Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league

[rudeskaboyuk]

As has already been pointed out. Thank christ it is only a 27 games league this season. 

That's what gonna get us over final line without  the bottle really crashing. 

[Saint Jambo]

Getting back to when we can mathematically win the league (and away from some people's dark fantasies about Hearts going on a long losing run, while Raith or Dundee go on a long winning run)...

 

Tonight's result pushed the earliest we can win the league back from next Tuesday to a week on Saturday (10 April). Two wins would definitely do it. 4 points would only be good enough to win it against Alloa if Raith dropped points at home to Arbroath and Dundee dropped points away to Ayr or home to Morton.

 

Tuesday 13th April when we don't play but Dundee are away to Dunfemline and Raith are away to Queen of the South now looks a pretty good bet for us to cross the line.

[Saint Jambo]

10 minutes ago, rudeskaboyuk said:

As has already been pointed out. Thank christ it is only a 27 games league this season. 

That's what gonna get us over final line without  the bottle really crashing. 

 

Only if you think that the last two games are going to suddenly become the long lasting form of both Hearts and one of Raith or Dundee. Over any other recent timeframe neither team has been gaining on us at any great speed. If you take the last 7 games as about the most favourable to Dundee they have still only gained 3 points on us. At that rate they'd need it to be a 45 game season to catch us.

 

Sure if you just focus on the last two games and we continue to average 0.5 points a game and they continue to average 3 points a game and kept that going over the rest of a 36 game season then they'd really run away with the league. It seems a really sound argument and definitely something worth considering for those who take enjoyment in wallowing in how bad we are.

 

Most people seem to agree that just winning the league is not good enough, so not sure why people feel the need to develop these wild scenarios to convince themselves that somehow we are lucky that we are going to win the league. We're not lucky. We are the best team in the league. The other teams really aren't very good. It's ok to accept those facts and still think Neilson isn't doing a good job.

[Thomaso]

1 hour ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

We've not lost back-to-back league games all season. The Brora and QotS games are the only time we've lost back to back games in all competition. Our longest run without a win is 3 games. The fact some people are seriously talking about us finishing the season with 6 league defeates is ridiculous.

 

In their hatred of Neilson, some fans have lost all grip on reality.

Its not hatred - it’s totally lack of faith in Neilson!

[Thomaso]

21 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

Only if you think that the last two games are going to suddenly become the long lasting form of both Hearts and one of Raith or Dundee. Over any other recent timeframe neither team has been gaining on us at any great speed. If you take the last 7 games as about the most favourable to Dundee they have still only gained 3 points on us. At that rate they'd need it to be a 45 game season to catch us.

 

Sure if you just focus on the last two games and we continue to average 0.5 points a game and they continue to average 3 points a game and kept that going over the rest of a 36 game season then they'd really run away with the league. It seems a really sound argument and definitely something worth considering for those who take enjoyment in wallowing in how bad we are.

 

Most people seem to agree that just winning the league is not good enough, so not sure why people feel the need to develop these wild scenarios to convince themselves that somehow we are lucky that we are going to win the league. We're not lucky. We are the best team in the league. The other teams really aren't very good. It's ok to accept those facts and still think Neilson isn't doing a good job.

Basically we will win the league because we are less shite that the shite teams below us!

[gregzy2k7]

I previously said that we would win the league with 3 or 4 games left, its looking more and more likely that might even be less than that.

We still need a win imo to secure it and i for one can't see one coming in these last 5 fixtures. Its just depressing following us at the minute, i hope big change is coming in the summer.

[Boris]

7 hours ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

We've not lost back-to-back league games all season. The Brora and QotS games are the only time we've lost back to back games in all competition. Our longest run without a win is 3 games. The fact some people are seriously talking about us finishing the season with 6 league defeates is ridiculous.

 

In their hatred of Neilson, some fans have lost all grip on reality.

Hatred? Maybe they've just seen us play in those last few games?

It may be ridiculous, but so was talking about Brora beating us.

We've been rotten recently, and looking at the fixtures coming up, anything could happen.

Any team would fancy their chances against us right now.

[Sherbet]

Raith have arbroath alloa and us at home

 Poss 9 points. Think we def need more points

[soonbe110]

9 hours ago, Thomaso said:

If we lost that goal advantage and a 10 point lead it would go down as the worst ever collapse of our Club!

It would fit perfectly on Neilson’s CV with the Club’s worst ever SC result, and worst ever European result!

Do you honestly believe there is any chance of that happening?  

[Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine]

So if we win at the weekend and Raith lose, this hellscape of a season can be finally be over. Would be great to get the league wrapped up so we can give game time to youngsters who haven't had much of a sniff this season, like Shay Logan, Steven Naismith and GMS.

[fast_blood]

7 hours ago, Thomaso said:

Basically we will win the league because we are less shite that the shite teams below us!

 

Thats generally how football works mate. Celtic made Rangers life very easy this season. We won the championship last time because we were consistent and the teams below us weren't. 

[soonbe110]

1 hour ago, Sherbet said:

Raith have arbroath alloa and us at home

 Poss 9 points. Think we def need more points

They only have us and Arbroath at home. Three of their last four away from home. Still to visit Dens and Palmerston. They have only won 4/11 away league games this season so clearly don’t travel well. Would be surprised if pick up as many as 9 prior to playing us 

[Sherbet]

22 minutes ago, soonbe110 said:

They only have us and Arbroath at home. Three of their last four away from home. Still to visit Dens and Palmerston. They have only won 4/11 away league games this season so clearly don’t travel well. Would be surprised if pick up as many as 9 prior to playing us 

Sorry  alloa away.  Still too close for comfort

[JWL]

I really hope we win it when we aren't actually playing. We can then get in touch with the team we are due to play next and ask them not to bother with any guard of honour.

[kingantti1874]

9 hours ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

We've not lost back-to-back league games all season. The Brora and QotS games are the only time we've lost back to back games in all competition. Our longest run without a win is 3 games. The fact some people are seriously talking about us finishing the season with 6 league defeates is ridiculous.

 

In their hatred of Neilson, some fans have lost all grip on reality.

Are you saying it’s all good? , because we’ve not lost back to back games against a junior team and at home to a diddy team that often. 😆

[Thomaso]

1 hour ago, soonbe110 said:

Do you honestly believe there is any chance of that happening?  

Did you honestly think there was a chance of Hearts losing to a part time Highland league team who hadn’t played for 10 weeks and hardly trained......

[Thomaso]

58 minutes ago, fast_blood said:

 

Thats generally how football works mate. Celtic made Rangers life very easy this season. We won the championship last time because we were consistent and the teams below us weren't. 

You totally devalue the performance of our team last time we won the championship - we scored a narrow load of goals and some of our football was sensational.

[fast_blood]

8 minutes ago, Thomaso said:

You totally devalue the performance of our team last time we won the championship - we scored a narrow load of goals and some of our football was sensational.

Nice of you to make that assumption. The fact remains we were consistent and the rest weren't. Our performances against rangers and Hibs (even in the games we won against them) were not good. The lesser teams did not sit in as much as some have done this season either. We did however have players that season that were willing to pass and move, something we have seen very little of this season. 

 

Going back to your original point though, you can only win the games you play in and its up to the other teams to step up and show consistency. Makes you wonder what might have happened last time around if ozturk's effort against hibs went sky high. 

[Hagar the Horrible]

Personally I don’t think any of the 3 team will even match our current points tally.  All 3 teams have to beat QoS who themselves have desires on the play-offs.

 

The case for:

Raith Rovers: their challenge has brought it down to just 10 points, they  are running out of games, and do so they have to win all to catch 10 points. Thus  5 x 2-0 victories and we lose 5 x 2-0 then the goal difference is negated. Therefor they have to win 3 out of 5 on the road, beat QoS, Dundee and us, that is a big ask, and are just as likely to drop point points against relegation battlers Alloa and Arbroath.  My bet they get a max of 8 points from 15…..44 in total.

 

Dundee: They like Raith can still reach a max of 51 points. To do so would have to win 4 from six on the road, and six games is too many to win all, this is where points in the bag is everything.  Dundee have to beat Raith Rovers and Dunfermline thus ruling pretty much their challenge out. QoS and ICT play them with both wishing that play-off place, huge ask.  At best I can see them getting 12 points reaching 45, still not enough. 41 will be their tally.

 

Dunfermline: To even keep the dream alive they have to beat us on Saturday. But let’s keep it real, even they know now they are playing for a play-off place but are currently out of those slots, so their dilemma is they have to beat us, then hope we beat ICT and Raith, to overtake them and stay in the play-offs, and the irony is those 2 wins would hand us the league. So in essence their title challenge is gone after last night’s thumping.  They’re only 8 point off the play-offs at the bottom. But their season has been re-assessed.  My prediction 9 points which will not give them that slot, but crucially they will need to beat Dundee for that.  39 max points.

 

QoS & ICT the battle of the TLA’s both have designs on the play-offs and QoS have to play Raith, the Pars and Dundee, they will take points away, and as such they are our insurance policy. ICT have Dundee to play and by doing us that favour perhaps wining at home against ICT might not be our first priority if the league is over by then.

