Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[JudyJudyJudy]

9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Re: your 9 month old daughter. That sounds exactly like my niece at 9 months old. Way before the pandemic. And my nephew before her. 

She'll remember nothing of this whole experience so you don't need to worry about her being an emotional wreck for the rest of her life. 

 

 

The first 5 years are critical to a child in regards to their brain development . This is a scientific fact . If they experience trauma / abuse / neglect at this time this can and does impact on the rest of their lives in many ways , behaviours , relationships , attachment issues etc . These are facts not me just spouting anything to argue with you . Basically after 5 your life is almost pre determined due to early years experiences . However therapy etc can “ fix “ many of the issues. Unfortunately some won’t be “ fixed “ 

[Ray Gin]

Just now, JamesM48 said:

The first 5 years are critical to a child in regards to their brain development . This is a scientific fact . If they experience trauma / abuse / neglect at this time this can and does impact on the rest of their lives in many ways , behaviours , relationships , attachment issues etc . These are facts not me just spouting anything to argue with you . Basically after 5 your life is almost pre determined due to early years experiences . However therapy etc can “ fix “ many of the issues. Unfortunately some won’t be “ fixed “ 

 

They aren't suffering trauma, abuse or neglect unless they have shite parents. They'd still have those shite parents, lockdown or not.

 

 

[kila]

I saw a few wee kids walking to school today with the biggest smile on their faces getting to be with their pals without parents present.

 

Being in a strict locked down over winter is shit, but now spring is here and the sun is shining I think kids will exit their mini-hibernation and surprise us a little with their reliance.

 

[Ray Gin]

Just now, jonesy said:

While I would be the first to suggest it all starts with the parenting, you cannot overlook the fact that the government have attempted to ensure compliance by using strategies that engender fear. Fear makes people do illogical and harmful things. But, if you're now advocating personal responsibility, that's cool. Welcome to dark side.

 

Kids have been given top priority throughout as the government strategy. They've had nothing like the restrictions placed on adults, and we have been told of the low risk to young children throughout. 

[Weakened Offender]

33 minutes ago, Captain Sausage said:

 what a shite take. 
 

A couple of months is now 12 months. My 9 month old daughter cries whenever she is spoken to by anyone but her immediate family as she isn’t used to other people. 
 

My toddler cannot spend time with his pals from school outside of school or at weekends and it’s been like this virtually throughout the pandemic. 
 

Anyone who doesn’t think the pandemic will have an enormous impact on the younger kids is an idiot. They’re all having it drummed into them that there’s this silent killer that means they can’t be near friends, they can’t hug family, they can’t share anything with each other will inevitably have long term psychological impacts. 
 

But hey, they’ve not witnessed a parent die or been sexually abused so they’ll be right as rain. **** off. 

 

I wouldn't be too worried about the 9 month old crying a lot there pal. I'm a father, grandfather and uncle and that's not too uncommon, trust me. They get past it.

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Kids have been given top priority throughout as the government strategy. They've had nothing like the restrictions placed on adults, and we have been told of the low risk to young children throughout. 

 

If kids were given the top priority throughout then there wouldn't have been a lockdown beyond the first one. They've maybe been top priority in the category of those not being treated as a priority, sure.

[Weakened Offender]

15 minutes ago, kila said:

I saw a few wee kids walking to school today with the biggest smile on their faces getting to be with their pals without parents present.

 

Being in a strict locked down over winter is shit, but now spring is here and the sun is shining I think kids will exit their mini-hibernation and surprise us a little with their reliance.

 

 

Absolutely, its been a tough two months for young kids, that week in the snow apart maybe, but being back in school will make a huge difference to their lives. 

 

 

[Weakened Offender]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

If kids were given the top priority throughout then there wouldn't have been a lockdown beyond the first one. They've maybe been top priority in the category of those not being treated as a priority, sure.

 

A lot of kids have still been going to school during this lockdown. Not hubs, schools. Thousands across Edinburgh. There were still groups of children prioritised. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

An extract from the Imperial College modelling which was input to the Government's decision making a couple of weeks ago. The Government actually went further than the scenarios modelled by proposing the lifting of all restrictions four weeks earlier than modelled in Scenarios 5a and 5b, which are closest to the current plans in England.

