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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

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davemclaren
1 hour ago, Fort Vallance said:

Safest way would be to discount away games on base it getting the points at home.

That’s just being silly. 

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Fort Vallance
15 hours ago, davemclaren said:

That’s just being silly. 

Nah. Thinking I was serious is being silly.

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Footballfirst

Updated projections

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 17 38 30 68 2.24
Dunfermline 16 27 33 60 1.69
Raith 15 24 36 60 1.60
QOTS 17 21 30 51 1.24
Dundee 14 20 39 59 1.43
Arbroath 17 18 30 48 1.06
Morton 16 18 33 51 1.13
ICT 13 17 42 59 1.31
Ayr 15 17 36 53 1.13
Alloa 15 12 36 48 0.80
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This thread is looking more and more stupid with each game that we spaff points up the wall in. 

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3 minutes ago, tian447 said:

This thread is looking more and more stupid with each game that we spaff points up the wall in. 

 

We can put it down to lockdown fatigue

 

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The American

Lose on Friday and Inverness can go 6 behind us if they win their games in hand 

🤔league not over 

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vegas-voss

Be easier doing when Dunfermline will catch us and then Hearts might wake the **** up again.

Edited by vegas-voss
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Australis
1 hour ago, The American said:

Lose on Friday and Inverness can go 6 behind us if they win their games in hand 

🤔league not over 

And you know Inverness will at least have a youth and freshness about them.

 

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everton_jambo

Worst thing about today was I’d have considered it a gimme. Dundee losing is the only real consolation but if anything it just adds to the frustration

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31 minutes ago, Australis said:

And you know Inverness will at least have a youth and freshness about them.

 

Possibly not in terms of freshness.

 

ICT will have played Wed (0 - 1 vs QotS H), Sat (2 - 0 Ayr A), Tues (H vs Alloa) & Fri (H vs HMFC).

 

We need to get at them from the off, get the 1st goal & push on.

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9 minutes ago, everton_jambo said:

Worst thing about today was I’d have considered it a gimme. Dundee losing is the only real consolation but if anything it just adds to the frustration

Snap.

 

The bonus ball was Rovers losing at Arbroath today, making it 2 weeks in a row Arbroath have helped our cause having defeated The Pars 2 - 0 last Saturday.

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Footballfirst

If this team was playing in the Premiership this season, with the same approach, it would be in a relegation dog fight.

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jambopilms
2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

If this team was playing in the Premiership this season, with the same approach, it would be in a relegation dog fight.

It's the reason we are in the championship. Players who think they are too good to put in effort against Hamilton St Mirren etc, at the same time as getting beat by Hamilton etc

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Footballfirst

Update after this weekend's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 18 39 27 66 2.17
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 18 24 27 51 1.33
Dundee 15 21 36 57 1.40
Arbroath 18 21 27 48 1.17
ICT 15 19 36 55 1.27
Morton 17 19 30 49 1.12
Ayr 16 17 33 50 1.06
Alloa 18 13 27 40 0.72
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eyesandears

Tough day for the pant wetters. Only Raith managed a win. But if they win their x games in hand bla bla bla. 😂

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Smith's right boot
14 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after this weekend's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 18 39 27 66 2.17
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 18 24 27 51 1.33
Dundee 15 21 36 57 1.40
Arbroath 18 21 27 48 1.17
ICT 15 19 36 55 1.27
Morton 17 19 30 49 1.12
Ayr 16 17 33 50 1.06
Alloa 18 13 27 40 0.72

 

 

Thanks for that. 

 

Edited by Smith's right boot
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spacerjoe
13 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after this weekend's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 18 39 27 66 2.17
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 18 24 27 51 1.33
Dundee 15 21 36 57 1.40
Arbroath 18 21 27 48 1.17
ICT 15 19 36 55 1.27
Morton 17 19 30 49 1.12
Ayr 16 17 33 50 1.06
Alloa 18 13 27 40 0.72

 

3 wins is likely all we'll need.

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Smith's right boot
3 minutes ago, eyesandears said:

Tough day for the pant wetters. Only Raith managed a win. But if they win their x games in hand bla bla bla. 😂

 

 

Don't know, if we lose all our games, Alloa could catch us. 

