Indy Ref Part Deux

[aussieh]

"It's not really that much"

 

You should email Hurricane and tell them not to bother then? Post their reply on here and give us all a giggle.

Oh naw, Just wait until the removal of Trident frees up the oil in the Clyde estuary and the west coast of Scotland. We'll really be Fecked then, see this fecking oil, it doesnae hauf make us skint, SM. Get it to feck.

 

1 billion barrels and that's 2 years from now when oil will be double the price it is now.

[frankblack]

Wilful mismanagement of Scottish oil to inflict maximum damage on the Scottish economy.

 

 

There is no such thing as the Scottish economy.  The economy for the UK is managed by the Chancellor in number 11 Downing St.

 

This is a conspiracy theory classic.

[frankblack]

Oh naw, Just wait until the removal of Trident frees up the oil in the Clyde estuary and the west coast of Scotland. We'll really be Fecked then, see this fecking oil, it doesnae hauf make us skint, SM. Get it to feck.

 

1 billion barrels and that's 2 years from now when oil will be double the price it is now.

 

Perhaps if they allowed Fracking they could make easier money on Oil...

[SwindonJambo]

The Oil fund has nothing to do with it. In any case it was not set up until 1996 https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/about-the-fund/

 

Direct comparison between the U.K. and Norway is possible purely on tax terms. This often quoted report shows that Norway's government gets $9.10 more for every barrel  in taxation. It also gets a similar amount in returns from state investment http://www.resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue . Norway gets almost $20 more for every barrel.

 

It's not too late for an oil fund for us as yesterday's news shows. The trouble with the U.K. is that there are no plans for building and investing in the country. The priority is to give away our wealth to private companies and individuals. The same people who will fund the Tory and Labour party in return. We are apparently philosophically opposed to state investment but it's worked well for Norway.

 

 

Good post Doug.  It's nice to see that respectful, articulate and informed debate is still possible from time to time.  I've already agreed with Pans Jambo that Norway has managed its oil wealth far better than we have.  They do have about double what we have but that's not to say ours couldn't have been better managed.

 

Norway has huge state control of its oil.  But it has open free market economics for everything else.  It just shows the folly of applying the same philosophy to everything. Free market economics usually works best but by no means always.

 

Unfortunately, the days of $100 a barrel oil are probably long gone for a while with the World awash with cheap oil and huge overstock, a situation likely to continue for several years with plentiful cheap shale oil in America.

[Boris]

 

There is no such thing as the Scottish economy.  The economy for the UK is managed by the Chancellor in number 11 Downing St.

 

This is a conspiracy theory classic.

 

So the Chancellor is to blame for Scotland underperforming compared to rUK?  Thanks for clearing that up.

 

Perhaps if Scotland ran its own economy, it would do a better job?

[Boris]

It also backs up the claims that the GERS figures are just pure guess work as there is no data to back up the Scottish Economy, as it doesn't exist.

 

FB's got it covered...

 

[The Don]

Scotland bought the Shetland islands, if the occupants are not happy, we'll soon replace them.

And you greet about the big bad Tories and "wastemonster" yet you display the same attitude towards a set of islands that quite rightly want their own independence.

 

 

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[Thunderstruck]

Oh naw, Just wait until the removal of Trident frees up the oil in the Clyde estuary and the west coast of Scotland. We'll really be Fecked then, see this fecking oil, it doesnae hauf make us skint, SM. Get it to feck.

 

1 billion barrels and that's 2 years from now when oil will be double the price it is now.

You do know that the technology exists to exploit anything that might exist in the Clyde Estuary?

 

You will find an example near Helmsdale where on-shore directional drilling is tapping off-shore fields.

 

I wonder why nobody has bothered?

 

Incidentally, the same rock strata found in the Estuary extend northeast below your neck of the woods. Maybe we should get a few rigs onto Linwood Moss (but not under the flight path). I'm sure they will again turn out to be "dry" unless the reservoir has filled up since the mid-80s but it will be fun trying.

