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39 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

What is stupid is believing if we suppress a virus it will make any difference.  It ain't going away so let's accept that and get back to  normal seeing as we have not had any excess deaths since April. 

We then might get out collective sanity back.  

 

Do you really, honestly believe that the restrictions we have had in this country since March have made no difference to suppressing the virus?

 

On a separate note:

 

Screenshot at 2020-10-26 22-41-37.png

Edited by redjambo
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Cairneyhill Jambo
On 25/10/2020 at 08:07, pablo said:

Rumours out of Victoria Quay also have the dentist down as being a nasty piece of work. Nothing like the carefully created public persona. 

 

I've seen some pish posted on here and that's right up there with the best of it. 

 

Can I ask where you heard those rumours?

 

Victoria Quay has been shut since the middle of March so I doubt there's been any rumours coming from there. 

 

The Health Directorate are based in St Andrew's House. 

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6 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

'Concern' has been their go-to word for months. 

 

Mine too, to be perfectly honest.

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On 25/10/2020 at 16:16, coconut doug said:

 

  I think you will also approve of much of what is written here https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/10/covid-19-and-the-political-utility-of-fear/  . The argument is moving on, a solution needs to be found. The NHS nees to be protected but if numbers fall substantially then resources can be diverted from economic support to community support where they should have been all along IMO.

Yes, quite a balanced article imo. Thanks for sharing.  Certainly in March, protecting the NHS was key as it was thought it may have been overwhelmed.  Thankfully it wasn't and hopefully it won't be this time. I agree regarding community support.  Anyway, it seems to be looking hopeful with the Oxford vaccine and it would be great if that could start to be rolled out before Christmas. 

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1 hour ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

I've still managed about three colds in the past two months despite FACTS, etc.

Balls.

 

On another note, I spoke to one of my work colleagues today and it turns out he managed to catch himself a dose of Covid-19 whilst doing a spot of moonlighting during furlough. He was working on a boat at the time and 11 of them came down with it with wildly varying degrees of severity. 

One guy had the shits, another couple had no symptoms, some were floored, and his were only mild. Unfortunately he now has a swollen heart which isn't working properly. Myocarditis or something. The prognosis is still alright though and he is expected to make a recovery but it may be weeks or months. The laddie is mid twenties and a fit as **** cyclist. He recommended me to try and not catch it if at all possible, as it's decidedly unpleasant. Fingers crossed he's on the mend sooner rather than later.

Interesting to read the various symptoms that those guys experienced . I recall having the s***s , dull headache , disorientated , loss of appetite And dry mouth in late March ( bang in middle of it all ) .These lasted about 3 days .  Hoping it was covid . 

Edited by JamesM48
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Every time I hear one of them say central belt I want to punch them. In central Scotland it’s always been east and west, Now suddenly Edinburgh is lumped in with Glasgow and Lanarkshire is a separate place nothing to do with weegies. All my adult life I’ve voted SNP but now I hate what they are doing . Beer fuelled rant over.

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A long read and an alternative view as to the Swedish view of accepting deathwill happen and aim to achieve herd immunity.

 

It does have the usual views that countries who made decisive lockdown measures supplemented with 'world class' testing, tracing procedures do best in terms of deaths and least detrimental impact on economies.

 

It provides some examples of what happened in care homes, impact on normally healthy people, triaging lives that would normally expect to be saved due to pressures on health services.

 

The care home death example I would say would be helpful to understand as to what happens 'in normal times' if a patient has breathing difficulties instead of morphine shot till death.

 

A key shout out is Sweden expected herd immunity of 40% by April but is only anticipated to be running at 7.1%.  Not that it really matters as herd has never worked without a vaccine according to the report.

 

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

 

Beware, report is jointly written by a Swwdish molecular scientist and a human rights activist.

Edited by DETTY29
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8 hours ago, weehammy said:

If Edinburgh gets dumped in Tier 3 along with Glasgow, don’t look for McVey to do an Andy Burnham and stick up for the city. He’ll no doubt be observing party discipline first and foremost.

