jambo1185 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Salmond just said that an independent Scotland will "be borrowing at Sterling rates". Thoughts Geoff? He can't guarantee that at all can he, he doesn't dictate borrowing terms? Hi Geoff, would still be interested on your thoughts on this one if you have any? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 ? I dont think there are too many people in Scotland who suffer from this and use this as a reason to leave the UK Other way around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Hi Geoff, would still be interested on your thoughts on this one if you have any? Missed this. He obviously thinks he is getting a currency union. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Missed this. He obviously thinks he is getting a currency union. I thought so. I wasn't sure if that meant that all debt borrowing rates would automatically be the same as rUK or if we could still be subjected to a potentially different rate. Don't know much about these things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I thought so. I wasn't sure if that meant that all debt borrowing rates would automatically be the same as rUK or if we could still be subjected to a potentially different rate. Don't know much about these things. From memory, I think the White Paper claimed that the DMO would still handle all gilt sales in the currency union. I suppose it would depend if Holyrood sovereign debt was distinct from Westminster in this scenario, which won't happen anyway. If so, there would be no guarantee at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiepolio Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? Doubtful, given the SNP have a majority at Holyrood so would vote it down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? It is possible. No chance of passing though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorgiewave Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? I don't know but all other parties together have fewer than 50% of the seats so it likely wouldn't prosper anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? They could try but the SNP have a majority so would just out vote them . Going by polls it would be a mistake also as SNP seem still the most popular at Holyrood . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If there is a no vote on Friday would it be possible for the other Scottish parties to announce a vote of no confidence on the snp government to bring forward the Scottish general election? More likely is that Alex Salmond would resign. But no need for an election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think Eck will step down if they lose. He'll leave Sturgeon to clean up the mess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html Betfair paying out on No bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Are there any more polls before Thursday? I just completed the yougov survey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html Betfair paying out on No bets Not like a bookie to go for a publicity stunt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's pretty obvious that No will win. Can't wait to see the look on Yes voters faces when the results come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Not like a bookie to go for a publicity stunt! They'll be claiming to be official sponsors of the referendum next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's pretty obvious that No will win. Can't wait to see the look on Yes voters faces when the results come in. I honestly think some Nat obsessives will be self-harming if it is a No vote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.telegraph...ce-No-vote.html Betfair paying out on No bets Damn - I've put a load on the Exchange, not the Sportsbook. I will still coin it in on Thursday though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think Eck will step down if they lose. He'll leave Sturgeon to clean up the mess I don't think the pragmatically amongst the SNP will be to disappointed with a close no win , getting more powers to Holyrood is in the long term another step towards the goal . I can't really see any massive change in the way Westminster operates to appease those that will vote Yes longer term . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmiyaHearts Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) I honestly think some Nat obsessives will be self-harming if it is a No vote It's possible the Scots with fancy houses, flash cars and well paid jobs will be doing the same if its a Yes, as they realise a life of poverty is upon them. Edited September 16, 2014 by donaldmclachlan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's possible the Scots with fancy houses, flash cars and well paid jobs will be doing the same if its a Yes, as they realise a life of poverty is upon them. True! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldar Hadzimehmedovic Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's pretty obvious that No will win. Can't wait to see the look on Yes voters faces when the results come in. The GIRUY stuff from No is going to be unbearable, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Not like a bookie to go for a publicity stunt! Its pretty odd, but..............Betfair also run an Exchange so they get their own little "Poll" of bets. The Exchange odds are solely governed by the betters, and Betfair set no odds. Then they use that to set the odds in their Sportsbook - very clever! When the Exchange moves one way or the other they can react and close the Sportsbook. That is what they are doing - they are stopping more bets coming in on No. The Exchange has moved from 3/1 to almost 5/1 today so they are seeing a major shift in betting intention. Therefore close the Sportbook quickly. The question remains - what is causing this shift today? Money must be piling in on No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Dundee United chairman backs a yes http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/dundee/dundee-united-chairman-says-yes-to-independence-1.578268 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kramer Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Have there been any examples in the recent past of countries that have had such a close vote on an independence referendum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Have there been any examples in the recent past of countries that have had such a close vote on an independence referendum? Montenegro