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The 2015 General Election Megathread

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

As the topic says: the place for predictions, debates, sharing wee tit bits, and of course, bickering and arguing. 

 

Conservatives and Labour have traded barbs already; Tories getting it tight for using a photo of a road in Germany; Murphy and Abbott creating Labour divisions already; Farage not looking so good in South Thanet; Lib Dems copying Tory and Labour attack lines, and getting dutifully ignored; SNP predicted for a bonanza of seats and the possible Westminster slithering back of Salmond. 

 

Ready, set, go. 

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

So if a poll of polls as of today is replicated in May this is what the result would be (from the New Statesman's nifty election website May2015.com):

 

ScreenShot2015-01-06at181919_zpsb5f90190

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The Real Maroonblood

So if a poll of polls as of today is replicated in May this is what the result would be (from the New Statesman's nifty election website May2015.com):

 

ScreenShot2015-01-06at181919_zpsb5f90190

That would be interesting.

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Gizmo

So if a poll of polls as of today is replicated in May this is what the result would be (from the New Statesman's nifty election website May2015.com):

 

ScreenShot2015-01-06at181919_zpsb5f90190

Salmond would hardly be slithering back in those circumstances. It's obvious Labour will get a slap for their complicity in cosying up to the tories and also because that behaviour has finally cemented many voters view that labour/tory are almost the same party in far too many ways. But to that extent - it seems staggering.

 

And what's up with UKIP? Why where they so feted by the MSM and the BBC when they are not, on those projections, even overtake the lib-dems nor have any influence in a coalition?

 

 

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TheMaganator

Bookies are saying the SNP won't get the bumper bonanza that the polls suggest - that'll be an interesting one.

 

They'll definitely knick a few off labour but I can't see the 40 odd that the polls suggest.

 

UKIP will also do poorly.

 

Anyone other than RedEd and labour would be romping it IMO - I just can't see him as a statesman at all.

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TheMaganator

Salmond would hardly be slithering back in those circumstances. It's obvious Labour will get a slap for their complicity in cosying up to the tories and also because that behaviour has finally cemented many voters view that labour/tory are almost the same party in far too many ways. But to that extent - it seems staggering.

 

And what's up with UKIP? Why where they so feted by the MSM and the BBC when they are not, on those projections, even overtake the lib-dems nor have any influence in a coalition?

 

 

It's probably to do with the fact that their 'rise' is a bit more interesting than the usual red v blue arguments.

 

That and the fact that we'll get a referendum on the EU if the Tories get in.

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

Salmond would hardly be slithering back in those circumstances. It's obvious Labour will get a slap for their complicity in cosying up to the tories and also because that behaviour has finally cemented many voters view that labour/tory are almost the same party in far too many ways. But to that extent - it seems staggering.

 

And what's up with UKIP? Why where they so feted by the MSM and the BBC when they are not, on those projections, even overtake the lib-dems nor have any influence in a coalition?

 

They'll be hammered by FPTP, the fact that their support doesn't have any real strongholds, and the Conservative argument of 'vote UKIP, get Miliband'. 

 

Bookies are saying the SNP won't get the bumper bonanza that the polls suggest - that'll be an interesting one.

 

They'll definitely knick a few off labour but I can't see the 40 odd that the polls suggest.

 

UKIP will also do poorly.

 

Anyone other than RedEd and labour would be romping it IMO - I just can't see him as a statesman at all.

 

I saw today that Ladbrokes have moved the SNP to under evens to take Glasgow North (IIRC) - that's pretty big.

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Gizmo

Party Y say: Vote X get Z.

Most people, surely, see through these arguments nowadays?

Also I noticed Murphy's Scottish Labour doing a David Murray and pledging: 1000 nurses more than anything the SNP offer. Bearing in mind this is a General Election coming up, what on earth is that about?

Does he really think in any case that the way to win over lapsed Labour voters is to play Billy Big-baws? I'm not a huge fan of Dugdale but at least not every utterance from her is combative and all 'look-at-me'.

 

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JamboX2

Party Y say: Vote X get Z.

 

Most people, surely, see through these arguments nowadays?

 

Also I noticed Murphy's Scottish Labour doing a David Murray and pledging: 1000 nurses more than anything the SNP offer. Bearing in mind this is a General Election coming up, what on earth is that about?