Maybe his Labour lackey Cammy will step up?
 

 

McVey is a soapdodger into the bargain. Paisley I think? There's no chance he'll put Edinburgh first. The Murrells don't run the SNP to encourage independent thought and debate within the party on any level.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Cairneyhill Jambo said:

 

I've seen some pish posted on here and that's right up there with the best of it. 

 

Can I ask where you heard those rumours?

 

Victoria Quay has been shut since the middle of March so I doubt there's been any rumours coming from there. 

 

The Health Directorate are based in St Andrew's House. 

 

What makes you think it's pish? Okay subsitute Victoria Quay for St Andrew's House. Off you go.

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22 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

It’s all over the news this morning that antibodies drop pretty quickly after reinfection. What I don’t understand is why, this story circulates every few weeks.
 

It’s been known for a long time that antibodies drop quickly. That’s not even unexpected as there is more to the immune response than just antibodies and all research points to T cells being the key to immune response with covid as it will trigger the antibody response, 
 

I have no idea how long COVID immune response last but considering the reinfection rates it certainly longer than the antibodies do. 

 

Really struggling to understand the constant reappearance of the story outside negative headline sell or maybe a bit of framing of narrative at the moment. 
 

Also if antibodies is the key, a vaccine will have the exact same issue of antibodies levels dropping, except to a even greater degree. 
 

On Scotland restriction it does appear the leak yesterday on council tier level is fairly accurate. 

 

As you say, if antibodies are key then it feels as though we're starting to reach the point where delay in the hope of a vaccine is looking more like a wing and a prayer.

 

We're still operating as though we are all guaranteed tomorrow. It may well be that we realise we aren't and by that point we'll have given up an awful lot of today's to get to that point.

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The Mighty Thor
9 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

On one particular point, I don't think having a 5 tier strategy is necessarily a bad thing at all. In theory it allows a finer-grained approach to Covid infection hotspots, certainly more than a 3-tier strategy will give you. It just depends on how it is applied.

A finer grained approach would not see counties like East Lothian  where case numbers and infection rates are relatively small, being lumped in with Glasgow, where all hell is breaking loose. 

Still no road map and decisions still being made on a political optic rather than clinical basis. 

 

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Governor Tarkin
10 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It is not just an East/West issue, Inverclyde (a big SNP voting area BTW if that's relevant to some) has had weeks of lockdown but has even less cases than East Lothian and Fife, with its less restrictions.

 

It's either relevant to the wider debate or it isn't.

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56 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

It’s all over the news this morning that antibodies drop pretty quickly after reinfection. What I don’t understand is why, this story circulates every few weeks.
 

It’s been known for a long time that antibodies drop quickly. That’s not even unexpected as there is more to the immune response than just antibodies and all research points to T cells being the key to immune response with covid as it will trigger the antibody response, 
 

I have no idea how long COVID immune response last but considering the reinfection rates it certainly longer than the antibodies do. 

 

Really struggling to understand the constant reappearance of the story outside negative headline sell or maybe a bit of framing of narrative at the moment. 
 

Also if antibodies is the key, a vaccine will have the exact same issue of antibodies levels dropping, except to a even greater degree. 
 

On Scotland restriction it does appear the leak yesterday on council tier level is fairly accurate. 

 

One implication from a large drop in the percentage showing antibodies is that we are now seeing the tail end of antibody presence in people who acquired infection when cases were higher at the previous peak.  The instances of reinfection had been very rare but may well now begin to happen more frequently.  One interesting part was the theory about stronger antibody prevalence in healthcare workers being put down to ongoing exposure to virus.  That might possibly indicate a notable level of asymptomatic reinfection in those people to 'top up' the presence of antibodies.  That in turn may indicate a level of immunity memory and higher chances of reinfection being less severe than the first.

