Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[Pans Jambo]

Deary me...

 

[WorldChampions1902]

50 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Deary me...

 

If the above comes to pass there is a real possibility of, 'civil disturbance' IMHO. And if the vote of 'no confidence' is successful and BOJO refuses to go, I can see another protest march on the HoC that will eclipse the scale of the previous one. Will be interesting to see how all that unfolds.

[frankblack]

3 hours ago, Pans Jambo said:

Deary me...

 

 

Isn't there an obvious problem with that?

 

EU countries will have to pay WTO rates to trade with us, while UK firms e.g. farms can sell their dairy, meat, fruit and veg without those charges throughout the UK? 

 

As for Fish, are there no fish in UK waters?  The EU would cease to have access to those waters as the common fishery policy would have been revoked.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

Isn't there an obvious problem with that?

 

EU countries will have to pay WTO rates to trade with us, while UK firms e.g. farms can sell their dairy, meat, fruit and veg without those charges throughout the UK? 

 

As for Fish, are there no fish in UK waters?  The EU would cease to have access to those waters as the common fishery policy would have been revoked.

 

You honestly think EU countries will pay WTO rates to us instead of just getting it cheaper elsewhere?

[Pans Jambo]

17 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Isn't there an obvious problem with that?

 

EU countries will have to pay WTO rates to trade with us, while UK firms e.g. farms can sell their dairy, meat, fruit and veg without those charges throughout the UK? 

 

As for Fish, are there no fish in UK waters?  The EU would cease to have access to those waters as the common fishery policy would have been revoked.

Aye it seems to be all good Frank 

[Justin Z]

15 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

You honestly think EU countries will pay WTO rates to us instead of just getting it cheaper elsewhere?

 

Curious thing I've noticed . . . brexiteers especially seem to have the same problem of myopia as Republicans in the States . . . it's like the rest of the world beyond what's directly in front of their noses at any given time doesn't exist.

[Unknown user]

10 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Curious thing I've noticed . . . brexiteers especially seem to have the same problem of myopia as Republicans in the States . . . it's like the rest of the world beyond what's directly in front of their noses at any given time doesn't exist.

 

I don't know, maybe this message hasn't been clear enough.

 

WTO rules mean what we buy in costs more, a lot more. And we're an island nation, we buy in a lot.

That cost, plus the additional costs associated with such widespread change, gets reflected in the price to consumers.

 

Meanwhile, our exports have become  instantly uncompetitive. Who will buy our dairy at 140% of the old price, when other dairy is available cheaper?

 

We produce 65% of the food needed to feed the UK. The other 35% just went up in price massively and we've got no money because no one will buy our stuff.

 

Trouble's coming if we go WTO.

[frankblack]

38 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

You honestly think EU countries will pay WTO rates to us instead of just getting it cheaper elsewhere?

 

I'm talking about trade both ways and the effect of leaving the EU without a deal on the EU in terms of the common fisheries policy.

 

Also, I was referring to the UK market getting a boost if tarrifs for competitors overseas made them less affordable than UK firms.

[frankblack]

26 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Aye it seems to be all good Frank 

 

Not as bad as throwing the economy under a bus for independence!

 

Just look at the Sick Kids hospital for examples of how the SNP government couldn't run a piss up in a brewery.

[frankblack]

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

I don't know, maybe this message hasn't been clear enough.

 

WTO rules mean what we buy in costs more, a lot more. And we're an island nation, we buy in a lot.

That cost, plus the additional costs associated with such widespread change, gets reflected in the price to consumers.

 

Meanwhile, our exports have become  instantly uncompetitive. Who will buy our dairy at 140% of the old price, when other dairy is available cheaper?

 

The reverse applies as I pointed out above.

 

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

We produce 65% of the food needed to feed the UK. The other 35% just went up in price massively and we've got no money because no one will buy our stuff.

 

Trouble's coming if we go WTO.

 

I see a lot of food imported from the likes of Kenya that weren't in the EU the last time I checked.