 

Does he really think in any case that the way to win over lapsed Labour voters is to play Billy Big-baws? I'm not a huge fan of Dugdale but at least not every utterance from her is combative and all 'look-at-me'.

 

 

Bit like the old SNP pledge of a 1000 more coppers than the 500 pledged by Labour?

 

Murphy was actually talking about why a Labour vote benefitted Scotland. Labour become the government. They impose a mansion tax. The money raised leads to increased consequentials for Scotland, Wales and NI. He uses that money for 1000 more nurses.

 

It also picks a fight with London Labour, and they reacted. Which adds credence to two things voters in Scotland have called on:

 

Stand up to London

Be your own man

 

Both show that. Add in a catchy phrase like "London benefits from our oil money, so we should benefit from the mansion tax, that's the Union I want to see". It works as a play.

 

Its as potent as the Welsh Labour clear red line from London under Morgan and Jones. So its not unusual.

 

The SNP also automatically cant disagree so play the man. They too want the cash out of London when in the UK.

Edited by JamboX2

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Geoff Kilpatrick

I'd like to wish the UUP good luck against the DUPpers but that is farting against thunder.

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Psychedelicropcircle

Agent jimbob hard at work^ then the London buffoon gets some media time. Pantomime season!

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His name is

Fed up hearing about it already!

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JamboX2

I'd like to wish the UUP good luck against the DUPpers but that is farting against thunder.

Read 5 Days in May. About the coalition talks from Labours view. Apparently Brown spoke to Peter Robinson on the phone on the day after the election (along with Jones and Salmond) and he told him that he'd already told Cameron to **** off due to the Tories joining up with the UUP.

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jambos are go!

The SNP claim the Smith commisions are inadequate yet Sturgeon was widely quoted yesterday as saying you need to vote SNP in May to ensure the extensive new powers would be delivered. They will say anything and cant be trusted IMO.

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Geoff Kilpatrick

Read 5 Days in May. About the coalition talks from Labours view. Apparently Brown spoke to Peter Robinson on the phone on the day after the election (along with Jones and Salmond) and he told him that he'd already told Cameron to **** off due to the Tories joining up with the UUP.

No thanks

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The White Cockade

The SNP claim the Smith commisions are inadequate yet Sturgeon was widely quoted yesterday as saying you need to vote SNP in May to ensure the extensive new powers would be delivered. They will say anything and cant be trusted IMO.

politician in vote for us shock!

that's what they do at elections...

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2NaFish

hope labour get absolutely horsed.

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JamboX2

No thanks

As someone who knows little about Northern Irish politics, what is different between the UUP and DUP? I understand it was a big shift between the two parties in controlling the unionist mantle there but little beyond that.

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tartofmidlothian

Good thread. :thumbsup:

 

Labour will win a very few more seats than the Tories. The SNP will come third, a few seats ahead of the Lib Dems. UKIP won't reach double figures. Then things will get interesting.

 

All IMO.

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tartofmidlothian

Bookies are saying the SNP won't get the bumper bonanza that the polls suggest - that'll be an interesting one.

 

They'll definitely knick a few off labour but I can't see the 40 odd that the polls suggest.

 

UKIP will also do poorly.

 

Anyone other than RedEd and labour would be romping it IMO - I just can't see him as a statesman at all.

I can't see the 40 odd SNP seats either, but if they made 20-30 they'd have a real chance of coming third.

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TheMaganator

The SNP claim the Smith commisions are inadequate yet Sturgeon was widely quoted yesterday as saying you need to vote SNP in May to ensure the extensive new powers would be delivered. They will say anything and cant be trusted IMO.

Not just inadequate but that we'd all been lied to a duped/misled with them...

 

They can do no wrong though, in they eyes of their followers

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Rand Paul's Ray Bans

Party Y say: Vote X get Z.

 

Most people, surely, see through these arguments nowadays?

 

I think there'll be a lot of people that'll fall for Labour's 'vote SNP, get Tories' in the polling booths, too - it's the same as Better Together playing on the risks of independence in the referendum: it plays in the back of voters minds. 

 

It is definitely a cynical soundbite, though. 

 

Also I noticed Murphy's Scottish Labour doing a David Murray and pledging: 1000 nurses more than anything the SNP offer. Bearing in mind this is a General Election coming up, what on earth is that about?

