Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[JudyJudyJudy]

Different strategies which gain public acceptance will begin around March / April. Coincidently the election is in May . The rewards v punishment debates is interesting but mainly redundant when one considers that tier 2 or even 1 areas will lose their rewards on Boxing Day . So what incentive have people got to change and I really find it depressing that posters use the “ general public “ when referring to those who beach the restrictions . It’s only some of the public not everyone . Most people have been compliant to a high degree and sacrificed much 

[The Mighty Thor]

1 hour ago, Nucky Thompson said:

 the estimated transmissibility of this latest mutated version is based on government modelling and has not been confirmed in lab experiments 

How UK was able to detect new coronavirus variant so quickly | The Independent

 

A lot of very, very big decisions being made on the back of this 'modelling'.

 

The track record of government modelling thus far is not stellar.

 

The track record of government decisions taken thus far is not stellar.

 

This will end well. 

[CavySlaveJambo]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I don’t know.
 

From memory it’s 62% effective and the lowest end and up to 90% depending on the dosing regime. The most effective flu jab is only about 50% effective, so I would imagine it will have a very big impact on key metrics.

 

Whether under 55 will take it is still to be determined, will probably depend on the new variation and it actually getting approval.

Considering the flu jab is an annual prediction as to which strains to put in to the jab then. Of course it is going to not be very efficient 

[Governor Tarkin]

44 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I'd imagine that for some people that DIY job could be the one thing that keeps them active and their mind occupied, rather than sitting doing nothing and worrying and getting into a deeper dark place.

 

 

The Devil makes work for idle hands, Jimbo.

 

Being able to get wired into a few big DIY projects over the first lockdown kept me sane and healthy. No doubt about it. 

[Victorian]

Even if the modelling is inaccurate or even if the Porton Down research into the new variant is unfounded,  a bit of of harder suppression is not going to go to waste.  It has a benefit regardless of whether we're dealing with slower virus or faster virus.  

 

Harder lockdown always equals some degree of economic pain for someone and it can never be ignored.  But what also shouldn't be ignored is the potentially stored up economic pain to be suffered from prolonging the worst days of this.  What if the modelling isn't all that inaccurate and we waited too long?  That we end up storing up a deep lockdown that might last longer?  

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I don’t know.
 

From memory it’s 62% effective and the lowest end and up to 90% depending on the dosing regime. The most effective flu jab is only about 50% effective, so I would imagine it will have a very big impact on key metrics.

 

Whether under 55 will take it is still to be determined, will probably depend on the new variation and it actually getting approval.

 

A 60 odd percent effective vaccine presents a headache for them.  It gets rolled out and prevalence drops like a stone.  Restrictions have to be lifted and people begin to relax a bit.  But there's no way this virus will be eliminated by a 60% effective vaccine.  I think they'll need a really good system of antibody testing and an ability to identify those within the unlucky 40% to be immunised by a different vaccine.  Mass testing on an ongoing basis for a couple of years and an ultra high vigilent surveillance system.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

Yeah a vaccine is only the beginning of the end, especially ones with shit loads of question marks round the for all manners of reasons.

 

They will approve anything over 50% from memory, I guess the hope/expectation is you buy time to improve efficacy. 
 

Any vaccine over 50% efficacy that could be dished out like sweats a party, will be a massive step forward by halting  deaths, pressure on NHS etc. A 99.9% would be nice but we need to be realistic and accept this will be done in stages

 

If we could get the vulnerable protected by vaccine and the new variant doesn’t change the profile, we could get back to some normality middle of year. By that I think tier 2 type life. Social distancing, masks will be here for a long time yet unfortunately.

 

Hope I’m wrong and we’re all in Tynie watching us lift the Championship and maybe even make Hampden for 3rd time lucky🤞

 

I would actually be a bit more optimistic on that.  All going reasonably well we could well be looking at tier 1 sort of restrictions/freedoms in the summer.  Masks could be a 'thing' in some form for another 18 months but it's highly likely to evolve into a notional 'thing' due to decreasing compliance.  If it isn't causing a problem then it will never return to such an integral measure.