 

Summary
1. Due to eligibility and vaccine hesitancy, vaccination alone will not be sufficient to keep the epidemic under control. NPIs must be lifted slowly and cautiously to minimise the number of deaths and prevent high hospital occupancy, with some baseline NPIs remaining in place (and adhered to) throughout 2021 and beyond.
2. It is critical to achieve and maintain high vaccine uptake and roll out before easing NPIs.
3. Assuming optimistic vaccine efficacy, even if 3.2M vaccine doses/week are given up to 12 July (3.9M thereafter), only 46% of the population will be protected against disease (due to vaccination or recovery from infection) at the date of full NPI lifting in scenario 1 (26 April 2021), 60% in scenario 4 (2 August), and 65% in scenario 5a (16 July) (Fig 1A).
4. Relaxing too quickly (scenario 1) will result in peak hospital occupancy considerably higher than the current wave and substantial additional deaths (Fig 1E-F). This holds regardless of vaccine efficacy, roll out, adherence to baseline NPIs, and impact of seasonality.
5. Scenario 4 will still result in a substantial additional number of deaths (58,200, 95%CrI 31,000 - 95,300) by June 2022 in our main analysis.
6. Scenarios 5a and 5b where NPIs return to Tier-1 like restrictions on 27th April and 11th May 2021, and are fully lifted on 16th July 2021, result in a smaller but prolonged wave of hospitalisations compared to the current wave, and lead to an additional 55,000 (95%CrI:33,200 - 81,200) and 54,800 (95%CrI: 32,600 - 82,900) deaths, respectively.
7. Our results are highly dependent on the assumed (optimistic) vaccine efficacy, uptake, and roll-out speed. Due to the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions, it is critical to rapidly assess the true effectiveness of vaccination within the population as it may be lower than clinical efficacy reported in trial settings. Our results also assume no loss of infection- or vaccine-induced immunity on the time horizon of the analysis. Characterising the duration of vaccine-immunity will be critically important.
8. With a lower vaccine efficacy, all scenarios would lead to a third wave of hospitalisations larger than or comparable in magnitude to the current wave (Fig 3-A2).
9. A return to higher transmissibility levels after NPIs are lifted will also lead to a third wave of hospitalisations comparable in magnitude to the current wave (Fig 3-A1). Therefore, whilst the impact of Test Trace Isolate (TTI), mask wearing, hand hygiene, and COVID security on R is difficult to quantify, it will be vital to emphasise the importance of normalising and ensuring adherence to all measures even after “full lifting” is achieved.
10. Assessing the impact of each relaxation before committing to the next phase is critical. Impact of waning immunity and other VOC is particularly difficult to assess at present. 

A lot of scientific modellers obviously worried about having to go back to the day job and curtail their TV appearances.  Perhaps they could model a scenario where 60m are stopped from living just to "save" a few people from Covid.

[Taffin]

6 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

A lot of kids have still been going to school during this lockdown. Not hubs, schools. Thousands across Edinburgh. There were still groups of children prioritised. 

 

Of course. They weren't top priority though. I'm not arguing they should have been, just pointing out they weren't.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Taffin

[Footballfirst]

2 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

A lot of scientific modellers obviously worried about having to go back to the day job and curtail their TV appearances.  Perhaps they could model a scenario where 60m are stopped from living just to "save" a few people from Covid.

I've not attempted to argue one way or anther about the expected death toll. However, it is information that is shaping the choices of Governments all over.  Certainly in England, they appear to have adopted a policy that assumes that many more will die as a result of Covid. One assumes that the death rate is at a level they are comfortable with.

[manaliveits105]

whurs Nicky ?

[theshed]

7 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

whurs Nicky ?

Is this the first times she’s not done the update on a Monday in last year? 
 

She probably practicing her speech for Wednesday 

[Fxxx the SPFL]

2 hours ago, jonnothejambo said:

 

 

Hope you're well Ray. Looking out daily for the blue envelope. Hopefully not too long. 

Yeah keeping an eye out although Freeman has said that a good chunk of 60-64's had had their vaccine and also mentioned 55-59 and 50-54 didn't realise they were doing them as well especially given the low numbers vaccinated in the last week. The quicker the better for everyone i would rather my kids got the vaccine before me i'm not too worried about catching it all the boozers are shut lol.

