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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


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Footballfirst

Today's update

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11
ICT 17 20 30 50 1.18
Ayr 17 20 30 50 1.18
Morton 18 19 27 46 1.06
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74
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12 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Today's update

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11
ICT 17 20 30 50 1.18
Ayr 17 20 30 50 1.18
Morton 18 19 27 46 1.06
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74

Those *******s from Alloa ain't catching us now :) 

 

Next up, Morton.

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Malinga the Swinga

Relegation avoided, 5 points required to avoid the play off place. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Relegation avoided, 5 points required to avoid the play off place. 

 

Only 3 Arbroath can only get 45 points.

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Malinga the Swinga
14 minutes ago, EIEIO said:

Only 3 Arbroath can only get 45 points.

Wait, if Arbroath win all their games, Morton can only get 43. Day just gets better 

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gashauskis9

I had a hunch we would finish on 60-64 points.  I now think we’ll finish on 60 (6 wins, 2 defeats in the last 8).

 

I also felt that we’d be the only team to go over 50 points.  I’m sticking by that, although I reckon Raith could go close to that.  
 

So we’ll win by 12 points, therefore I think we’ll win it against Alloa.   

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heartsfc_fan

I was slightly surprised when I checked the other day that Hibs won the championship (36 games) by 11 points in 2017.

 

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His name is
46 minutes ago, heartsfc_fan said:

I was slightly surprised when I checked the other day that Hibs won the championship (36 games) by 11 points in 2017.

 

They also drew 14/36 games

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Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

Could be all over bar the singing after the games on the 20th. We play twice and Raith play 4 times in that period. If we win both and they pick up say 6 points from the 4, for all intents and purposes the leagues wrapped up. Would only need to pick up 9 points from 6 games, and Raith need to win their final 7. Big couple weeks.

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jamboinglasgow

Looking at the points per games of teams at the moment and remaining games, Raith Rovers would reach 46 points. Dunfermline would reach 43.

 

If you look at the amount of games to play, Raith have 11 leagues game to play in 47 days, plus a Scottish cup tie v Stirling Abion (so most likely another round after that.) So you could say reasonable they have 13 games to play in 52 days or a game every 4 days

 

Dunfermline have 10 league games with the earliest at the moment (unless their covid case pushes it back even further) on a week today, so at 10 league games in 48 days. They too have a second round Scottish cup match to play, though with it being against Morton makes it harder to get to 3rd round. But if they did it would mean 12 games in 48 days, which works out as a match every 4 days as well.

 

Point being, with such a punishing end to the season for the two closest rivals it will be hard for them to keep up a good ppg. And under current PPG, we would finish past those points if we win our next two games.

Edited by jamboinglasgow
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Ex member of the SaS

Don't think the points per game formula will come into it. We just need to win games and be top as the season won't be called early now.

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south morocco
36 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

Looking at the points per games of teams at the moment and remaining games, Raith Rovers would reach 46 points. Dunfermline would reach 43.

 

If you look at the amount of games to play, Raith have 11 leagues game to play in 47 days, plus a Scottish cup tie v Stirling Abion (so most likely another round after that.) So you could say reasonable they have 13 games to play in 52 days or a game every 4 days

 

Dunfermline have 10 league games with the earliest at the moment (unless their covid case pushes it back even further) on a week today, so at 10 league games in 48 days. They too have a second round Scottish cup match to play, though with it being against Morton makes it harder to get to 3rd round. But if they did it would mean 12 games in 48 days, which works out as a match every 4 days as well.

 

Point being, with such a punishing end to the season for the two closest rivals it will be hard for them to keep up a good ppg. And under current PPG, we would finish past those points if we win our next two games.

That’s it. I think 6 points will do it 

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JimmyCant
20 minutes ago, south morocco said:

That’s it. I think 6 points will do it 

Yep. Win the next 2 homes games against Ayr and QOTS and we can relax. Play with a bit more freedom and maybe have a right good go at the cup

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jamboinglasgow

Also worth noting that Dunfermline got 17 points from their first 7 games, and only 10 points in their next 10 games. 

