Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Enzo Chiefo]

11 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Reference:

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza

 

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. 

That is based on reported cases and deaths. We are constantly told that reported cases are a fraction of the actual number. The most accurate death rate is around about 0.4% - 0.6%. We can't compare flu because they don't capture asymptomatic cases, as they don't exist.

[Victorian]

Check out the actuaries poring over the mountain of data to justify an already determined conclusion.

 

The new currency.  Dead people.

[graygo]

16 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

That is based on reported cases and deaths. We are constantly told that reported cases are a fraction of the actual number. The most accurate death rate is around about 0.4% - 0.6%. We can't compare flu because they don't capture asymptomatic cases, as they don't exist.

 

I quoted my own post which said the exact same thing. Apart from your claim about 0.4% - 0.6% being the most accurate as there is no way of knowing.

 

Here's what I posted.

 

The 4% stat is an estimate but the true figure will be much lower as we have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic cases.

 

 

[CavySlaveJambo]

Ok - is Learning Disabilities a co-morbidity that should lead to a higher death rate?  It has unfortunately has a six times higher death rate than the general Population.  
 

Those of you asking about pre-existing conditions - is this what you are referring to? 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by CavySlaveJambo

[graygo]

6 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Is the 4% global or UK?

 

And yes, the reality is that a lot of decisions are being made based on stats which show no signs of becoming any more accurate. 

 

Yes global, it's just under 3% in the UK.

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

I quoted my own post which said the exact same thing. Apart from your claim about 0.4% - 0.6% being the most accurate as there is no way of knowing.

 

Here's what I posted.

 

The 4% stat is an estimate but the true figure will be much lower as we have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic cases.

 

 

My mistake.  Apologies for having missed that in your post.

[Enzo Chiefo]

12 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Yes, absolutely. Feck them and their breathing issues, some folk have got dodgy tickers 🙄

 

The point, which you chose to duck under , is that lockdowns (the unwieldy tool which even the WHO refuse to support) and their consequences are having damaging effects on people who deserve better. Covid is like the shouty kid in class becoming the teacher's pet and getting all the attention while the diligent, quieter kids suffer. 

A very good analogy Jonesy.  Covid is, indeed, the shouty kid in class.

[graygo]

Just now, CavySlaveJambo said:

Ok - is Learning Disabilities a co-morbidity that should lead to a higher death rate?  It has unfortunately has a six times higher death rate than the general Population. 

 

 

There will be lots of reasons for that.

A third of them lived in care homes, not the safest of places. People with learning disabilities might have difficulty following guidelines.

 

From the government website-

"People with learning disabilities are more likely to have other physical health problems such as obesity and diabetes, and certain kinds of learning disability, such as Down’s syndrome, can make people more vulnerable to respiratory infections, which can increase their risk of dying from COVID-19."

[Governor Tarkin]

1 hour ago, fancy a brew said:

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

At least one was a heart disease denier, who refused to believe that people have hearts.

 

Strawman argument.

 

 

Edited 58 minutes ago by fancy a brew
Sorry, tinman.

 

 

Very good.

[Enzo Chiefo]

22 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

35,000 is a more realistic high estimate for normal year’s infections deaths. 
 

Compliance with restrictions is an issue, while I am definitely not arguing for stricter measures, compliance was much, I mean over 90%, higher during the actual lockdown in March. 

Yes, I agree and I think the compliance curve is only going to head downwards. People were frightened of Covid back then but 8 months on, they have assessed the risks for themselves and , by and large, know how to avoid catching it.

[Bull's-eye]

16 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Check out the actuaries poring over the mountain of data to justify an already determined conclusion.

 

The new currency.  Dead people.

 

1st good post 👏

 

My figures show more dead people than yours.

 

Great stuff.

[Weakened Offender]

22 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Check out the actuaries poring over the mountain of data to justify an already determined conclusion.

 

The new currency.  Dead people.

 

They are shameless with it too. 

[Weakened Offender]

27 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

A very good analogy Jonesy.  Covid is, indeed, the shouty kid in class.

