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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

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15 hours ago, logopolis said:

The first time RN took over he inherited a Premership squad ( we were relegated on the points deduction ).

 

This time around he has  a  Championship squad that was in need of a  a complete overhaul. 

 

That's a bit of a stretch - we were absolute pony in the relegation season, with the exception of games against hibs and Aberdeen. 

 

What did happen though, was a lot of the younger players got extended runs in the team and gained invaluable experience. The team was then bolstered with more experience players - particularly in the middle with Prince and Gomis who ran the show.

 

That first day win really set us up for the season while putting instant pressure on the huns.

 

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Footballfirst

Updated after tonight's games.  Dundee now on level points and games with Raith. ICT into the playoff places.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 23 47 12 59 2.04 55.17
Raith 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
Dundee 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
ICT 23 33 12 45 1.43 38.74
Dunfermline 22 31 15 46 1.41 38.05
QOTS 22 30 15 45 1.36 36.82
Ayr 23 26 12 38 1.13 30.52
Morton 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Arbroath 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Alloa 23 18 12 30 0.78 21.13
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11 minutes ago, One five said:

Hope so I just can’t stand this wait much longer 🤦‍♂️

aye, best chance on Friday night. 

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11 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

aye, best chance on Friday night. 

Absolutely if we don’t beat the bottom of the league at home then I will really be worried .

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Last time we were in the Tyne arms. Watched the Rangers Hibs game. Great atmosphere. Went down to Tynecastle. The players came out for pics and celebrations. A training show got burnt! Will be a total anti climax this time. Players wouldn't be brave enough to come and see the fans even if they were allowed.

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Smith's right boot
44 minutes ago, bigdav said:

Last time we were in the Tyne arms. Watched the Rangers Hibs game. Great atmosphere. Went down to Tynecastle. The players came out for pics and celebrations. A training show got burnt! Will be a total anti climax this time. Players wouldn't be brave enough to come and see the fans even if they were allowed.

 

 

Always going to be an anti climax tho. 

Hibs and rangers made the league feel better than it actually was. 

We were better, Neilson had a cleans slate and almost every player was his and wanted to be there. 

Being at the games, we also  had 8 big games last time, this time none are on that scale. 

Lastly, rangers were favourites last time, we performed better and caused a little bit of a shock. 

 

It was never going to be like last time, ever. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Updated after tonight's games.  Dundee now on level points and games with Raith. ICT into the playoff places.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 23 47 12 59 2.04 55.17
Raith 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
Dundee 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
ICT 23 33 12 45 1.43 38.74
Dunfermline 22 31 15 46 1.41 38.05
QOTS 22 30 15 45 1.36 36.82
Ayr 23 26 12 38 1.13 30.52
Morton 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Arbroath 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Alloa 23 18 12 30 0.78 21.13

Imo, we are now at least 6 points short of our 'minimum acceptable points target' of 65 points.

 

Win all home, draw away should pick up a significant amount of wins to cover for odd away defeat, home draw.

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Hagar the Horrible

1 win will be enough, we could have done with Dundee losing last night to reduce the risk by half of being caught .  I still dont think we will be caught as everybody is shuffling for the play-off spot.  I just worry that IF Robbie has that one elusive win in him and 2 to make sure, so we are waiting on Raith and Dundee to drop the points we need to win, What a sad state to find ourselves in waiting on others to lose it so we can win it, as we dont have the wherewithall to win it ourselves, Still Robbie can take us forward eh?

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Hagar the Horrible
1 minute ago, Sherbet said:

If we dont win on friday we will be in Terry butcher territory 

If we dont win on Friday it will be 1986 territory, I cant see this team having any bottle to win this league

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4 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

If we dont win on Friday it will be 1986 territory, I cant see this team having any bottle to win this league

 

4 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

If we dont win on Friday it will be 1986 territory, I cant see this team having any bottle to win this league

We have no chance on the play offs with neilsen in charge

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1 hour ago, DETTY29 said:

Imo, we are now at least 6 points short of our 'minimum acceptable points target' of 65 points.

 

Win all home, draw away should pick up a significant amount of wins to cover for odd away defeat, home draw.

 

I think you might have your maths wrong.

14 home wins x 3 = 42points.

13 away draws = 13points

Total = 55

 

So we are currently 8 short of achieving your minimum acceptable points target and could (but almost certainly won't) over shoot it by 4 points.

