Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[Rudolf's Mate]

 

 

[GrimUpNorth]

Are there any more polls before Thursday?

 

yes, read somewhere that there will be 4 released on Wednesday night. Survation, Opinium, yougov and panelbase I think.

 

Also read Tim Stanley's blog yesterday where he suggests 'No' has the lead in the postal votes.

[jumpship]

yip read that this morning, he seems more peed off at the fact only 20 people made comments on his blog...

He then goes on the Labour party line at the moment by bracketing all yes supporters the same.

Having a moan about being asked to join in with the campaigning ?

 

He makes no attempt to give a reason why he's voting no?

Apart from what's id above.

 

The only real difference between him and the rest of comments backing the union, he does not insult us with the no turning back, big decision nonsense.

[Boris]

Er, no. It probably isn't a bad thing if it takes a plunge anyway.

 

So, if it takes a wee dive due to speculation about Scotland voting YES, then this is bad, but actually if it does take a plunge, it's actually ok?

 

Confused!

[Leipzig 51]

What she's really saying is

 

"If the Yes campaign haven't answered your questions, vote no" which sounds very sensible to me.

 

Or if the no campaign haven't answered your questions, vote Yes.

[BoJack Horseman]

 

Ha.

 

I reckon that's a record number of "Alex Salmonds" in one post as well. I guess it's to be expected, but it's just unbelievable that this has become tit for tat between the 2 Ministers of the opposing countries, rather than about what's best for Scotland as a country.

[jambo1185]

Stop the press. Popjustice have spoken. http://www.popjustice.com/briefing/scottish-independence-what-would-it-mean-for-pop/130767/

[deesidejambo]

yes, read somewhere that there will be 4 released on Wednesday night. Survation, Opinium, yougov and panelbase I think.

 

Also read Tim Stanley's blog yesterday where he suggests 'No' has the lead in the postal votes.

 

How can he make a statement on Postal Votes? I though they are unopened till Thursday?

[Ron Burgundy]

Anybody know how much this whole thing has cost?

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

 

There's a less worksafe one doing the rounds on Twitter...

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

Er, no. It probably isn't a bad thing if it takes a plunge anyway.

 

Then why the hysteria when it dropped the other week when a poll showed Yes ahead ?

[BoJack Horseman]

I thought Nick Clegg would have learned his lesson on signing pledges that will never happen.

 

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

Anybody know how much this whole thing has cost?

 

Figures on the beeb last night were about ?2.8mil to No, 1.8mill to Yes funded from donations

[deesidejambo]

Anybody know how much this whole thing has cost?

 

Financial costs are one thig - but much is funded by sponsors.

 

The emotional costs will be larger. On Friday one large group will feel alienated in its own Country. It doesn't matter which side it is to me, the damage to our Country wasn't worth it.

[BoJack Horseman]

Financial costs are one thig - but much is funded by sponsors.

 

The emotional costs will be larger. On Friday one large group will feel alienated in its own Country. It doesn't matter which side it is to me, the damage to our Country wasn't worth it.

 

Hyperbole much? What are the long term emotional damages of a No vote? We'd just have to accept that half the country isn't ready to take control of our own affairs, and carry on with whatever bone WM is going to chuck us.

[deesidejambo]

Hyperbole much? What are the long term emotional damages of a No vote? We'd just have to accept that half the country isn't ready to take control of our own affairs, and carry on with whatever bone WM is going to chuck us.

 

Of a No vote - not much, as the Yes Campaign will know that one day they will have another crack at it.

 

If its Yes - then its much more impact - those who vote No may be doing it based on a sense of national or cultural belonging to the United Kingdom. That will be taken from them forever. The psychological impact of that may not be trivial.

[Gorgiewave]

 

"If you don't know, vote no"

 

Really?

 

[GrimUpNorth]

How can he make a statement on Postal Votes? I though they are unopened till Thursday?

 

I'm trying to find where I read it but I thought they were opened, checked and then closed again.

 

And for reasons I'm not sure it was always expected that No would have a majority on postal votes. The high number of postal votes sent out was a boost for the No side. Age could be a factor in that ?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

So, if it takes a wee dive due to speculation about Scotland voting YES, then this is bad, but actually if it does take a plunge, it's actually ok?

 

Confused!

It was never bad in the first place, it was just a good headline about speculator panic.

 

Funnily enough, it was oversold!

 

If it is a Yes, the markets will shite themselves again but the only thing to watch for is capital flight, which has probably been mitigated due to re-domiciling in any case.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Then why the hysteria when it dropped the other week when a poll showed Yes ahead ?

See above.

[deesidejambo]

I'm trying to find where I read it but I thought they were opened, checked and then closed again.

 

And for reasons I'm not sure it was always expected that No would have a majority on postal votes. The high number of postal votes sent out was a boost for the No side. Age could be a factor in that ?

 

Not sure about that - a friend just posted his this morning.

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

Debate on here centres purely on the economic benefit or lack of it. Very much an I'm alright Jack attitude about it all. There are parts of Glasgow that have 3rd World stats.