 

I'm convinced you're ripping the pish out of Jonesy now. It's actually hilarious. 😁

[Victorian]

10 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

I'm convinced you're ripping the pish out of Jonesy now. It's actually hilarious. 😁

 

Only after ripping the pish out of himself earlier on with this screamer

 

"Although Covid has definitely been used as a trojan horse to force through alcohol bans... "

 

 

[vegas-voss]

800 hundred job losses at Greggs 

[Weakened Offender]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Only after ripping the pish out of himself earlier on with this screamer

 

"Although Covid has definitely been used as a trojan horse to force through alcohol bans... "

 

 

 

He's utterly demented. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Only after ripping the pish out of himself earlier on with this screamer

 

"Although Covid has definitely been used as a trojan horse to force through alcohol bans... "

 

 

The govt must love people like you. The naivety is striking. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

21 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

I'm convinced you're ripping the pish out of Jonesy now. It's actually hilarious. 😁

Not quite sure what the point of you contributing to this thread is tbh. You don't have any coherent views. Not quite sure why his thread itself is still going , if the truth be told. Anyway, I'll let you get back to your crayons , pal.

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The govt must love people like you. The naivety is striking. 

 

I know.  I know.  Meek acceptance of imagined,  fairytale controls is exactly what the government wants.

 

Naivety. 

 

Being detached from reality is the blue ribband of naivety.

[Enzo Chiefo]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

I know.  I know.  Meek acceptance of imagined,  fairytale controls is exactly what the government wants.

 

Naivety. 

 

Being detached from reality is the blue ribband of naivety.

Reality? 🤣. From someone who imparted this belter "new currency, dead people". Sorry to shatter your delusions but last year there were dead people too. Apparently they are still looking for a cure for it. What there wasn't last year was a pecking order for deaths. That is the "new currency".

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Reality? 🤣. From someone who imparted this belter "new currency, dead people". Sorry to shatter your delusions but last year there were dead people too. Apparently they are still looking for a cure for it. What there wasn't last year was a pecking order for deaths. That is the "new currency".

 

I'm not here to wet nurse you through the understanding process of posts.

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I'm not here to wet nurse you through the understanding process of posts.

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

 

Don't lower yourself, Enzo. 👍

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That’s pretty low.

 

People post stats about COVID and you/others tug yourself into a frenzy about how awful compliance is, and how lockdowns are great and necessary.

 

Others share data about non COVID deaths and you accuse them of using the stats to prove points. 
 

You can’t have it both ways, mate. 

 

I don't think it is.  I say it's "low" to continually trivialise the one death against another.  Little statements like "the cure is worse than the disease" is one non-statistical example.  I'm sure all of us would prefer a situation where all preventable deaths were successfully prevented but it's not something that appears achieveable in the equation.  The official strategies are to attempt to prevent as many as possible and it always has been.  

 

The unavoidable reality will always be that covid care = less routine care / less covid care = more routine care.  They have to manage both at the same.  Placing less emphasis on covid for the sake of routine care means excess covid deaths.

 

A covid death is not less important because it's an expected respiratory disease death.  They're all important regardless of age,  health status,  cause of death.

[graygo]

47 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

800 hundred job losses at Greggs 

 

80 thousand? 🤭

[Shanks]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

The 4% stat is an estimate but the true figure will be much lower as we have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic cases.

 

 

Sorry but that makes no sense at all? 
 

What you’ve typed there pretty much says 4% is the estimate death rate but it isn’t the death rate

 

[vegas-voss]

3 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

80 thousand? 🤭

Haha of course not excuse my error

[graygo]

9 minutes ago, Shanks said:

Sorry but that makes no sense at all? 
 

What you’ve typed there pretty much says 4% is the estimate death rate but it isn’t the death rate

 

 

Ok, it's estimated because the WHO say it is 3% - 4%.

It is not an accurate estimate as the true figure is much lower than that due to unreported cases.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by graygo

[Shanks]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

Please yourself, makes perfect sense to me.

How can it? An estimate is a rough calculation.  You can’t say the death rate is estimated at 4% BUT x,y,z means it will be lower than that. 
 

