The 2015 General Election Megathread

[Psychedelicropcircle]

The trend is the older you are the more likely you are to vote no. Now that coupled with the fact we have an ageing population would mean if there was another vote then no would prevail again.

 

I'm not getting any younger....I'll be raging if in my twilight years I have to become a unionist !

[TheMaganator]

The convener of the new Scottish Independence Party

http://www.aforceforgood.org.uk/affg/about/aboutali.html

That's me according to DC Jambo

 

How do you know it's him or is this just the rumours doing the rounds on Wings?

[HaymarketJambo]

The convener of the new Scottish Independence Party

http://www.aforceforgood.org.uk/affg/about/aboutali.html

 

I wish them well.

[Psychedelicropcircle]

No he's talking about the 18-25 generation who voted no by a majority. I was part of that demographic

 

You come across on the t'terweb as older and you seem to have Alzheimer's as you voted aye.

[TheMaganator]

http://m.scotsman.com/lifestyle/arts/news/snp-in-cronyism-row-over-t-in-the-park-grant-1-3855346

 

SNP give ?150k to T in the Park after a meeting set up by Angus Robertson's wife.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the explanation is for this. Cronyism is what Westminster gets up to, not guid Scottish folks

[Thunderstruck]

I do not see this changing. When that current demographic pass on there'll be another to take their place.

 

The No vote support in that age group wasn't because they're all tea towel collectors - it is because people who have worked hard all their lives don't want to risk a turbulent retirement to satisfy nationalism. That wont change. Those with the most to lose voted No. That will not change so long as the plans for independence remain on the back of a packet of cigarettes.

It never ceases to amaze that the pro-Indie faction are so adept at ignoring reported findings and attempt to turn supposition or invention into fact by constant repetition.

 

The clear evidence from last September was that the No Vote was in the majority in the in most groups and social glasses.

 

Cue reference to the Ashcroft Poll with his sample of 6 teenagers.

[coconut doug]

The trend is the older you are the more likely you are to vote no. Now that coupled with the fact we have an ageing population would mean if there was another vote then no would prevail again.

That is not a trend. There is no evidence to support the view that voters are more likely to change their vote to No as they get older. What is not in doubt is that new voters are predominantly Yes voters and that the deceased were largely No voters. It is in these areas of the demographic where the Yes/No split is most pronounced and where change is greatest. That change is inexorably towards Yes hence the trend. Using modern parlance, Tick Tock .   

[Jarhead]

I never mentioned the rosy world of the mines - But what the Tory Government at the time should have done is have plan B, to help these brave men and their families for life after the pits had gone.

 

In fairness to the Labour Party and the SNP on food banks they are only still up for these people that need to use them which is shameful in a rich Country.

Apologies if I was putting words into your mouth, my experience of people talking about heavy industry is usually a strangely romantic view that often includes a desire to return to the days of working down deep mine shafts or pouring molten lava in a foundry.

 

I agree that a plan b would have been good but I think a lack of political will(and not just from the tories) added to a reluctant grievance culture fostered in some of the effected communities has been responsible for seeing them left behind. In places where 1 industry dominated and then closed leaving destitution is not unique to Scotland.

[HaymarketJambo]

Apologies if I was putting words into your mouth, my experience of people talking about heavy industry is usually a strangely romantic view that often includes a desire to return to the days of working down deep mine shafts or pouring molten lava in a foundry.

 

I agree that a plan b would have been good but I think a lack of political will(and not just from the tories) added to a reluctant grievance culture fostered in some of the effected communities has been responsible for seeing them left behind. In places where 1 industry dominated and then closed leaving destitution is not unique to Scotland.

 Jarhead, not problem maybe I should explained myself a lot better, I agree on your points, it was how it was done at the time by Thatcher.

 

 What I meant by Linwood car factory, that was start of Scotland these factories closing down in the late 70s & 80s, but I did sound like those horrible Proclaimers, so I apologize for that as well. LOL         

[Jarhead]

On the topic of whose supporters will die first, wealthier no supporters appear to live to a ripe old age whereas poorer yes voters die shockingly young.

