Jump to content

Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

Recommended Posts

Restonbabe

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 684
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Footballfirst

    28

  • Smith's right boot

    24

  • davemclaren

    21

  • Morgan

    21

frankblack

Too many ifs and buts and that team is never going unbeaten with the luck they rode yesterday.

 

Our form would more likely suggest 1 defeat every 3 or 4 games.  Our defence is just not good enough.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4marsbars

How many of these 'next 5 matches' type threads, predicting maximum points, have we read over the years?

 

One game at  time.

 

We're doing well so far but not perfect.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

That's us played the 'better' teams in the league the last few weeks, got a spell of games against the 'worse' teams now (obvioulsy they're all poor teams but its relative). We could very well go on to win the next 4 up to the Dundee game. Going on a strict points per game basis, we would be 14(.5) points clear of Raith after these games, with 27 points left to play for. If we win every game, and Raith continue at the rate they have been going so far, we would win the league at Arbroath March 20th.

 

So effectively, 7 wins from our next 8 should do it.

 

 

 

Edited by Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine
Link to post
Share on other sites
Mikey1874

We currently need 11 more wins and a draw. 

 

But with other teams it's probably 8 wins. 

 

Say we now do 8 wins in 10 games that is Alloa 4th last game. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wishful thinking Restonbabe. I predict we'll not mathematically win the title until we play Morton away.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Restonbabe
7 minutes ago, Locky said:

Wishful thinking Restonbabe. I predict we'll not mathematically win the title until we play Morton away.

I'm predicting dunfermline away 3rd April.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If Armand gets up to fitness and does what he did against Raith regularly then this could be wrapped up in March. So I'll go for the game away to Arbroath on the 20th March, assuming the playoff battle sees teams taking points off each other.

 

Edited by kila
Link to post
Share on other sites
ToqueJambo

Don't leagues just end with 8 games left to play these days as it's impossible for teams to make up gaps or improve their form in the last few games, or so we heard last year?

 

So 5 more games until the title is ours!

Edited by ToqueJambo
Link to post
Share on other sites
Toxteth O'Grady

We never seem to play well very often and certainly can’t expect to win a run of games. That said neither do any of our rivals. I think we will win it but predicting when is a lottery.

Link to post
Share on other sites
frankblack
8 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

Don't leagues just end with 8 games left to play these days as it's impossible for teams to make up gaps or improve their form in the last few games, or so we heard last year?

 

So 5 more games until the title is ours!

 

Depends on Celtic.

Link to post
Share on other sites
ToqueJambo
2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Depends on Celtic.

 

Pretty sure they won't get their null and void now. Just 4 games until the 30 game mark now when European places can be awarded and titles have been apparently earned.

Edited by ToqueJambo
Link to post
Share on other sites

Stopped reading after word 8 of the OP. 

 

Maths

Link to post
Share on other sites
BarneyBattles
1 hour ago, Sarah O said:

Stopped reading after word 8 of the OP. 

 

Maths


Annoying isn’t it. Math FFS😂
 

Edited just in case the OP is indeed American😀

Edited by BarneyBattles
Link to post
Share on other sites
Durham Jambo

Based on current points per game, our nearest challenger is Raith. They would get 47.25 point after 27 games at their current average. 
 

Therefore 15 points, or 5 wins is all we need. Anything over 50 points is pretty

much a certainty. It’s not that we have to be that good - all our challengers will be cutting each other’s throats. 

Edited by Durham Jambo
Link to post
Share on other sites
Samuel Camazzola
2 hours ago, Sarah O said:

Stopped reading after word 8 of the OP. 

 

Maths

 

26 minutes ago, BarneyBattles said:


Annoying isn’t it. Math FFS😂
 

Edited just in case the OP is indeed American😀

Shouldn't it be arithmetic? 

 

:runaway:

Link to post
Share on other sites
ToqueJambo
2 minutes ago, Samuel Camazzola said:

 

Shouldn't it be arithmetic? 

 

:runaway:

 

It's "Sums" or GTF

Link to post
Share on other sites
OmiyaHearts

No chance we'll win that many. I think the best we've done this season, in the league, is 3 wins in a row? 

 

We'll still win the league comfortably, I think.

Edited by OmiyaHearts
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

It's "Sums" or GTF

Fine aye. Anything but "Math". 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Lone Striker
3 hours ago, Sarah O said:

Stopped reading after word 8 of the OP. 

 

Maths

😉 ...... well spotted.   However the OP is in fact using simple ARITHMETIC in his musings......  not Maths.    Hence the cliche should be "arithmetically  impossible to be caught" .

 

:greggy:

Link to post
Share on other sites
Perth to Paisley

Is it Mathematically or is it Arithmetically... this is big question!

 

The most obvious difference is that arithmetic is all about numbers and mathematics is all about theory

Link to post
Share on other sites
Perth to Paisley
2 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

😉 ...... well spotted.   However the OP is in fact using simple ARITHMETIC in his musings......  not Maths.    Hence the cliche should be "arithmetically  impossible to be caught" .

 

:greggy:

Great minds etc 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Too many variables to call when it will happen.  Realistically it's between Raith, Dundee and Dunfermline to challenge at the top.

 

If Raith win both of their games in hand, they will be 6 points behind us.  If they win one, and draw one, they will be 8 points behind, 2 draws is 10 points, a draw and a loss is 11 points, and 2 losses is obviously back to a 12 point lead.  Both Dundee and Dunfermline have a game in hand as well, so it could be a 9 or 10 point lead with either of them.

