2021 Scottish Parliament Election (Thursday 6th May 2021)

[frankblack]

14 minutes ago, pablo said:

Nearly 1.2 million pro UK votes for losing candidates in the Constituency vote. With proper collaboration, there's potential there.

 

The issue is the lack of collaboration for the tories and labour to step aside in seats where the other is best placed to challenge the SNP.

 

Sarwar would rather continue being a loser and gripe on the sidelines.

[JamboGraham]

9 minutes ago, BudgeUp said:

I'd say that all SNP and Green voters are open to the possibility of independence. 

 

Opposition to independence would likely mean you voting for another party.

 

The green vote is an interesting issue in Scotland.

 

I am sure it would be fair to assume that for some green voters their commitment to the environment is greater than their focus on constitutional debate and they are prepared to consider each issue separately, or when it is actually asked as a question on a ballot.

 

Even if that turns out to be a relatively small number it matters when many are directly correlating 49.9 or 50.1 as significant in terms of this specific election result.

 

It’s also possible (perhaps even likely) that across the millions of crosses marked in this election that some will have chosen to vote for a candidate based on local record, personal  experiences, etc. rather than as a viewpoint on a referendum or even who you wish to govern under the status quo.

 

Again, we are not likely to be talking large numbers but if we really going to look for clear indicators from 0.1 odd percent either way then we must surely consider the possibility that not every voter saw this election as a constitutional question or that they were prepared to suspend the constitutional question until it is actually put on a ballot paper?

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

14 minutes ago, jamboy1982 said:

Yes. That’s how the words more and less work. 

 

You're easily amazed it would appear. 

[Roxy Hearts]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

I don't think you can take the voting on the election as an indicator as to how another referendum would go.  From memory, Yes were far further ahead back in 2014.  The numbers you present don't necessarily indicate if people would vote for independence, or just couldn't vote for any of the other parties to run Hollyrood.

 

This election needs to be looked at more as to how disunited the opposition parties are, which utterly sunk the unionist side in terms of tactical voting.

 

The Scottish Tories were a shambles from when Davidson quit, and an embarassment during the campaign where they had to bring her back to effectively lead their election campaign as Ross was clearly a weak and unconvincing leader.

 

Scottish Labour with Anas Sarwar were even worse.  Firstly he decides to stand against Sturgeon in her constituency rather than pick a seat that had a narrow SNP majority - I mean how thick do you have to be to throw away a seat like that.  Then there is the point I made a while back that he set the Scottish Labour campaign out as if it were the 1990s, targeting the Scottish Tories as his opposition rather than go for the SNP.  If I were a Scottish Labour member I'd be looking to get him replaced as leaded ASAP.

 

I don't think Boris is going to give in to calls during this WM parliament on an independence referendum, so we will have to wait and see what happens.  I'd expect any legal action to force a referendum through would fail if it becomes a challenge on the UK constitution, as I'd expect the courts to stand by the constitution.

Good post.

[jambos are go!]

Let's have a Referendum ASAP. Thats the best chance we unionists have to get on the front foot and  crush the independence movement.

[The Real Maroonblood]

Just now, jambos are go! said:

Let's have a Referendum ASAP. Thats the best chance we unionists have to get on the front foot and  crush the independence movement.

Is that the royal we?

[Norm]

2 minutes ago, Horatio Caine said:

Well they'd be wrong to do so.  However, folk voting for the SNP and Green parties probably believe we should be given the right to choose.   A lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges before independence even comes close.

Agreed. Don't get me wrong, Brexit has sealed my Yes vote so no going back for me, but if that wasn't the case, I could be easily swayed by either side. 

 

I know a few No voters who voted SNP this time, purely based on Brexit. They're not convinced Indy Scotland is a goer but they want the discussion again. 

[gjcc]

Happy to discuss it when polling is at 30%. But not when it’s on or near 50%
Absolutely bricking it. 

