Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

From the Telegraph. Missing the graphs. 

 

Revealed: How Covid cases have fallen far short of the Government's 'doomsday graph'
Graph presented by chief scientific adviser last month warned case numbers could reach 50,000 a day by middle of this month
By
Bill Gardner
11 October 2020 • 6:15pm

 
It was perhaps the most notorious graph of the pandemic so far – a stark warning of 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October unless ministers placed new restrictions on daily life.

Presented by Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, at a Downing Street press conference on September 22, the graph showed that case numbers could double every week, with deaths growing past 200 a day.

"If – and that's quite a big if – but if that [rising cases] continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day," he said.

However the latest figures show that the true acceleration of Covid has fallen far short of his doomsday scenario.

 
The Government said that, as of 9am on Sunday, there had been a further 12,872 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK, although the figure is likely to be skewed downwards by a weekend lag in reporting. 

According to the worst-case scenario, there would have been upwards of 40,000 cases confirmed. Daily infections would need to rise by a further 37,128 on Sunday's total to hit 50,000 by Wednesday October 13, as suggested by the model.

The Government said a further 65 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Sunday, fewer than one third of the total predicted by mid-October in the worst case scenario.

Experts have accused officials of attempting to "scare people" into accepting new lockdown restrictions to contain the virus.

Professor Karol Sikora, a former director at the World Health Organisation, suggested the "implausible" graph had damaged public trust in the Government and said: "If you try to scare people with worst case scenarios, it doesn't work. Instead, they just think the whole thing is silly and they lose trust in everything else you say. 

"I can't see any value in that graph at all. The more you test, the more cases you find – and of course testing has been prioritised towards areas with higher infection rates. We need a sensible discussion of the risks posed by coronavirus, not doomsday scenarios based on shaky science."

It later emerged that the Government's suggestion that infections were doubling every seven days (one of the scenarios illustrated below) was based largely on studies involving only a few hundred cases rather than large-scale testing data.

 
The Conservative MP Sir Desmond Swayne suggested the graph was a "sackable offence", adding: "It was project fear. It was an attempt to terrify the British people, as if they had not been terrified enough."

Scientists have suggested that more than 100,000 Britons were infected with Covid-19 each day during the peak of the pandemic, although most cases went undetected due to a lack of testing. However, this was in March and April, after the virus was left to spread uncontrollably. 

Professor Azeem Majeed, the head of public health at Imperial College, said he had "sympathy" for the Government, adding that the graph (illustrated below) had been a "necessary exercise".

 
"In order to justify more restrictions, you do need to set out what would happen if the Government failed to act," Prof Majeed said.

"Since then, we have introduced measures like the pub curfew and the working from home directive. I think it's understandable that the rates are not going up as quickly as the graph suggested, but the rates are still increasing quickly in Northern towns and cities and it's a concerning time." 

Last month, Sir Patrick defended the graph by insisting it had never been a "prediction". He said the scenario was designed to "point out" that epidemics either "double or halve", adding that when they double "things go very big quite quickly".

He added: "So things move quickly, and when things double you see that exponential growth, which means you end up with very high numbers and it means you have to act quickly in order to deal with that."

 

The author seems to have overlooked the fact that the rise in cases did not continue unabated.   They have risen whilst being suppressed by restrictions.

[Taffin]

11 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

19x7 = 133. It's not an average of the daily figures. It's a weekly total per-100,000 stat. 145 infections per 100,000 over the entire week. Note also, although it's not relevant, that the 19 pertained to the entire Lothian NHS area, the 145 to the City of Edinburgh (although the city does make up the majority of the population of the NHS board).

 

Coconut Doug tried to explain this to me earlier to no avail, thanks for that though, I'm hopeful I will get my head around it in time, I'm guessing it's 100,000 test over 7 days and there were 145 positives...and the 19 figure has nothing to do with a per 100,000 measure.

 

 

Quote

The positive cases are not from a sample. They're from actual positive tests. As far as I am aware, anyway.

 

 

Yeh I believe they're positive tests but to arrive at a 'per 100,000' figure they must be test 100,000 people, or, testing say 10,000 and then increasing it by a factor of 10. If the positive results aren't from a random sample of the population though, you'll get a skewed result because people getting tested have a reason to be tested in the first place (symptoms or exposure) so you would surely get an artificially high number of positives versus 100,000 in the general populace who have felt no need to go and get a test as they have no symptoms and have no particular reason to think they've got it. Again, to try and explain my simple way of thinking, wouldn't that be like asking 100 people on a golf course if they like golf and then applying that to the population as a whole.

