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Scottish independence and devolution superthread


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Exactly this!   I was thinking about the naysayers and then thought about WHY a movement would want to lead a nation into independence which would ultimately lead to financial ruin, expulsion from c

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ToadKiller Dog

 

 

Presumably that's from a Yes Twitter source. If Dundee votes 71-29 Yes then Yes will win by 2-to-1 nationwide. Do you really think that will happen?

 

Dundee could be an exception it is a big SNP area but not that big

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Not according to Paddy Power the other night. There's not enough money taken in to make a difference on politics and the odds are pretty much made up with intel.

 

I missed that. Got a link?

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Hibs cup final chat. You can sing as loud as you want. You lose, you lose. Deal with it.

Where is the LIKE button!

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I take it there were no polls for specific regions, otherwise these figures don't mean very much. :)

 

Yes the polls do split be region, but the accuracy reduces the more you split. Glasgow is yes in polls, as is Dundee. Borders very strong No, Aberdeen No.

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It doesn't matter if she is correct or not - the point was she immediately alienated a large number of potential support for Yes, and at the same time started dividing the nation. That divisiveness got worse when "Team Scotland" appeared, implying if you didn't vote Yes you were not Scottish. Again that divisive campaigning I think may prove costly to them. Well I hope so anyway - long way to go.

So she was right

 

Hardly going to split the vote of those who would be upset at that remark.....'the toffs' were pretty much No in any case and remember you address your remarks to get votes from the majority not to suck up to 'the toffs'......not that I'm suggesting you are one of course :bucktooth:

Edited by CJGJ
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Yes the polls do split be region, but the accuracy reduces the more you split. Glasgow is yes in polls, as is Dundee. Borders very strong No, Aberdeen No.

 

Glasgow was all over the place in polls...but more often No than Yes.

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Geoff Kilpatrick

 

 

 

Hibs cup final chat. You can sing as loud as you want. You lose, you lose. Deal with it.

That's being saved for Facebook later ;)

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I missed that. Got a link?

 

The page has been taken down but I noticed earlier that oddschecker had a pie chart that showed most bets were placed on a yes outcome. Not sure if that was quantity of bets or monetary amount.

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So she was right

 

Hardly going to split the vote of those who would be upset at that remark.....the toffs were pretty much No in any case and remember you address your remarks to get votes from the majority not to suck up to 'the toffs'......not that I'm suggesting you are one of course :bucktooth:

 

 

 

you may be right that she wouldn't get much votes from the Toffs anyway, but the "Team Scotland" campaign defo was stupid, imo. That alienated further potential voters, as well as divided the country further. I really resent any implication that as a No voter I am somehow not Scottish.

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Yet you have a problem with Scottish MPs voting on English matters? :unsure:

 

Yes. What's the problem with that? And how is it incompatible with a wish for a federal uk? We have different parliaments, which is good (I am Scottish and British). When a decision is being taken in Westminster which doesn't effect Scotland, why should Scottish MPs have a say and potentially swing that result. English MPs don't vote on devolved matters in Holyrood of course.

Edited by jambo1185
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Dundee could be an exception it is a big SNP area but not that big

 

Dundee voted 47% SNP at the 2011 election, 3% higher than the national average, but not all that out of line.

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The page has been taken down but I noticed earlier that oddschecker had a pie chart that showed most bets were placed on a yes outcome. Not sure if that was quantity of bets or monetary amount.

I saw that too.. strange it appears to have been taken down but the majority of bets were on Yes.........mind you that might just have been for the price

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Glasgow was all over the place in polls...but more often No than Yes.

 

Not in the ones I read but granted I didn't go through all of them. Maybe Ruth Davidson should go and have a nice cup of tea for a while

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I missed that. Got a link?

 

Sorry, I don't. But he was on Scotland Tonight after the news. It's basically betting in play. If someone goes 1-0 up the odds shorten. 2-0, further still, regardless of the money being placed.

