The 2015 General Election Megathread

[jambo1185]

Jesus there's another leaders debate tonight.

[JamboX2]

Labour are apparently preparing for a second election in the autumn.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Labour are apparently preparing for a second election in the autumn.

 

More tears and snotters all round!

[Boab]

Labour are apparently preparing for a second election in the autumn.

I would imagine all parties would have some planning in place if some of the " no deal" chat is to be believed.

[deesidejambo]

Seems like tactical voting catching on with first real evidence

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-scottish-tory-voters-tactically-voting-for-labour-to-stop-snp-10219743.html

Expect a lot more of that in the last days.  UKIP voters in England drifting back to Tory to keep Labour out and Tories voting Liberal in Gordon to keep Eck out.     And the Ashcroft polls also suggesting Tories voting en masse for Jim Murphy!!!!!   You couldn't make this up.  The "tears and snotters" is going to be magic to watch on election night.  I've got the booze in.  And some crisps.

 

Then after that the double tears and snotters as QOS dump the Govan toothless.    And before all that two Champions League semis to watch.    I love May I do.

[Guest Trapper John]

David Coburn on Sunday Politics just now. Car crash tv personified.

 

What a clown and a what a disgrace he is.

[JamboX2]

I would imagine all parties would have some planning in place if some of the " no deal" chat is to be believed.

I don't think a deal has been written off by Labour with the SNP. When you hear Miliband answer that question he's effectively left it open to issue by issue. Which was how Salmond ran his government due to the LibDems refusing to his terms for supply and confidence.

 

Still expect an Ed Miliband to be the next prime minister. Reckon it'll last two years and there'll be a second election. Get the devolved and London elections out the road and implement his most 'popular' policies before holding a second election. (Which he'd do by staging a confidence vote and loosing it, if no government is formed after two weeks the nation votes again).

Edited May 3, 2015 by JamboX2

[Boab]

I don't think a deal has been written off by Labour with the SNP. When you hear Miliband answer that question he's effectively left it open to issue by issue. Which was how Salmond ran his government due to the LibDems refusing to his terms for supply and confidence.

 

Still expect an Ed Miliband to be the next prime minister. Reckon it'll last two years and there'll be a second election. Get the devolved and London elections out the road and implement his most 'popular' policies before holding a second election. (Which he'd do by staging a confidence vote and loosing it, if no government is formed after two weeks the nation votes again).

This was my thinking way back in the thread.

A full term government looks very unlikely the way things are shaping up.

Would this be good i.e. forcing governments to make concessions they otherwise wouldn't consider? 

Or would any turbulence be disastrous for the economy?

[aussieh]

David Coburn on Sunday Politics just now. Car crash tv personified.

 

What a clown and a what a disgrace he is.

Tory light

[JamboX2]

This was my thinking way back in the thread.

A full term government looks very unlikely the way things are shaping up.

Would this be good i.e. forcing governments to make concessions they otherwise wouldn't consider?

Or would any turbulence be disastrous for the economy?

Works in other comparable countries. Canada spent the early part of the last decade with minority government.

 

It does force compromise on parties. But obviously that's a two way street and both sides need to bend a bit.

 

My concern would be the SNP using their influence to force a second referendum after the NEXT Holyrood election as it's very likely they'll include that in their Holyrood manifesto. That to me wouldn't be constructive for anyone. But that'd be democracy for you.

 

If they use their influence to push on less austerity or on electoral reform, things that would genuinely help people UK wide or invigorate democracy, I'd be for it.

[Cade]

So Labour are planning a second election.

Looks like Mental Ed really is going to cut Scotland out of the democratic process after all.

 

He's telling the people of Scotland that their votes don't count unless they're Labour votes.
That the will of the Scottish people only counts if it benefits him. 

That he would really rather never rule than accept the democratic will of one of the nations of these islands.

 

That would kill his precious United Kingdom stone dead. 

Madness.

[Stuart Lyon]

What about the SNP more or less telling their opponents that their vote doesn't count i.e. preparing for a second independence referendum?

[JAYEL]

Labour are apparently preparing for a second election in the autumn.

 

 

Do they have the cash ?

[JamboX2]

So Labour are planning a second election.