[XB52]

I can make a pretty good educated guess that there is a larger percentage of labour voters who support independence than snp voters who don't. 

[jamboy1982]

15 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

You're easily amazed it would appear. 

Amazed at your inability to understand the meaning of the word more 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, jamboy1982 said:

Amazed at your inability to understand the meaning of the word more 

 

1 more seat is hardly an incredible result. 

[Gizmo]

35 minutes ago, gjcc said:

Yes Congratulations on their slight reduction in %. 👍🏻 
Good chap their leader. 

 

A grotesque piece of work is Ross, imagine voting for that.  

[WorldChampions1902]

1 hour ago, Boris said:

I think Johnson is in quite a tricky situation. His calls for increased cooperation between the UK govt and the devolved govts may ring hollow, but effectively the UK is deeply fragmented. Scotland,obviously, Wales returning Labour pretty emphatically, and Northern Ireland at a crossroads, with both main Unionist parties there searching for new leadership.

Meanwhile in England, Brexit still the key identifier for leave voters.

So Johnson quite comfortable, but now more evident that UK policy is English policy, so how does he avoid further alienating the other three "equal" nations?

Do nothing and it plays into the hands of his opposition. Do something and alienate his new supporters in England? Brexit ramifications still to fully crystallise too.

Interesting times, as they say.

You make some good points IMHO.

 

Now that Scotland has reaffirmed its intention to pursue IndyRef2, all of a sudden, Boris wants a “Summit” with the devolved government’s. This, despite cutting Scotland and Wales out of decisions on Brexit and the wider COVID situation. This hypocrisy is breathtaking.

 

Brexit is the elephant in the room. IF the “sunny uplands and unicorns” materialise before we implement the second Independence referendum, that has the potential to win over many who were against Brexit and sway previously pro-independence voters to opt for remaining as part of the U.K. Unfortunately for the Eton Mess,  all the early indications are that Brexit is going to be the disaster predicted by so many experts, which would entrench the voting intentions of pro-independence voters PLUS win over many of those the were formerly pro-Union. 
 

Given what we have seen with Brexit so far, the latter is not just the likeliest outcome, it’s an absolute certainty.

Edited May 9, 2021 by WorldChampions1902

[Gizmo]

42 minutes ago, Smithee said:

As the dust starts to settle I can't help wondering about the longer term political landscape in Scotland.

 

From the eyes of many Labour sold their souls when they stood next to the tories in the independence referendum, and now we've seen them openly trading votes to keep the SNP out. 

 

Labour are in their death throes and there are still many of their supporters who couldn't possibly bring themselves to vote tory.

 

There has to be another player in Scotland soon, tories and SNP don't cover everyone and the alternatives are laughable at the moment. Will we see an independent scottish labour party? Will there be a new party? Will it be Alba that pick up support?

Don't see Alba doing much, I expected a bit more from them tbh.

Lib dems aren't even considered a major party now. Labour's fate might become clearer once the fall-out from their disastrous performance in England is cleaned away. Perhaps the Greens could grow during this term and court some of the Labour vote? 

 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Gizmo said:

Don't see Alba doing much, I expected a bit more from them tbh.

Lib dems aren't even considered a major party now. Labour's fate might become clearer once the fall-out from their disastrous performance in England is cleaned away. Perhaps the Greens could grow during this term and court some of the Labour vote? 

 

 

I'm not so sure about Alba, I think independence supporters will start to realise the strength of having a second pro independence party standing for list only - if they'd got even a third of the SNP's list vote things would be looking very different this morning.

 

I don't see the Greens gettting big, they're probably seen as too idealistic and hippydippy for most. I do think the most likely is scottish labour breaking off and trying to get some credibility that way and/or another party stepping up from the ashes of the dying parties in Scotland

[Byyy The Light]

I’m ashamed to say that for the the first time since I have been eligible I didn’t vote.

 

Scunnered with the whole thing and don’t feel like any party represents me or my thinking. Whole thing seems like a race to the bottom. 

