Konrad von Carstein Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: B follows A does not mean B was caused by A. You're saying that the reduction in infections following each lockdown was a coincidence? Was it a great white or a hammerhead that you water skiid over? 🦈🦈🦈 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, escobri said: This is just warming up, gonna get much worse, your phone will soon be your pass to “freedom”, can’t wait till the preaching jagged can’t get in somewhere as they’ve not had their regular booster. Correct ! 👍 however some would rather sacrifice their freedoms to be able to get a pint 🍺 tragic really . It’s all about the principles of it . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: B follows A does not mean B was caused by A. Yeah cases just massively dropped off after lockdown measures every time through sheer chance or perhaps some form of witchcraft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Lord BJ said: We will need to disagree. i really don’t see how staff make this fail, this vast majority of people will take the jab. So those who don’t, won’t be considered for a position a vaccinated person will; a few places have done it already for new contracts Whilst, clubs will enforce if it means they can make money. It’s difficult to make money when you have been forced to shut. I have little doubt there will curtain twitchers around the club doing their civic duty! Clubs may close but those who adapt to new world will get stronger. Demand remains its just supply changing. I agree it’s about behavioural management. I have long said the easiest way to increase up take amongst youngsters/reluctant would tell them they can go on holiday or whatever without a jab. I expect people will moan for a bit but essentially get it done As I said said this earlier, this isn’t about perfection it’s about reducing risk in areas. Anyway, like most conversations this morning suspect we’ve reached the conclusion. Take it easy. 👍 Fetching uniforms may also be available to those who which to make a career in rigorously ensuring that the “ unvaccinated “ Do not enter certain places . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Lord BJ said: Perhaps. I’m not sure of the morality of it all. I just think it’s coming and easily manageable. 🤷🏻♂️ Sounds a very resigned / passive way of looking at things . I think there will be a mass mobilisation of protests etc regarding this issue . As someone else said it’ll be BJ “ Poll tax “ but I also think they are playing a game as a reporter stated on Newsnight last night . The announcement yesterday will no doubt increase uptake from younger people ( by coercion ) so by September the Govt may then change their mind about passports as enough younger people have now had the vaccine by then ( they hope ) . It’s classic blackmail really . I believe statistically younger people are more at risk of health issues from the vaccines rather than covid ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said: 😂The Great Wall of Immunity will be yet another world-leading British success story, Guv.👍 Rousing Enzo!! Just what we need. We have a wall of immunity with which we shall fight it on the beaches; we shall fight it in the supermarkets; we shall fight it in the nightclubs; we shall never surrender. No more hiding behind or lounging on our sofas. (This is tongue in cheek) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back to 2005 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 hour ago, JimmyCant said: That’s nonsense. Without lockdown the NHS in some parts of the country would have been overwhelmed. Even with lockdown some parts where overwhelmed. That’s where Boris’s pile the bodies high quote came from because that’s precisely what would have happened without lockdowns. Dying people would have been turned away and left to die. That seems to be the preferred outcome for the anti vaccine anti lockdown tree hugging mob. Rubbish. Explain Florida and Texas. Open for months and no worse off than any state that was locked down. The NHS is always on the brink of being overwhelmed. Anti vaccine tree hugging mob?! Good f*****g god. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, Lord BJ said: We will need to disagree. i really don’t see how staff make this fail, this vast majority of people will take the jab. So those who don’t, won’t be considered for a position a vaccinated person will; a few places have done it already for new contracts Whilst, clubs will enforce if it means they can make money. It’s difficult to make money when you have been forced to shut. I have little doubt there will curtain twitchers around the club doing their civic duty! Clubs may close but those who adapt to new world will get stronger. Demand remains its just supply changing. I agree it’s about behavioural management. I have long said the easiest way to increase up take amongst youngsters/reluctant would tell them they can go on holiday or whatever without a jab. I expect people will moan for a bit but essentially get it done As I said said this earlier, this isn’t about perfection it’s about reducing risk in areas. Anyway, like most conversations this morning suspect we’ve reached the conclusion. Take it easy. 👍 Happy to agree to disagree Lord BJ and I don't think we're miles apart here anyway ideologically...more just disagree on how it actually plays out. Totally agree about the holidays bit. That's the ideal tool really. Even I, who's opposed vehemently to mandatory vaccination domestically completely accepts it for travel abroad. Their country, their rules. The message could have been so simple "You won't be able to travel abroad without it". End of, queue moaning but ultimately excellent uptake (which we've actually got anyway, the uptake must defy even the wildest hopes of the govt.) Enjoy your day and keep safe 👍👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 47 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: B follows A does not mean B was caused by A. looks like lockdowns often work particularly well during the summer months 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: looks like lockdowns often work particularly