Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[coconut doug]

14 hours ago, ArcticJambo said:

Their consistently high numbers transfers into ~30 deaths a day.  I wouldn't have thought that was not acceptable to those who have the ability to initiate change.

 

Consistently high numbers and "upward trajectory" are not the same.

[coconut doug]

13 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Rader sounding. Someone has criticised the SG 

 

But, but, I'm not an SNP follower 

 

I'm challenging the accuracy of the statement not defending the SNP. You do accept the comment was inaccurate, don't you?

[ArcticJambo]

7 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Consistently high numbers and "upward trajectory" are not the same.

Well Duh!  You don't get it, I'll leave it at that! 

[the general]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

This.

 

What goes in must come out, and in terms of city centre there is CCTV everywhere to catch you.

 

Not forgetting its getting colder and drinking cold beer in a cold temperature isn't much fun, and tends to affect your bladder more frequently.

 

Was really mild yesterday but you are obviously correct

[coconut doug]

1 hour ago, ArcticJambo said:

Well Duh!  You don't get it, I'll leave it at that! 

 

Humour me and explain what it is that I don't get.

[coconut doug]

12 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I honestly don't think hospitality makes any significant difference to case numbers. Official figures relating to hospitality all show that reported cases are around 3 or 4% of the total. That simply doesn't justify their closure and there isn't a furlough scheme that could ever make up the losses incurred by hospitality businesses. 

Even in lockdown, public transport,  schools, supermarkets etc will stay open so human interaction cannot be avoided, nor should it be. Govts must know where it is spreading and it will be feckless people meeting in houses for drinks, parties etc. If hospitality is closed, house parties will increase.

There is no comparison with Care homes, hospitals etc as, by definition, social distancing is impractical.  People in these institutional settings are also more susceptible to catching any infections than hospitality customers. Test, test, test in these places, staff, visitors, patients etc and cases will surely decrease

 

I totally believe that you don't think hospitality makes any significant difference that's why i've asked you to explain why infection rates in England are about 50% higher than Scotland when the only major difference over the period has been more stringent hospitality control in Scotland.

           Human interactions will presumably be similar as people go about their business in similar ways in both England and Scotland. You are suggesting that feckless people are having house parties because hospitality is closed and that is leading to more cases because people are socialising in each other's homes rather than in heavily regulated hospitality venues. Surely if that were true we would have higher cases than England.

    I'm surprised that you say you are  aware of a study that shows 3 -4 % of infections from hospitality and yet in the previous post tell us that you wouldn't trust any government figures. I think this is a very old statistic relating to a very specific circumstance but if you can show different then please do.

   I wonder why Social distancing in care homes is impractical while not being so in hospitality. Does this mean that you think the spread of Covid in care homes was inevitable and that all the accusations and bile you have been directing at the government are misplaced? Surely people in some care homes have less of a chance of catching Covid as they are not getting visitors and staff are more clued up on protective measures. In hospitality venues, hundreds could be sharing the same space and a much higher throughput of potential spreaders. Why are people in care homes more likely to catch Covid? how do you know this?

[Nucky Thompson]

26 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

 Why are people in care homes more likely to catch Covid? how do you know this?

A lot of residents in care homes have dementia and don't understand social distancing rules. They tend to wander around inside their buildings.

It's illegal to lock them inside their rooms

[coconut doug]

56 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

A lot of residents in care homes have dementia and don't understand social distancing rules. They tend to wander around inside their buildings.

It's illegal to lock them inside their rooms

 

There is no doubt that a significantly high number of Covid hospitalisations are people with dementia. A lot of younger people don't seem to understand social distancing either especially when alcohol is involved. Younger people are far more likely to have more social interactions with a wider range of potential spreaders than those in care homes. Younger people will self evidently be more likely to spread Covid and i would suggest that the current higher level of cases is primarily as a result of students returning to universities. It is also illegal to lock them inside their rooms.

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 15 November 2020

Summary

• 1,159 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+41]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends) [-36]
• 100 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+8]
• 1,241 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+43]
• 18,732 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 7.2% of these were positive [-3,434, +1.4%]

[redjambo]

Per-board per-100,000 stats:

 

Scotland 21 [+1].

 

Greater Glasgow 39 [+5], Lanarkshire 34 [+1], Ayrshire 24 [+3], Forth Valley 23 [+4].

 

Fife 18 [-4], Borders 16 [+10], Lothian 12 [-1] (West 21, City 11, Mid 9, East 5), Tayside 12 [-2].

