Even More SNP Nonsense

[Space Mackerel]

Any Country can veto and Spain already said they would.

 

Admission would come at a price - fishing water access and use the Euro,

Thatcher already did that with fishing rights when we joined, it wouldn't be the first time.

[deesidejambo]

Personally I don't think they would but if they did then I don't see it as such a bad thing anyway. And this adopting the euro is another red herring. You sign up but don't ever have to actually adopt it. Like a few countries have already done.

So it's that or the Pound?

[Thunderstruck]

Any Country can veto and Spain already said they would.

 

Admission would come at a price - fishing water access and use the Euro,

Don't forget the loss of the rebate enjoyed by the U.K. Scotland would find it quite an expensive club to join.

[deesidejambo]

Thatcher already did that with fishing rights when we joined, it wouldn't be the first time.

I know but on the Buchan coast up here they want their waters back. The Spanish will want more access for a start

[jack D and coke]

So it's that or the Pound?

A Scottish pound yes, not that lunacy we were offered the last time tied to the BOE.

[Thunderstruck]

Below is the data which shows why Ecks 24 billion barrels was garbage.

 

Firstly, it is in Oil Companies interests to inflate forecasts for shareholder benefit.

It is in SNPs interest to inflate forecasts for Indy benefit.

 

But there is a way to independently calculate within reason the future production. This is what independent analysts such as WoodMac do, but it is simple for KB'ers to analyse the raw data and make their own judgements within a good degree of accuracy.

 

The method is to use the actual production, as shown here, and extrapolate that into the future.

 

The recent actual UK oil production is around 900,000 to 1 million barrels per day. Most, but not all, is from Scotland.

 

If we take an optimistic value of 1 million then, that equates to 365 million barrels per year. Should be no dispute there.

 

If we take another optimistic assumption that the production never declines (which it does of course) and we forecast the platforms and facilities will last another 30 years, then the remaining reserves are 11 billion barrels, not 24 billion.

 

But in the real world the production declines, it does, and anyone who thinks otherwise is a daftie, so the 11 billion is a significant overestimate, but still well short of the 24 billion promised by Eck.

 

More realistic estimates are an annual decline rate of 5% per annum, which itself could be optimistic, and average remaining facilities lifetimes of no more than 20 years (many facilities are now well past design life). Putting that in gives remaining reserves just below 5 billion.

 

So the real number that can be backed up by actual data is around 5 billion barrels but no doubt the dafties will say production never declines and the facilities will last forever.

 

Its accepted that there are some new fields such as Clair Ridge, Mariner, and some others still to come on stream but their reserves estimates in total are no more than a billion barrels.

 

So where is the 24 billion coming from Eck? The Atlantic Margin? Highly doubtful and nowhere near mature enough to count into forward revenue forecasts. It would be grossly misleading to do so, Eck

 

Cue Spacey saying the Atlantic margin is going to produce massive volumes despite there being limited prospectively there and no interest at all from Oil Companies to explore there, for good reason.

 

But I do applaud the SNP for removing oil from future white papers - they know th above is true and if they come out with more 24 billion barrel nonsense they will get exposed.

Thanks, very interesting.

 

I expect, however, that it has been dismissed by many on here for not pandering to their prejudices.

[doctor jambo]

Don't forget the loss of the rebate enjoyed by the U.K. Scotland would find it quite an expensive club to join.

I don't think that Scotland will worry about a rebate

I really cannot see us being a net contributor

[deesidejambo]

Thanks, very interesting.

 

I expect, however, that it has been dismissed by many on here for not pandering to their prejudices.

At least the info is there for anyone to do their own calcs.

 

But 24 billion was horse shite.

[Space Mackerel]

I know but on the Buchan coast up here they want their waters back. The Spanish will want more access for a start

So they can hammer the stocks and screw their own livelihoods again? If it wasn't for the EU we wouldn't have any fish stocks.

[jack D and coke]

Thatcher already did that with fishing rights when we joined, it wouldn't be the first time.

It was Heath was it not?

[Thunderstruck]

I don't think that Scotland will worry about a rebate

I really cannot see us being a net contributor

You are probably right and I suppose the EU has enough bairns at the teat without wanting another.

[pablo]

Nothing to do with Yes/No or Leave/Remain per se. But it's a fecking brilliant feeling crossing the border from the English side, as I've just done on the west coast mainline. Surely we can all agree on that? That feeling . ..

[Space Mackerel]

It was Heath was it not?

Read it was Thatcher but you may be right. Doesn't matter, whoever it was "sold" our fishermen out way before any future deals.

Way back, when I was a lad, 90's,I knew a few young dudes from Lossie, they used to go out for a couple of weeks at most and come home with a couple of grand, at the ripe old age of 17-18. They usually blew the lot on whisky and eccies.

