Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league

[davemclaren]

21 minutes ago, TypoonJambo said:

Nah, get Dungcaster in on the first day with fans. Make the man feel accepted.

Interesting atmosphere. 

[alwaysthereinspirit]

1 hour ago, naeclue said:

Seems appropriate that it’s other teams dropping points that confirms us as champions.

 

Great to be able to bounce back up.

🤦🏻‍♂️
The name Naeclue was chosen with perfection 

[cookieboy]

47 minutes ago, south morocco said:

What’s the format for the play offs?

4th v 3rd , winner plays 2nd, winner plays 11th in premiership 

[Hagar the Horrible]

Good to keep this going to work out which game was the decider dundee an the pars dropped more points 

[Footballfirst]

For anyone still interested in the playoffs

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	24	50	9	59	2.08	56.25
Raith	24	40	9	49	1.67	45.00
Dundee	24	38	9	47	1.58	42.75
ICT	24	34	9	43	1.42	38.25
Dunfermline	24	33	9	42	1.38	37.13
QOTS	24	31	9	40	1.29	34.88
Ayr	24	27	9	36	1.13	30.38
Morton	24	26	9	35	1.08	29.25
Arbroath	24	26	9	35	1.08	29.25
Alloa	24	18	9	27	0.75	20.25

[heartsfc_fan]

Dunfermline have chucked it. Had them on for 2nd in the early games of the league. Not now.

Imagine Raith go up 🤣 would be an incredible feat from League 1 last season (despite being promoted unfairly, of course, and their chairman being a ****)

[Restonbabe]

Playoff positions are tight. Will be a good run in to see who makes it. Definitely all still to play for. 

[DETTY29]

11 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good to keep this going to work out which game was the decider dundee an the pars dropped more points 

When we got to 

 

42 points, beat Dundee 2.1 (06 March)

45 points, beat Ayr 2.0 (13 March)

46 points, draw Arbroath (20 March)

47 points, draw Dunfermline (03 April)

50 points, beat Alloa (09 April)

 

[leipzig76]

11 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

Playoff positions are tight. Will be a good run in to see who makes it. Definitely all still to play for. 

After watching the match last night I cannot see much to worry about for Hamilton/Killie or Ross County over two legs in the playoffs

[sadj]

18 hours ago, heartsfc_fan said:

Dunfermline have chucked it. Had them on for 2nd in the early games of the league. Not now.

Imagine Raith go up 🤣 would be an incredible feat from League 1 last season (despite being promoted unfairly, of course, and their chairman being a ****)

Lots of  people had them to be miles in front of us after we lost 2-1 to them. 🙈

 

Fair play to Raith they look like theyll get over 45 points and I didn’t think any other team would manage that. 

[Footballfirst]

Today's update with Alloa's relegation confirmed. 🤣

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	24	50	9	59	2.08	56.25
Raith	25	43	6	49	1.72	46.44
Dundee	24	38	9	47	1.58	42.75
Dunfermline	25	36	6	42	1.44	38.88
ICT	24	34	9	43	1.42	38.25
QOTS	25	31	6	37	1.24	33.48
Arbroath	25	29	6	35	1.16	31.32
Ayr	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Morton	24	26	9	35	1.08	29.25
Alloa (Rel)	25	18	6	24	0.72	19.44

Edited April 17, 2021 by Footballfirst

[davemclaren]

On 31/01/2021 at 17:14, Restonbabe said:

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

You didn’t get the Results right but you we only one week out. 😀

[davemclaren]

2 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Today's update with Alloa's relegation confirmed. 🤣

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	24	50	9	59	2.08	56.25
Raith	25	43	6	49	1.72	46.44
Dundee	24	38	9	47	1.58	42.75
Dunfermline	25	36	6	42	1.44	38.88
ICT	24	34	9	43	1.42	38.25
QOTS	25	31	6	37	1.24	33.48
Arbroath	25	29	6	35	1.16	31.32
Ayr	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Morton	24	26	9	35	1.08	29.25
Alloa (Rel)	25	18	6	24	0.72	19.44

