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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


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A Shoreditch Heart
6 hours ago, JTJ said:

In 1979/80 we were promoted after a 1-1 home draw with Berwick Rangers (Frank Liddell scored).  We then won the league by beating Airdrie (Sandy Clark included) 1-0 with Frank Liddell's other goal that season.

 

In Eric Brown's pub afterwards we all looked at each other and agreed - we're going straight back down, which was hardly Nostradamus-like a prediction 😄

yeah we were pretty awful that 79/80 season, but Liddell's header in the last minute against Airdrie on the final game was so good.

 

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Mikey1874
12 minutes ago, A Shoreditch Heart said:

yeah we were pretty awful that 79/80 season, but Liddell's header in the last minute against Airdrie on the final game was so good.

 

 

Great goal. Great memory.

 

 

20210203_163502.jpg

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Cory McNamara
On 02/02/2021 at 15:31, JJ93 said:

Interestingly we haven't drawn yet. Have we ever gone a full season without registering a draw?

 

Yes, we did in 1895 - 1896 season, 4th with 11 wins and with Scottish Cup. There was 1 in 1894 - 1895 season, 15 wins and Heart of Midlothian is a champion.

 

20 draws in 1994, 44 games. 

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cookieboy
2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Great goal. Great memory.

 

 

20210203_163502.jpg

I thought he scored a diving header at the other end ? 

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Fort Vallance
2 hours ago, JTJ said:

A bit along that block towards the Co-Op. Eric used to put bands on - another live music venue that has disappeared!

About Maplins. Cheers.

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A Shoreditch Heart
1 hour ago, cookieboy said:

I thought he scored a diving header at the other end ? 

 

3 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Great goal. Great memory.

 

 

20210203_163502.jpg

 wow, amazing photo - I'm the background somewhere, just in front of the kiosk / tv gantry - lost a shoe in the celebrations

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Footballfirst

Latest projection with max available points

 

  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Dunfermline 14 24 39 63
Raith 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 13 14 42 56
Arbroath 14 11 39 50
Alloa 13 8 42 50
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5 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Great goal. Great memory.

 

 

20210203_163502.jpg

Is that Max Wall in goal for Airdrie? 

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davemclaren
3 hours ago, Fort Vallance said:

About Maplins. Cheers.

I’m sure it was where Kebabish is now. 😄

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Footballfirst
1 minute ago, JTJ said:

Yes, I think part of what's now Maplins 

Comet before Maplins

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50 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Latest projection with max available points

 

  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Dunfermline 14 24 39 63
Raith 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 13 14 42 56
Arbroath 14 11 39 50
Alloa 13 8 42 50

Nice work, FF, so 31 points from 13 games makes sure. We shouldn't settle for less. GD worth another point at the moment. Even if someone went on a freakish run you'd imagine somewhere around the 55 point mark will win the title.

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6 hours ago, A Shoreditch Heart said:

yeah we were pretty awful that 79/80 season, but Liddell's header in the last minute against Airdrie on the final game was so good.

 


That was the last game I went to with my old dad - happy memories.

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Fort Vallance

I see today's papers speculating when Sevco will have their first top tier title wrapped up. 6 games way apparently.

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17 hours ago, A Shoreditch Heart said:

yeah we were pretty awful that 79/80 season, but Liddell's header in the last minute against Airdrie on the final game was so good.

 

That's one of my best ever Tynecastle memories - was only a kid but just remember the carnage at the end!

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Using existing points per game, with Dunfermline being our closest challengers they have 24 points out of 14 games (1.71 point per game)- if this is projected to have similar return of results would give Dunfermline an expected points total of 46 points over he 27 games. Even if they improved to 2.3 points per game for the remaining 13 games would give them 54 points (highly unlikely they will win every single remaining game)

 

Using points per game for Hearts we would project to have 64 points at a current points per game average of 2.36 (again highly unlikely we will win every game). If we dropped to 1.9 points per game for the remainder of the season we would finish with 58 points.

 

So allowing for slippage from us and Dunfermline to have a fair improvement then we will win this league.

 

Reality is I believe that we win 8 of our remaining fixtures and we win the title 

 

Yes, all ifs and buts.......

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williamgerrard

13 games left. 39 points to play for 

 

Pars have 24 +39 =63pts 

 

As it stands 31points required

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soonbe110
5 minutes ago, williamgerrard said:

13 games left. 39 points to play for 

 

Pars have 24 +39 =63pts 

 

As it stands 31points required

High 50’s, maybe even as low as 55 will be plenty. 

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Montgomery Brewster
On 04/02/2021 at 12:46, Swimmer said:

Using existing points per game, with Dunfermline being our closest challengers they have 24 points out of 14 games (1.71 point per game)- if this is projected to have similar return of results would give Dunfermline an expected points total of 46 points over he 27 games. Even if they improved to 2.3 points per game for the remaining 13 games would give them 54 points (highly unlikely they will win every single remaining game)

 

Using points per game for Hearts we would project to have 64 points at a current points per game average of 2.36 (again highly unlikely we will win every game). If we dropped to 1.9 points per game for the remainder of the season we would finish with 58 points.

 

So allowing for slippage from us and Dunfermline to have a fair improvement then we will win this league.

 

Reality is I believe that we win 8 of our remaining fixtures and we win the title 

 

Yes, all ifs and buts.......

Correct. FTH

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kingantti1874

We will win the title on the 27th of March when we go 16 points clear of Dunfermline who will be in second.

