General Election

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Conveniently forgetting this was a GE.

Fortunately for you.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Conveniently forgetting that Unionist Parties got over 60% of the vote.

You cannae polish a turd.

[Space Mackerel]

Fortunately for you.

Aw John. Did one of your many party's not win this time?

[Trapper John McIntyre]

if they despise the SNP then they must really, really despise the Tories

and really,really,really,really,really,really despise Labour

You did look at the Scottish results didn't you?

SNP with their second best ever result by an absolute mile

An absolute shoeing!!!

No Party will ever repeat the last Election where one Party one practically all the seats  but

this was still pretty much a landslide

 

SNP 35 Seats

Conservative 13 Seats

Labour 7 Seats

 

 

...and the result of all this 'success' was...?

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Aw John. Did one of your many party's not win this time?

All three parties won.

 

You lost.

[Boris]

A lot of sore losers desperate for an explanation out there. The answer is simple.

 

The majority of Scots despise the SNP and have collectively got together and gave them a shoeing.

 

It won't be the last either.

So you agree then that Labour voters voted Tory simply to give the SNP a "collective kicking"?

[Space Mackerel]

All three parties won.

 

You lost.

Maybe you're a jinx, maybe you should vote SNP.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

So you agree then that Labour voters voted Tory simply to give the SNP a "collective kicking"?

 

If they did, does it surprise you?

 

And if it does, where have you been for 10 years? Or am I just giving you the benefit of the doubt?

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Maybe you're a jinx, maybe you should vote SNP.

 

Maybe I will. They're needing all the help they can get these days.

 

Meanwhile, I see Eck's been succesful finding a new job.

 

 

[Space Mackerel]

Maybe I will. They're needing all the help they can get these days.

 

Meanwhile, I see Eck's been succesful finding a new job.

 

 

That's a right rib tickler of a photie [emoji106]

[Cruyff Turn]

Aye right what?

 

So the DUP represent Ulster Resistance?

A movement that doesn't exist and barely ever did.

 

I'll ask you again what do I pretend to be?

 

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I think you're a hun without the bus fare tbh.

[MacDonald Jardine]

I think you're a hun without the bus fare tbh.

What does that even mean?

You think I'm a Rangers fan who can't afford to go to Ibrox?

You couldn't be more wrong.

 

Even if I was what would I be doing on here?

 

What you really mean is I have views that don't accord with yours.

 

I don't hide them though which was your initial suggestion.

 

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[Cruyff Turn]

What does that even mean?

You think I'm a Rangers fan who can't afford to go to Ibrox?

You couldn't be more wrong.

 

Even if I was what would I be doing on here?

 

What you really mean is I have views that don't accord with yours.

 

I don't hide them though which was your initial suggestion.

 

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I don't really think that, I just know you hate it when folk start.

 

I'm happy for other people having different views but uncomfortable with people trying to water down the fact that the DUP are a sectarian cult riddled with former Terrorists and political views which don't have any place anywhere outside of Ulster which you took umbrage to otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

So you agree then that Labour voters voted Tory simply to give the SNP a "collective kicking"?

 

There will undoubtedly have been tactical voting from some people, there always is, however the stats don't support that any tactical voting by Labour voters resulted in the election of a Tory MP in a seat held by the SNP.

 

There were 7 constituencies were in the 2015 general election the Tories finished in second place behind the SNP and have now won that seat from the SNP.

In all 7 seats, Labour finished in a distant 3rd place, sometimes even in 4th place, so realistically the only two parties fighting for the seat where the SNP & the Tories.

 

The 7 constituencies, are as follows:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine

Angus

Banff & Buchan

Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

Dumfries & Galloway

Gordon

& Moray

 

All happen to be in the Highlands & The Borders, the very places Dugdale was on about, anyway if there was tactical voting by Labour voters switching to the Tories then these are the 7 constituencies we'd see it in and we should see the Labour vote decrease and the Tory vote increase.

But that's not what we find, as in 6 out of the 7 constituencies we see the Labour vote increase, sometimes by only a few hundred votes but there are also some which increase by several thousand votes. 

Surely if Labour voters voted Tory then the Labour vote would decrease, not the other way round and increase.

 

Only in Dumfries & Galloway did the Labour vote decease and it decreased by just over 3200 votes, but even then if every single one of those votes had went to the Tories the SNP should still have won as they had over a 6500 majority.

The SNP lost because their vote collapsed and that is the one common denominator in all 7 constituencies and that is the SNP vote decreased by thousands of votes, anything from 3000 to 11,000 votes down from 2015.

