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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


CJGJ

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Thursday is the day you can broadly do a comparison as to how all the 4 nations are doing with their vaccination deployment plans as NHS England release their figures to close Sunday.  Scotland and Wales daily so you can use figures released on Monday.  Northern Ireland are more ad-hoc  but released broken down figures on 24th, so have a 3 day advantage on the other 3 nations.

 

 Thanks to @Footballfirstfor providing the headline targets as per the SAGE modelling paper as follows.

 

- Care Home Residents (95%); Care Home Workers (85%); 80+ (95%); 50-80 (85%); Under 50 - (75%)

 

The current position is (previous week in brackets) expressed as percentage of first dose vaccines administered.  England (weekly) and Wales (daily) rebaseline figures; Scotland has rebaselined their figures once; Northern Ireland still working off original baseline

                                     ENG                   SCO                    WAL                    NIR

ECHR                           90 (87)               103 (101)            84 (82)               Met as offered

ECHS                           69 (65)                 94 (91)             86 (85)               Met as offered     

FLHC                           77 (73)                126 (123)           86 (83)               Met as offered

FLSC                           54 (DNR)             Inc above          Can't calculate   Met as offered

80+                             94 (91)                 102 (100)           91 (90)               95 (94) 

75 - 79                        100 (96)               107 (102)           93 (91)               90 (88)

70 - 74                        94 (70)                  97 (88)             92 (90)               84 (75)

CEV                             86 (84)                 86 (80)             84 (81)               22 (39)

65 - 69                       DNR                       80 (58)             DNR                   69 (62) 

 

 

Key shout outs for me is that the call from the PM, Matt Hancock and various ministers the week before last for the over 70s to come forward in England has been a huge success but significant challenges persist in Elderly Care Homes and NHS / Social Care staff.  The NHS England base front line staff figure has been reduced by 600k which I believe is the removal of Bank, Agency staff.

 

Data for anyone interested, want to challenge

 

image.thumb.png.dfc8f65a2a4c3edae48ac65c6aebacfd.png

Edited by DETTY29
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17 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

 

Not every country has had lockdowns or at least not as restrictive as the UK

 

It doesn't require every country to bring down the average numbers for a continent. 

 

If it was purely seasonal we'd see it affecting the different hemispheres at different points of the year. 

 

We certainly wouldn't see numbers drop in Europe in the middle of the coldest season. 

Edited by Ray Gin
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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
19 hours ago, redjambo said:

Guys, I'm going to take a break from this thread for a wee while, so I won't be posting my stats and spreadsheets (I'm sure you'll all be fine and the earth will keep on spinning :)). The accusation recently voiced on here that I was a bully today has hit home given that I was bullied, mercilessly at times, at school, and I'd hate to think that folk thought that I was bullying when I expressed my thoughts to James earlier. It serves me right though. I've PMed James. He's a good guy and we had a chat to clear the air.

 

I know, I'm being a bit of a drama queen, but I really do need to take a break from this thread as it does my head in at times. All the best to you all with your continued analysis and discussion of the pandemic and our recovery from it. :thumb:

 

i didn’t think your part in this was bullying - I disagreed with the content in your post but the tone just seemed harsh/barbed but nothing out the ordinary that we’ve probably all done at some point

 

the mention of bullying in my opinion referred to the rest of the posters piling in on the back of your post with such apparent glee - not your fault and says more about them than it does about you or James - and probably says most about the medium of Internet forums

 

havent had a chance to catch up yet so maybe you and/or your spreadsheet has made an appearance

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14 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Sturgeon said it was 'nearly eradicated' and blamed travel from England and abroad. 

 

 

 

So she didn't claim it was eradicated then? 

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2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

i didn’t think your part in this was bullying - I disagreed with the content in your post but the tone just seemed harsh/barbed but nothing out the ordinary that we’ve probably all done at some point

 

the mention of bullying in my opinion referred to the rest of the posters piling in on the back of your post with such apparent glee - not your fault and says more about them than it does about you or James - and probably says most about the medium of Internet forums

 

havent had a chance to catch up yet so maybe you and/or your spreadsheet has made an appearance

👍👍

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Footballfirst
4 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Also from a Currant Bun article in October.

 

Speaking on Friday, Ms Sturgeon said: "This is a virus that obviously travels across borders very easily.

"And I suspect, over the summer, we did get very close to elimination in Scotland.

"And then - not entirely - but we've re-seeded it from travel across the UK and internationally.

"So, border control, I think, is an important consideration here.

"There are ongoing discussions with the UK government about border control internationally and also more recently we've been trying to have discussions about how we coordinate our messages on travel within the UK."

