Gorgiewave Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's like the Friday night before the Saturday wedding with the bride and groom separate. See you all in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf's Mate Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No 57% - Yes 43% though could also be the other way round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 50.2%, No 49.8% and carnage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasoncrest Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 "Exclusive: First Minister phoned Prof Louise Richardson demanding she clarify remarks while emails show key aide urged principal to issue statement praising SNP Government" http://www.telegraph...e-concerns.html Democracy SNP style. Deary me. I seriously despise that man and every single Nat out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 It's just impossible to predict how it will go. The pollsters seem to be converging on 48-52 for No, but given the margin of error that is still a statistical dead heat. But I don't think the pollsters can be an accurate guide to what will happen if the turnout is well above 70% - and I believe that a turnout in excess of 70% favours Yes. I was also struck by the comments made by Martin Boon of ICM about the potential for the pollsters to get it wrong, and by his comments about the possibility that the polls are overstating the Yes vote. I've had a concern that the weighting methodology used by a lot of polling companies - whereby responses are weighted by reference to the 2011 Holyrood result - is adding to the Yes tally, and I've had exchanges of emails with both ICM and Ipsos-MORI about this (ICM do this weighting but Ipsos-MORI don't). But imponderables or not, I'd better get off the fence and make a call. Turnout 72%. Yes 48.5%, No 51.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Energy firm EDF comes out against yes . See if you can guess the famous brother of their Head of communications . Give you a clue he is famous for ending Boom and Bust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie-Brown Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 1.9M No 1.8M or vice versa it will be very close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 By way of a final word from me before the polls close (well, this thread may re-open a little while beforehand to allow more forecasts from members), I want to thank everyone who took part, and I particularly appreciated the dedication and sheer stamina shown by some of the top contributors to the thread - if I ever get the opportunity to buy some of you a pint (in pounds, Scottish pounds or euro) I'll be well pleased. Notwithstanding the number of interventions the moderators had to make (and the management team hugely appreciate what they do), I'd like to think that JKB offered its members the chance to have a high standard of debate - and I would thank a great many of you (both Yes and No supporters) who took that opportunity and made the most of it. Looking back over my own contributions, I am aware that people on both sides of the debate have at different times assumed I was against their side. I wasn't - but I have to be honest and say that if I caused both Yes and No supporters to think I was opposed to them then I'm OK with that. What I do hope is that some of what I posted made sense and was informative and useful to the occasional reader once in a while. I mentioned once that I wouldn't be celebrating if No were to win. In truth, I'm not likely to be celebrating either way. Despite my engagement with this debate - and I'll continue to be engaged with the referendum right up until the daylight hours of Friday morning - it's not my gig to vote in or celebrate one way or another. But it is yours, and I wish you well in the decision you are making - individually and collectively, whether Scottish or British. Over and out for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boaby Ewing Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) . Edited September 17, 2014 by Dave de le Noir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boaby Ewing Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Let's set fire to tears. Yes 53 percent. No 47 percent. Turnout 79 percent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalamazoo Jambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 49% No 51% Turnout 75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Never gave a turnout figure. I will say 83% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadKiller Dog Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) My guess Dundee( strongly ) and Glasgow will go yes Edinburgh No Aberdeen No just Overall 52 Yes 48 No turnout 81% Yes has a bit more of a spring in its step . Interesting times ahead these islands have changed no matter the result . Edited September 17, 2014 by ToadKiller Dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GhostHunter Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I'll come back for my guess... Yes - 52% No - 48% Turnout >90% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mighty Thor Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Oh a predictor game...... I'm going for 51.1% Yes to 48.9% No Turnout 86% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimus Prime Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 53 No 47 Turnout 82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bilel Mohsni Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No 55 Yes 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecapjambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Enjoyed reading from afar. Can't vote but glad my country is making news around the world for such a huge level of involvement in the vote. Prediction: 51% Yes 49% No Turnout 86.5% Just don't burn the place down before I can make it back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malinga the Swinga Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 48.2, No 51.8, turnout 88.6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBJambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No 53 Yes 47 Turnout 80% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 55/45 No. Same again in 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaganator Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 55+ No Turnout 87% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 100% Turnout 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamboX2 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 52 Yes 48 No 82% turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hughesie27 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) 59% Yes 41% No Turnout 78% Edited September 17, 2014 by hughesie27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott herbertson Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No 52.3 Yes 47.7. Turnout 84% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 100% Turnout 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossthejambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 51 No, 49 Yes is my guess Turnout around about 89% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMac Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 56/44 for no. thought 57/43 for no a few weeks ago but yes have the momentum. 74% turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoJack Horseman Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Well, good luck all. It's been fun quoting news articles with you. Hope you get the result you're after. More realistic prediction from me. I can't see it being they close at all, there will be at least 10 points in it either way. As I'm Yes, I'll go in favour of that. 57% Yes 43% No I think the turn out will be huge. It's like a cup final. No one wants to be the guy that didn't vote coke Friday. 91% turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coco Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Have enjoyed the debate on here, not so much in the air war. Lots of self-congratulatory stuff on how 'engaged' people are; searching for experts to confirm their view and then post the drivel on social media. Political immaturity in the debate - where is the depth in debate on the issues? Recycled focus grouped soundbites. "The only people to ever consider oil as a burden", accompanied by that sort of sneering giggle. We get anodyne stuff about how Scotland can or can't 'keep' the pound or the garbage about the NHS. Trammelled debates where free thinking is unwelcome or not even considered. Why should a newly independent Scotland retain the institutions which the UK has signed up to and not consider its own path? How have the SNP been able to style the vote as a vote on their mandate as set out in the White Paper? More public spending is always 'better'. The enormous focus on the public sector in the debate. Use of short term data and political choices to define a constitutional choice. Very few people listening, many talking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan Drago Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Optimistic to say the least! I'm not making a prediction as I'd no doubt get it completely wrong. See you on the other side chaps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Kilpatrick Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Have enjoyed the debate on here, not so much in the air war. Lots of self-congratulatory stuff on how 'engaged' people are; searching for experts to confirm their view and then post the drivel on social media. Political immaturity in the debate - where is the depth in debate on the issues? Recycled focus grouped soundbites. "The only people to ever consider oil as a burden", accompanied by that sort of sneering giggle. We get anodyne stuff about how Scotland can or can't 'keep' the pound or the garbage about the NHS. Trammelled debates where free thinking is unwelcome or not even considered. Why should a newly independent Scotland retain the institutions which the UK has signed up to and not consider its own path? How have the SNP been able to style the vote as a vote on their mandate as set out in the White Paper? More public spending is always 'better'. The enormous focus on the public sector in the debate. Use of short term data and political choices to define a constitutional choice. Very few people listening, many talking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statts1976uk Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 52% No 48% turnout 81%. See you all on Friday to disect the results! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo_ Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 YES = 41% NO = 59% for me its like a storm in a teacup.. looking forward to never hearing the word 'referendum' again in my lifetime! Godspeed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Turnout 87% Yes 48.7% No 50.8% Penises drawn on ballot papers 0.5% Bullshit, lies and back tracking by politicians - every single last one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Comedian Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Slim YES victory. Much coughing and spluttering afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radio Ga Ga Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 61% No 39% Yes, (due to the silent minority) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTHO Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No 57% Yes 43% 92% turnout as it's meant to be a dry day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf's Mate Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Darling on BBC news condemning nationalists for intimidating Milliband. Never seen anything like it in 35 years as MP. Whilst I totally agree this was disappointing, Darling has forgotten the miners strikes and the poll tax demos! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hasselhoff Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 52% No 48% I think the 3 year old voters in Dundee will be the difference.... Is that why salmond wanted 16-18 year olds to be able to vote? The checks on them should have been just as stringent as those in the adult register. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kramer Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No 58% Yes 42% with around 85% turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yes 52% No 48% I think the 3 year old voters in Dundee will be the difference.... Is that why salmond wanted 16-18 year olds to be able to vote? The checks on them should have been just as stringent as those in the adult register. He thought he would get more votes from the young - but the MORI Poll showed the other way around. The young and Old were both strong Nos, while the big Yes vote was from 25-34 year olds. Could be an own goal if that holds up tomorrow. If it does, there will be an interesting discussion as to how this came about. Still another IPSOS Poll and a YouGov one to come out today though. Odds shifted a lot in Betfair towards No but other Bookies still holding at around 3/1 on Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambo1185 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) I have no idea how this will go, but I think turnout will be above 85%. More last minute problems for Salmond, appears he hasn't spoken to the countries he said he had spoken to about EU membership after all: http://www.telegraph...r-EU-talks.html Edited September 17, 2014 by jambo1185 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I have no idea how this will go, but I think turnout will be above 85%. More last minute problems for Salmond, appears he hasn't spoken to the countries he said he had spoken to about EU membership after all: http://www.telegraph...r-EU-talks.html That is rather obvious that Eck was waffling. EU membership is my biggest issue as I work in the EU every winter. We will be out and Eck can avoid this debate as much as possible, but no way will the Spanish allow iScotland a free pass in, for obvious national reasons. Read the article. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Lyon Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Not honest Eck surely. He can't be trusted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusk_Till_Dawn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Vote no, yo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Burgundy Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Just saw a post on FB saying if you're unsure how to vote then go and watch Braveheart. Unbelievable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I have no idea how this will go, but I think turnout will be above 85%. More last minute problems for Salmond, appears he hasn't spoken to the countries he said he had spoken to about EU membership after all: http://www.telegraph...r-EU-talks.html A bit of misinformation in the article though. "All 28 existing member states would have to reach unanimous agreement on the process a separate Scotland would have to follow and the terms on which it would join." This would be true if scotland were to apply via article 49, however there is every likelihood that Scotland would gain entry via article 48 which simply requires a majority. So, as ever there are muddied waters, but I guess it's who you believe. If Eck's been telling porkies, well, he's silly. But a YES vote isn't a vote for Eck. Anyway, my prediction.... A slim NO victory. 52/48 If YES wins then they will win large 58+ Huge turnout too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deesidejambo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Not honest Eck surely. He can't be trusted. Well he has done a great job pulling the wool over the big issues like EU Membership. Instead he prefers to drivel about "Team Scotland". Rubbish campaign, aimed at the lowest denominator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.