U.S. Politics megathread (merged)

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

In line to vote now. Pretty big lines as expected. Just hoping to get to work no more than an hour and a half late

[alwaysthereinspirit]

8 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Trump supporter 

In your next life you should return as a TV police detective. Your perception knows no bounds.

”does your dog bite”

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

No line at my precinct but a decent amount of foot traffic. My flexible work schedule meant I was able to go after the morning rush.

 

A little bit of bitterly accurate humor:

 

 

[ri Alban]

2 hours ago, alwaysthereinspirit said:

In your next life you should return as a TV police detective. Your perception knows no bounds.

”does your dog bite”

 

 

Reincarnation supporter.

[alwaysthereinspirit]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

Reincarnation supporter.

As long as I don’t come back as a Democrat, #obo or a Deer Tick. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Voting machines malfunctioning in some of the most Democratic counties in Georgia and Texas. Particularly galling in GA because the Secretary of State, who's in charge of elections, is also the GOP nominee for governor and has refused to step down.

 

We all knew this was coming but it's still depressing to watch. It's always been a matter of trying to build a margin big enough that these shenanigans aren't enough.

[Ulysses]

18 hours ago, Ugly American said:

 

I have hope that the Dems have a better shot at the Senate than even good polling suggests, based simply on this: since 2016, Democrats have overperformed the polls ins special elections, largely due to turnout surges. Early voting is at its highest levels ever in almost half of the states, which could mean nothing or could be a sign of a turnout surge. 

 

For an early indication, watch the Georgia governor's election. The polls say it will be razor thin. If either candidate wins big, that party is going to have a good night. If Abrams runs away with Georgia and Gillum runs away with Florida, we're in for a 1994-in-reverse kind of election, which I don't even dare to hope for at this point. If they both show disappointing results, most likely result is the Democrats narrowly win the House and the GOP picks up Senate seats.

 

I think most would agree that the Senate outcome boils down to 10 (well, 9½) interesting races.  The Democrats need to hold what they have and try to flip AZ and NV. 

 

The nine:

 

Arizona: Currently R, Polls within the margins of error, narrowly favouring McSally (R).

Nevada: Currently R, Polls within the margins of error, and tied.

Florida: Currently D, Polls within the margins of error, narrowly favouring Nelson (D).

Indiana: Currently D, Polls within the margins of error, narrowly favouring Donnelly (D).

Missouri: Currently D, Polls within the margins of error, narrowly favouring Hawley (R).

Montana: Currently D, Polls narrowly favouring Tester (D).

West Virginia: Currently D, Polls favouring Manchin (D).

Tennessee: Currently R, Polls favouring Blackburn (R).

North Dakota: Currently D, Polls comfortably favouring Cramer (R).

 

The tenth (just for kicks):

 

Texas: Currently R, Polls favouring Cruz (R).

 

So if all that pans out then the Democrats will lose two (Mo and ND) and might possibly gain one (NV).

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

For anyone still awake in Scotland and following this (or other stateside Jambos):

 

Live results from the WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/governor/

 

Live election blog, center-left number wonks: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

 

Live election stuff, center-right number wonks: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/

 

Mainline Democrat blog, analysis, etc: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/

 

 

[Ulysses]

7 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

For anyone still awake in Scotland and following this (or other stateside Jambos):

 

 

 

....and for those not in either of those categories. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Barbara Comstock, very moderate Republican in the DC suburbs, goes down because she couldn't get away from Trump. First flip of the night.

 

Highly expected, but still.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

 

....and for those not in either of those categories. 

Right right, sorry!

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, Ugly American said:

Right right, sorry!

 

No bother. 

 

Not looking good at this point for Donnelly in Indiana.  He'll have to perform miraculously in the urban centres to have any chance.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No bother. 

 

Not looking good at this point for Donnelly in Indiana.  He'll have to perform miraculously in the urban centres to have any chance.

Well, his support is hugely concentrated in the urban centers . . . the Chicago suburbs have barely started to show up.

