Catalonia referendum

[jb102]

Do we get to go and fight the fascists in Spain as a warm up for WW111?

[Cade]

What an unholy mess.

 

All Spain had to do was let them have their indyref but put the win limit at 65%, which would have had no chance.

 

Instead, they're going to have to send in the troops and take federal control over the region. Made a complete tit of the entire situation.

[Gorgiewave]

2 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

I think there will be many who will try and stop the Police,  I just can't see the Catalans standing back and allowing the Spanish police to arrest their leaders.

 

"The Catalans." Independence supporters are about 40% of the population. Those who are willing to break the law to achieve independence is lower. One of the Catalan ministers resigned this week because he didn't want independence if it was done illegally.

 

I think a good many Catalans would be delighted to see some people led away in handcuffs.

[Gorgiewave]

3 minutes ago, Cade said:

What an unholy mess.

 

All Spain had to do was let them have their indyref but put the win limit at 65%, which would have had no chance.

 

Instead, they're going to have to send in the troops and take federal control over the region. Made a complete tit of the entire situation.

 

A good idea. 65% for Scottish independence as well.

[Gorgiewave]

35 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

So if Catalonia does become independent how does their EU status stand. Spain is the member an Independent Catalonia isn't. Therefor WTO rules apply immediately. If the EU try to fudge it what impact will it have on Brexit? Can of worms, Pandoras Box, Genie out of the Bottle take your pick or all may apply. 

The EU won't recognise an independent Catalonia. It will be frozen out.

[Gorgiewave]

A good summary of the situation:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/27/inenglish/1509117264_660083.html

[Sten Guns]

What a horribly dangerous mess these idiotic separatists have created.

 

Madrid using the constitution to go and in and give them the democratic hiding they deserve.  

[redjambo]

2 hours ago, Tazio said:

UDI never tends to work very well.

 

In the short-term, yes. But in the long-term it has worked out fine for countries such as the US, Ireland, Argentina, Belgium, Bangladesh, Slovenia, Croatia etc. who are now independent countries. The battle after Slovenian UDI in particular was, relatively speaking, quick and with few casualties.

[Seymour M Hersh]

36 minutes ago, Cade said:

What an unholy mess.

 

All Spain had to do was let them have their indyref but put the win limit at 65%, which would have had no chance.

 

Instead, they're going to have to send in the troops and take federal control over the region. Made a complete tit of the entire situation.

 

You say that but since the Catalan government have declared UDI why would a 65% limit have stopped them. I agree they (Madrid) should have held/allowed a legal referendum but it appears the Catalans in their Government in Barcelona would have travelled this path regardless of the result.  I don't agree that Madrid have to send in the troops but given their previous there is every chance they might at least threaten them.

[Shanks]

What a shambles.

[Don Dan]

Several EU countries refusing to acknowledge the independence. 

Sturgeon says she respects the decision which is unconstitutional. 

[milky_26]

spain govt have dissolved the catalan govt and called snap election

[AlphonseCapone]

1 hour ago, Dannie Boy said:

Several EU countries refusing to acknowledge the independence. 

Sturgeon says she respects the decision which is unconstitutional. 

 

Everyone saying what you'd expect basically.

[redjambo]

Out of interest, how do you all think this will play out? Not how you want it to, but what you think will happen next.

 

Will peaceful civil disobedience work? Will the army be sent into Catalonia? Will any other countries recognise Catalonia's independence? Will fresh elections be held?

 

Kudos to the person who comes the closest once things have played out...

[Gorgiewave]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

Out of interest, how do you all think this will play out? Not how you want it to, but what you think will happen next.

 

Will peaceful civil disobedience work? Will the army be sent into Catalonia? Will any other countries recognise Catalonia's independence? Will fresh elections be held?

 

Kudos to the person who comes the closest once things have played out...

 

Anti-independence majority in election on 21 December. No jail for most Catalan MPs because they deliberately had a few votes against so they couldn't have the vote for independence pinned on them. The same logic as having firing squads with several people but not all firing a bullet.

 

Puigdemont may have avoided jail by being punted today. If he tries to resist that, jail for him.

 

Substantial increase in vote for Ciudadanos.

 

10-15 years from now, Inés Arrimadas is Prime Minister of Spain and on TV even more than now. Which can't be bad.

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Gorgiewave said:

 

Anti-independence majority in election on 21 December. No jail for most Catalan MPs because they deliberately had a few votes against so they couldn't have the vote for independence pinned on them. The same logic as having firing squads with several people but not all firing a bullet.

 

Puigdemont may have avoided jail by being punted today. If he tries to resist that, jail for him.