[Pasquale for King]

4 hours ago, Sarah O said:

Good grief.

 

Trotting out "homophobe" or "transphobe" because someone dares to disagree is pathetic. 

 

My fear is that it's going to take something brutal to happen to some poor soul or souls for people to wake up and smell the coffee.

 

Women need safe spaces. Simple as that.

I’ve seen the tweets, it’s not disagreeing it’s homophobic and transphobia it’s simple as that. 
You feel safe voting for a Salmond lead party, would you be ok working late with the sleepy cuddler? A party supported by Arthur, Sheridan, Campbell and his StuAnon cultists? 
How many trans men have ever attacked women?
Women do need safe spaces, they currently don’t have any and allowing access to people who see themselves as women won’t change that. 
Men attack women, that’s the problem that needs to sorted and this bill has nothing to do with that. 

[Ainsley Harriott]

2 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

You’re quite correct. 
 

 

I'm fairly certain we did decide our own future?

[jamboy1982]

19 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

1 more seat is hardly an incredible result. 

It actually is when you consider the strong position that they previously held. Considering the unionist media that fills our TVs and papers with snp hate and pro unionist reporting it is a remarkable result. Considering the frankly disgusting tactical voting by ‘labour’ supporters it is. Considering the set up of the pr electoral system then it is. Considering the Alex salmond debacle and they biased reporting of it and the behaviour of the Scottish tories then it is.

[BudgeUp]

5 minutes ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

I'm fairly certain we did decide our own future?

We did. Based on the circumstances at that point in time.

 

Circumstances change.

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, Boris said:

I think Johnson is in quite a tricky situation. His calls for increased cooperation between the UK govt and the devolved govts may ring hollow, but effectively the UK is deeply fragmented. Scotland,obviously, Wales returning Labour pretty emphatically, and Northern Ireland at a crossroads, with both main Unionist parties there searching for new leadership.

Meanwhile in England, Brexit still the key identifier for leave voters.

So Johnson quite comfortable, but now more evident that UK policy is English policy, so how does he avoid further alienating the other three "equal" nations?

Do nothing and it plays into the hands of his opposition. Do something and alienate his new supporters in England? Brexit ramifications still to fully crystallise too.

Interesting times, as they say.

I don’t think his new supporters are that bothered if he cuts the other three loose, they wanted their country back so let them have it, nobody else wants it. He may even need to let us go to keep his new voters as Brexit hits the recovery and they will need someone to blame. 

[skinnybob72]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

You're correct 30% didn't vote on Thursday. One thing the SNP followers do is get out and vote for their party so it might be fair to think the bigger % of non-voters on Thursday would vote to stay in the union. 

Turnout was 63% - it was 85% in the last referendum. 
 

My feeling is that large numbers of non SNP voters likely didn’t bother in the SP elections because they knew that SNP would win overall. However, these people will almost certainly vote in any future IndyRef2. 
 

SNP voters may be more likely to vote in other elections because they want something and if you desire something badly you will tend to put in more effort than someone happy with the status quo. 
 

just my tuppenceworth, no hard facts behind it. 

[Boris]

2 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

I don’t think his new supporters are that bothered if he cuts the other three loose, they wanted their country back so let them have it, nobody else wants it. He may even need to let us go to keep his new voters as Brexit hits the recovery and they will need someone to blame. 

Completely undermining the Scottish Tories at the same time. Love it!

For all the unionist ire at the SNP, simple fact is that apart from the issue of  independence, neither the Tories or Labour offer any credible alternative for government at Holyrood.

 

[frankblack]

16 minutes ago, BudgeUp said:

We did. Based on the circumstances at that point in time.

 

Circumstances change.

 

That argument works both ways, so we could vote to rejoin the UK too when the masses see the shitshow unfolding with the reality of independence.

[indianajones]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

More incredible than the 63 they had last Sunday? 

 

63 is incredible. 

 

64 is incredible. 

