Russia Invades Ukraine

[Ked]

51 minutes ago, Smithee said:

I agree, it seems unlikely that Europe will accept supply at Russia's whim. Now the cards are on the table, it'll surely be easier to cut them out and deal with more stable suppliers.

It's got little to do with punishing them for being bad.

The infrastructure is in place that would make it difficult to go elsewhere .

No way is it happening.

 

Regime change maybe  but guarenteed  it will be Russian.

What other stable suppliers in what stable region could supply European demand?

[JFK-1]

1 hour ago, Ked said:

You seriously don't think Europe will take oil or gas from Russia even if Putin is still in power?

 

Absolutely no chance will that happen.

He annexed Crimea and the 

Major 2 powers of Europe continued to not only buy oil and gas .

They sold him billions worth of weapons..

 

We will see .

 

It's irrelevant what happened before, this is an entirely different scenario on an entirely new level. The geo politics from now on will dictate Russia be sidelined until they ever become a functional nation.

And even putting that aside, who in their right mind would depend on that for critical fuel supplies? Poland and Bulgaria? There are alternative sources everyone will at this moment be organsing.

They're never going back to the supplier who will cut you off in a heartbeat.

[Footballfirst]

1 hour ago, Ked said:

You don't see the issue ?

 

Seriously .

EU countries that are still dependent on Russian oil and gas want to pay in Euros, and have been throughout this crisis.  They will continue to do so through a Swiss bank, Russian bank or other international bank.  What Russia does with the Euros they receive is up to them.  If they want to exchange them for Roubles, then that is their decision and outwith the control of the EU countries.

 

If you want Switzerland to impose sanctions on trading in Roubles, then fair enough, put pressure on the Swiss government. The Russians will find someone else to exchange their Euros into Yuan or Rupees or whatever.

 

Until EU countries no longer have a dependency on imports from Russia, little will change. 

[Ked]

5 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

It's irrelevant what happened before, this is an entirely different scenario on an entirely new level. The geo politics from now on will dictate Russia be sidelined until they ever become a functional nation.

And even putting that aside, who in their right mind would depend on that for critical fuel supplies? Poland and Bulgaria? There are alternative sources everyone will at this moment be organsing.

They're never going back to the supplier who will cut you off in a heartbeat.

Who will Europe get its gas from?

Only the US has more capacity than Russia.

After that it's China and Iran.

The infrastructure to deliver that demand isn't available.

[Ked]

5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

EU countries that are still dependent on Russian oil and gas want to pay in Euros, and have been throughout this crisis.  They will continue to do so through a Swiss bank, Russian bank or other international bank.  What Russia does with the Euros they receive is up to them.  If they want to exchange them for Roubles, then that is their decision and outwith the control of the EU countries.

 

If you want Switzerland to impose sanctions on trading in Roubles, then fair enough, put pressure on the Swiss government. The Russians will find someone else to exchange their Euros into Yuan or Rupees or whatever.

 

Until EU countries no longer have a dependency on imports from Russia, little will change. 

Sorry I meant it and read it in a different way.

[Unknown user]

22 minutes ago, Ked said:

Who will Europe get its gas from?

Only the US has more capacity than Russia.

After that it's China and Iran.

The infrastructure to deliver that demand isn't available.

I don't know what they'll do, but I know they won't allow a rogue state that level of influence forever.

[JFK-1]

The bigger picture of how to resolve this situation has world changing ramifications. People talk about Putin being boxed into a corner, and has to be offered an off ramp. I think we, the West, NATO, are now also boxed into a corner with no easy viable off ramp.

It's become a situation where one way or another this shit has to be stopped preferably while inflicting massive damage on the Russian military. Latest UK intelligence reports state that Russia has lost 15,000 dead since it started. And that number is likely to increase as the Ukrainians become ever better armed.

We have to crush this guy because if we don't it sends out a very dangerous message.  It tells the likes of the mini Putin in North Korea or the authoritarian Chinese that you only have to make mention of nukes in some manner and they will back off. Then you do what you want.

