayrshire 4 3 238 278 -40 331 312 319 316 284 ... 153 Falkirk 4 2 234 233 +1 214 187 196 205 190 ... 60 West Lothian 4 3 215 198 +17 192 177 164 152 100 ... 83 Clackmannanshire 4 3 213 221 -8 231 233 229 221 227 ... 148 West Dunbartonshire 4 3 202 205 -3 228 219 227 224 201 ... 120 North Lanarkshire 4 3 175 166 +9 170 146 149 167 161 ... 119 Renfrewshire 4 3 162 173 -11 183 168 159 166 147 ... 116 Stirling 4 3 158 158 0 163 157 159 165 160 ... 70 South Lanarkshire 4 3 138 138 0 147 141 146 151 150 ... 120 East Renfrewshire 4 3 136 111 +25 106 103 109 127 106 ... 101 Glasgow City 4 3 134 130 +4 137 131 133 153 144 ... 129 North Ayrshire 4 3 126 122 +4 132 134 135 144 135 ... 175 Midlothian 4 3 111 105 +6 110 107 97 100 98 ... 136 Edinburgh City 4 3 79 75 +4 69 62 60 62 61 ... 109 East Lothian 4 3 74 70 +4 66 63 58 78 73 ... 148 East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 64 +3 67 56 69 83 83 ... 70 Fifes Bananas 4 3 67 70 -3 60 62 56 55 53 ... 97 Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 67 109 -42 105 112 116 124 116 ... 22 South Ayrshire 4 3 66 59 +7 63 67 72 85 91 ... 98 Moray 4 1 64 71 -7 75 75 67 78 72 ... 13 Perth & Kinross 4 3 64 64 0 56 59 55 64 71 ... 126 Inverclyde 4 2 62 84 -22 94 100 104 100 99 ... 59 Angus 4 2 57 55 +2 54 53 53 61 67 ... 37 Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 56 61 -5 45 50 68 79 83 ... 29 Dundee City 4 3 53 50 +3 43 40 38 40 40 ... 113 Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 51 49 +2 64 70 73 86 87 ... 32 Highland 4/3 1 51 53 -2 61 56 58 62 59 ... 17 Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 37 +3 40 40 45 49 49 ... 88 Aberdeen City 4 3 35 32 +3 36 33 35 41 43 ... 163 Scottish Borders 4 1 30 28 +2 31 27 29 29 31 ... 85 Orkney Islands 3 1 9 18 -9 22 27 27 27 27 ... 0 Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 9 ... 0 7-day averages Tests 18490 17912 +578 18318 17622 17424 18373 17754 ... 16839 Positivity rate % 5.2 5.4 -0.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 ... 5.2 Hospital (non-ICU) 1256 1290 -34 1322 1352 1384 1418 1455 ... 975 ICU 101 104 -3 106 108 109 110 111 ... 50 Deaths 36 41 -5 40 38 39 40 40 ... 25 All Vaccinations 41139 45314 -4175 48864 52109 56064 55497 55852 1st Dose 38932 43746 -4814 47786 51412 55481 54930 55288 2nd Dose 2207 1568 +639 1078 697 583 567 564 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said: have all 18-40 year olds not vaccinate and risk carrying it and pass on to each other until a new form comes out and round we go again Fozzy does it matter if you have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission? I am fit and healthy 63 year old and if I get vaccinated it will only reduce the likelihood of me getting badly ill if I catch it. I can still pass it on. Is it therefore not the same case if 18 - 40 year olds get the vaccine that they can still pass it on to others? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1971fozzy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, joondalupjambo said: Fozzy does it matter if you have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission? I am fit and healthy 63 year old and if I get vaccinated it will only reduce the likelihood of me getting badly ill if I catch it. I can still pass it on. Is it therefore not the same case if 18 - 40 year olds get the vaccine that they can still pass it on to others? my understanding is yes you can still pass it on but if everyone is vaccinated then the likelihood of anyone catching it is small. If you pass it on to anyone that’s not been vaccinated then they can catch it and pass it on to others not vaccinated giving it the chance to mutate into a form that’s effective. ideally everyone vaccinated then it’s stopping it spreading. at least that is my understanding of it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said: Fozzy does it matter if you have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission? I am fit and healthy 63 year old and if I get vaccinated it will only reduce the likelihood of me getting badly ill if I catch it. I can still pass it on. Is it therefore not the same case if 18 - 40 year olds get the vaccine that they can still pass it on to others? That is a very good question. The answer is yes, no, maybe (there doesn't appear to be not enough evidence yet although some evidence is promising): https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said: Fozzy does it matter if you have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission? I am fit and healthy 63 year old and if I get vaccinated it will only reduce the likelihood of me getting badly ill if I catch it. I can still pass it on. Is it therefore not the same case if 18 - 40 year olds get the vaccine that they can still pass it on to others? That's my understanding of it too. I think they hope it does more than that though so at some stage they'll know and be able to publish data on whether it does or doesn't. As it stands though, they've not proven that it prevents people catching it and spreading it, as far as I knkw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Dan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, Tommy Brown said: Point being figures