 

Final League table:

Hearts 53

Raith 44

Dundee 41

QoS 41

ICT 40

Dunfermline 39

Ayr 30

Morton 29

Arbroath 26

Alloa 22

Edited March 31, 2021 by Hagar the Horrible

[Saint Jambo]

1 hour ago, kingantti1874 said:

Are you saying it’s all good? , because we’ve not lost back to back games against a junior team and at home to a diddy team that often. 😆

 

Well done. You managed to find one of my few posts where I failed to add the caveat for simpletons that you can both believe that things aren't all good and that Neilson should be sacked, while ar the same time recognising that Hearts aren't about to go on a run of 6 defeats in a row while Raith win 7 in a row. Some of us can hold two thoughts in our head at a time.

[Hagar the Horrible]

It is and should be a first, that a manager gets sacked after winning the league, because the manner in which it was done has been so poor.  I Think AB thinks this will all blow over once the league is won, but we have little or no chance against any of those sides

[kingantti1874]

20 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

Well done. You managed to find one of my few posts where I failed to add the caveat for simpletons that you can both believe that things aren't all good and that Neilson should be sacked, while ar the same time recognising that Hearts aren't about to go on a run of 6 defeats in a row while Raith win 7 in a row. Some of us can hold two thoughts in our head at a time.

Where did I say we wouldn’t win the league? 

 

Note: when you attempt to insult someone’s intelligence it’s usually a good idea to check grammar and spelling. It can make you look a bit foolish. 

[Hectormasson]

13 hours ago, Tatlock said:

Especially if we keep losing and Raith keep scoring they’ve cut into our gd alreadybtonight😳

I always feel that there's a performance in the hearts teams , no matter how bad they play, but I'm not so sure with this bunch of bottlers,  think neilson will go out and be too cautious again, which could be dangerous, one thing though I do think dunfmline s shite spell will be over now   and Robbie will state this before we play them on Saturday,  'to cover himself in case of another bad result,    

[Sherbet]

2 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Personally I don’t think any of the 3 team will even match our current points tally.  All 3 teams have to beat QoS who themselves have desires on the play-offs.

 

The case for:

Raith Rovers: their challenge has brought it down to just 10 points, they  are running out of games, and do so they have to win all to catch 10 points. Thus  5 x 2-0 victories and we lose 5 x 2-0 then the goal difference is negated. Therefor they have to win 3 out of 5 on the road, beat QoS, Dundee and us, that is a big ask, and are just as likely to drop point points against relegation battlers Alloa and Arbroath.  My bet they get a max of 8 points from 15…..44 in total.

 

Dundee: They like Raith can still reach a max of 51 points. To do so would have to win 4 from six on the road, and six games is too many to win all, this is where points in the bag is everything.  Dundee have to beat Raith Rovers and Dunfermline thus ruling pretty much their challenge out. QoS and ICT play them with both wishing that play-off place, huge ask.  At best I can see them getting 12 points reaching 45, still not enough. 41 will be their tally.

 

Dunfermline: To even keep the dream alive they have to beat us on Saturday. But let’s keep it real, even they know now they are playing for a play-off place but are currently out of those slots, so their dilemma is they have to beat us, then hope we beat ICT and Raith, to overtake them and stay in the play-offs, and the irony is those 2 wins would hand us the league. So in essence their title challenge is gone after last night’s thumping.  They’re only 8 point off the play-offs at the bottom. But their season has been re-assessed.  My prediction 9 points which will not give them that slot, but crucially they will need to beat Dundee for that.  39 max points.

 

QoS & ICT the battle of the TLA’s both have designs on the play-offs and QoS have to play Raith, the Pars and Dundee, they will take points away, and as such they are our insurance policy. ICT have Dundee to play and by doing us that favour perhaps wining at home against ICT might not be our first priority if the league is over by then.

 

Final League table:

Hearts 53

Raith 44

Dundee 41

QoS 41

ICT 40

Dunfermline 39

Ayr 30

Morton 29

Arbroath 26

Alloa 22

Hope your assessment is correct  but where are we getting 7 points?

[black stump]

2 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

It is and should be a first, that a manager gets sacked after winning the league, because the manner in which it was done has been so poor.  I Think AB thinks this will all blow over once the league is won, but we have little or no chance against any of those sides

It would be very strange to sack a league-winning manager and I cant see it happening.

 

 I think he will be given the first third of next season to see how it goes.

 

hope not, but....