[Maroon Sailor]

11 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

whurs Nicky ?

 

Getting her statement proof read by her husband

[Fxxx the SPFL]

2 minutes ago, theshed said:

Is this the first times she’s not done the update on a Monday in last year? 
 

She probably practicing her speech for Wednesday 

with her answers along the lines of 'i can't recall that was said at that meeting' blah blah she's oot the door. Jeane Freeman is actually pretty decent.

[redjambo]

Blooming' eck, only 386 positive cases reported today, down from 715 a week ago, and no reports of data issues.

 

However, yet another "IT issue" means that vaccination figures are not yet available for today. Fire the SG's IT department, I say, or upgrade their main computer from a ZX Spectrum.

[JudyJudyJudy]

And all this time I could have saved a fortune  on bleach 😂

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/28/clean-break-the-risk-of-catching-covid-from-surfaces-overblown-experts-say?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1HSFylRybjeWSf1pYVLsKe4BGz4cs2-ErQ5nurzu3mRUcDaXuZ4Z2-Zv4#Echobox=1614593282

Edited March 1, 2021 by JamesM48

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

 

Sorry, had to use the infamous dog for that one, Ray.

 

I agree that kids may not have had the restrictions placed on them directly (although one might consider depriving them of their right to the highest possible standard of education and being able to play football/rugby and attend Scouts, Beavers, Boys Brigade etc as being pretty severe restrictions in their context, non?), but it would be naïve and or disingenuous to think that the randomly shifting, often arbitrary and always stressful restrictions placed on their parents as not having a knock on children, who truly are the most vulnerable in our society.

 

That's OK, I'll use the more traditional cornette back at you. 

 

Oh no they couldn't go to the Boys Brigade, however will they recover? 

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

I think you're a shoe-in for the job, Red. You can always ask this entire thread for a reference  

 

Oh no you don't. Too much responsibility for this humble stat monkey.

[Dennis Reynolds]

13 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

And all this time I could have saved a fortune  on bleach 😂

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/28/clean-break-the-risk-of-catching-covid-from-surfaces-overblown-experts-say?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1HSFylRybjeWSf1pYVLsKe4BGz4cs2-ErQ5nurzu3mRUcDaXuZ4Z2-Zv4#Echobox=1614593282

 

I'm glad this is finally getting some traction. 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, LMc said:

 

I'm glad this is finally getting some traction. 

 

In defence of James, I too wiped my messages for the first few months of Covid with antiseptic wet wipes. We didn't know exactly how the virus was transmitted, it didn't take long to do, and it gave peace of mind. It's good to see that it probably wasn't really necessary, but I don't regret doing it. We live and learn.

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I think you are overplaying the "trauma" of having a couple of months of lockdown (where they are still allowed to go outside for exercise).

 

It's hardly akin to the trauma of watching your mother being run over by a lorry or being fiddled by a priest, is it? They'll be back to school in a few weeks. They'll be fine.

 

 

The trauma of your mother dying in an ambulance in a queue a mile from the hospital without treatment then her dead body dumped in a hole because the morturies were full. 

 

"Why did they not treat her". 

 

"Well people wanted their freedom to do what they wanted and a few people said lockdown causes more problems".

[JudyJudyJudy]

8 minutes ago, LMc said:

 

I'm glad this is finally getting some traction. 

Makes me wonder if it was a pile of crap and was just used to pile on the fear factor . It certainly did with me 

[JudyJudyJudy]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

In defence of James, I too wiped my messages for the first few months of Covid with antiseptic wet wipes. We didn't know exactly how the virus was transmitted, it didn't take long to do, and it gave peace of mind. It's good to see that it probably wasn't really necessary, but I don't regret doing it. We live and learn.

Yea same here ! I stopped doing it months ago . 

[Weakened Offender]

23 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Anecdotal evidence suggests that, up until very recently, kids attending these hubs/school were simply being given games and worksheets to complete. It was hardly 'school' as we know it, Jim.

 

They were at school. Socialising and learning. 

[Costanza]

2 hours ago, jonesy said:

Not forgetting, too, that excess deaths - that stick that some lockdown supporters use to beat those who would see a quicker end to restrictions - are likely to remain high when CV19 is prioritised ahead of the passé stuff like cancer, diabetes and heart disease. However, once those suffering from such illnesses are admitted to hospital (often in a too little, too late scenario, and possibly because routine checkups have been missed), then they may well contract CV19 and end up in the CV19 stats.

