Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Boris]

Yes I know - but if No won and went out in the streets and celebrated by dancing about in front of cameras I would expect the Yes supporters would also be upset. One persons "celebrations" are another persons "smugness". It works both way Boris - you can't judge which is which. People dancing in the streets when Thatcher died who weren't even born when she was PM just exposed the rela bigotry.

 

Anyway, I will take the opportunity to have a go at Salmond for distressing my family. Folks on this thread I have no problem with and I have learned a lot from it by debating.

 

A bit different celebrating a referendum win and the death of a much disliked former PM. I too found those scenes rather contrived and undignified.

 

Go for Salmond all you want! I, like many, aren't voting for the man or the party.

 

I'd also echo your comments re the debate on here. By and large good stuff!

[rossthejambo]

A "rebellion" of some backbench Tories and even the Welsh and Northern Irish MPs wouldn't be enough to block this as most Tories will do as their told and with Labour and Lib Dem also committed, you big scaremongerer.

 

Will all depend on who wins the next election though. There's no way this devolution of extra powers will be in place before the next general election, if there's a new Tory PM or if a party gets a majority then who knows what will happen.

 

I don't doubt we'll get some more devolved powers btw, but it's the level of these powers that will matter in result of a No vote.

[Gorgiewave]

Is either side planning an official celebration?

[deesidejambo]

A bit different celebrating a referendum win and the death of a much disliked former PM. I too found those scenes rather contrived and undignified.

 

Go for Salmond all you want! I, like many, aren't voting for the man or the party.

 

I'd also echo your comments re the debate on here. By and large good stuff!

 

Thanks - just give me a couple of GIRFUY posts and I'll calm down.

 

Its not over yet though - Still awaiting the Sun Headline for tomorrow. The Digger is still lurking.

 

But definately something wierd with the Betting Exchange. Money must be piling in somewhere. If its correct that postal votes are opened and checked for completeness once they are recieved then that would explain it. Can anyone confirm if they are indeed opened before Thursday?

[ToadKiller Dog]

A "rebellion" of some backbench Tories and even the Welsh and Northern Irish MPs wouldn't be enough to block this as most Tories will do as their told and Labour and Lib Dem are also committed, you big scaremongerer.

 

No but it could be delayed in passage through committee stage and House of Lords and after the next General election who knows .

[deesidejambo]

Is either side planning an official celebration?

 

I sincerley hope not. In my view there is absolutely nothing to celebrate from either side.

[doctor jambo]

If NO wins I wont be celebrating at all.

I would not see it as a victory

Most if not all my friends likewise

We would merely return to what we were doing before, then if asked pretend we had voted yes

[jambo1185]

Will all depend on who wins the next election though. There's no way this devolution of extra powers will be in place before the next general election, if there's a new Tory PM or if a party gets a majority then who knows what will happen.

 

I don't doubt we'll get some more devolved powers btw, but it's the level of these powers that will matter in result of a No vote.

I think everyone is pretty sure Labour will be the biggest party, whether they will get the majority or can pair up with the Lib Dems, time will tell. Even if the Tories hold on to power the proposals will go through, although it may form part of wider constitutional change (West Lothian question and all that, which doesn't seem unfair to me).

Edited September 16, 2014 by jambo1185

[EIEIO]

Is either side planning an official celebration?

Tories in Dumfries have some sort of champagne celebration planned can't find the link. Hibs fans relegation party at Tynecastle springs to mind.

[deesidejambo]

Tories in Dumfries have some sort of champagne celebration planned can't find the link. Hibs fans relegation party at Tynecastle springs to mind.

 

I just can not stop laughing when I remember that.

[Rudolf's Mate]

Tory MP's threatening to scupper Devo Max already.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098825/David-Cameron-faces-Tory-bloodbath-over-unfair-cash-for-Scotland.html

 

That didn't take long.

