Jump to content

Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

Recommended Posts

davemclaren
11 minutes ago, One five said:

Be nice for another final if we keep knocking on the door it will eventually open👍

The only way to win a final is to get to one or more. 😄

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 716
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Footballfirst

    33

  • davemclaren

    29

  • Smith's right boot

    24

  • Hagar the Horrible

    21

jamboinglasgow
30 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

A sc run will help keep us focused. 

 

If we get knocked out of that, the the last 4/5 games could be difficult. Minds would be turned to next season no doubt. 

 

Would agree, we can set yourselves up nicely for it. Rest players in league games (not all of them but rotate them) and focus on the cup as games will come quickly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

League for all intents and purposes is done. However, mentally it'll be a big weight off the squad's shoulders when it's wrapped up mathematically, allowing us to focus fully on the Scottish cup. Rest all our injury-prone wage thieves etc. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
kingantti1874
4 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

League for all intents and purposes is done. However, mentally it'll be a big weight off the squad's shoulders when it's wrapped up mathematically, allowing us to focus fully on the Scottish cup. Rest all our injury-prone wage thieves etc. 


and hopefully give some of the younger players game time. 
 

Link to post
Share on other sites
One five
57 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

The only way to win a final is to get to one or more. 😄

Absolutely 👍

Link to post
Share on other sites
Pasquale for King

When we win the league in a few weeks it will interesting and conflicting watching the playoffs, can’t stand any of the teams involved. Probably better for one these crap teams to come up with us and go straight back down again 😆

Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow
29 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

When we win the league in a few weeks it will interesting and conflicting watching the playoffs, can’t stand any of the teams involved. Probably better for one these crap teams to come up with us and go straight back down again 😆

 

As much as I would like to see those in the Championship miss out, the teams in the Premiership are the ones I would like to see suffer more.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Pasquale for King
2 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

As much as I would like to see those in the Championship miss out, the teams in the Premiership are the ones I would like to see suffer more.

Yeah probably, and I think any team going up with us would struggle anyway. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
GinRummy
4 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

As much as I would like to see those in the Championship miss out, the teams in the Premiership are the ones I would like to see suffer more.

I’d rather see Dunfermline (who acted badly towards us before anyone reminds me) going up and Hamilton or Ross County coming down. Not Raith or Dundee though. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow
19 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

I’d rather see Dunfermline (who acted badly towards us before anyone reminds me) going up and Hamilton or Ross County coming down. Not Raith or Dundee though. 

 

I know what you mean, Dundee could have stopped anything then sold themselves for the cheapest price. Raith's chairman destroyed years of good will between Hearts fans and Raith in a very short time. I would love it if QotS got into the play-offs, they did vote against us but there is nothing else I can really think of they did. 

 

Really want Ross County down.

Link to post
Share on other sites
GinRummy
9 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

I know what you mean, Dundee could have stopped anything then sold themselves for the cheapest price. Raith's chairman destroyed years of good will between Hearts fans and Raith in a very short time. I would love it if QotS got into the play-offs, they did vote against us but there is nothing else I can really think of they did. 

 

Really want Ross County down.

I want Ross County relegated as well. Would ideally like it to be in the play offs in injury time and a penalty that shouldn’t have been awarded. Maximum pain and appropriate dose of medicine. As unfair on them as it possibly could be. 

Edited by GinRummy
Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

As much as I would like to see those in the Championship miss out, the teams in the Premiership are the ones I would like to see suffer more.

Unless its Dundee , Dunfermline or Raith Rovers , hmmmm 🤔 #****emall

Link to post
Share on other sites
jambonian

I don't think there'd be much difference between Dunfermline, Dundee and Raith in the Premier than having shit like Hamilton, St Mirren and Ross County in there. Proves though that if the powers that be had considered a reconstruction to 16 teams, them and us would've made up the 16. The next League down would still be an interesting League with the likes of Falkirk, Morton, QoS, Ayr Utd etc fighting it out for promotion. This would be the only way some of those clubs would ever get into the top League. I mean, if fans were allowed in to grounds as normal, what games would attract more away fans out of a Hearts v Dundee game or a Hearts v Hamilton game? 

Anyway, as it stands at the moment...i'd happily see any of the Premier hangers-on relegated. Whether that's St Mirren, Hamilton, St Johnstone or Ross County....don't care. They bring nothing to the Premier that the better teams in the Championship couldn't. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ford Prentice

I want to see Kilmarnock down  because they have a plastic pitch and Killie fan Craig Anderson from the Terrace podcast is an annoying **** who has revelled in out demotion (the other Terrace guys are fine and both podcast and TV show are good).