 

It appears to me that in the aforementioned constituencies the Tories won not because of any tactical voting by Labour voters but because people who voted for the SNP in 2015 ditched the SNP in 2017 and voted for the Tories instead.

Of course a real in-depth analysis may prove or disprove this but on the face of things it is looking very much like the winning margin of these seats by the Tories, very roughly corresponds to the number of votes lost by the SNP in that particular constituency.

 

Very roughly in the aspect that the SNP lost several thousand votes and the Tories gained several thousand votes in that particular constituency.

 

The SNP need to ask why people changed their vote from SNP to Tory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IMac]

A shoeing?

 

You lost! Scudded again.

 

Funny.

 

The bars aren't to scale.

[Space Mackerel]

Funny.

 

The bars aren't to scale.

Neither was the election pamphlets that were posted through my letterbox from Tory and Lib Dem canvassers.

[manaliveits105]

So losing over a third of your seats whilst seeing your ultimate goal disappear over the horizon is a cause for celebration aye ?

[pablo]

So losing over a third of your seats whilst seeing your ultimate goal disappear over the horizon is a cause for celebration aye ?

Yip, but remember that you are dealing with a cult. The SNP are a single issue party, their goal obviously being independence at any cost. On Thursday they were delivered a message by both left and right.

 

They'll attempt any sort of desperate spin they can, but it's over.

 

Scots have spoken again, just as we did in September '14.

[Vic Vespa]

Can I jog a few memories.Over the years we have had several YES voters saying that the Scottish vote at General Elections never influenced the outcome at UK level. Well they can't say that now. The 13 Scottish Tory MPs at Westminster have delivered a Tory led Government and prevented a progressive Labour led Alliance. And all because the obstinate SNP would not accept that Scotland clearly did not want IndyRef2. Scotland delivered a Tory Government at Westminster and Scotland is weeping

 

Theresa May got nearly everything wrong but she had Sturgeon for breakfast.

So did Dugdale advocating Labour supporters to vote Tory to stop the SNP not hinder a possible Labour/SNP alliance?

 

How a Labour leader can stand up and tell Labour voters to vote Tory and still be in a job astounds me.

 

The Tories are the enemy, way more than the SNP ever will be.

[Space Mackerel]

So losing over a third of your seats whilst seeing your ultimate goal disappear over the horizon is a cause for celebration aye ?

Still the largest party

Still won by a landslide

Chaos down South

Brexit still to come

 

But you kid yourself on it's all over.

[The White Cockade]

Yip, but remember that you are dealing with a cult. The SNP are a single issue party, their goal obviously being independence at any cost. On Thursday they were delivered a message by both left and right.

 

They'll attempt any sort of desperate spin they can, but it's over.

 

Scots have spoken again, just as we did in September '14.

 

You do realise that the SNP got 35 seats, Tories 13 and Labour 7 don't you

 

A cult? - grow up man

 

People can vote SNP or vote for anyone else, they can vote for Independence or not it's what voting is all about

 

But there is something vaguely sinister about all this anti SNP stuff on here

Quite frankly it's weird

[Victorian]

You do realise that the SNP got 35 seats, Tories 13 and Labour 7 don't you

 

A cult? - grow up man

 

People can vote SNP or vote for anyone else, they can vote for Independence or not it's what voting is all about

 

But there is something vaguely sinister about all this anti SNP stuff on here

Quite frankly it's weird

In general there's something a bit weird about the voting for the Tories because of zealous hostility to a referendum they insist with absolute conviction would fail.

 

So why not have one? Why not have the thing settled once and for all? Why deny others the democratic choice?

 

Strange. That's the cult of Scottish politics.

[EH11_2NL]

http://news.sky.com/story/dup-agrees-to-principles-of-confidence-and-supply-deal-with-tories-10911387

 

Sad stuff indeed. Relying on neanderthal bigots to run a country.

[Vic Vespa]

Conveniently forgetting that Unionist Parties got over 60% of the vote.

This was a Westminster election.

 

Yes voters are not all SNP.

 

So :

 

1) Not all Yes supporters voted, far from it.

2) Lots of Yes supporters voted Labour because of Corbyn

3) Hell I bet some Leaver/Yes supporters voted Tory because May will get us a hard brexit.

 

Who knows, end of day despite every party except the SNP making it about a referendum the SNP still strolled it. 

[Space Mackerel]

This was a Westminster election.