This is true regarding lockdown having a negative impact on other illnesses and potentially picking up Covid but we also need to factor in people who survive Covid but die a few months later because of health complications caused/aggravated by Covid, but presumably aren't marked as covid deaths and also long term ill health caused by Covid.

 

We need to look at everything in the round and not just focus on mortality either.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-death-long-covid-b1804704.html

 

[Don Dan]

44 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

whurs Nicky ?

Eaves dropping on James Hamilton and Alex Salmond inquiry interview 

[Weakened Offender]

8 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

They were at school. Socialising and learning. 

 

And being fed. 

[Dennis Reynolds]

9 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Makes me wonder if it was a pile of crap and was just used to pile on the fear factor . It certainly did with me 

 

Nah I think it's always better to go the extra mile especially with a new virus that they really didn't know much about. Better to be extra safe I guess. One of these ones where they're damned if they do, damned if they don't!

 

Surface transmission of a virus is always going to be difficult but proper hand washing is king!

[Ray Gin]

26 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

 

Well done for misrepresenting my post and responding in a childish manner. I actually quite like having people on here I disagree with - it helps everyone to either modify or develop their view and argument on things. But you, you're just a:

 

 

Personal abuse is not allowed on the forum. Stop bullying me.

 

[Ray Gin]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Okay. I'm sorry you're a *****.  

 

Bully.

 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

 

It's nigh-on impossible to get a true picture on how both the virus and our reaction to it affected/is affecting/will affect people's lives with any sense of completeness.

 

But you can get a lot of information.

 

In particular you can assess how pre existing inequalities link to outcomes. Which is the main issue with lockdown too.

 

Probably those making decisions are in the group generally doing okay in life perhaps with some deaths in families but coping okay otherwise. 

 

Some big affects that started years ago in equalities and poor underlying health. 

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

I'd suggest you should probably stop trivialising bullying. 

 

I'd suggest you stop bullying people.

 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Fair enough. I think in the end it it is all pretty subjective, and 'evidence' can easily be found to argue all sides, depending on how far you wish to go to dig it up.

 

Good

 

Just live by conspiracy theory then. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

2 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Nobody is stopping kids from going outdoors for exercise.

 

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Kids have been given top priority throughout as the government strategy. They've had nothing like the restrictions placed on adults, and we have been told of the low risk to young children throughout. 

Love the disregard for childrens mental health. Children losing trust in what they are told, not meeting friends and no schooling. 

They have been nowhere near top, so far below senior citizens as to be invisible. Then they come below health service staff, they come below teachers and they come below sports people. That's as a quick review. 

Still, who cares really, they will somehow recover from losing years schooling, two years with no exams, students living away from home and confined to staying in solitary confinement whilst building up some nice debt. 

 

[Mikey1874]

Just now, jonesy said:

That's not what I was getting at, and you know it, Mikey. 

 

Christ, we're getting near the end of lockdown (hopefully), and some people are getting real tetchy.

 

I thought you said data should be treated as 'subjective'. 

 

Say that the male life expectancy in Glasgow is 20 years less than in  the richest areas. You say that is subjective. 

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

With the risk of this derailing a good thread and perhaps hitting some sensitive spots from last week with other posters, feel free to elaborate by PM, where we can hopefully thrash this out in a civilised, gentlemanly (assuming you're a man) manner as befitting Hearts fans (assuming you're a Hearts fan).

 

I don't need to elaborate. Simply make your points without resorting to insulting people and using offensive terms and you won't be accused of bullying - an accusation you hypocritically threw at red last week for using considerably less harsh terms than those used by yourself.

[Ray Gin]

5 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

 

Love the disregard for childrens mental health. Children losing trust in what they are told, not meeting friends and no schooling. 

They have been nowhere near top, so far below senior citizens as to be invisible. Then they come below health service staff, they come below teachers and they come below sports people. That's as a quick review. 

Still, who cares really, they will somehow recover from losing years schooling, two years with no exams, students living away from home and confined to staying in solitary confinement whilst building up some nice debt. 

 

 

Schools are last to close and first to re-open. Kids have been allowed to go outside and meet friends. If under 11 they weren't subjected to the 2/2 rule.

