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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


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1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

Shut down travel, vaccinate and open up locally. Once countries are sufficiently vaccinated the corridors can be opened up between them.  

 

To think that by mid June we could be living not just in a more open tier but actually with virtually no restrictions except international travel, but then for that to be scuppered by some new variant and us going backwards again is more than I could take.

 

Also that doesn't have to be for too long. 

 

The vaccines are in a really good place. They can be developed for new variants. 

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2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Open up everything to generate revenue needed to fund a comprehensive shielding programme and support those who genuinely need to shield, to do so.

 

1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

Shut down travel, vaccinate and open up locally. Once countries are sufficiently vaccinated the corridors can be opened up between them.  

 

To think that by mid June we could be living not just in a more open tier but actually with virtually no restrictions except international travel, but then for that to be scuppered by some new variant and us going backwards again is more than I could take.

😞 I prefer Jonesy more realistic suggestion . It would benefit everyone in the long run . 

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Footballfirst
1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

Cases stagnating, everything else dropping nicely. Deaths down from 40 - 30 in the week.

Even cases are coming down, albeit slowly.   7 day average down from 826 last Thursday to 779 today (-6%)

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27 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Exactly ! It’s never ending fear to be perfectly . Live with it not in fear of it 

Live with it is what we will have to do and be vaccinated every year no doubt.

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10 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Live with it is what we will have to do and be vaccinated every year no doubt.

Yep ! 

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Regarding the elimination or eradication discussion. Professor Woolhouse says in the Scotsman.

Speaking at Holyrood’s Covid-19 committee, Professor Mark Woolhouse, chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said that Scotland was not close to eliminating the virus at any point in the epidemic due to a high level of cases going undetected in the community, even during the summer months when only a handful of cases a day were officially being reported.

Professor Woolhouse also warned that cases of the new dominant UK variant of coronavirus have hardly declined at all during lockdown, that the drop in cases north of the border was mainly attributable to a fall in cases of the old variant, while the number of cases of the new, so-called “Kent” variant, had “held steady”.

 

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/cases-of-new-coronavirus-variant-barely-reducing-in-scotland-3146520

 

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2 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

Regarding the elimination or eradication discussion. Professor Woolhouse says in the Scotsman.

Speaking at Holyrood’s Covid-19 committee, Professor Mark Woolhouse, chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said that Scotland was not close to eliminating the virus at any point in the epidemic due to a high level of cases going undetected in the community, even during the summer months when only a handful of cases a day were officially being reported.

Professor Woolhouse also warned that cases of the new dominant UK variant of coronavirus have hardly declined at all during lockdown, that the drop in cases north of the border was mainly attributable to a fall in cases of the old variant, while the number of cases of the new, so-called “Kent” variant, had “held steady”.

 

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/cases-of-new-coronavirus-variant-barely-reducing-in-scotland-3146520

 

 

Saying it was eradicated in Scotland in summer was political. 

 

'Follow the science'? 

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27 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Fair point, Ray.

 

Do you think a similar approach could/would have worked if implemented at the same time in the UK?

 

If all of the home nations were unified in the approach and stringently enforced it, possibly.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Saying it was eradicated in Scotland in summer was political. 

 

'Follow the science'? 

It was a (false) claim to allow Sturgeon to underpin her argument for tougher lockdowns and quarantine laws. 
 

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6 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Saying it was eradicated in Scotland in summer was political. 

 

'Follow the science'? 

 

Nobody claimed it was eradicated in Scotland.

 

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Weakened Offender
46 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Open up everything to generate revenue needed to fund a comprehensive shielding programme and support those who genuinely need to shield, to do so.

 

😁😁😁

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47 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Shut down travel, vaccinate and open up locally. Once countries are sufficiently vaccinated the corridors can be opened up between them.  

 

To think that by mid June we could be living not just in a more open tier but actually with virtually no restrictions except international travel, but then for that to be scuppered by some new variant and us going backwards again is more than I could take.

 

Indeed. No holiday abroad this year is a very small price to pay for being able live normally at home.

 

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Weakened Offender
48 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Shut down travel, vaccinate and open up locally. Once countries are sufficiently vaccinated the corridors can be opened up between them.  

 

To think that by mid June we could be living not just in a more open tier but actually with virtually no restrictions except international travel, but then for that to be scuppered by some new variant and us going backwards again is more than I could take.