 

I'd end all of that with a question mark but I appreciate it's not for you to educate me on the answers to that so I do appreciate what you've shared so far and I'll try and do my own digging and wrap my head around it all 👍

Edited October 11, 2020 by Taffin

[Konrad von Carstein]

4 hours ago, jonesy said:

 

In February you would have been laughed out of town for suggesting the governments of the UK were going to create laws that made visiting your own family and friends illegal, and that you'd have to hinder your breathing by wearing a mask just to buy some teabags.

 

Oh Furfuxake

[The Real Maroonblood]

11 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Yes, but it makes them more comfortable only in their ignorance. It's as if they think they're immune. 

Each to their own.

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Coconut Doug tried to explain this to me earlier to no avail, thanks for that though, I'm hopeful I will get my head around it in time, I'm guessing it's 100,000 test over 7 days and there were 145 positives...and the 19 figure has nothing to do with a per 100,000 measure.

 

Yeh I believe they're positive tests but to arrive at a 'per 100,000' figure they must be test 100,000 people, or, testing say 10,000 and then increasing it by a factor of 10. If the positive results aren't from a random sample of the population though, you'll get a skewed result because people getting tested have a reason to be tested in the first place (symptoms or exposure) so you would surely get an artificially high number of positives versus 100,000 in the general populace who have felt no need to go and get a test as they have no symptoms and have no particular reason to think they've got it.

 

I'd end all of that with a question mark but I appreciate it's not for you to educate me on the answers to that so I do appreciate what you've shared so far and I'll try and do my own digging and wrap my head around it all 👍

 

Here's how I see it. Over the last week, there were 762 folk tested as positive in Edinburgh City. The city has a population of 524,900, so the per-100,000 figure is 762*100000/524900 = 145.

 

The only reason to convert the infection stats into "per-100,000" is in order to compare areas and regions with differing population sizes.

 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

There is no place for understanding the stats on this thread. How dare you. 

 

[Konrad von Carstein]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

 

Would you rather wear one, or not? Everyone I speak to at work, as soon as they remove the mask to speak to me, take a deep, cleansing breath. It's pretty clear that the mask has been restricting their breathing.

 

And, okay, it's taken from the Daily Heil, but...

 

Asthma UK says: 'For some people with asthma, wearing a face covering might not be easy. It could make it feel harder to breathe. 

'The government has advised that people with respiratory conditions don’t need to wear face coverings, so if you are finding it hard, then don’t wear one.' 

It's all bants, my good man

 I also take a nice cleansing breath when I remove my mask, I have minor issues (except when it flares up, then it is an effin **** of a thing) with my sinuses and it is a pain in the bottom having to wear one, however, it is for such a short period of time a couple of times a week that I am OK with following the rules.

I have found that Tesco's washable ones are pretty good and not too restrictive...

 

May the road rise to you in your rebellion 

[Taffin]

10 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Here's how I see it. Over the last week, there were 762 folk tested as positive in Edinburgh City. The city has a population of 524,900, so the per-100,000 figure is 762*100000/524900 = 145.

 

The only reason to convert the infection stats into "per-100,000" is in order to compare areas and regions with differing population sizes.

 

 

Bingo. Gotcha! It's per 100,000 of population not 100,000 in and of itself. Thank you!!

 

It's been aching my brain all day 😂. I thought it was meaning per 100,000 tested. D'oh!!

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

Bingo. Gotcha! It's per 100,000 of population not 100,000 in and of itself. Thank you!!

 

It's been aching my brain all day 😂. I thought it was meaning per 100,000 tested. D'oh!!

 

No problem, Taffin.

 

I've always found a wee dram is good for brain ache.

[Jeff]

2 hours ago, 3fingersreid said:

But their country , an island , did what this ****ing island should’ve done back in March , SHUT THE ISLAND TO ALL INCOMERS, you could leave but you aren’t getting back in , 

 

Depressing ain't it? I have a mate over there who said people were breaking the quarantine rules so the PM had police sit outside quarantined people's property. It worked obviously

[Dawnrazor]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

[Dawnrazor]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Don't suffocate the Fonz!

😅👍

[Konrad von Carstein]

16 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Don't suffocate the Fonz!

 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That's an absolute disgrace.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imagine allowing your son to eat a hot dog.

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I was out with my boy today in a shop, he got something to eat as I nipped to toilet. I come back to some arsehole having a little bit of pop at my son for not wearing his mask. He was eating a hot dog at the time. 
 

