Scottish independence and devolution superthread

[BoJack Horseman]

The most common reason I've heard for not wanting independence (having said that I've not spoke to many people outside my work about it) is because they don't want to vote for Salmond/Sturgeon.

 

Me too. But then my exposure is mostly from the facebook politicians. I don't tend to talk that much about it in the real world as it's such a pointless debate. You either want Scotland to be an independent country, or you don't.

[Craigieboy]

Hi

 

I'm pretty unpolitical. A bit thick about these things too.

 

I'm in the no camp atm.

 

Can someone explain to me two things:

 

What is the actual 'yes' position on currency? All I hear from the no side is that the yes side have not explained it yet. Is this the case?

 

Also, has it been discussed that historically, countries breaking away from other countries on occasion can lead to war down the road when (in this case, England) decides they want Scotland back. Has this been discussed as a possible concern? Nationalism getting out of hand.

 

Genuine question on both counts.

[Boris]

Hi

 

I'm pretty unpolitical. A bit thick about these things too.

 

I'm in the no camp atm.

 

Can someone explain to me two things:

 

What is the actual 'yes' position on currency? All I hear from the no side is that the yes side have not explained it yet. Is this the case?

 

Also, has it been discussed that historically, countries breaking away from other countries on occasion can lead to war down the road when (in this case, England) decides they want Scotland back. Has this been discussed as a possible concern? Nationalism getting out of hand.

 

Genuine question on both counts.

 

Initial position of Salmond is for a currency union. Debate as to whether this would happen or not however the real answer is we will have to wait and see.

 

England invading Scotland in the future? No. Never going to happen. Things have moved along a bit in Western Europe since medieval times.

[The People's Chimp]

It bothers me that the quite a lot of the vocal No support is actually anti-Salmond and not anti-independence. They don't understand that we're not voting for Salmond as our overlord, but he's not really helping the situation by coming out with shit like that.

 

Then why the assertion that there will be a mandate to implement the white paper?

[hughesie27]

Hi

 

I'm pretty unpolitical. A bit thick about these things too.

 

I'm in the no camp atm.

 

Can someone explain to me two things:

 

What is the actual 'yes' position on currency? All I hear from the no side is that the yes side have not explained it yet. Is this the case?

 

Also, has it been discussed that historically, countries breaking away from other countries on occasion can lead to war down the road when (in this case, England) decides they want Scotland back. Has this been discussed as a possible concern? Nationalism getting out of hand.

 

Genuine question on both counts.

 

Yes want a currency union first and foremost. The UK Gov say no chance but that could well be a bluff. When push comes to shove they may well realise that having our economy as part of theirs is a good thing along with not having to take on our share of the UK debt (?50bn). At a time when cuts are already being felt down south more than they are up here (thanks to our existing powers) I doubt the rUK electorate will be keen to take on more.

 

Should the CU be denied then they will continue to use the ? as our own currency and would need to set up our own central bank I believe.

[Boris]

Yes want a currency union first and foremost. The UK Gov say no chance but that could well be a bluff. When push comes to shove they may well realise that having our economy as part of theirs is a good thing along with not having to take on our share of the UK debt (?50bn). At a time when cuts are already being felt down south more than they are up here (thanks to our existing powers) I doubt the rUK electorate will be keen to take on more.

 

Should the CU be denied then they will continue to use the ? as our own currency and would need to set up our own central bank I believe.

 

It's been mooted that without CU Salmond will declare both countries as new states which means the UK will lose its coveted P5 seat at the UN. He is banking on the FO never letting that happen so there will be a CU with Scotland.

[hughesie27]

Cameron on Sky News now somewhere in Edinburgh (seems to be all hush hush) speaking to an invited audience.

 

Shrewd move.

[DETTY29]

Hi

 

I'm pretty unpolitical. A bit thick about these things too.

 

I'm in the no camp atm.

 

Can someone explain to me two things:

 

What is the actual 'yes' position on currency? All I hear from the no side is that the yes side have not explained it yet. Is this the case?

