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Scottish independence and devolution superthread


Happy Hearts

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It's just impossible to predict how it will go. The pollsters seem to be converging on 48-52 for No, but given the margin of error that is still a statistical dead heat. But I don't think the pollsters can be an accurate guide to what will happen if the turnout is well above 70% - and I believe that a turnout in excess of 70% favours Yes. I was also struck by the comments made by Martin Boon of ICM about the potential for the pollsters to get it wrong, and by his comments about the possibility that the polls are overstating the Yes vote. I've had a concern that the weighting methodology used by a lot of polling companies - whereby responses are weighted by reference to the 2011 Holyrood result - is adding to the Yes tally, and I've had exchanges of emails with both ICM and Ipsos-MORI about this (ICM do this weighting but Ipsos-MORI don't).

 

But imponderables or not, I'd better get off the fence and make a call.

 

Turnout 72%. Yes 48.5%, No 51.5%. :runaway:

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ToadKiller Dog

Energy firm EDF comes out against yes .

See if you can guess the famous brother of their Head of communications .

 

Give you a clue he is famous for ending Boom and Bust

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By way of a final word from me before the polls close (well, this thread may re-open a little while beforehand to allow more forecasts from members), I want to thank everyone who took part, and I particularly appreciated the dedication and sheer stamina shown by some of the top contributors to the thread - if I ever get the opportunity to buy some of you a pint (in pounds, Scottish pounds or euro) I'll be well pleased.

 

Notwithstanding the number of interventions the moderators had to make (and the management team hugely appreciate what they do), I'd like to think that JKB offered its members the chance to have a high standard of debate - and I would thank a great many of you (both Yes and No supporters) who took that opportunity and made the most of it.

 

Looking back over my own contributions, I am aware that people on both sides of the debate have at different times assumed I was against their side. I wasn't - but I have to be honest and say that if I caused both Yes and No supporters to think I was opposed to them then I'm OK with that. What I do hope is that some of what I posted made sense and was informative and useful to the occasional reader once in a while.

 

I mentioned once that I wouldn't be celebrating if No were to win. In truth, I'm not likely to be celebrating either way. Despite my engagement with this debate - and I'll continue to be engaged with the referendum right up until the daylight hours of Friday morning - it's not my gig to vote in or celebrate one way or another.

 

But it is yours, and I wish you well in the decision you are making - individually and collectively, whether Scottish or British.

 

Over and out for now.

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ToadKiller Dog

My guess

 

Dundee( strongly ) and Glasgow will go yes

Edinburgh No Aberdeen No just

 

Overall 52 Yes 48 No turnout 81%

Yes has a bit more of a spring in its step .

 

Interesting times ahead these islands have changed no matter the result .

Edited by ToadKiller Dog
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Enjoyed reading from afar. Can't vote but glad my country is making news around the world for such a huge level of involvement in the vote.

 

Prediction:

 

51% Yes

49% No

Turnout 86.5%

 

Just don't burn the place down before I can make it back!

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BoJack Horseman

Well, good luck all. It's been fun quoting news articles with you. Hope you get the result you're after.

 

More realistic prediction from me. I can't see it being they close at all, there will be at least 10 points in it either way. As I'm Yes, I'll go in favour of that.

 

57% Yes

43% No

 

I think the turn out will be huge. It's like a cup final. No one wants to be the guy that didn't vote coke Friday.

 

91% turnout.

 

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Have enjoyed the debate on here, not so much in the air war.

 

Lots of self-congratulatory stuff on how 'engaged' people are; searching for experts to confirm their view and then post the drivel on social media. Political immaturity in the debate - where is the depth in debate on the issues? Recycled focus grouped soundbites. "The only people to ever consider oil as a burden", accompanied by that sort of sneering giggle. We get anodyne stuff about how Scotland can or can't 'keep' the pound or the garbage about the NHS. Trammelled debates where free thinking is unwelcome or not even considered. Why should a newly independent Scotland retain the institutions which the UK has signed up to and not consider its own path? How have the SNP been able to style the vote as a vote on their mandate as set out in the White Paper? More public spending is always 'better'. The enormous focus on the public sector in the debate. Use of short term data and political choices to define a constitutional choice.