 

This. 👍

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38 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Good news 

3B0D6DF3-7E30-4EC7-A897-4EA51BE36096.jpeg

 

More good news, I reckon we'll see some good vacation options later in the year. Can't wait 🌞😎

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9 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

It was a (false) claim to allow Sturgeon to underpin her argument for tougher lockdowns and quarantine laws. 
 

Yes unfortunately in her excitement of the heady days of last summer when deaths were zero and infections / hospital admission and icu were low she dared to dream she was God and all felt she had all but eradicated the virus in Scotland . Unsure what drugs she was on then 

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Toxteth O'Grady

On the face of it Cases are not coming down as fast as we might expect but they have been doing targeted testing in prisons and  big work places where there have been outbreaks. The overall positivity rate is coming down though. 

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14 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

On the face of it Cases are not coming down as fast as we might expect but they have been doing targeted testing in prisons and  big work places where there have been outbreaks. The overall positivity rate is coming down though. 

 

Seems to still be moving in the right direction though. I think Spring will bring with it an eccelerated drop off 👍🤞

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Toxteth O'Grady
7 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Seems to still be moving in the right direction though. I think Spring will bring with it an eccelerated drop off 👍🤞

As the vaccine goes down through the age groups there should be a continued  big improvement in the Hospital and death numbers. There might be an increase in cases in the young as things start to open up. 
 

 

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Weakened Offender
31 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

On the face of it Cases are not coming down as fast as we might expect but they have been doing targeted testing in prisons and  big work places where there have been outbreaks. The overall positivity rate is coming down though. 

 

More workplace asymptomatic testing being carried out now too. 

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Toxteth O'Grady
5 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

More workplace asymptomatic testing being carried out now too. 

Yes - they are hunting down cases which is a good thing 

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26 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

As the vaccine goes down through the age groups there should be a continued  big improvement in the Hospital and death numbers. There might be an increase in cases in the young as things start to open up. 
 

 

 

When we go back into the stupid tier system this is what worries me as cases might be high due to young people having it even though they don’t really show signs so we are put in a high tier even though hospital numbers are really low and hopefully no many deaths 

 

I hope they decide the tier you go into is based on the hospitals and deaths rates but more than likely be on the testing positive figures 

Edited by theshed
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1 hour ago, jonesy said:

But at what cost, Brian? That's always been my point. Industries, businesses and people have been, are being and will continue to be destroyed by lockdown. IMO, the self-inflicted damage incurred by massive shutdowns tip the scales towards 'cure worse than disease' type conclusions. The reality is that it will be nigh-on impossible to truly calculate (despite our best spreadsheeters being on the case :) ) the true cost of this. As a consequence, it will always be subjective.

 

 


Economists did calculate the losses at the start based on projections. They found that the cost and speed of recovering economically from losing people to the disease was much slower than recovery from a lockdown-induced depression. Whether they predicted three of these cursed things at the beginning I don't know, but again they might not have predicted over 100, 000 deaths either and as both go hand-in-hand, the outcomes found are probably solid. 

Borne out, I'd say, by how thorough the UK furlough system was until the ERG rabble started agitating and we ****ed up all our gains last summer. 

For me, protecting lives matters more as it ultimately tells us that society values its people over how productive people are, and that we are not just cogs in the economic machinery. Same reason I baulk completely at talk of "well, they only had 'X' years/months/days left" - that's veering into Logan's Run territory and, again, suggests that some people are no longer deemed of value due to age or no longer contributing to the economy. That's a very slippery slope to begin climbing down - would you want someone, once counselled by a Eugenics freak, deciding your worth? 

Citations:
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/to-save-the-economy-save-people-first
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Vu0wl-9K2dh8MpMqaO85MvE6UH7gcRLx/view
https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/rebelo/htm/epidemics.pdf
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/modelers-weigh-value-lives-and-lockdown-costs-put-price-covid-19 

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Footballfirst

The biggest "real world" vaccine study yet.

 

Thursday February 25 2021, 5.00pm, The Times

Ninety-two per cent of recipients of the Pfizer vaccine have been protected from developing severe symptoms of Covid-19, the most comprehensive study of the jab has found.

The study, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, was based on medical data from 1.2 million patients of Israel’s largest healthcare provider, half of whom were vaccinated by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It was conducted by a team of doctors and researchers led by Professor Ran Balicer of Israel’s Clalit Health Services, along with a team of senior researchers from Harvard University, and is the largest study of its kind to date.

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1 hour ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

As the vaccine goes down through the age groups there should be a continued  big improvement in the Hospital and death numbers. There might be an increase in cases in the young as things start to open up. 
 

