heart of lothian Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 You require capital in the first place but you can't deny property is a safe bet in the long term. Stocks return three times as much and your money is just as safe over the same term as a mortgage. (25 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 You require capital in the first place but you can't deny property is a safe bet in the long term. When has anybody ever said that ? I know I haven't. And I can't see anyone else on this thread saying that either. I have just stated we are at the end of the 'up' section and heading seriously for the 'down' section. And this 'down' bit is going to be fairly intense. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 And my opinions are mostly my own. The competition is fierce, but that is, by far, my favourite sentence that I have read from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Stocks return three times as much and your money is just as safe over the same term as a mortgage. (25 years). You can't live in them though, can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 The competition is fierce, but that is, by far, my favourite sentence that I have read from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heart of lothian Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 You can't live in them though' date=' can you? [/quote'] No, but I can sell my overinflated properties, invest my money, live in someone elses over mortgaged house for half the price, retire in five years and watch all the 'good long term investment' house owners go to work while I have my morning walk for the paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 No' date=' but I can sell my overinflated properties, invest my money, live in someone elses over mortgaged house for half the price, retire in five years and watch all the 'good long term investment' house owners go to work while I have my morning walk for the paper.[/quote'] Not bad if you've got the money in the first place. I'll be retired early anyway with you, after I've taken my money's worth out of the legal aid system and fleeced Joe Public in their hour of need. That's what all lawyers are all about, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 I'm a banking and property finance lawyer. If you ask 10 banking lawyers, you'll get 10 succinct answers. Sub-prime is having no material effect on Scottish clearing banks and their appetite for commercial lending, that's the view of the Head of Property of at least two of the clearing banks I deal with on a daily basis. In their words "business as usual" and their views are that this applies locally to domestic lending (albeit there has been a tangible slowing of the market). There's no point in picking random banking terminology and using that as a basis for your arguments. The problem with your internet sources are that they take little consideration of local factors and the Scottish market in isolation, you really need to step your game up here. You can quote as many generic banking sites as you like but you're not working at the coal face now, are you? And as for doing me a favour or anyone else for that matter, what are you havering about? I've speculated and accumulated on a personal level for 7 years now and my property is currently sitting with a sizeable chunk of equity, I can stomach a little slow down in the short term. That's the name of the game. Many others are in the same boat. Apart from you of course, as you seem scared of the big bad crash. Your 'heads' clearly know very little then: Nationwide have this week announced that only borrowers with at least a 25% deposit will get their best rates. RBS have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Lloyds TSB have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Cheltenham and Gloucester have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Woolwich, owned by Barclays, cut the amount it will lend buy-to-let landlords from 85% to 75% of the purchase price last week. BM Solutions will withdraw loans for landlords whose rent covers just 100% of their repayments from tomorrow. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/borrowing/article3465450.ece So how is the above for 'random banking terminology'.................. The fact is many lenders are tightening their grip on how much they allow people to borrow. That is a FACT. And yet you, a banking and property finance lawyer, and the 'heads' that you deal with state that it is 'business as usual' at the 'coal face'...... Thanks very much for your input into this thread. You have helped me make my point very well. The point being certain people have zero clue about what is going on. Even though you would expect them to. Thank you. Very kind of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Stocks return three times as much and your money is just as safe over the same term as a mortgage. (25 years). Don't scare these people !! They don't want to know that stocks have outperformed property by a massive amount consistently over the past 100 years. That doesn't fit in with all the exciting property shows they watch !! For example how are my shares doing ? Up almost 15% after tax in little over 4 months. No property in Edinburgh has made that much in the last 4 months. But hey, I suppose I am the foolish one for not 'getting on the ladder' when I had the chance............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 The competition is fierce, but that is, by far, my favourite sentence that I have read from you. Ah Mr Peebo !! I wondered when you would appear. Strange that more and more people are coming out with the 'crazy' scenarios I have been talking about for ages. Good old CC can't be right after all, can he.