Looks like 45 points might not have been enough after all. 😎

[Longbaws]

It's been a rough season with covid and playing in empty stadiums. We should remember that a lot of teams were hit harder than us and blah blah blah

 

GIRFUY Alloa, hope this is the start of them folding

[Saint Jambo]

11 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Looks like 45 points might not have been enough after all. 😎

 

In one sense it definitely wouldn't have been, if we are thinking about when Hearts were on 45 points and some posters were suggesting it might well be enough. That was contingent on us losing all our games, so losing against Raith on the final day of the season. If we do that, Raith will now definitely finish above 45 points.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Saint Jambo

[Restonbabe]

On 17/04/2021 at 16:26, davemclaren said:

You didn’t get the Results right but you we only one week out. 😀

Overall I am happy with that. Bottom line we are up. 

[davemclaren]

5 minutes ago, Restonbabe said:

Overall I am happy with that. Bottom line we are up. 

Correct. 

[Kiwidoug]

I just hope our players don't bounce up and down in ecstasy when the trophy is presented.

 

Can't believe Celtic do that when they've basically bought the trophies for most of their history.

[davemclaren]

3 hours ago, Kiwidoug said:

I just hope our players don't bounce up and down in ecstasy when the trophy is presented.

 

Can't believe Celtic do that when they've basically bought the trophies for most of their history.

They’ve been told not to smile. 🙁

[Footballfirst]

As you were!

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	25	51	6	57	2.04	55.08
Raith	25	43	6	49	1.72	46.44
Dundee	25	39	6	45	1.56	42.12
Dunfermline	25	36	6	42	1.44	38.88
ICT	25	35	6	41	1.40	37.80
QOTS	25	31	6	37	1.24	33.48
Arbroath	25	29	6	35	1.16	31.32
Ayr	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Morton	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Alloa (Rel)	25	18	6	24	0.72	19.44

Edited April 20, 2021 by Footballfirst

[maroonsgotop]

guaranteed to win the league by at least 2 points 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

On 31/01/2021 at 17:41, Locky said:

Wishful thinking Restonbabe. I predict we'll not mathematically win the title until we play Morton away.

Almost right 

[August Landmesser]

2 hours ago, maroonsgotop said:

guaranteed to win the league by at least 2 points 

Which is pitiful. What a fiasco of a season this has been.

[davemclaren]

12 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

As you were!

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	25	51	6	57	2.04	55.08
Raith	25	43	6	49	1.72	46.44
Dundee	25	39	6	45	1.56	42.12
Dunfermline	25	36	6	42	1.44	38.88
ICT	25	35	6	41	1.40	37.80
QOTS	25	31	6	37	1.24	33.48
Arbroath	25	29	6	35	1.16	31.32
Ayr	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Morton	25	27	6	33	1.08	29.16
Alloa (Rel)	25	18	6	24	0.72	19.44

How is our PPG comparing now to previous championship winners. I think you had a comparison previously. 

[Footballfirst]

38 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

How is our PPG comparing now to previous championship winners. I think you had a comparison previously. 

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2011/12	Ross Co.	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2018/19	Ross Co.	36	71	1.97
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2020/21	Hearts	25	51	2.04

[davemclaren]

3 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2011/12	Ross Co.	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2018/19	Ross Co.	36	71	1.97
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2020/21	Hearts	25	51	2.04

Thanks. I wasn’t sure it was you but knew you wouldn’t be able to resist a spreadsheet challenge. 😂
 

Need to win our next two games to keep it respectable. 

[indianajones]

11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2011/12	Ross Co.	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2018/19	Ross Co.	36	71	1.97
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2020/21	Hearts	25	51	2.04

 

How do we have a better PPG average than Hibs in 16/17?

 

Its very hard to believe considering how utter pish we have been. 

[davemclaren]

26 minutes ago, indianajones said:

 

How do we have a better PPG average than Hibs in 16/17?

 

Its very hard to believe considering how utter pish we have been. 

Pish is a relative concept. 

[indianajones]

54 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Pish is a relative concept. 

 

It really is when dealing with Hibs i guess! 

