Hard Brexit

[AuldReekie444]

Personally, I always base decisions on 1 graphic lifted from the Independent.  Im in. 

[shaun.lawson]

27 minutes ago, AuldReekie444 said:

Personally, I always base decisions on 1 graphic lifted from the Independent.  Im in. 

 

Hey ho, I guess you won't like this either. Bottom of the entire OECD.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/29/uk-to-sink-to-the-bottom-of-oecd-wage-growth-index-in-2018

[AuldReekie444]

6 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Hey ho, I guess you won't like this either. Bottom of the entire OECD.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/29/uk-to-sink-to-the-bottom-of-oecd-wage-growth-index-in-2018

 

You had me at a graphic from The Independent

[Thunderstruck]

1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Hey ho, I guess you won't like this either. Bottom of the entire OECD.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/29/uk-to-sink-to-the-bottom-of-oecd-wage-growth-index-in-2018

 

Why use selective (and dated) graphics based on a Trades Union’s extrapolation of OECD data published in media outlets with axes to grind when OECD publish a fully comprehensive suite of statistics. Do we know if the graphic is an accurate representation of the data or even if the original analysis bears scrutiny. The involvement of a Union Is enough to urge caution. 

 

Curiously, the OECD does not appear to include any high level view of comparative wage growth. 

 

Now, it is perfectly possible that the Union’s analysis of wage growth is reasonably accurate but, and an important but, it is but one measure and, in reality, verging on pointless without context (I think we have been over this ground before). 

 

By going directly to OECD, you can also put all of these indicators into context by considering such factors as wage levels, inflation, employment rates, unemployment rates, purchasing power parities, levels of non-native employment, labour compensation per hour worked, NEETS, public spending on labour markets and so on. That should give you a fully rounded picture. 

[shaun.lawson]

4 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

Curiously, the OECD does not appear to include any high level view of comparative wage growth. 

 

Which in this case, is precisely the problem. The OECD's own stats reveal how far below 2007 average earnings the UK still was by 2016, however.

 

In the absence of such comparisons by them, we'll have to make do with studies from which the graphic below is drawn. The left aren't polling 40% or so in the UK for nothing, you know.

 

[Thunderstruck]

3 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Which in this case, is precisely the problem. The OECD's own stats reveal how far below 2007 average earnings the UK still was by 2016, however.

 

In the absence of such comparisons by them, we'll have to make do with studies from which the graphic below is drawn. The left aren't polling 40% or so in the UK for nothing, you know.

 

 

“Projected real wage growth” - so, upon what are the projections based? What would we learn about relative wealth if we overlaid actual wage levels, local levels of inflation, local levels of unemployment, etc.

 

Without perspective, the above is no more than a bit of colouring-in with a somewhat exaggerated horizontal scale. 

 

Crucially, it already seems to be inaccurate if recent reports of +2.8% in the year to January are correct. Set that alongside falling inflation and the lowest levels of unemployment since 1975 and we have a different picture altogether, do we not.  

 

The Right in the U.K. is currently polling at 40%+. 

 

[Francis Albert]

4 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Which in this case, is precisely the problem. The OECD's own stats reveal how far below 2007 average earnings the UK still was by 2016, however.

 

In the absence of such comparisons by them, we'll have to make do with studies from which the graphic below is drawn. The left aren't polling 40% or so in the UK for nothing, you know.

 

Maybe we will do better outside the EU?

[Cade]

Government has drawn up plans to turn the M20 motorway into a giant lorry park post-brexit.

 

Y'know......just in case it's a complete clusterfeck.

 

 

[shaun.lawson]

8 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Maybe we will do better outside the EU?

 

We'll do worse outside the EU. Which is rather why the UK government can't figure out its arse from its elbow. 

[shaun.lawson]

9 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

the lowest levels of unemployment since 1975

 

 

Unemployment, of course, was one of the factors you highlighted in being able to derive an "accurate picture". Except unemployment figures aren't accurate. They're a nonsense.

 

All the unemployment figures show are how many people are currently claiming benefit. If someone's too scared to claim, or has been sent away and/or sanctioned by DWP arseholes, they don't count. Nor does anyone self-employed: many, many of whom were encouraged into totally non-viable self-employment by their jobcentres, because it helps the figures.