 

Failing that Hamilton Accies, both their ground and pitch are a disgrace. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Smith's right boot
3 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

When we win the league in a few weeks it will interesting and conflicting watching the playoffs, can’t stand any of the teams involved. Probably better for one these crap teams to come up with us and go straight back down again 😆

 

 

Yip, and they'll be playing a Premier club that we also hate, be strange. 

 

For me it will be a Bit like watching rangers play hibs. 😜

Link to post
Share on other sites
Smith's right boot
1 hour ago, Ford Prentice said:

I want to see Kilmarnock down  because they have a plastic pitch and Killie fan Craig Anderson from the Terrace podcast is an annoying **** who has revelled in out demotion (the other Terrace guys are fine and both podcast and TV show are good).

 

Failing that Hamilton Accies, both their ground and pitch are a disgrace. 

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Smith's right boot
5 hours ago, davemclaren said:

The only way to win a final is to get to one or more. 😄

 

You're on to something there. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
spirt of 98
7 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

All fine, but don't state your opinion as fact, especially when predicting the future. 

 

It as you say - about opinions and mine is your facts were a lot of wind and pish. 

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Smith's right boot
9 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

 

 

Or else someone will call you out on your bull shite and you'll get all upset and end up in a rage. 

 

Why Who never put me me in charge, I don't know anyone by that name. 

 

 

Edited by Smith's right boot
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

Shithole of a town as well.

1 hour ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Footballfirst

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95
Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow
11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

 

I do enjoy every time this comes up now.

 

Also if Dundee lose at the weekend and we win, then they cant get more points than us and we have a +28 better goal difference.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, spirt of 98 said:

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

🤷🏿‍♂️ How odd.

Link to post
Share on other sites
spirt of 98
5 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Or else someone will call you out on your bull shite and you'll get all upset and end up in a rage. 

 

Why Who never put me me in charge, I don't know anyone by that name. 

 

 

Did ye aye 

Link to post
Share on other sites
credit card
16 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

 

 

How could you miss out their pies are rotten.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Lone Striker
1 hour ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

👍

 

An interesting comparison of the winning points totals in the Championship -

 

      Games Points PPG
2014-15   Hearts 36 91 2.53
2015-16   Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016-17   Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017-18   St. Mirren  36 74 2.06
2018-19   Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019-20   Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020-21   Hearts 20 45 2.25

 

Our PPG last time was the best ever by a long way.  If we can win another 16 points (or more) from the remaining 7 games - i.e. 5 wins and one draw - we'd beat Rangers PPG from 2015-16.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

👍

 

An interesting comparison of the winning points totals in the Championship -

 

      Games Points PPG
2014-15   Hearts 36 91 2.53
2015-16   Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016-17   Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017-18   St. Mirren  36 74 2.06
2018-19   Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019-20   Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020-21   Hearts 20 45 2.25

 

Our PPG last time was the best ever by a long way.  If we can win another 16 points (or more) from the remaining 7 games - i.e. 5 wins and one draw - we'd beat Rangers PPG from 2015-16.

 

 


since 2000 the only other team, aside from Rangers 2016, to come vaguely close to our 2015 side is Falkirk 2003 who got 81 points from 36 as well
 

Basically no other club this century  has done significantly better than Hearts are doing now

 

Looking even further back Three points for a win only came in in 1994  St Johnstone got 80 in 1997 and the only better ratio  than that is 2.47 For Hibs 89 Pts in 1999. 17 points from the last 7 games would see us beat that

 

A lot of the frustration we're all feeling this season is that we inevitably compare this season with 2015 as it's our only direct experience
 

The sooner we accept that this is normal and it's 2015 was very special as opposed to the other way round the calmer we'll be

 


 

 

Edited by topcat
Link to post
Share on other sites
Jambo in Bathgate
12 hours ago, topcat said:


since 2000 the only other team, aside from Rangers 2016, to come vaguely close to our 2015 side is Falkirk 2003 who got 81 points from 36 as well
 

Basically no other club this century  has done significantly better than Hearts are doing now

 

Looking even further back Three points for a win only came in in 1994  St Johnstone got 80 in 1997 and the only better ratio  than that is 2.47 For Hibs 89 Pts in 1999. 17 points from the last 7 games would see us beat that

 

A lot of the frustration we're all feeling this season is that we inevitably compare this season with 2015 as it's our only direct experience
 

The sooner we accept that this is normal and it's 2015 was very special as opposed to the other way round the calmer we'll be

 


 

We had a group of young players who went through the mill the previous season. This helped them bond. They were augmented by good signings for the Championship. There won’t be another season like that it was as you say very special. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
upgotheheads
On 16/03/2021 at 20:58, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

 

As the league stand bottom three can't catch us.