 

Hospital and death numbers are all that matters.  " Cases" aka as infections are almost irrelevant but as ive said numerous times before it certainly makes the headlines. You say infections in the young may go up but its irreverent as the most vulinerable should all have been vaccinated and far less likely to die or be in hospital. 

34 minutes ago, theshed said:

 

When we go back into the stupid tier system this is what worries me as cases might be high due to young people having it even though they don’t really show signs so we are put in a high tier even though hospital numbers are really low and hopefully no many deaths 

 

I hope they decide the tier you go into is based on the hospitals and deaths rates but more than likely be on the testing positive figures 

Completely agree 

11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The biggest "real world" vaccine study yet.

 

Thursday February 25 2021, 5.00pm, The Times

Ninety-two per cent of recipients of the Pfizer vaccine have been protected from developing severe symptoms of Covid-19, the most comprehensive study of the jab has found.

The study, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, was based on medical data from 1.2 million patients of Israel’s largest healthcare provider, half of whom were vaccinated by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It was conducted by a team of doctors and researchers led by Professor Ran Balicer of Israel’s Clalit Health Services, along with a team of senior researchers from Harvard University, and is the largest study of its kind to date.

Great news

3 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

 

Only if they don't bother to vaccinate.

 

It has allowed stuff like this to be going on, which looks a lot more fun that what we are going through here:
 

210129014511-australia-open-adelaide-012

 

_113981005_gettyimages-1228075071.jpg

 

37430220-9100391-New_Zealand_reggae_grou

 

The Aussie open was fanless for 5 days due to an " outbreak". So it wasn't all roses. 

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I walked passed a furniture shop in Lothian road..." Futon " and it had a sign saying it is back opening March 15th.  Maybe they know something we dont. 

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3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Thanks for a thoughtful post, Gizmo. Always wary of my argument going into 'kill the old to help the young' territory, and your Logan's Run comment highlights that. 

 

I'll take a gander at the links later, much appreciated.

 

My only points of reply at the moment would be to first suggest that 'protecting lives' goes beyond simply keeping people alive. Quality of life, for those who are negatively impacted by lockdowns, should, IMO, be taken into consideration when setting out on such a self-destructive course as effectively calling a halt to the economy. It is this definition of what 'protecting' and 'saving' lives means that I feel has become too clouded and too emotional to have sensible discussions with most folk - not yourself, judging from the level headed and well-thought out post. I'm afraid that all the modelling in the world cannot change my, and many others' experience of the pandemic - that we have seen more negative effects on those around us of the restrictions - including death - than of the virus itself. And that's with no disrespect to anyone on here who has lost a loved one; it's simply an observation.

 

My second is to, once again, call out the double standards at play. If governments can find ways of 'protecting' lives due to a virus, they can do the same when it comes to other major causes of illness and death such as air quality. Yet, they choose not to, and indeed, there is no real clamour, beyond the Extinction Rebellion mob, to do anything about the way we conduct our daily lives and the damage this does, not only to every age group currently alive, but also future ones to come. That's why lockdown for Covid feels arbitrary and hypocritical. 

Good post Jonesy. In my opinion, the whole "saving lives", "don't kill granny" mantra was all about frightening and blackmailing the population. If we read out daily infection and death rates from a whole variety of respiratory illnesses, pneumonia, flu etc pre-pandemic, they could probably control us in a similar way. Lockdown was all about protecting the NHS, which, on a short term basis was understandable, but it should never be used as a long term tactic to control a virus. "Living" and "existing" are completely different concepts.

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5 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

Really don't know why scientists use terminology that they really don't mean, or not match the dictionary comparison.

Yes, agreed, Detty.

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Footballfirst
26 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Can anyone point me in the right direction as to the current regulations around children meeting up to play? 

 

It's my son's 9th birthday soon and he wants a kickaround in the local park with a handful of his pals. Appreciate that not everyone has the same opinion as I do about the validity, efficacy or need for the restrictions, so would like to be sensitive to other parents' concerns, and only set this up if it's currently allowed. Had a look at the SG website, but cannot find anything relevant.

This is the best match I can find.

 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-organised-activities-for-children/

 

It seems that children's outdoor activities are permitted, even at Level 4 which is where we are at.