 

Not sure what your question is. 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

That argument works both ways, so we could vote to rejoin the UK too when the masses see the shitshow unfolding with the reality of independence.

Well yeah, obviously, that's democracy.

[ManorJambo]

5 hours ago, theAlvasection said:

If the way you decide which political party you vote for is a result of the football team you support then I'm afraid you are a moron.

 

 

What a load of rubbish. 

[John Findlay]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

That's a myth. Labour put the kibosh on that early on. Now I dare say some individuals voted tactically but there was no alliance by the unionist parties to do so. 

Cobblers.

[ri Alban]

3 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Just looked at BBCs voting figures.

 

If you add up all the votes you get 5419418 of that SNP, Green and ALBA make up 2685805.

 

Which works out at 49.55% Pro Indy.

 

Where were your figures from?

Sky 50.14%

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I'm not much of a fan of Ross but he still managed to keep them as the main opposition with the same number of seats so not quite the shambles you indicate. 

True 

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

That is the point I made earlier.  We don't know, but my gut feel is that when push comes to shove and the facts get presented about joining the EU (hard border, currency, etc), national debt share, deficit, etc that many will choose the status quo.

 

The nationalists have been slaughtered on TV whenever these questions are put to them on interviews, but that largely got overlooked for this election due to the pandemic.  If we get a referendum then these questions will be the main topics.

Agreed 

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

As the dust starts to settle I can't help wondering about the longer term political landscape in Scotland.

 

From the eyes of many Labour sold their souls when they stood next to the tories in the independence referendum, and now we've seen them openly trading votes to keep the SNP out. 

 

Labour are in their death throes and there are still many of their supporters who couldn't possibly bring themselves to vote tory.

 

There has to be another player in Scotland soon, tories and SNP don't cover everyone and the alternatives are laughable at the moment. Will we see an independent scottish labour party? Will there be a new party? Will it be Alba that pick up support?

I know a few die hard Labour voters who through gritted teeth tactically voted Tory , even my friend who is a former Edinburgh councillor . I couldn’t voted Labour tactically and for personal reasons

1 hour ago, jambos are go! said:

Let's have a Referendum ASAP. Thats the best chance we unionists have to get on the front foot and  crush the independence movement.

Agreed  let’s get it out of the way whichever way it goes. This is coming from me who campaigned and went on Indy marches in 2014 and more recently in 2019 . Even wore my kilt ! And my female friend wore her tartan mini skirt ! Probably looked more like Fran and Anna when I think of it now 😂 my passion for it had fizzled out . I’d need a lot of convincing to vote yes again . This time I will look more closely at the issues instead of looking at it through tartan tinted glasses and just ignoring some of the fundemental arguments about it . I was one of those “‘independence at all costs “ types 

[ri Alban]

2 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

I don't think you can take the voting on the election as an indicator as to how another referendum would go.  From memory, Yes were far further ahead back in 2014.  The numbers you present don't necessarily indicate if people would vote for independence, or just couldn't vote for any of the other parties to run Hollyrood.

 

This election needs to be looked at more as to how disunited the opposition parties are, which utterly sunk the unionist side in terms of tactical voting.

 

The Scottish Tories were a shambles from when Davidson quit, and an embarassment during the campaign where they had to bring her back to effectively lead their election campaign as Ross was clearly a weak and unconvincing leader.

 

Scottish Labour with Anas Sarwar were even worse.  Firstly he decides to stand against Sturgeon in her constituency rather than pick a seat that had a narrow SNP majority - I mean how thick do you have to be to throw away a seat like that.  Then there is the point I made a while back that he set the Scottish Labour campaign out as if it were the 1990s, targeting the Scottish Tories as his opposition rather than go for the SNP.  If I were a Scottish Labour member I'd be looking to get him replaced as leaded ASAP.

 

I don't think Boris is going to give in to calls during this WM parliament on an independence referendum, so we will have to wait and see what happens.  I'd expect any legal action to force a referendum through would fail if it becomes a challenge on the UK constitution, as I'd expect the courts to stand by the constitution.