 

Does he really think in any case that the way to win over lapsed Labour voters is to play Billy Big-baws? I'm not a huge fan of Dugdale but at least not every utterance from her is combative and all 'look-at-me'.

 

It looks a lot like playing to the gallery to me. Not only does it allow Murphy to look the big man standing up to Westminster Labour, but it allows Labour's prospective candidate's for London Mayor to sound off in defence of Londoners. 

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Geoff Kilpatrick

As someone who knows little about Northern Irish politics, what is different between the UUP and DUP? I understand it was a big shift between the two parties in controlling the unionist mantle there but little beyond that.

The UUP were the establishment Unionists that were born to rule from the formation of Northern Ireland. The DUPpers, on the other hand, were Paisley acolytes.

 

That's basically it.

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JamboX2

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/almost-nobody-in-the-uk-is-opposed-to-rent-controls-for-housing-9955679.html

 

Only 6.8% of the population are strongly or somewhat against rent controls. I'd imagine we will see all parties lapping up this untapped well of political kudos any day now.

To be honest, rent is generally too high in our big cities. Edinburgh has some of the highest rents in the UK for average properties. Be very happy to see laws on rents tightened and some controls brought back.

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The Mighty Thor

Party Y say: Vote X get Z.

 

Most people, surely, see through these arguments nowadays?

 

Also I noticed Murphy's Scottish Labour doing a David Murray and pledging: 1000 nurses more than anything the SNP offer. Bearing in mind this is a General Election coming up, what on earth is that about?

 

Does he really think in any case that the way to win over lapsed Labour voters is to play Billy Big-baws? I'm not a huge fan of Dugdale but at least not every utterance from her is combative and all 'look-at-me'.

 

 

Murphy reverting to his bullying, my way or the highway type already. Shocked.

 

He'll come unstuck once people start to scratch beneath his 'man of the people' veneer.

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Sarah O

Looking forward to labour collapsing.

 

Other than that, meh. As a nation we've made our bed so we can just shut up and eat our cereal.

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King prawn

Good thread. :thumbsup:

 

Labour will win a very few more seats than the Tories. The SNP will come third, a few seats ahead of the Lib Dems. UKIP won't reach double figures. Then things will get interesting.

 

All IMO.

Very much the stance I'm taking. I have a feeling the lib dems might not do as bad as I think(want) them to do.

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TheMaganator

Looking forward to labour collapsing.

 

Other than that, meh. As a nation we've made our bed so we can just shut up and eat our cereal.

Even if labour collapse means tory rule?

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Boris

Even if labour collapse means tory rule?

I think he means labour collapse in Scotland. A bit like your mob did from 1983 onwards.

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JamboX2

My hope for a hung parliament in May, where a progressive alliance of centre-left parties may develop a working coalition or voting pact, would be electoral reform. A fairer voting system. Slowing austerity would be a bonus as well. Achievable things should be the aim. Pragmatism should rule the next parliament for the left.

 

A PR Westminster could right a lot of wrongs and help parties gain seats in areas once unachievable to them to be truly broad parties representing many. If Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens, even a LibDems without Clegg led by their left again, could in a minority Labour government help create a new politics.

 

To get there the spite has to go. And that triumphalism of others defeats or mistrust of one another has to go aswell. The failure of the left is an inability to work together.

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tartofmidlothian

My hope for a hung parliament in May, where a progressive alliance of centre-left parties may develop a working coalition or voting pact, would be electoral reform. A fairer voting system. Slowing austerity would be a bonus as well. Achievable things should be the aim. Pragmatism should rule the next parliament for the left.

 

A PR Westminster could right a lot of wrongs and help parties gain seats in areas once unachievable to them to be truly broad parties representing many. If Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens, even a LibDems without Clegg led by their left again, could in a minority Labour government help create a new politics.

 

To get there the spite has to go. And that triumphalism of others defeats or mistrust of one another has to go aswell. The failure of the left is an inability to work together.

:spoton:

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2NaFish

nambla wouldn't struggle against that shower.

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Boris

 

I get where the article is coming from - the polls give an overall intention, but when that is applied at constituency level, it doesn't necessarily equate.  

 

Such is FPTP.