possibly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Have there been any examples in the recent past of countries that have had such a close vote on an independence referendum? Quebec was 49/51 - if you count that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The GIRUY stuff from No is going to be unbearable, isn't it? Absolutely not. This thread has been very well run by Mods, including bollocking me on occasion. I have no problem with that and I hope that continues. The Mods deserve a hell of a lot of credit for running this thread. There should however be a seperate GIRFUY thread to allow a bit more colourful blood-letting. I for one will indeed be unbearable if No win. Not against Yes voters, but against Salmond for his smugness and dismissiveness at the start of the campaign, and his ridiculous posturing at Wimbledon and the Open. Also, my missus is English and will be absolutely heartbroken if we split, she can't srop worrying about it. My daughter is travelling up from Birmingham just to vote. My 16-year old son is scared to go to the polling station in case he gets intimidated outside by the folk from the estate along the road who are threatening to stand outside and clock everyone. Call me what you want but for me this is a heart matter and I've seen how its affected my loved ones. For the stress that this whole campaign has caused my family, I will never forgive Alex Salmond. And don't tell me to man up. I am entitled to be more heart than head driven. fth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorgiewave Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Absolutely not. This thread has been very well run by Mods, including bollocking me on occasion. I have no problem with that and I hope that continues. The Mods deserve a hell of a lot of credit for running this thread. There should however be a seperate GIRFUY thread to allow a bit more colourful blood-letting. I for one will indeed be unbearable if No win. Not against Yes voters, but against Salmond for his smugness and dismissiveness at the start of the campaign, and his ridiculous posturing at Wimbledon and the Open. Also, my missus is English and will be absolutely heartbroken if we split, she can't srop worrying about it. My daughter is travelling up from Birmingham just to vote. My 16-year old son is scared to go to the polling station in case he gets intimidated outside by the folk from the estate along the road who are threatening to stand outside and clock everyone. Call me what you want but for me this is a heart matter and I've seen how its affected my loved ones. For the stress that this whole campaign has caused my family, I will never forgive Alex Salmond. And don't tell me to man up. I am entitled to be more heart than head driven. fth A "peaceful and joyous? thread, as Alex Salmond described protests against the BBC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Montenegro possibly? Going back a bit but Malta in 1964 was also 55 for/45 against Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) To be honest if no wins I think the overriding sensation amongst no voters will be relief, then they will probably pretend they voted yes as certain aspects of the yes campaign seek to blame anybody and everybody for costing them the victory they feel they deserved and have been cheated out of. I'm pretty hopeful that any dangerous kind of attitude will be remote (probably limited on a no win to those in the yes campaign who are currently being mental anyway, same for the other way round if a yes win - although I suspect the celebrations on a yes win will be on a far greater scale like one big liberation party), and that at least 90% of the winning and losing sides will simply suck it up and move on. Edited September 16, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
super_vlad Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 **** all reason for Alex Salmond to resign, we were told it was a impossible for us to break the union, the fact that it has gone so close is testament to him and his party. The smugness, especially from the bigots (not anyone on here) will be intolerable on friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 To be honest if no wins I think the overriding sensation amongst no voters will be relief, then they will probably pretend they voted yes as certain aspects of the yes campaign seek to blame anybody and everybody for costing them the victory they feel they deserved and have been cheated out of. I'm pretty hopeful that any dangerous kind of attitude will be remote, and that at least 90% of the winning and losing sides will simply suck it up and move on. Absolutely this. I actually think that it's a win/win for YES. The onus is now on Westminster to deliver...and if they don't then it will be hard for the Unionist parties to have any credibility come the Holyrood elections in 2016. It may also force the issue of Independence via the old Westminster model, i.e. SNP win a majority of Scottish seats = mandate for independence. Not to mention the fallout in rUK in respect of Wales, N Ireland and indeed an English parliament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The GIRUY stuff from No is going to be unbearable, isn't it? TBH there will be a few smuggies. I don't think any Yes voter on here has earned a GIRFUY from me. There will be a few GIRFUYs on facebook and twitter though. I may even drive to Bath to GIRFUY to Wings Over Scotland. Assuming we vote No of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 **** all reason for Alex Salmond to resign, we were told it was a impossible for us to break the union, the fact that it has gone so close is testament to him and his party. The smugness, especially from the bigots (not anyone on here) will be intolerable on friday. Works both ways I'm afraid. If it was a Yes, the dancing in George Square from the winners would also be intolerable to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimUpNorth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Its pretty odd, but..............Betfair also run an Exchange so they get their own little "Poll" of bets. The Exchange odds are solely governed by the betters, and Betfair set no odds. Then they use that to set the odds in their Sportsbook - very clever! When the Exchange moves one way or the other they can react and close the Sportsbook. That is what they are doing - they are stopping more bets coming in on No. The Exchange has moved from 3/1 to almost 5/1 today so they are seeing a major shift in betting