Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[redjambo]

18 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Thanks for keeping it going, I got fed up doing it. 

 

With school runs etc, you have a far busier life than I do.

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Related clusters e.g. testing at schools and universities.

 

A breakdown per sector per area.  If they are going to throw the likes of hospitality under a bus they need to be transparent and give us the numbers in relation to other sectors.

 

People would appreciate and accept decisions that target the problem areas if they had the transparency.

 

The SG aren't particularly good at transparency given Nicola's meltdown over keeping Edinburgh in Tier 3.

 

I know it risks bringing the hounds of hell down on my head but, to be fair, it looks as if they were right to keep Edinburgh in tier 3 for the meantime.

[Nucky Thompson]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I know it risks bringing the hounds of hell down on my head but, to be fair, it looks as if they were right to keep Edinburgh in tier 3 for the meantime.

I'm not buying that red.

All the data said Edinburgh should have been moved down.

The excuse given was that she didn't want people to travel into Edinburgh

[The Real Maroonblood]

3 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I'm not buying that red.

All the data said Edinburgh should have been moved down.

The excuse given was that she didn't want people to travel into Edinburgh

I'm losing the will to live. 

[westbow]

1 hour ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

Queen Margaret is is East Lothian which may explain there to some extent. 

Ditto Jewel and Esk College in Dalkeith (Midlothian) and Dick Vet at the Bush (Midlothian). Trouble is, Asymptomatic positive tests do not tell you when someone became positive. They could have caught it months ago.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I'm not buying that red.

All the data said Edinburgh should have been moved down.

The excuse given was that she didn't want people to travel into Edinburgh

 

They also said that they were seeing the start of an increase in cases in Edinburgh that made the decision difficult. That has been borne out by the data over the last week. However, we are talking degrees in hindsight here, and I see where you're coming from.

[Cruyff]

1 hour ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

👍

Going by the statistics it

doesn't look like Edinburgh will move to Tier2.😭 

Hope I'm wrong. 

 

I doubt it but I see loads of people standing outside the Nautcus in Duke Street and the Harbour Inn along Newhaven getting pished every single day. 

 

It's a load of nonsense. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Cruyff

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I'm losing the will to live. 

 

Don't. Remember that vaccine. We're on the attack.

[frankblack]

7 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Apart from the massive spike in September the under 25 group sits at about 23% of cases. There isn’t a big spike in that group just now. That suggests that nursery, schools and Universities are having the same impact now as they have since September spike when the halls opened. 

Breakdown today

 

0-4 2%
5-14 7.5%
15-19 6%
19-24 8.5%

 

 

Sorry, but that is generic data about ages when we need patterns identified about cause and setting.

 

To deal with a problem you must first understand where the causes are, which is the job of track and trace to gather that data.  If they aren't set up to do that they are failing.

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

But you don’t believe them when they tell you that information. 🤷‍♂️

 

If they were transparent and broke the data down by the aggregated data they must/should be capturing with track and trace then of course I'd accept it.

[Nucky Thompson]

5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

They also said that they were seeing the start of an increase in cases in Edinburgh that made the decision difficult. That has been borne out by the data over the last week. However, we are talking degrees in hindsight here, and I see where you're coming from.

If you go into the UK Covid dashboard and type in an Edinburgh postcode, it has us well below average in the UK at 88.4 per 100,000.

I know it's irrelevant, but if this was a UK decision, we would be in tier 2 with 2000 fans able to attend Tynecastle 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, CJGJ said:

The sooner our governments give up this stupid idea of a Christmas break the better

 

As if a virus knows to switch off for 5 days

 

When it was decided it was a sign of a weak government and more so now

 

Just be open and tell the population it is not possible to allow travel etc and its time to just shut up shop over Christmas and New Year

 

And how many people do you think will take notice of the government if they came out with that now, I'd think very few tbh.

I think the government didn't have a choice tbh as the feeling in the country was and still is that they are going to have a family christmas come what may.