 

Those people are now facing an enormous cut to Universal Credit - because the new rules disgracefully assume an income floor. In other words, all we're doing is creating even more in-work poverty. That such a thing even exists in one of the richest countries in the world is monstrous - and it's getting worse. A lot worse.

 

A good sometime self-employed friend of mine has suffered horrendously with anxiety and depression these past 2 years. He's lost various positions as a result. He spent most the first 18 months of that time living off savings (so according to the government, he wasn't unemployed  ) - then when he finally came to applying for Universal Credit, the DWP messed it up. Twice. And first time round, having wrongly awarded him nothing, took 3 months to rectify it.

 

That's the world huge numbers of people live in, which the figures don't tell you about. And it's also something which - correct me if I'm wrong - you voted for.

[Francis Albert]

4 hours ago, Cade said:

Government has drawn up plans to turn the M20 motorway into a giant lorry park post-brexit.

 

Y'know......just in case it's a complete clusterfeck.

 

 

It is called "Operation Stack" and has existed for years and has been implemented not infrequently ... most commonly as a result of French strikes.

[jake]

12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

It is called "Operation Stack" and has existed for years and has been implemented not infrequently ... most commonly as a result of French strikes.

No can't be The EU is wonderful and the UK is bad.

 

[jake]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/racist-murders-more-common-scotland-12498107

 

 

But but we didn't vote for brexit

[Thunderstruck]

3 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Unemployment, of course, was one of the factors you highlighted in being able to derive an "accurate picture". Except unemployment figures aren't accurate. They're a nonsense.

 

All the unemployment figures show are how many people are currently claiming benefit. If someone's too scared to claim, or has been sent away and/or sanctioned by DWP arseholes, they don't count. Nor does anyone self-employed: many, many of whom were encouraged into totally non-viable self-employment by their jobcentres, because it helps the figures.

 

Those people are now facing an enormous cut to Universal Credit - because the new rules disgracefully assume an income floor. In other words, all we're doing is creating even more in-work poverty. That such a thing even exists in one of the richest countries in the world is monstrous - and it's getting worse. A lot worse.

 

A good sometime self-employed friend of mine has suffered horrendously with anxiety and depression these past 2 years. He's lost various positions as a result. He spent most the first 18 months of that time living off savings (so according to the government, he wasn't unemployed  ) - then when he finally came to applying for Universal Credit, the DWP messed it up. Twice. And first time round, having wrongly awarded him nothing, took 3 months to rectify it.

 

That's the world huge numbers of people live in, which the figures don't tell you about. And it's also something which - correct me if I'm wrong - you voted for.

 

Very few of these types of statistics are based on a complete set of audited data. The majority are derived from sampling (including employment levels). All you can hope to do is consider the underlying data and attempt to form a rounded picture hence the futility of single sets out of context.  In a sense they are like opinion polls - best taken with a huge pinch of salt. 

 

 

[SE16 3LN]

9 hours ago, jake said:

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/racist-murders-more-common-scotland-12498107

 

 

But but we didn't vote for brexit

According to a shock academic study , where's the shock?

[SE16 3LN]

1 hour ago, Hunky Dory said:

 

What an article to use in support of your argument.  Trivializing the death of minorities.

 

No one is claiming that Scotland doesn't have issues with racism.  However, the crux of the argument centers around that fact that racially motivated incidents increased in England after Brexit, whilst Scotland witnessed an overall decrease.

Ha Ha, talk about blinkered. One disgusting statistic should be ignored but the other is relevant...

[SpruceBringsteen]

11 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

Ha Ha, talk about blinkered. One disgusting statistic should be ignored but the other is relevant...

 

I'd say the statistic that followed Brexit is more relevant than the one that uses data up to 2013, tbh.

[SE16 3LN]

9 minutes ago, SpruceBringsteen said:

 

I'd say the statistic that followed Brexit is more relevant than the one that uses data up to 2013, tbh.

Would you?

[SpruceBringsteen]

1 minute ago, SE16 3LN said:

Would you?

 

Yes m8, I just did.