 

All the others: less than 10.

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 hours ago, frankblack said:

This.

 

What goes in must come out, and in terms of city centre there is CCTV everywhere to catch you.

 

Not forgetting its getting colder and drinking cold beer in a cold temperature isn't much fun, and tends to affect your bladder more frequently.

Your last sentence I can relate to.

😫

[ri Alban]

18 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Rader sounding. Someone has criticised the SG 

 

But, but, I'm not an SNP follower 

Now i see why unionists can see independence coming, if they are using RADER. Must be some useless contraption. Do they have SONER too and that's why the nuke sub beached. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, ri Alban said:

Now i see why unionists can't see independence coming, if they are using RADER. Must be some useless contraption. Do they have SONER too and that's why the nuke sub beached. 

 

[redjambo]

Here's a list of the 7-day per-100,000 infection rates for the local council areas compared against their current tiers:

 

Council Area	Tier	7-day per-100,000
Glasgow City	3	280
North Lanarkshire	3	253
Renfrewshire	3	246
East Dunbartonshire	3	234
South Lanarkshire	3	229
East Renfrewshire	3	199
West Dunbartonshire	3	179
Stirling	3	170
East Ayrshire	3	168
West Lothian	3	166
South Ayrshire	3	157
Fife	3	141
Dundee City	3	138
North Ayrshire	3	135
Clackmannanshire	3	105
Inverclyde	3	102
Edinburgh City	3	90
Falkirk	3	87
Perth and Kinross	3	86
Angus	3	84
Scottish Borders	2	65
East Lothian	3	63
Midlothian	3	63
Aberdeen City	2	56
Aberdeenshire	2	56
Dumfries and Galloway	2	50
Argyll and Bute	2	31
Moray	1	31
Highland	1	21
Na h-Eileanan Siar	1	19
Orkney Islands	1	4
Shetland Islands	1	0

[ArcticJambo]

3 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

Humour me and explain what it is that I don't get.

Can't be arsed it was in my first response to you.

[coconut doug]

4 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

Can't be arsed it was in my first response to you.

 

This is your first response. Their consistently high numbers transfers into ~30 deaths a day.  I wouldn't have thought that was not acceptable to those who have the ability to initiate change.  Seems you couldn't be arsed to make a sensible response. Why do you bother at all?

 

The reality is though your claim is nonsense and you can't substantiate it hence the claims that i'm stupid and you can't be arsed. 

 

 

 

[ArcticJambo]

1 minute ago, coconut doug said:

 

This is your first response. Their consistently high numbers transfers into ~30 deaths a day.  I wouldn't have thought that was not acceptable to those who have the ability to initiate change.  Seems you couldn't be arsed to make a sensible response. Why do you bother at all?

 

The reality is though your claim is nonsense and you can't substantiate it hence the claims that i'm stupid and you can't be arsed. 

 

 

 

Drop the 'not' and it makes perfect sense but that wouldn't suit your angle. I'll repeat it in simpler terms, ones that you'll understand; stubbornly high numbers are not good enough, your upward trajectory don't mean jack shit.  Stubbornly high numbers mean deaths. Continuing with stubbornly high numbers is negligent. We'll see what the SG think of those stubbornly high numbers, you know the ones that cause death even though they're not on an upward trajectory, on Tuesday. ffs.

[Governor Tarkin]

1 hour ago, ArcticJambo said:

Drop the 'not' and it makes perfect sense but that wouldn't suit your angle. I'll repeat it in simpler terms, ones that you'll understand; stubbornly high numbers are not good enough, your upward trajectory don't mean jack shit.  Stubbornly high numbers mean deaths. Continuing with stubbornly high numbers is negligent. We'll see what the SG think of those stubbornly high numbers, you know the ones that cause death even though they're not on an upward trajectory, on Tuesday. ffs.

 

You still got that club you used to use on the beby seals?

[GinRummy]

1 hour ago, coconut doug said:

 

This is your first response. Their consistently high numbers transfers into ~30 deaths a day.  I wouldn't have thought that was not acceptable to those who have the ability to initiate change.  Seems you couldn't be arsed to make a sensible response. Why do you bother at all?

 

The reality is though your claim is nonsense and you can't substantiate it hence the claims that i'm stupid and you can't be arsed. 

 

 

 

For how long would 30 deaths a day be acceptable to you? 

Not trying to catch you out but I’m fairly disappointed that we seem to have plateaued rather than gone into reverse given all the sacrifices and stress it’s caused. 
 

edit. Ignore me I skimmed your post rather than reading it properly. 