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

The reverse applies as I pointed out above.

 

 

I see a lot of food imported from the likes of Kenya that weren't in the EU the last time I checked.

 

And as we have no trade deal with Kenya, WTO tariffs will apply, unlike now where we benefit from the EU's block deal. 

[frankblack]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

And as we have no trade deal with Kenya, WTO tariffs will apply, unlike now where we benefit from the EU's block deal. 

 

We will see as without a trade deal Kenya loses access to a big export market.  I guess it comes down to whether the EU will relax its Irish Backstop problem or will come to the table and negotiate when their bluff is finally called - something TM wasn't ever going to do.

 

I still think the Germans would throw Ireland under a bus to protect their own interests when push comes to shove.

Edited August 9, 2019 by frankblack

[SectionDJambo]

Remember when Donald said he had told Theresa how to negotiate with the EU, but she hadn't listened to him.

I wonder if this doing nothing and blaming the EU on a no deal outcome, if they don't come crawling, is what Donald told Theresa, and has now told Boris.

Boris, being scared of Donald's love in with Nigel, doing as he's told.

I also wonder if Boris is being lined up as the patsy of the Tory right wing, when things go horribly wrong for all of us, except the rich elite.

The next 3 months are going to be interesting.

[Unknown user]

Just now, frankblack said:

 

We will see as without a trade deal Kenya loses access to a big export market.  I guess it comes down to whether the EU will relax its Irish Backstop problem or will come to the table and negotiate when their bluff is finally called - something TM wasn't ever going to do.

 

Let's not forget as well that Kenya is four and a half thousand miles away - that's about the same distance away as Denver Colorado ffs. Is that really a viable answer to our food supply issues?

 

 

[jake]

37 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

And as we have no trade deal with Kenya, WTO tariffs will apply, unlike now where we benefit from the EU's block deal. 

The EU and its relationship with food and trade and poverty is shameful.

 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, jake said:

The EU and its relationship with food and trade and poverty is shameful.

 

 

Sound, but the subject is leaving the EU with no deal, that's another thread altogether. 

Britain will suffer if we leave without a deal. Normal people I mean, Boris and that will be fine, it's us that are in trouble. 

[Pans Jambo]

49 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Not as bad as throwing the economy under a bus for independence!

 

Just look at the Sick Kids hospital for examples of how the SNP government couldn't run a piss up in a brewery.

Desperate post. 

So, lets test the water. 

If its a proven fact that Scotland will be financially better off with independence, would you vote Yes for that or vote to stay part of the union?

[frankblack]

37 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Let's not forget as well that Kenya is four and a half thousand miles away - that's about the same distance away as Denver Colorado ffs. Is that really a viable answer to our food supply issues?

 

 

 

That might be the case, but Tesco uses them a lot.

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Pans Jambo said:

Desperate post. 

So, lets test the water. 

If its a proven fact that Scotland will be financially better off with independence, would you vote Yes for that or vote to stay part of the union?

 

How exactly are you going to prove it when the SNP won't publish concrete plans of their vision post independence?

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

That might be the case, but Tesco uses them a lot.

 

Mate your case has been reduced to "Kenya will sort us out"

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

 

Mate your case has been reduced to "Kenya will sort us out"

 

Not really - contracts with the major supermarkets are worth a lot of money.

[jake]

29 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Sound, but the subject is leaving the EU with no deal, that's another thread altogether. 

Britain will suffer if we leave without a deal. Normal people I mean, Boris and that will be fine, it's us that are in trouble. 

I doubt it will make any difference tbh.

One way or the other.

But the EU and its policies on food punish the poor.

 

[ri Alban]

5 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Isn't there an obvious problem with that?

 

EU countries will have to pay WTO rates to trade with us, while UK firms e.g. farms can sell their dairy, meat, fruit and veg without those charges throughout the UK? 

 

As for Fish, are there no fish in UK waters?  The EU would cease to have access to those waters as the common fishery policy would have been revoked.