 

The tactical voting will be interesting.  Will Labour voters really vote Tory just to halt the SNP, for example, or Tories vote Labour etc etc?

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XB52

no way will the SNP get 40+ seats. They will be doing fantastically well to get 20 or more but this will be portrayed as a defeat for them in the MSM. I really hope the liberals get trounced all over the UK. As for labour, I am sure the sheep will turn back up and vote for them cos their Dad/Grandad did but I really hope I am wrong. Any labour party that can have such a right-wing guy as Murphy as leader is no labour party

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XB52

I get where the article is coming from - the polls give an overall intention, but when that is applied at constituency level, it doesn't necessarily equate.  

 

Such is FPTP.

 

The tactical voting will be interesting.  Will Labour voters really vote Tory just to halt the SNP, for example, or Tories vote Labour etc etc?

in a way it is the same as the referendum. The SNP want what is best for Scotland, labour/tory in Scotland want what is worst for the SNP. They will play the 'vote SNP get labour/tory'; the SNP will say vote SNP get SNP 

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TheMaganator

in a way it is the same as the referendum. The SNP want what is best for Scotland, labour/tory in Scotland want what is worst for the SNP. They will play the 'vote SNP get labour/tory'; the SNP will say vote SNP get SNP

Nope. The SNP want what's best for them to achieve independence. All they do is what they see as being best to achieve that.

 

338D1F2B-7774-4986-AF88-FC25DC83614A_zps

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Boris

Nope. The SNP want what's best for them to achieve independence. All they do is what they see as being best to achieve that.

 

338D1F2B-7774-4986-AF88-FC25DC83614A_zps

 

Surely an SNP leader would say that though?  That is, after all, their ultimate goal.

 

Interesting to read Salmond saying Home Rule is now the objective.  Gradualism it would seem.

 

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/the-alex-salmond-interviews-day-1-home-rule-is-my-goal-1.776652

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chuck berrys hairline

Looking forward to labour collapsing.

 

Other than that, meh. As a nation we've made our bed so we can just shut up and eat our cereal.

This in spades. Anyone moaning about Westminster or english/british parties had their chance! Spineless ***** Edited by chuck berrys hairline

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Psychedelicropcircle

Nope. The SNP want what's best for them to achieve independence. All they do is what they see as being best to achieve that.338D1F2B-7774-4986-AF88-FC25DC83614A_zps

 

Popped in here to see your positive mandate for the Tories, can see it's all about hating the SNP, considering withdrawing your chocolate Tory tag.

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Masonic

id just like to congratulate mr milliband in advance well done

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jambo-fletch

Just seen that Cameron is refusing to take part in the public debate's unless the Green Party are involved!

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Cade

Scandalous ruling by Ofcom today.

 

Ruling that the Greens are not a major party and therefore have no right to take part in any debates (and get less party broadcasts too) whereas UKIP are counted as a major party is a disgrace.

 

UKIP are being jemmied into the establishment by the media barons and trying to ignore parties like the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru is shocking behaviour.

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TheMaganator

Scandalous ruling by Ofcom today.

 

Ruling that the Greens are not a major party and therefore have no right to take part in any debates (and get less party broadcasts too) whereas UKIP are counted as a major party is a disgrace.

 

UKIP are being jemmied into the establishment by the media barons and trying to ignore parties like the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru is shocking behaviour.

Big Davy C agrees with you re the Greens http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30726499

 

 

Popped in here to see your positive mandate for the Tories, can see it's all about hating the SNP, considering withdrawing your chocolate Tory tag.

Cheers, I am not sure I know what you are talking about though. 

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AlphonseCapone

Scandalous ruling by Ofcom today.

 

Ruling that the Greens are not a major party and therefore have no right to take part in any debates (and get less party broadcasts too) whereas UKIP are counted as a major party is a disgrace.

 

UKIP are being jemmied into the establishment by the media barons and trying to ignore parties like the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru is shocking behaviour.

Embarrassing, what have they got, 1 or 2 MPs who defected from the tories?

 

They are a middle class BNP

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TheMaganator

Embarrassing, what have they got, 1 or 2 MPs who defected from the tories?

 

They are a middle class BNP

The more the loonies parties get coverage the more they are exposed for being loony. I 'd get them all in and let the voters decide who they want to vote for. 

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