And that troubles me greatly. We're looking at a situation where there appears to be no viable off ramp for either party. Putin can't be humiliated, we can't let him win. It's precarious.

[OBE]

Puntin & his military are making a constant  ***ts of themselves, time for Russia to Join NATO/Europe...sorted...🤪

[Don Dan]

https://apple.news/AtKgVTlsrT1WCbjYiImTCrA
 

Around 8,000 British troops to take part in biggest deployment in eastern Europe since Cold War

Dozens of tanks will also deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia

[Boab]

6 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

The bigger picture of how to resolve this situation has world changing ramifications. People talk about Putin being boxed into a corner, and has to be offered an off ramp. I think we, the West, NATO, are now also boxed into a corner with no easy viable off ramp.

It's become a situation where one way or another this shit has to be stopped preferably while inflicting massive damage on the Russian military. Latest UK intelligence reports state that Russia has lost 15,000 dead since it started. And that number is likely to increase as the Ukrainians become ever better armed.

We have to crush this guy because if we don't it sends out a very dangerous message.  It tells the likes of the mini Putin in North Korea or the authoritarian Chinese that you only have to make mention of nukes in some manner and they will back off. Then you do what you want.

And that troubles me greatly. We're looking at a situation where there appears to be no viable off ramp for either party. Putin can't be humiliated, we can't let him win. It's precarious.

With respect, your second last paragraph kinda contradicts the last paragraph. If he can't be humiliated, we can't crush him surely. It is precarious but how  far will it go to get to a position where they will back off ?

The cards are on the table on both sides and it's scary.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

8 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Until EU countries no longer have a dependency on imports from Russia, little will change. 

 

And that hits the nail on the head.  I would hope that things will change from now onwards and it really should after what Russia has done, however actions will speak louder than words, so we'll just have to wait and see if the EU really means to stop importing Russian oil & gas.

Great if they do, but I'll reserve judgement until it actually happens.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

6 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

We have to crush this guy because if we don't it sends out a very dangerous message.  It tells the likes of the mini Putin in North Korea or the authoritarian Chinese that you only have to make mention of nukes in some manner and they will back off. Then you do what you want.

 

 

Which he mentioned again, yesterday, he must not have gotten the response he wanted the first time around, so repeated the threat.

[Pap]

5 hours ago, OBE said:

Puntin & his military are making a constant  ***ts of themselves, time for Russia to Join NATO/Europe...sorted...🤪

 

Russia have expresses joining Nato a few times.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

5 hours ago, OBE said:

Puntin & his military are making a constant  ***ts of themselves, time for Russia to Join NATO/Europe...sorted...🤪

 

Just wait until Russia's best pal China starts to sniff around Russian territory, the Russian's will be begging to join NATO.

[OBE]

29 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

Russia have expresses joining Nato a few times.

 

Imagine the current carnage that would stop, central heating on when it drops below 20, heat the hoose again no the person, Champions league finals in St Petersburg, Moscow mules. what's not to like? 

[OBE]

28 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Just wait until Russia's best pal China starts to sniff around Russian territory, the Russian's will be begging to join NATO.

 

Sooner the better!

[OBE]

35 minutes ago, Pap said:

 

Russia have expresses joining Nato a few times.

 

Knocked back? Imagine BIG military contract money being spent on health and education... mibi see less Weebles Wobblin away fi the chippy.... NHS has it's own war on this one...on another thread, aye Ok!...

[redjambo]

Belarus and Russia looking at idea of forming new "Union State" and attracting other ex-Soviet nations to join.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-belarus-union-state-former-soviet-nations-1701935

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

Belarus and Russia looking at idea of forming new "Union State" and attracting other ex-Soviet nations to join.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-belarus-union-state-former-soviet-nations-1701935

The equivalent of the UEFA Conference League. Russia are a joke, militarily and politically 

[milky_26]

3 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

The equivalent of the UEFA Conference League. Russia are a joke, militarily and politically 

Not even that more like the intertoto cup

[Sawdust Caesar]

Well, at least he is consistent.