 

Maybe I've misunderstood you.

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1 hour ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

If we dont win on Friday it will be 1986 territory, I cant see this team having any bottle to win this league

 

 

They have shown a complete lack of desire for some time now and there is no leader on the pitch and I include Naismith in that.

 

I think he has a detrimental effect on the players on the pitch as he constanly moans at them for things that he does himself. 

 

We are totally devoid of ideas as to how to draw teams out of their defensive set-ups and it would not surprsie me in the least if we did not win on Friday.

 

I really hope we can win and try and get this league over and done with and then we can hopefully move on with or without RN.

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53 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

I think you might have your maths wrong.

14 home wins x 3 = 42points.

13 away draws = 13points

Total = 55

 

So we are currently 8 short of achieving your minimum acceptable points target and could (but almost certainly won't) over shoot it by 4 points.

 

Maybe I've misunderstood you.

Christ, so I am. Dyslexia kicking in, maybe.  Nah, just got confused with what I wanted to say with a miscalculation.

 

55 is what I thought would be required to win league comfortably, which is now on track and looking like mid to late 40s will do it.

 

So yes in league terms we could get slightly above the miminum reasonable required points to what I thought would win league at start of season.

 

I didn't expect us to win every game, hoped to go undefeated but expected us to be a quite a bit above was needed.

 

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5 points required to be sure of going up. All the other teams desperate for points for play off places and ramping up their performances so we really can't depend on them all dropping points. Alloa are the worst team as they are at the bottom of the league. We must beat them on Friday but few it seems are actually confident that we will do it. What a state we're in. 

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Dundee and Raith both away next Tuesday to Dunfermline and QoS so we may well up winning this league then if they fail to take full points. That’s assuming all 3 teams win this weekend.

......I think.

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3 x 0-0 draws then if there was any room for a bottle to crash any further than it has, boom club implodes.

OR 

Players coaching staff and every other member of staff come to there senses and start to play how they should be playing and winning.

Heres hoping, but not convinced.

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11 hours ago, Sherbet said:

If we dont win on friday we will be in Terry butcher territory 


IIRC Hibs were 8 points clear of the relegation play off spot with 6 games to go......

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7 hours ago, 1953 said:

5 points required to be sure of going up. All the other teams desperate for points for play off places and ramping up their performances so we really can't depend on them all dropping points. Alloa are the worst team as they are at the bottom of the league. We must beat them on Friday but few it seems are actually confident that we will do it. What a state we're in. 


We have suffered years of abysmal negative shite under Cathro, Levein and now Neilson! They have knocked the stuffing out of the fans!

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7 hours ago, jamaroon said:

Dundee and Raith both away next Tuesday to Dunfermline and QoS so we may well up winning this league then if they fail to take full points. That’s assuming all 3 teams win this weekend.

......I think.

 

Yep pretty much. If we win one more game then Dundee and Raith need to win all there games but they also have to play each other. 

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3 hours ago, Jambo92 said:

 

Yep pretty much. If we win one more game then Dundee and Raith need to win all there games but they also have to play each other. 

Exactly.  And they will find it difficult to both win.  Make me think we have at least an outside chance of winning the league.

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If we win (or possibly even drop points) on Friday it's odd-on that we'll have won the league before we play again a week on Tuesday due to other teams' results.

 

Raith Rovers play 3 times (twice away) and Dundee play twice (one away) before we play again on Tuesday.

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15 hours ago, Thomaso said:


IIRC Hibs were 8 points clear of the relegation play off spot with 6 games to go......

6pts clear with 6 to go.

Derby win is still a favourite.

😂

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3 hours ago, Boab said:

6pts clear with 6 to go.

Derby win is still a favourite.

😂


👍

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Footballfirst

I'm going to take a calculated risk in assuming that Hearts won't lose a four goal lead, so the updated table is as below.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 24 50 9 59 2.08 56.25
Raith 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
Dundee 22 36 15 51 1.64 44.18
ICT 23 33 12 45 1.43 38.74
Dunfermline 22 31 15 46 1.41 38.05
QOTS 22 30 15 45 1.36 36.82
Ayr 23 26 12 38 1.13 30.52
Morton 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Arbroath 23 25 12 37 1.09 29.35
Alloa 24 18 9 27 0.75 20.25
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manaliveits105
59 minutes ago, Elmo said:

You now can’t get odds on Hearts winning the league that should ease the angst of all the shitebags 

:bravo:

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So now the only way we don’t win the league is if we lose our 3 remaining games and either Dundee or Raith win all 5 of theirs. Technically we need 2 points to be champions, but as our GD is 20 better than Raith’s and 26 better than Dundee’s, 1 point would do.