Looks like Mental Ed really is going to cut Scotland out of the democratic process after all.

 

He's telling the people of Scotland that their votes don't count unless they're Labour votes.

That the will of the Scottish people only counts if it benefits him.

That he would really rather never rule than accept the democratic will of one of the nations of these islands.

 

That would kill his precious United Kingdom stone dead.

Madness.

What are you on?

 

Sturgeon is equally saying that the only way a Scottish vote is worth anything is to vote SNP, because they're intrinsically more Scottish. Which is equally condescending as any only a Labour vote will count nonsense.

 

If Ed forms a minority government and he struggles to pass anything, the SNP don't play ball fairly in his view or the Tories start blocking key aspects of his legislative program and he eventually looses a confidence vote - which is key element here - then he will have to fight another election.

 

Just because he is planning for a second election sooner than the next scheduled election in 2020 doesn't mean he's being undemocratic or disrespecting anyone in Scotland or any other nation of the UKs vote, it means he's preparing for the worst case scenario of being unable to govern.

 

Governments are elected to implement manifestos. If he ends up being a lame duck, same for Cameron, then what's the point in being in the job?

 

As has been said on here repeatedly, the SNP have no bargaining position here. Miliband is rightly playing the election as "I want a majority, I'm not considering anything else." Why shouldn't he? The SNP think they've got him and Labour cornered. They don't. Sturgeon has ruled out any form of deal with Cameron (utterly ridiculous to do so when he'd likely offer full fiscal autonomy in return for supply and confidence). So she can only back or sack Labour. All Labour have to do is bring a queens speech and a budget to the house and say "here we are, vote for it or we go to he polls again".

 

That's not disrespecting anyone's vote. It's bad tactics by the SNP.

[JamboX2]

Do they have the cash ?

Probably not. Nobody does. But the unions will step up with money if it's left to a second election this year and there's the threat of a Tory government.

[JAYEL]

What are you on?

 

Sturgeon is equally saying that the only way a Scottish vote is worth anything is to vote SNP, because they're intrinsically more Scottish. Which is equally condescending as any only a Labour vote will count nonsense.

 

If Ed forms a minority government and he struggles to pass anything, the SNP don't play ball fairly in his view or the Tories start blocking key aspects of his legislative program and he eventually looses a confidence vote - which is key element here - then he will have to fight another election.

 

Just because he is planning for a second election sooner than the next scheduled election in 2020 doesn't mean he's being undemocratic or disrespecting anyone in Scotland or any other nation of the UKs vote, it means he's preparing for the worst case scenario of being unable to govern.

 

Governments are elected to implement manifestos. If he ends up being a lame duck, same for Cameron, then what's the point in being in the job?

 

As has been said on here repeatedly, the SNP have no bargaining position here. Miliband is rightly playing the election as "I want a majority, I'm not considering anything else." Why shouldn't he? The SNP think they've got him and Labour cornered. They don't. Sturgeon has ruled out any form of deal with Cameron (utterly ridiculous to do so when he'd likely offer full fiscal autonomy in return for supply and confidence). So she can only back or sack Labour. All Labour have to do is bring a queens speech and a budget to the house and say "here we are, vote for it or we go to he polls again".

 

That's not disrespecting anyone's vote. It's bad tactics by the SNP.

 

 

They can have as many elections that they want but no party will ever get a majority and thay are going to have to deal with that.

 

 

The SNP are right to dismiss a deal  with the tories because that is the will of the Scottish electorate

[Boab]

Works in other comparable countries. Canada spent the early part of the last decade with minority government.

 

It does force compromise on parties. But obviously that's a two way street and both sides need to bend a bit.

 

My concern would be the SNP using their influence to force a second referendum after the NEXT Holyrood election as it's very likely they'll include that in their Holyrood manifesto. That to me wouldn't be constructive for anyone. But that'd be democracy for you.

 

If they use their influence to push on less austerity or on electoral reform, things that would genuinely help people UK wide or invigorate democracy, I'd be for it.

Totally agree but I can't see the Indy issue taking a back seat with their ratings so high.

Shame because if the Indy issue was to be shelved for a few years we could have a progressive coalition in the UK.