 

Also, has it been discussed that historically, countries breaking away from other countries on occasion can lead to war down the road when (in this case, England) decides they want Scotland back. Has this been discussed as a possible concern? Nationalism getting out of hand.

 

Genuine question on both counts.

I think your currency one is the only one you need to worry about. And it's been debated long enough on here. It's Salmond hoping that Westminster will play ball on currency union v. Westminster digging it's feet in and refusing a currency union / pound because they said they have, even if it impacts businesses across both economies.

 

If England does invade us, there is little we can do about. Just smile and say, (edit - the Tartan Army were correct all along and they really are a bunch of ***** all along

Edited September 10, 2014 by DETTY29

[Brandt]

Yes want a currency union first and foremost. The UK Gov say no chance but that could well be a bluff. When push comes to shove they may well realise that having our economy as part of theirs is a good thing along with not having to take on our share of the UK debt (?50bn). At a time when cuts are already being felt down south more than they are up here (thanks to our existing powers) I doubt the rUK electorate will be keen to take on more.

 

Should the CU be denied then they will continue to use the ? as our own currency and would need to set up our own central bank I believe.

 

Approx ?100bn.

 

I agree though, if the yes vote is had they will continue with the pound. Its simply a scare tactic and im certain it would a huge whack to both countries to change it all.

[Brandt]

I think your currency one is the only one you need to worry about. And it's been debated long enough on here. It's Salmond hoping that Westminster will play ball v. Westminster digging it's feet in and refusing a currency union / pound because they said they have, even if it impacts businesses across both economies.

 

If England does invade us, there is little we can do about. Just smile and say, what a bunch of ***** they really were after all.

 

Especially if they attack us from space!*

 

*According to Defence Secretary Philip Hammond.

[Craigieboy]

Thanks.

 

It's not been sorted properly enough for me.

[hughesie27]

Approx ?100bn.

 

I agree though, if the yes vote is had they will continue with the pound. Its simply a scare tactic and im certain it would a huge whack to both countries to change it all.

 

I stand corrected.

About ?2000 per head for the rUK to stump up, on top of their existing debt.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Approx ?100bn.

 

I agree though, if the yes vote is had they will continue with the pound. Its simply a scare tactic and im certain it would a huge whack to both countries to change it all.

Why do you think it is a scare tactic?

 

Was Mark Carney involved in scare tactics too?

[missed98]

Fresh from the MacWhirter tweet, i saw this article on the herald....

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-the-foreign-office-devo-units-drive-to-kill-off-independence.23269484

 

Leaving the rhetoric of the piece aside. If as claimed, they have been sending documents critical of independence with no balance in them to foreign powers, surely that has to be seen as an abuse of power.

[hughesie27]

Why do you think it is a scare tactic?

 

Was Mark Carney involved in scare tactics too?

 

I hope that isn't a reference to that god awful quote that has been used over the last day or 2.

[Yoda]

Approx ?100bn.

 

I agree though, if the yes vote is had they will continue with the pound. Its simply a scare tactic and im certain it would a huge whack to both countries to change it all.

 

If we continue to use the Pound, then England (now a foreign country) will be setting our interest rates. The'll be competing with us for jobs / resources etc. They wont do anything that's in our interests.

 

Anyway Labour / Tory / Liberals have all said it wont happen. I don't think they're bluffing and I'm not going to take that gamble.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

I hope that isn't a reference to that god awful quote that has been used over the last day or 2.

No. If you look at what Carney said he also referred to fiscal and banking union as well as a currency (monetary) union, in order for it to have any chance.

 

Now, if someone turned round and said "Ok, you can join us in a currency union if we get to veto your budget" would that be scaremongering too? That is the crux of what Carney said.

[Brandt]

Why do you think it is a scare tactic?

 

Was Mark Carney involved in scare tactics too?

 

Because they are desperate not to lose Scotland. Simple as that.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Because they are desperate not to lose Scotland. Simple as that.