 

Raith play Dunfermline on 03/02, Dunfermline have all 3 remaining games against Dundee, Dundee play Raith on 24/04 and we play Dunfermline on 03/04 and Raith on 30/04.  I'm sure I've missed some of them in the middle of those dates.

 

There are 39 points to play for.  We would win the league based on sheer numbers, at the absolute earliest, in 6 more games, but it requires maximum points in all of our games, a draw in the Raith v Dunfermline game, and then a catastrophic run of results for everyone who isn't us.  Teams will take points off each other, and both teams can't lose, so it is highly unlikely that we can do it in 6 games.

 

On the other hand, if Raith go on a winning run, and effectively run parallel, but at arms length, to where we are just now, it will obviously go on a bit longer.

 

Realistically, assuming we don't have a shock run of shite results, we are likely to win the league in 8 or 9 more games.

Edited by tian447
Link to post
Share on other sites
hughesie27
20 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

Completely pointless exercise. Far too many variables to try and narrow it down to 1 game.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Restonbabe
4 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Completely pointless exercise. Far too many variables to try and narrow it down to 1 game.

And here is me thinking this forum is exactly for this sort of discussion! 

 

Silly me 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Footballfirst
  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Raith 12 21 45 66
Dunfermline 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
QOTS 13 14 42 56
ICT 10 13 51 64
Arbroath 13 10 42 52
Alloa 13 8 42 50
Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets just get to 75% of all fixtures having been fulfilled.

 

The rest will take care of itself.

Link to post
Share on other sites
SwindonJambo

As they say in America,

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts,

every day would be Christmas.

 

13 games left. Anything can happen. Let's hope Craig Gordon stays fit. Without him we could easily have lost on Saturday.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
schillaci
1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:
  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Raith 12 21 45 66
Dunfermline 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
QOTS 13 14 42 56
ICT 10 13 51 64
Arbroath 13 10 42 52
Alloa 13 8 42 50

So we are not even clear of relegation yet?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Footballfirst
4 minutes ago, schillaci said:

So we are not even clear of relegation yet?

I meant to add that to my earlier post.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Johnny Sandiego
1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:
  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Raith 12 21 45 66
Dunfermline 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
QOTS 13 14 42 56
ICT 10 13 51 64
Arbroath 13 10 42 52
Alloa 13 8 42 50

 

Thats a good visual. So technically we need 11 wins and a draw as it stands. Raith wont win every game (neither will we) so im going to guess 20th March away to Arbroath, which ironically was the same weekend in 2015 when we secured the last promotion.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Fort Vallance

No idea how old the OP is or how long they've been watching Hearts. But should know by now nothing we ever do is straight forward. Yeah, we'll go up but probably take a scrappy draw in the last game to clinch it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
jambonian
On 31/01/2021 at 17:14, Restonbabe said:

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

 

Away to Ayr will be hard. QoS away will be tough as well. I wouldn't be guaranteeing 6/6 from them but maybe 3 points slightly more so against QoS. Morton at home should be 3 points, away to Inverness.....again, no guarantees of 3 points. It'll depend on what Inverness team turns up on the day. Could be an easy 3 points , a slog winning 1-0 or draw. Three away games from the four are tough but, if we can get though these ones with the majority of points then i'd be more confident when Dundee and Ayr Utd return to Tynie. Win them and it's as good as over. Three very crucial away games this month, let's hope the players are aware of that and up for it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Interestingly we haven't drawn yet. Have we ever gone a full season without registering a draw?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Jambo-Fox
1 hour ago, JJ93 said:

Interestingly we haven't drawn yet. Have we ever gone a full season without registering a draw?

Oh dear, how can Hearts expect to be promoted if they’re not ‘top drawer’?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Tommy Brown
7 hours ago, JJ93 said:

Interestingly we haven't drawn yet. Have we ever gone a full season without registering a draw?

A point I made on another thread.

We have shared the points with our main 3 rivals.

Thankfully we have won all our others, similar to our last Championship title.

Our rivals have slipped up against the rest. It certainly helps winning even when you perform below par.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/02/2021 at 21:31, Fort Vallance said:

No idea how old the OP is or how long they've been watching Hearts. But should know by now nothing we ever do is straight forward. Yeah, we'll go up but probably take a scrappy draw in the last game to clinch it.

In 1979/80 we were promoted after a 1-1 home draw with Berwick Rangers (Frank Liddell scored).  We then won the league by beating Airdrie (Sandy Clark included) 1-0 with Frank Liddell's other goal that season.

 

In Eric Brown's pub afterwards we all looked at each other and agreed - we're going straight back down, which was hardly Nostradamus-like a prediction 😄

Link to post
Share on other sites

If this was one of the Old Firm doing this at this stage if the season, and with our points difference (6 points if Raith win games on hand),  I’d be calling them arrogant and self entitled.   Don’t get me wrong,  confident we’ll win comfortably but this chat is way too soon for me.  

Edited by Gmcjambo
Link to post
Share on other sites
Fort Vallance
5 hours ago, JTJ said:

In 1979/80 we were promoted after a 1-1 home draw with Berwick Rangers (Frank Liddell scored).  We then won the league by beating Airdrie (Sandy Clark included) 1-0 with Frank Liddell's other goal that season.

 

In Eric Brown's pub afterwards we all looked at each other and agreed - we're going straight back down, which was hardly Nostradamus-like a prediction 😄

Eric Browns pub. That's a blast from the past. Is that the Kebabish now ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Fort Vallance said:

Eric Browns pub. That's a blast from the past. Is that the Kebabish now ?

A bit along that block towards the Co-Op. Eric used to put bands on - another live music venue that has disappeared!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...