[TyphoonJambo]

2 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

It is and should be a first, that a manager gets sacked after winning the league, because the manner in which it was done has been so poor.  I Think AB thinks this will all blow over once the league is won, but we have little or no chance against any of those sides

There's a famous clip of Alex Ferguson rippin the shit out of Aberdeen after they won the cup. He was raging at the manner in which they played. 

That's 180 degrees away from the standard expectations and performance justifications we're getting from our management. 

[Restonbabe]

**** me. 

The doormongering on this thread is embarrassing. 

Yes we lost two league games in a row.  Yes the performances of late have been nothing short of disgraceful. 

 

However in football your only as good as your last performance. All hearts have to do is turn on the style and destroy a team 5-0 and it will be rectified. 

the players and fans need a confidence boost. Only way to do this is turn up and perform. 

 

Is there a crisis at the club at the moment? No I don't think so. The fans deserve better. Some fans have delusions of grandeur. 

 

Fwiw I believe Robbie isn't the man to take us forwards. He was a safe option to get us out of the league at the time. The performances under his stewardship hasn't been good enough for this football club. Robbie more than anyone will know this. 

 

It's another catastrophic lesson for Ann budge in the runnings of a football club (not department) 

 

Time is also up for her also. 

 

Just think...... Surley it can't get any worse. Can it? 

[Tatlock]

I am still mentally scarred from the 1986 final day and unless we win our next game to put pressure on the chasers I fear a total collapse. Of course we might win all our games from now on🥴🥴🥴

[jambonian]

He needs to go out and attack Dunfermline on Saturday. They showed against Raith last night that they struggle if the opposition is in their face. Raith ran them ragged. I actually thought the Raith players looked very fit. They were still chasing lost causes in injury time even though they were 5-1 up. Someone on the commentary said that they are all pretty young lads that fight for each other ( a dig at Hearts i thought at the time). Anyway, If Neilson hasn't learnt to go all out attack against Dunfermline (IF he even bothered to watch the game) then there's no hope for him.

[Thomaso]

12 minutes ago, jambonian said:

He needs to go out and attack Dunfermline on Saturday. They showed against Raith last night that they struggle if the opposition is in their face. Raith ran them ragged. I actually thought the Raith players looked very fit. They were still chasing lost causes in injury time even though they were 5-1 up. Someone on the commentary said that they are all pretty young lads that fight for each other ( a dig at Hearts i thought at the time). Anyway, If Neilson hasn't learnt to go all out attack against Dunfermline (IF he even bothered to watch the game) then there's no hope for him.

You know Neilson will not go all out attack - it’s just not in his makeup I’m afraid. 😏

[jambonian]

Just now, Thomaso said:

You know Neilson will not go all out attack - it’s just not in his makeup I’m afraid. 😏

 

Yes, i know he won't. He'll do the usual and pass and pass and pass and pass back and across the defence or goalie.......zzz! 

Dunfermline should be dreading this game. They just got skuddied by Raith, their confidence should be fragile so i expect they'll be cautious at first. They'll be fearful of losing an early goal so if Hearts do go down the tippy-tappy, side-to-side passing route with no attacking flair they'll walk straight into Dunfermline's hands. Their confidence will grow and we'll try to contain and walk away with a point if we can. 

[Thomaso]

1 minute ago, jambonian said:

 

Yes, i know he won't. He'll do the usual and pass and pass and pass and pass back and across the defence or goalie.......zzz! 

Dunfermline should be dreading this game. They just got skuddied by Raith, their confidence should be fragile so i expect they'll be cautious at first. They'll be fearful of losing an early goal so if Hearts do go down the tippy-tappy, side-to-side passing route with no attacking flair they'll walk straight into Dunfermline's hands. Their confidence will grow and we'll try to contain and walk away with a point if we can. 

Agreed - we’ve all read the same old script!

[Footballfirst]

Limp..... trip....... stumble ...... fall ..........................finishing line➡️........ 🏁 

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	23	47	12	59	2.04	55.17
Raith	22	36	15	51	1.64	44.18
Dundee	21	33	18	51	1.57	42.43
Dunfermline	22	31	15	46	1.41	38.05
ICT	22	30	15	45	1.36	36.82
QOTS	22	30	15	45	1.36	36.82
Ayr	22	26	15	41	1.18	31.91
Morton	22	25	15	40	1.14	30.68
Arbroath	23	25	12	37	1.09	29.35
Alloa	23	18	12	30	0.78	21.13

[Ex member of the SaS]

On 31/03/2021 at 14:27, Restonbabe said:

**** me. 

The doormongering on this thread is embarrassing. 