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heart of lothian Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Don't scare these people !! They don't want to know that stocks have outperformed property by a massive amount consistently over the past 100 years. That doesn't fit in with all the exciting property shows they watch !! For example how are my shares doing ? Up almost 15% after tax in little over 4 months. No property in Edinburgh has made that much in the last 4 months. But hey, I suppose I am the foolish one for not 'getting on the ladder' when I had the chance............. petrol goes up...riots in the streets food up 25% this year....terrible train tickets up 13%.... lets have a commuter strike electicity and gas up by 15%....I know lets have a windfall tax House prices up 30%....Well done everyone, have another glass of bubbly! Only in Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 petrol goes up...riots in the streets food up 25% this year....terrible train tickets up 13%.... lets have a commuter strike electicity and gas up by 15%....I know lets have a windfall tax House prices up 30%....Well done everyone, have another glass of bubbly! Only in Britain. It seems some other posters don't like it when we post FACTS they are unable to argue with..... My figures this afternoon for example. Clear evidence that house prices in Edinburgh are indeed falling, and not just due to some 'seasonal' reasons. And how many times has that been quoted........ Ah yes zero. Strange that. These people only want to hear what they want. I personally could do with this crash holding fire for a while longer. I know people that need to sell a house and I hope they get a good price for it. I am however too savvy to think this situation will not occur very soon. You seem like a savvy man yourself Heart of Lothian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Your 'heads' clearly know very little then: Nationwide have this week announced that only borrowers with at least a 25% deposit will get their best rates. RBS have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Lloyds TSB have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Cheltenham and Gloucester have pulled their mortgages for anyone with less than a 10% deposit. Woolwich, owned by Barclays, cut the amount it will lend buy-to-let landlords from 85% to 75% of the purchase price last week. BM Solutions will withdraw loans for landlords whose rent covers just 100% of their repayments from tomorrow. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/borrowing/article3465450.ece So how is the above for 'random banking terminology'.................. The fact is many lenders are tightening their grip on how much they allow people to borrow. That is a FACT. And yet you, a banking and property finance lawyer, and the 'heads' that you deal with state that it is 'business as usual' at the 'coal face'...... Thanks very much for your input into this thread. You have helped me make my point very well. The point being certain people have zero clue about what is going on. Even though you would expect them to. Thank you. Very kind of you. Your speciality is moving the goalposts. The facts are there for anyone with the nous to search the financial sections of any broadsheet. Banks are still lending "business as usual". The variety of products on offer is being trimmed. It happens from time to time. That's no secret, it's a calculated response to a perpetually volatile market. I will repeat this for you again, as you don't seem to have picked it up the first time; the sub-prime American market is having no material effect on Scottish clearing banks and their lending appetite. I think the Bank Heads would know, given that they sanction lending package credit approvals daily. I will leave it there because you're not one for digressing FACTS, despite the fact you incessantly bang on about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tedp6873 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 I think i recall from the last property thread (I'm sure CC will clarify), that CC's strategy to protect himself from the carnage is to remain living with his parents. The rest of us property owning chumps are doomed. That's why the market is drowing in subjects for sale - it's all the people who work in the industry getting out fast. or to invest in gold lol ;):p how's that going CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 ESPC own Figures: 2005: Q1 165k Q2 179k Q3 176k Q4 177k 2006: Q1 179k Q2 200k Q3 200k Q4 197k 2008: Q1 208k Q2 228k Q3 222k Q4 215k In the last 3 years prices have not fallen more than 3k even taking into account 'seasonal differences'. In the last 6 months they have fallen 13k. At the same time sales volumes are down over 15% on the same time last year. What would that be telling you... Of course being in the industry you would know all this. Why you would then spout the drivel that I have quoted above I do not know. Oh actually I do. Fear. Fear that the party is over. Fear that prices are starting to come down to their long term average - eg... 3-4 X average salary. As I have said most EA's and Mortgage advisors have zero clue about the situation at the present. I think the above post supports this perfectly. http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=393 The latest news release from ESPC would not appear to support your statistics, even the ones you appear to have made up for the year yet to come. I knew you were a soothsayer and still you deny it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJambo Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 or to invest in gold lol ;):p how's that going CC probably very well, gold's been gaining lots of value like many other metals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Ah Mr Peebo !! I wondered when you would appear. Strange that more and more people are coming out with the 'crazy' scenarios I have been talking about for ages. Good old CC can't be right after all, can he.......... It's not that that strange; since not all of "your" opinions are actually your own, logic would suggest that some of your predictions are also plagiarised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 It seems some other posters don't like it when we post FACTS they are unable to argue with..... My figures this afternoon for example. Clear evidence that house prices in Edinburgh are indeed falling, and not just due to some 'seasonal' reasons. And how many times has that been quoted........ Ah yes zero. Strange that. These people only want to hear what they want. I personally could do with this crash holding fire for a while longer. I know people that need to sell a house and I hope they get a good price for it. I am however too savvy to think this situation will not occur very soon. You seem like a savvy man yourself Heart of Lothian. I just got one last question for you CC... What sort of timescale are you predicting? You've clearly done your internet research and, although you may or may not actually work in the finance/property industry, you're clearly intelligient enough to work out which way the wind is blowing way before those that do work in either of those fields. When do you see your doomsday scenario happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=393 The latest news release from ESPC would not appear to support your statistics, even the ones you appear to have made up for the year yet to come. I knew you were a soothsayer and still you deny it. Oh dear. yes my figures had the wrong years above them. I apologise for that. I think you know what years I am discussing though. Revised below: 2005: Q1 165k Q2 179k Q3 176k Q4 177k 2006: Q1 179k Q2 200k Q3 200k Q4 197k 2007: Error fixed. Q1 208k Q2 228k Q3 222k Q4 215k Amd the link you have attached above is from the very same people !! They are saying that prices are still rising even though THEIR OWN FIGURES show they have fallen by over 5% since July 2007......... The reason they can do this is because they use the year on year figures. That is fine and dandy, but distorts the fact that prices have fallen since July, and by quite a fair bit, as I stated in my previous post... This is 'selective reporting' at its best. You have just been taken in by the headline 'House price inflation remains strong'. As I said previously try looking at the figures yourself and make your own mind up. Rather than just believing what a publication that wants house prices to remain high tells you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 or to invest in gold lol ;):p how's that going CC As JamboinAberdeen points out very nicely indeed. Almost an 18% increase tax free at the moment. In less than 4 months. If only you had taken my advice back in [circa] October You could have made yourself a tidy sum of money. Only tricky thing is knowing when to sell !! You do need to be a soothsayer for that. But I know this is something that can go up as well as down in value so I will take my chances. Shame the same can't be said for many people when discussing property. That is all I am trying to point out to people. Nothing more, nothing less. I didn't think it would be this difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I just got one last question for you CC... What sort of timescale are you predicting? You've clearly done your internet research and, although you may or may not actually work in the finance/property industry, you're clearly intelligient enough to work out which way the wind is blowing way before those that do work in either of those fields. When do you see your doomsday scenario happening? First of all I don't think this is a 'doomsday scenario'. Some people do, but I personaly do not, and I would rather it didn't get that bad. I just see a good few years of people having to pay for the excesses of the last 10. That is a good thing IMO. Houses will again become affordable for people that want to buy them to live in. I can't quite fathom why anyone could see this is a bad thing. As for timing who knows. I think for Edinburgh I have already made my prediction. Anyway I predict August will be the time of reckoning for the Edinburgh market. The figures used for property are 'year on year'. Using the ESPC's own figures the average price has fallen from 229k to 215k since July last year.( So your assertion that prices 'did not fall' during this time is incorrent) BUT if you compare it to a year ago it has risen from about 200k to 215k. So whether prices are going up or not changes simply depending on your timescales. If the average house sells for less than 229k up to July 2008 then they will have to publish falling 'year on year' prices in Edinburgh for the first time in probably 15 years. That will be massive news. Momentum on the way up could very easily turn to momentum on the way down. Don't say I didn't warn you. Also expect to see far far more new build flats up for sale from April onwards. (On top of the large numbers already for sale.) This will be due to the new CGT rules that are coming into force at that time. People trying to get as much out of their 'investment' when they can. Anyway' date=' as I have said before, I could be completely wrong about my predictions. But I would be very surprised[/quote'] I may be wrong but having a look in the ESPC paper today I think not. Have a look at the listings at the back and see how many are 'Fixed Price'. I would hazard a guess well over 50%. We all know people only sell at a fixed price in Edinburgh if they can't sell at offers over. This would tell me over 50% of people in Edinburgh right now trying to sell are having difficulty. Added to that this is the busiest time of the year. Does not bode well. Anyway I hope to have a nice big wad of cash in a few years to snap up a bargain. I think the chance of that occuring is growing by the day. Of course I may not even buy a house. I don't like commitment so I may just live the ***** lifestyle. Good to have the freedom to choose though. Anyone buying a house