 

My Senator and Clinton's running mate, Tim Kaine wins re-election. In a better year for them and with a less shit-eating candidate than Corey Stewart, that might have been in doubt, but it wasn't really.

 

Ben Cardin back in Maryland. No shock there.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Gillum just barely ahead in Florida. Ugh. I don't like seeing that one close. Any win there is a good one but I'd feel a lot better about tonight if he polished that off by about 3-4 points.

[steve123]

So totally ignorant to it all but intrigued are things looking good for Trump ?

Edited November 7, 2018 by steve123

[Watt-Zeefuik]

2 minutes ago, steve123 said:

So totally ignorant to it all but intrigued are things looking good for Trump ?

 

Way too early to tell. Also depends on what you mean by "good." The widespread expectation is that the GOP will lose the House. The question is by how much. They have a very longshot at keeping the House, and the Dems have a longshot at taking the Senate.

 

Right now things going largely according to expectations, but again way too early to tell.

[Ulysses]

5 minutes ago, steve123 said:

So totally ignorant to it all but intrigued are things looking good for Trump ?

 

It's too early to say.  Right now the Senate will stay in Republican hands, while the House is likely to have a narrow Democrat majority, so I'd say he'd be half pleased and half pissed off.

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, Ugly American said:

 

Way too early to tell. Also depends on what you mean by "good." The widespread expectation is that the GOP will lose the House. The question is by how much. They have a very longshot at keeping the House, and the Dems have a longshot at taking the Senate.

 

Right now things going largely according to expectations, but again way too early to tell.

 

 

Americans.  Think yiz know everything. 

[Ulysses]

9 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

Gillum just barely ahead in Florida. Ugh. I don't like seeing that one close. Any win there is a good one but I'd feel a lot better about tonight if he polished that off by about 3-4 points.

 

 

Gillum and Nelson both behind now.  Squeaky bum time. 

[steve123]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

It's too early to say.  Right now the Senate will stay in Republican hands, while the House is likely to have a narrow Democrat majority, so I'd say he'd be half pleased and half pissed off.

Cheers this caters to exactly my level of understanding !!

[Watt-Zeefuik]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Gillum and Nelson both behind now.  Squeaky bum time. 

Lots of South Florida still out. I think Gillum brings this home.

 

Abrams is my nailbiter. The outright cheating by Kemp has my blood boiling and I really want to see his ass lose.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

VA-07, Dave Brat's district, is spitting distance from where we live. It's been a safe GOP seat for ages but the Dems got a fantastic candidate there in Spanberger, and they've had nutso-levels of volunteering for that campaign. Right now it's nail biting -- if the Dems are going to have a big night, they have to win that one. Not because it's easy, but because it's one district where they seemingly did everything right.

[Ulysses]

6 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

VA-07, Dave Brat's district, is spitting distance from where we live. It's been a safe GOP seat for ages but the Dems got a fantastic candidate there in Spanberger, and they've had nutso-levels of volunteering for that campaign. Right now it's nail biting -- if the Dems are going to have a big night, they have to win that one. Not because it's easy, but because it's one district where they seemingly did everything right.

 

2,500 votes in it.

 

11 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

Abrams is my nailbiter. The outright cheating by Kemp has my blood boiling and I really want to see his ass lose.

 

Yep, I get what you're saying, but I think you'll be disappointed. 

[Ulysses]

13 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

Lots of South Florida still out. I think Gillum brings this home.

 

How will that part of the state play out in the Senate race?

[Watt-Zeefuik]

2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

How will that part of the state play out in the Senate race?

 

It's very heavily Democratic leaning. Question is, is it enough.

 

Looking for signs of a blue tidal wave and not seeing them so far. Which is disappointing, but it's a long road back.

[steve123]

23 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

 

Way too early to tell. Also depends on what you mean by "good." The widespread expectation is that the GOP will lose the House. The question is by how much. They have a very longshot at keeping the House, and the Dems have a longshot at taking the Senate.