I’m walking back as said arsehole begins to castigate the boy, after he tells them he’s eating. I get back before said arsehole gets too carried away and quickly read them their horoscope.
 

Arsehole trots of staff who promptly tells them to **** off. For clarity I was not in Hamilton and my boy is 11. 
 

 

 

What a muppet.

[spirt of 98]

4 hours ago, jonesy said:

Feck the rules

Avoid wearing a muzzle

Congregate at your pals' houses

Travel between bubbles

Sturgeon should be ignored at all costs

 

Them's the facts 'round these 'ere parts 😇

Aye good advice if you want to be in the mess for years to come. 

[Dawnrazor]

6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I was out with my boy today in a shop, he got something to eat as I nipped to toilet. I come back to some arsehole having a little bit of pop at my son for not wearing his mask. He was eating a hot dog at the time. 
 

I’m walking back as said arsehole begins to castigate the boy, after he tells them he’s eating. I get back before said arsehole gets too carried away and quickly read them their horoscope.
 

Arsehole trots of staff who promptly tells them to **** off. For clarity I was not in Hamilton and my boy is 11. 
 

 

 

Well done, I'd have done the same, ****in gutless cretins having a go at a bairn🤬

 

[spirt of 98]

5 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I wonder who they'll blame if the infection rates continue to rise even with the "evil" hospitality industry shut down? 

Probably blame the idiots who don’t wear masks and continue to break the rules. 

[Governor Tarkin]

16 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

4 hours ago, jonesy said:

Feck the rules

Avoid wearing a muzzle

Congregate at your pals' houses

Travel between bubbles

Sturgeon should be ignored at all costs

 

Them's the facts 'round these 'ere parts 😇

Aye good advice if you want to be in the mess for years to come. 

 

Jonesy is factoring in being dead by early next week so years to come don't concern him.

[1971fozzy]

Liverpool looks feked. Talk of up to 6 months restrictions 😱 

[milky_26]

4 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

Liverpool looks feked. Talk of up to 6 months restrictions 😱 

look on the bright side, stolen car numbers will decrease

[Nucky Thompson]

11 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

Liverpool looks feked. Talk of up to 6 months restrictions 😱 

It could last 6 months, but gets reviewed every 4 weeks

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

I wonder how much the Liverpool title celebrations aided spread in city 

Probably not as much as opening the Universities up. 

[graygo]

26 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

Liverpool looks feked. Talk of up to 6 months restrictions 😱 

 

If restrictions take 6 months then I would say that they are not working.

[redjambo]

29 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

look on the bright side, stolen car numbers will decrease

 

I've heard they even steal whole cars, not just the numbers.

[Enzo Chiefo]

12 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Probably not as much as opening the Universities up. 

Close the uni campuses and send the students home to study online, working from home as millions already do. That will allow pubs and restaurants to stay open.

[3fingersreid]

1 hour ago, Gone said:

 

Depressing ain't it? I have a mate over there who said people were breaking the quarantine rules so the PM had police sit outside quarantined people's property. It worked obviously

We’ll always struggle when our politicians are breaking the law ( due to a blip 🙈) or an advisor to the PM decides he’s above following the rules by heading north for eye tests . At least the woman who was advisor to the FM resigned after she was caught out visiting her 2nd home . 
 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Close the uni campuses and send the students home to study online, working from home as millions already do. That will allow pubs and restaurants to stay open.

 

The damage may have already been done, and sending the students home this quickly may in fact transfer the virus back into homes in a significant way, but if they had a chance to do things all over again, this is what they should have done. Have students study at home, where practical, and maintain adequate monitoring of the measures being taken by pubs and restaurants. Glad to see we agree on something.

[1971fozzy]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The damage may have already been done, and sending the students home this quickly may in fact transfer the virus back into homes in a significant way, but if they had a chance to do things all over again, this is what they should have done. Have students study at home, where practical, and maintain adequate monitoring of the measures being taken by pubs and restaurants. Glad to see we agree on something.

👍👍👍

[Governor Tarkin]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

 

Coming back to haunt the mask-wearing hordes in the afterlife, though. T'riffic.

👻

 

 

 

So your theatrical departure and subsequent resurrection on this thread were just a practice run then? You sly old dog, you.

 

 

[Morgan]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

That's an absolute disgrace.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imagine allowing your son to eat a hot dog.

[kila]

7 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Close the uni campuses and send the students home to study online, working from home as millions already do. That will allow pubs and restaurants to stay open.