 

Obviously bookies "hedge their bets" but it's much more scientific these days.

 

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I saw that too.. strange it appears to have been taken down but the majority of bets were on Yes.........mind you that might just have been for the price

 

Pity that has been taken down as it was interesting to watch the movement...assume the books are now being closed?

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you may be right that she wouldn't get much votes from the Toffs anyway, but the "Team Scotland" campaign defo was stupid, imo. That alienated further potential voters, as well as divided the country further. I really resent any implication that as a No voter I am somehow not Scottish.

And quite right too.....we are all children of our country and entitled to vote however we want.

 

(Imagine we banned upper public schooled persons for a few years from being in Parliament and the upper reaches of the civil service......what would happen ?......sometimes I feel it is seen by many upper class Tories and others as a nice job to be seen to do rather than wanting to do.)

Edited by CJGJ
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It's basically betting in play. If someone goes 1-0 up the odds shorten.

 

But doesn't that happen because of the fact that there is betting in play, so money tends to pile in from punters on the team that has just gone 1-0 ahead?

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Pity that has been taken down as it was interesting to watch the movement...assume the books are now being closed?

 

Betfair exchange still open. You will get about 10/1 on Yes last time I looked. Still a lot of money being traded.

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So it's looking like a no vote.

 

It will all come around again in 20 years max. If England haven't kicked us out first.

 

Wonder if our share of the UK debt will be higher, lower or much the same by then?

 

Knowing us, we will probably vote YES in 2034 with a huge UK debt share and it would have been better to have gone now.

 

:)

Edited by DETTY29
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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/referendum/5924052/david-cameron-devolution-plans.html

 

Big Davy C to announce dramatic changes to how Britain is governed...

 

A move to federalism?

For simple men like myself, can you explain what it means in laymans terms? Most of the jargon during the referendum has meant nothing to me!

 

I mean by federalism.

Edited by donaldmclachlan
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So it's looking like a no vote.

 

It will all come around again in 20 years max. If England haven't kicked us out first.

 

Wonder if our share of the UK debt will be higher, lower or much the same by then?

 

Knowing us, we will probably vote YES in 2034 with a huge UK debt share and it would have been better to have gone now.

 

:)

Many of us may have been long gone by then :bucktooth:

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So it's looking like a no vote.

 

I still say it's too early to tell. We need a couple of declarations.

 

Here's a table showing the vote percentages at the 2011 election (regional vote) by council area. Some estimates for constituencies that break across more than one council ares, so if anyone has better figures please say so.

 

2011 scottish election percentages by council area.pdf

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But doesn't that happen because of the fact that there is betting in play, so money tends to pile in from punters on the team that has just gone 1-0 ahead?

 

I think it's more on the probability of the result and to entice money to be placed on the contrary.

 

NB. I'm no bookie and certainly not claiming to be an expert on the subject. Paddy seemed to know a bit about it though.

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The one thing I found quite surprising near the end of this campaign was the amount of people, on both sides who were dead set in what they were voting changing their minds late on. Best friend that I'm on holiday with was always a no but voted yes, another frI end who gave many reasons for voting yes and he voted no. Many others swithered at the last minute. It's certainly been very interesting!

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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/referendum/5924052/david-cameron-devolution-plans.html

 

Big Davy C to announce dramatic changes to how Britain is governed...

 

A move to federalism?

 

I hope so.

 

The danger is that the age of the nation state is in decline as economic states/alliances/federal entities grow. Scotland could be independent and arrive at the party just as everyone else is leaving.

 

Truth be told Salmond, knows this and that is why the "independence" he seeks would retain a significant umbilical cord with UK (or the EU). It really is "Indy Light" and not dissimilar to a federal UK.

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But doesn't that happen because of the fact that there is betting in play, so money tends to pile in from punters on the team that has just gone 1-0 ahead?

 

Betting (on bet365) gets suspended as soon as a goal is scored, in fact because they operate a delay on their site it is suspended usually before you see the goal so can't be that.

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