 

Right now things going largely according to expectations, but again way too early to tell.

cheers

[Ulysses]

Just now, Ugly American said:

 

Looking for signs of a blue tidal wave and not seeing them so far. Which is disappointing, but it's a long road back.

 

Not so far, and if the Democrats don't take control of the House they'll have some serious soul-searching to do.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

3 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Not so far, and if the Democrats don't take control of the House they'll have some serious soul-searching to do.

 

"Soul-searching" is putting it mildly. For a party that's in mild disarray on an average Thursday, we don't take the House, the rage is going to turn on party leadership, and rightfully so.

 

Meanwhile the ballot initiative to restore released felons' voting rights looks like it's going to pass in Florida, which I don't think is getting enough coverage, since it could severely change how that all-important state votes in 2020.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

ABC calls Indiana for the GOP. That's a loss for the Democrats, and basically ends hopes of taking the Senate, barring a Texas/Tennessee miracle. Donnelly wussed out and voted to confirm Kavenaugh, which was a huge mistake and pissed off too many Democratic voters. I'm kind of surprised they're calling it this early but they must be seeing voting #s in the Chicago suburbs and saying there's not enough there.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

And Dems lose Tennessee. That means Mitch ****ing McConnell is going to be majority leader again.

 

TN was always a long shot, but after Donnelly went down it was about the one route I could see that gave the Dems the Senate.

 

A Texas pickup would still be sweet. Not holding breath.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

Senate results looking very bad for Dems, albeit not totally unexpected. One bit of good news - the utterly contemptible Kris Kobach looks to have lost the race for Kansas Governor. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

1 minute ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

Senate results looking very bad for Dems, albeit not totally unexpected. One bit of good news - the utterly contemptible Kris Kobach looks to have lost the race for Kansas Governor. 

 

No major earthquakes but some minor ones. The Florida ballot initiative is huge and the Democrats winning the Kansas governor's mansion would have been unthinkable before the Brownback catastrophe. Outside of that a  nice run of good news. Dems flipping more seats in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, and other places. Picked up the Illinois gov, held Pennsylvania, first gay governor in Colorado.

 

Good news all around, just not as much as we'd hoped for.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

4 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

 

No major earthquakes but some minor ones. The Florida ballot initiative is huge and the Democrats winning the Kansas governor's mansion would have been unthinkable before the Brownback catastrophe. Outside of that a  nice run of good news. Dems flipping more seats in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, and other places. Picked up the Illinois gov, held Pennsylvania, first gay governor in Colorado.

 

Good news all around, just not as much as we'd hoped for.

 

Real mixed bag for sure.

 

Michigan doing our bit - Gretchen Whitmer as new Governor and Debbie Stabenow back in the Senate. I’m in Fred Upton’s District and he’s got a fight on his hands for the first time in living memory (although I suspect he’ll just scrape home).

 

And you’re right that the Florida ballot initiative is huge in the longer term.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Beto's not going to pull off a Texas miracle and actually win but he's made it way closer than any Democrat in recent memory, and probably pulled several House candidates over the line on the way.

 

Bright spots aren't going to slow climate change or impeach Trump, but they are in fact bright spots.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

16 minutes ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

 

Real mixed bag for sure.

 

Michigan doing our bit - Gretchen Whitmer as new Governor and Debbie Stabenow back in the Senate. I’m in Fred Upton’s District and he’s got a fight on his hands for the first time in living memory (although I suspect he’ll just scrape home).

 

And you’re right that the Florida ballot initiative is huge in the longer term.

 

Whitmer looks impressive as hell. If the Presidential election were in four years instead of two, I'd say she'd deserve a look. Too soon to make that pivot, though.

 

Here in VA, Spanberger's holding onto a narrow lead over Brat and the Virginia Beach/Norfolk area rep looks like it will flip too. That's three seats to the Dems in Virginia, no small thing. North Carolina Dems look like they may fall just short -- too bad.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

40 minutes ago, Ugly American said:

 

Whitmer looks impressive as hell. If the Presidential election were in four years instead of two, I'd say she'd deserve a look. Too soon to make that pivot, though.