You have to include x,y,z inside your calculation for the estimate. 
 

So 4% is not the estimated death rate, glad that’s cleared up now.

[Don Dan]

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54735702

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 14 November 2020

Summary

• 1,118 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-239]
• 36 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [-20]
• 92 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-4]
• 1,198 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-30]
• 22,166 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 5.8% of these were positive [-4,829, +0.1%]

[Victorian]

10 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Fair enough, and thanks for discussing in a reasonable way, unlike some on here.

 

Your middle paragraph is the sticking point. Why should people expect less routine care because of CV19? While I don't see it as being black or white, the general narrative is that normal life (including routine care) has to stop or be drastically reduced while CV19 is prevalent, and that this focus on CV19 will save some lives. That such approach will save some lives cannot be argued. However, at what overall cost? You don't get that from a daily briefing, and it's too much for some of the mask up and shut up! patrol to digest.

 

There is also the issue around not just preventing death at all costs (which, from a biological perspective, is absurd), but also ensuring quality of life. Lockdowns - putting aside the open the pubs ya howk! nonsense - damage lives. Isolation damages lives. Job losses in viable and yet artificially hamstrung industries damage lives. Governments are consciously making decisions which are damaging and ending a wide variety of lives in order to suppress one cause/co-cause of death. 

 

It's not about valuing one life over another. It's about seeing the bigger picture, IMO.

 

 

 

It's not a case of expectations.  It's a matter of volume of workload.  Personnel and capacity is finite.  Time is finite.  The total of covid + routine care is also finite but capacity will only ever meet demand when demand is regulated over time.  Too great a volume of covid per day/week/month prevents resources being devoted to routine care.   Regulated covid enables some routine care to continue.  Victims of either deserve a chance of care and we cannot allow a situation where a hospital cannot accomodate seriously ill people.  Ambulances queues outside hospitals.  People dying at home due to no ambulances available,  etc.

 

That's the real bigger picture.  The stark reality that resources can't cope with a realistic level of demand that will outstrip it unless the government's strategy continues to firefight.

 

There is a wider picture to take account of the economic and employment consequences.  It looks pretty harrowing tbf.  But the government is correctly judging that a life saved has more value than a job saved.  It has to.  It can only hope to deal with the aftermath of the health and economic wasteland later.

[redjambo]

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Scotland 20 [-5].

 

Greater Glasgow 34 [-3], Lanarkshire 33 [-7], Fife 22 [-18], Ayrshire 21 [=].

 

Forth Valley 19 [-7], Tayside 14 [-10], Grampian 13 [+4], Lothian 13 [-5].

 

Others: less than 10.

[The Real Maroonblood]

23 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Scotland 20 [-5].

 

Greater Glasgow 34 [-3], Lanarkshire 33 [-7], Fife 22 [-18], Ayrshire 21 [=].

 

Forth Valley 19 [-7], Tayside 14 [-10], Grampian 13 [+4], Lothian 13 [-5].

 

Others: less than 10.

👍

[Don Dan]

Thanks for the updates @redjambo

[graygo]

53 minutes ago, Shanks said:

How can it? An estimate is a rough calculation.  You can’t say the death rate is estimated at 4% BUT x,y,z means it will be lower than that. 
 

You have to include x,y,z inside your calculation for the estimate. 
 

So 4% is not the estimated death rate, glad that’s cleared up now.

 

FFS, let me try again.

 

The World Health Organisation estimate the death rate as being 3% - 4% which is the estimate of the CFR (case fatality rate), the true death rate, which is what we are discussing) is the IFR (infection fatality rate) which is considerably lower than the CFR due to untested cases.

 

Hopefully you can get your head round that, if not then I'm out as I can't simplify it any further.

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

52 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54735702

 

are they the roughly the same group of people who unfortunately have died from a respiratory disease?

 

It was also reported that respiratory deaths had been lighter over the past couple of years so a ‘catch-up’ was not unexpected whether covid turned up or not (caveat : haven’t checked the numbers)

 

just showing x > y with no context is absolutely meaningless (but quite common)

[Don Dan]

13 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

are they the roughly the same group of people who unfortunately have died from a respiratory disease?