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6 minutes ago, Doc Rob said:

So now the only way we don’t win the league is if we lose our 3 remaining games and either Dundee or Raith win all 5 of theirs. Technically we need 2 points to be champions, but as our GD is 20 better than Raith’s and 26 better than Dundee’s, 1 point would do.

Dundee and Raith both have easy ish fhome fixtures tommorrow.  Then they both have tough away fixtures midweek.   I would imagine we will be officially Champions of this tin pot league come Tuesday night.  Hopefully a club statement Wednesday morning thanking Robbie for his efforts and parting ways. 

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9 hours ago, Doc Rob said:

So now the only way we don’t win the league is if we lose our 3 remaining games and either Dundee or Raith win all 5 of theirs. Technically we need 2 points to be champions, but as our GD is 20 better than Raith’s and 26 better than Dundee’s, 1 point would do.

And that ain’t happening 

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jamboinglasgow
14 minutes ago, King prawn said:

And that ain’t happening 

 

They have each won 10 games in 22 games. So an average of 5 wins every 11 games. So it would have to be an immense final 5 games for them.

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9 hours ago, Randy Marsh said:

Dundee and Raith both have easy ish fhome fixtures tommorrow.  Then they both have tough away fixtures midweek.   I would imagine we will be officially Champions of this tin pot league come Tuesday night.  Hopefully a club statement Wednesday morning thanking Robbie for his efforts and parting ways. 

I don't think that there will be a parting of the ways between the club and Robbie. I will be surprised if the club don't give Robbie the opportunity to build for next season 

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It'll be confirmed midweek.

Both Dundee and Raith will win today but won't on Tuesday night. Both have tricky away fixtures.

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I predict one of the two will draw today and the other one will draw midweek.

We will be awful for the last 3 games as there is nothing to play for, which will do nothing for the sanity of the support.

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1 hour ago, jambopilms said:

I predict one of the two will draw today and the other one will draw midweek.

We will be awful for the last 3 games as there is nothing to play for, which will do nothing for the sanity of the support.


I suspect you’re right. We have been erratic this season, but the clubs below us have been more so. On paper Raith and Dundee should both win, but even so. I could see Morton getting a cheeky draw with Dundee today, followed by Queens taking a point off Raith on Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, jambopilms said:

I predict one of the two will draw today and the other one will draw midweek.

We will be awful for the last 3 games as there is nothing to play for, which will do nothing for the sanity of the support.

More needed game time for Haring, hendo, gms, walker and soapy. 

 

Hopefully today is the day 

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1 hour ago, Restonbabe said:

More needed game time for Haring, hendo, gms, walker and soapy. 

 

Hopefully today is the day 

The sooner the better. 

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Ex member of the SaS

I must admit that after last night's game I am far more confidant. However until we get the last remaining point to make it impossible to lose I will hold the ( muted ) celebrations. No mater how we win the league that's all I want right now, but it really is a disgrace that we were close to needing teams to lose / draw to win such a crap league.

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14 hours ago, Doc Rob said:

So now the only way we don’t win the league is if we lose our 3 remaining games and either Dundee or Raith win all 5 of theirs. Technically we need 2 points to be champions, but as our GD is 20 better than Raith’s and 26 better than Dundee’s, 1 point would do.

If that scenario was to happen and it came down to goal difference, Dundee or Raith could quite easily wipe out our goal difference advantage. We need two points, simple as that! 

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jamboinglasgow
9 minutes ago, 1953 said:

If that scenario was to happen and it came down to goal difference, Dundee or Raith could quite easily wipe out our goal difference advantage. We need two points, simple as that! 

 

If say we drew 1 and lost 2 of our 3 remains games (which would be needed for this scenario) and lost each game by a goal (3 of our 4 defeats have been by 1 goal.)

 

Then Raith would need to win every game by more than 4 goals (though as we play them last they would need to win their next 4 games by 4 goals and beat us by 2 goals.) Dundee would need to win every game by 5 goals.

 

Raith have only won 2 games all season by at least 4 goals, Dundee have not won a game by more than 3 goals this season.

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