 

Yes voters are not all SNP.

 

So :

 

1) Not all Yes supporters voted, far from it.

2) Lots of Yes supporters voted Labour because of Corbyn

3) Hell I bet some Leaver/Yes supporters voted Tory because May will get us a hard brexit.

 

Who knows, end of day despite every party except the SNP making it about a referendum the SNP still strolled it.

That kind of reasoned, honest and analytical thought will get you nowhere on here. :-/

[jambos are go!]

So did Dugdale advocating Labour supporters to vote Tory to stop the SNP not hinder a possible Labour/SNP alliance?

 

How a Labour leader can stand up and tell Labour voters to vote Tory and still be in a job astounds me.

 

The Tories are the enemy, way more than the SNP ever will be.

Thats a shocker. Can you provide evidence?

 

Maybe you could also explain how your post is any way a response to my post?

[Space Mackerel]

This should guarantee a wee surge back up the polls if true.

 

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Thats a shocker. Can you provide evidence?

 

Maybe you could also explain how your post is any way a response to my post?

 

Tha Nats are truly losing their shit tonight.

[MacDonald Jardine]

I don't really think that, I just know you hate it when folk start. [emoji38]

 

I'm happy for other people having different views but uncomfortable with people trying to water down the fact that the DUP are a sectarian cult riddled with former Terrorists and political views which don't have any place anywhere outside of Ulster which you took umbrage to otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Sectarian?

Yes they are.

 

Former terrorists?

I don't think so.

 

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[56anawthat]

The Tories lost a load of seats in England (and their overall majority) but of course they won the election because they are by far the largest party and they (shock horror!) won some seats in Scotland.

Labour are still miles behind the Tories but they definitely won the election because under Corbyn, contrary to what the press and the polls had predicted, they won a lot more seats.

SNP lost 21 seats, some key personalities and some votes (possibly because of the threat of Indyref2) but they clearly won the election because they still hold most of the seats in Scotland.

The Libdems have still not recovered from the fallout from their disastrous coalition with the Tories, but also won the election because they got a few of these seats back.

The DUP policies may be out of step with the modern world, but they really won the election because now Theresa May needs them.

Plaid Cwmru is a tiny party but can claim to have won the election because they had their best ever result.

The Greens got hardly any votes but no doubt won the election because despite the 2-party squeeze their leader held on to her seat.

UKIP didn't win any seats and lost another leader but they had already won the election when England voted for Brexit.

 

Don't you just love it when everybody wins!?

[MacDonald Jardine]

In general there's something a bit weird about the voting for the Tories because of zealous hostility to a referendum they insist with absolute conviction would fail.

 

So why not have one? Why not have the thing settled once and for all? Why deny others the democratic choice?

 

Strange. That's the cult of Scottish politics.

You mean like the last "once in a generation ' referendum?

People are getting fed up of it and it's obvious now the SNP will keep going until they win one.

 

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[Space Mackerel]

Sectarian?

Yes they are.

 

Former terrorists?

I don't think so.

 

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Is it because they are Kafflick?

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/former-dup-council-candidate-sentenced-to-eight-years-for-pipebomb-attack-on-polish-neighbours-29206287.html

[Victorian]

You mean like the last "once in a generation ' referendum?

People are getting fed up of it and it's obvious now the SNP will keep going until they win one.

 

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We know there was a recent referendum but we also know that the proposal of a second one was clearly based on there being a material change of circumstances.

 

The material change of circumstances occured. It's real. Not a work of fiction. Strange then that, when the anti-ref side talk about their opposition to another referendum, the material change aspect is never recognised or acknowledged in any way.

 

It's a widely employed thing from the voter on the street to the political commentator in the article to the politician on the television. It's an important context to the debate that is routinely omitted and it's dishonest.

[MacDonald Jardine]

Is it because they are Kafflick?

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/former-dup-council-candidate-sentenced-to-eight-years-for-pipebomb-attack-on-polish-neighbours-29206287.html

Is this DUP policy ?

Do you fancy judging the SNP on what their prospective candidates, or even endorsed candidates, might do?

 

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[MacDonald Jardine]

We know there was a recent referendum but we also know that the proposal of a second one was clearly based on there being a material change of circumstances.

 

The material change of circumstances occured. It's real. Not a work of fiction. Strange then that, when the anti-ref side talk about their opposition to another referendum, the material change aspect is never recognised or acknowledged in any way.

 

It's a widely employed thing from the voter on the street to the political commentator in the article to the politician on the television. It's an important context to the debate that is routinely omitted and it's dishonest.