Neither do I. Just defending both posts from the Onionists in swinging corners.

Edited May 9, 2021 by ri Alban

[Pasquale for King]

17 minutes ago, Boris said:

Completely undermining the Scottish Tories at the same time. Love it!

For all the unionist ire at the SNP, simple fact is that apart from the issue of  independence, neither the Tories or Labour offer any credible alternative for government at Holyrood.

 

Absolutely. It’s been SNP bad for years and you think they might realise it doesn’t really work. 
I think they will need to rebrand or revamp their party’s after Independence. 

[Pasquale for King]

2 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Neither do I. Just defending both posts from the Onionists in swinging corners.

Onionists 😆😂👍🏽👏🏾, not sure they have many layers though 🤔🤷🏾‍♂️🤪. 

[Francis Albert]

In all the analysis why is no consideration given to the possibility that some of the SNP votes were an acknowlegement of the great job the SNP has done in running Scotland?

 

And why are all Green votes and Lib Dem for that matter lumped into the indy camp. 

 

It was after all not a referendum on independence but an election to the Scottish Parliament.

 

Anyway after the last referendum the SNP sensibly said they would want polls running at 60% pro-Indy for two years before they had another go. 

[redjambo]

13 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

But anyway

 

And the Lib Dems don't even get to sit together.

[Pasquale for King]

19 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

That argument works both ways, so we could vote to rejoin the UK too when the masses see the shitshow unfolding with the reality of independence.

You would need to be “allowed” to have another referendum, it might not be the right time to do this I’m afraid. 
You see how undemocratic that is? Scotland’s people will decide when it wants referendums on issues and politicians who are elected to do as we ask should adhere to our wishes. 

[frankblack]

Just now, Pasquale for King said:

You would need to be “allowed” to have another referendum, it might not be the right time to do this I’m afraid. 
You see how undemocratic that is? Scotland’s people will decide when it wants referendums on issues and politicians who are elected to do as we ask should adhere to our wishes. 

 

That is what you think.

[The Real Maroonblood]

23 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

That argument works both ways, so we could vote to rejoin the UK too when the masses see the shitshow unfolding with the reality of independence.

That’s what you think.

[Pasquale for King]

4 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

In all the analysis why is no consideration given to the possibility that some of the SNP votes were an acknowlegement of the great job the SNP has done in running Scotland?

 

And why are all Green votes and Lib Dem for that matter lumped into the indy camp. 

 

It was after all not a referendum on independence but an election to the Scottish Parliament.

 

Anyway after the last referendum the SNP sensibly said they would want polls running at 60% pro-Indy for two years before they had another go. 

Lib Dem’s in Indy camp 😆. 
We can’t know how many folk who vote for any party support Independence or the Union, we can only assume they vote a certain way because the party support it. There are no doubt folk who disagree with the party on the constitutional question. 

[Pasquale for King]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

That is what you think.

Well yes that’s why I said it? What part of it is untrue?

[frankblack]

Just now, The Real Maroonblood said:

That’s what you think.

 

We will see how long they can continue to brush off their lack of substance on their policies for the key independence issues when the Indy Ref becomes the key issue.

 

There is only so many kickings they will be able to take.

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Pasquale for King said:

Well yes that’s why I said it? What part of it is untrue?

 

I don't believe they even have a hope in hell  of winning an Indy Vote in the next five years, assuming Boris decides to relent and allow them one (which isn't going to happen).

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

 

 "Settled for" now is it?

 

 

Yeah that's exactly the same as getting the result you wanted!

 

I'm sure you'll enjoy the next half decade of the parliament you wanted.

 

"Would have settled for". The use of the conditional perfect tense confirms that I am happy with the outcome.  I hope that reassures you as, clearly, it seems to concern you. 

