Scottish independence and devolution superthread

December 6, 2023

4 hours ago, John Findlay said:

So that's a no to my question then.

Good governance I wholly agree with but, alas we are getting neither from both Holyrood or Westminster. What's even more galling, there doesn't appear anyone or any party to step in at either parliament.

I don't know why you asked me tbh.

I've already said I'd prefer to make the devolution settlement work rather than create even more turbulence

January 1

Who remembers Free in 23? I hear it's now Oot the door in 24 😂

PS Happy New Year to all you Brits 🇬🇧

Edited January 1 by TallPaul

January 1

The Wales question answered

January 1

17 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

The Wales question answered

Isn't a principality somewhere ruled over by a Prince or Princess, as opposed to a kingdom?

Surely Wales had the same regent and couldn't have been a principality.

January 1

14 minutes ago, ǝǝɥʇᴉɯS said:

Isn't a principality somewhere ruled over by a Prince or Princess, as opposed to a kingdom?

Surely Wales had the same regent and couldn't have been a principality.

Effectively Wales was part of England

January 1

On 06/12/2023 at 11:57, Ulysses said:

I haven't suggested that England might act the whatever.

I've pointed out that England would act in its own best interests, just as the EU did in the TCA negotiations - and it would be absolutely right for it to do so.

That would mean that Scotland, as the party with less leverage in trade negotiations, might have to either:

(1) Sacrifice some independence of its trade and economic policies in order to secure a favourable trade deal with its most essential trading partner;

(2) Sacrifice some degree of trade, and associated economic activity and tax revenues, in order to secure a higher degree of independence in its trade and economic policies.

It would be a mistake to assume that those difficult choices would not arise. Brexiteers made four big misplaced assumptions. They assumed that the EU's dependence on trade with the UK was greater than it actually was. They assumed that the EU would want to continue treating the UK as an insider after it left. They assumed that they were equal partners with equal leverage in trade negotiations. And because of those three assumptions, they assumed that the UK could leave and that things could carry on just as they had done before.

Given that the recent history is all too clear, Scotland can't make the same misplaced assumptions. If Scotland leaves the UK it will have to negotiate a trade deal, and the prudent assumption Scotland has to make is that such a trade deal will either restrict economic growth and tax revenues or else restrict Scotland's freedom to pursue independent trade and economic policies.

For some people, that's just how it works and they'll be perfectly comfortable taking the risks and making the choices. For others, it's an economic and potentially social disruption that they would consider unwelcome and possibly unnecessary.

:rofl: Less leverage. You have Scotland mixed up with Ireland. Now that would be a bit one sided with all that nothingness you have to offer.

Edited January 1 by ri Alban

January 1

30 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Less leverage. You have Scotland mixed up with Ireland. Now that would be a bit one sided with all that nothingness you have to offer.

Ausseh, you poor lad, it took you three and a half weeks to come up with that, and then you only managed to say something that an O-level pass student wouldn't say, even in your United Kingdom.

You could learn from Ireland if you only cared to look - but of course like most Brits you prefer to assume that the rest of the world has nothing to teach you. I believe it's called the "Little Englander" mentality.

The reality is that if Scotland wants to be independent it will have to negotiate the terms of its trading relationship with its biggest partner. That is an inescapable fact. England would approach those negotiations to suit itself, and no-one else. That might work out in a way that suits Scotland, or it might not. Either way, Scotland would have little leverage in those negotiations, and England would have a lot. That's exactly how it played out in the TCA negotiations between your United Kingdom and our European Union.

100 years ago, Ireland made its choices, and secured its independence. Ireland played a mixed game. There was no "trade deal" on offer, but Ireland was a significant farming supplier to the UK, so Ireland sacrificed some of its freedom of manoeuvre in trade and economic policies to keep a foothold in British markets, but also sacrificed some level of economic activity in order to maintain independence of action in certain industrial areas.

Ultimately it worked out - but it took nearly 60 years for Ireland to even begin to develop as a genuinely independent trading nation. It was almost 60 years after independence before we could strike out on our own and not depend on the British pound as our currency.

If you think - I mean, genuinely think - that Scotland would have real leverage in trade negotiations with one of the largest economic centres on the planet, then by all means explain how you think that would work. But explain. Don't just make immature remarks about a country you'd be hard pushed to find on a map. And don't forget, Aussie, that I have something you don't have, and may never have. I'll see your British passport and raise you - wait a minute, I don't have to raise you anything. :laugh:

January 1

Wales is a wank country m8, literally the most pointless place on earth

January 1

2 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Wales is a wank country m8, literally the most pointless place on earth

"They swim in the sea

We eat them for tea...." 🎵

January 1

6 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Ausseh, you poor lad, it took you three and a half weeks to come up with that, and then you only managed to say something that an O-level pass student wouldn't say, even in your United Kingdom.