 

See page 66 in this strategic framework document.

https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20201023135508/https://www.gov.scot/publications/covid-19-scotlands-strategic-framework/

Edited by Footballfirst
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14 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Good post Jonesy. In my opinion, the whole "saving lives", "don't kill granny" mantra was all about frightening and blackmailing the population. If we read out daily infection and death rates from a whole variety of respiratory illnesses, pneumonia, flu etc pre-pandemic, they could probably control us in a similar way. Lockdown was all about protecting the NHS, which, on a short term basis was understandable, but it should never be used as a long term tactic to control a virus. "Living" and "existing" are completely different concepts.

" the kill your granny" was probably the worse soundbite from the Govt. Inducing fear and great anxiety  in vulnerable young children and teenagers is unforgivable. 

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Nucky Thompson
23 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Can anyone point me in the right direction as to the current regulations around children meeting up to play? 

 

It's my son's 9th birthday soon and he wants a kickaround in the local park with a handful of his pals. Appreciate that not everyone has the same opinion as I do about the validity, efficacy or need for the restrictions, so would like to be sensitive to other parents' concerns, and only set this up if it's currently allowed. Had a look at the SG website, but cannot find anything relevant.

Going by the numbers sledging a couple of weeks ago, there doesn't seem to be any restrictions on kids playing outside

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38 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The biggest "real world" vaccine study yet.

 

Thursday February 25 2021, 5.00pm, The Times

Ninety-two per cent of recipients of the Pfizer vaccine have been protected from developing severe symptoms of Covid-19, the most comprehensive study of the jab has found.

The study, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, was based on medical data from 1.2 million patients of Israel’s largest healthcare provider, half of whom were vaccinated by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It was conducted by a team of doctors and researchers led by Professor Ran Balicer of Israel’s Clalit Health Services, along with a team of senior researchers from Harvard University, and is the largest study of its kind to date.

 

Excellent news, it seems that all the vaccines are proving to be highly effective, including the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, which I was hearing on CNN yesterday is the World's most ordered and is being administered in more countries than any of the other vaccines.

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manaliveits105
1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Going by the numbers sledging a couple of weeks ago, there doesn't seem to be any restrictions on kids playing outside

Don’t think there is 

you can meet up with one person from another household outside 

kids under 12 don’t count 

so you would think 1 or 2 adults could watch 10 kids under 12 play football outside 

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Weakened Offender
30 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Can anyone point me in the right direction as to the current regulations around children meeting up to play? 

 

It's my son's 9th birthday soon and he wants a kickaround in the local park with a handful of his pals. Appreciate that not everyone has the same opinion as I do about the validity, efficacy or need for the restrictions, so would like to be sensitive to other parents' concerns, and only set this up if it's currently allowed. Had a look at the SG website, but cannot find anything relevant.

 

It's definitely not allowed but you'll get away with it. Loads are doing it. Other parents might have a problem with it but I doubt it, they will maybe make an excuse but you'll not get any flak. 

 

Loads of kids are playing football on both Harrison Parks and the Meadows and Inverleith Park was mobbed the other day too. 

 

Go for it. 👍

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Interesting graph which illustrates that all continents have seen a downward slide in cases aka infections in the last 6 weeks....irrespective of many of the countries rolling out the vaccine...seasonal anyone??

EvFDtPvWYAse-Md.png

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10 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Going by the numbers sledging a couple of weeks ago, there doesn't seem to be any restrictions on kids playing outside

Its all about quality of life Jonesy....

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I seem to remember Germany had been said to be open to the use of the Russian vaccine.  Not sure if they could have gone it alone or if they are fully constrained within the EU procurement of vaccines.

 

The Russian vaccine will be the workhorse of the global programme.  It will end up vaccinating areas of the world that,  in turn,  will end up aiding us.

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Weakened Offender
15 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Cheers - as mentioned above, he's out playing every second day anyway, it's partly not wanting to put parents in an awkward position, and partly not fancying any particularly supercilious ones dobbing us in!

 

Ken, parents WhatsApp chats are a minefield. You have my sympathy. 

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Nucky Thompson

As of 8am this morning, 12,449 people were in hospital, the lowest since 10th November.

It's down 64% from 18th January when 34,336 Covid-19 patients were in hospital

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1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

Positive test results are not irrelevant, they are the indicator of what is going to happen next. We are a long way off it being irrelevant as it puts young people in hospitals too. 

 

It's like people can't remember the arguments of 6 months ago.  People who were concerned about rising infections were ridiculed on the basis that nobody was dying and the hospitals weren't full.  

 

Infections will always be relevant.  Hopefully less concerning.