Yes we lost two league games in a row.  Yes the performances of late have been nothing short of disgraceful. 

 

However in football your only as good as your last performance. All hearts have to do is turn on the style and destroy a team 5-0 and it will be rectified. 

the players and fans need a confidence boost. Only way to do this is turn up and perform. 

 

Is there a crisis at the club at the moment? No I don't think so. The fans deserve better. Some fans have delusions of grandeur. 

 

Fwiw I believe Robbie isn't the man to take us forwards. He was a safe option to get us out of the league at the time. The performances under his stewardship hasn't been good enough for this football club. Robbie more than anyone will know this. 

 

It's another catastrophic lesson for Ann budge in the runnings of a football club (not department) 

 

Time is also up for her also. 

 

Just think...... Surley it can't get any worse. Can it? 

You never know a nil nil with Dunfermline might be just that..... Oh wait!

[Restonbabe]

4 points required........

Hearts are absolutely hopeless 

[NLTFTh]

Could I dare say,  Hearts to h1b5 it.

I see nothing to the contrary.. Absolute Embarrassment.. 

[Dougie Masterton]

4 draws to get over the line #neilsonout

[flem]

Wrong thread. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by flem

[Saint Jambo]

3 minutes ago, Restonbabe said:

4 points required........

Hearts are absolutely hopeless 

 

Mathematically 5 points. The goal difference is better but actually if Raith were to win all their remaining games and we were to only pick up 4 points, it wouldn't actually take crazy scores to swing the goal difference to.

 

That said, I still expect us to win the league as I don't expect Raith or Dundee to win all remaining games.

 

Can no longer win the league at home to Alloa. Could win it the next day, but only if Raith drop points at home to Arbroath. Dundee would also have to drop points this Tuesday away to Ayr or home to Morton on the Saturday.

 

More likely dates to win the league now look like Tuesday 13th when we don't play but Dundee are away to Dunfermline and Raith away to Queen of the South. Or Saturday 17th when we're away to Morton (and Raith play Alloa, Dundee play ICT).

 

Final thing to say mathematically from today is Dunfermline can't catch us now so lowest possible finish is third. Good times.

[jambopilms]

This season was meant to bring back a bit of swagger and confidence. We will go up in a worse state than we came down.

[N Lincs Jambo]

Don’t think we’ll totally H1b5 it but looking at the remaining fixtures for us, Raith and Dundee, unless we start actually winning games I can see the winning margin only being a point or two. Fortunately Raith still have to play Dundee.

[Midloth_Iain]

24th April 

[asjambo]

50 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

Mathematically 5 points. The goal difference is better but actually if Raith were to win all their remaining games and we were to only pick up 4 points, it wouldn't actually take crazy scores to swing the goal difference to.

 

That said, I still expect us to win the league as I don't expect Raith or Dundee to win all remaining games.

 

Can no longer win the league at home to Alloa. Could win it the next day, but only if Raith drop points at home to Arbroath. Dundee would also have to drop points this Tuesday away to Ayr or home to Morton on the Saturday.

 

More likely dates to win the league now look like Tuesday 13th when we don't play but Dundee are away to Dunfermline and Raith away to Queen of the South. Or Saturday 17th when we're away to Morton (and Raith play Alloa, Dundee play ICT).

 

Final thing to say mathematically from today is Dunfermline can't catch us now so lowest possible finish is third. Good times.

Morton game on 17th will have to be rearranged as they will be involved in next round of Scottish cup that weekend. 

[graygo]

[Saint Jambo]

2 minutes ago, asjambo said:

Morton game on 17th will have to be rearranged as they will be involved in next round of Scottish cup that weekend. 

 

Good point. I guess same true of the Dundee ICT game. With Raith away to Alloa still possible we could win it that day if that is the first time they drop points but far less likely.

 

I would think it would make sense to bring the Morton game forward to Tuesday 13th as if they win on the 17th the next round is a week after so another fixture to rearrange.

[Penrices left boot]

1 hour ago, jambopilms said:

This season was meant to bring back a bit of swagger and confidence. We will go up in a worse state than we came down.

 

No we won't.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Dunfermline need a couple of results to be safe from relegation play off.

[wavydavy]

1 hour ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

Don’t think we’ll totally H1b5 it but looking at the remaining fixtures for us, Raith and Dundee, unless we start actually winning games I can see the winning margin only being a point or two. Fortunately Raith still have to play Dundee.

 

Lets face it though we are giving it a good ****ing go.

[graygo]

The league is as good as over, none of the other teams will catch us 

 

[Sherbet]

April.22