So after putting their balls on the line and getting humiliated by losing, they would turn round and say they were wrong?

 

Ok then...

[hughesie27]

No. If you look at what Carney said he also referred to fiscal and banking union as well as a currency (monetary) union, in order for it to have any chance.

 

Now, if someone turned round and said "Ok, you can join us in a currency union if we get to veto your budget" would that be scaremongering too? That is the crux of what Carney said.

Fair enough. Presumably no CU would be agreed without both sides being satisfied with the set up. Is it likely that such an agreement would be unlikely?

[Brandt]

So after putting their balls on the line and getting humiliated by losing, they would turn round and say they were wrong?

 

Ok then...

 

There will be lots of talking in circles and a gradual climb down and im certain we will still use the pound.

 

i'd happily wager ?50 into the HYDC that we will use the pound if independance happens.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

Fair enough. Presumably no CU would be agreed without both sides being satisfied with the set up. Is it likely that such an agreement would be unlikely?

Very unlikely.

 

It is similar to the reasons why the UK stayed out of the Euro.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

There will be lots of talking in circles and a gradual climb down and im certain we will still use the pound.

 

i'd happily wager ?50 into the HYDC that we will use the pound if independance happens.

Within a currency union or not?

[GBJambo]

 

 

There will be lots of talking in circles and a gradual climb down and im certain we will still use the pound.

 

i'd happily wager ?50 into the HYDC that we will use the pound if independance happens.

 

Without a cu?

[TheMaganator]

Hi

 

I'm pretty unpolitical. A bit thick about these things too.

 

I'm in the no camp atm.

 

Can someone explain to me two things:

 

What is the actual 'yes' position on currency? All I hear from the no side is that the yes side have not explained it yet. Is this the case?

 

Also, has it been discussed that historically, countries breaking away from other countries on occasion can lead to war down the road when (in this case, England) decides they want Scotland back. Has this been discussed as a possible concern? Nationalism getting out of hand.

 

Genuine question on both counts.

 

The Yes camp want a currency Union. All of the westminster leaders have said it wont happen - it likely wont happen.

 

Their fallback (though Salmond has refused to actually utter the words) is to use the ? anyway in the same way that Panama used the US $. This can be done but is not desirable. We could also use the $ if we wanted.

 

In short - the position on currency is a shambles.

[The Mighty Thor]

Yes.

 

Can I ask yes voters, if things go the other way will you support another referendum to re-enter the Union?

If that's the case i look forward to the white paper on rejoining the union from Cameron Johnson et al.

[Yoda]

Yeah sounds great, where do I sign up?

 

Oh right, we already do.

 

 

Disingenuous at best. So, from the figures in posts above a drop from 6th to 14th. Stuff like this really puts me off Yes.

 

Once we take a realistic view on oil revenues (they're falling- fact) and the costs for all the free things the SNP are promising and the companies that leave (taking their tax revenues with them), I think we'll plummet. Might even pass Ireland, Portugal, Greece on the way down!

 

And we've not factored in the billions it will cost to set-up a tax system, pension system, military forces, embassies around the world, security services etc.....

[GBJambo]

 

 

The Yes camp want a currency Union. All of the westminster leaders have said it wont happen - it likely wont happen.

 

Their fallback (though Salmond has refused to actually utter the words) is to use the ? anyway in the same way that Panama used the US $. This can be done but is not desirable. We could also use the $ if we wanted.

 

In short - the position on currency is a shambles.

 

A Central Bank would be required though? How much will this cost?

 

[Yoda]

The Yes camp want a currency Union. All of the westminster leaders have said it wont happen - it likely wont happen.

 

Their fallback (though Salmond has refused to actually utter the words) is to use the ? anyway in the same way that Panama used the US $. This can be done but is not desirable. We could also use the $ if we wanted.

 

In short - the position on currency is a shambles.

 

I think Salmond will eventually go for the Chinese Yen.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

A Central Bank would be required though? How much will this cost?