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Nucky Thompson
4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Positive test results are not irrelevant, they are the indicator of what is going to happen next. We are a long way off it being irrelevant as it puts young people in hospitals too. 

The UK government aren't using infection rates as one of the 4 conditions of lifting lockdown restrictions.

It's only if infection rates cause a rise in hospital numbers and death

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Weakened Offender
4 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

As of 8am this morning, 12,449 people were in hospital, the lowest since 10th November.

It's down 64% from 18th January when 34,336 Covid-19 patients were in hospital

 

That's very encouraging.

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35 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Interesting graph which illustrates that all continents have seen a downward slide in cases aka infections in the last 6 weeks....irrespective of many of the countries rolling out the vaccine...seasonal anyone??

EvFDtPvWYAse-Md.png

 

Lockdowns. 

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1 hour ago, jonesy said:

Thanks for a thoughtful post, Gizmo. Always wary of my argument going into 'kill the old to help the young' territory, and your Logan's Run comment highlights that. 

 

I'll take a gander at the links later, much appreciated.

 

My only points of reply at the moment would be to first suggest that 'protecting lives' goes beyond simply keeping people alive. Quality of life, for those who are negatively impacted by lockdowns, should, IMO, be taken into consideration when setting out on such a self-destructive course as effectively calling a halt to the economy. It is this definition of what 'protecting' and 'saving' lives means that I feel has become too clouded and too emotional to have sensible discussions with most folk - not yourself, judging from the level headed and well-thought out post. I'm afraid that all the modelling in the world cannot change my, and many others' experience of the pandemic - that we have seen more negative effects on those around us of the restrictions - including death - than of the virus itself. And that's with no disrespect to anyone on here who has lost a loved one; it's simply an observation.

 

My second is to, once again, call out the double standards at play. If governments can find ways of 'protecting' lives due to a virus, they can do the same when it comes to other major causes of illness and death such as air quality. Yet, they choose not to, and indeed, there is no real clamour, beyond the Extinction Rebellion mob, to do anything about the way we conduct our daily lives and the damage this does, not only to every age group currently alive, but also future ones to come. That's why lockdown for Covid feels arbitrary and hypocritical. 


I don't disagree with the cost of lockdown, it's messed with my head and I bet most people have suffered loss and a lot of frustration, at a minimum. Folk who run smallish businesses must be suffering like crazy, as did the self-employed. Unfortunately, we might only be able to assess the trade-off after the pandemic and some people will have lost a lot, no question but I still believe the death statistics and long-term effects would have been much worse without it.* :( I'm not a knee-jerker as I would put my son's life ahead of his Grandmother's if it came to it, but equally I didn't for a second break any rules thinking, ah well she's 90+ so she's had her lot eh. I hate to see the common people treated like pawns - useful as cannon fodder or cogs in the machinery and viewed as worthless otherwise by self-appointed elites. 

With regards to air quality, I totally agree. Same with climate change. I wish we could concentrate that determination to find a way out of the pandemic, bottle it and put it towards other issues which, whilst easier to ignore or less tangible, have to be tackled now. The conspiracy mob and those who think they can master a scientific subject with a couple of youtube videos or FB posts don't help, as it spreads to the idiots and bad faith actors in parliament, and there are plenty of them.

 *The lockdown sucks because we know it should have been done sooner, much harder and hopefully much more effectively rather than the weak one we got, with  mixed messaging and the PM going from safe to return to school to full lockdown for weeks within 24 hours.  They dallied, dithered, caved in to the ERG and backbenchers and let their mates off with breaking rules - all which critically undermined it's effectiveness. The vaccination effort is brilliant but, frankly, they had no choice. 

 

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Footballfirst
23 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

As of 8am this morning, 12,449 people were in hospital, the lowest since 10th November.

It's down 64% from 18th January when 34,336 Covid-19 patients were in hospital

Scotland's hospital bed peak throughout the pandemic was 2,053 on 22 January. It is now 967, a reduction of 53%. Scotland has generally followed the UK trends, but not reached the UK's peaks, nor has it experienced the same sharp increases or declines of such measures.

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32 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The UK government aren't using infection rates as one of the 4 conditions of lifting lockdown restrictions.

It's only if infection rates cause a rise in hospital numbers and death

Yep 

30 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Lockdowns. 

Not every country has had lockdowns or at least not as restrictive as the UK

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3 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Nobody claimed it was eradicated in Scotland.

 

 

Sturgeon said it was 'nearly eradicated' and blamed travel from England and abroad. 

 

 

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