If we win on Saturday bottom five  can't catch us.

 

 

There's lots of ways of having fun with the numbers here. 

Edited by upgotheheads
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, upgotheheads said:

If we win on Saturday bottom five  can't catch us.


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow
2 minutes ago, topcat said:


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

 

Even if we lose, those teams have to win to be able to reach us. If we win and QotS dont then we are at least in the play-offs (or we draw and QotS lose.)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Restonbabe
19 hours ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

Like I predicted all along. Really wish I backed it when I said. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Hagar the Horrible
59 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

Even if we lose, those teams have to win to be able to reach us. If we win and QotS dont then we are at least in the play-offs (or we draw and QotS lose.)

 

I think we are already in the play offs. If dundee win all games then RR the Pars and QoS cannot all catch us and Dundee have to beat them too. In fact i think we are in second place at worst mathematically. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Hagar the Horrible

For QoS to catch is they would have to win all games including Dundee which rules them out so top 4 is guaranteed there. They would have to beat the Pars which would also rule out RR. But as RR and the Pars play each other that would rule out one or both. So at worst as it stands we cannot finish worse than second. Not withstanding any wins against the dross just extends the gap. Its over. We wont lose every game. Just awaiting the coronation 

Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow
15 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

I think we are already in the play offs. If dundee win all games then RR the Pars and QoS cannot all catch us and Dundee have to beat them too. In fact i think we are in second place at worst mathematically. 

 

6 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

For QoS to catch is they would have to win all games including Dundee which rules them out so top 4 is guaranteed there. They would have to beat the Pars which would also rule out RR. But as RR and the Pars play each other that would rule out one or both. So at worst as it stands we cannot finish worse than second. Not withstanding any wins against the dross just extends the gap. Its over. We wont lose every game. Just awaiting the coronation 

 

Thanks, that is some good work there. Yeah definitely a case that we have effectively won it, just need to get to the mathematical point when it is won.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Fort Vallance

Looking at the teams likely to make the playoffs from our league. None of them have got a hope in hell of beating Ross County, Kilmarnock or Hamilton in a play off.

Edited by Fort Vallance
Addition
Link to post
Share on other sites
kingantti1874
20 hours ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 


it will be finished by fixtures 22. We will win both and the pars will drop points 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kingantti1874 said:


it will be finished by fixtures 22. We will win both and the pars will drop points 

 

But we'd need them to drop 7 points in three  games

Which is entirely possible  given that the games in question are inverness (H) , Dundee(A) & Raith(A)
but by no means certain.

 




 

Link to post
Share on other sites
upgotheheads
3 hours ago, topcat said:


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

 

Brilliant.  I thought something like that would apply, but frankly I couldn't be arsed going though the numbers. Well done though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Footballfirst

Table after Alloa v Dungdee tonight.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86
Link to post
Share on other sites
Footballfirst

The latest update following today's borefest.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 21 46 18 64 2.19 59.14
Dunfermline 19 30 24 54 1.58 42.63
Raith 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
ICT 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
QOTS 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
Ayr 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Morton 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Arbroath 21 22 18 40 1.05 28.29
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86
Link to post
Share on other sites
Hagar the Horrible
2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The latest update following today's borefest.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 21 46 18 64 2.19 59.14
Dunfermline 19 30 24 54 1.58 42.63
Raith 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
ICT 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
QOTS 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
Ayr 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Morton 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Arbroath 21 22 18 40 1.05 28.29
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86

With the Pars having 2 games in hand against RR and Dundee, they are now jockeying for the playoffs, ICT can come into this as they can catch all, just not us.  It was already arithmaticaly impossible for us not to be in the paly-offs but the table now shows that.  You would think we can relax and just play without fear, but Robbie is preparing us to park the bus, cars, trikes, mopeds and roller-skates for next season

Link to post
Share on other sites
neilnunb

Got a bad feeling Dunfermline away will be the game to clinch the title, which they'll love hoping Hearts fans will snap up their PPV. 😐🖕

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, neilnunb said:

Got a bad feeling Dunfermline away will be the game to clinch the title, which they'll love hoping Hearts fans will snap up their PPV. 😐🖕

 

Don’t know about anyone else, but I certainly won’t.

Link to post
Share on other sites
jamboinglasgow

Interesting to see Dunfermline's next 3 games is Dundee (A), Raith (A) and then us (H).

 

A win for us and a loss for Dundee and Raith puts them out of reach, even if they get a draw they will be level in points but (at the moment) Raith are behind our goal difference by 20 goals and Dundee by 25 goals, so would have to overhaul that goal difference in 6 games.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...