Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[frankblack]

5 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

There's very little debate on this car crash of a thread Frankie boy. And what debate there actually is, most certainly has not been enhanced by your contributions. 

 

I don't recall you posting anything at all other than personal attacks on other posters.  You do rank as one of the worst posters on KB.

 

I'm not going to reply to you again tonight as you are nothing but a third-rate troll, so give it a rest. 👍

Edited December 13, 2020 by frankblack

[frankblack]

42 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

I am fully expecting a full lockdown in January.  
 

Wales are certainly going to have to Lockdown again, it is whether they can make it through the next few weeks first. There numbers are really high. 
 

 

The economy can't afford that on top of Brexit.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

The economy can't afford that on top of Brexit.

 

If cases and deaths follow the same path as they are in the US after thanksgiving, then there might not be any other choice but to do so.

[CavySlaveJambo]

12 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

If cases and deaths follow the same path as they are in the US after thanksgiving, then there might not be any other choice but to do so.

This.
 

Cases are climbing again all over the U.K already.  England has been out of lockdown for 10 days.  Average time to symptoms from exposure is actually 5-6 days which may be why the climb is already coming. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by CavySlaveJambo

[Konrad von Carstein]

36 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Either contribute to the debate or get out of this thread.  People have you well sussed out.

 

Outrageous  

 

Who the hell do you think you are? 

 

He can stand up for himself , but you aren't exactly a "listener" in this thread either!

[frankblack]

Just now, Konrad von Carstein said:

 

Outrageous  

 

Who the hell do you think you are? 

 

He can stand up for himself , but you aren't exactly a "listener" in this thread either!

 

 

All the guy does is play the man, and you know fine well that is the case.

 

Perhaps try going back on his posts to me and other posters and see how many posts aren't having a pop at the poster?

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

BTW I have been calling for the same data as you but I just don’t think they can release it, must be about data protection as nobody does. 

 

In that case we would be in agreement.

 

Aggregated data containing no personal identifiable information won't be subject to the GDPR.

[hmfcbilly]

40 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Back in the summer, M&S tried to stop both myself & Mrs JJ going in together as the lassie on the door insisted that it was one out one in, I made light of it by telling her that Mrs JJ was in for food I was in for beer and we wouldn't be together, we both got in.  😄

😂😂 brilliant!

[Konrad von Carstein]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

 

All the guy does is play the man, and you know fine well that is the case.

 

Perhaps try going back on his posts to me and other posters and see how many posts aren't having a pop at the poster?

 

I'll not be looking back on anything...however you aren't the arbiter of who & what can be posted...

 

I'd be putting him on ignore, I've done that with "ManmyIQis10minus5" due to his utter drivel on the Brexit and SNP threads, quite cathartic!

 

Anyway, not looking for a fallout...

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

13 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

This.
 

Cases are climbing again all over the U.K already.  England has been out of lockdown for 10 days.  Average time to symptoms from exposure is actually 5-6 days which may be why the climb is already coming. 

 

That being the case goodness knows where it could be come the 5 day break.

I have to say I was in favour of it when first announced, however seeing cases rising all over the UK and this is long before any 5 day break, then I have grave concerns about it now. 

[coconut doug]

21 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

Until this week Glasgow and its satellite rregions have been top of the covid pops week in week out not sure how you can deny that.  Go in and pick a day, any day since the 12th Sep for a region (I'll help you, any in the central belt) on positve cases, and the 7 day rate per 100K, you'll find your answer right there.  Between the 12Aug and NOv10, Glasgow City has been either 1st or 2nd in terms of 7day/100K in 11 of the 14 weeks over that period, and the Top 4 has always been shared between GC, NL, SL, WD, and Renfrewshire. Noone gets even remotely close.  On the 20 Nov they chucked the 11 regions into T4 and thankfully they all dropped. Even today, only Midlothian cracks the top 10.

 

My point all along, if you've been following is that the SG failed t take the necessary action early enough with west central scotland when the numbers were ridiculous, which undoubtedy has caused many deaths. You even admitted it yourself that there will have been transmission from one region to another, so where do you think there is more likelihood of transmission from, low to high or high to low?  lol.

 

Anyway, you've run with your own slant on this, I'm not surprised in the least.

 

I agree with almost all the above but that was not what we were discussing. You were claiming that the virus had spread to the rest of Scotland from the west. The figures do not support this view.