Edited November 15, 2020 by GinRummy

[ArcticJambo]

7 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

You still got that club you used to use on the beby seals?

no I left it behind, and I only kept it next to my bedside table for, heaven-forbid, any other big-eyed creatures that might come calling!

 

Baby seals are easily enough dismissed with a good fist to the top of the head, Guv. Surprisingly fast & effective,  No seal on the go tonight but got the last of the hunk of venison we managed to procure whilst on Jura last month frying away.

Edited November 15, 2020 by ArcticJambo

[ri Alban]

I hope everyone is doing just fine. We might argue but we're all struggling and need to watch out for each other. 

[Herbert.]

2 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I hope everyone is doing just fine. We might argue but we're all struggling and need to watch out for each other. 

 

You're funny.

 

[coconut doug]

52 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

For how long would 30 deaths a day be acceptable to you? 

Not trying to catch you out but I’m fairly disappointed that we seem to have plateaued rather than gone into reverse given all the sacrifices and stress it’s caused. 
 

edit. Ignore me I skimmed your post rather than reading it properly. 

 

I get the point i'm just being pedantic. Just because things are not getting worse doesn't mean they are getting better. We have to manage this and part of the management has to be to get the infection rate going down. My point is that stable numbers suggest we are not too far away from the right balance whereas a rising infection rate would mean we are going in the wrong direction and maybe need to make big changes.

[3fingersreid]

Had the dubious pleasure of using the no 1 bus yesterday and it got me wondering as to why there isn’t a hand sanitiser provided on buses ? 

Seems strange that shops have to supply it , possibly trains too  , taxis are wiped down ,but nothing on a bus ?

Some of the people using the bus looked like they needed it , made bloody sure I didn’t touch any handles 🤮🤮
 

[jambos are go!]

Watching him on TV today how much could we do with an able and serious politician like Gordon Brown in Downing Street during this pandemic. IMO.

[Ulysses]

On 14/11/2020 at 11:24, Enzo Chiefo said:

It is an oft quoted figure Ullyses. The British Lung Foundation report on Open Access Govt quotes 114,225 respiratory related deaths in 2017, approx 20% of the total number of deaths.

 

That's a figure for deaths from respiratory illnesses, not respiratory viruses, which means it probably includes things like COPD and lung cancer.  Public Health England gave the Sun a figure of 17,000 for average flu deaths between 2015 and 2019.

 

On average, 30,000 or thereabouts die from pneumonia in England each year.  However, the NHS says that most pneumonia cases are bacterial in origin.

 

On the face of it, it does seem as though Covid-19 is the cause of significantly more deaths than seasonal respiratory viruses.  This is also the case here, where almost 2,000 have died from Covid-19 in comparison with an annual flu death toll of around 500 (though it has sometimes reached 1,000).

[Ulysses]

On 14/11/2020 at 11:35, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, it is Brian. I think we all know that "Covid" reported deaths are going to include other forms of flu, pneumonia and respiratory related deaths. I, personally, wouldn't place a lot of faith in any of the daily stats that are churned out by either of our govts. 

I would ,though, like them to explain, however, with evidence to back it up, how they expect moving areas from Tier 3 to Tier 4, will reduce the number of "cases". That is tantamount to saying that non-essential shops, hairdresses etc are the source of the spread. They are not and, like hospitality before them, they are targetting the wrong areas. Feckless people are still visiting each others homes and that will continue regardless of tiers.  The govt can't prevent that but the only way to reduce it is to open up well run, safe hospitality venues that are abiding by the rules. They need to start being honest and transparent about who is getting it, where and how? 

 

Either the figures include something aside from Covid-19 or they don't.  If you're saying they include something else, you should confirm a source or say it's an opinion - and if it's an opinion, then in fairness it isn't something "we all know".  In Ireland a death only gets counted as Covid-19 if it is certified as such by the doctor as the cause of death - they do not count people who die "with" the virus. 

 

As for the second highlighted bit, the purpose of closing certain shops and services is not because they are the source of the spread.  The virus spreads person to person, and the reason for the closures is to reduce the number of times and amount of time people spend in close proximity to each other, thereby reducing opportunities for the virus to spread.

[Weakened Offender]

42 minutes ago, jambos are go! said:

Watching him on TV today how much could we do with an able and serious politician like Gordon Brown in Downing Street during this pandemic. IMO.

 

The same guy who, during Indyref, told parents of terminally ill children that a YES win would lead to their children being unable to access the hospital treatments they needed?