 

 

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The Frenchman Returns
On 03/02/2021 at 21:43, Footballfirst said:

Latest projection with max available points

 

  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 14 33 39 72
Dunfermline 14 24 39 63
Raith 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 13 17 42 59
Morton 14 17 39 56
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 13 14 42 56
Arbroath 14 11 39 50
Alloa 13 8 42 50

Great graphics, could you update it as time goes by, cheers

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will-i-am-a-jambo
On 03/02/2021 at 21:43, Footballfirst said:

Latest projection with max available points

 

  Pl'd Pts Pts avail Max
Hearts 15 36 36 72
Dunfermline 14 24 39 63
Raith 13 21 42 63
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 14 17 39 56
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 13 14 42 56
Arbroath 14 11 39 50
Alloa 13 8 42 50

Updated

Edited by will-i-am-a-jambo
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jambopilms

To think this is what it's like for Rangers/ Celtic every season. Same financial advantage, win most weeks even if you play shit. Only thing to worry about is when and not if. Pity the Scottish cup has to include the premier teams.

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Awbdy Oot
26 minutes ago, jambopilms said:

To think this is what it's like for Rangers/ Celtic every season. Same financial advantage, win most weeks even if you play shit. Only thing to worry about is when and not if. Pity the Scottish cup has to include the premier teams.

 

Add in getting soft penalties for a full house. 😁

 

(ignore the one we should have got)

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Footballfirst
5 hours ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Great graphics, could you update it as time goes by, cheers

Updated after today's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max
Hearts 15 36 36 72
Raith 14 24 39 63
Dunfermline 15 24 36 60
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 15 17 36 53
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 14 14 39 53
Arbroath 15 14 36 50
Alloa 14 11 39 50
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Lone Striker
1 hour ago, RENE said:

So we only need 28 points.?

To guarantee we win it, yes.   In all likelihood, we'd win it at some point before we get another 28 points due to the challengers dropping points too.   

 

If we finish with 69 points or more, we'll beat our PPG from the 2014-15 season  (91 points from 36 games)

 

 

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David McCaig
On 06/02/2021 at 17:37, Footballfirst said:

Updated after today's games

 

  P Pts Avail Max
Hearts 15 36 36 72
Raith 14 24 39 63
Dunfermline 15 24 36 60
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 15 17 36 53
ICT 11 14 48 62
QOTS 14 14 39 53
Arbroath 15 14 36 50
Alloa 14 11 39 50

 

                        P PTS PPG 27 Games MAX
Hearts 15 36 2.40 64.80 72
Raith 14 24 1.71 46.29 63
Dunfermline 15 24 1.60 43.20 60
Dundee 13 20 1.54 41.54 62
Ayr 14 17 1.21 32.79 56
Morton 15 17 1.13 30.60 53
Inverness 11 14 1.27 34.36 62
Arbroath 15 14 0.93 25.20 50
QOTS 14 14 1.00 27.00 53
Alloa 14 11 0.79 21.21 50

 

I have updated this table slightly to show where teams current PPG would get them to after 27 games.

 

Based on this I would be surprised if 2nd place gathers more than 44 points, so ironically the huge virtual crowd at Inverness will probably be witnessing the game where we pick up the points that win us the league

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Footballfirst
  P Pts Avail Max
Hearts 16 37 33 70
Raith 14 24 39 63
Dunfermline 15 24 36 60
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 15 17 36 53
QOTS 15 15 36 51
ICT 11 14 48 62
Arbroath 15 14 36 50
Alloa 14 11 39 50
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heartmussel

Eleven games left,5 away Inverness,Arbroath,Dunfermline,Morton,Raith let’s win all our home games,not exactly the easiest of games there.Surely we can win a couple of games awy

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davemclaren
3 minutes ago, heartmussel said:

Eleven games left,5 away Inverness,Arbroath,Dunfermline,Morton,Raith let’s win all our home games,not exactly the easiest of games there.Surely we can win a couple of games awy

We’ve won away games already so I would assume we can. 

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gregzy2k7

I would guess when there is around 3/4 games left, we will probably win the league by around 10 points going by our current form imo.

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Cory McNamara

Rovers are drawing near

Dunfermline is not far behind

Better lock up your children and wife

Beside our woody and solid door Greenock shall fall first

 

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will-i-am-a-jambo
19 hours ago, Footballfirst said:
  P Pts Avail Max
Hearts 16 37 33 70
Raith 14 24 39 63
Dunfermline 15 24 36 60
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 15 17 36 53
QOTS 15 15 36 51
ICT 11 14 48 62
Arbroath 16 15 33 48
Alloa 15 12 36 48

Updated after today.

Edited by will-i-am-a-jambo
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will-i-am-a-jambo
1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

Arbroath should be above ICT

Sorry you are quite correct. I just kept the teams in the same positions as when you last posted. 

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will-i-am-a-jambo
19 hours ago, Footballfirst said:
  P Pts Avail Max
Hearts 16 37 33 70
Raith 14 24 39 63
Dunfermline 15 24 36 60
Dundee 13 20 42 62
Ayr 14 17 39 56
Morton 15 17 36 53
QOTS 15 15 36 51
Arbroath 16 15 33 48
ICT 11 14 48 62
Alloa 15 12 36 48

Amended with ICT and Arbroath swapped positions.

Edited by will-i-am-a-jambo
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Tommy Brown
On 03/02/2021 at 18:40, cookieboy said:

I thought he scored a diving header at the other end ? 

Remember posting a couple of years ago when seeing this photo.

My memory tells me it was a corner from the right wing, not the left. The photo must be wrong:lol:

I was heading for the exit at the school end. Celebrations were mental.

What a night.

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Weakened Offender
4 hours ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Can someone work out mathematically when we get rid of Neilson and Super Gran?

 

Pathetic. 

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