Don't worry, the EU will have access to Scottish waters, under Scotland's terms. 👍

[ri Alban]

3 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

How exactly are you going to prove it when the SNP won't publish concrete plans of their vision post independence?

Brexit seems ok and all those concrete plans.

 

Rule Britannia, Frank. Just admit it and move on.

Edited August 10, 2019 by ri Alban

[frankblack]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Don't worry, the EU will have access to Scottish waters, under Scotland's terms. 👍

 

Not quite.  The Nats would throw our fishermen under a bus to get into the EU.

 

The spanish would demand total access to our waters and you would give them it unconditionally.

[Pans Jambo]

7 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

How exactly are you going to prove it when the SNP won't publish concrete plans of their vision post independence?

You avoided that. 

I said ‘IF’. 

I suspect your answer will be no which means youre wasting yours and everyone elses time debating on here if your mind is set & not for changing. 

Whats the point?

[Pans Jambo]

8 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Not quite.  The Nats would throw our fishermen under a bus to get into the EU.

 

The spanish would demand total access to our waters and you would give them it unconditionally.

Most of the fishing people I speak to in my line of work voted to remain in the EU. 

Who do you think they sell their fish/shellfish to?

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, Pans Jambo said:

You avoided that. 

I said ‘IF’. 

I suspect your answer will be no which means youre wasting yours and everyone elses time debating on here if your mind is set & not for changing. 

Whats the point?

 

I voted Yes last time on the basis of thinking they had everything thought out in their white paper.

 

That got proven to be nonsense in as little as a few months when the oil price collapsed.  Forgive me for being sceptical this time when all they give are soundbites this time.

[frankblack]

5 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Most of the fishing people I speak to in my line of work voted to remain in the EU. 

Who do you think they sell their fish/shellfish to?

 

They would continue to do so as The Spanish have a massive demand for our fish.  I don't think they have much in the way of alternative sources.

Edited August 10, 2019 by frankblack

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, frankblack said:

 

I voted Yes last time on the basis of thinking they had everything thought out in their white paper.

 

That got proven to be nonsense in as little as a few months when the oil price collapsed.  Forgive me for being sceptical this time when all they give are soundbites this time.

It did collapse. But then it came back up again. 

Be keen to see Westminsters white paper on Brexit. The dont even have enough ferries 😂. 

 

So anyway, Yes next time then?

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, frankblack said:

 

They would continue to do so as The Spanish have a massive demand for our fish.

Not at WTO prices Frank

[frankblack]

Just now, Pans Jambo said:

Not at WTO prices Frank

 

If they can't source the product cheaper elsewhere then they will.  I suspect the Spanish might be very keen to do a deal not just for this but tourism etc.

[Pans Jambo]

12 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

If they can't source the product cheaper elsewhere then they will.  I suspect the Spanish might be very keen to do a deal not just for this but tourism etc.

A bit back of a fag packet that!

Anyway, we both know that Westminster will give away rights to Scottish fishing waters to the EU in the blink of an eye in any future negotiations. Its the Westminster way. 

Edited August 10, 2019 by Pans Jambo

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Don't worry, the EU will have access to Scottish waters, under Scotland's terms. 👍

Seems the EU could fish in UK waters as and when it wants, come Brexit

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49302778

[Unknown user]

9 hours ago, jake said:

I doubt it will make any difference tbh.

One way or the other.

But the EU and its policies on food punish the poor.

 

 

You doubt massive increases in prices while our exports become uncompetitive will make any difference?

 

Jesus mate, if you can't see the turmoil that would cause you're choosing not to look. 

[jake]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

 

You doubt massive increases in prices while our exports become uncompetitive will make any difference?

 

Jesus mate, if you can't see the turmoil that would cause you're choosing not to look. 

I see an opportunity buddy.

To strike free fair trade deals with the poorest African nations.

To cut vat on food .

That's what I would like to see.