 

Raith Rovers got 15 points from their first 8 games, then 12 points from their next 8 games.

 

So you have two teams who started very strongly, with mixed results later after the start. Where as a team like Queen of the south have got 23 points in their last 10 games, who had such a bad start that they have never been in the title chase, but had that happened at the the other way round they would be seen as rivals for us.

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DETTY29
12 hours ago, gashauskis9 said:

I had a hunch we would finish on 60-64 points.  I now think we’ll finish on 60 (6 wins, 2 defeats in the last 8).

 

I also felt that we’d be the only team to go over 50 points.  I’m sticking by that, although I reckon Raith could go close to that.  
 

So we’ll win by 12 points, therefore I think we’ll win it against Alloa.   

I thought by winning all home and all drawing games would see us win league as a points average, so we needed 55 (2.04 pts per games) and expected us to get high 60s (2.56)

 

As our max is 66 (2.44), so we are behind where I thought we would be but we'll ahead of what is required.

 

I'll be surprised if another team gets to 50 so only 3 wins required, imo.

Edited by DETTY29
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jamboinglasgow
29 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I thought by winning all home and all drawing games would see us win league as a points average, so we needed 55 (2.04 pts per games) and expected us to get high 60s (2.56)

 

As our max is 66 (2.44), so we are behind where I thought we would be but we'll ahead of what is required.

 

I'll be surprised if another team gets to 50 so only 3 wins required, imo.

 

Would agree with that. 3 wins put us at 51 points, Raith would need 8 wins from their remaining 11 games (though with goal difference they would need at least another draw, so 8 wins and 1 draw in 11.) Dunfermline are the same number of wins and draws but only have 10 games to do it in.

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Tommy Brown

We are not going to go on an horrendous losing streak. 

I just want us not to eff up against Raith and Pars.

Is certainly got very interesting now for play off places. None are capable of winning the final, though.

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Hagar the Horrible
On 06/03/2021 at 16:57, Footballfirst said:

Today's update

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21
Raith 16 27 33 60 1.69
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11
ICT 17 20 30 50 1.18
Ayr 17 20 30 50 1.18
Morton 18 19 27 46 1.06
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74

If you add the points averaged so far the max RR will get be 46. 2 more wins might be enough 4 will be enough 

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Big Slim Stylee
8 hours ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

Would agree with that. 3 wins put us at 51 points, Raith would need 8 wins from their remaining 11 games (though with goal difference they would need at least another draw, so 8 wins and 1 draw in 11.) Dunfermline are the same number of wins and draws but only have 10 games to do it in.

So short of fingernails left to bite here.

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comradejambo
7 hours ago, Tommy Brown said:

We are not going to go on an horrendous losing streak. 

I just want us not to eff up against Raith and Pars.

Is certainly got very interesting now for play off places. None are capable of winning the final, though.

Don’t know about that... the likes of Hamilton , Ross county , Killie are more than capable of struggling away from home at an east end or Palmerston.... under pressure at home they could mess it up. See hibs 2014

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Weakened Offender
4 minutes ago, comradejambo said:

Don’t know about that... the likes of Hamilton , Ross county , Killie are more than capable of struggling away from home at an east end or Palmerston.... under pressure at home they could mess it up. See hibs 2014

 

Aberdeen are 4th in that league and have scored once in 8 or 9 games. The difference in standard is nowhere near big as some on here make out. 

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Tommy Brown
1 minute ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

Aberdeen are 4th in that league and have scored once in 8 or 9 games. The difference in standard is nowhere near big as some on here make out. 

I hope you and @comradejambo are right.

 

I ain't looking forward to next season on these displays.

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GinRummy
12 minutes ago, comradejambo said:

Don’t know about that... the likes of Hamilton , Ross county , Killie are more than capable of struggling away from home at an east end or Palmerston.... under pressure at home they could mess it up. See hibs 2014

Most of the time the top flight club stays up.

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davemclaren
17 minutes ago, Lfhearts said:

Who actually cares.