 

Very few people listening, many talking.

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Geoff Kilpatrick

Have enjoyed the debate on here, not so much in the air war.

 

Lots of self-congratulatory stuff on how 'engaged' people are; searching for experts to confirm their view and then post the drivel on social media. Political immaturity in the debate - where is the depth in debate on the issues? Recycled focus grouped soundbites. "The only people to ever consider oil as a burden", accompanied by that sort of sneering giggle. We get anodyne stuff about how Scotland can or can't 'keep' the pound or the garbage about the NHS. Trammelled debates where free thinking is unwelcome or not even considered. Why should a newly independent Scotland retain the institutions which the UK has signed up to and not consider its own path? How have the SNP been able to style the vote as a vote on their mandate as set out in the White Paper? More public spending is always 'better'. The enormous focus on the public sector in the debate. Use of short term data and political choices to define a constitutional choice.

 

Very few people listening, many talking.

:greatpost:

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YES = 41% NO = 59%

 

for me its like a storm in a teacup.. looking forward to never hearing the word 'referendum' again in my lifetime!

 

Godspeed!

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Turnout 87%

Yes 48.7%

No 50.8%

Penises drawn on ballot papers 0.5%

 

Bullshit, lies and back tracking by politicians - every single last one of them.

 

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Darling on BBC news condemning nationalists for intimidating Milliband. Never seen anything like it in 35 years as MP. Whilst I totally agree this was disappointing, Darling has forgotten the miners strikes and the poll tax demos!

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Yes 52% No 48%

 

I think the 3 year old voters in Dundee will be the difference.... Is that why salmond wanted 16-18 year olds to be able to vote? The checks on them should have been just as stringent as those in the adult register.

 

 

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Yes 52% No 48%

 

I think the 3 year old voters in Dundee will be the difference.... Is that why salmond wanted 16-18 year olds to be able to vote? The checks on them should have been just as stringent as those in the adult register.

 

He thought he would get more votes from the young - but the MORI Poll showed the other way around. The young and Old were both strong Nos, while the big Yes vote was from 25-34 year olds. Could be an own goal if that holds up tomorrow. If it does, there will be an interesting discussion as to how this came about.

 

Still another IPSOS Poll and a YouGov one to come out today though. Odds shifted a lot in Betfair towards No but other Bookies still holding at around 3/1 on Yes.

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I have no idea how this will go, but I think turnout will be above 85%. More last minute problems for Salmond, appears he hasn't spoken to the countries he said he had spoken to about EU membership after all: http://www.telegraph...r-EU-talks.html

 

That is rather obvious that Eck was waffling. EU membership is my biggest issue as I work in the EU every winter. We will be out and Eck can avoid this debate as much as possible, but no way will the Spanish allow iScotland a free pass in, for obvious national reasons. Read the article.

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I have no idea how this will go, but I think turnout will be above 85%. More last minute problems for Salmond, appears he hasn't spoken to the countries he said he had spoken to about EU membership after all: http://www.telegraph...r-EU-talks.html

 

A bit of misinformation in the article though.

 

"All 28 existing member states would have to reach unanimous agreement on the process a separate Scotland would have to follow and the terms on which it would join."

 

This would be true if scotland were to apply via article 49, however there is every likelihood that Scotland would gain entry via article 48 which simply requires a majority. So, as ever there are muddied waters, but I guess it's who you believe. If Eck's been telling porkies, well, he's silly. But a YES vote isn't a vote for Eck.

 

Anyway, my prediction....

 

A slim NO victory. 52/48

 

If YES wins then they will win large 58+

 

Huge turnout too.

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Not honest Eck surely. He can't be trusted.

 

Well he has done a great job pulling the wool over the big issues like EU Membership. Instead he prefers to drivel about "Team Scotland". Rubbish campaign, aimed at the lowest denominator.

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