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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


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spirt of 98
18 hours ago, Armageddon said:


No we don’t, we’re utterly dreadful and only being saved by our huge financial advantage and training facility set up  during a pandemic.  Every Premiership club would pump us.

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

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wavydavy
10 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

 

Unfortunately this is so very true. Yet another overhaul required.

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Andyp1874
36 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

Totally agree. Not many I would keep to be honest. 

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Ex member of the SaS

I know the league will be won ( and probably already is ) and fairly easily too, but until it's mathematically impossible to be over taken, I won't be putting out the flags. Dunfermline have two in hand plus the seven games left. That means they can ( no matter how unlikely ) get to 57 points. So until we have that many or Dunfermline lose or draw that is the figure I will be going by.

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Tommy Brown
12 minutes ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

I know the league will be won ( and probably already is ) and fairly easily too, but until it's mathematically impossible to be over taken, I won't be putting out the flags. Dunfermline have two in hand plus the seven games left. That means they can ( no matter how unlikely ) get to 57 points. So until we have that many or Dunfermline lose or draw that is the figure I will be going by.

Want to beat Dunfermline or a least not get beat.

Proverbial 6 pointer

As with Raith also.

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GinRummy
2 hours ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

I know the league will be won ( and probably already is ) and fairly easily too, but until it's mathematically impossible to be over taken, I won't be putting out the flags. Dunfermline have two in hand plus the seven games left. That means they can ( no matter how unlikely ) get to 57 points. So until we have that many or Dunfermline lose or draw that is the figure I will be going by.

So the figure you’re going by is Dunfermline winning all their games. That will not happen. I’m not going to check but I doubt if they’ve won even three in a row all season. 

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jamboinglasgow
6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

So the figure you’re going by is Dunfermline winning all their games. That will not happen. I’m not going to check but I doubt if they’ve won even three in a row all season. 

 

They haven't won consecutive league games since the end of October.

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GinRummy
4 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

They haven't won consecutive league games since the end of October.

Thanks 👍

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No team in the league under us will get 45 points league is finished all but them fighting for the playoffs they will drop points against each other all finished Barr the leftovers

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Armageddon
5 hours ago, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 


Thank you.

 

Last time we looked like someone who had overdressed for the party, a class above, now we are just so far ahead because the others a sooooo bad at taking points off each other.

 

For years we always need the annual overhaul, other teams are tweaks here and there, but us, we recruit horrifically and run a pointless academy.

 

We should not recruit another player for 2 seasons and force the young boys through, force the coaches to develop the player types we’re spunking cash on.

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Restonbabe
23 hours ago, hmfc_liam06 said:

Win the next two and I reckon we win the league at East End Park.

So as I predicted!!? 

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upgotheheads

 

By my reckoning we need 12 points from the last 7 games to be sure of winning this league, assuming Dunfermline win every game and manage to improve their GD ratio by 20 goals over us. I think we can start to relax.

 

 

 

I posted the above on a different thread earlier if anyone thinks it's familiar. We should be able to have a count-down every time a game involving Raith or Dunfermline is played. I don't think any other team is remotely a threat.

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cookieboy
22 hours ago, soonbe110 said:

Hope not because that will mean we lost to Brora Rangers. 

??

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Working out us winning the league is like an old school arithmetic question. I had no idea then and I have absolutely no idea now how you work it out. Will stick with the lazy option (ie this thread). Keep up the good work - I love the various connotations 👍 

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The league is over.

 

It’s won.

 

Capiche?

 

 

 

 

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I P Knightley
On 13/03/2021 at 17:28, JamboBoy said:

All teams nearest us are actually nearer to the relegation play off spot (9 Pts) than topping our points total which is 15 pts away. This really is such a brutal league to play in, in more ways than one! 

The second placed team is closer to the bottom of the league than it is to the top.

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BarneyBattles

I hope it's confirmed sooner rather than later but have to agree with those saying it's already over. 

 

To overhaul us Dunfermline would have to win their two games in hand then also win ten points more than we do out of the remaining seven games / 21 points available. Raith would have to win 11 points more than us and Dundee 13 points.