well during the summer months 🤷♂️ Ah the balmy summer of February 2021. Glorious so it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said: Rubbish. Explain Florida and Texas. Open for months and no worse off than any state that was locked down. The NHS is always on the brink of being overwhelmed. Anti vaccine tree hugging mob?! Good f*****g god. They always use that language to discredit and ridicule opposing views . Best to not rise to the bait 18 minutes ago, Lord BJ said: i have long stopped worrying about things i can’t control. I’m also genuinely unsure on how I feel around the whole issue. The nightclub wasn’t the first indication that double jab get more freedoms. That has been the case for holidays for a few weeks, whilst in England isolation requirement are removed from double jab for close contacts in August I don’t see this being Bojo pill tax moment. There is far too much support for vaccine passport from the older age groups. Criticism of Bojo isn’t about him being cautious the exact opposite I think you’d be surprised how much support for vaccine passports exist. I’m very much libertarian and even I’m unsure how I feel on it I agree there is a strong likliehood we get enough people vaccinated that it ends up getting scrapped here. Albeit I think it will be a requirement for international travel. Well we will need to disagree regarding this being his poll tax moment . Problem is mainstream media will not report any demos etc regarding this . They will have plenty items supporting vaccine passports though . That’s for sure . Im Not “ worried “ About vaccine passports I’m more angry . There is a difference . Edited July 20, 2021 by JamesM48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: Ah the balmy summer of February 2021. Glorious so it was. key words being “often” and “particularly” - have another we look at the graph see where the wee waves are particularly low also have a wee look at past respiratory graphs and see how they manage to drop without lockdowns as we move towards the more balmy times as enzo said A doesn’t necessarily cause B and certainly very unlikely that A would be the only reason - very one-dimensional thinking would be required to accept that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: key words being “often” and “particularly” - have another we look at the graph see where the wee waves are particularly low also have a wee look at past respiratory graphs and see how they manage to drop without lockdowns as we move towards the more balmy times as enzo said A doesn’t necessarily cause B and certainly very unlikely that A would be the only reason - very one-dimensional thinking would be required to accept that Have a wee look at the graph and see when the lockdowns were introduced. Also have a wee look at the calendar and note that it is currently peak summer and that cases are rocketing again, and that hospitalisations are only doing so more slowly thanks to the vaccines. Edited July 20, 2021 by Ray Gin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyCant Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said: Rubbish. Explain Florida and Texas. Open for months and no worse off than any state that was locked down. The NHS is always on the brink of being overwhelmed. Anti vaccine tree hugging mob?! Good f*****g god. Florida and Texas ? No 2 & 3 in the infection list by state. No 2 & 4 in the death list by state. That Florida and Texas aye ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: Have a wee look at the graph and see when the lockdowns were introduced. Also have a wee look at the calendar and note that it is currently peak summer and that cases are rocketing again, and that hospitalisations are only doing so more slowly thanks to the vaccines. June, July, August and September last year were sans-lockdown and it stayed below 10,000 cases per day. Did the lockdown bring it down to that level? Quite possibly but it doesn't explain why it then took 5 months for it to get back to there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 James is up a few rungs on the evolutionary ladder today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, Taffin said: June, July, August and September last year were sans-lockdown and it stayed below 10,000 cases per day. Did the lockdown bring it down to that level? Quite possibly but it doesn't explain why it then took 5 months for it to get back to there. We were still in quite strict restrictions until August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, Ray Gin said: We were still in quite strict restrictions until August. Oh sorry, I thought the argument was lockdown was the cause. No worries 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, Taffin said: Oh sorry, I thought the argument was lockdown was the cause. No worries 👍 Complete lockdown got the numbers right down and restrictions kept them there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, Ray Gin said: Complete lockdown got the numbers right down and restrictions kept them there. You posted the graph in response to someone who specifically mentioned lockdown. Lockdown and restrictions is a different kettle of fish imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Taffin said: Oh sorry, I thought the argument was lockdown was the cause. No worries 👍 its like the Sweden debate from the same poster (and others) - when they appeared to be doing well they were following restrictions albeit not a mandated lockdown but much the same - when they appeared to be going badly it was because they weren’t in lockdown - as I said real one-dimensional thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, Taffin said: You posted the graph in response to someone who specifically mentioned lockdown. Lockdown and restrictions is a different kettle of fish imo. I'm not sure what your point is. The graph clearly shows the the lockdowns brought the numbers down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: its like the Sweden debate from the same poster (and others) - when they appeared to be doing well they were following restrictions albeit not a mandated lockdown but much the same - when they appeared to be going badly it