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19 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It is not just an East/West issue, Inverclyde (a big SNP voting area BTW if that's relevant to some) has had weeks of lockdown but has even less cases than East Lothian and Fife, with its less restrictions.

 

Is it just an Edinburgh Glasgow issue. Nobody other than those poor souls who live there give a shit about differentiation between Glasgow and Inverclyde. Edinburgh and Glasgow? Whole different ball game. 

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The Real Maroonblood
8 hours ago, obua said:

Every time I hear one of them say central belt I want to punch them. In central Scotland it’s always been east and west, Now suddenly Edinburgh is lumped in with Glasgow and Lanarkshire is a separate place nothing to do with weegies. All my adult life I’ve voted SNP but now I hate what they are doing . Beer fuelled rant over.

A lot of goodwill shown by the public is diminishing rapidly.

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2 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

I don’t understand why people are so protective on the dentist. 

You mean our health minister?

OUr country is being run by 2 people, Sturgeon and the unelected Leitch.

He is the Cummings to her Bojo.

 

At least Southern Scotland, or England as they like to be known, have a health minister who sticks his head up all the time.

I was worried that ours had died, though presumably she has been deemed so incompetent due to the frequency of scandals that she cannot be trusted with something as important as Covid, so is left to deal with things NIicola cares not about, such as the childrens hospitals etc

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The Mighty Thor
1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

It is not just an East/West issue, Inverclyde (a big SNP voting area BTW if that's relevant to some) has had weeks of lockdown but has even less cases than East Lothian and Fife, with its less restrictions.

I'm not interested in East/West or the politics of it all. However if this is how decisions are being made rather than on a public health/clinical basis then the game is a bogey. 

Theres no clinical reason for East Lothian to be in tier 3. None at all. 

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1 minute ago, jonesy said:

In Tier 3 you are allowed to stream highlights of people eating from the halcyon days of EOtHO, with Sturgeon's head in the corner slowly shaking from side to side. All of her 'tut-tuts' are signed and subtitled, too.

 

:)

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20 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I'm not interested in East/West or the politics of it all. However if this is how decisions are being made rather than on a public health/clinical basis then the game is a bogey. 

Theres no clinical reason for East Lothian to be in tier 3. None at all. 

Head of the borders council was on the radio this morning - she is really not amused.

they are being put in tier 2, and she wants to know why, as it will destroy hospitality- she thinks they should be in tier 1.

She is demanding answers.

Sounded as if she was going to "do a Burnham"

 

I suspect that the fact natives of edinburgh are using the borders as somewhere to drink and eat whilst evading thier own restrictions is the answer she will get.

IN much the same way that Arran has been plomped into tier 3 , despite no cases at all

 

Edited by doctor jambo
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Ambulances driving round for hours in Belgium until hospitals find space, asking the Dutch to take on patients who in turn are asking the Germans to take theirs.

 

Ingliston, Ratho, Gogar 10 new cases with pop of 3400 odds, case level 282 per 100k.

 

Postcode rather than council restrictions?

 

Hopefully the EH28 post code reason can be identified soon and Incident Management, if required can isolate.

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12 minutes ago, jonesy said:

In Tier 3 you are allowed to stream highlights of people eating from the halcyon days of EOtHO, with Sturgeon's head in the corner slowly shaking from side to side. All of her 'tut-tuts' are signed and subtitled, too.

:laugh:

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35 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

You mean our health minister?

OUr country is being run by 2 people, Sturgeon and the unelected Leitch.

He is the Cummings to her Bojo.

 

At least Southern Scotland, or England as they like to be known, have a health minister who sticks his head up all the time.

I was worried that ours had died, though presumably she has been deemed so incompetent due to the frequency of scandals that she cannot be trusted with something as important as Covid, so is left to deal with things NIicola cares not about, such as the childrens hospitals etc

 

Leitch isn't our health minister, that's Freeman. Difficult to tell from your first two sentences whether you're aware of that or not.

 

Apologies, you're last sentence shoes that you are.