 

So one of these teams would have to go on a miraculous run of games whilst we simultaneously suffer an horrendous slump. 

 

If we pick up nine more points outwith the Raith and Dundermline games, they'd have to win pretty much every game they have left and I can't see any of them winning nine games in a row. 

 

Not going to happen.  

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17 hours ago, soonbe110 said:

No league game on 3 April if we are still in cup. 

OR (if we lost to Brora) the Pars beat Morton in their second round tie (same day we play Brora) giving us a free Saturday. Personally I'm hoping we play Stranraer that day 😄 

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soonbe110
31 minutes ago, JTJ said:

OR (if we lost to Brora) the Pars beat Morton in their second round tie (same day we play Brora) giving us a free Saturday. Personally I'm hoping we play Stranraer that day 😄 

If we are not playing Stranraer that day kickback will go into a meltdown the likes of which we haven’t seen and one from which it might not recover. 

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Hagar the Horrible
On 14/03/2021 at 18:41, upgotheheads said:

 

By my reckoning we need 12 points from the last 7 games to be sure of winning this league, assuming Dunfermline win every game and manage to improve their GD ratio by 20 goals over us. I think we can start to relax.

 

 

 

I posted the above on a different thread earlier if anyone thinks it's familiar. We should be able to have a count-down every time a game involving Raith or Dunfermline is played. I don't think any other team is remotely a threat.

No if we Win the next 3 games its official as we play the pars. They cannot catch us if they lose to us and we win any 2 other games. Even if the pars beat everyone else then they cant catch us. Only 1 of the 3 below us can catch us. They play each other. Chances are they wont match our current haul. Leaving us 7 games to pick up points. And if anyone can get max points its only going to be us

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upgotheheads
33 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

No if we Win the next 3 games its official as we play the pars. They cannot catch us if they lose to us and we win any 2 other games. Even if the pars beat everyone else then they cant catch us. Only 1 of the 3 below us can catch us. They play each other. Chances are they wont match our current haul. Leaving us 7 games to pick up points. And if anyone can get max points its only going to be us

 

Um...  but if they beat us, and everyone else, and we don't get 12 points from the other games, and they can overturn our huge gd advantage... I don't claim to be a mathematician but in my post I did say that Dunfermline had to beat everyone, including us obviously. If we can get 12 points from the other games then they have to overturn the gd as well. I probably should have said that we need 13 points from the next seven games. I'm not convinced we can beat Dunfermline away, we haven't managed it so far, however I seriously doubt that Dunfermline will not drop points in their last nine games, they've dropped six in the last five.

I think we'll be home and dry with three game to spare.

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On 14/03/2021 at 12:35, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

Get a grip 

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ollie2004
On 14/03/2021 at 13:29, Ex member of the SaS said:

I know the league will be won ( and probably already is ) and fairly easily too, but until it's mathematically impossible to be over taken, I won't be putting out the flags. Dunfermline have two in hand plus the seven games left. That means they can ( no matter how unlikely ) get to 57 points. So until we have that many or Dunfermline lose or draw that is the figure I will be going by.

I think their two games in hand are Raith and Scumdee at home. Raith play ICT tomorrow night at home so chances are both likely to drop points IMO.

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Hopefully we win it with games to spare and can give some of the younger lads a run out. Keep the first team guys fresh for the Scottish Cup and hopefully we'll get a few SPL sides to test ourselves against. 

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alwaysthereinspirit
On 14/03/2021 at 08:35, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

With your future seeing glasses couldn’t you win the lottery weekly and buy us out of our yo-yo slump. We could be Scotland’s Man City.

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BudgeUp
On 14/03/2021 at 22:39, Morgan said:

The league is over.

 

It’s won.

 

Capiche?

 

 

 

 

Pretty much where I'm at.

 

This season should be treated as a non event. We've won ugly but won. In the championship without fans that's a result.

 

Other teams fans may not have tolerated negative tactics, and we'd have surely played better at home with a crowd.

 

It's won, were going up. We as fans didn't really lose out cos we couldn't go. It's a net "meh" as a season. Probably been better than a mid table garbage season but not by much.