 

Personally I think it's a recipe for disaster and we'll all pay the price come January as it wouldn't shock nor surprise me that there is a full national lock-down or similar because of it.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 hours ago, Cruyff said:

Just about to have a pint in a pub for the first time in months. 

 

So excited  

 

 

Did that last night, a meal and a pint, first time in 4 months, excellent.

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

19 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Don't. Remember that vaccine. We're on the attack.

👍

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Did that last night, a meal and a pint, first time in 4 months, excellent.

 

Glad you enjoyed it.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If you go into the UK Covid dashboard and type in an Edinburgh postcode, it has us well below average in the UK at 88.4 per 100,000.

I know it's irrelevant, but if this was a UK decision, we would be in tier 2 with 2000 fans able to attend Tynecastle 

 

On a UK basis, agreed, but we don't run the tier system on a UK basis. Moreover, the case levels show that we have been more successful in suppressing the virus in Scotland over the last while, perhaps due to our stricter tiers, although we sadly haven't done proportionately better on the deaths front. It also concerns me that the virus keeps on sweeping through care homes, even now after all we should have learned.

 

Perhaps it's our weather that has stopped folk going out and mingling though. I feel like I've been living in a washing machine these past few days.

[redjambo]

13 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

If they were transparent and broke the data down by the aggregated data they must/should be capturing with track and trace then of course I'd accept it.

 

I too would love to see a far greater transparency than we have been getting as regards the break-down of the cases and death stats. The key stat to help us lead our lives safely is how and where people are being infected - at the moment, we the public have very little idea where the transmission is happening within our respective communities, the occasional media article about a care home etc. aside.

[ArcticJambo]

1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

The Pentland ward is pretty rural, but contains the Bush estate.  I wonder if there was an outbreak at the Edinburgh University buildings there (Dick Vets)

Right, that will more than likely be it, even if small numbers enough to 'skew' the ward and even affect the region.

[frankblack]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

https://www.gov.scot/news/coronavirus-covid-19-in-schools/

 

Looks like political propoganda rather than an independent report.

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

Out of interest have you found any country that does provide this information?

 

Were they asking about how any other country does things, and how does what other countries do affect Scotland?

[Cruyff]

21 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Did that last night, a meal and a pint, first time in 4 months, excellent.

 

👍 Well worth it. 

[redjambo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

Out of interest have you found any country that does provide this information?

 

I haven't come across any, no, but I haven't really been searching. That's not to say however that it isn't feasible - I hope that the data already exists and is being used by the folk managing the epidemic to inform their decisions. Also worth bearing in mind, probably, is that the authorities would probably want to cleanse the resultant data of anything that pinpoints individuals and establishments for privacy reasons.

[CavySlaveJambo]

19 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

Right, that will more than likely be it, even if small numbers enough to 'skew' the ward and even affect the region.

Except there is no university accommodation out at the Bush.  Just the Vet School and associated facilities, and business premises. 

[frankblack]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

The independent sub-committee have all extended reports published and the names of the members are published. 

 

A lot determines on the make up of that sub-committee and their terms of reference.

 

If it was as narrow as it appears it was just a box ticking exercise.  From my reading it was political, and I'd need to see the data breakdown they had available to work from.  If its as general as the SG report then its absolutely useless.

[redjambo]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

I haven’t seen any data from anywhere for this. 

 

One of the problems is that to gather some of the data, the track and trace guys are going to have to ask people they are contacting "Where, in all probability, do you think you caught this?", so you're going to have to depend on the judgements of individuals for this portion of the data rather than use hard data. Beyond that, though, the track and trace guys *will* know whether cases are associated with a "closed" system such as a care home, school, pub, naval base, etc., and the immediate contacts thereof, and so should be able to communicate this data, imo.

[frankblack]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

One of the problems is that to gather some of the data, the track and trace guys are going to have to ask people they are contacting "Where, in all probability, do you think you caught this?", so you're going to have to depend on the judgements of individuals for this portion of the data rather than use hard data. Beyond that, though, the track and trace guys *will* know whether cases are associated with a "closed" system such as a care home, school, pub, naval base, etc., and the immediate contacts thereof, and so should be able to communicate this data, imo.