You could learn from Ireland if you only cared to look - but of course like most Brits you prefer to assume that the rest of the world has nothing to teach you. I believe it's called the "Little Englander" mentality.

The reality is that if Scotland wants to be independent it will have to negotiate the terms of its trading relationship with its biggest partner. That is an inescapable fact. England would approach those negotiations to suit itself, and no-one else. That might work out in a way that suits Scotland, or it might not. Either way, Scotland would have little leverage in those negotiations, and England would have a lot. That's exactly how it played out in the TCA negotiations between your United Kingdom and our European Union.

100 years ago, Ireland made its choices, and secured its independence. Ireland played a mixed game. There was no "trade deal" on offer, but Ireland was a significant farming supplier to the UK, so Ireland sacrificed some of its freedom of manoeuvre in trade and economic policies to keep a foothold in British markets, but also sacrificed some level of economic activity in order to maintain independence of action in certain industrial areas.

Ultimately it worked out - but it took nearly 60 years for Ireland to even begin to develop as a genuinely independent trading nation. It was almost 60 years after independence before we could strike out on our own and not depend on the British pound as our currency.

If you think - I mean, genuinely think - that Scotland would have real leverage in trade negotiations with one of the largest economic centres on the planet, then by all means explain how you think that would work. But explain. Don't just make immature remarks about a country you'd be hard pushed to find on a map. And don't forget, Aussie, that I have something you don't have, and may never have. I'll see your British passport and raise you - wait a minute, I don't have to raise you anything.

I just hope any arguments for, don't include selling water to England!

Edited January 1 by Dawnrazor

January 1

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

I just hope any arguments for don't include selling water to England!

We buy water from England now. Through German supermarkets. What a wonderful world. :laugh:

January 1

2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

We buy water from England now. Through German supermarkets. What a wonderful world.

😂 buy water but porn is free, who'd have thunked it!

January 1

46 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

😂 buy water but porn is free, who'd have thunked it!

Wait? You get free porn? :eek:

January 1

9 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Wait? You get free porn?

Well, I get a free copy of all my films😏

January 1

22 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Well, I get a free copy of all my films😏

:laugh:

January 2

13 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Effectively Wales was part of England

A shire, I'd agree with that, or maybe a region. But not a principality.

January 2

Bad news for Labour, The SNP polling has started to climb. (Palestine has cost Labour) Now Looks like they'll need to offer indyref2 to bribe the SNP or the Scottish directly.

January 2

Thread title should be changed to

Scottish Independence and Devolution Superdead

January 2

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Bad news for Labour, The SNP polling has started to climb. (Palestine has cost Labour) Now Looks like they'll need to offer indyref2 to bribe the SNP or the Scottish directly.

:rofl:

January 2

On 06/12/2023 at 11:57, Ulysses said:

I haven't suggested that England might act the whatever.

I've pointed out that England would act in its own best interests, just as the EU did in the TCA negotiations - and it would be absolutely right for it to do so.

That would mean that Scotland, as the party with less leverage in trade negotiations, might have to either:

(1) Sacrifice some independence of its trade and economic policies in order to secure a favourable trade deal with its most essential trading partner;

(2) Sacrifice some degree of trade, and associated economic activity and tax revenues, in order to secure a higher degree of independence in its trade and economic policies.

It would be a mistake to assume that those difficult choices would not arise. Brexiteers made four big misplaced assumptions. They assumed that the EU's dependence on trade with the UK was greater than it actually was. They assumed that the EU would want to continue treating the UK as an insider after it left. They assumed that they were equal partners with equal leverage in trade negotiations. And because of those three assumptions, they assumed that the UK could leave and that things could carry on just as they had done before.

Given that the recent history is all too clear, Scotland can't make the same misplaced assumptions. If Scotland leaves the UK it will have to negotiate a trade deal, and the prudent assumption Scotland has to make is that such a trade deal will either restrict economic growth and tax revenues or else restrict Scotland's freedom to pursue independent trade and economic policies.

For some people, that's just how it works and they'll be perfectly comfortable taking the risks and making the choices. For others, it's an economic and potentially social disruption that they would consider unwelcome and possibly unnecessary.