don't tell a whole story. Prisons, Care Homes are like their own wee islands and can badly distort figures if the virus gets in. Im not aware I’ve ever heard the politicians (Surgeon in this case) quote these figures separately from the main population. I often wonder what the reasoning behind this is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Transmission isn't a binary question. It's thought that transmission will be disrupted and reduced. Fewer people shedding less virus for shorter duration, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said: Fozzy does it matter if you have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission? I am fit and healthy 63 year old and if I get vaccinated it will only reduce the likelihood of me getting badly ill if I catch it. I can still pass it on. Is it therefore not the same case if 18 - 40 year olds get the vaccine that they can still pass it on to others? Studies are just starting to come in about transmissibility after having a vaccine. The initial data suggests that being vaccinated does reduce your ability to transmit the virus to others, perhaps by as much as 75%. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/israeli-studies-find-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-reduces-transmission-idUSKBN2AJ08D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said: Studies are just starting to come in about transmissibility after having a vaccine. The initial data suggests that being vaccinated does reduce your ability to transmit the virus to others, perhaps by as much as 75%. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/israeli-studies-find-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-reduces-transmission-idUSKBN2AJ08D That's the game changer, hopefully they can prove in peer-reviewed studies that soon. 🤞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Taffin said: That's the game changer, hopefully they can prove in peer-reviewed studies that soon. 🤞 I think that Israel's experience is key to how the rest of the (developed) world emerges from the pandemic. Israel made an arrangement with Pfizer to share all their covid data with the company in exchange for priority supplies of the vaccine. Effectively making it a phase 4 trial (real world). While I might have concerns if the latest data was coming from Pfizer themselves, I think that it is reassuring that it is coming from university and hospital studies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said: Studies are just starting to come in about transmissibility after having a vaccine. The initial data suggests that being vaccinated does reduce your ability to transmit the virus to others, perhaps by as much as 75%. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/israeli-studies-find-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-reduces-transmission-idUSKBN2AJ08D Cheers FF That is only Pfizer which much fewer people in the UK are getting. Even getting that one you can still pass it on, albeit at a reduced level and that is pretty key. As for the Oxford one as yet there is no hard data available in relation to confirm transmission or not however scientists are assuming if one vaccine does others will. https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know So at this moment in time, and I believe based on above if you get the current vaccines without changes to them, either of them you can still transmit the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 On 18/02/2021 at 14:27, DETTY29 said: Only key changes yesterday are that are a small number of percentage points in the 3 outstanding JCVI categories 70-74 years old increase from 90% to 92%. 65-69 years old increase from 64% to 69% Clinically Extremely Vulnerable 80 - 83% I didn't catch the chat today about supply data, but this was included today. COVID-19 Vaccine supply data As of Monday 15th February: - Total number of doses allocated: 1,618,320 - Total number of doses delivered: 1,520,690 As of Sunday 14th 1.31m vaccines had been administered. From the deployment document previously withdrawn we are only meant to be in receipt of 80k doses this week , and 200k next, before supply ramp up starts again. (Not withstanding that Pfizer has apparently rescheduled delivery of supplies) __________________________________________________ FULL SG Text As at 8:30am on Thursday 18 February: 1,354,966 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 24,169 have received their second dose 30,01 care home residents (exceeding the initial target for residents in older adult care homes and 95% of residents in all care homes) 41,501 care home staff (92% of staff in older adult care homes and 80% of staff in all care homes) 286,355 frontline health and social care workers exceeding the initial target provided by Health Boards. 