[Governor Tarkin]

30 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

The same guy who, during Indyref, told parents of terminally ill children that a YES win would lead to their children being unable to access the hospital treatments they needed?

 

Was he lying?

[jambos are go!]

34 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

The same guy who, during Indyref, told parents of terminally ill children that a YES win would lead to their children being unable to access the hospital treatments they needed?

Evidence please!

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, 3fingersreid said:

Had the dubious pleasure of using the no 1 bus yesterday and it got me wondering as to why there isn’t a hand sanitiser provided on buses ? 

Seems strange that shops have to supply it , possibly trains too  , taxis are wiped down ,but nothing on a bus ?

Some of the people using the bus looked like they needed it , made bloody sure I didn’t touch any handles 🤮🤮
 

Carry your own I would suggest. I never leave home with out one in my pocket these days. 

[Weakened Offender]

9 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Was he lying?

 

Behave, you silly little man. 

[Don Dan]

Boris Johnson is self-isolating after NHS Test and Trace informed him he had been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19.

[XB52]

33 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Was he lying?

Yes

[XB52]

1 hour ago, jambos are go! said:

Watching him on TV today how much could we do with an able and serious politician like Gordon Brown in Downing Street during this pandemic. IMO.

Please please tell me this is a windup

[DETTY29]

9 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Boris Johnson is self-isolating after NHS Test and Trace informed him he had been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19.

 

 

[Shanks said no]

I'm confused, Boris has already had it, can he be infectious again?

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

I'm confused, Boris has already had it, can he be infectious again?

 

 

That's one of the things with this thing, how long are you protected if you've already had it, I think it's still an unknown question.

[Enzo Chiefo]

6 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

I totally believe that you don't think hospitality makes any significant difference that's why i've asked you to explain why infection rates in England are about 50% higher than Scotland when the only major difference over the period has been more stringent hospitality control in Scotland.

           Human interactions will presumably be similar as people go about their business in similar ways in both England and Scotland. You are suggesting that feckless people are having house parties because hospitality is closed and that is leading to more cases because people are socialising in each other's homes rather than in heavily regulated hospitality venues. Surely if that were true we would have higher cases than England.

    I'm surprised that you say you are  aware of a study that shows 3 -4 % of infections from hospitality and yet in the previous post tell us that you wouldn't trust any government figures. I think this is a very old statistic relating to a very specific circumstance but if you can show different then please do.

   I wonder why Social distancing in care homes is impractical while not being so in hospitality. Does this mean that you think the spread of Covid in care homes was inevitable and that all the accusations and bile you have been directing at the government are misplaced? Surely people in some care homes have less of a chance of catching Covid as they are not getting visitors and staff are more clued up on protective measures. In hospitality venues, hundreds could be sharing the same space and a much higher throughput of potential spreaders. Why are people in care homes more likely to catch Covid? how do you know this?

You simply can't compare England and Scotland and conclude that hospitality is the difference.  England is far more densely populated than here for a start, with a far larger number of big towns and cities. Scotland has a third of the land mass but only a twelth of the population.  That's a huge factor. Why, when pubs have been closed in Scotland for 6 weeks now, are we still getting the same number of cases? Closing hospitality has made not a blind bit of difference.  Those who would break the rules in pubs are simply doing it in their houses now, with others.

Care homes, as the name suggests, involve staff being close and personal to residents while feeding and washing them, for example.  As NT said, patients are far less likely to follow the rules, nor remember them, in care homes. 

Hospitality customers are permanently 6ft away from everyone else, sometimes separated by screens, and mask wearing is compulsory while away from the table. There is minimal risk in the vast majority of hospitality settings. 3 - 4% of outbreaks attributable to these venues, tells it's own story. Any pub that had so much as a single case was headline news. I can remember about 5 or 6 in Edinburgh and the only one I can remember closing was for a deep clean due to a staff member testing positive. Not one of the other staff members caught it. Shutting public transport and supermarkets would be far more useful but, of course, impractical.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

I read that the national clinical director 'hopes' to be able to control the virus whilst keeping schools open.

 

I hope to wake up tomorrow sandwiched between Kylie & Dani with a Bentley on the drive and 10m in the RBS. 

 

Probably similar odds. 

[Weakened Offender]

12 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

 

 

 

How convenient. 

[The Mighty Thor]

4 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

How convenient. 

Not convenient for Baw Jaws at all. 

This week was to be his big relaunch as his own man, nobody pulling his strings, get Brexit done, bluster, waffle etc. 