 

It was being reported down here yesterday. A number of Westminster MP's are furious that the leaders have attempted to push through quick promises to guarantee no.

 

I fully expect no to pull clear however it'll be interesting to see the backlash from the parties own MP's once the dust has settled.

[TheMaganator]

 

But definately something wierd with the Betting Exchange. Money must be piling in somewhere. If its correct that postal votes are opened and checked for completeness once they are recieved then that would explain it. Can anyone confirm if they are indeed opened before Thursday?

 

I read on facebook yesterday (so take this with a massive pinch of salt - more so than any usual facebook post) that some had been opened and were 70/30 for No.

 

It could, and most likely is, utter pish (both that they had been opened and were at those ratios), but that is the only thing I have heard on the subject.

[LeftBack]

Thanks - just give me a couple of GIRFUY posts and I'll calm down.

 

Its not over yet though - Still awaiting the Sun Headline for tomorrow. The Digger is still lurking.

 

But definately something wierd with the Betting Exchange. Money must be piling in somewhere.

 

Has their been an indication Sun is going to say 'NO' tomorrow and that explains the betting changes

[Sexton Hardcastle]

Apex Hotel in the grassmarket being transformed into a news studios on the higher levels/balconies.

 

Looks like hq for many stations come Thursday.

[jambo1185]

Has their been an indication Sun is going to say 'NO' tomorrow and that explains the betting changes

No signals as yet, I'm still expecting them to come out on the side of Yes though. The Yes campaign got a bit of negative comment in today's Sun because Salmond refused to get in the back of the Sun's cab and answer questions from the 'ordinary cabbie bloke', and 'aides' made some comment about the cabbie/the Sun being biased, which they weren't chuffed about (Darling was quite happy to get in the other day).

[deesidejambo]

Has their been an indication Sun is going to say 'NO' tomorrow and that explains the betting changes

 

Thats a thought. I think the Digger is waiting to fire his last salvo tomorrow so I'd say no to that one.

 

I'm looking to see what happens to the postal votes from now till Thursday. Can't see on the web what the procedure is.

 

But my best bet is that the pollsters, who are all polling now, may already have seen a shift. It takes them a few seconds to phone their partners and tell them to put money on in an Exchange.

 

I am speculating so no flames please - but something material has happened today. Bookies don't close books at 4/1 just like that

[jambo1185]

Mag's favourite blogger Alex Massie with another good piece of writing today http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/is-scotland-confident-enough-to-vote-no/

[ToadKiller Dog]

 

 

I read on facebook yesterday (so take this with a massive pinch of salt - more so than any usual facebook post) that some had been opened and were 70/30 for No.

 

It could, and most likely is, utter pish (both that they had been opened and were at those ratios), but that is the only thing I have heard on the subject.

 

That would be a crime and the person responsible would face jail .

Postal votes are protected by a police guard .

They may already have been opened to be verified which us closely watched by agents from both sides yes and no .

Agents can get a rough idea from verification but it's not exact . Don't know if verification would have started on postal votes yet or not .

 

Postal votes are usually mixed with regular votes after verification not counted on their own

Edited September 16, 2014 by ToadKiller Dog

[BoJack Horseman]

"I have a confession to make - I am not enjoying covering the Scottish referendum"

 

http://www.itv.com/n...ish-referendum/

 

I know he touches on it, but if wee knobs dancing about telly cameras and kicking up noise at the oppositions rally is the worst we've seen from the pro-independence contingent then I'd say that was fairly positive.

 

It's difficult to not resort to passion when that's what the whole campaign is essentially founded on.

[deesidejambo]

Thats a thought. I think the Digger is waiting to fire his last salvo tomorrow so I'd say no to that one.

 

I'm looking to see what happens to the postal votes from now till Thursday. Can't see on the web what the procedure is.

 

But my best bet is that the pollsters, who are all polling now, may already have seen a shift. It takes them a few seconds to phone their partners and tell them to put money on in an Exchange.