What a very good post.

9 or possibly 9.5 divorces out of 10 are very messy.

January 2

13 hours ago, Ulysses said:

Ausseh, you poor lad, it took you three and a half weeks to come up with that, and then you only managed to say something that an O-level pass student wouldn't say, even in your United Kingdom.

You could learn from Ireland if you only cared to look - but of course like most Brits you prefer to assume that the rest of the world has nothing to teach you. I believe it's called the "Little Englander" mentality.

The reality is that if Scotland wants to be independent it will have to negotiate the terms of its trading relationship with its biggest partner. That is an inescapable fact. England would approach those negotiations to suit itself, and no-one else. That might work out in a way that suits Scotland, or it might not. Either way, Scotland would have little leverage in those negotiations, and England would have a lot. That's exactly how it played out in the TCA negotiations between your United Kingdom and our European Union.

100 years ago, Ireland made its choices, and secured its independence. Ireland played a mixed game. There was no "trade deal" on offer, but Ireland was a significant farming supplier to the UK, so Ireland sacrificed some of its freedom of manoeuvre in trade and economic policies to keep a foothold in British markets, but also sacrificed some level of economic activity in order to maintain independence of action in certain industrial areas.

Ultimately it worked out - but it took nearly 60 years for Ireland to even begin to develop as a genuinely independent trading nation. It was almost 60 years after independence before we could strike out on our own and not depend on the British pound as our currency.

If you think - I mean, genuinely think - that Scotland would have real leverage in trade negotiations with one of the largest economic centres on the planet, then by all means explain how you think that would work. But explain. Don't just make immature remarks about a country you'd be hard pushed to find on a map. And don't forget, Aussie, that I have something you don't have, and may never have. I'll see your British passport and raise you - wait a minute, I don't have to raise you anything.

Great posting . Clarifies quite clearly how long it would take Scotland to be on an even keel after any Indy . Many politicians have said this but they have been accused of scare mongering

January 2

4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Bad news for Labour, The SNP polling has started to climb. (Palestine has cost Labour) Now Looks like they'll need to offer indyref2 to bribe the SNP or the Scottish directly.

January 2

24 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Which is obviously a good thing, but it's really Holyrood we need them out of. That's where the damage is done. And they're going to be there a while yet.

January 2

8 minutes ago, pablo said:

Which is obviously a good thing, but it's really Holyrood we need them out of. That's where the damage is done. And they're going to be there a while yet.

Both would be good !

January 2

1 hour ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

Great posting . Clarifies quite clearly how long it would take Scotland to be on an even keel after any Indy . Many politicians have said this but they have been accused of scare mongering

Did you actually read the post?

January 2

44 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Did you actually read the post?

yes

but it took nearly 60 years for Ireland to even begin to develop as a genuinely independent trading nation. It was almost 60 years after independence before we could strike out on our own and not depend on the British pound as our currency.

January 2

4 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

yes

but it took nearly 60 years for Ireland to even begin to develop as a genuinely independent trading nation. It was almost 60 years after independence before we could strike out on our own and not depend on the British pound as our currency.

And?

January 2

Just now, Ulysses said:

And?

The voter in Scotland has to think about it being worth it ? If it will take that long to have any semblance of economic stability. I dont think it is. Hence I would always be voting no.

January 2

19 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

The voter in Scotland has to think about it being worth it ? If it will take that long to have any semblance of economic stability. I dont think it is. Hence I would always be voting no.

Yep, sort of, but I was making a point more about trade negotiations. Ireland didn't have much choice in those days, because things were done differently (trade agreements weren't really a thing). Scotland would have better choices, and it's fine to approach independence on that basis, but one also has to assume that in a trade negotiation England (or the rUK) will suit itself. That doesn't necessarily mean a trade agreement would go badly for Scotland, but it would be economically unsound to presume that it would automatically go well.

Ironically, the UK-EU TCA helps the case for Scottish independence. If Scotland becomes independent then it can reasonably expect the terms of the TCA and other UK trade agreements to apply to Scotland. That gives a lot of predictability for businesses.

January 2

5 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Yep, sort of, but I was making a point more about trade negotiations. Ireland didn't have much choice in those days, because things were done differently (trade agreements weren't really a thing). Scotland would have better choices, and it's fine to approach independence on that basis, but one also has to assume that in a trade negotiation England (or the rUK) will suit itself. That doesn't necessarily mean a trade agreement would go badly for Scotland, but it would be economically unsound to presume that it would automatically go well.

