Even More SNP Nonsense

[deesidejambo]

I know, I know, oil is shite, it's a just a burden on our economy.

Nobody said that. I just posted a simple calculation that shows you are talking bollocks again.

 

You believe everything the MSM tells you.

[Space Mackerel]

Nobody said that. I just posted a simple calculation that shows you are talking bollocks again.

 

You believe everything the MSM tells you.

Fag packet accounts.

 

Dunno why my mate studied 4 years at Aberdeen Uni to get where he is today. Fire over your CV and I'll get you 2 hooked up.

[Space Mackerel]

Are you sure you aren't Derek Mackay? Saw a video of him saying the same thing in 2013 when people were asking why the Scottish gov estimates of oil price were so high compared to OBR.

 

When campaigning does begin for indyref2 eventually, all these old videos are going to surface and show nationalists up for what they are - people that will say or do anything to get a vote no matter if true or not

 

Right you are...

[deesidejambo]

Fag packet accounts.

 

Dunno why my mate studied 4 years at Aberdeen Uni to get where he is today. Fire over your CV and I'll get you 2 hooked up.

Well if you could count then you would also know that to produce 600 million at 17 thousand a day will take 100 years.

 

Even a 10-year old can see that. But you can't.

[The Comedian]

Well if you could count then you would also know that to produce 600 million at 17 thousand a day will take 100 years.

 

Even a 10-year old can see that. But you can't.

 

From a selfish point of view for work I take it the new Hurricane find will be developed? Clair Ridge has out there, Mariner this year and Culzean soon after. A quick google says ghe water is 160m so is that too deep for a platform? Much better for jobs than a FPSO.

[deesidejambo]

From a selfish point of view for work I take it the new Hurricane find will be developed? Clair Ridge has out there, Mariner this year and Culzean soon after. A quick google says ghe water is 160m so is that too deep for a platform? Much better for jobs than a FPSO.

Platform would be ok at 160m but like Clair it is likely to need more than one, maybe more than two platforms. With an FPSO the wells will all be subsea and scarily expensive so I'd estimate they will go the platform route like Clair Ridge.

 

The issue may be the export route, either pipeline or shuttle tanker.

 

I'd say at 50 per bbl development may be tricky in the short term and they will need to raise capital also. I think they may wait and see but either way the treasury won't get a penny at 50.

[The Comedian]

Platform would be ok at 160m but like Clair it is likely to need more than one, maybe more than two platforms. With an FPSO the wells will all be subsea and scarily expensive so I'd estimate they will go the platform route like Clair Ridge.

 

The issue may be the export route, either pipeline or shuttle tanker.

 

I'd say at 50 per bbl development may be tricky in the short term and they will need to raise capital also. I think they may wait and see but either way the treasury won't get a penny at 50.

 

Cheers.

 

I've read they've had no bother raising capital but are looking for big oil to partner up as guarantor. Either way I hope they get it up and running, get they platforms over and gives the trades some work putting them in.

 

[deesidejambo]

Cheers.

 

I've read they've had no bother raising capital but are looking for big oil to partner up as guarantor. Either way I hope they get it up and running, get they platforms over and gives the trades some work putting them in.

 

Yup. They won't get any buy in from big oil. Both Shell and BP are exiting the NS as they have far better places to invest in.

 

However there is tons of private equity capital at the moment so I expect that's where they will be looking. There are also foreign investors who want into the NS so there may be investment from China or Malaysia.

 

I think the development could proceed with fixed platforms but maybe at a slower pace than normal.

[Boris]

Given oil is a reducing resource, even if we can't get it now, won't it become more valuable in the future? So in a long term way are we not sitting on a goldmine?

[Space Mackerel]

Too wee, too poor, to win The Grand National

 

 

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[Maroon Sailor]

Too wee, too poor, to win The Grand National

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First time since when ?

 

How old were you then ?

[deesidejambo]

Given oil is a reducing resource, even if we can't get it now, won't it become more valuable in the future? So in a long term way are we not sitting on a goldmine?