[Gorgiewave]

So Labour are planning a second election.

Looks like Mental Ed really is going to cut Scotland out of the democratic process after all.

 

He's telling the people of Scotland that their votes don't count unless they're Labour votes.

That the will of the Scottish people only counts if it benefits him. 

That he would really rather never rule than accept the democratic will of one of the nations of these islands.

 

That would kill his precious United Kingdom stone dead. 

Madness.

 

What are you talking about? The SNP will have, at the most, 59 MPs (9%) on 4.5% of the vote. This does not entitle them to anything automatically. Why do you think you're entitled to anything when you're only standing in 9% of seats?

[JamboX2]

They can have as many elections that they want but no party will ever get a majority and thay are going to have to deal with that.

 

 

The SNP are right to dismiss a deal with the tories because that is the will of the Scottish electorate

How is it the will of the whole Scottish electorate?

 

A significant minority are Tory voters in Scotland. Under a straight PR system they'd have at least 10 seats in Scotland (obviously we don't, but look to Holyrood and see their impact).

 

The SNP can work with who they want (and should do as a nationalist party) for the furtherance of Scottish influence in the union. That's their reason for existence. If they were to be handed FFA any a Tory PM in return for support, why not take it?

[Gorgiewave]

Totally agree but I can't see the Indy issue taking a back seat with their ratings so high.

Shame because if the Indy issue was to be shelved for a few years we could have a progressive coalition in the UK.

 

The pro-UK people, including me, should be hoping to play for time and delay. The SNP hordes are drugged up and that will begin to subside if they don't see constant progress. This happened to a few people who gave up in independence because they suddenly despised their fellow countrymen for being, allegedly, gutless. They'll get maybe 50 MPs on Thursday and they'll think they're making progress. But then they'll realise they can't blackmail the country and more will begin to lose faith. Cold water and time would do the pro-UK parties and supporters in Scotland a favour IMO.

 

Unfortunately, the next Scottish election is only a year away. Ed Miliband needs to get up at 6 am on Friday and say "No party has a majority. The SNP can either vote with Labour or they can abstain or they can vote against Labour. Abstaining leaves the gowd voiceless. Voting against lets in the Tories. Voting for brings a progressive government. Which is it to be?"

 

This would begin the frustration because it's clear that a lot of SNP is a narcissistic desire for power and attention. Yes, attention for Scotland, headlines throughout the world about Scotland, keep the tinsel show flowing, etc. If the monster isn't fed, we'll see more narcissistic rage and the gowd will start to despise them.

[JAYEL]

How is it the will of the whole Scottish electorate?

 

A significant minority are Tory voters in Scotland. Under a straight PR system they'd have at least 10 seats in Scotland (obviously we don't, but look to Holyrood and see their impact).

 

The SNP can work with who they want (and should do as a nationalist party) for the furtherance of Scottish influence in the union. That's their reason for existence. If they were to be handed FFA any a Tory PM in return for support, why not take it?

 

 

Are you saying the SNP should go against the will of the Scottish people for the good of the Party?

 

 

See where that got labour

[Gorgiewave]

How is it the will of the whole Scottish electorate?

 

A significant minority are Tory voters in Scotland. Under a straight PR system they'd have at least 10 seats in Scotland (obviously we don't, but look to Holyrood and see their impact).

 

The SNP can work with who they want (and should do as a nationalist party) for the furtherance of Scottish influence in the union. That's their reason for existence. If they were to be handed FFA any a Tory PM in return for support, why not take it?

 

If the Tories offered them independence tomorrow they'd say no because they're evil Tories and they'll never deal with them.

[JAYEL]

If the Tories offered them independence tomorrow they'd say no because they're evil Tories and they'll never deal with them.

 

 

You do get some things right

[The Mighty Thor]

I suppose they could use it as a tombstone if it goes wrong.

 

Is that his vow? [emoji38]

 

He's got no chance of forming a government. None whatsoever.

[JamboX2]

Are you saying the SNP should go against the will of the Scottish people for the good of the Party?

 

 

See where that got labour

Sorry, explain to me how it's against the will of the Scottish people?

 

Independence was voted against and is not the sovereign will of the Scottish people. Yet the SNP are still aiming to bring that about.