In the grand scheme of things, not much. It should also have "seed capital" from hiving off a proportion of the Bank of England's assets, assuming of course debt liabilities are agreed.

[BoJack Horseman]

 

Then why the assertion that there will be a mandate to implement the white paper?

 

Sorry Chimp, I don't know what that means.

[The Mighty Thor]

The Yes camp want a currency Union. All of the westminster leaders have said it wont happen - it likely wont happen.

 

Their fallback (though Salmond has refused to actually utter the words) is to use the ? anyway in the same way that Panama used the US $. This can be done but is not desirable. We could also use the $ if we wanted.

 

In short - the position on currency is a shambles.

 

All of the Westminster leaders think Independence won't happen anyway, or at least they did until Sunday when they collectively shit themselves and started piling up north to tell the scotch how much they love us and really want us to stay. They say a CU won't happen? lets see about that.

 

Scotland will use the pound, just as it does right now. They won't knock your door on the 19th asking you to hand your tenners over.

 

What is a shambles is the no campaign and it's moveable feast of 'promises and timetables'

 

Genuine question for No campaigners; What happens if you want the status quo, by that i mean what if you want everything to remain exactly as it is right now? What you're effectively being offered is full blown independence with a yes or devo max with increased powers (an independence lite) with a no vote.

 

Not really what was originally planned was it?

[skinnybob72]

 

Cameron on Sky News now somewhere in Edinburgh (seems to be all hush hush) speaking to an invited audience.

 

Shrewd move.

 

 

He was at my place of work - Scottish Widows on Morrison St. Anyone here could go to listen to him. I elected not to.

[Brandt]

He was at my place of work - Scottish Widows on Morrison St. Anyone here could go to listen to him. I elected not to.

 

Good on you. Keep company productivity up. The kind of attitude we need in an independant Scotland.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Brandt

[GBJambo]

 

 

All of the Westminster leaders think Independence won't happen anyway, or at least they did until Sunday when they collectively shit themselves and started piling up north to tell the scotch how much they love us and really want us to stay. They say a CU won't happen? lets see about that.

 

Scotland will use the pound, just as it does right now. They won't knock your door on the 19th asking you to hand your tenners over.

 

What is a shambles is the no campaign and it's moveable feast of 'promises and timetables'

 

Genuine question for No campaigners; What happens if you want the status quo, by that i mean what if you want everything to remain exactly as it is right now? What you're effectively being offered is full blown independence with a yes or devo max with increased powers (an independence lite) with a no vote.

 

Not really what was originally planned was it?

 

"It's moveable feast of promises and timescales."

 

This can be said about the yes campaign.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Question for Yes voters: Do you really want a currency union and if so, why?

[The Mighty Thor]

He was at my place of work - Scottish Widows on Morrison St. Anyone here could go to listen to him. I elected not to.

 

London Scottish Widows post 19th?

[Guest GhostHunter]

In much the same way as Gibraltar uses the ? (the Gibraltar Pound), an independent Scotland would (in the absence of the highly unlikely CU) retain the Scottish Pound.

 

If, god forbids, we get independence, then my greatest hope, will be the UK government & BoE, allow the CU.

 

Either that, or I'll need to move lock stock and two screaming demons, to Englandshire.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

In much the same way as Gibraltar uses the ? (the Gibraltar Pound), an independent Scotland would (in the absence of the highly unlikely CU) retain the Scottish Pound.

 

If, god forbids, we get independence, then my greatest hope, will be the UK government & BoE, allow the CU.

 

Either that, or I'll need to move lock stock and two screaming demons, to Englandshire.

Probably best that JKB admins stay out of Scotland!

 

[Brandt]

In much the same way as Gibraltar uses the ? (the Gibraltar Pound), an independent Scotland would (in the absence of the highly unlikely CU) retain the Scottish Pound.

 

If, god forbids, we get independence, then my greatest hope, will be the UK government & BoE, allow the CU.

 

Either that, or I'll need to move lock stock and two screaming demons, to Englandshire.