I'm not so sure it was based on a change of circumstances.

For the record I think Brexit may lead to another referendum. But not yet.

 

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[Space Mackerel]

Is this DUP policy ?

Do you fancy judging the SNP on what their prospective candidates, or even endorsed candidates, might do?

 

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You do seem to have a bit of a love in with all things Loyalist.

Care to share and get it off your chest?

[Victorian]

I'm not so sure it was based on a change of circumstances.

For the record I think Brexit may lead to another referendum. But not yet.

 

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It could not have been made any clearer. The scenario was framed as such well before the European referendum and all the way through to the point of voting through the bill in the Holyrood parliament.

 

That reminds me. Remember that? A democratic, parliamentary motion which was passed and then undemocratically binned. Another mysterious thing never mentioned by the referendumphobes.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Tory spiv on radio4 claims that they will have a vote to reduce the time limits for abortions as part of the deal with the DUP religious extremists .

 

Wonder if they plan to ban line dancing also .

[Doogz]

It could not have been made any clearer. The scenario was framed as such well before the European referendum and all the way through to the point of voting through the bill in the Holyrood parliament.

Would have been a lot clearer if they had added the "material change" caveat at the time of the "once in a generation" / "once in a lifetime" indy referendum rather than waiting until after that vote failed.

[deesidejambo]

I'm not so sure it was based on a change of circumstances.

For the record I think Brexit may lead to another referendum. But not yet.

 

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There was a change in circumstance, but Nicola went off on Indy2 within a couple of hours of the Brexit result announcement.

 

If she was smart she would have waited to see what impact the Brexit vote would have on Indy voters intentions, specifically to see if here 60% target was reached.

 

But she didn't.  she just went straight for it without thinking.      

 

Now she is locked-in to IndyRef2.       If she is smart she will bin it and wait for her 60%.  That will involve a bit of humility on her part.   But she has already demonstrated stupidity so I think she may just prolong the agony and divisiveness for everyone and plough on.

 

As Jo Swinson said  -  "Are you listening Nicola?"

[Victorian]

Would have been a lot clearer if they had added the "material change" caveat at the time of the "once in a generation" / "once in a lifetime" indy referendum rather than waiting until after that vote failed.

Not really. The process of bringing about the European referendum came after the independence referendum.

[Space Mackerel]

There was a change in circumstance, but Nicola went off on Indy2 within a couple of hours of the Brexit result announcement.

 

If she was smart she would have waited to see what impact the Brexit vote would have on Indy voters intentions, specifically to see if here 60% target was reached.

 

But she didn't. she just went straight for it without thinking.

 

Now she is locked-in to IndyRef2. If she is smart she will bin it and wait for her 60%. That will involve a bit of humility on her part. But she has already demonstrated stupidity so I think she may just prolong the agony and divisiveness for everyone and plough on.

 

As Jo Swinson said - "Are you listening Nicola?"

She never though.

 

She said there was a strong possibility of another referendum being called after the Brexit vote, it was in their manifesto.

 

She was pushed into it after TM told her that Scotland, Wales and NI would play no further talks in the process after they set down a fair set of proposals to keep Scotland in the EU.

 

These are the facts.

[Doogz]

Not really. The process of bringing about the European referendum came after the independence referendum.

Regardless - the once in a generation / lifetime lines shouldn't have been used.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Sunday papers reporting 5 Tory Spiv ministers trying to persuade Boris to stand against Maybot , he at the moment says he is backing her .

I expect we may see a stalking horse challenge coming up soon .

[jambos are go!]

"6062385" timestamp="1497130025"]We know there was a recent referendum but we also know that the proposal of a second one was clearly based on there being a material change of circumstances.

The material change of circumstances occured. It's real. Not a work of fiction. Strange then that, when the anti-ref side talk about their opposition to another referendum, the material change aspect is never recognised or acknowledged in any way.

It's a widely employed thing from the voter on the street to the political commentator in the article to the politician on the television. It's an important context to the debate that is routinely omitted and it's dishonest.[/quot

 

 

Its hard to envisage a bigger material change of circumstance than Brexit. And it looks like public opinion as expressed in the General Election will force the SNP to abandoned IndyRef2. Not only the SNP . Also my good self as a Unionist who relished an early opportunity to put the constututional issue to bed once and for all. Evidence that politics as someone once said is the art of the possible and the SNP and I have to accept that

 

For the future it has to be support at around 60% in the polls over an extended period because no change of circumstance will be bigger than Brexit.