 

If the SNP wanted to be power brokers then they should've been open to working with whoever won most seats or would listen to their demands. If they really wanted FFA they'd not have closed the door to the Tories, who are the most likely party to deliver this at Westminster.

 

Equally if Labour are decimated in Scotland, what right do the SNP have in propping them up at Westminster, after all the sovereign will would be opposed to Labour.

[JamboX2]

If the Tories offered them independence tomorrow they'd say no because they're evil Tories and they'll never deal with them.

Whether they do a deal or not is not my point.

 

My point is simply that if the SNP was to actually hold Labour backwards over the barrel as they claimed they are they'd have left the door open to working with another party likely to form government.

 

They've not. They've sealed that door fast shut and have no real leverage on the back of that. Salmond wouldn't have made such a foolish gamble that early on. He'd have had them in a panic, as it is Labour and the Tories can marginalise Scotland in the campaign as they both know how the SNP will act after May 8th.

[Nookie Bear]

Sorry, explain to me how it's against the will of the Scottish people?

Independence was voted against and is not the sovereign will of the Scottish people. Yet the SNP are still aiming to bring that about.

If the SNP wanted to be power brokers then they should've been open to working with whoever won most seats or would listen to their demands. If they really wanted FFA they'd not have closed the door to the Tories, who are the most likely party to deliver this at Westminster.

Equally if Labour are decimated in Scotland, what right do the SNP have in propping them up at Westminster, after all the sovereign will would be opposed to Labour.

Yep. SNP are not pro-Scotland, they are anti-Tory.

[JAYEL]

Sorry, explain to me how it's against the will of the Scottish people?

 

Independence was voted against and is not the sovereign will of the Scottish people. Yet the SNP are still aiming to bring that about.

 

If the SNP wanted to be power brokers then they should've been open to working with whoever won most seats or would listen to their demands. If they really wanted FFA they'd not have closed the door to the Tories, who are the most likely party to deliver this at Westminster.

 

Equally if Labour are decimated in Scotland, what right do the SNP have in propping them up at Westminster, after all the sovereign will would be opposed to Labour.

 

Really , you dont understand why the SNP would not deal with the Tories

 

 

[jambo1185]

Its interesting that Tories will vote labour to stop the SNP but pro-union Labour voters are refusing to do the reverse.

 

Shame as the Tory East Ren guy is the best candidate by miles and if thd Tories stood strong could really push on but his vote is collapsing in the final few days.

Edited May 3, 2015 by jambo1185

[jambo1185]

Really , you dont understand why the SNP would not deal with the Tories

 

 

They were happy to deal with them a few years ago and sweeten them up to stop their minority government failing.

 

Fact is if the Tories offer SNP FFA and Plaid a reconfigured Barnett formula it would put the nationalists in a very difficult position. Cameron should do it just for bantz.

[JamboX2]

Its interesting that Tories will vote labour to stop the SNP but pro-union Labour voters are refusing to do the reverse.

 

Shame as the Tory East Ren guy is the best candidate by miles and if thd Tories stood strong could really push on but his vote is collapsing in the final few days.

I'd never vote Tory. Equally I won't vote SNP. My votes my own and I'll back the party and or candidate who'll do the best for my country and constituency. To me the Tories don't align with that. Union or not is a not a concrete reason to decide your vote on who will be setting pensions policy, tax and so on.

[JAYEL]

They were happy to deal with them a few years ago and sweeten them up to stop their minority government failing.

 

Fact is if the Tories offer SNP FFA and Plaid a reconfigured Barnett formula it would put the nationalists in a very difficult position. Cameron should do it just for bantz.

 

It would not present them with any difficulty as it would be a no thanks.

 

 

It is only the Red Tories that abandon their principlles and the people that used to vote for them

[JamboX2]

Really , you dont understand why the SNP would not deal with the Tories

 

 

No I do. I'm not thick. They won't because they're a party which is easily demonised in Scotland. Part of the SNP rhetoric is just anti-Tory. See, Vote Yes for no more Tories in Scotland. Mindless stuff at times.