Edited by graygo
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1 minute ago, graygo said:

 

Leitch isn't our health minister, that's Freeman. Difficult to tell from your first two sentences whether you're aware of that or not.

I am well aware, its just that one is all over the news telling us about things in this health crisis, how to stay safe, prevalence, hospital status, and so on.

 

and the other is our health minister.

Has she chucked it?

 

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7 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Head of the borders council was on the radio this morning - she is really not amused.

they are being put in tier 2, and she wants to know why, as it will destroy hospitality- she thinks they should be in tier 1.

She is demanding answers.

Sounded as if she was going to "do a Burnham"

 

I suspect that the fact natives of edinburgh are using the borders as somewhere to drink and eat whilst evading thier own restrictions is the answer she will get.

IN much the same way that Arran has been plomped into tier 3 , despite no cases at all

 

 

Whats the point in having this tier system then?

 

Crazy if you have low numbers to then get put in tier 3 

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1 minute ago, doctor jambo said:

I am well aware, its just that one is all over the news telling us about things in this health crisis, how to stay safe, prevalence, hospital status, and so on.

 

and the other is our health minister.

Has she chucked it?

 

 

I did edit my post when it became obvious that you knew.

Auld Jeannie was on the afternoon goon show just the other day.

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The Mighty Thor
13 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

And even less so for Inverclyde. I think they are going to have to come up with a very convincing argument to lump the central belt into one region when the numbers are so varied, but there are council areas that are so large that they will have huge variations across urban and rural areas.

 

I think they will differentiate between areas, but I'm not sure they will get the levels right in each of them, certainly not in the eyes of the residents and businesses.

I agree with you but it rightly adds further fuel to the 'making it up as they go along/no clear plan' fire.

 

The new system, just like the old one, is redundant before it begins. 4 weeks onto no household mixing and nearly 3 weeks into no hospitality and case numbers are still rising.

 

Its not working.  

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2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I’ll go out on a limb and say I doubt any part of the country will be at a lower level than their 2 initially. Think they want to keep the ban on household visiting for as long as possible. 

its already leaked- nobody lower than 2- even the outer hebrides/ orkney etc who have really low cases.

 

There will be "consideration" given over time to whether to lower their tier.

Which means they will do what they want, reagrdless of the figures.

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The Real Maroonblood
39 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I'm not interested in East/West or the politics of it all. However if this is how decisions are being made rather than on a public health/clinical basis then the game is a bogey. 

Theres no clinical reason for East Lothian to be in tier 3. None at all. 

I agree.

Local lockdown should mean exactly that.

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Shooter McGavin

Can anybody give me a link to show the level of lockdown that’ll be applied in each part of the country, the only thing I can find is from The Sun and I don’t really fancy wasting my time on that.

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1 minute ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Can anybody give me a link to show the level of lockdown that’ll be applied in each part of the country, the only thing I can find is from The Sun and I don’t really fancy wasting my time on that.

 

Not been released yet. A wee leak but not a complete breakdown.

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5 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Can anybody give me a link to show the level of lockdown that’ll be applied in each part of the country, the only thing I can find is from The Sun and I don’t really fancy wasting my time on that.

GGC, Lanark, entire lothians, entire ayrshire and arran are all tier 3

everywhere else tier 2

 

 

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Governor Tarkin
Just now, Lord BJ said:


Ahh ok, had only seen the Edinburgh leak, beginning to feel ‘lockdown lite’ via the back door.

 

Stop overreacting, it's a two week 'circuit break'. :rolleyes:

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24 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Stop overreacting, it's a two week 'circuit break'. :rolleyes:

 

Someone needs to give them an abacus to learn how to count to two.

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1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:


I think it’s a false conclusion being drawn. Immunity isn’t just about antibodies. It’s a lot more complicated than that. 
 