today near 100% LTV is, IMO, running the risk of having that choice taken away for the foreseable future. I am just trying to educate people in something that until a few years back I was totally ignorant about. If I come across as 'know it all' or anything similar that is not my intention. I have just worked out ,over the past year especially, that I do know a lot more than people in positions of power in this country. That is very worrying really. I am just a numpty poster on JKB after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 ...I am just a numpty poster on JKB after all. Aren't we all mate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Oh dear. yes my figures had the wrong years above them. I apologise for that. I think you know what years I am discussing though. Revised below: 2005: Q1 165k Q2 179k Q3 176k Q4 177k 2006: Q1 179k Q2 200k Q3 200k Q4 197k 2007: Error fixed. Q1 208k Q2 228k Q3 222k Q4 215k Amd the link you have attached above is from the very same people !! They are saying that prices are still rising even though THEIR OWN FIGURES show they have fallen by over 5% since July 2007......... The reason they can do this is because they use the year on year figures. That is fine and dandy, but distorts the fact that prices have fallen since July, and by quite a fair bit, as I stated in my previous post... This is 'selective reporting' at its best. You have just been taken in by the headline 'House price inflation remains strong'. As I said previously try looking at the figures yourself and make your own mind up. Rather than just believing what a publication that wants house prices to remain high tells you. That's a fine piece of undercover detective work there Sherlock. You use ESPC as evidence to substantiate your position but then chastise them for "selective reporting". Which is it to be Mr Goalpost mover? I only quoted that article as a counter story to your figures. I know what the market's like as it's my living to know. You, however, well, who knows, you seem to have intimate knowledge about a few subjects. I think you spend a little too much time on Mummy and Daddy's PC personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heart of lothian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 That's a fine piece of undercover detective work there Sherlock. You use ESPC as evidence to substantiate your position but then chastise them for "selective reporting". Which is it to be Mr Goalpost mover? I only quoted that article as a counter story to your figures. I know what the market's like as it's my living to know. You, however, well, who knows, you seem to have intimate knowledge about a few subjects. I think you spend a little too much time on Mummy and Daddy's PC personally. Sorry Chip, have to agree with CC on this one. When the latest ESPC figures came out there was a full blooded article on prices and trends which disappeared rather quickly to be replaced with an article stating 'prices continued to grow in the last few months of 2007' All lies. Their own stats show the drop! Looks like turkeys pretending there is no christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 That's a fine piece of undercover detective work there Sherlock. You use ESPC as evidence to substantiate your position but then chastise them for "selective reporting". Which is it to be Mr Goalpost mover? I only quoted that article as a counter story to your figures. I know what the market's like as it's my living to know. You, however, well, who knows, you seem to have intimate knowledge about a few subjects. I think you spend a little too much time on Mummy and Daddy's PC personally. Point 1 - That was my whole point in using ESPC for both. If you delve into their figures you realise the 'headline' they are giving, which is read by your average Joe, is misleading to say the least. Again you have proven my point brilliantly. Thanks. Point 2 - It is your living to know how the market is ? In your previous post you stated it was 'business at usual' at the 'coal face'. You also stated that the crunch and sub prime had not impacted lenders and what they would borrow commercially or domestically. I then COMPELTELY DESTROYED YOUR ARGUMENT by stating the lenders that have pulled offers and limits in the past week alone. Why did you not reply to that post. I wonder. The fact is you are the perfect example of the people I am talking about. Your work is closely linked to property. You should know what is going on. But in fact you only know what is required to do your job. Fair enough. But don't pretend you know about the bigger situation because you clearly do not. Answer post 58 and then tell me you know what you are talking about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Heaney Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I should just give up. Go and find 10 estate agents or solicitors. Ask them what sub prime is. Ask them what fractional reserve banking is. Ask them what LIBOR is. Ask them what a CDO is. If they all know the answer to all the above questions I will give you ?10,000. ] Hey CC, I've just asked 5 in my office here and we all knew the answers, only 5 more to go and I'm 10k to the good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Hey CC, I've just asked 5 in my office here and we all knew the answers, only 5 more to go and I'm 10k to the good You should get bonus cash for asking dumbass yanks, as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Heaney Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 You should get bonus cash for asking dumbass yanks, as well... 2 things, technically MD is not considered "yankee" country as its south of the Mason Dixon line (who's the dumbass now ) and who says it was five Americans that I asked ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Hey CC, I've just asked 5 in my office here and we all knew the answers, only 5 more to go and I'm 10k to the good Nice try, but