 

That is part of it, red, however if you gather all the locations they were at and the time range, which I believe they have to do, then you can do analysis on positive cases that visited the same locations in the same time periods.

 

Those locations can also be categorised as schools, universities, hospitality, etc, giving you further data you can aggregate into meaningful statistics and potentially identify sources of clusters.

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

That is part of it, red, however if you gather all the locations they were at and the time range, which I believe they have to do, then you can do analysis on positive cases that visited the same locations in the same time periods.

 

Those locations can also be categorised as schools, universities, hospitality, etc, giving you further data you can aggregate into meaningful statistics and potentially identify sources of clusters.

 

That would seem the smart way to do it.

[frankblack]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

That’s right because we’re more qualified to interpret the data than this lot

 

Members

• Professor Carol Tannahill, Chief Social Policy Adviser, SG (chair) 
• Professor Marion Bain, Deputy Chief Medical Officer, SG
• Professor Chris Chapman, University of Glasgow
• Iona Colvin, Chief Social Work Adviser, SG
• Professor Brigid Daniel, Professor Emerita, Queen Margaret University
• Professor Aline-Wendy Dunlop, University of Strathclyde
• Professor Paul Flowers, University of Strathclyde
• Gayle Gorman, Education Scotland
• Dona Milne, Director of Public Health, Fife
• Professor Ian Rivers, University of Strathclyde 
• Professor Sheila Rowan, Chief Scientific Adviser for Scotland, SG
• Dr Eileen Scott, Public Health Scotland
• Professor Devi Sridhar, University of Edinburgh

 

Are the majority of these people not actively working for the SG in the pandemic?

 

Regardless it doesn't cover what quality of data they were given to work with.

[Weakened Offender]

26 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Looks like political propoganda rather than an independent report.

 

I was certain that was going to bring you over to the normal side too but nope. I was wrong. 

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

I was certain that was going to bring you over to the normal side too but nope. I was wrong. 

 

I prefer to keep an open mind, unlike yourself. 👍

 

The data we are being fed by the SG is not tallying up with the regular reports of school and university clusters I see every other day on news sites.

 

They can fix that by providing that transparent breakdown as I discussed above.

Edited December 13, 2020 by frankblack

[hmfcbilly]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

And how many people do you think will take notice of the government if they came out with that now, I'd think very few tbh.

I think the government didn't have a choice tbh as the feeling in the country was and still is that they are going to have a family christmas come what may.

 

Personally I think it's a recipe for disaster and we'll all pay the price come January as it wouldn't shock nor surprise me that there is a full national lock-down or similar because of it.

I noticed Aldi in Galashiels had installed a massive covered 'bus shelter' type tunnel running the width of the store towards the front entrance when there today. Coyldnt help wondering if this is in preparation for a national lock down come January and we have to queue outside the supermarkets again 

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

That’s not having an open mind, that’s believing tabloid sensationalism over scientists. The newspaper articles have no understanding of what is actually happening. 
 

If you have an open mind go and read the stuff from the children’s sub-committee. 

 

So if I read articles that name specific schools and universities where there are outbreaks is that tabloid sensationalism or are they reporting facts?

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburgh-school-shuts-until-next-19431240

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-outbreak-st-georges-school-19426877

I posted a couple more links including Pollock Halls outbreak earlier this week, but can't be arsed finding them.

 

As an aside I saw the following article, which doesn't really give much confidence in schools, does it?

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-teachers-could-take-19449462

 

Changing the subject to hospitality - here is what the government's shitshow is creating in Edinburgh (I posted about this particular bar 3 weeks ago).

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/mobs-drinkers-gather-outside-edinburgh-19445807

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, hmfcbilly said:

I noticed Aldi in Galashiels had installed a massive covered 'bus shelter' type tunnel running the width of the store towards the front entrance when there today. Coyldnt help wondering if this is in preparation for a national lock down come January and we have to queue outside the supermarkets again 

 

Mmmmm, didn't notice that last night when we passed, in saying that wasn't really paying all that much attention, other than a cursory look.