[aussieh]

And you greet about the big bad Tories and "wastemonster" yet you display the same attitude towards a set of islands that quite rightly want their own independence.

 

 

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They belong to Scotland, bought from Norway.

[aussieh]

You do know that the technology exists to exploit anything that might exist in the Clyde Estuary?

 

You will find an example near Helmsdale where on-shore directional drilling is tapping off-shore fields.

 

I wonder why nobody has bothered?

 

Incidentally, the same rock strata found in the Estuary extend northeast below your neck of the woods. Maybe we should get a few rigs onto Linwood Moss (but not under the flight path). I'm sure they will again turn out to be "dry" unless the reservoir has filled up since the mid-80s but it will be fun trying.

Maybe you should ask the Scottish secretaries of the 1980s.

[The Don]

They belong to Scotland, bought from Norway.

Tell that to the residents. They don't want to be Scottish or Norwegian. This isn't the 19th century where islands and its residents can be bought and sold. The SNP promised them more devolved powers 3 years ago because they wanted a separate Indy referendum on their own independence they are still waiting for the more powers, yet you lot keep bumping your gums about broken promises jeez it's partly your reasoning for wanting another Indy ref. They have a right just as much as you do if that be the case.

 

 

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[aussieh]

Tell that to the residents. They don't want to be Scottish or Norwegian. This isn't the 19th century where islands and its residents can be bought and sold. The SNP promised them more devolved powers 3 years ago because they wanted a separate Indy referendum on their own independence they are still waiting for the more powers, yet you lot keep bumping your gums about broken promises jeez it's partly your reasoning for wanting another Indy ref. They have a right just as much as you do if that be the case.

 

 

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15th century but it was ours before that when we kick the shire right out if Norway. Its Scotland not Norway, not Britain. Scotland. End of. Oors.

[Thunderstruck]

Maybe you should ask the Scottish secretaries of the 1980s.

I was asking you.

[aussieh]

I was asking you.

Well oil was detected in 1981 and further exploration was denied. So again , you'll need to ask them.

[aussieh]

15th century but it was ours before that when we kicked the shite right out of Norway. Its Scotland, not Norway, not Britain. Scotland. End of. Oors.

[Thunderstruck]

Well oil was detected in 1981 and further exploration was denied. So again , you'll need to ask them.

"Detected" - so, seismic survey indicated rock strata with potential to hold hydrocarbons.

 

Perhaps the array of dry wells on-shore pointed to a pointless and expensive exercise in getting rigs into drill the Clyde.

[aussieh]

"Detected" - so, seismic survey indicated rock strata with potential to hold hydrocarbons.

 

Perhaps the array of dry wells on-shore pointed to a pointless and expensive exercise in getting rigs into drill the Clyde.

Naw, that'll be the subs.

[jack D and coke]

 

There is no such thing as the Scottish economy. The economy for the UK is managed by the Chancellor in number 11 Downing St.

 

This is a conspiracy theory classic.

If that's the case what's this huge Scottish defecit I keep hearing about then?

[jack D and coke]

Tell that to the residents. They don't want to be Scottish or Norwegian. This isn't the 19th century where islands and its residents can be bought and sold. The SNP promised them more devolved powers 3 years ago because they wanted a separate Indy referendum on their own independence they are still waiting for the more powers, yet you lot keep bumping your gums about broken promises jeez it's partly your reasoning for wanting another Indy ref. They have a right just as much as you do if that be the case.

 

 

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But what currency will they use? Sheep?? Will they form a Shetland central bank?? Will they have an army to protect them from the imminent and incredible threats that seemingly faces an independent Scotland? Surely Shetland needs nuclear protection as they're a lot closer to Russia mind. Is their trade pretty much all with Scotland? What will they do then? EU in or out?? Will Spain veto Shetland I mean they don't want to encourage Catalonia now eh!! Have these chookter separatists thought this through??

And anyway international laws dictate that Shetland only has access to waters on a certain radius to their coastline the rest would be Scotlands. It might only be around 30 miles IIRC.