 

My point is that the SNP has shot it's influence before they got into the Commons. By taking an avowedly pro-Labour position Labour doesn't need to actively win their support. They have it in the bag. They will get little concession as a result. Why should Labour bend to their will when they won't go anywhere else to shop?

 

Same goes for Plaid.

 

Take the DUP on the other hand, a soft nationalist party of Ulster (unionists but pro-Ulster above all else). They are open to working for anyone as long as Northern Ireland gets what it needs - money, infrastructure, more powers etc.

 

If the SNP was more concerned with winning concessions for Scotland than grand standing it would copy the DUP approach.

[aussieh]

The pro-UK people, including me, should be hoping to play for time and delay. The SNP hordes are drugged up and that will begin to subside if they don't see constant progress. This happened to a few people who gave up in independence because they suddenly despised their fellow countrymen for being, allegedly, gutless. They'll get maybe 50 MPs on Thursday and they'll think they're making progress. But then they'll realise they can't blackmail the country and more will begin to lose faith. Cold water and time would do the pro-UK parties and supporters in Scotland a favour IMO.

 

Unfortunately, the next Scottish election is only a year away. Ed Miliband needs to get up at 6 am on Friday and say "No party has a majority. The SNP can either vote with Labour or they can abstain or they can vote against Labour. Abstaining leaves the gowd voiceless. Voting against lets in the Tories. Voting for brings a progressive government. Which is it to be?"

 

This would begin the frustration because it's clear that a lot of SNP is a narcissistic desire for power and attention. Yes, attention for Scotland, headlines throughout the world about Scotland, keep the tinsel show flowing, etc. If the monster isn't fed, we'll see more narcissistic rage and the gowd will start to despise them.

Youre so pro uk you left.

If you lived and paid tax here I might listen.

Edited May 3, 2015 by aussieh

[JamboX2]

It would not present them with any difficulty as it would be a no thanks.

 

 

It is only the Red Tories that abandon their principlles and the people that used to vote for them

The Red Tories the SNP will only do a deal with?

 

Ask yourself this, if they're Tories of another colour, then why is Nicola only open to working with them? Must be less Tory than they're peddling...

[JamboX2]

Your so pro uk you left.

Sean Connery is so pro-Scotland he left and won't come back.

 

Not that Gorgiewave is the Sean Connery of JKB...

[aussieh]

The Red Tories the SNP will only do a deal with?

 

Ask yourself this, if they're Tories of another colour, then why is Nicola only open to working with them? Must be less Tory than they're peddling...

No, its the chance to find their labour heart before its irreversible

[JAYEL]

The Red Tories the SNP will only do a deal with?

 

Ask yourself this, if they're Tories of another colour, then why is Nicola only open to working with them? Must be less Tory than they're peddling...

 

As you knpw she has said she will only work with them if they change.

 

 

I have long thought you knew your politics

[The Mighty Thor]

Sean Connery is so pro-Scotland he left and won't come back.

 

Not that Gorgiewave is the Sean Connery of JKB...

He's not even the Jason Connery of Kickback

[Gorgiewave]

Tom Gallagher is an excellent commentator on a lot of this:

 

http://www.thecommentator.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&search=TOm+Gallagher

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

No, its the chance to find their labour heart before its irreversible

 

Most left of centre parties in the developed world have moved rightwards since the 70s and 80s. Hell, in this country it was Hawke and Keating who led economic reforms that transformed Australia from a basket case economically to a major developed economy, risking major unpopularity in doing so.

 

It seems to me that the "left" in Scotland have been left embittered by losing all the battles and arguments so they then changed the rules of the game.

[aussieh]

Sean Connery is so pro-Scotland he left and won't come back.

 

Not that Gorgiewave is the Sean Connery of JKB...

Tam Connery.

[Gorgiewave]

Sean Connery is so pro-Scotland he left and won't come back.

 

Not that Gorgiewave is the Sean Connery of JKB...

 

I did work in St. Cuthbert's Co-op.

 

Being pro-UK is not the same as wanting to live only in the UK. Conflating nationalism with complacent self-sufficiency is what Franco used to do and it's still a serious problem in Spanish society.

[JamboX2]

As you knpw she has said she will only work with them if they change.

 

 

I have long thought you knew your politics

No she's not. She's said she will back Labour if there is an "anti-Tory" majority. Which if there is Cameron can't govern and it falls to Ed.