Or some of what I'd like.

Or is that to idyllic?

[Justin Z]

Just now, jake said:

I see an opportunity buddy.

To strike free fair trade deals with the poorest African nations.

To cut vat on food .

That's what I would like to see.

Or some of what I'd like.

Or is that to idyllic?

 

Perhaps not idyllic, but if you want it to actually happen, this is completely the wrong way to go about it, yes.

[jake]

Just now, Justin Z said:

 

Perhaps not idyllic, but if you want it to actually happen, this is completely the wrong way to go about it, yes.

You think the EU will drop its protection of it markets relating to food from the worlds poorest countries?

 

Maybe you are right but what other way is there?

 

 

 

 

[RobboM]

40 minutes ago, jake said:

I see an opportunity buddy.

To strike free fair trade deals with the poorest African nations.

To cut vat on food .

That's what I would like to see.

Or some of what I'd like.

Or is that to idyllic?

Food is usually zero rated currently

[CJGJ]

Loving the 'leaked' e mail re fishing after Brexit......hard luck those involved in the industry who were selfish to the extreme and made up scare stories to support their views....boo hoo

 

Looking forward to chlorinated chicken from the USA..just what leavers voted for I guess

 

The leavers are suddenly seeing what the intelligent managed to work out a while ago

 

The benefits of in vastly exceed those of leaving...………….unless of course there were other reasons people voted to leave and are not brave enough to share with us...….hmmmmmmmm

[Justin Z]

44 minutes ago, jake said:

You think the EU will drop its protection of it markets relating to food from the worlds poorest countries?

 

Maybe you are right but what other way is there?

 

I would start with whatever way doesn't involve Tories leading it, and it would instantly have a greater chance of success, even if it was absolutely pie-in-the-sky itself.

[jake]

13 minutes ago, RobboM said:

Food is usually zero rated currently

20% vat mate.

[jake]

13 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

Loving the 'leaked' e mail re fishing after Brexit......hard luck those involved in the industry who were selfish to the extreme and made up scare stories to support their views....boo hoo

 

Looking forward to chlorinated chicken from the USA..just what leavers voted for I guess

 

The leavers are suddenly seeing what the intelligent managed to work out a while ago

 

The benefits of in vastly exceed those of leaving...………….unless of course there were other reasons people voted to leave and are not brave enough to share with us...….hmmmmmmmm

Like immigration ?

I voted leave on that too.

[jake]

7 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

I would start with whatever way doesn't involve Tories leading it, and it would instantly have a greater chance of success, even if it was absolutely pie-in-the-sky itself.

That's a pretty big ask.

Especially since the EU is essentially conservative.

[RobboM]

3 minutes ago, jake said:

20% vat mate.

Aye, if you live on Greggs steak bakes, crisps and lucozade

"Food and drink for human consumption is usually zero-rated but some items are always standard-rated. These include catering, alcoholic drinks, confectionery, crisps and savoury snacks, hot food, sports drinks, hot takeaways, ice cream, soft drinks and mineral water." 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-of-vat-on-different-goods-and-services


 

[Don Dan]

Source BBC

 

The contents of your shopping basket may change

What you find on the supermarket shelves could well be where you see the first effects.

Almost 30% of our food currently comes from the EU, and it is likely that some foods, such as fresh vegetables and fruit, will become more scarce and more expensive in the event of no deal.

Increased import taxes and transport delays could all mean a rise in prices. And if a no-deal Brexit was followed by a fall in the value of the pound, that would also have the same effect.

Supermarkets themselves have warned that there could be empty shelves and higher prices.

And Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said that, in a worst-case scenario, our shopping bills could increase by 10%.

The government has said that while a no-deal Brexit alone won't lead to food shortages, consumer behaviour could. Panic buying could mean food retailers run short of some products.

In preparation, supermarkets say, they have been stockpiling some foods - but they are unable to do that for some fresh fruit and veg.