But I'm all for them going it alone if they want to.

[Hasselhoff]

A link for all the GERS deniers

 

https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/amp/

 

 

[Boris]

A link for all the GERS deniers

 

https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/amp/

 

A good link.  Fraser of Allander Institute is a decent source.

[Stuart Lyon]

Ha Ha just posted link on More SNP Nonsense thread

[Boris]

A good point at the end of that Fraser of Allander link:

 

 

 

What does GERS not tell us: What about Scotland?s balance sheet ? i.e. the assets and liabilities of the nation? What about Scotland?s private sector accounts ? how much national income do we receive each year? Who owns this wealth and how is it distributed?

These are the sorts of questions we should be debating. Questioning the integrity and robustness of National Statistics is not one of them.

[HaymarketJambo]

Ha Ha just posted link on More SNP Nonsense thread

 

Good - SNP 10 points.  

[The Don]

But what currency will they use? Sheep?? Will they form a Shetland central bank?? Will they have an army to protect them from the imminent and incredible threats that seemingly faces an independent Scotland? Surely Shetland needs nuclear protection as they're a lot closer to Russia mind. Is their trade pretty much all with Scotland? What will they do then? EU in or out?? Will Spain veto Shetland I mean they don't want to encourage Catalonia now eh!! Have these chookter separatists thought this through??

And anyway international laws dictate that Shetland only has access to waters on a certain radius to their coastline the rest would be Scotlands. It might only be around 30 miles IIRC.

But I'm all for them going it alone if they want to.

Utter gibberish. Going by that same logic Scotland only has claim to the same mileage of coastline. It works both ways.

 

 

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[Boris]

Would an independent Scotland spend ?3.7bn on defence?

 

That's the per capita spend based on the 2017 spend of ?45.6bn (http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_defence_spending_30.html) for the UK.

 

?3.7bn is a lot more than 2% of GDP (based on the FoA article which equates ?570m as 0.4% of GDP), if 2% of GDP then almost a ?1bn saving.  Assuming I have understood the figures, of course.

 

So what I am saying is that I agree that GERS figures are estimates, and that they are good a set of stats as we can have, but some of the non devolved spending that is worked out per capita may be higher than is needed, if that makes sense.  So the actual starting point of an independent Scotland may be different from what the GERS figures say.

 

A bit Rumsfeldian, but things we know, things we know we don't know and things we don't know we don't know.

[deesidejambo]

Would an independent Scotland spend ?3.7bn on defence?

 

That's the per capita spend based on the 2017 spend of ?45.6bn (http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_defence_spending_30.html) for the UK.

 

?3.7bn is a lot more than 2% of GDP (based on the FoA article which equates ?570m as 0.4% of GDP), if 2% of GDP then almost a ?1bn saving. Assuming I have understood the figures, of course.

 

So what I am saying is that I agree that GERS figures are estimates, and that they are good a set of stats as we can have, but some of the non devolved spending that is worked out per capita may be higher than is needed, if that makes sense. So the actual starting point of an independent Scotland may be different from what the GERS figures say.

 

A bit Rumsfeldian, but things we know, things we know we don't know and things we don't know we don't know.

Scotland needs to sustain a population of 5 million. Much of that population is a result of the old industries such as mining, shipbuilding, car production, metal production etc.

 

All these labour-intensive industries are gone.

 

Scotland cannot support a population of 5 million on fishing, farming, whisky, and tourism.

 

And oil is gone. The income from that is now negligible and many new fields pay no tax whatsoever.

 

The Hurricane fields will be no different.

[jack D and coke]

Utter gibberish. Going by that same logic Scotland only has claim to the same mileage of coastline. It works both ways.

 

 

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No I can't find the article(I'll Keep looking though) but something tells me it's around 12 miles off their shores under something called UNCLOS III if they want to gain their independence as they fall into Scotlands exclusive economic zone so there's not too much oil in there.

You come across like a new Thrasher John btw. You the same poster?