 

The figures show that when the incidence was highest in the west, the numbers fell in the rest. Now when the incidence has dropped in the west the numbers are rising in the rest. That would not be the case if what you assert were true. It would be the other way round. The conclusion is that those from the west are not spreading the disease in significant numbers as you claim. 

[CavySlaveJambo]

5 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

In that case we would be in agreement.

 

Aggregated data containing no personal identifiable information won't be subject to the GDPR.

The problem would be if there was a low number of cases and they try and protect people’s information.   Public Health Scotland are doing a fantastic job as they have a system where people can calculate how many cases if there are 1-4 in an area as they still show the correct number per 100k

[Jambo-Jimbo]

4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It’s a tough one, I don’t think it will be any more than tier 4 though as it did drive the numbers down. Maybe close University campuses as well. 

 

Well that's London starting to shut schools, so it's anybody's guess what's gonna happen in two or three weeks time.

[coconut doug]

3 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I'm not buying that red.

All the data said Edinburgh should have been moved down.

The excuse given was that she didn't want people to travel into Edinburgh

 

One of several reasons given.

[Boof]

On 27/03/2020 at 20:41, Boof said:

Anybody on Facebook needing their fix of Scottish tunes could search for TunesInTheHoose

 

Started off by Peter Wood (a good Jambo) - an accordion instructor - when he wasn't able to go into school so he just fired up a video with a couple of tunes. It mushroomed from there and now, with the power of technology, they can have a 10-piece band comprised of players all over the world in their latest video.

 

Winner of Scots Trad Music Awards

 

Community Music Project of the Year, sponsored by Greentrax Recordings

Tunes in the Hoose

 

 

https://projects.handsupfortrad.scot/scotstradmusicawards/mg-alba-scots-trad-music-awards-announces-2020-winners/

 

 

[frankblack]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

If cases and deaths follow the same path as they are in the US after thanksgiving, then there might not be any other choice but to do so.

 

I don't think the U.S. is a fair comparison.  They are a basket case with a government in denial over the pandemic.

[The Mighty Thor]

Did the UK govt or PHE ever publish any data on case breakdown from the mass testing exercise in Liverpool?

 

On another note the positive case numbers appear to be on the march ☹

[frankblack]

41 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Yes but you are wanting specific locations of where and when positive cases occur, I don’t think that happens unless it is a specific large outbreak in one residential setting or work place. 

 

Not exactly.

 

I would like a breakdown by setting/category with clusters meriting public disclosure for contract tracing and targeted action.

 

I gave examples of how to process track and trace data that must/should be stored at a raw data level. 

[frankblack]

34 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

The problem would be if there was a low number of cases and they try and protect people’s information.   Public Health Scotland are doing a fantastic job as they have a system where people can calculate how many cases if there are 1-4 in an area as they still show the correct number per 100k

 

I don't think that is an issue if you provide aggregated totals per sector/category and only report clusters by location.

[Weakened Offender]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

I don't recall you posting anything at all other than personal attacks on other posters.  You do rank as one of the worst posters on KB.

 

I'm not going to reply to you again tonight as you are nothing but a third-rate troll, so give it a rest. 👍

 

That's your opinion Frank however Governor Tarkin, who is a far better poster than you, has consistently rated me a second rate troll, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it. 😎

[Taffin]

I'm not sure GDPR/data protection would stop them publishing data, they've sort of smashed through quite more significant human rights to 'combat' this so I can't see them caring too much about that. 

[Weakened Offender]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Can't say I agree with everything you post, Frankie, but you're correct about WO. However, it's not worth engaging. Just pop in a smiley  and he's happy he's got his attention and that seems to keep him quiet for a while.

 

😊

[Weakened Offender]

1 hour ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

 

I'd be putting him on ignore, I've done that with "ManmyIQis10minus5" due to his utter drivel on the Brexit and SNP threads, quite cathartic!

 

I was going to put him in ignore too a while back for the same reasons however I tend to agree with what he posts in The Terrace, and that's more important. 😎

[Weakened Offender]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

 

😀

[Konrad von Carstein]

9 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

I was going to put him in ignore too a while back for the same reasons however I tend to agree with what he posts in The Terrace, and that's more important. 😎

 

I get that TBH...but his Shed "contributions"

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Konrad von Carstein

[Weakened Offender]

Just now, Konrad von Carstein said:

 

I get that TBH...but

 

 

I know. The drearyness of it all. 🙄

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

27 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Full lockdown. What a pile of shite that was back in March, and the only thing the 'we have run out of ideas so let's try what didn't work last time' authorities have in their favour is that fewer folk are likely to go out anyway. 