On a day to day basis, a Scottish Parliament,  stuffed full of nonentities,  all trying to "out-woke" each other, discussing issues that most of us aren't interested in, "taking the knee", trans rights, free contact lenses for your dug, really doesn't concern me in the slightest.  As Britain roars ahead with record growth this year, I will be happy if the inward looking, parochial,  navel gazing is all contained within the Holyrood bubble

[The Real Maroonblood]

Just now, frankblack said:

 

I don't believe they even have a hope in hell  of winning an Indy Vote in the next five years, assuming Boris decides to relent and allow them one (which isn't going to happen).

You might be right but we don’t know.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

"Would have settled for". The use of the conditional perfect tense confirms that I am happy with the outcome.  I hope that reassures you as, clearly, it seems to concern you. 

On a day to day basis, a Scottish Parliament,  stuffed full of nonentities,  all trying to "out-woke" each other, discussing issues that most of us aren't interested in, "taking the knee", trans rights, free contact lenses for your dug, really doesn't concern me in the slightest.  As Britain roars ahead with record growth this year, I will be happy if the inward looking, parochial,  navel gazing is all contained within the Holyrood bubble

 

You do realise Enzo that the "record growth" is only due to the contraction that Brexit and the pandemic caused to the economy? It's like losing 4-0 in a game and then scoring 2 goals within 2 minutes and thinking "We're doing great now!".

 

By the way, where do I get those free contact lenses for my dog? I hadn't heard about them and my dog's getting a bit short sighted these days. If it were anyone but you who wrote that, I would have said that they were dramatically over-exaggerating and making things up for effect.

[Shanks said no]

May I pose a hypothetical question?

 

Nicola = We want a referendum

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = See you in court

Supreme Court = NO needs Bo Jo to ok

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = ???

 

Question was posed early this morning and expert replied "lets not go there". But where does that actually leave Nicola and the SNP? What can they do, what would be their options?

 

UDI?

 

 

[Unknown user]

10 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

"Would have settled for". The use of the conditional perfect tense confirms that I am happy with the outcome.  I hope that reassures you as, clearly, it seems to concern you. 

On a day to day basis, a Scottish Parliament,  stuffed full of nonentities,  all trying to "out-woke" each other, discussing issues that most of us aren't interested in, "taking the knee", trans rights, free contact lenses for your dug, really doesn't concern me in the slightest.  As Britain roars ahead with record growth this year, I will be happy if the inward looking, parochial,  navel gazing is all contained within the Holyrood bubble

 

So not the result you wanted then

[Unknown user]

5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

You do realise Enzo that the "record growth" is only due to the contraction that Brexit and the pandemic caused to the economy? It's like losing 4-0 in a game and then scoring 2 goals within 2 minutes and thinking "We're doing great now!".

 

By the way, where do I get those free contact lenses for my dog? I hadn't heard about them and my dog's getting a bit short sighted these days. If it were anyone but you who wrote that, I would have said that they were dramatically over-exaggerating and making things up for effect.

 

More to the point, how do they do the eye test? 

Bark once if you can read this

[Cade]

7 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

May I pose a hypothetical question?

 

Nicola = We want a referendum

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = See you in court

Supreme Court = NO needs Bo Jo to ok

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = ???

 

Question was posed early this morning and expert replied "lets not go there". But where does that actually leave Nicola and the SNP? What can they do, what would be their options?

 

UDI?

 

 

 

Possibly.

But it'd be insane to openly admit that there is no LEGAL exit path out of the UK.

That's not a Union; that's an Empire with Scotland as a colony.

That only plays even more to the Independence minded electorate.

 

[Dirty Deeds]

17 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

May I pose a hypothetical question?

 

Nicola = We want a referendum

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = See you in court

Supreme Court = NO needs Bo Jo to ok

Bo Jo = NO

Nicola = ???

 

Question was posed early this morning and expert replied "lets not go there". But where does that actually leave Nicola and the SNP? What can they do, what would be their options?

 

UDI?

 

 

The UK doesn't have a written constitution and relies on precedent.  The precedent was set in 2014.