If Asda put something up, then we'll know for sure. 

Still queuing outside M&S though.

[CavySlaveJambo]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Personally I think it's a recipe for disaster and we'll all pay the price come January as it wouldn't shock nor surprise me that there is a full national lock-down or similar because of it.

I am fully expecting a full lockdown in January.  
 

Wales are certainly going to have to Lockdown again, it is whether they can make it through the next few weeks first. There numbers are really high. 
 

[CavySlaveJambo]

6 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Mmmmm, didn't notice that last night when we passed, in saying that wasn't really paying all that much attention, other than a cursory look.

If Asda put something up, then we'll know for sure. 

Still queuing outside M&S though.

IKEA has a traffic light outside to allow people in and out, and they have left the large section of their car park where the extended queue was closed for parking. But they may be expecting the crowds in the next few weeks. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Glad you enjoyed it.

 

51 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

👍 Well worth it. 

 

Thanks.

I was a wee bit surprised that Gala wasn't busier, I expected it to have been, the Bridge & Hunters Hall (Spoons) were both quiet when we passed them. 

We were at the Kingsnowes Hotel, on the outskirts of Gala on the Selkirk road, really nice meal and a nice pint of McEwans 70/-, it went down a treat.

 

RM, that first pint will taste all the better for the waiting, trust me on that, pal. 👍

[hmfcbilly]

6 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Mmmmm, didn't notice that last night when we passed, in saying that wasn't really paying all that much attention, other than a cursory look.

If Asda put something up, then we'll know for sure. 

Still queuing outside M&S though.

Yeah I live in Clovenfords jimbo and generally pass aldi most days. 1st I noticed today too but, like you, hadn't really noticed in passing before. Was only because I actually went in the store today that I noticed! M & S is a bloody nightmare. Almost always a queue...im sure they only let about 10 shoppers in at a time though. Doesn't help with the fact the checkout staff like to blether for ages with a lot of the older customers. Nothing against pensioners btw but it is a bit annoying when they only have one check out staffed and they insist on blethering shite after the customer has finished paying for their shopping....usually happens when I'm stood with the kids too 🤣🤣

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

38 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I prefer to keep an open mind, unlike yourself. 👍

 

The data we are being fed by the SG is not tallying up with the regular reports of school and university clusters I see every other day on news sites.

 

They can fix that by providing that transparent breakdown as I discussed above.

 

it was a simple request you made to anyone who has a modicum of a clue

 

real food and drink stuff

 

the answer should be fairly simple too : no we don’t have that or yes here it is (with some limitations obviously)

 

pile of irrelevant dross is what you’ve received - I’m not shocked

 

 

[frankblack]

11 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

The first link is for a boarding school, that’s not the same as a school is it. 
 

 

A boarding school is still a school - clue is in the name.

 

Quote

The next link provides no data about transmissions in schools and is just a sensational headline. 
 

 

No, its talking about pupils and staff having to self-isolate, which must be significant to be reported.

 

Quote

The final link is about people flaunting the rules, that’s not the SG’s fault. 

 

No, it is a consequence of the draconian policies of the SG on the hospitality sector and shows the policy is an abject failure in multiple ways:

- People drinking outside without social distancing, contact tracing, hand sanitisers, face masks, etc.  In tier 2 these would be controlled strictly by the premises.

- Businesses being flushed down the toilet by the puritan crusade by the SG.

 

The christmas rule relaxation are a poorly thought out and implemented shambles which will backfire.

 

This shitshow is going to implode on the SG by the New Year as they have clearly lost the plot.

Edited December 13, 2020 by frankblack

[Weakened Offender]

44 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I prefer to keep an open mind, unlike yourself. 👍

 

The data we are being fed by the SG is not tallying up with the regular reports of school and university clusters I see every other day on news sites.

 

They can fix that by providing that transparent breakdown as I discussed above.

 

Some people would suggest you are confusing open with empty there. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

London Borough of Greenwich is closing it's schools from Monday, due to 'exponentially' rise in covid cases.