 

It's akin to boom and bust economics - farcical behaviour from a pair of governments that haven't been in control since Day 1. Will be treating any future 'lockdowns' with the contempt they deserve and going about my business as normal, unencumbered by their arbitrary diktats. They could have shielded the vulnerable from September and let the rest of the country go about their business instead of this wishy-washy, borderline - nah, full-on - abusive relationship they have with the population in general.

Yes, a national lockdown is yesterday's solution. We are starting to find out more about the groups that are susceptible to Covid,both catching it and becoming ill. The vast majority are not susceptible to either so the discussion should be about how quickly we get back to normal not whether we should.  Daily obsession about cases is pointless as we don't even know how accurate the tests are or what they are actually picking up. It would be handy if the govt would confirm how this year's hospital occupancy rates compare with last year's or the 5 year average? Don't expect those figures any time soon.

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Did the UK govt or PHE ever publish any data on case breakdown from the mass testing exercise in Liverpool?

 

On another note the positive case numbers appear to be on the march ☹

I saw something last week saying it didn’t make as much of difference as was initially made out. 
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-liverpool-mass-testing-pilot-not-reaching-citys-poorest-people-leaked-documents-show-12158317

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4436

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, weehammy said:

So ancient barstewards like me and Mrs Hammy get locked up for months so you can enjoy visits to the boozer?
 

Only if you want to Hammy? The pubs will be open and you and Mrs. H will be able to exercise your own judgement.  That's the way forward.

[A Boy Named Crow]

15 minutes ago, weehammy said:

So ancient barstewards like me and Mrs Hammy get locked up for months so you can enjoy visits to the boozer?
 

I read a thing last night that was quite interesting.  It was setting out the history of covid and what's been going on around the world. One point it made was when China saw what was going on back in January, they saw they had a virus and treated it as such. They stomped on it, tried as far as possible to erradicate it. This gets numbers way down, so any flare ups are pretty manageable.  Australia and New Zealand followed a similar plan.

 

In Europe they still see it as a disease, so they focus on hospital admissions and "vulnerable groups" while not really doing anything that will stop the rampant spread through the population. Things like not shutting the border,  utter madness. A lockdown will have no effect if you're still bringing in infected people from outside, for example.

 

It's a monumental failing on the part of the government, tens of thousands of people have died needlessly. Heads should roll, but they won't.

 

You need a lockdown, a proper one, with a closed border. You need a government to take it seriously,  but really you need this nine months ago! this vaccine is the only hope now really...

Edited December 13, 2020 by A Boy Named Crow

[coconut doug]

12 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

What if they just want to go to the supermarket or Doctors or look after grandchildren? The infection rates would be so high that they couldn’t do anything. Even with lockdown measures the virus spreads and when cases get to certain level deaths start to occur. 

 

You had your choice. You went to the supermarket and you died. You should have gone to the pub. We all know there's no chance of catching anything in them.

[Enzo Chiefo]

7 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

What if they just want to go to the supermarket or Doctors or look after grandchildren? The infection rates would be so high that they couldn’t do anything. Even with lockdown measures the virus spreads and when cases get to certain level deaths start to occur. 

There is no evidence of that. You can't prove a negative.  The virus is mainly spread in certain settings and attacks the weakest and most susceptible,we know that. Hospitals, care homes, food processing factories etc. They haven't been locked down. The vast majority of supermarket staff have worked all year, a lot of it maskless, encountering hundreds of people a day and not caught Covid. Locking down the entire nation was a "one-off" panic measure and cases were actually falling before it started. Going back to lockdown would be madness.

[Enzo Chiefo]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

How dare you suggest people use their own judgement when we have the BBC, Nicola Sturgeon and JiH to tell them what to fear, how to fear it and when to fear it.

 

 

Haha. Sorry, as Jim Diamond once said...should've known better. Still waiting to hear back from La Sturge about what kind of spoon to use to dish out the roast tatties. Bring your own cutlery??🤣

[ArcticJambo]

2 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

I agree with almost all the above but that was not what we were discussing. You were claiming that the virus had spread to the rest of Scotland from the west. The figures do not support this view.