 

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1 minute ago, spacerjoe said:

 

3 wins is likely all we'll need.

Hopefully starting next week against Dundee.

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Smith's right boot
1 minute ago, spacerjoe said:

 

3 wins is likely all we'll need.

 

 

Next 4 games, 3 at home should see it done. 

 

If we lose / draw these then it's time to have real concerns. 

 

 

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eyesandears
1 minute ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Don't know, if we lose all our games, Alloa could catch us. 

 

🙂👍

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Italian Lambretta

The quicker this ****ing nightmare is over the better. I'm not sure what's worse the lockdown or watching Neilsons team every week being utter shite.

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On 20/02/2021 at 19:25, Footballfirst said:

If this team was playing in the Premiership this season, with the same approach, it would be in a relegation dog fight.

That's why we were in a relegation dog fight last season - playing exactly as we are now.

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The Real Maroonblood
12 minutes ago, Italian Lambretta said:

The quicker this ****ing nightmare is over the better. I'm not sure what's worse the lockdown or watching Neilsons team every week being utter shite.

Definitely watching the imposters’ team.

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Seymour M Hersh
3 minutes ago, Pilmuir said:

That's why we were in a relegation dog fight last season - playing exactly as we are now.

 

Unfortunately true. A Levein MKII team out there just now for us. 

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Section Q
On 03/02/2021 at 21:43, Footballfirst said:

Latest projection with max available points

 

  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Dunfermline 14 24 39 63
Raith 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 13 14 42 56
Arbroath 14 11 39 50
Alloa 13 8 42 50

What's the max allowing for all draws....?

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soonbe110
37 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after this weekend's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 18 39 27 66 2.17
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 18 24 27 51 1.33
Dundee 15 21 36 57 1.40
Arbroath 18 21 27 48 1.17
ICT 15 19 36 55 1.27
Morton 17 19 30 49 1.12
Ayr 16 17 33 50 1.06
Alloa 18 13 27 40 0.72

All over by Easter at the latest. Similar to last time 

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Voice of reason

Good results for us today apart from the Raith score. Relieved to see Dunfermline lose and with them playing Raith on Friday more points dropped by rivals - a draw would be good. Of course, we really need to beat Dundee. Can’t keep drawing games we should be winning.

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Section Q
38 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after this weekend's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 18 39 27 66 2.17
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 18 24 27 51 1.33
Dundee 15 21 36 57 1.40
Arbroath 18 21 27 48 1.17
ICT 15 19 36 55 1.27
Morton 17 19 30 49 1.12
Ayr 16 17 33 50 1.06
Alloa 18 13 27 40 0.72

Our max is falling by twice the points of Raith......

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3fingersreid

4 wins and a draw should do it

5 wins and it’s done 

if we hadn’t been so generous to other teams in recent weeks it would almost be done .

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Lone Striker
7 minutes ago, 3fingersreid said:

4 wins and a draw should do it

5 wins and it’s done 

if we hadn’t been so generous to other teams in recent weeks it would almost be done .

Probably, yes. But can you see us actually winning ANY game at all  based on recent evidence ? 🙄

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spacerjoe
12 minutes ago, 3fingersreid said:

4 wins and a draw should do it

5 wins and it’s done 

if we hadn’t been so generous to other teams in recent weeks it would almost be done .

 

If Raith were to average 2 points per game, which is significantly better than they have achieved so far, they can only get to 49 points. So we likely won't need that many.

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3fingersreid
23 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Probably, yes. But can you see us actually winning ANY game at all  based on recent evidence ? 🙄

Eh

 

 

eh

 

 

 

naw 😀

16 minutes ago, spacerjoe said:

 

If Raith were to average 2 points per game, which is significantly better than they have achieved so far, they can only get to 49 points. So we likely won't need that many.

🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

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Lone Striker

Things might become clearer after Raith play Dunfermline in early March.  Anything other than a Raith win will help us - ideally a draw.  For the sake of our blood pressure, let's hope we've got this league tied up before we go to Raith on the final Saturday. 🙄

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Worryingly, for a spell I thought we looked to lose belief last night. We’ve become desperate and if that sets in hard and another team is floating on momentum, it can change quickly. 
 