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Weakened Offender
Weakened Offender
1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

That’s two other people using the word eradicated 🤷‍♂️

 

He's pretty much eradicated his argument here. 😀

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2 hours ago, jonesy said:

Let's hope the packers in Russia don't get the Sputnik and the Novichok batches mixed up. 

 

They could hand deliver the vaccine as well, might even have time to take in some sight seeing of Cathedral Spires. :laugh:

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9 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I would like the Record to show I was piling in on James before Red’s post. 
 

 

Thank you. 

Oh so that makes it ok ? Bizarre 

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3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

bullseye-bully-238-p.jpg

Have ordered you your outfit for the Covid Thread meetup fancy dress party.

If i get an invite this may be me...........

https___s3-images.ladbible.com_s3_content_3158a0c25e4779197b6a3996de8325df.jpg

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2 hours ago, Victorian said:

I seem to remember Germany had been said to be open to the use of the Russian vaccine.  Not sure if they could have gone it alone or if they are fully constrained within the EU procurement of vaccines.

 

The Russian vaccine will be the workhorse of the global programme.  It will end up vaccinating areas of the world that,  in turn,  will end up aiding us.

 

If Hungary, Poland, Czech Rep & Slovakia can use the Russian vaccine then there shouldn't be anything apart from the sheer embarrassment of it to stop the Germans from using it either.   They won't though, not least because the EU & Moscow are having a bit of a spat just now.

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
18 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I would like the Record to show I was piling in on James before Red’s post. 
 

 

Thank you. 

 

i think you came in on the back of it too - and then apologised so maybe you felt a bit uncomfortable about it

 

 

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10 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Cancelling the chianti order...

LOL...ill feel safer in there from the tomatos or pints maybe fired my way,,,,,,,

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2 hours ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

It's definitely not allowed but you'll get away with it. Loads are doing it. Other parents might have a problem with it but I doubt it, they will maybe make an excuse but you'll not get any flak. 

 

Loads of kids are playing football on both Harrison Parks and the Meadows and Inverleith Park was mobbed the other day too. 

 

Go for it. 👍

As long as the parents keep their distances from each other

 

That's the issue at schools.... parents not keeping apart when collecting children

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BBC Horizon coronavirus special just ending.  Well worth a watch on the iplayer because it's been an impressively comprehensive evaluation of every aspect and implication of the pandemic and it's public health effects.  Real science.  Real biology,  virology,  epidemiology,  immunology.  No agendas.  No spin.  No Teletubbies critical thinking.

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@Dorothy gets her second jab in Kansas within the hour.  I've had my blue letter, so I get my first tomorrow at the EICC.  Can there be anything more romantic than getting your jabs together, 5000 miles apart.

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Weakened Offender
14 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

As long as the parents keep their distances from each other

 

That's the issue at schools.... parents not keeping apart when collecting children

 

Agreed. It's not easy though, a lot of schools have limited space at collection time. There's only so far you can stagger the entry and exiting of 300 kids too. 

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Toxteth O'Grady
3 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Hospital and death numbers are all that matters.  " Cases" aka as infections are almost irrelevant but as ive said numerous times before it certainly makes the headlines. You say infections in the young may go up but its irreverent as the most vulinerable should all have been vaccinated and far less likely to die or be in hospital.

I don’t think you or I can say whether cases are irrelevant or not in young people. They might be a risk worth taking of could be a chance for the virus to keep going and mutate. Add to that some young people will suffer badly from infection - it might be a small percentage but would you want to live with the decision where someone’s son or daughter dies? 

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Weakened Offender
3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Entirely comfortable with my actions 

 

Quite. 

 

It's ridiculous how this has played out today. 

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2 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Positive test results are not irrelevant, they are the indicator of what is going to happen next. We are a long way off it being irrelevant as it puts young people in hospitals too. 

Infection rates among young people are of far less importance than when the vulnerable were susceptible.  There may be a small percentage who go to hospital but nothing that justifies restricting the movement of the vast majority. It's not that long ago , when rising infections were not feeding through to hospitalisations,  that we were told.."aah but that's because it's young people who are being infected, eventually it will spread to the old and vulnerable ". 

They can't have it both ways. I understand that they want the population to keep going for a few more weeks but they need to ramp down the scaremongering that doesn't have any basis in reality.  We hear about hypothetical variations but nothing about the fact that the most natural variation will be when it mutates to a version akin to the common cold.

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1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

I would like the Record to show I was piling in on James before Red’s post. 
 

 

Thank you. 

I have just caught up with yesterdays events on this.  Unsure if James was bullied as this means

 

"seek to harm, intimidate, or coerce (someone perceived as vulnerable)." 