 

(Although I should have said following the Brexit vote, but we're not politicians so I'm glad we're not getting into any pathetic levels of pedantry.)

[SE16 3LN]

2 minutes ago, SpruceBringsteen said:

 

Yes m8, I just did.

 

(Although I should have said following the Brexit vote, but we're not politicians so I'm glad we're not getting into any pathetic levels of pedantry.)

I would say the one bout killing people was more relevant. 

[SpruceBringsteen]

12 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

I would say the one bout killing people was more relevant. 

 

It would be if it was 2013, yes.

[Cade]

EU to start free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand in a matter of weeks.

 

Empire 2.0 over before it began 

 

[SE16 3LN]

45 minutes ago, SpruceBringsteen said:

 

It would be if it was 2013, yes.

When you get to my age 2013 was yesterday.

[SpruceBringsteen]

7 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

When you get to my age 2013 was yesterday.

 

 Fair enough!

 

If the figures were to 2018, I'd say you were correct. But to 2013? According to 2013 figures, Hearts were the worst team in the Premier. 

[jake]

46 minutes ago, Cade said:

EU to start free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand in a matter of weeks.

 

Empire 2.0 over before it began 

 

Just like the Canadian trade talks.

 

[jake]

3 hours ago, Hunky Dory said:

 

What an article to use in support of your argument.  Trivializing the death of minorities.

 

No one is claiming that Scotland doesn't have issues with racism.  However, the crux of the argument centers around that fact that racially motivated incidents increased in England after Brexit, whilst Scotland witnessed an overall decrease.

No.

Reported incidents increased .

However these have not been substantiated.

Anyway trivializing the reports of attacks to support your argument.....

 

I wasn't trivializing anymore than you buddy.

It's pertinent because in fact the English and the brexit vote seem to be dismissed as indicative of racism.

While the rest of the country who did not vote brexit are somehow progressive.

 

I admit it was a point score though.

 

[jake]

1 hour ago, SpruceBringsteen said:

 

I'd say the statistic that followed Brexit is more relevant than the one that uses data up to 2013, tbh.

This data you speak is actual recordings and convictions .

The statistic you speak of is reported.

There is no actual proof of offences.

 

[Ulysses]

On 5/19/2018 at 17:18, shaun.lawson said:

 

So in sum: he's not a bigot in any way, shape or form, so you should withdraw that accusation IMO. He's merely a contrarian. The ability to understand and even express the alternative point(s) of view despite actually believing in something else is a rare one. In your view, are teachers 'bigots', given that's what they do all the time? Anything else would involve brainwashing their students, instead of allowing them to reach their own views.

 

As for myself: we've had this discussion before of course, but it's not and has never been deliberate on my part. We're all products of our environments; the peculiar circumstances of my upbringing forced me to become super-analytical simply to try and understand what was going on. And that involved me trying to understand all sides of it, without blame.

 

 

I do understand that totally. And while I can't share your pain to the same extent, because I'm not Irish, I do share it. The opinion polls still look promising, at least.

 

 

This is quite funny, because you actually said that to me, word for word, over PM many years ago. And it made me smile.  

 

Four in turn:

 

There are 27 of us.  If FA wants to pick on unfavourable examples of "Planet Europe" to counter your favourable examples, let him look to Germany, Malta or Slovenia once in a while. 

 

You could be right - this is the Shed, where non-football stuff gets thrashed out by all sorts of headbangers, even me.

 

I get your point, but I'm wary of the presence of shy social conservatives.  In the 2015 marriage equality referendum, one in eight Yes voters either switched sides in the last few days or were shy No voters to begin with - and this is a far more emotive issue for a lot of people.  However the Sunday Times and Sunday Business Post polls at the weekend were more positive than polls in the few days before that, so I'm living in hope.

 

You should send me a copy.  I have no recollection, and a copy might help set it in context for me.  I can't claim to be free of negativity about nationalities, but I don't do anti-English sentiment - and anyway the expression you quote isn't really in my "idiomatic zone", so it's hard to see how I'd have used it with, for want of a better expression, a straight face.

[Ulysses]

On 5/20/2018 at 20:08, Francis Albert said:

That I must admit is a surprising indeed shocking statistic,

 

It is if you're Irish. 