 

have to see sustained support for independence at

[Space Mackerel]

"6062385" timestamp="1497130025"]We know there was a recent referendum but we also know that the proposal of a second one was clearly based on there being a material change of circumstances.

The material change of circumstances occured. It's real. Not a work of fiction. Strange then that, when the anti-ref side talk about their opposition to another referendum, the material change aspect is never recognised or acknowledged in any way.

It's a widely employed thing from the voter on the street to the political commentator in the article to the politician on the television. It's an important context to the debate that is routinely omitted and it's dishonest.[/quote

Its hard to envisage a bigger material change of circumstance than Brexit. And it looks like public opinion as expressed in the General Election will force the SNP to abandoned IndyRef2. Not only the SNP . Also my good self as a Unionist who relished an early opportunity to put the constututional issue to bed once and for all. Evidence that politics as someone once said is the art of the possible and the SNP and I have to accept that

 

For the future it has to be support at around 60% in the polls over an extended period because no change of circumstance will be bigger than Brexit.

 

 

have to see sustained support for independence at the 60% level in the polls

You can bubble away into your Union Jack tea towel after the economy tanks after Brexit and say don't say we warned you.

[Francis Albert]

She never though.

 

She said there was a strong possibility of another referendum being called after the Brexit vote, it was in their manifesto.

 

She was pushed into it after TM told her that Scotland, Wales and NI would play no further talks in the process after they set down a fair set of proposals to keep Scotland in the EU.

 

These are the facts.

Sorry, I remember Alex Salmond purring like on overfed cat after the Brexit vote and Nicola immediately talking about a second referendum being highly likely. To be fair much of the press here and abroad also leapt to the conclusion that the Brexit vote was a boost to the independence movement. In the States it is still repeated as a "fact" despite all evidence to the contrary from polls and real votes. The facts were and are that Brexit makes independence a much more difficult step than it was, threatening Scotland's trading relationship with its major trading partner withy whom its economy is intimately bound. Before Brexit independence with both Scotland and rUK remaining in the EU was, to coin a phrase, soft independence - not a lot in terms of the economic and trading environment would have changed. As for the proposals to keep Scotland in the EU while rUK left, that was the stuff of fantasy, which I have no doubt Nicola was told during her fruitless post- Ref1 beauty parade round Brussels and other European capitals, though perhaps too politely for her to understand. The SNP's reaction to Brexit is almost on a par with May's decision to call an election in terms of political ineptitude.

[Space Mackerel]

Funny.

 

The bars aren't to scale.

Here's a proper one

 

[Space Mackerel]

Sorry, I remember Alex Salmond purring like on overfed cat after the Brexit vote and Nicola immediately talking about a second referendum being highly likely. To be fair much of the press here and abroad also leapt to the conclusion that the Brexit vote was a boost to the independence movement. In the States it is still repeated as a "fact" despite all evidence to the contrary from polls and real votes. The facts were and are that Brexit makes independence a much more difficult step than it was, threatening Scotland's trading relationship with its major trading partner withy whom its economy is intimately bound. Before Brexit independence with both Scotland and rUK remaining in the EU was, to coin a phrase, soft independence - not a lot in terms of the economic and trading environment would have changed. As for the proposals to keep Scotland in the EU while rUK left, that was the stuff of fantasy, which I have no doubt Nicola was told during her fruitless post- Ref1 beauty parade round Brussels and other European capitals, though perhaps too politely for her to understand. The SNP's reaction to Brexit is almost on a par with May's decision to call an election in terms of political ineptitude.

I can't be bothered going over every point but Canada has different immigration laws I believe, state to state. So it's perfectly possible but involves a bigger direction to Federalism.

 

Anyway. Indy2 is miles off, we are looking at the immediate mess the UK is in currently. Too many people are distracting the current issues to what/may happen in 2-3 years.

[Francis Albert]

I can't be bothered going over every point but Canada has different immigration laws I believe, state to state. So it's perfectly possible but involves a bigger direction to Federalism.

 

Anyway. Indy2 is miles off, we are looking at the immediate mess the UK is in currently. Too many people are distracting the current issues to what/may happen in 2-3 years.

I didn't mention (and wasn't thinking about) immigration! On the topic of my post, do you think with the benefit of some hindsight the Brexit vote advanced or hindered progress towards independence? I seemed to remember you felt strongly (along with Alex and Nicola)  it was the former in the immediate post-Brexit aftermath.