From what read on this hes hardly "vulnerable". In fact is a bit of a tough nut to deal with the crap piled on him yesterday and previous other times if i recall correctly.  Yes hes a bit cranky, outre  and off kilter at times but thats part of his charm :)  
Reds post  enabled the pitch fork / lynch mob to come out in force and really vent their " dislike" not only of his postings but him as person it seemed ( well as far as you can know anyone online). I do not  think Red did  this deliberately but nevertheless it created the situation.  There were some  Pretty shameful behaviors. There is a disturbing and angry  chasm on this thread between the lockdown brigade  and the anti lockdown brigade.    However  James alluded to not wanting to mention the " b" word  which is strong evidence he was bullied  ( intimidated about the reaction if he did so therefore only mentioned this after Jonesy made a passing reference to it) .  Not a great day on this usually interesting . humorous and educational forum.  It has seen better ones.   I am not wanting to stir up a hornets nest again as it seems now to have abated but this is just my observations.  
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Weakened Offender
13 minutes ago, Robbofan99 said:

Red's post  enabled the pitch fork / lynch mob to come out in force and really vent their " dislike" not only of his postings but him as person it seemed ( well as far as you can know anyone online). I do not  think Red did  this deliberately but nevertheless it created the situation.  There were some  Pretty shameful behaviors. There is a disturbing and angry  chasm on this thread between the lockdown brigade  and the anti lockdown brigade.    However  James alluded to not wanting to mention the " b" word  which is strong evidence he was bullied  ( intimidated about the reaction if he did so therefore only mentioned this after Jonesy made a passing reference to it) 

 

Impressive cherry-picking there. 

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8 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

There is a difference now with this new variant transmitting more than before December versions, so more young can get sick faster. It less of an issue than before but it does risk hospitals filling up and new more dangerous variants. I’m not denying things are getting better and we will stop looking so closely at cases. 
 

You are right in saying I have never heard any reputable scientists mention it becoming the common cold. 

I get the feeling you are an glass is half empty type of guy.  Unbelievable posting. 

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46 minutes ago, Victorian said:

BBC Horizon coronavirus special just ending.  Well worth a watch on the iplayer because it's been an impressively comprehensive evaluation of every aspect and implication of the pandemic and it's public health effects.  Real science.  Real biology,  virology,  epidemiology,  immunology.  No agendas.  No spin.  No Teletubbies critical thinking.

Thanks for the heads up I’ll try and watch it tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

If i get an invite this may be me...........

https___s3-images.ladbible.com_s3_content_3158a0c25e4779197b6a3996de8325df.jpg

Id buy you a  pint mate. Your far more entertaining than some on this who literally drain the life out of me reading their posts.  🥃🥃🥃

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13 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

There is a difference now with this new variant transmitting more than before December versions, so more young can get sick faster. It less of an issue than before but it does risk hospitals filling up and new more dangerous variants. I’m not denying things are getting better and we will stop looking so closely at cases. 
 

You are right in saying I have never heard any reputable scientists mention it becoming the common cold. 

There is no evidence that the new variants are any more dangerous. There has been a lot of talk about new variants that may be more transmissible but that doesn't mean that they are more likely to cause severe illness. As I said, the natural path of these viruses is to becone more transmissible but weaker. 

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42 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Entirely comfortable with my actions 

and heres me thinking we had reached a detente . oh well.......

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28 minutes ago, Robbofan99 said:

I have just caught up with yesterdays events on this.  Unsure if James was bullied as this means

 

"seek to harm, intimidate, or coerce (someone perceived as vulnerable)." 

From what read on this hes hardly "vulnerable". In fact is a bit of a tough nut to deal with the crap piled on him yesterday and previous other times if i recall correctly.  Yes hes a bit cranky, outre  and off kilter at times but thats part of his charm :)  
Reds post  enabled the pitch fork / lynch mob to come out in force and really vent their " dislike" not only of his postings but him as person it seemed ( well as far as you can know anyone online). I do not  think Red did  this deliberately but nevertheless it created the situation.  There were some  Pretty shameful behaviors. There is a disturbing and angry  chasm on this thread between the lockdown brigade  and the anti lockdown brigade.    However  James alluded to not wanting to mention the " b" word  which is strong evidence he was bullied  ( intimidated about the reaction if he did so therefore only mentioned this after Jonesy made a passing reference to it) .  Not a great day on this usually interesting . humorous and educational forum.  It has seen better ones.   I am not wanting to stir up a hornets nest again as it seems now to have abated but this is just my observations.  

Cheers . Quite accurate id say. 

4 minutes ago, Robbofan99 said:

Id buy you a  pint mate. Your far more entertaining than some on this who literally drain the life out of me reading their posts.  🥃🥃🥃

Double cheers....!

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5 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

35% more deadly, although that sounds worse than it is. 
 

You should watch the BBC2 Horizon program from tonight, it explains how the virus could mutate itself safe as it were, but it’s not to do with cold virus. 