 

Lots of pubs rely on students mind, especially freshers eager to get pished every afternoon and night. Not that they can do that now anyway but it isn't as simple as send the students home and the hospitality industry will be fine.

 

[Morgan]

18 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I've heard they even steal whole cars, not just the numbers.

Don’t give up the day job, Red.

 

😎

[Governor Tarkin]

25 minutes ago, graygo said:

52 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

Liverpool looks feked. Talk of up to 6 months restrictions 😱 

 

If restrictions take 6 months then I would say that they are not working.

 

 

It wouldn't be the first time that 'Liverpool' and 'not working' have been used in the same scentence tbf.

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, Governor Tarkin said:

 

 

It wouldn't be the first time that 'Liverpool' and 'not working' have been used in the same scentence tbf.

Ooft😆😆

[redjambo]

Just now, Morgan said:

Don’t give up the day job, Red.

 

😎

 

[Morgan]

3 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

 

It wouldn't be the first time that 'Liverpool' and 'not working' have been used in the same scentence tbf.

 

[Morgan]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Modest devil, you.

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Morgan said:

Modest devil, you.

 

The modestest.

[Enzo Chiefo]

15 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The damage may have already been done, and sending the students home this quickly may in fact transfer the virus back into homes in a significant way, but if they had a chance to do things all over again, this is what they should have done. Have students study at home, where practical, and maintain adequate monitoring of the measures being taken by pubs and restaurants. Glad to see we agree on something.

Yes, fair point. I thought we always agreed though😎

[Morgan]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

The modestest.

Not.

 

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

13 minutes ago, kila said:

 

Lots of pubs rely on students mind, especially freshers eager to get pished every afternoon and night. Not that they can do that now anyway but it isn't as simple as send the students home and the hospitality industry will be fine.

 

Some of the lecturers and tutors are eager to get pished every afternoon too though Kila😃

Edited October 11, 2020 by Enzo Chiefo

[kila]

2 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Some of the lecturers and tutors are eager to get pished every afternoon too though Kila😃

 

Ah yes but do they visit the pubs or their bottom left drawer...? 

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, kila said:

 

Ah yes but do they visit the pubs or their bottom left drawer...? 

 

Haha..yes, the bottom left drawer I think👍

[Morgan]

5 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Is it making a difference with the infection rates though?

 

And I'm asking that as a genuine question, because I recall Madrid made mask wearing compulsory and infection rates increased, which you'd think shouldn't happen.

 

And to the contray of what anybody may think, I'm not against the wearing of face masks in enclosed spaces, however I'm just not convinced about their usefulness in outdoor settings, especially where I live, which you know the area and you also know it is far from built up, busy or crowded.

 

 

Our town, Jimbo is pretty wee (around 30 thousand).  Very, very low Covid rate.  Nice (30 minutes away) is/was/is again very high.

 

Seems to be working here, despite a ridiculously high amount of tourists in July and August.  We are quite (well sort of) happy to be mask wearers.  To be honest, we walk and run in areas well away from the coast and the town, so encounter virtually no people.

 

5 hours ago, jonesy said:

Mental. And against all good medical advice.

 

Fear does strange things to governments and people.

 

See above, J.

 

All good for us at the mo.  👍

 

4 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

At the moment it’s not compulsory but I can understand people wearing them if it makes them feel more comfortable.

 

No more uncomfortable than a Hibs scarf, one would imagine!

 

 

[Morgan]

 

[graygo]

1 hour ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

 

It wouldn't be the first time that 'Liverpool' and 'not working' have been used in the same scentence tbf.

 

[ri Alban]

Why didn't the SG just suspend the drink licence and allow the restaurant to trade and the pub to temporarily change trade to cafe or restaurant. Strange shutting altogether because you can sell bevvy. 

[ri Alban]

10 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

I was out with my boy today in a shop, he got something to eat as I nipped to toilet. I come back to some arsehole having a little bit of pop at my son for not wearing his mask. He was eating a hot dog at the time. 
 

I’m walking back as said arsehole begins to castigate the boy, after he tells them he’s eating. I get back before said arsehole gets too carried away and quickly read them their horoscope.
 

Arsehole trots of staff who promptly tells them to **** off. For clarity I was not in Hamilton and my boy is 11. 
 

 

 

Picking on a lad, he should have kicked you in nuts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by ri Alban

[DETTY29]

Scientist on 5L last night.

 

Face masks are that marginal gain to help keep you as safe as possible.  Social distancing and keeping hands clean are the key measures.

 

He used British cycling whose success was built on marginal gains.

Edited October 12, 2020 by DETTY29