 

Is there any chance there's a misprint or another error?  Serious question.

[Cade]

Brexit minister just admitted to a Parliamentary Select Committee that the £39billion "divorce bill" is not negotiable nor dependent on any future trade deals.

 

We're legally bound to pay it, no matter what.

 

 

[Doogz]

32 minutes ago, Cade said:

Brexit minister just admitted to a Parliamentary Select Committee that the £39billion "divorce bill" is not negotiable nor dependent on any future trade deals.

 

We're legally bound to pay it, no matter what.

 

 

Not having a go at your post but I'm amazed this is being reported as news as it has always been my understanding that we were legally bound to pay it. If anything, I'm slightly surprised it's not a costing a lot more. 

[Cade]

18 minutes ago, Doogz said:

Not having a go at your post but I'm amazed this is being reported as news as it has always been my understanding that we were legally bound to pay it. If anything, I'm slightly surprised it's not a costing a lot more. 

Yes, we've always been legally obliged to pay it, but people like May, Mogg, Gove and IDS have all claimed that it was dependent on a future deal i.e. negotiable.

 

Also today, Boris is demanding a private jet for his Foreign Secretary work.

[shaun.lawson]

 

On 5/22/2018 at 18:40, Ulysses said:

 

It is if you're Irish. 

 

Is there any chance there's a misprint or another error?  Serious question.

 

I think it must be - which does, I acknowledge, beg questions about the validity of their research beyond that. 

[Cade]

Supreme Leader Maggie May off to beg for an extended transition period 

 

 

[Victorian]

And she's still having to host separate meetings to appease and be worked up the farter from the two opposing sects of the party.    Utterly tragic stuff.     A powerless figurehead lame duck taking two separate sets of demands and having to find some kind of way to stay in office.    Living a sort of hand to mouth political survival game.     

[shaun.lawson]

 

 

So that's alright then.

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

 

So that's alright then.

 

Ah here - another JPG I can't see. 

[shaun.lawson]

TEST: Can others see the image I posted above? 

 

(I signed out and viewed JKB as a guest, and I could see it).

[Unknown user]

5 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Ah here - another JPG I can't see. 

There are clearly minor corruptions in the database, likely a relic from the great transfer of '18

[SE16 3LN]

On 22/05/2018 at 21:25, Hunky Dory said:

 

It wasn't a case of provide a statistic to reply to his post, it was addressing his point without the use of any form of statistics.  You've seen that, jumped on it without thinking, and made a fool of yourself.

Ha Ha, I must have missed this from the village idiot wearing a red nose and clown shoes.

 

By the way, everyone who  trashed my prediction that Italy would put the EU in intensive care...

 

and the solution is big Europe as predicted.

 

[Sir Vladimir of Romanov]

20 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

TEST: Can others see the image I posted above? 

 

(I signed out and viewed JKB as a guest, and I could see it).

 

I can see it yes. 

[shaun.lawson]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/david-davis-northern-ireland-brexit-plans-dup/

 

     

 

Just call an election and put the country out of its misery, Theresa. 

[The Mighty Thor]

43 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/david-davis-northern-ireland-brexit-plans-dup/

 

     

 

Just call an election and put the country out of its misery, Theresa. 

What a shambles.

It's rapidly becoming a really shit yes prime minister/the thick of it parody.

 

The trouble is if she did call a snap election I reckon the result would be the same. Corbyn offers no alternative just more of the same as he's got creosote stains on the arse of his cords re Brexit.

[Cade]

 

 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Cade

[shaun.lawson]

[Ulysses]

7 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

 

[shaun.lawson]

2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

 

Uly - I think it's only you who isn't able to see my jpegs. 

[Ulysses]

5 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Uly - I think it's only you who isn't able to see my jpegs. 

 

I think so too.  Even if I log out I can't see them.

 

[shaun.lawson]

4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I think so too.  Even if I log out I can't see them.

 

 

Here's something interesting. I can't see the gif you just posted.

[Ulysses]

13 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Here's something interesting. I can't see the gif you just posted.

 

Here's a direct link.

 

https://media1.tenor.com/images/7ad58074f9b50246a52181c814905eba/tenor.gif?itemid=10505781