Better get that nhs sorted toot sweet nicki.

[Jarhead]

Jarhead, not problem maybe I should explained myself a lot better, I agree on your points, it was how it was done at the time by Thatcher.

 

 What I meant by Linwood car factory, that was start of Scotland these factories closing down in the late 70s & 80s, but I did sound like those horrible Proclaimers, so I apologize for that as well. LOL

 

Ha ha, the proclaimers did cross my mind when you first mentioned linwood but I feared I would be going to far if I'd brought that up.

[Hasselhoff]

On the topic of whose supporters will die first, wealthier no supporters appear to live to a ripe old age whereas poorer yes voters die shockingly young.

Better get that nhs sorted toot sweet nicki.

Yep, good point. It's pretty tragic that the vote we just had can't be respected and instead we have one side willing the other to hurry up and die so they can get their way.

[coconut doug]

Yep, good point. It's pretty tragic that the vote we just had can't be respected and instead we have one side willing the other to hurry up and die so they can get their way.

I'm not willing them to die, just pointing out the inevitable. What is a shame though is the way one side of this debate clings to the past and refuses to recognise the desire for change or that things do change. The vote has been respected though but when things change significantly it may be time for indy 2. Would you have us stuck in a union when the majority want out? Do you think it fair that a young person's vote full of hope and aspiration for the future should have the same value, as an octogenarian's vote based on past glories. If we had a lucidity test for 0ver 65's, that would probably be enough to carry the vote in favour of yes, as early as next week.

[Boris]

Those with the most to lose voted No. That will not change so long as the plans for independence remain on the back of a packet of cigarettes.

I don't disagree with that, however I suspect should there be another referendum then you will see a more coherent argument. Something, as I have posted before, you would have expected from a party whose raison d'etre is independence!

[GBJambo]

I'm not willing them to die, just pointing out the inevitable. What is a shame though is the way one side of this debate clings to the past and refuses to recognise the desire for change or that things do change. The vote has been respected though but when things change significantly it may be time for indy 2. Would you have us stuck in a union when the majority want out? Do you think it fair that a young person's vote full of hope and aspiration for the future should have the same value, as an octogenarian's vote based on past glories. If we had a lucidity test for 0ver 65's, that would probably be enough to carry the vote in favour of yes, as early as next week.

"Hope and aspiration" so you can only have that if you are a young yes voter.

The split of the 16-20 age group was pretty even.

[Jarhead]

I'm not willing them to die, just pointing out the inevitable. What is a shame though is the way one side of this debate clings to the past and refuses to recognise the desire for change or that things do change. The vote has been respected though but when things change significantly it may be time for indy 2. Would you have us stuck in a union when the majority want out? Do you think it fair that a young person's vote full of hope and aspiration for the future should have the same value, as an octogenarian's vote based on past glories. If we had a lucidity test for 0ver 65's, that would probably be enough to carry the vote in favour of yes, as early as next week.

Wow, someone obviously didn't pay attention to Ian Murrays election victory.

[coconut doug]

"Hope and aspiration" so you can only have that if you are a young yes voter.

The split of the 16-20 age group was pretty even.

No but you do have a greater personal interest in a larger part of the future.

 

Current polls 18-24 show massive Yes support. I suppose they have had 2 years to mature and weigh up information.

[Stuart Lyon]

Neil Hay got beat and he belittled the older constituents in Edinburgh South.

[coconut doug]

How does that work? All of those 18-24 year olds will have voted in the referendum. And as they grow up many will grow out of nationalism. 

See post 13667

[HaymarketJambo]

Neil Hay got beat and he belittled the older constituents in Edinburgh South.

 

 He did and quite rightly as well.

 But Labour lost everywhere else in Scotland including Edinburgh South West.    

[jambos are go!]