That is a possibility but the problem is the fields are simply depleted and some produce at abut 98% water so the costs to produce and treat all the fluids are preclusive.

 

Also there are increasing numbers of fields now being abandoned, such as Brent for example.  When you abandon the fields and remove the facilities the option to tie-back new fields diminishes so it all gets more uneconomic.

 

Added to that is the global oil glut that indeed one day will run out but with the increase of shale oil and gas it may be a long time before the NS becomes economic again, if ever.

 

So far in 2017 only two exploration wells have been drilled (one interestingly named Sturgeon) and given the very low rig rates at present this must be extremely alarming to the OGA.  The industry awaits the Sturgeon well results.

 

The NS will keep going for a long time but at low rates and most new fields will have no tax and royalty takes.

[manaliveits105]

Expect a photo shortly of Jimmy Krankie with One for Arthur

[Stuart Lyon]

How will we tell which is which?

[Trapper John McIntyre]

How will we tell which is which?

The horse is the good looking one.

[Space Mackerel]

The horse is the good looking one.

Just imagine if we used FPTP for the Holyrood elections John.

 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/what-they-wish-for/

 

 

 

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[Trapper John McIntyre]

'Imagine' and 'Wings' - highly appropriate.

[Space Mackerel]

'Imagine' and 'Wings' - highly appropriate.

Murdo Fraser

 

P 7

W 0

D 0

L 7

 

 

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[JamboX2]

Just imagine if we used FPTP for the Holyrood elections John.

 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/what-they-wish-for/

 

 

 

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This seems to ignore the fact that 73 of the 129 seats at Holyrood are FPTP and tge SNP won a majority of those 73.

 

The reason, in part, we have a mixed system (FPTP and the List) is to ensure as many votes as possible count.

[Space Mackerel]

Well if you could count then you would also know that to produce 600 million at 17 thousand a day will take 100 years.

 

Even a 10-year old can see that. But you can't.

More brutal news :-/

 

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/13874/breaking-parkmead-doubles-stake-in-west-of-shetland-oil-block/

[jack D and coke]

Absolutely incredible how much the British government has convinced us oil is just such a burden.

[deesidejambo]

More brutal news :-/

 

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/13874/breaking-parkmead-doubles-stake-in-west-of-shetland-oil-block/

It certainly is brutal.

 

For you.

 

These are prospects i.e. they are undiscovered. No wells have been drilled and no oil proven to exist. All you see is a statement of prospect value which is yet to be drilled and discovered.

 

But you are such a sucker for the MSM news you fall for the Conpany line. Again.

 

For normal people - only two exploration wells have been drilled in 2017 and neither have been announced as discoveries.

 

This is a major concern to the OGA as dozens of rigs are stacked in the Cromarty, Tay, and Forth estuaries. The rig rates for these are at an all time low so the fact that nobody is taking advantage of this and exploring is not encouraging.

[Space Mackerel]

Absolutely incredible how much the British government has convinced us oil is just such a burden.

They've only convinced the die hard Yoonatics. And then you would have to to be so economic illiterate to actually believe it.

[deesidejambo]

They've only convinced the die hard Yoonatics. And then you would have to to be so economic illiterate to actually believe it.

As always you spout your yoonatic insults.

 

Here's the facts -

 

NS oil treasury revenues in 2016 were ?60 million.

 

This is effectively zero.

 

Production continues to drop and even with the addition of Clair 2, Mariner, and some other fields yet to come on stream, the production forecast continues to reduce as more fields are abandoned. Way more than are coming on stream.

 

This is why the SNP themselves are removing oil revenue from future white paper.

 

So as they are, in your words "economic illiterate" you better tell them at your next meeting,

 

24 billion barrel man.

[Space Mackerel]

As always you spout your yoonatic insults.

 

Here's the facts -

 

NS oil treasury revenues in 2016 were ?60 million.

 

This is effectively zero.