148,168 people who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (83% of those on the shielding list). Latest progress for each age group on first doses shows we have vaccinated: 272,333 people aged 80 or over (exceeding estimated population based on the latest mid-2019 population estimates) 203,726 people aged 75-79 (exceeding estimated population) 256,381 people aged 70-74 (92%) 207,534 people aged 65-69 (69%) COVID-19 Vaccine supply data As of Monday 15th February: total number of doses allocated: 1,618,320 Total number of doses delivered: 1,520,690 There isn't too much on the vaccine figures to report apart from steady increases on the key cohorts being worked on just now:- 70-74 yo up 2% to 94% 65-69 yo up 5% to 74% so really should be beating early March aspiration but there is a reduction in supplies coming down line, plus 2nd doses, but end Feb as per other nations doesn't seem an unachievable target. CEV up 1% to 84% Elderly Care Home Staff up another 1% to 93% What potentially is more interesting is that all 4 nations have in one way or anther declared their mid February vaccine take up position. All have revised targets and had more people to jag than their initial vaccination deployment targets, which were pretty much based on mid 2019 ONS, National Record statistics. Scotland and Wales have their own daily stats release, NI do ad-hoc but declared a position on 16th for close 15th and England weekly Thursday for close on 14th. I've added a very rough and ready picture of a spreadsheet if anyone interested on declared cohort position by nation as declared. I'm sure there is a fancy dan algorithm out there that determines whether quick mass populous vaccination is better (and will lead to quicker 2nd, full dose vaccination too) or what the SG has called a 'studious' approach of focusing on only the higher cohorts first and 'back end' vaccinating of mass cohorts but there are one or two worrying pieces of analysis - Elderly Care Home Residents in Wales (83%) and England (87%) This is notably due to being unable to vaccination because of Covid outbreaks, so will 'get there'. But the care home cohort really was meant to complete end January. - Elderly Care Home Staff in England at 65%. (For both residents & staff, 'eligible' declared figures are slightly higher but this is because 'eligible' means 'able to vaccinate', which goes back to not being able to due to Covid outbreaks - I am far from convinced that Scotland and NIs declared CH position is as good as being portrayed, but the press aren't challenging. - 70-74 year olds in England (74%); NI (75%) take up considered to Scotland (88%) and Wales (90%) although Scotland has now closed that gap on Wales - England's NHS Trust Frontline 1st dose take up is only 73.1% on a revised figure target (which has reduced from 2m to 1.4m) The Frontline Hospital figures do not include NHS Bank or Agency staff. Could this be a Covid challenge again with staff being off The figures probably go miles beyond what any of the 4 nations hoped for plus there isn't a 'constant' reporting approach across the 4 nations, but on the face of it England potentially has some 'take up' challenges to face. I've not looked at the breakdown yet from what was released yesterday in England but the more diverse population is the likely outcome. UK_COVID19_KEYJCVICOHORT_MIDFEB_TAKE UP.pptx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said: my understanding is yes you can still pass it on but if everyone is vaccinated then the likelihood of anyone catching it is small. If you pass it on to anyone that’s not been vaccinated then they can catch it and pass it on to others not vaccinated giving it the chance to mutate into a form that’s effective. ideally everyone vaccinated then it’s stopping it spreading. at least that is my understanding of it ? Where I am at is if you get vaccinated then you perhaps get the disease at reduced severity but as to how bad you would be that can still be down to age and/or health condition. Transmission will not be stopped only ever reduced and even to do that perhaps we will need other, newer versions of the vaccines depending on which ones we are talking about before that happens. The thought of two Oxfords, and then a booster over a period of say what looks like 5 months to me is like yeah fine for the oldies, the unhealthy and those who are really worried but for fit and healthy 18 to 40 year old's would it not be better to wait until later in the year when we develop a single dose vaccine and offer it to that group then? I am sure there will be strong scientific evidence as to why I am taking single fish with that last paragraph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Transmission is not the only concern though - there is still a significant % of cases requiring hospital treatment in the under 50s group, if the virus is spread unchecked in this group without vaccination to prevent serious illness then although deaths would remain low, hospitals could still fill up at a time when they need space to resume and catch up with regular treatments. Now I am not saying we need to stay n lockdown for ever, far from it, but it does explain the need for some control on re-opening things. Yep much bigger questions for sure, I agree and get the bed filling point. Pandemics, hospitals being able to cope, do we have enough hospitals, then NHS staffing, shielding, men being idiots and not social distancing, politicians, lock downs, schooling, the economy, stupid football players (sorry that was covered in men being idiots point) and so on and so on Forgive me if I just sick to transmissions for now Not aimed at you, I have not had a drink for 7 weeks now but every time I come on here I reach for the bottle!