I was talking about UK estate agents and solicitors. The only reason your boys know over there is because it has been plastered all over the media for almost a year now. The EA's and sols in the UK still think this is just a problem in the US, and so haven't bothered to work out what it all actually means. The full impact of this mess is yet to hit them, but it is gettign pretty close. I predict many will soon be using Wikipedia to find out what these things may mean for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Heaney Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Nice try, but I was talking about UK estate agents and solicitors. The only reason your boys know over there is because it has been plastered all over the media for almost a year now. The EA's and sols in the UK still think this is just a problem in the US, and so haven't bothered to work out what it all actually means. The full impact of this mess is yet to hit them, but it is gettign pretty close. I predict many will soon be using Wikipedia to find out what these things may mean for them. Ach, C'mon CC, you didn't state what the rules were. I sense some Fair Housing issues creeping in here, you cannot discriminate But on a serious note, I know what you are saying when it comes to agents (US or UK) being ill informed. For the most part across here there are too many agents who are about as bright as a blackout when it comes to knowing financing and legal issues that go along with a home purchase. Here in Maryland agents play a huge role in the sale or purchase of a home and I cannot believe how easy it is for someone to become licensed which would allow them to play a significant part in someones biggest financial decision in their life. But here we have part time agents who do it for a fast buck , mothers who wanna get out the house for a few hours and others who are almost unemployable elesewhere. The flip side to the coin is there are many good , informed agents who for the most part control their local markets with the rest of the idiots feeding of their closest friends and relatives. They soon get found out and leave. This tougher market has started to weed them out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bill duff Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Ach, C'mon CC, you didn't state what the rules were. I sense some Fair Housing issues creeping in here, you cannot discriminate But on a serious note, I know what you are saying when it comes to agents (US or UK) being ill informed. For the most part across here there are too many agents who are about as bright as a blackout when it comes to knowing financing and legal issues that go along with a home purchase. Here in Maryland agents play a huge role in the sale or purchase of a home and I cannot believe how easy it is for someone to become licensed which would allow them to play a significant part in someones biggest financial decision in their life. But here we have part time agents who do it for a fast buck , mothers who wanna get out the house for a few hours and others who are almost unemployable elesewhere. The flip side to the coin is there are many good , informed agents who for the most part control their local markets with the rest of the idiots feeding of their closest friends and relatives. They soon get found out and leave. This tougher market has started to weed them out And how did you get licensed??? Anybody that thinks that ANY market cannot be affected is Uncle Dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Point 1 - That was my whole point in using ESPC for both. If you delve into their figures you realise the 'headline' they are giving, which is read by your average Joe, is misleading to say the least. Again you have proven my point brilliantly. Thanks. Point 2 - It is your living to know how the market is ? In your previous post you stated it was 'business at usual' at the 'coal face'. You also stated that the crunch and sub prime had not impacted lenders and what they would borrow commercially or domestically. I then COMPELTELY DESTROYED YOUR ARGUMENT by stating the lenders that have pulled offers and limits in the past week alone. Why did you not reply to that post. I wonder. The fact is you are the perfect example of the people I am talking about. Your work is closely linked to property. You should know what is going on. But in fact you only know what is required to do your job. Fair enough. But don't pretend you know about the bigger situation because you clearly do not. Answer post 58 and then tell me you know what you are talking about.... I haven't seen any source for your figures yet. I'm laughing at you trying to use ESPC as an authoritative source on one hand but with the other, you are stating their figures are misleading. The chairman of ESPC predicts a modest growth figure of 3-5% for the year, I suspect he'll be pretty much accurate. Presumably therefore your doomsday scenario is at least another year off in that case. I've answered your post 58; twice in fact. Unfortunately you don't appear to possess the analytical capabilities to take what I've said on. That's what sets you and me apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Heaney Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 And how did you get licensed??? Anybody that thinks that ANY market cannot be affected is Uncle Dick. You sat the test for me Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tazio Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 In terms of the average house prices from the ESPC they don't actually mean a great deal if there are only 2k or so in the deviations. In Edinburgh that could be caused by no sales on Herriot Row or The Grange in any given quarter. They would make more sense if it gave you the percentages for sales between ?100k and ?250k for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I haven't seen any source for your figures yet. I'm