 

The figures show that when the incidence was highest in the west, the numbers fell in the rest. Now when the incidence has dropped in the west the numbers are rising in the rest. That would not be the case if what you assert were true. It would be the other way round. The conclusion is that those from the west are not spreading the disease in significant numbers as you claim. 

Tbh I'm not sure what you were originally point was, I explained what mine was and I stick by that.  There are no figures/data that will prove categorically one way or the other that there was spread from west to east/elsewhere (WELL, NONE THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO US ANYWAY) but it stands to reason that the likelihood of transmission from low to high is way more unlikely.  Of course the spread to the low regions from the high regions will take time, and imo that is what we're seeing now.  It slowly manifested its way out of glasgow and Lanarkshire into the surrounding regions in the west and south of Glasgow, and then into West Lothian, and it's now picking up in the rest of the Lothians and further afield.  That spread isn't going to be seen immediately, it takes time.  Like nobody travels out of Glasgow, or folks who live in west central scotland only work there and don't travel outwith their boundaries.  Ever had a wee look at the M8 westbound every evening, for instance, or the m80 southbound. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

11 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Thank goodness someone gets it. I appreciate your sacrifice; enjoy your four walls  

 

Pints and nips on me, lads!

 

---

 

Come on, you know that's not what I'm slavering on about. The reality is that most folk could carry on their normal lives relatively worry-free from the severest effects of Covid. If you are vulnerable to its impact, then it would make sense to wear a mask, distance yourself from others and generally follow the guidance given out by governments. 

 

There is a middle ground, Hammy.

 

They don't allow nut-based snacks on planes nowadays because of nut allergy sufferers. Likewise, at my son's school. This is despite, for the vast majority of the population, nuts being a healthy and nutritious snack. I'm not demanding that we shove our nuts in the faces of nut-allergy sufferers - I'm simply suggesting that banning nuts completely would be a daft move. Should we ban all dairy products due to some people's lactose intolerance? Where does it end, Hammy?

The only lacoste intolerance I have is the price of their Polo shirts. Good gear though, lasts for years.

[CavySlaveJambo]

14 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

There is no evidence of that. You can't prove a negative.  The virus is mainly spread in certain settings and attacks the weakest and most susceptible,we know that. Hospitals, care homes, food processing factories etc. They haven't been locked down. The vast majority of supermarket staff have worked all year, a lot of it maskless, encountering hundreds of people a day and not caught Covid. Locking down the entire nation was a "one-off" panic measure and cases were actually falling before it started. Going back to lockdown would be madness.

Lockdown was there to help the hospitals cope by preventing people getting sick and needing hospital care.  Wales is close to that point again now. 
 

Given the limitations of testing until the summer we do not know the true figure of how many people had Covid. Most of those with mild cases would not have been tested and very few cases would have been tested if they didn’t have a travel history or were a close contact with someone with Covid before that.   But the case numbers are there to see on the Public Health Scotland and they were generally rising. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

8 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It’s not the amount of people you have contact with, it is prolonged close contact. 
 

Rates were coming down when lockdown started?

I agree and yes, they had started to fall.

[A Boy Named Crow]

51 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Or an outbreak of common sense  

It's anecdotal,  but over here around the middle of the year, the state of Victoria was in a situation not quite as bad as what's happening in Scotland in terms of numbers. 

 

What followed was months of soul destroying lockdown, curfews etc.  That's what it took to get them to where they are now,  celebrating runs of "donut days" where they have zero new infections. Life is getting back to normal now, with sensible restrictions in place. 

 

I just don't see an appetite for that in the UK. Without it though, people will continue to die in their droves until the vaccine takes effect. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by A Boy Named Crow

[A Boy Named Crow]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

People have died, there's no getting away from that. In their droves directly from CV19? That's debatable.

 

However, it appears to be the only thing you're not allowed to die from nowadays.

It may be debatable,  but if I read this right,  the number of excess deaths in Scotland is give or take the number of covid deaths...I mean it could just be that loads of folk with covid got hit by buses. We'd need to see the raw data though...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-54989613

[A Boy Named Crow]

13 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Fair play, there have been excess deaths. There have also been excess deaths from non-CV19 factors. There has been a pandemic. But the breakdown of the deaths - among an age group who can and should have been shielded while allowing the rest of the population to continue relatively normal lives - shows that destroying the lives of working people in the name of fear hasn't really worked.