I think the 35% refers to transmissibility not severity of symptoms. 

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/no-evidence-change-symptoms-new-coronavirus-variant

 

Yes, fair enough, the "common cold" comparison maybe wasn't a good one; the point I tried to make was around the tendency for it to mutate to a weaker version.

I will try to have a look at the Horizon programme. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I was accused of some sort of discrimination and bullying, I deny both allegations. I apologised if you felt bullied as it was not my intention to make you feel bullied, I had pointed out something in your posts and really invited others to agree if they also saw it, that they did and I could then see how that would make you feel. It is not my fault you posted what you did and others thought it inappropriate maybe. 
 

I have received no apology btw

The point is why invite others to comment ? Apologise for what ? 

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1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said:

Trust me the Horizon program was good, very positive about the fantastic work on vaccines and treatments. Wee bit about Long Covid that might trigger you a wee bit though. 

Yes, I'll have watch it and report back at the weekend.  👍. Hope there's a warning about the Long Covid trigger though😎

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

Entirely comfortable with my actions 

 

yeah I understand that

 

my post referred to the past tense your post refers to the present tense

 

you piled in

 

you reflected - that’s a good thing

 

you offered an apology - that’s a good thing

 

james accepted the apology offered - that’s a good thing

 

youre entirely comfortable with your actions - that’s a good thing

 

yes ?

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I think I only posted it one gif which was a shocked gif after red’s post. Not what I’d consider piling in. 

 

I think you posted text as well and you considered it (however it should be termed) worth offering an apology which was accepted

 

 

so 😃 😃

 

[that’s you and james once it was resolved]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

James seams to think my apology is some sort of victory for him and has validated his posts, therefore I withdraw it. 
 

Now can we move on. 

No I haven’t thought that all ! That’s your take on it . I thought it was a goodwill gesture to end the sorry carry on . Disappointing 

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@redjamboStat Monkey please post your facts and figures again please, very much appreciated by your fellow KBers. There's no need to let the lego squadron's bully boy tactics pressure you off the thread or doubt your post after you stated the truth on a posters performance. He can't handle women, that's his problem, don't make him yours. 

Haste ye back. 

 

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Shocked to learn that Enzo managed to escape the scientific knowledge that the Kent variant causes around 35% more mortality.  A gap in the critical thinking.

 

It's not that troubling in truth but it shows the possibilities.  The more pleasing possibility is the theory that any likely fully vaccine escaping mutation may well involve the virus becoming less likely to invade human cells.  Much less infectious.  It bodes well for the security of the vaccines.

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An example of the 'lucky miracle' of India's 'age related' low Covid case numbers.

 

As with Australia,  New Zealand, it wouldn't necessarily have worked here but more says we couldn't figure out a better approach than we have.

 

 

Edited by DETTY29
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10 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

There is no evidence that the new variants are any more dangerous. There has been a lot of talk about new variants that may be more transmissible but that doesn't mean that they are more likely to cause severe illness. As I said, the natural path of these viruses is to becone more transmissible but weaker. 

 

Yeah, you've said a lot of things. Have you ever considered maybe admitting you don't have a ****ing clue what you're talking about?

https://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/187101-coronavirus-pandemic/&do=findComment&comment=7912057

 

image.thumb.png.4d63ce614fc41a9094ac819de68e8db8.png

 

Great call, chief.

 

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

Shocked to learn that Enzo managed to escape the scientific knowledge that the Kent variant causes around 35% more mortality.  A gap in the critical thinking.

 

Aye, same.

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5 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Yeah, you've said a lot of things. Have you ever considered maybe admitting you don't have a ****ing clue what you're talking about?

https://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/187101-coronavirus-pandemic/&do=findComment&comment=7912057

 

image.thumb.png.4d63ce614fc41a9094ac819de68e8db8.png

 

Great call, chief.

 

 

Aye, same.

 

I said the same about lockdown. Never for a second thought there would be another one after the first. Completely underestimated the competency of our leaders to replace it with something less blunt and also the populaces ability to keep themselves safe without being made to stay in their house under law.

 

Swing and a miss, from Enzo and I in hindsight.

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1 minute ago, Taffin said:

I said the same about lockdown. Never for a second thought there would be another one after the first. Completely underestimated the competency of our leaders to replace it with something less blunt and also the populaces ability to keep themselves safe without being made to stay in their house under law.

 

Swing and a miss, from Enzo and I in hindsight.

 

Hey, I came back to Scotland on 1 November thinking the worst of it was past. I'm the biggest mug on this forum. :lol:

 

But you've comported yourself with class on this thread, and you're capable of holding your hands up and learning from new information. No reason to lump yourself into the same boat.

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