 

Production continues to drop and even with the addition of Clair 2, Mariner, and some other fields yet to come on stream, the production forecast continues to reduce as more fields are abandoned. Way more than are coming on stream.

 

This is why the SNP themselves are removing oil revenue from future white paper.

 

So as they are, in your words "economic illiterate" you better tell them at your next meeting,

 

24 billion barrel man.

Tell you what, why don't you see the yields from the Norway sectors and the Scottish sectors over the last 12 months then explain the massive difference in tax take?

 

This will be good.

[deesidejambo]

Tell you what, why don't you see the yields from the Norway sectors and the Scottish sectors over the last 12 months then explain the massive difference in tax take?

 

This will be good.

Indeed it will. But not for you as you struggle to understand basic arithmetic such as 600 million divided by 17000.

 

For others -

 

The reason for the difference is the UK fields are far older in general than the Norwegian ones such that their operating costs are far higher on a per barrel basis, hence less tax.

 

Secondly, many later UK fields needed tax concession in the first place otherwise they would not be developed at all. You have the UK Govt to thank for letting them go ahead.

 

The Hurricane field will be no different. There is likely to be no tax take at $50 per barrel or the development will not proceed.

 

Either way, the SNP themselves admit future treasury revenue will be excluded, leaving a ?14 billion gap in the White Paper revenue that needs to be addressed.

 

But that's all MSM lies isn't it.

 

In SM world there are 24 billion barrels still to come at $150 per barrel.

 

In the real world it's 5 billion at $50

[Space Mackerel]

You've been brainwashed by the The S*n, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express and the BBC I'm afraid.

[Space Mackerel]

Indeed it will. But not for you as you struggle to understand basic arithmetic such as 600 million divided by 17000.

 

For others -

 

The reason for the difference is the UK fields are far older in general than the Norwegian ones such that their operating costs are far higher on a per barrel basis, hence less tax.

 

Secondly, many later UK fields needed tax concession in the first place otherwise they would not be developed at all. You have the UK Govt to thank for letting them go ahead.

 

The Hurricane field will be no different. There is likely to be no tax take at $50 per barrel or the development will not proceed.

 

Either way, the SNP themselves admit future treasury revenue will be excluded, leaving a ?14 billion gap in the White Paper revenue that needs to be addressed.

 

But that's all MSM lies isn't it.

 

In SM world there are 24 billion barrels still to come at $150 per barrel.

 

In the real world it's 5 billion at $50

More brutal news [emoji849]

 

[deesidejambo]

You've been brainwashed by the The S*n, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express and the BBC I'm afraid.

Just giving facts. None of which you can dispute but mostly because you can't understand them.

 

I don't read any of the papers you quote so you need to try harder.

[Stuart Lyon]

Deeside when it comes to oil SM is like a fish out of water! You keep him straight!

[Geoff the Mince]

Just giving facts. None of which you can dispute but mostly because you can't understand them.

I don't read any of the papers you quote so you need to try harder.

Fishmouth gets his news from Infowars .

 

Says it all .

[deesidejambo]

Deeside when it comes to oil SM is like a fish out of water! You keep him straight!

No point in debating with him: he is unable to understand and just posts yoonatic insults back.

 

The reason I respond to his posts is so that others get info that they can decide upon one way or another. Spacey doesn't have that ability.

 

But his missile full of corpses fired at the Pentagon is a cracker.

[Dawnrazor]

No point in debating with him: he is unable to understand and just posts yoonatic insults back.

The reason I respond to his posts is so that others get info that they can decide upon one way or another. Spacey doesn't have that ability.

But his missile full of corpses fired at the Pentagon is a cracker.

[Space Mackerel]

Just giving facts. None of which you can dispute but mostly because you can't understand them.

 

I don't read any of the papers you quote so you need to try harder.

Deeside when it comes to oil SM is like a fish out of water! You keep him straight!

Fishmouth gets his news from Infowars .

 

Says it all .

No point in debating with him: he is unable to understand and just posts yoonatic insults back.