 

Nae luck.

[The Real Maroonblood]

30 minutes ago, XB52 said:

Please please tell me this is a windup

It must be.

[3fingersreid]

1 hour ago, Boy Daniel said:

Carry your own I would suggest. I never leave home with out one in my pocket these days. 

I do , I was just wondering as to why the buses don’t need to supply it 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Enzo Chiefo]

18 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I have to pull you up again about the 3-4%, it is not an accurate or known figure. There is no Data to tell us the rate of cases in hospitality settings. 
 

Also you were not 6ft away from everyone in pubs, it was a 1m area in most and people were sharing tables with other households with no social distancing. 
 

You are entitled to your opinion but don’t make stuff up to back it up. 

I have to correct you on this point. There is more data to tell us about hospitality than almost any other setting.  You can walk along any street and pop in to every shop, hop on and off a bus all day long and then head for the supermarket.  Nobody knows who you are or how to contact you. Test & Trace will know exactly how many pubs they have contacted while tracking individuals. The PHE figures reflect those very stats.  Being prepared to level with the public, however, that's another matter as aptly demonstrated by Sturgeon and her ministers. It took good investigative journalism by Chris Musson of The Sun to pull her up about the recent miscalculations with contact tracing. She had no intention of admitting it. We are told what what the govts want us to hear but, unlike in March, the majority of the public are making their own informed judgements. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

But that’s not how track and trace is working. The data in pubs etc isn’t held centrally and automatically accessed if someone tests positive. It’s all done manually and nobody goes back the way to see where the person caught it, they just tell people who have been in close contact to isolate. 
 

There is no way that the UK government are sitting on data that shows pubs should be open while they are paying a fortune to keep the shut. 

But the govts have been told that back tracing is the way to go, as the majority of cases result from super spreaders. Still though, they focus on the r number when most "cases" pass it on to no-one. Each and every venue knows how many times - most will be zero - , they have been contacted for customer info. Which is why SHG were able to report 17 cases from 1.8m visits.

Govts are using clunky lockdown methods because they haven't a clue what else to do. They will certainly know that there is no evidence that justifies hospitality closing. 

 

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

That's a figure for deaths from respiratory illnesses, not respiratory viruses, which means it probably includes things like COPD and lung cancer.  Public Health England gave the Sun a figure of 17,000 for average flu deaths between 2015 and 2019.

 

On average, 30,000 or thereabouts die from pneumonia in England each year.  However, the NHS says that most pneumonia cases are bacterial in origin.

 

On the face of it, it does seem as though Covid-19 is the cause of significantly more deaths than seasonal respiratory viruses.  This is also the case here, where almost 2,000 have died from Covid-19 in comparison with an annual flu death toll of around 500 (though it has sometimes reached 1,000).

Yes, I agree, that figure will include other respiratory related illnesses. 

[coconut doug]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I have to correct you on this point. There is more data to tell us about hospitality than almost any other setting.  You can walk along any street and pop in to every shop, hop on and off a bus all day long and then head for the supermarket.  Nobody knows who you are or how to contact you. Test & Trace will know exactly how many pubs they have contacted while tracking individuals. The PHE figures reflect those very stats.  Being prepared to level with the public, however, that's another matter as aptly demonstrated by Sturgeon and her ministers. It took good investigative journalism by Chris Musson of The Sun to pull her up about the recent miscalculations with contact tracing. She had no intention of admitting it. We are told what what the govts want us to hear but, unlike in March, the majority of the public are making their own informed judgements. 

 

Investigative journalism from the Sun. It was a coding error and nobody knew what the real figures were before the error came to light so it was impossible for her to or anybody else to enlighten the public. There were no miscalculations made and no targets not met. The revised figures still show Scotland as the best performing part of the UK with contact testing figures well above the SAGE targets.

  We have been told in Scotland that a significant number of people who were traced through the app had been in  hospitality venues but it was pointed out that they did not know where the infections took place for sure just that it was a reasonable assumption that hospitality played a significant part.

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, weehammy said:

Second lunch this week with Mrs Hammy for the same anniversary. A bit OTT but we were using up vouchers.

Once again we were so relieved that we couldn’t enjoy a glass of wine having seen the clear evidence that Covid pounces on victims as soon as a drop of alcohol passes their lips. 🍷😈

 

You’re spoiling her now just don’t over do it as she’ll expect it all the time.

[JFK-1]

At 12:40pm today my dad died due to coronavirus symptoms.