laughing at you trying to use ESPC as an authoritative source on one hand but with the other, you are stating their figures are misleading. The chairman of ESPC predicts a modest growth figure of 3-5% for the year, I suspect he'll be pretty much accurate. Presumably therefore your doomsday scenario is at least another year off in that case. I've answered your post 58; twice in fact. Unfortunately you don't appear to possess the analytical capabilities to take what I've said on. That's what sets you and me apart. Holy **** you just don't get it do you !! Source for figures is below . Look at the bottom of the page. This is where they state the ACTUAL DETAILS. http://www.espc.com/UniversalPages/MediaRoom.html I didn't state their FIGURES are misleading, I stated their HEADLINES are misleading , read AGAIN what I stated in a previous post: You have just been taken in by the headline 'House price inflation remains strong'. As I said previously try looking at the figures yourself and make your own mind up[/b']. Rather than just believing what a publication that wants house prices to remain high tells you. Are you just trying to back up my argument at every possible moment ?? Because you are doing a damn fine job of it !! You are someone who has stated "I know what the market's like as it's my living to know." And yet you don't even know where to get the ESPC quarterly reports..... And you thought that it is 'Business as usual' for lenders when in fact numerous mortgage lenders are cutting back on what and who they will lend to...... You are a Lawyer whose work is linked to property. You have been shown up by myself on a public forum. That is probably a little embarrassing for you - considering I have zero link to the property market at all. What sets us apart is I know what I am talking about. You on th eother hand have just sucked in everything that your bosses have been telling you. It is not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Ach, C'mon CC, you didn't state what the rules were. I sense some Fair Housing issues creeping in here, you cannot discriminate But on a serious note, I know what you are saying when it comes to agents (US or UK) being ill informed. For the most part across here there are too many agents who are about as bright as a blackout when it comes to knowing financing and legal issues that go along with a home purchase. Here in Maryland agents play a huge role in the sale or purchase of a home and I cannot believe how easy it is for someone to become licensed which would allow them to play a significant part in someones biggest financial decision in their life. But here we have part time agents who do it for a fast buck , mothers who wanna get out the house for a few hours and others who are almost unemployable elesewhere. The flip side to the coin is there are many good , informed agents who for the most part control their local markets with the rest of the idiots feeding of their closest friends and relatives. They soon get found out and leave. This tougher market has started to weed them out Same as any boom I suppose. The hard times will sort out the wheat from the chaff. Not a bad thing. If I was looking at making money in the last 10 years I probably would have got in and had a piece of the pie !! Good on these guys for taking advantage of a stupid situation to earn fortunes for doing very little. The ones that have been sensible and realised it won't last forever should be doing fine and dandy. However the ones who have been splashing the cash thinking it will go on forever ? They could be in serious trouble. Can I ask your opinion ? I get a funny feeling the chat that most people have in the UK at the moment is similar to that of the US about a year ago ? "It wont be that bad" "The economy may have a slight downturn but it will pick up again" "House prices may stagnate but they won't fall" "The economy is strong we will all be just fine" How long did it take for that to turn into a general: "Holy **** how bad is this **** going to get, just how low will it go?" Cheers in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Holy **** you just don't get it do you !! Source for figures is below . Look at the bottom of the page. This is where they state the ACTUAL DETAILS. http://www.espc.com/UniversalPages/MediaRoom.html I didn't state their FIGURES are misleading, I stated their HEADLINES are misleading , read AGAIN what I stated in a previous post: Are you just trying to back up my argument at every possible moment ?? Because you are doing a damn fine job of it !! You are someone who has stated "I know what the market's like as it's my living to know." And yet you don't even know where to get the ESPC quarterly reports..... And you thought that it is 'Business as usual' for lenders when in fact numerous mortgage lenders are cutting back on what and who they will lend to...... You are a Lawyer whose work is linked to property. You have been shown up by myself on a public forum. That is probably a little embarrassing for you - considering I have zero link to the property market at all. What sets us apart is I know what I am talking about. You on th eother hand have just sucked in everything that your bosses have been telling you. It is not too late. Clearly, the lesson here is that reading about a subject on the internet furnishes one with far more knowledge and insight that merely dealing with the subject on professional basis from day-to-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Heaney Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Same as any boom I suppose. The hard times will sort out the wheat from the chaff. Not a bad thing. If I was looking at making money in the last 10 years I probably would have got in and had a piece of the pie !! Good on these guys for taking advantage of a stupid situation to earn fortunes for doing very little. The ones that have been sensible and realised it won't last forever