 

Onto next year.

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Smith's right boot
On 14/03/2021 at 12:35, spirt of 98 said:

Folk Hearts are murder at least the last time we were in this league we dominated it like an SPL team in the wrong league. This time we are just the best of a crap league, face facts we need change or we will be relegated again next year or finish bottom 6 which for the money pumped in is a shock. 

 

No facts to face there, just a load of wind and pish based on your opinion. 

 

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Smith's right boot
6 hours ago, BudgeUp said:

Pretty much where I'm at.

 

This season should be treated as a non event. We've won ugly but won. In the championship without fans that's a result.

 

Other teams fans may not have tolerated negative tactics, and we'd have surely played better at home with a crowd.

 

It's won, were going up. We as fans didn't really lose out cos we couldn't go. It's a net "meh" as a season. Probably been better than a mid table garbage season but not by much.

 

Onto next year.

 

 

At this rate, we'd have won the league more comfortably than utd and Hibs have done in recent years. 

In fact, rangers too. 

 

Agree 2nd part, teams particularly at home might have been encouraged to attack more if there was fans. 

 

On to next year, indeed! 

 

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soonbe110
On 14/03/2021 at 16:26, j1964m said:

No team in the league under us will get 45 points league is finished all but them fighting for the playoffs they will drop points against each other all finished Barr the leftovers

Correct answer. If any other team gets 45 points they will be well clear in second place. 

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jamboinglasgow
15 minutes ago, soonbe110 said:

Correct answer. If any other team gets 45 points they will be well clear in second place. 

 

Yup, if you look at the current points totals of Raith, Dunfermline and Dundee. They have now reach 2/3 of the season completed. Dunfermline on 30 have average 15 points every 9 games so would put them on course for 45 points. Raith on 29 points are 14.5 points every 9 games, so you argue again they are on course for around 45 points. Dundee on 27 have an average of 13.5 per 9 games so would be on course for 40.5 points.

 

Dunfermline did get 18 points in their first 9 games after getting 4 wins and a draw in their first 5 games (and in the 9 games had 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, a fantastic run.) So even if they had another amazing run of 9 games like in the first 9, that would still only put them at 48 points maximum, something which only requires us to really win our next game.

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Hagar the Horrible
12 hours ago, upgotheheads said:

 

Um...  but if they beat us, and everyone else, and we don't get 12 points from the other games, and they can overturn our huge gd advantage... I don't claim to be a mathematician but in my post I did say that Dunfermline had to beat everyone, including us obviously. If we can get 12 points from the other games then they have to overturn the gd as well. I probably should have said that we need 13 points from the next seven games. I'm not convinced we can beat Dunfermline away, we haven't managed it so far, however I seriously doubt that Dunfermline will not drop points in their last nine games, they've dropped six in the last five.

I think we'll be home and dry with three game to spare.

We have 2.2 ppg even for the remaining games that went to 1.5ppg its still won. The points remaining will be the minimum amount of points we win by. Its over. The rest are playing for the playoffs

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kingantti1874

Dunfermline we not win both games in hand. It will be over within 2 games, 3 at the very most.

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Harry Potter
2 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

Dunfermline we not win both games in hand. It will be over within 2 games, 3 at the very most.

Raith had a wee chance to bridge the gap, they managed 2 draws, they dont play Hearts every week, the only time they raise their game.

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One five

I think we may see teams coming at us a bit more in the last games , like Arbroath away as they need to get points on the board to stay in the league.

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soonbe110
50 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

Yup, if you look at the current points totals of Raith, Dunfermline and Dundee. They have now reach 2/3 of the season completed. Dunfermline on 30 have average 15 points every 9 games so would put them on course for 45 points. Raith on 29 points are 14.5 points every 9 games, so you argue again they are on course for around 45 points. Dundee on 27 have an average of 13.5 per 9 games so would be on course for 40.5 points.

 

Dunfermline did get 18 points in their first 9 games after getting 4 wins and a draw in their first 5 games (and in the 9 games had 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, a fantastic run.) So even if they had another amazing run of 9 games like in the first 9, that would still only put them at 48 points maximum, something which only requires us to really win our next game.