 

[Mikey1874]

The nuclear threats are a certain degree of macho hubris perhaps.

 

But I think the main purpose is to alarm Western populations to pressure inaction by Governments. 

 

So Russia can do what it wants which it has pretty much done last 25 years. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Mikey1874

[Nucky Thompson]

Russian state TV threatening that they could take the UK out with one missile.

Because we're just an island it won't cause lasting damage to the continent 

It looks like we've pissed them right off.

 

Thank God we have Trident 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

The nuclear threats are a certain degree of macho hubris perhaps.

 

But I think the main purpose is to alarm Western populations to pressure inaction by Governments. 

 

So Russia can do what it wants which it has pretty much done last 25 years. 

Just like the West have done too 

[OBE]

22 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Russian state TV threatening that they could take the UK out with one missile.

Because we're just an island it won't cause lasting damage to the continent 

It looks like we've pissed them right off.

 

Thank God we have Trident 

 

 

 

Which one?

[Nucky Thompson]

11 minutes ago, OBE said:

 

 

Which one?

All of them 

[Cade]

There's been way over 2,000 nukes set off since 1945.

 

2 of them in anger, the rest have just been willy waving.

 

 

[JFK-1]

15 hours ago, Boab said:

With respect, your second last paragraph kinda contradicts the last paragraph. If he can't be humiliated, we can't crush him surely. It is precarious but how  far will it go to get to a position where they will back off ?

The cards are on the table on both sides and it's scary.

 

 

The contradiction is the precarious part. How do we navigate this. Everything has changed from the start, we now know there has been mass slaughter of civilians. Potentially tens of thousands to this point. He can't be humiliated, we can't let this fly.

 

I see no easy way out of it now. Though i'm no diplomat, presumably those who are have some sort of ideas. My only idea is somebody in Russia has to take out Putin then maybe we could negotiate something.

[Norm]

5 hours ago, Cade said:

There's been way over 2,000 nukes set off since 1945.

 

2 of them in anger, the rest have just been willy waving.

 

 

I mean, none of these should have been used but the Brits and Chinese come out of that looking not too bad. We tested a bunch when the technology was new and we needed to know how well it worked, but it at least was a case of "OK, we have these massive ****ing bombs, job done." and kind of left it at that. 

 

The Yanks, Ruskies and the French just seem to like big explosions with the amount of testing they undertook. I mean, why the **** were the Frogs still testing in 96? Surely they knew "Yup, our nukes work" waaaaaay before then. ****ing mental. 

[ri Alban]

11 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

*Russian state TV threatening that they could take the UK out with one missile.

Because we're just an island it won't cause lasting damage to the continent 

It looks like we've pissed them right off.

 

**Thank God we have Trident 

 

 

*   

 

 

**Terrified

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Right on cue, wee Kim has now warned that North Korea would use a preemptive nuclear strike, if.......

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/30/North-Korea-leader-warns-of-preemptive-use-of-nuclear-force-State-media

 

[Cade]

Putin pondering declaring all out war on Ukraine as part of the 9th May Russian Victory Day celebrations.

 

[highlandjambo3]

17 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Russian state TV threatening that they could take the UK out with one missile.

Because we're just an island it won't cause lasting damage to the continent 

It looks like we've pissed them right off.

 

Thank God we have Trident 

 

Surly they’re aware of a sneaky wee submarine of ours that can’t be found, which is likely to be close by, which has the capability to actually his any part or all of Russia before their bad boy gets anywhere near the UK…….

[The Real Maroonblood]

17 hours ago, OBE said:

 

 

Which one?

Doesn’t matter as they’re all imaginary.

[Don Dan]

22 hours ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Well, at least he is consistent.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10769957/Russian-propaganda-declares-nuclear-missile-strike-London-no-survivors.html

[Sawdust Caesar]

On 29/04/2022 at 16:17, jonesy said:

 

I'm starting to doubt they even have any nukes.