 

I'll buy your season ticket off you

[Ivan Drago]

 

Thanks.

 

It's not been sorted properly enough for me.

 

Even if we get the currency union we still won't control our interest rates and therefore wouldn't have full control of our economy.

[Tiberius Stinkfinger]

So, when do the walls go up then ??

Already some good momentum where I live suggesting that if Scotland doesn't want to be part of the union then borders control's should go up immediately, there is also no way that the English public will want to share currency and that sort of thing swings elections down here.

The only people who are going to be worse of with a Yes vote are the Scots, 100%.

[The Mighty Thor]

"It's moveable feast of promises and timescales."

 

This can be said about the yes campaign.

 

I suppose it can, however they put it in a white paper therefore it is a moveable feast of things defined. The Golden Brown back of fag packet devo panic offer is not defined, not costed, not agreed and not likely to happen.

[Coco]

It's been mooted that without CU Salmond will declare both countries as new states which means the UK will lose its coveted P5 seat at the UN. He is banking on the FO never letting that happen so there will be a CU with Scotland.

 

Salmond will 'declare' both countries as new States?

 

[Ivan Drago]

Statement from Standard Life: (apologies if posted)

 

http://www.standardlife.com/utility/customer_statement-2.html

[Maple Leaf]

This is quite an interesting piece regards the recent market reaction. Could this be true?

 

http://newsnetscotla...-devalues-pound

 

Interesting indeed.

 

"We know that the currency of an independent Scotland will be the pound - even Alistair Darling has conceded this - and the Scottish Government has a range of options, but favours a solution that makes continuing trade between Scotland and rUK free of transaction costs.

Such a solution is more beneficial to rUK than to Scotland because Scotland imports more from rUK than it exports. It is the one plus on rUK's balance of trade. Scotland on the other hand has a healthy balance of trade surplus."

 

The way that article reads, it sounds like Osborne shot himself in the foot.

[BoJack Horseman]

Question for Yes voters: Do you really want a currency union and if so, why?

 

I'd like to keep using the money that's in my pocket. I've been told enough times that it's not accepted in England anyway, so I can't see how it will make a difference in the long term. If we have to switch to something else, then so be it.

[Stuart Lyon]

skinnybob72 - how long do you think you'll be working there if there is a Yes vote?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

 

 

Interesting indeed.

 

"We know that the currency of an independent Scotland will be the pound - even Alistair Darling has conceded this - and the Scottish Government has a range of options, but favours a solution that makes continuing trade between Scotland and rUK free of transaction costs.

Such a solution is more beneficial to rUK than to Scotland because Scotland imports more from rUK than it exports. It is the one plus on rUK's balance of trade. Scotland on the other hand has a healthy balance of trade surplus."

 

The way that article reads, it sounds like Osborne shot himself in the foot.

And that source is in no way biased.

 

This super economy being held back by the millstone that is the other countries in the UK. So much so that the plan is to use sterling with or without a CU.

 

Ron, could you ever see Canada adopting the US dollar rather than the loonie?

[Thunderstruck]

We already have a currency union and we have a say on how the economy is run that underpins that currency.

 

If we become independent and join a currency union, we are, theoretically, no worse off.

 

The reality would be different:

 

We would lose the seats in Westminster but have to accept its monetary policy.

 

We could only spend what we raised - no extras, no Barnett and none of the other inflows such as rail investment, defence spending and the renewables subsidy.

 

We would be constrained in how taxation could be varied - "you want to use our pound but you want to cut taxes to tempt business north? Eh, naw!"

 

In short, we might have the pound but the net result would be a weaker and poorer Scotland as it struggled to set up its institutions of state, its defence forces, it's energy policy (including new power plants) and myriad others from air traffic control to telecoms.

 

Oil, Whisky and renewables will not (together) cover the Barnett gap never mind the other costs.

 

If I was a Westminster politician, I would allow the CU.

 

If I was Salmond, I would grab the new powers with both hands; it is by far the best deal around.