 

The reason I respond to his posts is so that others get info that they can decide upon one way or another. Spacey doesn't have that ability.

 

But his missile full of corpses fired at the Pentagon is a cracker.

Unlucky gents.

 

How do you like these 2 air to ground laser designated filled with corpses below?

 

http://www.taxjustice.net/2016/08/25/uks-north-sea-oil-revenues-giving-away/

 

 

http://www.chevrontax.info/

[deesidejambo]

 

 

 

 

Unlucky gents.

 

How do you like these 2 air to ground laser designated filled with corpses below?

 

http://www.taxjustice.net/2016/08/25/uks-north-sea-oil-revenues-giving-away/

 

 

http://www.chevrontax.info/

They confirm what I have been saying. The reason there is no tax take is because if there was, the NS would shut down tomorrow at $50 and new fields like Lancaster would not proceed.

 

Spacey just doesn't understand and keeps posting material that shows why Indy Scotland would result in the NS shutting down as Indy Scotland can't afford to subsidise further loss.

 

24 billion barrels. Rubbish

 

$150 per barrel. Rubbish.

[1874robbo]

SM getting tore a new one on the oil argument here.

Stick to what you know mate as it seems pretty obvious you're out your depth here.

P.s I'm the same as you, I know feck all about it either.

[Space Mackerel]

They confirm what I have been saying. The reason there is no tax take is because if there was, the NS would shut down tomorrow at $50 and new fields like Lancaster would not proceed.

 

Spacey just doesn't understand and keeps posting material that shows why Indy Scotland would result in the NS shutting down as Indy Scotland can't afford to subsidise further loss.

 

24 billion barrels. Rubbish

 

$150 per barrel. Rubbish.

But hud on, Isn't the price of oil the same around the world?

 

http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/economy/governments-revenues/

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

SM getting tore a new one on the oil argument here.

Stick to what you know mate as it seems pretty obvious you're out your depth here.

P.s I'm the same as you, I know feck all about it either.

 

But you admit it. 

[deesidejambo]

But hud on, Isn't the price of oil the same around the world?

 

http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/economy/governments-revenues/

 

Indeed it is. What's your point?

[Boris]

They confirm what I have been saying. The reason there is no tax take is because if there was, the NS would shut down tomorrow at $50 and new fields like Lancaster would not proceed.

 

Spacey just doesn't understand and keeps posting material that shows why Indy Scotland would result in the NS shutting down as Indy Scotland can't afford to subsidise further loss.

 

24 billion barrels. Rubbish

 

$150 per barrel. Rubbish.

 

So in other words, it is cheaper for the oil companies to extract oil from Norwegian waters than it is from UK waters?

[Space Mackerel]

So in other words, it is cheaper for the oil companies to extract oil from Norwegian waters than it is from UK waters?

Deeside operates tuck shop accounting practices.

 

Page 3

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/574507cde707eb332424b26a/t/57bd8b6d1b631b72531caed0/1472039836939/ITF+CHEVRON+UK+Long+Report+V13+Low+Res.pdf

[deesidejambo]

So in other words, it is cheaper for the oil companies to extract oil from Norwegian waters than it is from UK waters?

Yup. It's simple. Oil Companies get $50 for every barrel produced.

 

For some mature fields it's costing 50 per barrel to produce. Production costs are the key indicators of ongoing profitability.

 

Hence once a field starts losing money it goes to abandonment,

 

The Brent field being a case in point.

 

The question is - can the industry hang in until the price goes up again? That is where Govt support comes in by means of reduced taxation or other forms of subsidy.

 

So instead of folks complaining about the UK govt subsidising the upstream industry, they should welcome it as a means to ensure survival until the price recovers.

 

But if the price doesn't recover it's very bad news.

 

More and more abandonment applications are being submitted to the OGA.

[Space Mackerel]

Yup. It's simple. Oil Companies get $50 for every barrel produced.

 

For some mature fields it's costing 50 per barrel to produce. Production costs are the key indicators of ongoing profitability.