That is not a trend. There is no evidence to support the view that voters are more likely to change their vote to No as they get older. What is not in doubt is that new voters are predominantly Yes voters and that the deceased were largely No voters. It is in these areas of the demographic where the Yes/No split is most pronounced and where change is greatest. That change is inexorably towards Yes hence the trend. Using modern parlance, Tick Tock .

 

How can you say that there is no doubt new voters are predominantly YES when the majority voted NO in the Referendum less than a year ago. Wishful thinking methinks to put it mildly Edited August 11, 2015 by jambos are go!

[coconut doug]

How can you say that there is no doubt new voters are predominantly YES when the majority voted NO in the Referendum less than a year ago. Wishful thinking methinks to put it mildly

Latest opinion poll http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/snp-holds-poll-lead-in-spite-of-mixed-views-on-record-in-government  open full data table and look at page 7.  86% intend to vote SNP. It's not ridiculous to assume at least 60% of them would also vote Yes, given the chance.

[jake]

The Tories.

Yeah cos lookin after oxbridge benefits everyone

[coconut doug]

I wish that SNP supporters would refrain from using that argument. It's unpleasant and fails to acknowledge that a decent percentage of the elderly did vote Yes. Given that they were bombarded by an inherently biased press, scaring the life out of them with threats of pensions, mortgage rates etc., they deserve praise rather than referring to their imminent passing.

I'm not blaming anybody, neither am I belittling the elderly. I do genuinely take the view that wisdom often comes with age. I also think that generally the elderly are less self centred and many would vote more altruistically than younger voters, whether they voted Yes or No. Dying is I expect, unpleasant but my argument is statistical and in no way personal.

 

Your point reminds me of a reaction made by Johann Lamont when a Yes supporter pointed out to her that pensions were more affordable in Scotland because people did not live as long as the rUK. She was outraged that a Yes supporter should rejoice in the fact that Scots die younger. The Yes supporter was not doing that then and I am not doing it now.

[JamboX2]

 

No he's talking about the 18-25 generation who voted no by a majority. I was part of that demographic

 

You come across on the t'terweb as older and you seem to have Alzheimer's as you voted aye.

 

I voted yes. I'm 24 and will be 25 in November. If I come across as older on here fair play. But I don't remember watching Craig Levein, wasn't at Dens in '86 and my first attended cup final was '06 (credentials for my age!)

 

I voted yes because I thought "why not?" and I kind of felt a no vote would result in this kind of whataboutery (which I engage in tbf). In hindsight, and after considering what we've heard since, I wouldn't vote yes again until he yes campaign and the SNP got their act sorted on what they actually want and put more thought into it, as frankly they didn't and reaped what they sowed in terms of a rather narrow, abrasive and insular campaign which preached to the converted and didn't branch out (BOTH sides did a lot of that though!).

Edited August 11, 2015 by JamboX2

[JamboX2]

They heard that same spiel before the GE election too.

 

We all know what powers Scotland will be granted - nothing of value.

From Belgium that may well be your view. But from here in Scotland I think we're getting substantial welfare and taxation powers. Obviously not enough to satisfy an ardent supporter of independence, but the ability to establish new benefits, top up existing ones, levy income tax at all bands and adding in new taxes as they like is all a step forward to me. It's very comprehensive devolution to me and if you read the 1998 Act its enabling power not restrictive like the 1978 Act or like Welsh devolution. To me, and this is what bugs me a lot, there are thre powers at the disposal of the government to be very active and progressive and to radically change Scotland now. A lot doesn't need to wait. That is increasingly an excuse.

[jambos are go!]

Latest opinion poll http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/snp-holds-poll-lead-in-spite-of-mixed-views-on-record-in-government open full data table and look at page 7. 86% intend to vote SNP. It's not ridiculous to assume at least 60% of them would also vote Yes, given the chance.

This headline is misleading. No prominence is given to the fact that over 40% did not reveal their vote and were recorded as undecided, refused or wont vote. The SNP only got 366 definite votes out of 1029 polled. Over 30% undecided and we know who harvested these votes last September. The number of non committed young voters is slightly higher so they are as much up for grabs.