was because they weren’t in lockdown - as I said real one-dimensional thinking How come cases are rocketing now in the middle of summer? How come cases dipped in the middle of winter? How does that fit in to your theory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: Have a wee look at the graph and see when the lockdowns were introduced. Also have a wee look at the calendar and note that it is currently peak summer and that cases are rocketing again, and that hospitalisations are only doing so more slowly thanks to the vaccines. just to try to clear this up in a minimum amount of posts - I believe lockdown helps to reduce the spread and is a useful short-term tool (albeit at a considerable cost often to the unseen most vulnerable) - seen plenty so-called anti-lockdown scientists agree that lockdowns have a part to play do you believe there is a seasonal element to that graph or all lockdown driven ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyCant Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, jonesy said: Not one to pish on your cornflakes, B22k5, but the NYT this week reporting that Florida cases are starting to increase dangerously again. Shame, really - was hoping the States would start accepting double-dosed UK tourists by Christmas so I could take the family on a well-deserved break (doubt we're getting to visit relatives in the Land of the Bat Munchers without prohibitively expensive quarantines any time soon) to saccharine theme parks and ridiculous portion serving restaurants for Christmas. Don't see it happening any time soon - I imagine the States and China could probably survive without international tourism quite comfortably given the size and spending power of the domestic market. Note that the US is unlikely to accept AZ vax certificates as being valid. That’s their position at the moment. Might change of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ray Gin said: How come cases are rocketing now in the middle of summer? How come cases dipped in the middle of winter? How does that fit in to your theory? i don’t necessarily believe this but to reply in a similar way to I believe you do - people let their guard down in the summer people and are more careful in the winter - exactly at the times you refer to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Just now, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: i don’t necessarily believe this but to reply in a similar way to I believe you do - people let their guard down in the summer people and are more careful in the winter - exactly at the times you refer to If people are more careful in the winter, why did cases rocket in December? If people are more likely to let their guard down in the summer, why were cases dropping in June last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyCant Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: How come cases are rocketing now in the middle of summer? How come cases dipped in the middle of winter? How does that fit in to your theory? Because most of the highly effective lockdown measures were taken off weeks ago. Add that to a much lower level of compliance going back weeks if not months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: I'm not sure what your point is. The graph clearly shows the the lockdowns brought the numbers down. You used a graph to show that lockdowns protect the NHS which was what the other poster said it didn't do (I don't agree with them necessarily). That graph you chose shows that the NHS remained 'protected' for 5 months when there was no lockdown in place which brings into question whether the lockdown reducing cases was correlation, or causation. Would we have seen the same curve without lockdown but with the same restrictions that were in place during those 5 months? Maybe, maybe not but the graph doesn't show either definitively...it just shows what happened, not what caused it. So telling people to take a closer look at it doesn't mean anything, unless they go so cross eyed that their brain starts connecting dots that the graph doesn't connect with data. Edited July 20, 2021 by Taffin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, Victorian said: James is up a few rungs on the evolutionary ladder today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Taffin said: You used a graph to show that lockdowns protect the NHS. That graph you chose shows that the NHS remained 'protected' for 5 months when there was no lockdown in place which brings into question whether the lockdown reducing cases was correlation, or causation. Would we have seen the same curve without lockdown but with the same restrictions that were in place during those 5 months? Maybe, maybe not but the graph doesn't show either definitively...it just shows what happened, not what caused it. So telling people to take a closer look at it doesn't mean anything, unless they go so cross eyed that their brain starts connecting dots that the graph doesn't connect with data. The graph shows quite clearly 3 times that cases rocketed and that 3 times the lockdown brought them sharply back down again. The graph also shows that last summer, when we had heavy restrictions in place, the numbers remained suppressed. The graph also shows that this summer, with no such restrictions, there is a small rise again however this is smaller due to the vaccines. The cases graph shows a massive rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back to 2005 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, JimmyCant said: Florida and Texas ? No 2 & 3 in the infection list by state. No 2 & 4 in the death list by state. That Florida and Texas aye ? Seems more below average to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 We need more lockdowns and restrictions imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: The graph shows quite clearly 3 times that cases rocketed and that 3 times the lockdown brought them sharply back down again. No it doesn't. It shows that 3 times cases of people in hospital rocketed and then came back down during a period of lockdown, it doesn't show why it happened. You're making a solid conclusion that may very well be correct, but