[davemclaren]

2 hours ago, BarneyBattles said:

 

We also have a much better goals per game average too (2.24 to their 1.64). Hibs won 19 games and scored 59 goals in 36 games. We've won 15 games and scored 56 goals in 25 games. 

 

We've been generally woeful but hopefully you can use these stats if any hibbies are on the wind up  

Some good news...at last. 

[davemclaren]

4 minutes ago, BarneyBattles said:

 

Indeed. Might celebrate with a Chinese take-away tonight. Hope Robbie Neilson doesn't pass my window when I'm eating it.

Noodle out. 

[Footballfirst]

Playoff places confirmed.

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	26	54	3	57	2.08	56.08
Raith	26	43	3	46	1.65	44.65
Dundee	26	42	3	45	1.62	43.62
Dunfermline	26	39	3	42	1.50	40.50
ICT	26	35	3	38	1.35	36.35
QOTS	26	32	3	35	1.23	33.23
Arbroath	26	29	3	32	1.12	30.12
Ayr	26	28	3	31	1.08	29.08
Morton	26	28	3	31	1.08	29.08
Alloa (Rel)	26	19	3	22	0.73	19.73

[DETTY29]

Don't get beat next week and Ayr United was the game we couldn't be caught.

[Hagar the Horrible]

46 was good enough after all

[Footballfirst]

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	27	57	0	57	2.11	57.00
Dundee	27	45	0	45	1.67	45.00
Raith	27	43	0	43	1.59	43.00
Dunfermline	27	39	0	39	1.44	39.00
ICT	27	36	0	36	1.33	36.00
QOTS	27	32	0	32	1.19	32.00
Arbroath	27	30	0	30	1.11	30.00
Ayr	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Morton	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Alloa (Rel)	27	22	0	22	0.81	22.00

[August Landmesser]

4 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	27	57	0	57	2.11	57.00
Dundee	27	45	0	45	1.67	45.00
Raith	27	43	0	43	1.59	43.00
Dunfermline	27	39	0	39	1.44	39.00
ICT	27	36	0	36	1.33	36.00
QOTS	27	32	0	32	1.19	32.00
Arbroath	27	30	0	30	1.11	30.00
Ayr	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Morton	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Alloa (Rel)	27	22	0	22	0.81	22.00

Would fancy Falkirk or Cove to beat Morton, don't know how 'Airdrie' are playing

[davemclaren]

42 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch)	27	57	0	57	2.11	57.00
Dundee	27	45	0	45	1.67	45.00
Raith	27	43	0	43	1.59	43.00
Dunfermline	27	39	0	39	1.44	39.00
ICT	27	36	0	36	1.33	36.00
QOTS	27	32	0	32	1.19	32.00
Arbroath	27	30	0	30	1.11	30.00
Ayr	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Morton	27	29	0	29	1.07	29.00
Alloa (Rel)	27	22	0	22	0.81	22.00

Big ask but could you redo the winners PPG table you did and order it from high to low? 😄

[Guest ToqueJambo]

That's a wrap. Hopefully never to be repeated.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

Feeling quietly confident at this point.

[jamboinglasgow]

So if you include our goal difference, 45 points would have been enough.

[Footballfirst]

18 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Big ask but could you redo the winners PPG table you did and order it from high to low? 😄

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2011/12	Ross Co	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2020/21	Hearts	27	57	2.11
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2018/19	Ross Co	36	71	1.97
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92

[davemclaren]

Just now, Footballfirst said:

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2011/12	Ross Co	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2020/21	Hearts	27	57	2.11
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2018/19	Ross Co	36	71	1.97
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92

Thanks. 