With COVID the key factor is the T cells. This is a bit like a archive of diseases you have faced. If you had covid and were to come into contact with it again, simple terms the T cells look at how this was dealt with previously and triggers the bodies immune response and antibodies to tell COVID gtf. Now @Victorian might be right and this means second doses are less severe and more asymptomatic, albeit I think it points to immunity but for how long I have no idea 

 

Maybe we are about to see a large number of reinfection as immunity is about to end. I don’t think so, this thing has been knocking about for about a year that we know  of and at best/worst we have had a handful of reinfection and even then, those reinfection are much more likely to be due to individual issues as opposed to immunity disappearing with the antibodies. They should be treated as the exception and not the rule imo. 

 

I’m beginning to have problems with the term herd immunity. Mainly because it seems to be becoming something it’s not for a lot of people. Antibodies aren’t going to be a great indicator of immunity in the population for a variety of reasons, mainly because we know the antibody response is so short. That is not unusual in immunity with diseases at all, in fact it’s pretty much the norm. 
 

(Apologies for my shit attempt at simplying how the  bodies immune response)

 

I have never believed a vaccine would be here all that quickly, however,, the noises are encouraging at the moment and I have little doubt those medical bods will be aware of dropping antibody level as it’s been known about for over 6 months,  
 

Im probably just bitching  about the reporting of it in the media. I really should know better 😞

 

Yes,  this latest news about immunity doesn't really add much either way to the layman.  If anything the healthcare worker bit presents a small possibility of very good news.  But the headline bit about waning antibody presence is not necessarily bad news in the grand scheme. 

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6 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Someone needs to give them an abacus to learn how to count to two.

when their lockdown starts at the number 0, the lowest number possible and means STILL having governmental imposed restrictions on who you can have in your house, then you know they are at it.

 

Does that mean that for life to be normal we need to be at tier -1 ?

Or for NS and JL to mind their own business we need to enter the Kelvin Scale?

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Just now, doctor jambo said:

when their lockdown starts at the number 0, the lowest number possible and means STILL having governmental imposed restrictions on who you can have in your house, then you know they are at it.

 

Does that mean that for life to be normal we need to be at tier -1 ?

Or for NS and JL to mind their own business we need to enter the Kelvin Scale?

 

Sadly I think you are correct.

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1 minute ago, doctor jambo said:

when their lockdown starts at the number 0, the lowest number possible and means STILL having governmental imposed restrictions on who you can have in your house, then you know they are at it.

 

Does that mean that for life to be normal we need to be at tier -1 ?

Or for NS and JL to mind their own business we need to enter the Kelvin Scale?

100% this if numbers are at a level that they should be at 0 then those restrictions should be in place.

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Shooter McGavin
42 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

GGC, Lanark, entire lothians, entire ayrshire and arran are all tier 3

everywhere else tier 2

 

 

Much appreciated! 
 

That’s a good enough rough idea, will just need to see what the official announcements are, I believe towards the end of this week we’ll have a clearer picture.

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11 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Sadly I think you are correct.

I think the repeated use of "the new normal" is exactly that, the prolonged intrusion of the state into our homes based on "science" aka fear, as opposed to evidence

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1 minute ago, doctor jambo said:

I think the repeated use of "the new normal" is exactly that, the prolonged intrusion of the state into our homes based on "science" aka fear, as opposed to evidence

 

It is more straightforward than that - they are only bringing out science when it suits their political agenda.  When it doesn't they mislead and fail to present data to back up their argument e.g. cause of hospitality in rise of infections.

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1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

It is more straightforward than that - they are only bringing out science when it suits their political agenda.  When it doesn't they mislead and fail to present data to back up their argument e.g. cause of hospitality in rise of infections.

you think that if support for Indy reached a certain level she would close the border?:rifle:

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1 hour ago, doctor jambo said:

I am well aware, its just that one is all over the news telling us about things in this health crisis, how to stay safe, prevalence, hospital status, and so on.

 

and the other is our health minister.

Has she chucked it?

 

Crossed my mind as well. 

 

Conspicuous by her absence recently. 🤔

 

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36 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

when their lockdown starts at the number 0, the lowest number possible and means STILL having governmental imposed restrictions on who you can have in your house, then you know they are at it.