[Taffin]

The game changer I guess will be if one of the vaccines can prove it prevents onwards transmission. That would massive.

[Taffin]

Oops, Sturgeon papped breaking her own rules.

 

 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

The game changer I guess will be if one of the vaccines can prove it prevents onwards transmission. That would massive.

 

Yeah.  There's a reasonable possibility that that sort of science will present itself quite quickly as well.  Evidence of that should show up quite quickly through contact tracing,  if they ever manage to get a system worth a shite.

[CavySlaveJambo]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

Yeah.  There's a reasonable possibility that that sort of science will present itself quite quickly as well.  Evidence of that should show up quite quickly through contact tracing,  if they ever manage to get a system worth a shite.

There is early evidence the Oxford Vaccine will. 

[Victorian]

Oh the banter this will cause.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

There is early evidence the Oxford Vaccine will. 

 

Great.  It stands to reason that it could be seen in the contact tracing of those in the vaccine group during the trial.

[Taffin]

Just now, Victorian said:

Oh the banter this will cause.

 

If only it was banter. I reckon there will be fury rather than banter.

 

What a cheek to stand up like she did this week and preach to everyone about stopping the virus blah blah blah. She's got no comeback now if people ignore the rules. How stupid.

[Taffin]

Just now, jonesy said:

 

 

She's gone up in my estimation. 

 

Right down in mine but not because of the lack of a mask, but the hypocrisy.

[pablo]

2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I reckon she’s done it deliberately so she can resign. 

 

Before Salmond reveals when she was really aware of the allegations against him? It's possible I suppose 

[ri Alban]

10 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

If only it was banter. I reckon there will be fury rather than banter.

 

What a cheek to stand up like she did this week and preach to everyone about stopping the virus blah blah blah. She's got no comeback now if people ignore the rules. How stupid.

She was wearing a mask and took it off at a safe distance? Or she had no mask and was in everyone's face not giving a feck? 

I don't know as I haven't seen what happened only a breaking from the scum. 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by ri Alban

[JudyJudyJudy]

16 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Here’s the story

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55419564

Even though she gets on my t***  it’s  not the biggest crime really ffs I thought it was going to be some major rule break ! 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Here’s the story

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55419564

Non-story tbh.  

[Nucky Thompson]

1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Even though she gets on my t***  it’s  not the biggest crime really ffs I thought it was going to be some major rule break ! 

Same here. It doesn't bother me that she took her mask off, but I didn't know wakes at pubs were allowed

[pablo]

1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Even though she gets on my t***  it’s  not the biggest crime really ffs I thought it was going to be some major rule break ! 

 

No, it's hardly a Ferrier or Cummings style breach.

 

But then if you stand on a stage everyday preaching at people to follow your rules, it's probably not the best idea to break them yourself.

[frankblack]

I wonder if she will refuse to quit like her pal, Margaret Covid?

 

This is her Barnard Castle.

[1971fozzy]

21 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Here’s the story

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55419564

pathetic non story. Jesus wept

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I've heard she runs about asthma clinics breathing in folks' faces in between briefings to keep the R number high enough to justify daily briefings. That's in addition to the Covid-laced lightning bolts that come firing out of her tartan-painted arse.

🤣 Carries a pepper pot to keep those sneezes coming. Relentless! 

[ri Alban]

Just now, frankblack said:

I wonder if she will refuse to quit like her pal, Margaret Covid?

 

This is her Barnard Castle.

No it isn't. Now get off your knees. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

No, it's hardly a Ferrier or Cummings style breach.

 

But then if you stand on a stage everyday preaching at people to follow your rules, it's probably not the best idea to break them yourself.

Well I’m sure it’ll be the hot topic at tomorrow’s briefing unless the “ journalists” are barred from asking about it 😂

[Francis Albert]

6 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Even though she gets on my t***  it’s  not the biggest crime really ffs I thought it was going to be some major rule break ! 