 

It was also reported that respiratory deaths had been lighter over the past couple of years so a ‘catch-up’ was not unexpected whether covid turned up or not (caveat : haven’t checked the numbers)

 

just showing x > y with no context is absolutely meaningless (but quite common)

 No idea about age groupings. 
Covid could well have taken out those who would have died from other respiratory illness. We can only guess on that one. 
However Covid19 is the culprit now for excess deaths. 

[ri Alban]

58 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Scotland 20 [-5].

 

Greater Glasgow 34 [-3], Lanarkshire 33 [-7], Fife 22 [-18], Ayrshire 21 [=].

 

Forth Valley 19 [-7], Tayside 14 [-10], Grampian 13 [+4], Lothian 13 [-5].

 

Others: less than 10.

The west going into tier 4 this week by the sound of it. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

6 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The west going into tier 4 this week by the sound of it. 

I would rather we go into tier 2.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

15 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 No idea about age groupings. 
Covid could well have taken out those who would have died from other respiratory illness. We can only guess on that one. 
However Covid19 is the culprit now for excess deaths. 

 

anslysis (not suggesting you or I could or could be arsed doing it) would turn that guess into a strong conclusion 

 

that yeadon guy who was a senior figure at Pfizer (think it’s same company as producing the vaccine) was on record recently saying the excess deaths were not covid - not saying ur or he is wrong just treating both statements with a bit of caution

[graygo]

8 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I would rather we go into tier 2.

 

I agree, unless you live there then who give a shiny one what tier they are in?

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

I agree, unless you live there then who give a shiny one what tier they are in?

Exactly.

[ri Alban]

17 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I would rather we go into tier 2.

If I need to go to 4, so be it. Hopefully sort it out in time for 🎅

[ri Alban]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

No good reason for both not to happen. Just as long as they interrogate everyone boarding at Queen Street!

No one is jumping on the train to Edinburgh other than for work. 

[Victorian]

Presumably those calling for changes to tier levels will cease encouraging instances of rules breaches?  Because,  in all sanity,  if you don't care about people ignoring the rules,  why on earth would you care about which tiers we're in?

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

Presumably those calling for changes to tier levels will cease encouraging instances of rules breaches?  Because,  in all sanity,  if you don't care about people ignoring the rules,  why on earth would you care about which tiers we're in?

It seems everyone can do as they please and live their lives. As long as they don't play in my street. 

Covid doesn't exist apparently, well just wait til it chaps your door, dunderheids. 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

To be honest, it hasn't felt like there has been much of a strategy at all. Firefighting is reactionary and panicked, and we've been in this hellish situation for almost a year. There's no sign that either government (or indeed, many across Europe) has the balls or the imagination to come up with much better. 

 

Just to be contrary - whodathunkit! - your point in the last paragraph is what I was getting at about things being overly simplified. Yes, a life saved is a good thing. But that's only because we have daily death figures rolling in with some kind of morbid obsession. The actual consequences of lockdown are that for each job lost, the knock-on effect can and will be brutal - resulting in long term suffering. Whether you view that suffering to be worse than someone vulnerable or who has already exceeded the average life expectancy potentially picking up the virus is the conundrum. There are no easy decisions in that regard, but the government seems to be attempting to make the easiest (take care of the stats and leave the next government to pick up the pieces) rather than the most effective.

 

We're quite possibly a bit nearer than previously.  I think the specific measures are often imperfect but the over-arching objective is correct.  That is largely underpinned by many other governments following largely the same policies.

 

You're right about financial / employment troubles causing consequential problems.  It just adds to the amount of collateral damage to deal with later.

[ri Alban]

Just now, jonesy said:

Because other people following arbitrary rules has an impact on society at large. I want to see a healthy, happy community.

Do people with smokers coughs generally look healthy and happy. Well... I don't expect the nation to be much cop with lungs like compressed plastic bottles. 

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Not once you can get a pint in EH, but not in G.

The night life in Glasgow is still better, even with everything shut.