My post above about Victoria was pointing out that a lockdown, properly implemented,  actually did work. The problem in the UK has been an utterly shambolic, half-assed attempt by the government. Their ineptitude in handling this should really be considered criminal. There's an accepted wisdom now that lockdowns don't work, because the lockdown in the UK was so badly managed.  Lockdowns have worked elsewhere, they could've and should've worked in the UK too. 

[A Boy Named Crow]

16 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

That’s very dismissive of Public Health experts who look at the data, if lockdown measures was killing more people they would be shouting from the rooftops. My sister is a Public Health Statistician and is super intelligent, her boss is even more so, he says shielding doesn’t/can’t work. I’m going to go with him. 

The shielding fallacy was what I alluded to earlier. What I read was,  in China, Australia and NZ they treated it like a virus,  something that just needs to get ended asap.

 

The approach in Europe has been to treat it like a disease - which may be countered by targeting vulnerable groups etc...but it isn't a disease, it's a virus. Which is why it has thrived in Europe 

 

*Full disclosure, I know nothing about this,  just going off aritcles I've read...

Edited December 14, 2020 by A Boy Named Crow

[A Boy Named Crow]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I agree to an extent. If lockdown had been as harsh as China/Oz back in March/April, we probably wouldn't be still posting on this thread. However, the weak approach clearly didn't work, nor does the continued open/shut policy. Best just let us get on with it.

Helluva price a lot of folk are going to pay for that though, eh!

 

There isn't an election for years to come, what Boris should do is the nuclear approach - draconian lockdown, close the borders, close the schools, close everything. Let the virus die out in the UK because it can't spread.

 

He should cite extraordinary, unforeseen circumstances and delay Brexit by a year or five in order to give the economy a fighting chance of recovery. 

 

Don't worry though, he won't. 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

That’s very dismissive of Public Health experts who look at the data, if lockdown measures was killing more people they would be shouting from the rooftops. My sister is a Public Health Statistician and is super intelligent, her boss is even more so, he says shielding doesn’t/can’t work. I’m going to go with him. 

 

Sunetra Gupta - she’s one of the top jockeys at the university of oxford - professor of theoretical epidemiology - she says shielding does work - I’m going with her

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

That’s very dismissive of Public Health experts who look at the data, if lockdown measures was killing more people they would be shouting from the rooftops. My sister is a Public Health Statistician and is super intelligent, her boss is even more so, he says shielding doesn’t/can’t work. I’m going to go with him. 

 

see when Carl henegan - director of evidence based statistics at oxford - exposed the error in counting all positive test subsequent deaths as covid - even if ur eaten by a crocodile - was ur super intelligent sister and her even more intelligent boss aware of this anomaly (to be extremely generous) ?

 

no disrespect meant as it seems there are loads of super-intelligent people all saying different things so I think it’s reasonable even as lay people to be questioning of stats / guidance / directives etc

 

lockdown measures causing more deaths - how global is ur equation - the aforementioned sunetra Gupta reckons there could be 130 million excess starvation deaths globally as a result of multiple countries locking down - is that in ur equation or the equation that would cause shouting from roof tops ?

 

see the cancer patients who aren’t dead but who will now die in 6 years rather than 36 years due to presenting and/or being treated later than usual is there some allowance for them in the equation given they’re not actually dead yet?

[A Boy Named Crow]

1 hour ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

Sunetra Gupta - she’s one of the top jockeys at the university of oxford - professor of theoretical epidemiology - she says shielding does work - I’m going with her

 

 

The Sunetra Gupta who advocates herd immunity? Herd immunity being fairly roundly rubbished by other experts

here 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

here

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32167-X/fulltext

and here

https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/covid-19/2020/11/debunking-the-myth-of-non-vaccine-herd-immunity-in-covid-19/

 

It would be interesting to know what the professor's personal politics are  from what I've read and people I've spoken to,  belief in herd immunity (basically sacrificing people for a perceived economic benefit) tends to be most prevalent amongst your more right leaning free market types.