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

I don't understand it, or see why people are content with this

[Nookie Bear]

Debate on here centres purely on the economic benefit or lack of it. Very much an I'm alright Jack attitude about it all. There are parts of Glasgow that have 3rd World stats.

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

I don't understand it, or see why people are content with this

 

Firstly, economics pays the bills, the mortgage and buys the food therefore it is a central consideration. In all honesty, it is a case of 'better the devil you know' - yes, the current political situation is hardly ideal but Independence seems to be too much of a leap into the unknown.

 

Secondly, what do you think an Independent Sctland could do to help those parts of Glasgow thta have a 3rd World status?

[Sterling Archer]

The No leading postal votes isn't a surprise.

 

There was an article on fivethirtyeight last week about it. Will try and find it.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Debate on here centres purely on the economic benefit or lack of it. Very much an I'm alright Jack attitude about it all. There are parts of Glasgow that have 3rd World stats.

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

I don't understand it, or see why people are content with this

Your source for this is what precisely?

[Sterling Archer]

http://fivethirtyeig...nce-referendum/

[deesidejambo]

Debate on here centres purely on the economic benefit or lack of it. Very much an I'm alright Jack attitude about it all. There are parts of Glasgow that have 3rd World stats.

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

I don't understand it, or see why people are content with this

 

Scotland does not contribute 25% to the UK economy. Please post where you got this from.

[BoJack Horseman]

Of a No vote - not much, as the Yes Campaign will know that one day they will have another crack at it.

 

If its Yes - then its much more impact - those who vote No may be doing it based on a sense of national or cultural belonging to the United Kingdom. That will be taken from them forever. The psychological impact of that may not be trivial.

 

You're right in saying it won't go away now. The ball is rolling. Even with a No, the Yes campaign will keep pushing, they won't just go "ah well, worth a shot". So why vote No now? There's always going to be uncertainty, so what would change your mind? It's unrealistic to expect everything you want from something, you just can't appease everyone, we all have different views. What we can agree on is that Scotland should be in the hands of the Scottish.

 

 

 

Debate on here centres purely on the economic benefit or lack of it. Very much an I'm alright Jack attitude about it all. There are parts of Glasgow that have 3rd World stats.

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

I don't understand it, or see why people are content with this

 

1 million Scots below the poverty line, and the rest of the UK couldn't care less. Genuinely don't give a shit about us.

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

Quotes not working on this PC Nookie, money created in Scotland would be spent in Scotland. We are being fed doom and gloom but I would expect entrepreneurs to emerge. Scotland is rich in many things right now, people are rightly concerned about currency but surely 5 million people not getting lost in the 65 million has to be a good thing. If truth be told I should be voting no, economically, but I cant, its not right and its not fair. I firmly believe this country can and should stand alone, no picnic for sure, but it would come out stronger the other side.

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

BBC Panorama. London takes in about 35%, screened around the springtime, that 25% is purely the NE of Scotland. Next biggest earner if I remember correctly was Birmingham

[deesidejambo]

Quotes not working on this PC Nookie, money created in Scotland would be spent in Scotland. We are being fed doom and gloom but I would expect entrepreneurs to emerge. Scotland is rich in many things right now, people are rightly concerned about currency but surely 5 million people not getting lost in the 65 million has to be a good thing. If truth be told I should be voting no, economically, but I cant, its not right and its not fair. I firmly believe this country can and should stand alone, no picnic for sure, but it would come out stronger the other side.

 

Well once we find out we are out the EU and won't be back in without negotiating away our fishing rights, then indeed we will be alone. Cue "that won't happen" response.

[Sterling Archer]

http://fivethirtyeig...but-not-london/

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

BBC Panorama. London takes in about 35%, screened around the springtime, that 25% is purely the NE of Scotland. Next biggest earner if I remember correctly was Birmingham

Not even the SNP make this claim!

 

If Scotland was producing 25% of UK GDP it would be like Saudi Arabia!

[deesidejambo]

BBC Panorama. London takes in about 35%, screened around the springtime, that 25% is purely the NE of Scotland. Next biggest earner if I remember correctly was Birmingham

 

So 25% of the UK economy is NE Scotland alone? Presumably the res of Scotland also contributes so thats quite a claim you are making. Totally wrong though.

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

It was on the BBC, I watched it, but I don't agree with your opinion or campaign so I must be a liar. Seen it with my own 2 eyes and don't need to justify myself. I believe someone from the Yes Campaign suggested something similar yesterday, sorry I don't remember the gents name. Lunchtime over I'll let you get back to it

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

It was on the BBC, I watched it, but I don't agree with your opinion or campaign so I must be a liar. Seen it with my own 2 eyes and don't need to justify myself. I believe someone from the Yes Campaign suggested something similar yesterday, sorry I don't remember the gents name. Lunchtime over I'll let you get back to it

Just think about it for a sec.

 

Scotland has 5m people, just under 10% of the population. You are basically saying that Scotland produces 2.5 times per head the rest of the UK in economic output.

 

I think you misunderstood what you saw.