[Enzo Chiefo]

9 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That's not what I was getting at, and you know it, Mikey. 

 

Christ, we're getting near the end of lockdown (hopefully), and some people are getting real tetchy.

Some people just like being told what to do and to sub-contract their thinking process to govts and scientists 

[Nookie Bear]

57 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Sorry, had to use the infamous dog for that one, Ray.

 

I agree that kids may not have had the restrictions placed on them directly (although one might consider depriving them of their right to the highest possible standard of education and being able to play football/rugby and attend Scouts, Beavers, Boys Brigade etc as being pretty severe restrictions in their context, non?), but it would be naïve and or disingenuous to think that the randomly shifting, often arbitrary and always stressful restrictions placed on their parents as not having a knock on children, who truly are the most vulnerable in our society.

 

Spot on. It has particularly difficult for kids with both parents working (even from home) - they are literally just left to their own devices for large parts of the day.

[Nookie Bear]

2 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Schools are last to close and first to re-open. Kids have been allowed to go outside and meet friends. If under 11 they weren't subjected to the 2/2 rule.

 

Young kids can only go where their parents go so they are severely restricted still.

[Ray Gin]

5 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

 

Young kids can only go where their parents go so they are severely restricted still.

 

They're back at school/nursery now.

 

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 1 March 2021

Summary

• 386 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-186] [down from 715 a week ago]
• 9,982 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 4.5% of these were positive [-7,681; +0.7%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends) [-2]
• 71 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-7]
• 824 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-13]
• 1,593,695* people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 76,512 have received their second dose

* Due to IT issues, the latest vaccinations data relates to the position as at 7:30am on Sunday 28 February. Work is ongoing to resolve these issues and an update will be published as soon as the data is available.

[pablo]

1 hour ago, manaliveits105 said:

whurs Nicky ?

 

Getting coached (at tax payer's expense) on how to get her story straight for Wednesday?

[DETTY29]

27 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Scottish numbers: 1 March 2021

Summary

• 386 new cases of COVID-19 reported [-186] [down from 715 a week ago]
• 9,982 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 4.5% of these were positive [-7,681; +0.7%]
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends) [-2]
• 71 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-7]
• 824 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-13]
• 1,593,695* people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 76,512 have received their second dose

* Due to IT issues, the latest vaccinations data relates to the position as at 7:30am on Sunday 28 February. Work is ongoing to resolve these issues and an update will be published as soon as the data is available.

The Public Health Scotland Dashboard has been updated

 

1st - 1,611,578 (+17883) - 35.5% of 16+ 

2nd - 78865 (+2353) - 1.7% of 16+

 

If I've got my figures correct means 166,090 1st doses and 45,223 2nd doses last week.

Edited March 1, 2021 by DETTY29

[redjambo]

The highly efficient IT department at the SG have now decided not to update the spreadsheet that I use to get the council case figures daily. Hopefully they'll get round to it later, but today's 7-day stats will be delayed. I'm just hoping that they produce that spreadsheet at some point today. If they don't, my stats are a bit fecked going forward.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

The Public Health Scotland Dashboard has been updated

 

1st - 1,611,578 (+17883) - 35.5% of 16+

2nd - 78865 (+2353) - 1.7% of 16+

 

Thanks for the heads-up.

[Ray Gin]

19 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I did not accuse Red of bullying. You're telling porkies. 

 

I made a point earlier that you deliberately misrepresented in your reply. If you think being called a Fan A as a result is insulting and offensive, I suggest you take @Weakened Offender's advice and man up.

 

Not directly but you said you 'hesitated to use the B-word' when supporting another poster who made the claim, implying you had been thinking the same thing and were basically agreeing with him. 

 

Nice of you to take yet another pop at WO who hasn't even been involved in this discussion. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Ray Gin

[Auldbenches]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

True, Costanza.

 

It's nigh-on impossible to get a true picture on how both the virus and our reaction to it affected/is affecting/will affect people's lives with any sense of completeness.

I work for a mental health helpline and the weird thing is that we've hardly had any call since the first lockdown.  Practically every shift before it and only 3 since.  

Maybe people thinking that everyone's in the same boat or they don't want to clog up services etc. 

We did expect a big rise in people calling.