 

Dunno, she could be a card carrying commie,  still doesn't mean her herd immunity claims are shared by her peers...and if she's wrong about that, I'd be wary of her views on shielding too. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by A Boy Named Crow

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, jonesy said:

Thank goodness someone gets it. I appreciate your sacrifice; enjoy your four walls  

 

Pints and nips on me, lads!

 

---

 

Come on, you know that's not what I'm slavering on about. The reality is that most folk could carry on their normal lives relatively worry-free from the severest effects of Covid. If you are vulnerable to its impact, then it would make sense to wear a mask, distance yourself from others and generally follow the guidance given out by governments. 

 

There is a middle ground, Hammy.

 

They don't allow nut-based snacks on planes nowadays because of nut allergy sufferers. Likewise, at my son's school. This is despite, for the vast majority of the population, nuts being a healthy and nutritious snack. I'm not demanding that we shove our nuts in the faces of nut-allergy sufferers - I'm simply suggesting that banning nuts completely would be a daft move. Should we ban all dairy products due to some people's lactose intolerance? Where does it end, Hammy?

Why would they have to wear masks? As for the rest of your post, dear god, jonesy,

Coronavirus isn't a choice or something we can just, with total care, not catch. Having allergies is something with 100% care we can control. 

What a stupid post.  Next you'll be telling us we all should have a right to drive at 150 mph whilst drunk and free from seat belts. Driving is dangerous, but with limits and seat belts we make it as safe as possible. Now we have a vaccine, we can now, like flu etc... make living as safe as possible. But until then, use your nut. And do your best to keep everyone safe by doing as your asked. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by ri Alban

[ri Alban]

Tier 4 has proved to me, pubs are the cause of superspreading this thing. Numbers have plummeted, completely. 

[The Mighty Thor]

7 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

I saw something last week saying it didn’t make as much of difference as was initially made out. 
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-liverpool-mass-testing-pilot-not-reaching-citys-poorest-people-leaked-documents-show-12158317

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4436

Thanks for that, I hadn't seen it 👍

 

I'm interested more in the prevelance amongst age groups and sectors of transmission. 

 

As we're seeing up here its a steady flow of new positives every day and the mitigations aren't putting a dent in it. It bothers me from a 'whats the next move?' perspective as the utterly farcical 5 day free for all approaches and the inevitable carnage at the back of it. 

[Nucky Thompson]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Tier 4 has proved to me, pubs are the cause of superspreading this thing. Numbers have plummeted, completely. 

What about non essential shops, hairdressers etc? They were all closed in tier 4 too

Pubs have been largely closed since October 

[A Boy Named Crow]

19 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

herd Immunity hasn’t been rubbished. It’s just most people don’t understand what herd immunity is and have taken it to be something it’s not. The first article points that out pretty well 

 

Herd immunity works,  as we have seen with a number of diseases that been eradicated via vaccine. 
 

The Oxford vaccine to be used if approved is designed to obtain herd immunity . It will give people immmunity to onward transfer, eventually the viruses burns out as it can’t find any new carriers. I think they estimate about 60% take up vaccine will be required to achieve herd immunity. 
 

The pursuit of herd immunity via letting the virus go wild won’t work and hasn’t really been promoted by anyone even Sweden. (Your article conceded that) Immunity will occur in those that have had the disease. Increased immunity in the population is obviously beneficial but it’s not what herd immunity is and people have just latched on  to the term. 
 

The big problem we have with COVID is due to not understanding how long immune response lasts. This will apply to the vaccine also. There have been a few places which have had high infection rates but still suffered second waves, that’s pretty concerning as immunity seems to have provided all that much benefit at top level. 

In terms of how we tackle it in the U.K., I think we have got it wrong. However, it’s clear our policy is to hang on until the vulnerable are protected via the use of the vaccine. Hopefully we will then be able to get some return to normality as constant restrictions are brutal. 

I’m beginning to wonder if this things just burns out like we seen with some other things in the semi recent past. Though I think I’m probably straw clutching. 

Sorry, I was using herd immunity as lazy shorthand for allowing the virus to circulate until enough people are immune - not the vaccine driven approach. 

 

I'll have to read them again,  but I thought that was what she was championing, the gung-ho approach. 

 

I reckon,  speaking as an accountant with zero medical training,  it will "burn out", but only once the vaccines are knocking it out the park.  Given the progress they've been making on that front,  I'd rather the government erred on the side of caution just now, instead of risking lives unnecessarily.