I'm more wondering if they work properly. I read the other day that the USA has spent 80 billion dollars on maintenance on their nuclear arsenal, over what time frame I don't know. With all the corruption going on in the Russian military where funds meant for military upgrades etc have been syphoned off so someone can buy a superyacht or a villa in Italy will that also apply to the upkeep of their nuclear bombs? Maybe some high ranking official somewhere thought 'I don't need to replace all those out of date ration packs as the chances of going to war are slim so they wont be needed' then it's possible someone in charge of the nuclear weapons thought something similar.

[Cade]

[Herbert.]

If Russia were to launch a missle attack against us do we have the capability to defend against it?

[redjambo]

The Ukrainians are making inroads into recovering Kharkiv Oblast. In this war of attrition, it's only a matter of time until Ukraine prevails as they obtain more weaponry and vehicles while Russia runs out of theirs. It's almost guaranteed that Russia will go for full mobilisation in the hope that sheer numbers of boots on the ground may win the day. The huge question is: when Russia sees that they can't win this, how can they (and we) manufacture an exit strategy that allows them to save face. That's the most difficult thing, because we have to prevent them from being cornered into doing anything mega-stupid.

[Ked]

7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The Ukrainians are making inroads into recovering Kharkiv Oblast. In this war of attrition, it's only a matter of time until Ukraine prevails as they obtain more weaponry and vehicles while Russia runs out of theirs. It's almost guaranteed that Russia will go for full mobilisation in the hope that sheer numbers of boots on the ground may win the day. The huge question is: when Russia sees that they can't win this, how can they (and we) manufacture an exit strategy that allows them to save face. That's the most difficult thing, because we have to prevent them from being cornered into doing anything mega-stupid.

Tough one .

The exit strategy .

Ukraine have already lost Crimea so how could we accommodate a face saving strategy for Russia that Ukraine would accept.

It really needs Putin out the picture and some reform of Russian politics.

That I think has to happen internally.

KGB runs pretty deep .

So I'd imagine it would be someone from within those circles.

 

[Ulysses]

3 hours ago, Ked said:

Tough one .

The exit strategy .

Ukraine have already lost Crimea so how could we accommodate a face saving strategy for Russia that Ukraine would accept.

It really needs Putin out the picture and some reform of Russian politics.

That I think has to happen internally.

KGB runs pretty deep .

So I'd imagine it would be someone from within those circles.

 

 

Long game, Ked.  America and Europe pump money into Ukraine so it can bog the Russians down in Donetsk and Luhansk for 10-15 years.  That way, whatever trouble the Russians cause for Ukraine, their military forces will be too tied up to cause trouble for the Eastern NATO members.  Eventually, the political tide turns (as it always does), and a settlement is reached.

[Cade]

8 days until Russia's Victory Day.

 

We'll see what Putain comes out with on that day. If he fully mobilizes the entirety of Russia's armed forces in an all-out war, then everybody sending Ukraine a few mothballed tanks and a bit of cash won't be anywhere near enough.

 

[Ked]

9 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Long game, Ked.  America and Europe pump money into Ukraine so it can bog the Russians down in Donetsk and Luhansk for 10-15 years.  That way, whatever trouble the Russians cause for Ukraine, their military forces will be too tied up to cause trouble for the Eastern NATO members.  Eventually, the political tide turns (as it always does), and a settlement is reached.

10 -15 years.

Sore one for Ukraine.

I'd have hoped something sooner from within .

It's hard to tell how strong Putins grip is though .

 

[Mikey1874]

14 hours ago, Ked said:

Tough one .

The exit strategy .

Ukraine have already lost Crimea so how could we accommodate a face saving strategy for Russia that Ukraine would accept.

It really needs Putin out the picture and some reform of Russian politics.

That I think has to happen internally.

KGB runs pretty deep .

So I'd imagine it would be someone from within those circles.

 

 

Crimea is occupied not lost. 

 

It is true there is some degree of willingness, not just by you to meet Russian demands. 