should be doing fine and dandy. However the ones who have been splashing the cash thinking it will go on forever ? They could be in serious trouble. Can I ask your opinion ? I get a funny feeling the chat that most people have in the UK at the moment is similar to that of the US about a year ago ? "It wont be that bad" "The economy may have a slight downturn but it will pick up again" "House prices may stagnate but they won't fall" "The economy is strong we will all be just fine" How long did it take for that to turn into a general: "Holy **** how bad is this **** going to get, just how low will it go?" Cheers in advance. I]"It wont be that bad"[/i] I think that most people realized that the high had been reached but werent quite sure what the drop would be. Its been more significant than many thought "The economy may have a slight downturn but it will pick up again" Exactly what the tought process was (or is) "House prices may stagnate but they won't fall" mmm A tough one this. I think those with their heads in the sand thought that but reality is the high was so high and the credit crunch kicked in, it was a cert prices would drop. You would not believe the amount of short sales or foreclosures we have sitting on the market. This is obviously hurting prices and any attempt at pushing them back up "The economy is strong we will all be just fine" This has probably been answered in some of the above How long did it take for that to turn into a general: Very quickly. I'd say a matter of months. A round about mid to end 2006 "Holy **** how bad is this **** going to get, just how low will it go?" A term we hear almost daily, Talk from those who "think they know" is that we may stabilize in price this year and may see a slight reversal 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Douglas Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Holy **** you just don't get it do you !! Source for figures is below . Look at the bottom of the page. This is where they state the ACTUAL DETAILS. http://www.espc.com/UniversalPages/MediaRoom.html I didn't state their FIGURES are misleading, I stated their HEADLINES are misleading , read AGAIN what I stated in a previous post: Are you just trying to back up my argument at every possible moment ?? Because you are doing a damn fine job of it !! You are someone who has stated "I know what the market's like as it's my living to know." And yet you don't even know where to get the ESPC quarterly reports..... And you thought that it is 'Business as usual' for lenders when in fact numerous mortgage lenders are cutting back on what and who they will lend to...... You are a Lawyer whose work is linked to property. You have been shown up by myself on a public forum. That is probably a little embarrassing for you - considering I have zero link to the property market at all. What sets us apart is I know what I am talking about. You on th eother hand have just sucked in everything that your bosses have been telling you. It is not too late. There's only one person you're showing up and not for the first time..... I just wish you'd try and address some of my points rather than indulging in your hilarious internet bravado. I don't really have a boss as such so you're making ill informed conclusions all over the place but that's what makes you so entertaining. Your assertion is that the headlines are misleading, I can't agree with you there, it pretty summarises the content of the article. As we are looking at the FUTURE here, rather than past figures, shouldn't we be concentrating on the next year, rather than figures for the previous year, no? After all, I'm disputing your "doomsday" internetgeek theory here. I'll put it simply, so you can digest it; the artice suggests a modest 3-5% growth and I think this will bear fruit. What are you suggesting as a forecast for the market in central Scotland/Edinburgh? We can both look at the position come the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 There's only one person you're showing up and not for the first time..... I just wish you'd try and address some of my points rather than indulging in your hilarious internet bravado. I don't really have a boss as such so you're making ill informed conclusions all over the place but that's what makes you so entertaining. Your assertion is that the headlines are misleading, I can't agree with you there, it pretty summarises the content of the article. As we are looking at the FUTURE here, rather than past figures, shouldn't we be concentrating on the next year, rather than figures for the previous year, no? After all, I'm disputing your "doomsday" internetgeek theory here. I'll put it simply, so you can digest it; the artice suggests a modest 3-5% growth and I think this will bear fruit. What are you suggesting as a forecast for the market in central Scotland/Edinburgh? We can both look at the position come the end of the year. (1) The headline states prices are rising. The details show prices have been falling for over 6 months. If you don't think that is misleading then I may as well give up now. (2) The most basic rule of any forecasting - Look at the past to tell you about the future. If you don't even know that then, again, I may as well give up now. (3) I have already stated this TWICE on this thread !! Year on year falls announced in Edinburgh in the figures released in August is what I think may happen. and if not very very close. The first time this has been announced in who knows how long ( ~ 15 years ? ) So what are your predictions. Seeing as you are at the coal face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Clearly, the lesson here is that reading about a subject on the internet furnishes one with far more knowledge and insight that merely dealing with the subject on professional basis from day-to-day. Got it in one Peebo. This thread could not be a more perfect example. I mean a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh working at the 'coal face' who doesn't know where to find the ESPC quarterly stats...... I mean a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh not even knowing that lenders are pulling back on their offerings by the day.......... And all this from a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh who "know's what the market's like as it's my living to know" You couldn't make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I]"It wont be that bad"[/i]I think that most people realized that the high had been reached but werent quite sure what the drop would be. Its been more significant than many thought "The economy may have a slight downturn but it will pick up again" Exactly what the tought process was (or is) "House prices may stagnate but they won't fall" mmm A tough one this. I think those with their heads in the sand thought that but reality is the high was so high and the credit crunch kicked in, it was a cert prices would drop. You would not believe the amount of short sales or foreclosures we have sitting on the market. This is obviously hurting prices and any attempt at pushing them back up "The economy is strong we will all be just fine" This has probably been answered in some of the above How long did it take for that to turn into a general: Very quickly. I'd say a matter of months. A round about mid to end 2006 "Holy **** how bad is this **** going to get, just how low will it go?" A term we hear almost daily, Talk from those who "think they know" is that we may stabilize in price this year and may see a slight reversal 2009 Thanks very much for that Tom Heaney. I imagine a very similar situation will appear over here. I am surprised at how quick it came around though. Although looking at the UK back in August everything was rosy according to the mainstream press and your average Joe. Now pretty much every story is about rising prices for nearly everything, and the possibility of a serious property crash. 7 months from 'It's all fine' to 'It's all going pear shaped'. At least you lot have started your pain about a year before us. You can look forward to coming out the other end a little sooner. I think when the 'people in the know' tell you it will last 2 years you can expect it to last a lot longer. Oh well !! Life goes on. I may go and live in a hut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Got it in one Peebo. This thread could not be a more perfect example. I mean a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh working at the 'coal face' who doesn't know where to find the ESPC quarterly stats...... I mean a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh not even knowing that lenders are pulling back on their offerings by the day.......... And all this from a Property finance lawyer in Edinburgh who "know's what the market's like as it's my living to know" You couldn't make it up. Amen to that. I can't believe he had the audacity to post anything on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flecktimus Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 poll req'd coppercrutch or chip douglas chip douglas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Amen to that. I can't believe he had the audacity to post anything on this thread. I enjoy having debates on here with people of different opinions. It is very interesting and gets me thinking. A good argument always does the brain cells the World of good. However, when a poster starts off with the following statement and then proceeds to tell me he is a property finance Lawyer he better know his stuff. "I have read some undiluted BS on this site over the past 10 years or so and this post is up there with the best of them." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peebo Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I enjoy having debates on here with people of different opinions. It is very interesting and gets me thinking. A good argument always does the brain cells the World of good. However, when a poster starts off with the following statement and then proceeds to tell me he is a property finance Lawyer he better know his stuff. Absolutely. While his knowledge and anecdotal experiences may actually reflect the reality of his area of expertise, they obviously stand no chance against the citing of some cherry-picked stats and quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Hey CC, I've just asked 5 in my office here and we all knew the answers, only 5 more to go and I'm 10k to the good Heh heh, I knew the answers too Tom but I dont qualify seeing as I dont fit the job description Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Heh heh, I knew the answers too Tom but I dont qualify seeing as I dont fit the job description You and Tom seem to be in the minority that have a clue. Maybe you should form some pan Atlantic property conglomorate. You would clean up. "Heaney And Mitchell - From Fife to Florida" PS. Just watching Reporting Scotland. Don't you just love how everything seems to be rising 'Five times faster than the rate of inflation'. Beggars the question - What the **** is the point of the inflation figure !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coppercrutch Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Absolutely. While his knowledge and anecdotal experiences may actually reflect the reality of his area of expertise, they obviously stand no chance against the citing of some cherry-picked stats and quotes. Replace with "may actually reflect the propaganda that is force fed to the population" and you may have a point........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 You and Tom seem to be in the minority that have a clue. Maybe you should form some pan Atlantic property conglomorate. You would clean up. "Heaney And Mitchell - From Fife to Florida" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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