[jambo1185]

It was on the BBC, I watched it, but I don't agree with your opinion or campaign so I must be a liar. Seen it with my own 2 eyes and don't need to justify myself. I believe someone from the Yes Campaign suggested something similar yesterday, sorry I don't remember the gents name. Lunchtime over I'll let you get back to it

Basically the Yes campaigns mantra isn't it? Anyone who doesn't agree with them is bluffing or lying. Doesn't feel great when its turned around on you (as an aside, I have no idea whether you are correct or not, but the numbers seem unlikely). Actually, could it have been this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27678787 (Aberdeen produces 28% of Scotland's GDP)? Edited September 16, 2014 by jambo1185

[deesidejambo]

It was on the BBC, I watched it, but I don't agree with your opinion or campaign so I must be a liar. Seen it with my own 2 eyes and don't need to justify myself. I believe someone from the Yes Campaign suggested something similar yesterday, sorry I don't remember the gents name. Lunchtime over I'll let you get back to it

 

Nobody called you a liar. But if you stop and think for a second you may yourself be able to evaluate whether the data makes sense. It doesn't. I think yo umaybe misinterpreted it - there is no way NE Scotland alone contributes 25% of UK GDP.

[Gorgiewave]

What has been going on (in many cases):

 

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/jock-encombe-the-psychopathology-of-everyday-nationalism/

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has said:

?Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of

small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as

Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that

Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country.?

The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has said:

?The question is not whether Scotland can survive as a separate state. Of

course it could. The real question is what is best for Scotland's future.?

[jambo1185]

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has said:

?Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of

small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as

Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that

Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country.?

The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has said:

?The question is not whether Scotland can survive as a separate state. Of

course it could. The real question is what is best for Scotland's future.?

Agree 100%. Who is arguing different? It is not a question of could, but of should. Scotland could also be a small, independent, and no so thriving economy, it could be one to start with and then the other, that's part of the debate.

Edited September 16, 2014 by jambo1185

[BoJack Horseman]

What has been going on (in many cases):

 

http://wakeupscotlan...ay-nationalism/

 

If we're going down that route, other side of the coin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battered_person_syndrome

[Mikey1874]

A very decent insight to the Yes campaign from Ewan Morrison...

 

EWAN MORRISON: WHY I JOINED YES AND WHY I CHANGED TO NO -

 

 

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/

 

its a good analysis and in many ways a compliment to Salmond / Sturgeon and Yes to keep the campaign simple and harness the power of hopeful optimism

 

"if you keep the promise of a better society utterly ambiguious it takes on power in the immagination of the listener"

 

as Salmond has said (eg interview with Jon Snow in Ch 4 News yesterday) saying Yes to something is easier.

 

just when you start to have to deliver eg a fairer society it gets a lot harder as SNP government have found in the last 7 years

[deesidejambo]

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has said:

?Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of

small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as

Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that

Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country.?

The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has said:

?The question is not whether Scotland can survive as a separate state. Of

course it could. The real question is what is best for Scotland's future.?

 

So what? Nobody is arguing differently - Scotland could of course survive (two of the countries cited are not in the EU). The question is will it be better-off in or out of the UK? And even if it is "better off" is the price of leaving the security of the United Kingdom one worth paying for it?

[deesidejambo]

If we're going down that route, other side of the coin: http://en.wikipedia....person_syndrome

 

? I dont think there are too many people in Scotland who suffer from this and use this as a reason to leave the UK

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has said:

?Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of

small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as

Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that

Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country.?

The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has said:

?The question is not whether Scotland can survive as a separate state. Of

course it could. The real question is what is best for Scotland's future.?

And?

 

You've been called out on the 25% claim. Just retract it.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

 

The bit I don't really understand is why anyone would wish to be ruled by a country that has a mandate to 60 million others who simply couldn't care less about you and actually believe to the tune of 60 to 40 in a recent poll you should have even less public spending despite bringing in over 25% of the entire economy.

 

That's simply not true.

[deesidejambo]

And?

 

You've been called out on the 25% claim. Just retract it.

 

He won't. He will just move onto something else and hope everyone forgets.

[Yoda]

Quotes not working on this PC Nookie, money created in Scotland would be spent in Scotland. We are being fed doom and gloom but I would expect entrepreneurs to emerge. Scotland is rich in many things right now, people are rightly concerned about currency but surely 5 million people not getting lost in the 65 million has to be a good thing. If truth be told I should be voting no, economically, but I cant, its not right and its not fair. I firmly believe this country can and should stand alone, no picnic for sure, but it would come out stronger the other side.

 

You're right, but will people starting up small businesses (often 1 or 2 persons), replace the thousands of jobs that will be lost in financial services, defence, manufacturing. Interest rates will be higher, so it will cost more to borrow for any new business. Lenders will also place a premium on money lent to Scotland due to the risks in setting up any new country.

 

We'll be lucky to get any inward (foreign) investment after Jim Siller's "power to the people" rant last week.

 

Some people think it will be a few years of discomfort, then things will more forward. It's likely to be a prolonged period of severe pain, with the most vulnerable people in Scotland suffering the most. Look at how austerity has impacted Greece. Poorest suffering the most.