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Barack said: Anyone know what happens normally, if you've acted unlawfully? Unless you're a Conservative member of Parliament, of course...? Who took it to court that a judge has made a ruling. Interesting on the back of reports of passing the contracts for track and trace to people with no history of IT amongst other things and who are also friendly with the individuals in government hierarchy. Not sure now is the time for this if it becomes any sort if witch hunt though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: No worries but it does go to the point of why we need to vaccinate everyone we can and not just the over 50s. No, no I get it but I am not in that camp just yet and I am sure many others are too. Every step of the way this has been hard. If we do the ones we need to do now and then everyone else who is fit and able follows the social distancing rules that will remain in place then my view is one single dose at the back end of this year for others who want it. Happy to listen to others, evidence and debate though because I am not saying I will not change my mind. I am not sure that in the 18 to 50 group we will see the levels of take up as in the older categories. Again maybe wrong here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, sadj said: Who took it to court that a judge has made a ruling. Interesting on the back of reports of passing the contracts for track and trace to people with no history of IT amongst other things and who are also friendly with the individuals in government hierarchy. Not sure now is the time for this if it becomes any sort if witch hunt though It could be Tory back bencher's who are at the back of this and want him out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Barack said: "Campaign group the Good Law Project and three MPs - Labour's Debbie Abrahams, Green Caroline Lucas and Lib Dem Layla Moran - took legal action against the department." Ty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joondalupjambo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Barack said: "Campaign group the Good Law Project and three MPs - Labour's Debbie Abrahams, Green Caroline Lucas and Lib Dem Layla Moran - took legal action against the department." It could be Tory back bencher's who are at the back of this and want him out and put these folk up to it Has to be them dastardly Tory boys on that Covid Recovery Group surely, who are the Directors of the Good Law Project Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve123 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 There is a bit on the sky link below at 16:12 with amount of vacination's carried out ( tried to paste table but rubbish at it ) If this is correct Scottish numbers are well behind !! COVID news - live UK updates: New coronavirus strain emerges in Japan, vaccine official speaks and lockdown fears voiced by government scientist | UK News | Sky News Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Barack said: No worries. In other BREAKING NEWS: Phillip staying in hospital until next week now. For "rest." Aye, he's obviously fine. Nothing to see there. Aye nothing like having a wee sleep in a hospital bed in a pandemic with a pressurised NHS for a “rest” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, sadj said: Aye nothing like having a wee sleep in a hospital bed in a pandemic with a pressurised NHS for a “rest” Phil wont be in the custody of the NHS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, Governor Tarkin said: Phil wont be in the custody of the NHS. Ssssh dont disrupt my royal bashing ffs 🤨 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, steve123 said: There is a bit on the sky link below at 16:12 with amount of vacination's carried out ( tried to paste table but rubbish at it ) If this is correct Scottish numbers are well behind !! COVID news - live UK updates: New coronavirus strain emerges in Japan, vaccine official speaks and lockdown fears voiced by government scientist | UK News | Sky News First Dose Wales 26.1% Scotland 24.8% England 24.5% Northern Ireland 22.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve123 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Ray Gin said: First Dose Wales 26.1% Scotland 24.8% England 24.5% Northern Ireland 22.6% Cool I obv read it wrong, cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, steve123 said: There is a bit on the sky link below at 16:12 with amount of vacination's carried out ( tried to paste table but rubbish at it ) If this is correct Scottish numbers are well behind !! COVID news - live UK updates: New coronavirus strain emerges in Japan, vaccine official speaks and lockdown fears voiced by government scientist | UK News | Sky News I guess it depends how many people are in each of those categories but yes, split that way, Scotland look well behind. If it's accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said: That data is at least a week old, as stated on the table