 

I am speculating so no flames please - but something material has happened today. Bookies don't close books at 4/1 just like that

 

Just found out - the postal votes are opened as from yesterday

Edited September 16, 2014 by deesidejambo

[FWJ]

Currently in the staff room at work. *Everyone* is talking about the referendum. (Except me. I'm on JKB)

[Thunderstruck]

It's possible the Scots with fancy houses, flash cars and well paid jobs will be doing the same if its a Yes, as they realise a life of poverty is upon them.

 

Eh, naw. Rightmove Cumbria and Yorkshire will be very popular websites.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Postal votes returned for the highlands at 87.5 % saying more than 34000 plus received 2100 just today late posted .

So high turnout

[TheMaganator]

That would be a crime and the person responsible would face jail .

Postal votes are protected by a police guard .

They may already have been opened to be verified which us closely watched by agents from both sides yes and no .

Agents can get a rough idea from verification but it's not exact . Don't know if verification would have started on postal votes yet or not .

 

Postal votes are usually mixed with regular votes after verification not counted on their own

 

I am not doubting what you say - but what is the crime? The telling people of the outcome of the votes you have opened?

 

It could be (assuming the guy wasn't talking pish) that they had been opened for verification and that's how the ration was arrived at?

 

Or, more likely, he was talking pish.

[Mikey1874]

 

 

Thanks - just give me a couple of GIRFUY posts and I'll calm down.

 

Its not over yet though - Still awaiting the Sun Headline for tomorrow. The Digger is still lurking.

 

But definately something wierd with the Betting Exchange. Money must be piling in somewhere. If its correct that postal votes are opened and checked for completeness once they are recieved then that would explain it. Can anyone confirm if they are indeed opened before Thursday?

 

postal votes are NOT counted whether Yes or No till after polls close 10pm Thursday - that info is from someone involved in counting votes

Edited September 16, 2014 by Mikey1874

[ToadKiller Dog]

 

 

I am not doubting what you say - but what is the crime? The telling people of the outcome of the votes you have opened?

 

It could be (assuming the guy wasn't talking pish) that they had been opened for verification and that's how the ration was arrived at?

 

Or, more likely, he was talking pish.

 

The people doing the verification are sworn to secrecy and can be punished for speaking but would be hard to prove ( I was a a lock down in dundee SP elections in 1999 when it was thought 150 votes had went missing ) , those doing the verification ( watching for fair play from no and yes will have gathered an idea and talked about it so it could be public from them .

 

Are the postal votes send to your local region or one national area so it could be he has seen the verification stats for say the lothians at such a split .

Or he has access to a compiled so far amount from no or yes totals nationwide

Edited September 16, 2014 by ToadKiller Dog

[Nookie Bear]

Is it not known to pollsters/campaigns who the postal voters are and they are just contacting them direct ?

[Mikey1874]

 

 

The people doing the verification are sworn to secrecy and can be punished for speaking but would be hard to prove ( I was a a lock down in dundee SP elections in 1999 when it was thought 150 votes had went missing ) , those doing the verification ( watching for fair play from no and yes will have gathered an idea and talked about it so it could be public from them .

 

Are the postal votes send to your local region or one national area so it could be he has seen the verification stats for say the lothians at such a split .

Or he has access to a compiled so far amount from no or yes totals nationwide

 

just what I was thinking

 

but harder as it is indeed the case that postal votes are checked and counted in each of the 32 local authority areas NOT nationally so to get true picture would need to get 32 lots of inside info

 

unless polling and suveys allow them to know from one area that is representative of all Scotland?

[TheMaganator]

The people doing the verification are sworn to secrecy and can be punished for speaking but would be hard to prove ( I was a a lock down in dundee SP elections in 1999 when it was thought 150 votes had went missing ) , those doing the verification ( watching for fair play from no and yes will have gathered an idea and talked about it so it could be public from them .