 

Substantial increase in vote for Ciudadanos.

 

10-15 years from now, Inés Arrimadas is Prime Minister of Spain and on TV even more than now. Which can't be bad.

 

And you think that the pro-independence Catalans will sit back and allow all that to happen? You can't see any violence, any potential martyrs?

[Gorgiewave]

11 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

And you think that the pro-independence Catalans will sit back and allow all that to happen? You can't see any violence, any potential martyrs?

 

You make it sound like their honour has been violated. In fact, they've embarrassed themselves. There may be some violence from La CUP (the anti-system, anti-fa, la revolución será feminista o no será crowd). The news this evening has discussed the "Batasunización" of Catalonia. Batasuna is one of the many versions of the political wing of ETA (in theory it's illegal and doesn't exist but the same people keep forming new parties under new names).

 

If you have stone throwing, people clubbing the Police and the Police defending themselves with batons and rubber bullets, deaths are possible, but I don't think there will be any organised terrorism or anything like it.

[redjambo]

13 minutes ago, Gorgiewave said:

 

You make it sound like their honour has been violated. In fact, they've embarrassed themselves. There may be some violence from La CUP (the anti-system, anti-fa, la revolución será feminista o no será crowd). The news this evening has discussed the "Batasunización" of Catalonia. Batasuna is one of the many versions of the political wing of ETA (in theory it's illegal and doesn't exist but the same people keep forming new parties under new names).

 

If you have stone throwing, people clubbing the Police and the Police defending themselves with batons and rubber bullets, deaths are possible, but I don't think there will be any organised terrorism or anything like it.

 

What? Seriously, how on earth did you read something about honour from my question? My question was totally objective. The original scenario you proposed appeared to me to take place in a vacuum, where the pro-independence Catalans wouldn't do anything to interfere with the process. That's not realistic.

 

I agree, I don't think there will be organised terrorism, but I do believe there will be serious clashes and long-term civil disobedience. How these pan out may materially affect international support for the Catalans.

[Gorgiewave]

9 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

What? Seriously, how on earth did you read something about honour from my question? My question was totally objective. The original scenario you proposed appeared to me to take place in a vacuum, where the pro-independence Catalans wouldn't do anything to interfere with the process. That's not realistic.

 

I agree, I don't think there will be organised terrorism, but I do believe there will be serious clashes and long-term civil disobedience. How these pan out may materially affect international support for the Catalans.

You said, "you think that the pro-independence Catalans will sit back and allow all that to happen?"

 

If one is threatened or intimidated or insulted, one might "sit back and allow all that to happen" or one might defend oneself. In these circumstances, to ask whether one will "sit back and allow all that to happen" is a reasonable question.

 

However, if one has committed a crime, it's known to all and sundry, and then one is arrested for it, it's not reasonable or natural to ask whether one will "sit back and allow all that to happen." It will happen and it's not a question of you allowing it or not. It's no longer in your hands.

[FWJ]

I think Madrid should act with kid gloves.  Making an example of the (otherwise pretty unpopular) leaders of the Easter Rising in 1916 didn’t exactly turn out well.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

5 minutes ago, FWJ said:

I think Madrid should act with kid gloves.  Making an example of the (otherwise pretty unpopular) leaders of the Easter Rising in 1916 didn’t exactly turn out well.

I don't think Madrid is going to declare martial law and shoot them!

[yabadabadoo1874again]

16 minutes ago, FWJ said:

I think Madrid should act with kid gloves.  Making an example of the (otherwise pretty unpopular) leaders of the Easter Rising in 1916 didn’t exactly turn out well.

 

Too late.

 

Was the cry.

[redjambo]

21 minutes ago, Gorgiewave said:

You said, "you think that the pro-independence Catalans will sit back and allow all that to happen?"

 

If one is threatened or intimidated or insulted, one might "sit back and allow all that to happen" or one might defend oneself. In these circumstances, to ask whether one will "sit back and allow all that to happen" is a reasonable question.

 

However, if one has committed a crime, it's known to all and sundry, and then one is arrested for it, it's not reasonable or natural to ask whether one will "sit back and allow all that to happen." It will happen and it's not a question of you allowing it or not. It's no longer in your hands.

 

I was talking about the independence-supporting population rather than the politicians.

[Gorgiewave]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I was talking about the independence-supporting population rather than the politicians.

 

I think they'll feel deflated and there will be a slow renormalisation of Catalonia.

[redjambo]

10 minutes ago, Gorgiewave said:

 

I think they'll feel deflated and there will be a slow renormalisation of Catalonia.

 

That's where I'm not so sure. However, it's all about momentum...