 

I think that the survey was carried out in part 'in the home' and not detached from prying eyes and ears perhaps.

Edited August 11, 2015 by jambos are go!

[JamboX2]

I've only been here for in Belgium for a year, but still pore over UK politics daily so manage to keep up to date.

 

Smith's initial proposal seemed to offer enough to satisfy the SNP/Independence supporters but that's been watered down considerably and it's going to fall well short of exectations.

 

Never had you down as a yes supporter.

I've asked you before to tell me how it's been watered down in a manner which can be shown based on powers agreed by the parties. I don't think you answered at the time. If you say it's not devo-max or quasi federalism then you're reading a subjective ness of what you believe that to be into it. The fact is the parties agreed a substantial devolution of powers to the Holyrood parliament and the Scottish government in particular. These are transformative powers. Powers which effect employment, welfare in general and taxation. It provides the scope to be different and to be so in a radical manner.

 

Although, to me there's been the power at the disposal of all devolved governments to do much much more and to redesign the delivery of services in Scotland and importantly the accountability of government. Neither has happened. From all the tendency is to centralise and erode accountability. Not good.

 

Smith has done wonders. Should be applauded so far. But it's not over yet and we have the amendment stage arriving soon. So I hope amendments are made to strengthen the devolution settlement and create a more cooperative Union.

 

Your point on me being a yes voter sums up the major issue I have with yes supporters - we aren't all SNP fan boys who think everything will be alright on the night. That believe Eck and Nicki are doing wonders and who think Scotland is amazing. I think the SNP are a flop, they talk big and do little, the nation isn't a great place to live and despite having the powers to better people they've chose to do little and spend a lot in providing a tax freeze which robs local government of the funds to pay for the services needed to redistribute wealth effectively and to encourage and increase social mobility.

 

I voted yes, but in hindsight I can't believe I did. The whole offer was a dreadfully uninspiring one and one which the SNP botched from day 1 of their campaign.

 

I'm a pragmatic person though, and I've always said the union isn't dead and isn't on its death bed. I think Smith is a great step forward and that with the end of the referendum period and the new powers to come it's time we start making Scotland better now and worry about the sovereignty thing later. I don't really care if we're sovereign or not, and nor do a majority of people in Scotland.

 

To me, the SNP should focus on being radical with the power they have. If they're and they do change Scotland for the better they might show that we can do big things at home which show we can do bigger things if independent. The softly softly all things to all people approach will gradually diminish support from all corners and leave people asking "why bother with independence?"

[coconut doug]

This headline is misleading. No prominence is given to the fact that over 40% did not reveal their vote and were recorded as undecided, refused or wont vote. The SNP only got 366 definite votes out of 1029 polled. Over 30% undecided and we know who harvested these votes last September. The number of non committed young voters is slightly higher so they are as much up for grabs.

 

I think that the survey was carried out in part 'in the home' and not detached from prying eyes and ears perhaps.

Surely they can't all be embarrassed Tories.

[Dunks]

The SNP are not performing well.

 

Most of the electorate are not convinced that they are performing as a government.

 

In Westminister, they are toothless in power and are a little short of mouthy vagrants.

 

The NHS is failing, the police service a shambles and they have no viable economic plan.

 

And yet, 45% of the country still had enough hope and belief that they are the right choice for Scotland. Just imagination what will happen will things start to click in place. Independence by 2022.

 

Small point, but I would suggest that 45% of those that voted had hope and belief that the right choice for Scotland was Independence. That doesn't necessarily mean SNP.

[aussieh]

Small point, but I would suggest that 45% of those that voted had hope and belief that the right choice for Scotland was Independence. That doesn't necessarily mean SNP.

Exactly, and people voted against the SNP/Salmond rather than voting for indy .

X2 says the SNP would need to do this and that why, its an indyref, not a election.

[TheMaganator]

This 'hope over fear' tag line is utter shite.

 

55% voted No in the hope that it would put the question to bed. It didn't.