that graph doesn't show that and no amount of looking at it closer makes it show that. All that graph shows is a correlation between the two. Quote The graph also shows that last summer, when we had heavy restrictions in place, the numbers remained suppressed. So it was restrictions protecting the NHS at that point, not lockdowns. That curve downward during lockdown may have happened had thet introduced those restrictions rather than a lockdown, equally, it may not have. Neither of us know whether it would have, or wouldn't have, certainly not from that graph. Quote The graph also shows that this summer, with no such restrictions, there is a small rise again however this is smaller due to the vaccines. The cases graph shows a massive rise. Again, is it due to vaccines? It probably is, but the graph doesn't show that. Edit: I don't fundamentally disagree with the point you are making but making out others can't decipher the graph correctly just because they aren't making the assumptions (which they are based solely on the graph) you are is wrong. Edited July 20, 2021 by Taffin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: If people are more careful in the winter, why did cases rocket in December? If people are more likely to let their guard down in the summer, why were cases dropping in June last year? at these exact times (allowing for lead-in time) people dropped their guard or raised their guard due to complacency or fear due to what had happened just before - the shape of the graph can be explained by that - probably (in fact almost certainly) if we investigated further there would have been the necessary raise or drop in temperature at the right times too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said: We need more lockdowns and restrictions imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: at these exact times (allowing for lead-in time) people dropped their guard or raised their guard due to complacency or fear due to what had happened just before - the shape of the graph can be explained by that - probably (in fact almost certainly) if we investigated further there would have been the necessary raise or drop in temperature at the right times too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back to 2005 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 41 minutes ago, jonesy said: Not one to pish on your cornflakes, B22k5, but the NYT this week reporting that Florida cases are starting to increase dangerously again. Shame, really - was hoping the States would start accepting double-dosed UK tourists by Christmas so I could take the family on a well-deserved break (doubt we're getting to visit relatives in the Land of the Bat Munchers without prohibitively expensive quarantines any time soon) to saccharine theme parks and ridiculous portion serving restaurants for Christmas. Don't see it happening any time soon - I imagine the States and China could probably survive without international tourism quite comfortably given the size and spending power of the domestic market. Point is though Florida has been open for months and this didn't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 This thread today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back to 2005 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Texas: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: just to confirm do you believe there is a seasonal element to that graph or is it all lockdown driven? as I said very easy to come up with spurious reasons for things apparently happening or even going further and copying one or two links which appear to back the case (which could easily be countered by one or two other equally reliable links) one-dimensional thinking tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, redjambo said: This thread today. do you think there’s a seasonal element to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, jonesy said: Im 38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: just to confirm do you believe there is a seasonal element to that graph or is it all lockdown driven? as I said very easy to come up with spurious reasons for things apparently happening or even going further and copying one or two links which appear to back the case (which could easily be countered by one or two other equally reliable links) one-dimensional thinking tho I don't think there is a significant seasonal element beyond people spending more times indoors in winter. We've seen cases rising in Spring 2020, Autumn 2020, Winter 2020/21 and now Summer 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: do you think there’s a seasonal element to this? Oh no, you don't. I'm leaving you all to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Ok riddle me this one . So one of my relatives had covid last week . He felt like it was a “ bad cold “ . Anyway he is fine now . I wasn’t worried as he’s fit as fiddle , does triathlons the lot . So now he has had covid he will now have the anti bodies against it . So why on would she get a vaccine which might cause more physical harm than positives ? Therefore why would he need a passport vaccine ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroon Sailor Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 These fecking chimps counting down the clock to midnight to get into a nightclub. Tears and snotters when they cannae get in come September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Pythagoras Theorem was just one guy's opinion imo. There were other ways to explain them sums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said: do you think there’s a seasonal element to this? Not really I’m bonkers all year round ! 😞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoncurMacdonaldMercer Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, redjambo said: Oh no, you don't. I'm leaving you all to it. just thought you might want to add your acquired knowledge to the debate - like I said about Victorian the other day I don’t often agree with him but he posts a lot of decent stuff (imo) - you likewise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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