People posting in the thread, I would assume. 

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Victorian

It could all come together quickly.  We might have it won in about 4 games,  if others drop points.

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DETTY29

All the clubs in and around relegation and the play off places shafted us in one way or another.

 

If the SPFL aren't going to do anything about these crap plastic pitches in the top league then I'd probably accept Hamilton and Killie going down, with Dunfermline coming up.

 

Dundee can go cluck themselves, forever.

Edited by DETTY29
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Lone Striker
11 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

All the clubs in and around relegation and the play off places shafted us in one way or another.

 

If the SPFL aren't going to do anything about these crap plastic pitches in the top league then I'd probably accept Hamilton and Killie going down, with Dunfermline coming up.

 

Dundee can go cluck themselves, forever.

 We can definitely now afford ourselves a wee examination  of "who do we detest the most" as a result of who voted against doing the most sensible thing in the Covid circumstances  last year.      I'd love to see QoS stuff Raith & Dunfermline and then go on to beat Killie in the playoff final to send them down.   There's something about Tommy Wright that stops me from liking him, even though what he did at  St. Johnstone was admirable.

 

What's going on with L1 & L2 ?       There seems to now be a disagreement between the SPFL and the clubs about how many games should be played.    Here's this beauty from Shifty McGifty -

 

The SPFL board "respects the right of League 1 and League 2 clubs to determine how many league matches they wish to play", but chairman Murdoch MacLennan said it "has severe reservations" about the practicality of part-time clubs completing the desired length of season.

 

Anything to try to protect  his  pal Mulraney's club from being relegated !!  They've already ensured that Brechin are safe by throwing the HL and LL clubs under the bus - again.

 

Outrageous that Falkirk & Partick could be trapped in L1 for another year.

   

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dannymack

One game at a time, a resounding performance with a barrel load of goals v Ayr United please.

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Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

Would be good to have it wrapped up before the Scottish cup picks back up again, allowing for us to fully focus on that. 

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ToadKiller Dog

Can't see anybody going on the run needed to catch us .but the sooner we do it the better .

Dundee missing out on a play off would amuse .

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Tokyo Drifter

Need to wrap it up asap so we can start to give some of the youngsters a run-out. Time we blooded some academy prospects.

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Just now, ToadKiller Dog said:

Can't see anybody going on the run needed to catch us .but the sooner we do it the better .

Dundee missing out on a play off would amuse .

Dundee going bust, their stadium collapsing, Strachan finally disappearing up his own arse and Nelms' head being paraded on a spike through the streets of Gorgie would, too.

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ToadKiller Dog
1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Dundee going bust, their stadium collapsing, Strachan finally disappearing up his own arse and Nelms' head being paraded on a spike through the streets of Gorgie would, too.

If that was to happen I think I might die of laughter ,certainly the old derry end of dens is not far away from collapsing .

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tian447

The 3 "games in hand" that Raith have are probably more of a hindrance to them than anything else.  Getting toward the time they need to play them, they're going to end up needing to play 3 games inside the same week.  I can't see them getting any more than 4 points out of those fixtures.

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DETTY29
12 minutes ago, Tokyo Drifter said:

Need to wrap it up asap so we can start to give some of the youngsters a run-out. Time we blooded some academy prospects.

Seems like we've only Scott McGill kicking about just now, at a push Euan Henderson.

 

If it is any youngsters, it would probably need to be the u17s.

 

And Gordon wants to rack up as many appearances as possible, plus with Euros and Marshall having a bad back, won't want to give any if tge keepers anything.

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8 minutes ago, tian447 said:

The 3 "games in hand" that Raith have are probably more of a hindrance to them than anything else.  Getting toward the time they need to play them, they're going to end up needing to play 3 games inside the same week.  I can't see them getting any more than 4 points out of those fixtures.

Indeed. Points in the bag are almost always better than games in hand. 

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Just now, DETTY29 said:

Seems like we've only Scott McGill kicking about just now, at a push Euan Henderson.