 

'Hope' is just a word that was used when there were no coherent answers provided. 'I'm not sure what currency we'll use, if your pensions will be ok and what our EU status will be - but I'm closing my eyes and hoping everything will be barry.'

 

Three cheers for hope over fear though eh

[aussieh]

This 'hope over fear' tag line is utter shite.

 

55% voted No in the hope that it would put the question to bed. It didn't.

 

'Hope' is just a word that was used when there were no coherent answers provided. 'I'm not sure what currency we'll use, if your pensions will be ok and what our EU status will be - but I'm closing my eyes and hoping everything will be barry.'

 

Three cheers for hope over fear though eh

Stop talk nonsense about pensions, theyre protected by Law.

Hope is a socialist belief, so youll never understand.

[GBJambo]

It's awful that people hope to improve their lives.

 

Why can't you be one of those silent tories we read so much about!

And why do they need independence to improve their lives?

What is it that's stopping them getting on in life. Why would independence change this?

Edited August 12, 2015 by GBJambo

[Hasselhoff]

Stop talk nonsense about pensions, theyre protected by Law.

Hope is a socialist belief, so youll never understand.

It would have been the scottish governments responsibility to pay pensions in an indy Scotland as they stated in the White paper. With the deficit being one of the largest in Europe meaning increased taxes and reduced public spending just to have a status quo, it would mean even more to pay for the pensions of our elderly. Pretty sure I recall Scotland has an older population than rUK - we may die younger but there are more of us that are elderly so more people getting pensions.

 

At some point, the SNP are going to have to tell us what they are going to do with these new powers they get through Smith. If they can't do that and show that they can use then to good effect, there is no way we should be trusting them with full independence.

[Jarhead]

I'm not blaming anybody, neither am I belittling the elderly. I do genuinely take the view that wisdom often comes with age. I also think that generally the elderly are less self centred and many would vote more altruistically than younger voters, whether they voted Yes or No. Dying is I expect, unpleasant but my argument is statistical and in no way personal.

 

Your point reminds me of a reaction made by Johann Lamont when a Yes supporter pointed out to her that pensions were more affordable in Scotland because people did not live as long as the rUK. She was outraged that a Yes supporter should rejoice in the fact that Scots die younger. The Yes supporter was not doing that then and I am not doing it now.

I've always been curious what furious backtracking sounded like.

1 minute over 65s are self centred and border line do wally next they have the wisdom of age.

 

The reason lamont and other no voters got upset is that dying young is a very severe concern(and 1 the present Scottish government already has the powers to address) and is not a valid economic case for separation as it suggests that pensions are only affordable if the population has the decency to keep dying young.

[Stuart Lyon]

HD - so that's what makes them different! Not many signs of the SNP government using it's powers to help the working class, the poor or people with disabilities. If you know what they are doing in this respect could you please enlighten me!

Edited August 12, 2015 by Stuart Lyon

[TheMaganator]

"Thus the politics of hope is often little more than political escapism, telling voters what they want to hear rather than tackling inconvenient truths."

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/13584439.The_politics_of_hope_is_often_little_more_than_political_escapism/

[Jarhead]

And why do they need independence to improve their lives?

What is it that's stopping them getting on in life. Why would independence change this?

As holyrood is the only place that would give every citizen a tax exempt allowance of hope, I presume.

[jambos are go!]

Surely they can't all be embarrassed Tories.

Flippancy in the face of facts.

[HaymarketJambo]

"Thus the politics of hope is often little more than political escapism, telling voters what they want to hear rather than tackling inconvenient truths."

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/13584439.The_politics_of_hope_is_often_little_more_than_political_escapism/

 

 It's a good piece in the Herald, but get that from all from all parties promising the earth, it's in your own mind who you believe?     

[Hasselhoff]

They shouldn't be forced to any of it's (LIMITED) powers to mitigate cuts from a government that we did, and never have, voted for.

So they could help the poor in Scotland but will choose not to? I thought the Scottish are all up for paying higher taxes to ensure equality and socialist Scotland?