 

Hence once a field starts losing money it goes to abandonment,

 

The Brent field being a case in point.

 

The question is - can the industry hang in until the price goes up again? That is where Govt support comes in by means of reduced taxation or other forms of subsidy.

 

So instead of folks complaining about the UK govt subsidising the upstream industry, they should welcome it as a means to ensure survival until the price recovers.

 

But if the price doesn't recover it's very bad news.

 

More and more abandonment applications are being submitted to the OGA.

 

 

But but but some more smaller more efficient producers are taking over from the major players.

 

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/highlights/13925/serica-energy-eyes-bp-gas-assets-in-north-sea-hunt/

[deesidejambo]

But but but some more smaller more efficient producers are taking over from the major players.

 

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/highlights/13925/serica-energy-eyes-bp-gas-assets-in-north-sea-hunt/

They certainly are. BP and Shell are actively exiting and the new start companies like Chrysaor are buying in using private equity finance.

 

This means even less revenue to the treasury as their acquisition costs can be written off against tax and I suspect they will also have negotiated further subsidies.

 

But keep banging on. At $50 per barrel the revenue to the treasury is next to zero, whether that be UK or Indy Scotland. That is supported by the treasury data that you can ignore, but others may not.

 

But if you and Nicola want to increase tax in the NS go right ahead. The response will be another 20 abandonment requests.

[Space Mackerel]

They certainly are. BP and Shell are actively exiting and the new start companies like Chrysaor are buying in using private equity finance.

 

This means even less revenue to the treasury as their acquisition costs can be written off against tax and I suspect they will also have negotiated further subsidies.

 

But keep banging on. At $50 per barrel the revenue to the treasury is next to zero, whether that be UK or Indy Scotland. That is supported by the treasury data that you can ignore, but others may not.

 

But if you and Nicola want to increase tax in the NS go right ahead. The response will be another 20 abandonment requests.

In other words...

 

"Shite oil" [emoji23]

 

 

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[deesidejambo]

In other words...

 

"Shite oil" [emoji23]

 

 

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Correct.

 

If you get 50 for it but it costs you 50 to produce it for the mature fields then yes. Surprised you can't grasp that simple concept.

 

To produce oil from Iraqi onshore fields can be done for 2-3 dollars per barrel. Hence the big boys exiting.

 

So once Indy comes you will increase tax on NS fields? Nationalise them?

 

Good luck with that.

[Boris]

Nationalise them?

 

 

 

Should have been like that from the off!

[coconut doug]

Correct.

 

If you get 50 for it but it costs you 50 to produce it for the mature fields then yes. Surprised you can't grasp that simple concept.

 

To produce oil from Iraqi onshore fields can be done for 2-3 dollars per barrel. Hence the big boys exiting.

 

So once Indy comes you will increase tax on NS fields? Nationalise them?

 

Good luck with that.

Why are you not outraged at the U.K. tax take compared to that of Norway? Your notions that we would get almost nothing from revenues in the future are based on the U.K'S lenient tax regime and it is for that reason that Norway has been much more successful than the U.K. IMO..

 

"24 billion barrels. Rubbish"

Ian Wood claims there is 24billion bbls when he wants to persuade governments to reduce taxes and only 12billion bbl when Salmond quotes his figure in support of indy. Salmond is the liar though according to the highly numerate experts on here. https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=sir+ian+wood+24+billion+barrels&spf=1

 

Lots of people have lots of different opinions to suit their agenda, most are badly informed. https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-oil-debate-for-busy-people/#more-31643

If as you say "The reason there is no tax take is because if there was, the NS would shut down tomorrow at $50 and new fields like Lancaster would not proceed." then leave it in the ground. Why should taxpayers subsidise oil companies?