 

Does that mean that for life to be normal we need to be at tier -1 ?

Or for NS and JL to mind their own business we need to enter the Kelvin Scale?

For me all this does is go some way towards eradicating hope. The majority of society who are following the rules are doing so in the hope that some day in the not so distance future we will be able to live our lives more freely again - seeing family again would be the priority for me. What does having a scale which starts at 0 with restrictions do for them over time? It’s wrong in my opinion. We should have in mind that this virus won’t be around for ever and sometimes I think there are members of the government, media etc. who would be better off remembering that. Otherwise they run the risk of appearing exactly as you’ve mentioned. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

It’s all over the news this morning that antibodies drop pretty quickly after reinfection. What I don’t understand is why, this story circulates every few weeks.
 

It’s been known for a long time that antibodies drop quickly. That’s not even unexpected as there is more to the immune response than just antibodies and all research points to T cells being the key to immune response with covid as it will trigger the antibody response, 
 

I have no idea how long COVID immune response last but considering the reinfection rates it certainly longer than the antibodies do. 

 

Really struggling to understand the constant reappearance of the story outside negative headline sell or maybe a bit of framing of narrative at the moment. 
 

Also if antibodies is the key, a vaccine will have the exact same issue of antibodies levels dropping, except to a even greater degree. 
 

On Scotland restriction it does appear the leak yesterday on council tier level is fairly accurate. 

 

Because imo it's preparing the ground work for the public to understand that Covid-19 isn't going away, that even with a vaccine we'll all just have to learn to live with this.

 

The fall in antibodies suggest people will be regularly re-infected, just as they are with related coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

Professor Wendy Barclay, an infectious diseases specialist and one of the researchers, said antibodies peak three to four weeks after symptoms and then drop away, as they do for related viruses.

She said: "Seasonal coronaviruses that circulate every winter and cause common colds can re-infect people after six to 12 months.

"We suspect that the way the body reacts to infection with this new coronavirus is similar to that."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

 

Thomas Moore, Sky's science correspondent was saying on the TV today that very thing, that we may have to live with this like we do with the common cold & the flu and may if a vaccine is developed have to have boosters every year or 6 months, this has been mentioned before, but today, for the first time I watched the reports and thought that the narrative is changing, that the science is increasingly suggesting that just like all other coronaviruses which plague us humans, covid-19 willl be just another one that we'll have to learn to live with.

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

when their lockdown starts at the number 0, the lowest number possible and means STILL having governmental imposed restrictions on who you can have in your house, then you know they are at it.

 

Does that mean that for life to be normal we need to be at tier -1 ?

Or for NS and JL to mind their own business we need to enter the Kelvin Scale?

No,

 

This is what is cafe and not a cafe?

 

Why can nurseries who have a soft ball area be open, but soft ball only businesses can't?

 

waste of time debate all over again, apart from a small amount of tweaking

 

If they had put in levels 1 - 5 they would have been out of sync with what England may end up with, remembering Whittey, Vallance announced at English tiering that they are expecting a requirement for an additional tier.

 

And if 1 to 5 had been introduced the same folk complaining about 0-4, would be complaining about that very same 1 - 5, being out of sync with England.

 

C'est la vie.

 

Edit, of course the variances between each tiering across both countries is a valid observation.

Edited by DETTY29
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7 minutes ago, King prawn said:

For me all this does is go some way towards eradicating hope. The majority of society who are following the rules are doing so in the hope that some day in the not so distance future we will be able to live our lives more freely again - seeing family again would be the priority for me. What does having a scale which starts at 0 with restrictions do for them over time? It’s wrong in my opinion. We should have in mind that this virus won’t be around for ever and sometimes I think there are members of the government, media etc. who would be better off remembering that. Otherwise they run the risk of appearing exactly as you’ve mentioned. 
 

 

 

When life returns to normal there will be no longer be a tier system in place.

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