[The Real Maroonblood]

16 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

 

Thanks.

I was a wee bit surprised that Gala wasn't busier, I expected it to have been, the Bridge & Hunters Hall (Spoons) were both quiet when we passed them. 

We were at the Kingsnowes Hotel, on the outskirts of Gala on the Selkirk road, really nice meal and a nice pint of McEwans 70/-, it went down a treat.

 

RM, that first pint will taste all the better for the waiting, trust me on that, pal. 👍

👍🍺

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

Some people would suggest you are confusing open with empty there. 

 

 

All you seem to do is turn up on this thread and post personal abuse against people with a different point of view, because you don't want to listen to anything that contradicts your beloved party.

[Footballfirst]

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

I haven't come across any, no, but I haven't really been searching. That's not to say however that it isn't feasible - I hope that the data already exists and is being used by the folk managing the epidemic to inform their decisions. Also worth bearing in mind, probably, is that the authorities would probably want to cleanse the resultant data of anything that pinpoints individuals and establishments for privacy reasons.

It is perhaps easier to work out where transmission isn't happening rather than where it is.

 

If hospitality is closed in a local authority area, then you can be certain that it isn't happening there.  Similarly with venues accommodating mass events (football stadiums and concert venues).

 

We do know of those workplace (often food processing) and care home outbreaks that hit the news outlets.

 

I think we can be confident in saying that interaction with others in domestic settings is most common source, whether it is family gatherings, students in halls or flats or house parties.

 

I don't believe that retail or public transport contributes much, given the controls in place.  I certainly can's recall the last time I was in close contact with anyone for 15 minutes or more, in those settings.

 

Education is an unknown for me, as kids, with very few exceptions, appear to give any consideration to social distancing. The possibility of asymptomatic individuals transmitting the virus must be relatively high. Those cases may ultimately show themselves in domestic situations.    

[Weakened Offender]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

 

All you seem to do is turn up on this thread and post personal abuse against people with a different point of view, because you don't want to listen to anything that contradicts your beloved party.

 

I wouldn't say there were my beloved party. I doubt I would vote for them in an independent Scotland. 

 

As for personal abuse, you're pretty good at dishing that out too. 

[frankblack]

Just now, Weakened Offender said:

 

I wouldn't say there were my beloved party. I doubt I would vote for them in an independent Scotland. 

 

As for personal abuse, you're pretty good at dishing that out too. 

 

Either contribute to the debate or get out of this thread.  People have you well sussed out.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

22 minutes ago, hmfcbilly said:

Yeah I live in Clovenfords jimbo and generally pass aldi most days. 1st I noticed today too but, like you, hadn't really noticed in passing before. Was only because I actually went in the store today that I noticed! M & S is a bloody nightmare. Almost always a queue...im sure they only let about 10 shoppers in at a time though. Doesn't help with the fact the checkout staff like to blether for ages with a lot of the older customers. Nothing against pensioners btw but it is a bit annoying when they only have one check out staffed and they insist on blethering shite after the customer has finished paying for their shopping....usually happens when I'm stood with the kids too 🤣🤣

 

Back in the summer, M&S tried to stop both myself & Mrs JJ going in together as the lassie on the door insisted that it was one out one in, I made light of it by telling her that Mrs JJ was in for food I was in for beer and we wouldn't be together, we both got in.  😄

[Weakened Offender]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Either contribute to the debate or get out of this thread.  People have you well sussed out.

 

There's very little debate on this car crash of a thread Frankie boy. And what debate there actually is, most certainly has not been enhanced by your contributions. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

32 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

I am fully expecting a full lockdown in January.  
 

Wales are certainly going to have to Lockdown again, it is whether they can make it through the next few weeks first. There numbers are really high. 
 

 

Same here.

[CavySlaveJambo]

27 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

The first link is for a boarding school, that’s not the same as a school is it. 
 

The next link provides no data about transmissions in schools and is just a sensational headline. 
 

The final link is about people flaunting the rules, that’s not the SG’s fault. 

Kaimes is a specialist school but it is not a boarding school.