 

But Crimea is still vulnerable to attack. Putin may regret not agreeing to Ukrainian suggestion to give independence to Crimea and occupied Dombass. 

[coconut doug]

19 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Crimea is occupied not lost. 

 

It is true there is some degree of willingness, not just by you to meet Russian demands. 

 

But Crimea is still vulnerable to attack. Putin may regret not agreeing to Ukrainian suggestion to give independence to Crimea and occupied Dombass. 

 

When did Ukraine suggest independence for these places?

 

Putin has recognised two of them as independent. Crimea is now part of Russia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/russia-to-recognise-ukraine-breakaway-region-kremlin-confirms  An attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia,attacking it might turn a special military operation into a full scale war. What would be the point in making Crimea independent anyway they have already expressed a clear wish to be a part of Russia. 

[Mikey1874]

15 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

When did Ukraine suggest independence for these places?

 

Putin has recognised two of them as independent. Crimea is now part of Russia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/russia-to-recognise-ukraine-breakaway-region-kremlin-confirms  An attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia,attacking it might turn a special military operation into a full scale war. What would be the point in making Crimea independent anyway they have already expressed a clear wish to be a part of Russia. 

 

In early negotiations. Zelensky said it. 

 

Of course we all think Russia has the capability to destroy Ukraine. The story is the Russian military are raging at Putin for basically limiting what they do. 

 

But Ukraine defeated Russia in the battle for Kiev and if it defeats Russia in the battle for Dombass then the obvious next step is Crimea. 

[Jeffros Furios]

41 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

When did Ukraine suggest independence for these places?

 

Putin has recognised two of them as independent. Crimea is now part of Russia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/russia-to-recognise-ukraine-breakaway-region-kremlin-confirms  An attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia,attacking it might turn a special military operation into a full scale war. What would be the point in making Crimea independent anyway they have already expressed a clear wish to be a part of Russia. 

BOT 

[coconut doug]

26 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

In early negotiations. Zelensky said it. 

 

Of course we all think Russia has the capability to destroy Ukraine. The story is the Russian military are raging at Putin for basically limiting what they do. 

 

But Ukraine defeated Russia in the battle for Kiev and if it defeats Russia in the battle for Dombass then the obvious next step is Crimea. 

 

No he didn't make a "suggestion to give independence to Crimea and occupied Dombass."  What he said was that "it should be considered" There is a world of difference between making a suggestion that we do something and making a suggestion that we consider doing something.

 Maybe Zelensky was sincere but i doubt it. Recognising the autonomy of these regions was agreed in the Minsk agreement  and guaranteed by western countries but they did not implement it. Had they done so there would be no war. Zelensky was most likely playing for time. This was at the time there seemed to be some hope with peace negotiations then of course the Ukrainians killed their negotiator and they revertred to thier blood and soil stance of not ceding anything. https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-vows-no-surrender-of-territory-as-russia-shifts-aim-to-capturing-donbas/

It's not credible to suggest that in the space of a few days Zelensky has gone from being willing to recognise breakaway republics to refusing to cede any territory at all. He is being controlled by the West who like him are quite happy to witness the loss of thousands of lives and despair for millions of others. 

  Imagine if you lived like this for 8 years 

 

What would you want the Russians to do ?

 

[Mikey1874]

Russia needs to leave Ukraine completely and then find and put everyone who has committed crimes on trial. 

 

And compensate the families of everyone who died and pay to rebuild Ukraine. 

 

Putin can stay in power then. 

[redjambo]

3 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

When did Ukraine suggest independence for these places?

 

Putin has recognised two of them as independent. Crimea is now part of Russia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/russia-to-recognise-ukraine-breakaway-region-kremlin-confirms  An attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia,attacking it might turn a special military operation into a full scale war. What would be the point in making Crimea independent anyway they have already expressed a clear wish to be a part of Russia. 

 

Only a handful of countries accept that Crimea is part of Russia. As far as the rest are concerned, it is illegally occupied.

 

The mechanism and results of the 2014 Referendum have also been rejected by most countries.

 

You are a one.