[The Don]

No I can't find the article(I'll Keep looking though) but something tells me it's around 12 miles off their shores under something called UNCLOS III if they want to gain their independence as they fall into Scotlands exclusive economic zone so there's not too much oil in there.

You come across like a new Thrasher John btw. You the same poster?

I don't know anything about international law regarding waters etc. other than a country owns so much. That law/rule applies to all countries it isn't one law for one and another law for someone else. That's the point I was making. Also going by that logic Scotland could lose oil fields if we became independent there are some oil and gas fields further down the east coast. Some could fall into NI territory. I've no idea where they are all positioned.

 

The rest was reference to your crass statement regarding currency etc and what they would use if independent. Bit like an English man saying what's the Scots going to use for currency ? The Haggis? It's a bit difficult to take the rest of your post seriously with gibberish like that.

 

 

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[jack D and coke]

I don't know anything about international law regarding waters etc. other than a country owns so much. That law/rule applies to all countries it isn't one law for one and another law for someone else. That's the point I was making. Also going by that logic Scotland could lose oil fields if we became independent there are some oil and gas fields further down the east coast. Some could fall into NI territory. I've no idea where they are all positioned.

 

The rest was reference to your crass statement regarding currency etc and what they would use if independent. Bit like an English man saying what's the Scots going to use for currency ? The Haggis? It's a bit difficult to take the rest of your post seriously with gibberish like that.

 

 

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Oh really and your posting style isn't utterly childish naw? You've posted more shite on this thread than anybody else in the last week or so so easy with the gibberish ya plum.

[Scallywag]

There is a local group dedicated to Shetland Independence but they are quite small, to be honest its more an anti-snp group than a political movement. Oil finds near to Shetland will not increase support, we all know there is more oil out there. The fishing industry is of much more political importance to Shetland, we are basically plonked right in the middle of the fishing grounds. The local fisherman have been very vocal in their support for Brexit, I was really surprised that Shetland still voted to remain in the EU. It will be interesting to see if the fisherman's faith in the Tory's to negotiate a better deal is repaid.

 

Dismissing people as Chookters wont help convince them that an Independent Scotland will be able to see past the Central Belt. The SNP could do much more to build trust up here, I hope they do but so far they haven't delivered on much. I hope that changes.

[Harry Potter]

And how much would we get back in the form of subsidies and investment?

 

Yet again another ill informed post. You Yoons are littering this thread with them.

Im a yoon, ha ha, been called worse.

[The Don]

Im a yoon, ha ha, been called worse.

The other one the halfwit used the other day was "onionist"

 

Must have really worked that brain cell thinking up that bit of comical genius.

 

 

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[jack D and coke]

Why you getting so angry?

 

Your the stereotypical angry wee bitter nationalist who doesn't like being called out for something. Your doing all the childish name calling here yet calling my posts childish?

 

Step away from the keyboard for a while and have another JD and C to calm yourself down. :2thumbs:

 

 

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It's "You're" btw and I'm not a nationalist.

I've been getting increasingly nipped with your posts lately as you bring zero to the thread. I'm all for debating this stuff and I don't get annoyed at getting proved wrong or trying to see others people views.

You are here to wind people up nothing else.

[jambos are go!]

Hard to believe from this thread. that the justification for this referendum is supposed to be Brexit. More like excuse.

[Thunderstruck]

I don't know anything about international law regarding waters etc. other than a country owns so much. That law/rule applies to all countries it isn't one law for one and another law for someone else. That's the point I was making. Also going by that logic Scotland could lose oil fields if we became independent there are some oil and gas fields further down the east coast. Some could fall into NI territory. I've no idea where they are all positioned.

 

The rest was reference to your crass statement regarding currency etc and what they would use if independent. Bit like an English man saying what's the Scots going to use for currency ? The Haggis? It's a bit difficult to take the rest of your post seriously with gibberish like that.

 

 

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Fill yer boots, chaps...