Agreed. Trivia. I find the tartan face mask itself more offensive. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Same here. It doesn't bother me that she took her mask off, but I didn't know wakes at pubs were allowed

Yes this surprised me but clearly no alcohol was served , 

[redjambo]

2 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

are these numbers people taking-up overnight beds or include people being examined/treated and discharged on the same day?

 

In-patients in hospital beds with Covid.

 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-data-definitions-and-sources/

[CJGJ]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Especially if the prohibitor-in-chief was present 😛 

 

Covid rules would have been followed to the letter.

Clearly they were not hence the story

 

Look we can seek perfection but we will never find it....all of us will have broken the rules in the last 9 months to some extent or another

 

Just another example of a human being acting as such

 

It will however remind her of the difficulties all of us face and perhaps have her act a bit less perfect when lecturing the public

[Governor Tarkin]

8 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Agreed. Trivia. I find the tartan face mask itself more offensive. 

 

This.

[Governor Tarkin]

Just now, Brian Dundas said:

It will be interesting to see who those that want her to resign wish to be the new leader of this crisis. 

 

Alex Salmond. 

[Maroon Sailor]

The Sun were always going to get her on something re Covid rules.

 

She's done well to evade them up to now

[Brighton Jambo]

The Nicola Sturgeon breach is very minor compared to others named on her and certainly can’t be compared to Ferrier or Cummings.

 

But for it it to be dismissed so easily is also wrong as she is on television nearly every day reminding people of the rules, her rules and now she has broken them.  How much harder does it get to enforce rules when those who don’t want to can point to her as an example of someone who has also broken them.

 

Of all people given her approach throughout this she absolutely needed to be above reproach and deserves  criticism for this especially as she has been so vocal about others who have broken rules.  Any talk of resignation however is ridiculous.  

Edited December 22, 2020 by Brighton Jambo

[Janbo1874]

The mask slips.

Damn those pesky kids.

[Stone1992]

5 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

The Nicola Sturgeon breach is very minor compared to others named on her and certainly can’t be compared to Ferrier or Cummings.

 

But for it it to be dismissed so easily is also wrong as she is on television nearly every day reminding people of the rules, her rules and now she has broken them.  How much harder does it get to enforce rules when those who don’t want to can point to her as an example of someone who has also broken them.

 

Of all people given her approach throughout this she absolutely needed to be above reproach and deserves  criticism for this especially as she has been so vocal about others who have broken rules.  Any talk of resignation however is ridiculous.  

I think for people in power setting the rules and asking is to follow them a breach is a breach no matter how “minor” for the reasons you say in your second paragraph. 
 

Don’t think she should be forced to resign but will be interesting to see if this will change the way she delivers messages on compliance etc. 

[Guest]

Maybe she couldn't remember  FACTS.

 

Regardless, its very minor. 

 

There will eventually be a politician who majorly screws up, but this isn't it.

[JudyJudyJudy]

It may work in her favour , ? People might actually think she is an actual human being who can make mistakes !!! Maybe appear on  a cheap tatty fat time show expressing her remorse and  “ wee moment of madness “ ? 

[Francis Albert]

5 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

It may work in her favour , ? People might actually think she is an actual human being who can make mistakes !!! Maybe appear on  a cheap tatty fat time show expressing her remorse and  “ wee moment of madness “ ? 

Maybe even wearing a standard sort of face mask instead of an SNP advert? Too far probably.

[Maroon Sailor]

28 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

It will be interesting to see who those that want her to resign wish to be the new leader of this crisis. 

 

That's the problem. She's surrounded herself by diddies to make herself look good.

 

Classic deflection tactic

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Maroon Sailor

[TheOak88]

42 minutes ago, frankblack said:

I wonder if she will refuse to quit like her pal, Margaret Covid?

 

This is her Barnard Castle.

 

[manaliveits105]

59 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Same here. It doesn't bother me that she took her mask off, but I didn't know wakes at pubs were allowed

Yes thought it was 6 people from two households - as far as aware nowhere were doing wakes 

That shoogly peg is getting shooglier by the day though

[Janbo1874]

They will spin this a minor infringement and a reminder that we must all do better to adhere to the daily changing orders that make no sense.