[Guest ToqueJambo]

21 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season	Champion	P	Pts	PPG
2014/15	Hearts	36	91	2.53
2015/16	Rangers	36	81	2.25
2011/12	Ross Co	36	79	2.19
2012/13	Partick	36	78	2.17
2020/21	Hearts	27	57	2.11
2019/20	Dundee Utd	28	59	2.11
2017/18	St Mirren	36	74	2.06
2016/17	Hibernian	36	71	1.97
2018/19	Ross Co	36	71	1.97
2013/14	Dundee	36	69	1.92

 

 

That 14/15 season really was a much better achievement than it's often credited with, all things considered. Great to see Hearts Neilson giving D Utd Neilson a big GIRUY by equalling their pretendy title PPG in a similar # of games and without needing to go into 3m in debt and sign Lawrence Shankland to do it.

 

Goals scored is interesting too:

 

Hearts - 96

Rangers - 88

Thistle - 76

RC- 72

Hearts - 63 (27 games)

RC - 63

St Mirren - 63

Hibs - 59 (Flair 🤣)

Dundee - 54

D Utd - 52 (28 games)

 

Outscored Hibs with 9 fewer games

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by ToqueJambo

[jamboinglasgow]

12 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

 

That 14/15 season really was a much better achievement than it's often credited with, all things considered. Great to see Hearts Neilson giving D Utd Neilson a big GIRUY by equalling their pretendy title PPG in a similar # of games and without needing to go into 3m in debt and sign Lawrence Shankland to do it.

 

Goals scored is interesting too:

 

Hearts - 96

Rangers - 88

Thistle - 76

RC- 72

Hearts - 63 (27 games)

RC - 63

St Mirren - 63

Hibs - 59 (Flair 🤣)

Dundee - 54

D Utd - 52 (28 games)

 

Outscored Hibs with 9 fewer games

 

 

If we continued at our goal per game ratio (2.33) in a 36 game season, then we would have finished with 84 goals. 

[Saint Jambo]

On 27/03/2021 at 17:12, 1902hewat said:

We will not win this league

We will lose all renaming games

Raith will win league

we will get by Dunfermline in the playoffs 

said this before say it again 

 

 

Anyone wanting a laugh could do worse than jumping back to page 9 of this thread and reading some of the absolute hysteria about the chances of us blowing the league. Between the QotS and Dunfermline games. Posters claiming there was no way that we were going to take another point and other teams were going to go on amazing runs. In the end it turned out we had already done enough by that stage, then went on to finish the season as the form side in the league.

 

There were a lot of claims that we were lucky it was a 27 game season because if it had gone on any longer, the chasing pack was going to reel us in. In reality we extended our lead over everyone else in the league over the final five games (the only team to win 3 of our last 5 games).

 

(Last time I failed to mention that when pointing out why us losing the league was a fantasy, someone immediately responded by suggesting I thought everything was fine, so I guess I need to caveat this post by saying this doesn't mean I think everything is rosy, that we shouldn't have picked up more points this season, or that Neilson has done a good this season.)

[Guest ToqueJambo]

8 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

Anyone wanting a laugh could do worse than jumping back to page 9 of this thread and reading some of the absolute hysteria about the chances of us blowing the league. Between the QotS and Dunfermline games. Posters claiming there was no way that we were going to take another point and other teams were going to go on amazing runs. In the end it turned out we had already done enough by that stage, then went on to finish the season as the form side in the league.

 

There were a lot of claims that we were lucky it was a 27 game season because if it had gone on any longer, the chasing pack was going to reel us in. In reality we extended our lead over everyone else in the league over the final five games (the only team to win 3 of our last 5 games).

 

(Last time I failed to mention that when pointing out why us losing the league was a fantasy, someone immediately responded by suggesting I thought everything was fine, so I guess I need to caveat this post by saying this doesn't mean I think everything is rosy, that we shouldn't have picked up more points this season, or that Neilson has done a good this season.)

 

I know I cried myself to sleep over Raith's games in hand. With laughter!

 

I also caveat that not everything is fine, mostly in the cups. The stats above show that, even this season, we made a better fist of winning this league than teams with similar or greater advantages to us. Well, one team in particular - Hibs.

Edited April 30, 2021 by ToqueJambo

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

On 31/01/2021 at 21:35, Sir Gio said:

In truth we probably only need 6 more wins 

4 would have done as of 1st February. 

 

Which kind of demonstrates how easy this was.

 

Hindsight and all that eh.