Sainsbury's has also said October would be one of the worst times for the UK to exit the EU without a deal because warehouse capacity is already strained by the seasonal stock build-up ahead of Black Friday and Christmas, limiting supermarkets' ability to store goods ahead of Brexit.

Shoppers planning to buy from companies based in the EU, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland after a no-deal Brexit have also been warned credit and debit card charges may be higher and payments may take longer.

[ri Alban]

5 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Not quite.  The Nats would throw our fishermen under a bus to get into the EU.

 

The spanish would demand total access to our waters and you would give them it unconditionally.

Unlike the Wm government who throw them under King Kong's right fit in the 70s, It will benefit Scotland.

Edited August 10, 2019 by ri Alban

[ri Alban]

4 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

If they can't source the product cheaper elsewhere then they will.  I suspect the Spanish might be very keen to do a deal not just for this but tourism etc.

If there is no FTA the EU cannot discriminate. 

Wait a minute, most of the fishing waters is the Scottish coast, so why would Spain veto Scottish EU membership, if they love our fish so much.

[annushorribilis III]

1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:

in the event of a no deal. My understanding is we default to WTO conditions. This will mean that their will be increased levy on pretty much every good we use and sell. This will be on everything from a loaf of bread to cars that we don’t domestically produce. Which is a lot as the UK is fundamentally a service economy. 

 

So prices will automatically increase, pretty much immediately, as these costs will be passed onto the end consumer. So you will will have much less money in your pocket. Furthermore, due to issue created by hard borders we are likely to see reduced supply as good have to clear revised checks. This reduced demand will further exasperate the price increase, due to the supply and demand principals  

 

On top of this the pound will be worth a lot less. (I could write a Lawson length post on the effects of the pound but no point) In the event of a no deal it will drop the pound even further. Parity with the dollar is likely and a pound will be worth less than a euro, whilst the general trend will continue against pretty much every other currency in the world 

 

Now the argument that will make uk goods more attractive as they will be cheaper, would have some merit if it wasn’t facing hefty levies on top of the base price. In addition increased custom controls will makes good less attractive due to timescales. 

 

Increased costs cause inflation, which will likely increase to rates we haven’t seen since the 70’s. Most in the country, myself included, have never experienced massive inflation. 

 

However it will impact every aspect of people life from food shopping to interest rates which have been low for a very long time. This creates pressure on wages to increase, however, due a contracting economy business will not be able to match. Their income will be dropping whilst costs are increase. This will result in loss of jobs and closure of business. 

 

So with jobs jobs losses and less money swirling about the economy it will compound the problems even worse. Plus we’re long overdue a recession for a variety of reasons.

 

The people who will suffer most are at the lower end of economic scale as they do not have means to sit or buffer these impact. 

 

In addition the markets will go mental and that will impact a everyone but that’s another post.

 

i find it surprising believe a no deal will make little difference to people’s life. Belief is the death of reason, I guess. 

 

Though I open to listen to the rational and interested in seeing the positives a no deal will bring. 

 

(I should read this back but my flight is about to take off)

Pretty good summary of what I see is the outcome of crashing out.  

On the inflation front - a lot of people are going to experience something us older heids thought was a thing of the past : high inflation. With the pound continuing to cash against Dollar/Euro  & tarrifs under WTO rules (assuming No Deal) this is inevitable.  As a bit of background , and  as a possible forecast of what lies ahead : my wife works for a financial services company and for over a year now mortgage applicants have had to convince borrowers they can sustain interest rates of 15%.   

[jake]

31 minutes ago, RobboM said:

Aye, if you live on Greggs steak bakes, crisps and lucozade

"Food and drink for human consumption is usually zero-rated but some items are always standard-rated. These include catering, alcoholic drinks, confectionery, crisps and savoury snacks, hot food, sports drinks, hot takeaways, ice cream, soft drinks and mineral water." 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-of-vat-on-different-goods-and-services


 

Cheaper chicken bakes you say?

 

Get us out NOW !