Ironically, the UK-EU TCA helps the case for Scottish independence. If Scotland becomes independent then it can reasonably expect the terms of the TCA and other UK trade agreements to apply to Scotland. That gives a lot of predictability for businesses.

I knew you would have to explain. Not like unionists to move with the times or live in the past!

January 2

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

but one also has to assume that in a trade negotiation England (or the rUK) will suit itself.

Yep

January 2

20 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

I knew you would have to explain. Not like unionists to move with the times or live in the past!

In fairness, this stuff can get a bit messy sometimes.

London made an error by assuming the EU would treat the UK the same outside the EU as it did when it was inside. What I'm really saying (and thanks so much to ausseh for teeing up the opportunity) is that as Scottish independence supporters make their case for what things would be like after independence, they'll hopefully avoid the same naive mistakes that the UK made with the EU.

January 2

https://x.com/ScotNatWatch/status/1742156697697710439?t=e4jqieUKWs3EdGLEYYANRg&s=08

:greggy:

January 2

9 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

https://x.com/ScotNatWatch/status/1742156697697710439?t=e4jqieUKWs3EdGLEYYANRg&s=08

I watched that the other night :biggrin2:

It was the only funny sketch in the whole show

January 2

2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

In fairness, this stuff can get a bit messy sometimes.

London made an error by assuming the EU would treat the UK the same outside the EU as it did when it was inside. What I'm really saying (and thanks so much to ausseh for teeing up the opportunity) is that as Scottish independence supporters make their case for what things would be like after independence, they'll hopefully avoid the same naive mistakes that the UK made with the EU.

Westminster are like children when real politics is required. Can't be trusted with anything other than helping lobbyists, propagandists, press friends, party donors etc....

January 2

43 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

https://x.com/ScotNatWatch/status/1742156697697710439?t=e4jqieUKWs3EdGLEYYANRg&s=08

January 2

45 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

https://x.com/ScotNatWatch/status/1742156697697710439?t=e4jqieUKWs3EdGLEYYANRg&s=08

🤣

January 2

I'm sure for balance the Tories thread will disappear too

January 2

49 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

I'm sure for balance the Tories thread will disappear too

Aw, you poor thing.

Oh sod it, it's not as if someone showed you a photo of Taylor Swift. Cheer up. ::troll::

January 3

10 hours ago, Ulysses said:

Yep, sort of, but I was making a point more about trade negotiations. Ireland didn't have much choice in those days, because things were done differently (trade agreements weren't really a thing). Scotland would have better choices, and it's fine to approach independence on that basis, but one also has to assume that in a trade negotiation England (or the rUK) will suit itself. That doesn't necessarily mean a trade agreement would go badly for Scotland, but it would be economically unsound to presume that it would automatically go well.

Ironically, the UK-EU TCA helps the case for Scottish independence. If Scotland becomes independent then it can reasonably expect the terms of the TCA and other UK trade agreements to apply to Scotland. That gives a lot of predictability for businesses.

Been said umpteen times across multiple threads but a lot of folk seem to approach it with the notion that England will enter a drought/fuel crisis/economic armaggedon if we vote for independence and as such we hold all the cards.

As you said, it's a very "Little Englander" approach to trade negotiations if indy were to take place.

An acceptance of this from the indy campaign would go a long way to me having some degree of trust in them. However it all seems very Brexity in that respect.

January 3

1 hour ago, BlueRiver said:

Been said umpteen times across multiple threads but a lot of folk seem to approach it with the notion that England will enter a drought/fuel crisis/economic armaggedon if we vote for independence and as such we hold all the cards.

As you said, it's a very "Little Englander" approach to trade negotiations if indy were to take place.

An acceptance of this from the indy campaign would go a long way to me having some degree of trust in them. However it all seems very Brexity in that respect.

I'm assuming that if there were actual trade negotiations, the Scots (and indeed the rest of the UK) would send in professional negotiators and not a bunch of serial ranters from football message boards. :laugh:

But of course that might not actually help. The British had genuinely excellent negotiators in their talks with the EU. But they were hamstrung by two problems. One was the unreasonable and inconsistent negotiating lines and directions given to them by their political masters. The other was that while British civil servants and diplomats were expert negotiators, they weren't expert technical trade negotiators. Why? Because all the best British talent at trade negotiations had been hoovered up by the EU in the previous 20 years, because that's were all the action was. :eek:

On a separate note (I might as well continue to bore you and anyone else who's still reading)...