[FWJ]

9 hours ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

I don't think Madrid is going to declare martial law and shoot them!

Maybe not, but there is already talk of violence.

Perhaps even jailing MPs might be provocative enough to push some people over.

[Nookie Bear]

16 hours ago, Cade said:

What an unholy mess.

 

All Spain had to do was let them have their indyref but put the win limit at 65%, which would have had no chance.

 

Instead, they're going to have to send in the troops and take federal control over the region. Made a complete tit of the entire situation.

Problem with a 50/50 is that you get an uneasy and divisive result like with Brexit. For decisions of that magnitude, a 65% should be around the target. 

 

But anyway, looking forward to Barca doing the right thing and resigning from La Liga. Much more important ?

[Cade]

Catalans who voted for indy are planning to stop paying any and all taxes.

Also planning to withdraw all their money from non-catalan banks.

The independent Catalan police may ignore orders from new, Spanish imposed superior officers.

 

This is going to run and run.

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Spanish Prosecutor calls for charges of Rebellion, Sedition & Misuse of Public Funds against the Catalan Leaders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41802900

I think they have to appear in a court in Madrid, if they don't appear, they face being arrested.

 

[Don Dan]

Spanish prosecutor announces charges including rebellion against Catalan leaders behind declaration of independence.

 

escalates by the day!

[Cade]

I bet the other autonomous regions of Spain are watching this VERY carefully.

 

ETA will be phoning their old arms dealer pals.

[Gorgiewave]

14 minutes ago, Cade said:

I bet the other autonomous regions of Spain are watching this VERY carefully.

 

ETA will be phoning their old arms dealer pals.

ETA barely exists any more. They've been arrested and jailed and their stashes have been found.

 

The other autonomous regions will mostly be delighted that sanity has returned.

 

Not every region is a bolshy, truculent, sanctimonious disaster.

[doctor jambo]

Carles has shit the bed and fled for Brussels

its over then

biggest yellow stripe ever down his back

[Adam Murray]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

I bet the other autonomous regions of Spain are watching this VERY carefully.

 

ETA will be phoning their old arms dealer pals.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

 

If Puigdemont and the senior Catalan cabinet have indeed fled to Belgium, and this is all over, they will have set back the whole issue of Catalan Independence decades, indeed Catalans are now worse off today then they were last week, and for what?  What have they achieved?  Nothing.

 

And to think Sturgeon was the only leader to offer any kind of support, I just hope she and her cohorts realise the folly of declaring UDI.

Nothing wrong with Independence, but you have to follow a legal path to achieve it.

 

I would not be surprised if the Catalan economy starts to suffer now, in terms of investment & jobs, they'll go elsewhere in Spain now.

 

[Pans Jambo]

23 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

If Puigdemont and the senior Catalan cabinet have indeed fled to Belgium, and this is all over, they will have set back the whole issue of Catalan Independence decades, indeed Catalans are now worse off today then they were last week, and for what?  What have they achieved?  Nothing.

 

And to think Sturgeon was the only leader to offer any kind of support, I just hope she and her cohorts realise the folly of declaring UDI.

Nothing wrong with Independence, but you have to follow a legal path to achieve it.

 

I would not be surprised if the Catalan economy starts to suffer now, in terms of investment & jobs, they'll go elsewhere in Spain now.

 

Is this argument not going round and round and round?

 

Catalonian government asked Spain for dialogue to discuss a referendum for 10 years but were told no. So they held one anyway.

 

Catalonia blames Spain. Spain blames Catalonia. 

 

Maybe the correct thing to do would have been to allow them to hold a 'legal' referendum. The independence movement may have lost it. I guess we will never know.

 

Not allowing talks, sending in the militant police to heavy hand the peaceful populace, removing powers and issuing warrants for government ministers arrest doesnt seem like the right path to me.

 

I dont understand why investments and jobs will go. It is still Spain and it is still in the Euro currently. Seem to recall all the jobs were going to flood out of Scotland had there been a YES vote and now all the jobs are supposed to be flying out the door because the UK has left the EU. Yet to see it.

 

Personally, I would kick anyone in the balls who uses the word 'uncertainty'. It a load of pish. Nobody is certain whats going to happen anywhere in the world over the next 6 months. Its a word used by powerful people as an excuse to threaten the masses.

Oil price rise/fall, wars in the middle east, war with North Korea, terrorist attacks, climate change, VW Diesel scandal, Global stock market melt downs, Housing crash, Credit debt, interest rate rises, Inflation, 2 Sisters chicken scandal, TTIP, recession, Brexit, Nuclear power station melting in Japan, a million refugees arriving in Germany, ISIS etc etc etc. and so it goes on. A butterfly farts in Colombia and your pension is wiped out!