[Stuart Lyon]

HD - so as usual the SNP and it's supporters just wring their hands and blame it on Westminster!

[TheMaganator]

I spent a few months in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania at the start of 2011. Ask them about hope, it had nothing to do with political escapism.

 

You just don't get it.

I get it alright. 

 

Hope, in Scotland, is 'see that problem we have now - if we were independent we could solve that'.

 

It is all to do with escapism and the belief that somebody else is causing you problems and when you are free of them you'll be able to solve them. It is utter nonsense. 

 

We're getting lots of new powers shortly - let's see what the SNP plan to do with them. They have powers now that they do not use so that they can complain about not having powers. There will be nowhere to hide soon enough. 

[Stuart Lyon]

HD - I blame the SNP for not using the powers they have to mitigate the "austerity" driven by the Tories at Westminster.

[JamboX2]

Exactly, and people voted against the SNP/Salmond rather than voting for indy .

X2 says the SNP would need to do this and that why, its an indyref, not a election.

If you sell independence as a major change which will benefit all Scots, or most as it won't benefit everyone, then you need to show a competence in office in handling and dealing with major changes.

 

They've botched education and police reforms, adhered to the standard neo-liberal economic model they maintain a dislike for and the NHS is lurching from crises to crises.

 

People will vote SNP as they've been a competent government. But they won't win a referendum until they have:

 

1. A more inclusive attitude to other parties, groups and those on the right

2. Can show an ability to deliver major change successfully

3. Offer a more watertight economic case for independence.

 

At present they're not achieving anything there.

[Hasselhoff]

People know that all problems won't immediately disappear, that's ridiculous. People want Scotland ran by politicians who consider it's best interests. It's not a lot to ask.

 

The Smith commission is already watered down from it's original draft, the additional powers are limited and fall well short of what was promised.

The exactly why Holyrood exists - so decisions can be made with scotland in its best interests.

[JamboX2]

You seem more inclined to challenge the Yes supporters rather than No supporters, in my opinion. That is why I was surprised that you voted the way that you did.

 

I'll post the same link that I did the last time surrounding the Smith commission:

 

http://www.channel4.com/news/scotland-smith-commission-snp-david-cameron

I think it's clear what No is, provides and what extra powers are set to come.

 

Yes offered sharing a currency, a joint welfare system, a shared energy market and energy regulator and many other shared services. Why? Independence should be that. Independence. The model offered wasn't good enough.

 

It wasn't bold, it offered Scotland the chance to be a mini-UK in the North.

 

The campaign wasn't broad and civic, it was narrow and SNP dominated. It's also telling many of these groups were subsumed into the SNP soon after rather than remain separate and articulating their own views.

 

At least with No you knew that it was predominantly the Tories and their mates in business and Labour and it's Trade Union backers.

 

Don't get me wrong, the No camp was bad. Poorly lead and constructed. You can go read my posts on the Indy thread to see I criticised them as much! But Yes supporters and SNP supporters have repeatedly failed to accept, acknowledge and deal with their own failings from the referendum. Instead it has been a story of media bias, dirty tricks and lies and scaremongering. Sorry to say, it was the Yes campaign's duty to rebut those positions, and they monumentally failed to do so.

[TheMaganator]

People know that all problems won't immediately disappear, that's ridiculous. People want Scotland ran by politicians who consider it's best interests. It's not a lot to ask.

 

The Smith commission is already watered down from it's original draft, the additional powers are limited and fall well short of what was promised.

It does not fall well short of what was promised - we were promised 'extensive new powers' in the Vow by the governing parties of Westminster at the time. That is what we are getting. 

 

It is being delivered on time. 

 

You are peddling unfounded grievance to further your cause. 

[jambo1185]

This is a good interview with Kez

 

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1326393-stephen-daisley-interviews-scottish-labour-leadership-hopeful-kezia-dugdale/

 

Sadly (or not really from my perspective I suppose), her key education speech yesterday was very weak, she's not really came out with anything barnstorming during the leadership campaign.