intention. Therefore close the Sportbook quickly. The question remains - what is causing this shift today? Money must be piling in on No. there are at least 5 polls being conducted right now, could be people on the inside or telling friends etc ? Pure guess though, as these polls are likely to be neck and neck. Do they think this "vow" and NHS leaked report will swing the last few undecided in favour of No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 "I have a confession to make - I am not enjoying covering the Scottish referendum" http://www.itv.com/news/2014-09-16/i-have-a-confession-to-make-i-am-not-enjoying-covering-the-scottish-referendum/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Well UKIP have released their plans for Scotland . MSPs will be scrapped replaced by MPs from whom will work in both Edinburgh and London . Right wing populism at its worst http://news.stv.tv/politics/241271-ukip-launch-their-manifesto/ Edited September 16, 2014 by ToadKiller Dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Works both ways I'm afraid. If it was a Yes, the dancing in George Square from the winners would also be intolerable to me. Smugness and celebration are two different things. Which ever side wins should of course be delighted with the result and savour the moment, however they must be magnanimous in their victory and to both sides, the interests of Scotland are best served by moving on together for the future, whatever that may bring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 there are at least 5 polls being conducted right now, could be people on the inside or telling friends etc ? Pure guess though, as these polls are likely to be neck and neck. Do they think this "vow" and NHS leaked report will swing the last few undecided in favour of No. No - I think the vow and NHS thing will have limited impact - most people made their minds up a long time ago. I personlly think the "Undecideds" may be slowly appearing. But that said there is something going on - the Betfair Exchange only moves on money flowing in - the odds are set automatically by that. It may be the professional gamblers are moving in now and causing odds movement. Pro gamblers tend to "go big" and the bookies are always alert to them. Still wierd though. There must be money piling in from somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimUpNorth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think the No side will be overly celebratory about it (I've voted No btw). Considering how the polls have moved from 70-30 roughly a year ago to 50-50 now. A bit like being 3-0 up at half time and eventually holding on 3-2 with the last 10 mins being backs to the wall. More relief than anything. And it's a win/win for Salmond, with the discussion on the Union very now out there. It either reforms or it ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Tory MP's threatening to scupper Devo Max already. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098825/David-Cameron-faces-Tory-bloodbath-over-unfair-cash-for-Scotland.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Burgundy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Whatever the result It's gonna get messy on Friday. I can see real problems if the No campaign is successful. I reckon [modedit] Salmond will ask for "best of three". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Smugness and celebration are two different things. Which ever side wins should of course be delighted with the result and savour the moment, however they must be magnanimous in their victory and to both sides, the interests of Scotland are best served by moving on together for the future, whatever that may bring. Yes I know - but if No won and went out in the streets and celebrated by dancing about in front of cameras I would expect the Yes supporters would also be upset. One persons "celebrations" are another persons "smugness". It works both way Boris - you can't judge which is which. People dancing in the streets when Thatcher died who weren't even born when she was PM just exposed the rela bigotry. Anyway, I will take the opportunity to have a go at Salmond for distressing my family. Folks on this thread I have no problem with and I have learned a lot from it by debating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor jambo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 **** all reason for Alex Salmond to resign, we were told it was a impossible for us to break the union, the fact that it has gone so close is testament to him and his party. The smugness, especially from the bigots (not anyone on here) will be intolerable on friday. But he should go- he is devisive, and has run his campaign as such. He has attempted to break something. It is his raison d'etre. If the YES founders, then the white paper and all his policies lack the mandate of the people. So he has to go- or risk damaging his party beyond repair. I previously always voted SNP I wont now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If people are surprised that feelings are high on both sides, then they should read the history of how the Union was formed; they had to impose martial law for goodness sake. Whatever the outcome, people should be civil and courteous on both sides, for if this country is so evenly split on the day, then there really are no winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RosscoC Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Tory MP's threatening to scupper Devo Max already. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098825/David-Cameron-faces-Tory-bloodbath-over-unfair-cash-for-Scotland.html That didn't take long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Tory MP's threatening to scupper Devo Max already. http://www.telegraph...r-Scotland.html A "rebellion" of some backbench Tories and even the Welsh and Northern Irish MPs wouldn't be enough to block this as most Tories will do as their told and Labour and Lib Dem are also committed, you big scaremongerer. Edited September 16, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorgiewave Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Whatever the result It's gonna get messy on Friday. I can see real problems if the No campaign is successful. I reckon [modedit] Salmond will ask for "best of three". Cameron, Clegg or Miliband? Miliband, please. Seriously, though, Gordon Brown v Alex Salmond in the Scottish Parliament would be wondrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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