 

Here in VA, Spanberger's holding onto a narrow lead over Brat and the Virginia Beach/Norfolk area rep looks like it will flip too. That's three seats to the Dems in Virginia, no small thing. North Carolina Dems look like they may fall just short -- too bad.

 

Whitmer does look impressive.

 

Overall I’m just relieved that Dems will indeed get the House, plus some other bright spots here and there. Less said about the Senate results the better. May not stay up much longer now the House is pretty much a certainty

 

 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

So any chance trump could be impeached?

[Watt-Zeefuik]

18 minutes ago, Jambo_in_Hamilton said:

So any chance trump could be impeached?

Yes, a chance.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

And at long last the race is called -- in a nailbiter, Tea Party icon Dave Brat goes down to Spanberger in the west Richmond area district.

 

That's enough for me to raise a glass of whisky (once I get the baby off my chest) and log off.

[The Real Maroonblood]

If the mid term results make it more difficult for Trumpet it’s certainly very pleasing.

[Mr Sifter]

Only just learned that GOP stands for Grand Old Party (is that right?). First thought was that, given the MSM use the term, doesn’t that almost even subconsciously infer to the American public that the Republicans are the ‘proper’ government of the country?

 

(probably not worded that very well, hopefully my point comes across, even if it’s not necessarily a good one ?)

[Pans Jambo]

Does anyone really understand the complexities of the American voting system, the way the government is set up with the House & Senate and the federal & state thing?

 

Very confusing and I though the voting system in the UK was bad!

 

[JimKongUno]

4 hours ago, Jambo_in_Hamilton said:

So any chance trump could be impeached?

 

None whatsoever .

[Justin Z]

Anything in particular you're wondering about, Pans?

 

House - States elect representatives roughly by population to two year terms with no limits.

Senate - States elect two representatives each to six year terms with no limits.

Federal law - Defined in the Constitution what is the purview of the federal government. Can be legally challenged if this is overstepped. Federal law has primacy.

 

State law - Most anything not defined in the Constitution as within the purview of the federal government falls to the states. States are free to choose their own form of government as long as it is "republican", per the Constitution. More democratic forms would be permissible; having a king of a state would not.

[Don Dan]

So the Blue Wave never materialised. It may well a difficult couple of years for Trump but not not as bad as the Democrats wished.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

24 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

So the Blue Wave never materialised. It may well a difficult couple of years for Trump but not not as bad as the Democrats wished.

 

Not really too sure what more the Democrats could have wished for.

 

They were never expected to gain the Senate mainly due to what seats were up for re-election, something like 36 Democrat seats to only 9 Republican seats, and it was widely predicted that the Democrats would lose seats in the Senate, and that looks like the way it has turned out.

 

Congress on the other hand where every seat was up for election, the Republicans lost control of that big time, with the Democrats making sweeping gains of seats.

 

I'll put it this way, the Democrats will be much much happier than Trump will be this morning.

[Mr Sifter]

Why are/were some seats up for re-election but others not?

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

10 minutes ago, Mr Sifter said:

Why are/were some seats up for re-election but others not?

In the Senate, which has 6 year terms, 1/3 of the seats are up for election every 2 years. It just so happened that the seats that were up this year were the worst possible combination for Dems.

 

In the House, which has 2 year terms, all seats were up for election.

[Jamboelite]

13 minutes ago, Mr Sifter said:

Why are/were some seats up for re-election but others not?

6 year term for senate seats so im guessing some arent due.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

7 hours ago, Jambo_in_Hamilton said:

So any chance trump could be impeached?

 

6 hours ago, Ugly American said:

Yes, a chance.

 

2 hours ago, JimKongUno said:

 

None whatsoever .

 

UA’s answer is the correct one. Impeachment requires a simple majority of the House, which therefore means it’s in the Dems hands. Conviction, however, is done by the Senate, and required a 2/3rds vote. That won’t happen given the Republican majority barring something unforeseen.

 

I doubt the Dems will do anything on the impeachment front until Mueller completes his findings.