...one of the big economic sacrifices Ireland made from independence to 1979 related to currency. In effect, Ireland didn't genuinely have the political and administrative confidence to strike it out alone with a currency backed by a very small economy. So we pegged our currency in a 1-to-1 relationship with GBP for all that time. It was necessary for fiscal and banking stability, but it meant we had very little if any independence regarding stuff like interest rates and treasury policy. It was only with the appearance of the two-band European Exchange Rate Mechanism that Ireland could make the jump away from Sterling, and that was one of the key building blocks that allowed Ireland to develop a successful industrial investment policy. It also meant that for decades Ireland had to maintain very large Sterling reserves so that the Central Bank here could support the Irish currency and keep it artificially pegged to GBP.

If Scots are gonna be persuaded to vote for independence, they will (IMO) need to know the score when it comes to currency.

January 3

6 hours ago, manaliveits105 said:

I'm sure for balance the Tories thread will disappear too

Balance? 👆🤣

January 3

5 hours ago, Ulysses said:

I'm assuming that if there were actual trade negotiations, the Scots (and indeed the rest of the UK) would send in professional negotiators and not a bunch of serial ranters from football message boards.

But of course that might not actually help. The British had genuinely excellent negotiators in their talks with the EU. But they were hamstrung by two problems. One was the unreasonable and inconsistent negotiating lines and directions given to them by their political masters. The other was that while British civil servants and diplomats were expert negotiators, they weren't expert technical trade negotiators. Why? Because all the best British talent at trade negotiations had been hoovered up by the EU in the previous 20 years, because that's were all the action was.

On a separate note (I might as well continue to bore you and anyone else who's still reading)...

...one of the big economic sacrifices Ireland made from independence to 1979 related to currency. In effect, Ireland didn't genuinely have the political and administrative confidence to strike it out alone with a currency backed by a very small economy. So we pegged our currency in a 1-to-1 relationship with GBP for all that time. It was necessary for fiscal and banking stability, but it meant we had very little if any independence regarding stuff like interest rates and treasury policy. It was only with the appearance of the two-band European Exchange Rate Mechanism that Ireland could make the jump away from Sterling, and that was one of the key building blocks that allowed Ireland to develop a successful industrial investment policy. It also meant that for decades Ireland had to maintain very large Sterling reserves so that the Central Bank here could support the Irish currency and keep it artificially pegged to GBP.

If Scots are gonna be persuaded to vote for independence, they will (IMO) need to know the score when it comes to currency.

Of course 😂 I wasn't referring to the indy campaign on here (!) but the wider independence movement itself often seems short on the idea that there will be a bit of bartering. I would also have some concerns about any Scottish negotiating team going into them for the reasons you give. I can't speak for the talent (although my assumption would be a very similar position to UK - EU would play out) but I do worry about the political oversight.

I think for example the anti-nuclear position is promising something that could very quickly be traded for concessions in some arena from England but is often given as a reason for independence.

It's the nature of politics of course but I feel there's often too much promised and for me there's just too many unknowns. Too often the answers seem to amount to "trust me it'll be fine" as well.

You're also right on currency. The idea that we retain the GBP post-indy has always bothered me for exactly the reasons you state. Although I don't have a better idea either, but then again that's not my problem to resolve.

Not a bore at all Uly, I think it's quite refreshing seeing an unbiased opinion from someone looking in and I appreciate your insights 👍 also it's quite early so I'm probably rambling all over the shop 😂

January 11

Dive in lads!

Missing Stone of Destiny chip found in SNP cupboard

January 11

1 hour ago, periodictabledancer said:

Dive in lads!

Missing Stone of Destiny chip found in SNP cupboard

Thought they kept the chips on their shoulders?

January 11

Just now, Japan Jambo said:

Thought they kept the chips on their shoulders?

We're off to a good start 😄

January 11

3 hours ago, periodictabledancer said:

Dive in lads!

Missing Stone of Destiny chip found in SNP cupboard

Thought that was gifted to Salmond back in the day when he was running the SNP? He left it in the office cupboard has he? That's a hanging offence no? 🙄

January 11

1 hour ago, Japan Jambo said:

Thought they kept the chips on their shoulders?

👏

January 11

Wee Tory colonialist getting his arse handed to him by Angus Robertson. :lol:

January 11

Whit aboot ra Toariesssssssssss

Scottish independence and devolution superthread

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