[Psychedelicropcircle]

On behalf of JKB May I take this opportunity to wishing Europe’s newest country the best of luck.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Pans Jambo said:

Is this argument not going round and round and round?

 

Catalonian government asked Spain for dialogue to discuss a referendum for 10 years but were told no. So they held one anyway.

 

Catalonia blames Spain. Spain blames Catalonia. 

 

Maybe the correct thing to do would have been to allow them to hold a 'legal' referendum. The independence movement may have lost it. I guess we will never know.

 

Not allowing talks, sending in the militant police to heavy hand the peaceful populace, removing powers and issuing warrants for government ministers arrest doesnt seem like the right path to me.

 

I dont understand why investments and jobs will go. It is still Spain and it is still in the Euro currently. Seem to recall all the jobs were going to flood out of Scotland had there been a YES vote and now all the jobs are supposed to be flying out the door because the UK has left the EU. Yet to see it.

 

Personally, I would kick anyone in the balls who uses the word 'uncertainty'. It a load of pish. Nobody is certain whats going to happen anywhere in the world over the next 6 months. Its a word used by powerful people as an excuse to threaten the masses.

Oil price rise/fall, wars in the middle east, war with North Korea, terrorist attacks, climate change, VW Diesel scandal, Global stock market melt downs, Housing crash, Credit debt, interest rate rises, Inflation, 2 Sisters chicken scandal, TTIP, recession, Brexit, Nuclear power station melting in Japan, a million refugees arriving in Germany, ISIS etc etc etc. and so it goes on. A butterfly farts in Colombia and your pension is wiped out!

 

That would have been the prudent thing to have done, but that is easy to say with hindsight.

[Seymour M Hersh]

6 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

That would have been the prudent thing to have done, but that is easy to say with hindsight.

 

Really?  

[Gorgiewave]

1 hour ago, Psychedelicropcircle said:

On behalf of JKB May I take this opportunity to wishing Europe’s newest country the best of luck.

 

Correct.

 

 

[Gorgiewave]

I'd love to see Sturgeon flee to Brussels. Maybe a regional leader will take her in as a refugee.

[Space Mackerel]

Over 1500 extra coaches using the Catalan toll roads on Sunday

 

 

[Psychedelicropcircle]

Hope that gadge is just away to Brussels to set up his new countries EU account?

[Gorgiewave]

1 hour ago, Psychedelicropcircle said:

Hope that gadge is just away to Brussels to set up his new countries EU account?

No, he's just hiding from the law like the shitebag he is. He'll be in jail soon enough.

 

 

[Psychedelicropcircle]

5 hours ago, Gorgiewave said:

No, he's just hiding from the law like the shitebag he is. He'll be in jail soon enough.

 

 

 This is no way to be talking about the president of the new country of Catalonia.

[Toggie88]

9 hours ago, Gorgiewave said:

No, he's just hiding from the law like the shitebag he is. He'll be in jail soon enough.

 

 

 

Oh piss off, little Castillan wannabe fascists are the problem here.  They never actually liked democracy. 

 

 

[redjambo]

13 hours ago, Gorgiewave said:

No, he's just hiding from the law like the shitebag he is. He'll be in jail soon enough.

 

Back to sniping from the gutter I see, GW.

 

It's a real shame. For a while there you were posting constructive, objective, very informative posts on the situation. You probably noticed the respect you were getting from other posters as a result, even those with views diametrically opposed to yours. Oh well, good things don't always last...

[Gorgiewave]

4 hours ago, Toggie88 said:

 

Oh piss off, little Castillan wannabe fascists are the problem here.  They never actually liked democracy. 

 

 

Oh dear. Scotland said No and now Spain has said No. There are no fascists.

[Gorgiewave]

36 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Back to sniping from the gutter I see, GW.

 

It's a real shame. For a while there you were posting constructive, objective, very informative posts on the situation. You probably noticed the respect you were getting from other posters as a result, even those with views diametrically opposed to yours. Oh well, good things don't always last...

 

Until Scottish nationalism and Catalan nationalism are faint memories, I'll snipe, yes.

 

In other, informative news, two of the main Catalan nationalist parties have said they will take part in the election on 21 December. Called by the Spanish government. I infer from this that they accept that Catalonia is not independent. This is welcome.

 

Podemos will likely also suffer from being too tempted to support independence. This is a Good Thing.

[XB52]

been a bit of a disaster all round this. Nobody comes out looking good but I wonder what happens if the new elections go ahead and the pro-independence parties gain the most sets/votes. Do they just go back around the merry-go-round once again??