Yes, but add in the number of games those three have to play against each other and us in the remaining fixtures and I’d be really surprised if any of them get to 45 

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spirt of 98
2 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

No facts to face there, just a load of wind and pish based on your opinion. 

 

Thanks for your incredible insight. That’s what a football forum is about people giving their opinions and discussing them. May be you need to find another activity to fill your time! 

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spirt of 98
10 hours ago, alwaysthereinspirit said:

With your future seeing glasses couldn’t you win the lottery weekly and buy us out of our yo-yo slump. We could be Scotland’s Man City.

Really 

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upgotheheads
13 hours ago, Cruyff said:

Hopefully we win it with games to spare and can give some of the younger lads a run out. Keep the first team guys fresh for the Scottish Cup and hopefully we'll get a few SPL sides to test ourselves against. 

 

Yup

 

18 minutes ago, One five said:

I think we may see teams coming at us a bit more in the last games , like Arbroath away as they need to get points on the board to stay in the league.

 

We're in position now where just getting a point from  us will be no good to anyone else in any position in the league. Every team needs to win their games to avoid relegation or establish play-off places - it's one of the factors that makes the Championship a much better competition than the Premiership in my opinion. Alloa at the bottom could still theoretically finish second, so every game from now on is going to be an attack fest because winning three points will be much more important than just not losing. Hearts will benefit most from this situation, as we'll hopefully see on Saturday.

 

 

Just for fun I'm going to predict that we will officially be declared champions on 30th March after the Raith v Dunfermline match. Post you predictions here for bragging rights when it actually happens.

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One five
5 minutes ago, upgotheheads said:

 

Yup

 

 

We're in position now where just getting a point from  us will be no good to anyone else in any position in the league. Every team needs to win their games to avoid relegation or establish play-off places - it's one of the factors that makes the Championship a much better competition than the Premiership in my opinion. Alloa at the bottom could still theoretically finish second, so every game from now on is going to be an attack fest because winning three points will be much more important than just not losing. Hearts will benefit most from this situation, as we'll hopefully see on Saturday.

 

 

Just for fun I'm going to predict that we will officially be declared champions on 30th March after the Raith v Dunfermline match. Post you predictions here for bragging rights when it actually happens.

3rd April,  when we take 3 pts at Dunfermline 👍

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Smith's right boot
8 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

Thanks for your incredible insight. That’s what a football forum is about people giving their opinions and discussing them. May be you need to find another activity to fill your time! 

 

All fine, but don't state your opinion as fact, especially when predicting the future. 

 

It as you say - about opinions and mine is your facts were a lot of wind and pish. 

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jambopilms
1 hour ago, One five said:

I think we may see teams coming at us a bit more in the last games , like Arbroath away as they need to get points on the board to stay in the league.

I think the same, there is a chance we will be the least motivated team in the league.

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Smith's right boot
3 minutes ago, jambopilms said:

I think the same, there is a chance we will be the least motivated team in the league.

 

 

A sc run will help keep us focused. 

 

If we get knocked out of that, the the last 4/5 games could be difficult. Minds would be turned to next season no doubt. 

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One five
13 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

A sc run will help keep us focused. 

 

If we get knocked out of that, the the last 4/5 games could be difficult. Minds would be turned to next season no doubt. 

Don’t talk about getting knocked out of the sc before we have even kicked a ball in it 🙄, I’m looking forward to a good run in it 🤞

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Smith's right boot
1 minute ago, One five said:

Don’t talk about getting knocked out of the sc before we have even kicked a ball in it 🙄, I’m looking forward to a good run in it 🤞

 

We all are!

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One five
3 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

We all are!

Be nice for another final if we keep knocking on the door it will eventually open👍

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PapaShango

League is done, has been for months. No chance we are blowing the lead we have with the teams around us. Can probably afford to lose half the games left and still win it with points to spare. The teams at the top can't put a run together and they all still have to play each other. We will have it won after the QOTS game I think as I can see both Raith and Dunfermline dropping points in the games between then. 

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