 

http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/12/1/505.pdf

 

You will need an Admiralty Chart or several, a parallel rule, dividers, some 2B pencils and an eraser.

 

When you read this, you will see why Rockall is such a prized possession.

[Space Mackerel]

Oh naw, Just wait until the removal of Trident frees up the oil in the Clyde estuary and the west coast of Scotland. We'll really be Fecked then, see this fecking oil, it doesnae hauf make us skint, SM. Get it to feck.

 

1 billion barrels and that's 2 years from now when oil will be double the price it is now.

It's supposed to last until 2050, we will be well independent by then.

 

Imagine the hospitals, schools, roads and statues of Nicola and Alec we could build with it? [emoji41]

[Thunderstruck]

It's supposed to last until 2050, we will be well independent by then.

 

Imagine the hospitals, schools, roads and statues of Nicola and Alec we could build with it? [emoji41]

1 billion barrels/30 years = ? In terms of tax revenue?

 

Did you do last night's homework yet? Have you figured out "reservoir capacity" and "recoverable reserves" yet?

[Space Mackerel]

1 billion barrels/30 years = ? In terms of tax revenue?

 

Did you do last night's homework yet? Have you figured out "reservoir capacity" and "recoverable reserves" yet?

Another "oil is shite" type post. :-/

[Nucky Thompson]

There's hardly a proper Politician in the SNP. They are mostly looney, inbred, anti English foamers and as for that wee weedy green party dude    

[Space Mackerel]

It's happening, it's a goer!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39422747

 

[Thunderstruck]

Another "oil is shite" type post. :-/

Wrong again. It's another "your arithmetic is shite post".

[iantjambo]

.

[deesidejambo]

It's supposed to last until 2050, we will be well independent by then.

 

Imagine the hospitals, schools, roads and statues of Nicola and Alec we could build with it? [emoji41]

None.

 

A billion barrels is one year of current UKCS production which is not a "bonanza". And Hurricane will of course over estimate that. The real number will become apparent once the due diligence assurance is done, but it won't be a billion barrels.

 

As a WOS field the development and operating costs will be such that the field may well Bec be no tax no royalty i.e. no Govt income except Corporation tax which will have the development costs written off against it.

 

You can pash on about it though.

 

For normal people - the revenues to the treasury from NS oil will be next to nothing in future and there is nothing the SNP can do about it, hence it being removed from future Indy treasury calculations as announced by, wait for it, the SNP.

[manaliveits105]

HAVE A POLL TO SEE IF THE COUNTRY WANTS A REFERENDUM KRANKIE ( We dont)

 

By the way what about these absolute bawbags outside parliament with the flags - deary me.

[Captain Price]

.

[Nucky Thompson]

 

 

By the way what about these absolute bawbags outside parliament with the flags - deary me.

Was it the jobless, inbred, tree hugging lunatics that had set up camp before

[Sidsnot]

Best laugh I've had in ages Ruth 'I lick May's bum' Davidson trying to talk on STV news,wee dug barks every time she opens her FAT gub.

Brilliant.

[Space Mackerel]

None.

 

A billion barrels is one year of current UKCS production which is not a "bonanza". And Hurricane will of course over estimate that. The real number will become apparent once the due diligence assurance is done, but it won't be a billion barrels.

 

As a WOS field the development and operating costs will be such that the field may well Bec be no tax no royalty i.e. no Govt income except Corporation tax which will have the development costs written off against it.

 

You can pash on about it though.

 

For normal people - the revenues to the treasury from NS oil will be next to nothing in future and there is nothing the SNP can do about it, hence it being removed from future Indy treasury calculations as announced by, wait for it, the SNP.

Whatever

 

Imagine if you asked any country on this planet and went:

 

"Here, would like the raw product and the subsequent tax take from North Sea oil on your door step?"

 

"Nah, its shite, no thanks, keep it"

 

[emoji23]

[Adam Murray]

It's all very 'People's Front of Judea', or was it 'Judean People's Front', let's have a vote to see if we can ask permission to have another vote