 

If it is any youngsters, it would probably need to be the u17s.

 

And Gordon wants to rack up as many appearances as possible, plus with Euros and Marshall having a bad back, won't want to give any if tge keepers anything.

At the same time, we need to think about the club as a whole, not just one player. Is Harry Stone at the club or out on loan? And surely to god we have a centre back in the reserve/youth team that isn't as bad as the Halkett/Popescu/Berra combo rotation!

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1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Indeed. Points in the bag are almost always better than games in hand. 

Or in a bush. 

 

I'm in a mood to be mixing metaphors.

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Wee Mikey
2 minutes ago, Barack said:

Or in a bush. 

 

I'm in a mood to be mixing metaphors.

But, is a point in the hand worth two in the bush? Perhaps not.

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3 minutes ago, Barack said:

Or in a bush. 

 

I'm in a mood to be mixing metaphors.

 

Just now, Wee Mikey said:

But, is a point in the hand worth two in the bush? Perhaps not.

Are you saying not to count your points until they are in a bush?

 

:confused:

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19 minutes ago, ToadKiller Dog said:

If that was to happen I think I might die of laughter ,certainly the old derry end of dens is not far away from collapsing .

TBF, most of Dundee looks like its just a good shoogle away from turning into a pit of dust and debris.

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7 minutes ago, Wee Mikey said:

But, is a point in the hand worth two in the bush? Perhaps not.

 

6 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Are you saying not to count your points until they are in a bush?

 

:confused:

I'm not sure anymore. It's been a long night.

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portobellojambo1
33 minutes ago, Tokyo Drifter said:

Need to wrap it up asap so we can start to give some of the youngsters a run-out. Time we blooded some academy prospects.

 

I'm thinking along these lines. Get it done sooner rather than later, and then use the last few games to determine who we think can step up to the top division, where we need to introduce youngsters/sign players to fill positions we are weak in and who can be told their time at Tynecastle is now over. Then spend the whole of the pre season working on a system that works for us, look to get that as near perfect as possible, apply it every game early next season and let the opposition worry about how to stop us rather than us worrying that they are too good for us. I've not watched an awful lot of football from the top division on TV this year but outside of the improvements Gerrard has made to Rangers the rest of the teams in the league look ordinary at best. We need to believe we have a chance to get in about them and not worry about every game and keep changing style/tactics. Set out your stall, with only one end requirement, to continue to make that stall better.

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Fxxx the SPFL
33 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Indeed. Points in the bag are almost always better than games in hand. 

correct

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David McCaig
  P PTS PPG 27 Games MAX games required to reach 42 points
Hearts 19 42 2.21 59.68 66 0.0
Raith 16 27 1.69 45.56 60 8.9
Dunfermline 17 27 1.59 42.88 57 9.4
QOS 19 27 1.42 38.37 51 10.6
Dundee 17 24 1.41 38.12 54 12.8
Arbroath 19 21 1.11 29.84 45 19.0
Inverness 17 20 1.18 31.76 50 18.7
Ayr Utd 17 20 1.18 31.76 50 18.7
Morton 18 19 1.06 28.50 46 21.8
Alloa 19 14 0.74 19.89 38 38.0

 

 

Based on PPG we need 4 points to win the League and 1 point to finish 2nd.

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jamboinglasgow
1 hour ago, tian447 said:

The 3 "games in hand" that Raith have are probably more of a hindrance to them than anything else.  Getting toward the time they need to play them, they're going to end up needing to play 3 games inside the same week.  I can't see them getting any more than 4 points out of those fixtures.

 

Their next few weeks for Raith are a game tomorrow, game on Friday, game next Tuesday then a game the following Saturday Then a cup game the Tuesday, then another game on the Saturday. So they are going to be playing 6 games in 19 days. 

Edited by jamboinglasgow
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Pasquale for King

So unlikely to be confirmed this month, even if we manage to win all our games unless the others lose the majority of theirs? I can’t see either happening to be honest. 

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2 wins will do then we can all go to princess street Gardens for a big party no social distance required 

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