 

Are the postal votes send to your local region or one national area so it could be he has seen the verification stats for say the lothians at such a split .

Or he has access to a compiled so far amount from no or yes totals nationwide

I honestly don't know TKD.

 

He is just a member of a pro-Union group on facebook - I don't know him other than through the group.

 

On the verification thing - who ensures that No votes aren't being put in the Yes pile and vice versa? Are hey double checked or anything? I have no idea

[Thunderstruck]

Is it not known to pollsters/campaigns who the postal voters are and they are just contacting them direct ?

 

A list of Postal and Proxy Voters is available to Elected Representatives and Parties.

 

(Check out the Electoral Commission website).

[ToadKiller Dog]

 

I honestly don't know TKD.

 

He is just a member of a pro-Union group on facebook - I don't know him other than through the group.

 

On the verification thing - who ensures that No votes aren't being put in the Yes pile and vice versa? Are hey double checked or anything? I have no idea

 

My experience been a few years but doubt it had changed the counters are watched by agents from yes and no who can if they see an error ask the counter to recheck the pile .

If I mind with the elections ( different in some ways from a referendum ) votes were put in piles of 25 for each party ( dundee other areas may differ ) then from that to Hundreds .

At the verification the watchers can point out wrongly marked ballot papers and they are put to the side where an officer for election will decide on it valid or not .

At the count of votes they can point out errors the feel they see but they have to point it out at the time or it's to late .

 

[Boab]

I pity those poor buggers doing the counts.If it is close,there will be recounts all over the place.They could be there for a while!!

Get ready for Friday being the biggest anti-climax.

[TheMaganator]

My experience been a few years but doubt it had changed the counters are watched by agents from yes and no who can if they see an error ask the counter to recheck the pile .

If I mind with the elections ( different in some ways from a referendum ) votes were put in piles of 25 for each party ( dundee other areas may differ ) then from that to Hundreds .

At the verification the watchers can point out wrongly marked ballot papers and they are put to the side where an officer for election will decide on it valid or not .

At the count of votes they can point out errors the feel they see but they have to point it out at the time or it's to late .

Cool, cheers

[deesidejambo]

Something very weird going on. Betfair closed the book, paid out. Then reopened another one at the same odds. All other bookies are still stable at about 3/1.

 

i.e.no real change. Strange.

[Footballfirst]

The TNS poll just out isn't a voters poll. It's about attitudes of others.

 

Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB 40m

Tonight's TNS poll is about UK attitudes to the Indyref, not a poll on Indyref voting intentions. What a pity.

 

Ian Jones ?@ian_a_jones 2m

A new TNS poll suggests 63% of adults in England & Wales are against Scottish independence - but only 55% care about the #indyref result.

 

Tonight's polls

Scotsman/ICM at 9pm.

Scottish Daily Mail/Survation at 10:30pm.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Footballfirst

[BoJack Horseman]

Something very weird going on. Betfair closed the book, paid out. Then reopened another one at the same odds. All other bookies are still stable at about 3/1.

 

i.e.no real change. Strange.

 

PR stunt.

[Don Dan]

 

Something very weird going on. Betfair closed the book, paid out. Then reopened another one at the same odds. All other bookies are still stable at about 3/1.

 

i.e.no real change. Strange.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402

 

Strange as you say (I know nothing about odds or betting)

 

[TheMaganator]

FFS, the eyes of the world are upon us. Can we stop behaving like beasts from the forrest?!

 

[Don Draper]

I know he touches on it, but if wee knobs dancing about telly cameras and kicking up noise at the oppositions rally is the worst we've seen from the pro-independence contingent then I'd say that was fairly positive.

 

It's difficult to not resort to passion when that's what the whole campaign is essentially founded on.

 

Definitely this.