Like being on a great run and feeling like you can win every time you take the field, it’s a similar effect when you are struggling for wins and on the field the mind is clouded.  Hearts need their big players to really get the finger out and remove all doubt in the next few games.  

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Silvery_Moon

If Raith or Dunfermline had managed a reasonable degree of consistency then we would be in trouble. They haven't though and we will win the league despite our shortcomings. 

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Tokyo Drifter

If Raith and Dunfermline draw next week and we beat Dundee, then Dundee take something off Dunfermline and we beat Ayr, I'll be breathing an awful lot easier. I reckon the next three or so games will determine it.

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ToqueJambo

The good news, although with the SPFL you never know, is that we're already either at or very near the 75% games played point at which it's now OK (apparently) to stop leagues and award titles, promote teams, etc.

 

That was always the short-term target this season.

Edited by ToqueJambo
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9 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

The good news, although with the SPFL you never know, is that we're already either at or very near the 75% games played point at which it's now OK (apparently) to stop leagues and award titles, promote teams, etc.

 

That was always the short-term target this season.

Hasn't been decided. 

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ToqueJambo
1 minute ago, jr ewing said:

Hasn't been decided. 

 

Not surprising for the SPFL, but precedent was set.

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Fxxx the SPFL
15 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

The good news, although with the SPFL you never know, is that we're already either at or very near the 75% games played point at which it's now OK (apparently) to stop leagues and award titles, promote teams, etc.

 

That was always the short-term target this season.

the league will complete Jason the dentist today stated that lower leagues should start back next week SPFL/SFA will ignore him probably 

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Fozzyonthefence
2 hours ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

Not surprising for the SPFL, but precedent was set.


The precedent was that there would be a vote, not what the % would have to be.  The clubs refused to give the SPFL the power to decide this time, so there would have to be a vote again.   Which would again be determined by self interest so likely the same outcome.  But Championship will get finished anyway so it’s all irrelevant.  Could be a problem for Leagues 1 and 2 and below though. 

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Seymour M Hersh
11 hours ago, Silvery_Moon said:

If Raith or Dunfermline had managed a reasonable degree of consistency then we would be in trouble. 

 

Ifs and buts doesn't sink putts! 😀

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David McCaig
  P PTS PPG 27 Games MAX games required to reach 39 points
Hearts 18 39 2.17 58.50 66 0.0
Raith 16 27 1.69 45.56 60 7.1
Dunfermline 17 27 1.59 42.88 57 7.6
QOS 18 24 1.33 36.00 51 11.3
Dundee 15 21 1.40 37.80 57 12.9
Arbroath 18 21 1.17 31.50 48 15.4
Inverness 15 19 1.27 34.20 55 15.8
Morton 17 19 1.12 30.18 49 17.9
Ayr Utd 16 17 1.06 28.69 50 20.7
Alloa 18 12 0.67 18.00 39 40.5
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dannymack

At the very most, Saturdays game will see another draw, I really can't see Hearts beating Dundee, so far these few months Hearts have failed to impress, my confidence levels have dropped dramatically therefore I'd expect Hearts to wrap up the league a lot later than expected, if the teams below us continue to cut their own throats then that date may change but definite not anytime soon.

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SomethingAboutObua
5 hours ago, David McCaig said:
  P PTS PPG 27 Games MAX games required to reach 39 points
Hearts 18 39 2.17 58.50 66 0.0
Raith 16 27 1.69 45.56 60 7.1
Dunfermline 17 27 1.59 42.88 57 7.6
QOS 18 24 1.33 36.00 51 11.3
Dundee 15 21 1.40 37.80 57 12.9
Arbroath 18 21 1.17 31.50 48 15.4
Inverness 15 19 1.27 34.20 55 15.8
Morton 17 19 1.12 30.18 49 17.9
Ayr Utd 16 17 1.06 28.69 50 20.7
Alloa 18 12 0.67 18.00 39 40.5

I'm going to need 27 games and games required to reach 39 points explained to me?

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David McCaig
30 minutes ago, SomethingAboutObua said:

I'm going to need 27 games and games required to reach 39 points explained to me?

We are playing 27 games this season and 39 points is our current points total.

 

At their current rate, 2nd place Raith will need another 8 matches to reach our current points total.

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