itself. That explains it better 👍 I could only just see the top of Scotland line on my mobile...I'm guessing that's at the bottom of the graphic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve123 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: That data is at least a week old, as stated on the table itself. fair enough never read that, a bit weird sky having it on their live feed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Barack said: Wonder if he'll get a Sympathy card or his Telegram from the wife, before June. I sympathise with your predicament and the hardships you have endured at my side all these years....Get Well Soon , Queenie n the corgis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, sadj said: Aye nothing like having a wee sleep in a hospital bed in a pandemic with a pressurised NHS for a “rest” Sorry no Royal bashing this time. The King Edward VII Hospital is a private hospital, which has opened it's doors to treat urgent NHS patients to help take pressure off the NHS. https://www.kingedwardvii.co.uk/about-king-edward-vii/news/how-king-edward-viis-hospital-is-supporting-the-nhs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, steve123 said: There is a bit on the sky link below at 16:12 with amount of vacination's carried out ( tried to paste table but rubbish at it ) If this is correct Scottish numbers are well behind !! COVID news - live UK updates: New coronavirus strain emerges in Japan, vaccine official speaks and lockdown fears voiced by government scientist | UK News | Sky News These tie in with what I posted and are England's latest figures as released by ONS, NHS England. Scotland's equivalent were 88%, 102%, 100%. The 70-74% is s bit of a concern. Renember last week the PM, Hancock et al were really encouraging folk in England to urgently contact their GPs, NHS England to get booked in. More concerning for England is lack of take up in NHS Trusts (73%)and still not getting into Care Homes due to Covid outbreaks. Also worring is the gap between residents and staff take up. Scotland is 8%, England 22%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said: Sorry no Royal bashing this time. The King Edward VII Hospital is a private hospital, which has opened it's doors to treat urgent NHS patients to help take pressure off the NHS. https://www.kingedwardvii.co.uk/about-king-edward-vii/news/how-king-edward-viis-hospital-is-supporting-the-nhs Another one ruining my royal bashing 🤨 However that article was nice to read. Its almost the reverse of our local big private hospital. They use NHS staff and also if there is any issues outwith their ops they just ship them up to ARI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, DETTY29 said: These tie in with what I posted and are England's latest figures as released by ONS, NHS England. Scotland's equivalent were 88%, 102%, 100%. The 70-74% is s bit of a concern. Renember last week the PM, Hancock et al were really encouraging folk in England to urgently contact their GPs, NHS England to get booked in. More concerning for England is lack of take up in NHS Trusts (73%)and still not getting into Care Homes due to Covid outbreaks. Also worring is the gap between residents and staff take up. Scotland is 8%, England 22%. I thought our care home staff and resident uptake was high , how come its only 8% or more likely how am I misinterpreting the info Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam_the_legend Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said: Transmission is not the only concern though - there is still a significant % of cases requiring hospital treatment in the under 50s group, if the virus is spread unchecked in this group without vaccination to prevent serious illness then although deaths would remain low, hospitals could still fill up at a time when they need space to resume and catch up with regular treatments. Now I am not saying we need to stay n lockdown for ever, far from it, but it does explain the need for some control on re-opening things. Its not only over 50’s that are in the priority groups though. The JCVI top 9 cohorts account for 99% of deaths and 80% of hospitalisations. Under 50’s with no comorbidities come out relatively unscathed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said: Phil wont be in the custody of the NHS. I really hope he doesn't catch Covid 19 wherever he is. Especially at his age. 😊 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, sadj said: I thought our care home staff and resident uptake was high , how come its only 8% or more likely how am I misinterpreting the info Sorry, you need to see the full data. For Elderley Care Homes we are saying 100% residents, 92% staff. England is 87% - 65%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Governor Tarkin said: I think that's the plan 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) Had my first dose of vaccine today. In and out in no time thanks to the staff at Riverside in Musselburgh. Always get a sore arm fairly soon after flu jag but nothing so far. Edited February 19, 2021 by GinRummy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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