 

Her manifesto is very similar to Labour. There is little different on UK wide issues of the economy and tax. If Labour need to change then surely so do the SNP if the similarities are there to be seen.

 

There's no precondition other than if the numbers make a Labour minority more viable than a Tory one.

[Gorgiewave]

 

Most left of centre parties in the developed world have moved rightwards since the 70s and 80s. Hell, in this country it was Hawke and Keating who led economic reforms that transformed Australia from a basket case economically to a major developed economy, risking major unpopularity in doing so.

 

It seems to me that the "left" in Scotland have been left embittered by losing all the battles and arguments so they then changed the rules of the game.

 

What I can't understand is why people yearn for industrial Britain. Silicosis going down mines? Breaking your back making ships? What's the appeal? Is it that it was just comprehensible and working in a call centre isn't comprehensible or meaningful?

 

Scotland is, to a great extent, stuck in the past and yearning for a simpler past. Bolivarian is the right description: blame outsiders for everything, feel terribly offended by everything, create client relationships by making everybody wealthy, disappear up your own arse. That's Venezuela.

[Gorgiewave]

See maths, see the commutative law:

 

x + y = y + x

 

That is, x needs y as much as y needs x.

 

Since Labour will have about five times as many MPs as the SNP, Labour will be the leading partner is any relationship or alliance against the Tories. They can say to the SNP at every turn: back us or you're backing the Tories.

[JamboX2]

 

Most left of centre parties in the developed world have moved rightwards since the 70s and 80s. Hell, in this country it was Hawke and Keating who led economic reforms that transformed Australia from a basket case economically to a major developed economy, risking major unpopularity in doing so.

 

It seems to me that the "left" in Scotland have been left embittered by losing all the battles and arguments so they then changed the rules of the game.

It's a myth in Scotland today as well.

 

The SNP are no more to the left of Labour than is being claimed. They share a lot of policy positions and they're not the new dawn on the left as is being claimed. They claim to be the anti-austerity alternative but aren't that either.

 

The Scottish Syriza is not what it's claiming to be. Talk big, but the detail ain't inspiring.

 

If folk in Scotland were serious about a return to the old left of before Thatcher (which was largely not elected in Scotland) they should go vote SSP or Green. There lies the socialist republic. Not with the SNP.

[aussieh]

No she's not. She's said she will back Labour if there is an "anti-Tory" majority. Which if there is Cameron can't govern and it falls to Ed.

 

Her manifesto is very similar to Labour. There is little different on UK wide issues of the economy and tax. If Labour need to change then surely so do the SNP if the similarities are there to be seen.

 

There's no precondition other than if the numbers make a Labour minority more viable than a Tory one.

Seriously, do think we're all daft, Labour voted for and will impliment the next round of cuts.

So anti austerity will require an emergency budget and a new way ahead, so stop saying that their manifesto are the same.

She's ready to support labour, not red tory, only Ed can decide.

Edited May 3, 2015 by aussieh

[JAYEL]

No she's not. She's said she will back Labour if there is an "anti-Tory" majority. Which if there is Cameron can't govern and it falls to Ed.

 

Her manifesto is very similar to Labour. There is little different on UK wide issues of the economy and tax. If Labour need to change then surely so do the SNP if the similarities are there to be seen.

 

There's no precondition other than if the numbers make a Labour minority more viable than a Tory one.

 

 

You forgot the austerrty cuts and many more differencies.

 

 

But again you knew that.

[jambo1185]

It would not present them with any difficulty as it would be a no thanks.

 

 

It is only the Red Tories that abandon their principlles and the people that used to vote for them

I thought the SNPs principle was to get the best deal for Scotland. Theyve said they would vote for FFA in this parliament as they think thats in Scotland's best interests.

 

So you are saying that the SNP should not do what they say is best for Scotland because the offer stemmed from the Tories?

 

So you dont think the SNP will or should do whats best for Scotland on their own basis, and instead will spend their time just doing the opposite of the Tories irrespective of whether that would be bad for us?

 

How mature. Doesn't really amount to standing up for Scotland either.

Edited May 3, 2015 by jambo1185