They are winging it.

Sturgeon got acclaim for being better than Johnson but to me has ended up as despicable as Thatcher and that has taken some doing.

One day this will pass and we will see through this cult.

[Maroon Sailor]

2 minutes ago, Janbo1874 said:

They will spin this a minor infringement and a reminder that we must all do better to adhere to the daily changing orders that make no sense.

They are winging it.

Sturgeon got acclaim for being better than Johnson but to me has ended up as despicable as Thatcher and that has taken some doing.

One day this will pass and we will see through this cult.

 

Thatcher was the reason she got in to politics.

 

As much as Sturgeon despised Thatcher she is cut from a similar cloth (not politically). Both control freaks and both set in their ways.

[Dennis Reynolds]

If she was sitting in the seat that she was leaning on she wouldn't have been breaking the rules. That shows how utterly minor it is and to be honest, how silly and pedantic the rules are for hospitality.

[Janbo1874]

18 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Thatcher was the reason she got in to politics.

 

As much as Sturgeon despised Thatcher she is cut from a similar cloth (not politically). Both control freaks and both set in their ways.

[Maroon Sailor]

10 minutes ago, weehammy said:

Though I’m not a fan of Sturgeon, a deeply manipulative politician, this is a total non-story. 
 

 

 

The Sun have been desperate to get something on her and this is the best they can come up with.

 

I'll bet they've watched her every move during the restrictions.

[hmfcbilly]

9 hours ago, Harry Potter said:

Good post Billy, still some up here maskless in the shops, beyond me, my late father was born in Lilliesleaf just down the road from you, lovely countryside down that way.

Thanks HP. Was on a bit of a rant earlier but glad you saw the points I was making through the steam 😂.  To add even more contradiction to this situation we all find ourselves in....I received an email from a car dealership this afternoon. They wanted to let me know that even with tier 4 restrictions kicking in on boxing day, they are still able to function fully and sell cars. They can even offer an accompanied test drive if necessary! Seriously...who is making these decisions right now? Vehicle maintenance i get is essential but, unless your car has died on you (which would be really unfortunate but can happen i guess) is car sales really deemed 'essential' when you consider the other businesses that will be forced to close? You're also spot on about the lovely countryside down this way. Made the move from midlothian 7 years ago and haven't regretted one minute of it. We have been very fortunate to have plenty space to get out the house these past 9 months but I really do feel for many folk who haven't had that option in what has been a horrible year for so many people.

[2205ian]

2 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Agreed. Trivia. I find the tartan face mask itself more offensive. 

Hope you do not include wearing a Tynecastle Tartan in the offensive category.

 

Bit of a slip up, hope the numbers at the wake did not exceed the limits as that will be another issue to add to her embarrassment!

[John Gentleman]

2 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

A 60 odd percent effective vaccine presents a headache for them.  It gets rolled out and prevalence drops like a stone.  Restrictions have to be lifted and people begin to relax a bit.  But there's no way this virus will be eliminated by a 60% effective vaccine.  I think they'll need a really good system of antibody testing and an ability to identify those within the unlucky 40% to be immunised by a different vaccine.  Mass testing on an ongoing basis for a couple of years and an ultra high vigilent surveillance system.

I think what we'll see is the sleek, high-tech (bloody expensive, logistical nightmares) Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being rolled out first to the vulnerable groups in society (front-line personnel etc) with the Oxford/Astra being subsequently administered to the bulk of populations.

"60%" efficacy may not sound thrilling but remember, this is the only vaccine candidate which has demonstrated the ability to de-activate the virus prior to infection. This has huge, positive knock-on effects. Conversely, the mRNA (Pfizer & Moderna) vaccines only prevent serious disease, not infection. In other words, an infected person can still transmit the virus to other persons. The Oxford/Astra is also way, way cheaper to produce and distribute by orders of magnitude. That being said, they (Astra) really had an 'epic fail' with their stage III trials, particularly their 'serendipidous' discovery of the efficacy of the half-dose/full dose regime. That was down to pure sloppiness.