 

A few Weary Wullies on here need to take a deep breath of some clean Scottish air and stop worrying about this imagined Armageddon-type aftermath. You sound like the Telegraph, to be honest. Most Yes voters I know are simply delighted to be in with a shout - let's remember how far back they were in the polls just a month ago. They're going into it with their eyes wide open. And as Boris said earlier, 99.9 per cent of voters on both sides are just going to get on with their lives, no matter what happens.

[Don Draper]

National Collective's editorial, 'A Yes vote changes everything': http://nationalcollective.com/2014/09/16/editorial-a-yes-vote-changes-everything/

[Stuart Lyon]

Don - more nonsense about scaremongereing and understandably nothing about how the Utopian dream of an independent Scotland will prosper as per the ideals of the SNP.

[Guest Bilel Mohsni]

We are a generation who will be an important part of Scotland and the world's history.

 

People talk about being bored by politics and apathy towards the referendum etc...

 

In years to come, we will be remembered for what we vote for in this monumental referendum.

 

We should all try and appreciate just how privileged we are to have such an important decision in our hands.

 

This is a massive thing, and the date of it will make its way in to history books that will be read by our kids, their kids, their kids, their kids and so on.

 

It's a good time to be alive, and it's an amazing thought to hold so much sway in world affairs.

[Don Draper]

Don - more nonsense about scaremongereing and understandably nothing about how the Utopian dream of an independent Scotland will prosper as per the ideals of the SNP.

 

It's a shame you took that from it. I thought it was a pretty rousing stuff. Ah well, different strokes an' all that.

 

Just one thing...and I think this might be at least the 100th mention of this on here...people are not voting for the SNP. If they were, Yes would not be sitting neck-and-neck with No.

[Gorgiewave]

We are a generation who will be an important part of Scotland and the world's history.

 

People talk about being bored by politics and apathy towards the referendum etc...

 

In years to come, we will be remembered for what we vote for in this monumental referendum.

 

We should all try and appreciate just how privileged we are to have such an important decision in our hands.

 

This is a massive thing, and the date of it will make its way in to history books that will be read by our kids, their kids, their kids, their kids and so on.

 

It's a good time to be alive, and it's an amazing thought to hold so much sway in world affairs.

 

Scotland holds almost zero sway in world affairs and each voter as good as zero.

[graygo]

Scotland holds almost zero sway in world affairs and each voter as good as zero.

 

It also holds almost zero sway in UK affairs and that's why I will be voting Yes

[Hasselhoff]

 

 

It's a shame you took that from it. I thought it was a pretty rousing stuff. Ah well, different strokes an' all that.

 

Just one thing...and I think this might be at least the 100th mention of this on here...people are not voting for the SNP. If they were, Yes would not be sitting neck-and-neck with No.

 

If it is a yes, I will make sure i vote for snp to be in power as I want them to be held accountable for the shambles.

[Guest Bilel Mohsni]

 

 

Scotland holds almost zero sway in world affairs and each voter as good as zero.

 

The UK is very important in world affairs. Europe and the USA have a hell of a lot of interest in the future of the UK. Scotland leaving the UK would have a massive impact on the world, both in the long and short term.

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

I just had an older American guy in my shop renting a bike for his four day stay in Edinburgh.

 

General blethering as you do and I asked him if he was touring round and where else he was going to see.

 

His reply was "No I'm just in Edinburgh for four days and I'm here to see history being made"

 

Pretty amazing when you stop and think about what we're part of whatever side you're on.

[rossthejambo]

Think it's time to bow out of this thread and Facebook, getting bored rigid of the same arguments and ridiculous exaggerations from both sides (this is mainly a Facebook problem).

 

Just a shame I can't skip work til it's over as well

 

[Gorgiewave]

The UK is very important in world affairs. Europe and the USA have a hell of a lot of interest in the future of the UK. Scotland leaving the UK would have a massive impact on the world, both in the long and short term.

 

1. It will be a No so all this is moot.

2. The population of Scotland is too small for it to be anything other than a footnote.