 

What is true is that Norway got almost 3 times the revenue for it's oil despite not producing as much. http://www.resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

How has this come about? Are our wells more costly to exploit? Are the wells deeper, smaller, more faulted or in areas with worse weather? Is U.K. oil of inferior quality or more contaminated? What i do know is that both Norwegian and U.K. oil recovery rates are around 46%. Is there some other reason you experts could share with us to explain how Norway got so muvh from it's oil?

 

Maybe the oil companies, like the Wood group, are able to influence govt policy more easily in the U.K.

http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/north-sea-oil-tax-avoidance-schemes-exposed

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/North-Sea-Oil-Companies-Caught-in-Major-Tax-Avoidance-Scheme.html

Apparently even Denmark got more than the U.K. in revenues last year.

 

It seems to me conditions and resource in Norway and the U.K are broadly similar. Can you explain why Norway does so much better?

[deesidejambo]

Why are you not outraged at the U.K. tax take compared to that of Norway? Your notions that we would get almost nothing from revenues in the future are based on the U.K'S lenient tax regime and it is for that reason that Norway has been much more successful than the U.K. IMO..

 

"24 billion barrels. Rubbish"

Ian Wood claims there is 24billion bbls when he wants to persuade governments to reduce taxes and only 12billion bbl when Salmond quotes his figure in support of indy. Salmond is the liar though according to the highly numerate experts on here. https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=sir+ian+wood+24+billion+barrels&spf=1

 

Lots of people have lots of different opinions to suit their agenda, most are badly informed. https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-oil-debate-for-busy-people/#more-31643

If as you say "The reason there is no tax take is because if there was, the NS would shut down tomorrow at $50 and new fields like Lancaster would not proceed." then leave it in the ground. Why should taxpayers subsidise oil companies?

 

What is true is that Norway got almost 3 times the revenue for it's oil despite not producing as much. http://www.resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

How has this come about? Are our wells more costly to exploit? Are the wells deeper, smaller, more faulted or in areas with worse weather? Is U.K. oil of inferior quality or more contaminated? What i do know is that both Norwegian and U.K. oil recovery rates are around 46%. Is there some other reason you experts could share with us to explain how Norway got so muvh from it's oil?

 

Maybe the oil companies, like the Wood group, are able to influence govt policy more easily in the U.K.

http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/north-sea-oil-tax-avoidance-schemes-exposed

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/North-Sea-Oil-Companies-Caught-in-Major-Tax-Avoidance-Scheme.html

Apparently even Denmark got more than the U.K. in revenues last year.

 

It seems to me conditions and resource in Norway and the U.K are broadly similar. Can you explain why Norway does so much better?

I'll keep it simple for you.

 

Current NS oil production is 900,000 barrels per day.

 

Work out yourself how long, at current rates, with no production decline and no facilities degradation how long it will take to produce 24 billion barrels.

 

Clue - it's 72 years.

 

Add in the production decline of a natural resource like oil and add in the fact that the facilities will never last for 30 years, let alone 72, and you will hopefully accept that 24 billion is nonsense.

 

Work it out for yourself.

 

As for Norway again it's simple and no surprise. The UK fields are at a more advanced stage of depletion than Norway such that operating costs per barrel are higher as the facilities are older and field watercuts higher.

 

But work it out for yourself. How come the UK tax take in 2016 is only 60 million? Are the oil companies all reporting huge profits while avoiding tax? No.

 

Answer - At 50 per barrel the production costs are getting close to the oil price of 50 per barrel, leaving no money left to tax and little left for profit.

 

But no doubt you and Spacey will try to increase tax and thereby sending more fields to abandonment.

 

There is only one solution: the oil price needs to go up soon then all will be happy.

 

In the meantime the U.K. govt is sensibly giving tax concessions to try and keep things going so companies can ride out the storm and return to profitability when the price recovers. But SM seems to also disagree with that approach. Silly SM.

 

Why do you think your SNP are removing oil revenue from future White Paper calculations?

[deesidejambo]

 

Should have been like that from the off!

Well they tried with BNOC.

 

But on a go-forward basis it is an option but pointless.

 

The only solution is to ride it out and hope the price goes up.