[Space Mackerel]

Nothing to do with Yes/No or Leave/Remain per se. But it's a fecking brilliant feeling crossing the border from the English side, as I've just done on the west coast mainline. Surely we can all agree on that? That feeling . ..

I used to, but not anymore. Gone are the days when we used to launch our rubbish out the car on the M6 around Carlisle.

 

I actually really like England, I like the people, the Sunday roast culture, all day sessions in a nice proper English pub. I like Geordies, Scousers, Mancs and Cockneys, most people are sound, same as here.

 

It's the Tory and now Nu Labour governments I despise, and the rich elite and corporations they protect to our National detriment.

[pablo]

I used to, but not anymore. Gone are the days when we used to launch our rubbish out the car on the M6 around Carlisle.

 

I actually really like England, I like the people, the Sunday roast culture, all day sessions in a nice proper English pub. I like Geordies, Scousers, Mancs and Cockneys, most people are sound, same as here.

 

It's the Tory and now Nu Labour governments I despise, and the rich elite and corporations they protect to our National detriment.

All I meant was it's a nice feeling coming home. Wasn't about hating anyone or anything.

[Space Mackerel]

All I meant was it's a nice feeling coming home. Wasn't about hating anyone or anything.

I got what you meant. Just laying down some pointers that just because you want independence doesn't mean your anti English as the more moronic on this thread have stated enough times.

I've got a lot of English pals I served with, I can't see these friendships breaking because of us going independent.

[Don Dan]

Ethicon bailing out cause it's to expensive to hire labour here in Scotland. 400 jobs lost in the next 18 months Let's here what Nippy will say about it or do about the job losses. Texas a better option it appears.

[pablo]

I got what you meant. Just laying down some pointers that just because you want independence doesn't mean your anti English as the more moronic on this thread have stated enough times.

I've got a lot of English pals I served with, I can't see these friendships breaking because of us going independent.

It doesn't sound like you're getting what I mean? Otherwise you wouldn't feel the need to lay down some pointers, as I didn't. ") Edited March 9, 2017 by pablo

[Space Mackerel]

I don't think that Scotland will worry about a rebate

I really cannot see us being a net contributor

Check the brains on Cornwall

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

[Beast Boy]

Nothing to do with Yes/No or Leave/Remain per se. But it's a fecking brilliant feeling crossing the border from the English side, as I've just done on the west coast mainline. Surely we can all agree on that? That feeling . ..

I always like that feeling too. I used to get it more coming in to Edinburgh through Corstorphine, after visiting my girlfriend when she stayed in Glasgow. The difference in the entrances to the two cities is incredible. The imposing tower blocks and spaghetti roads that take you in to Glasgow feel so grey and depressing, whilst Corstorphine is so open and lined with nice houses.

[Beast Boy]

Check the brains on Cornwall

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

Few places like that. Many Welsh towns like Newport for example have just slit their own throats.

[Francis Albert]

Check the brains on Cornwall

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

I believe the UK is a net contributor to the EU, paying over ?13bn into the EU budget and receiving about ?5bn back. Maybe Cornish brains can do simple sums.

Edited March 9, 2017 by Francis Albert

[pablo]

I always like that feeling too. I used to get it more coming in to Edinburgh through Corstorphine, after visiting my girlfriend when she stayed in Glasgow. The difference in the entrances to the two cities is incredible. The imposing tower blocks and spaghetti roads that take you in to Glasgow feel so grey and depressing, whilst Corstorphine is so open and lined with nice houses.

Totally. That sense of belonging, like nostalgia in some regards, it's very powerful.

 

That beer advert from the 80s/90s about Caledonia, I'm coming home with the boy going from the Smoke to clean Edinburgh streets........and having a pint.

 

Anyway SNP nonsense, to get back on track.....They've made a right James Hunt of this named person thing...........

[Sarah O]

The seethe of unionists is great.  There's going to be another referendum because a huge portion of Scotland's people want it and the largest party IN THE COUNTRY is pro independence.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

Maybe if a union-loving party was BY FAR the biggest party in the country, independence debates simply wouldn't happen - but unfortunately the unionist parties are, lets face it, shan.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Ethicon bailing out cause it's to expensive to hire labour here in Scotland. 400 jobs lost in the next 18 months Let's here what Nippy will say about it or do about the job losses. Texas a better option it appears.

 

Puerto Rico, Brazil & Mexico are where the jobs are going apparently.

[jake]

A bit like Brexit Britain then?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/09/circumstances-have-moved-on-hammond-defends-breaking-tory-manifesto-promise-on-nics-politics-live?page=with:block-58c155afe4b0f24dba72347a#block-58c155afe4b0f24dba72347a

 

Oh dear .

 

It must be true a scare story from the guardian on brexit .

In 2020.

About austerity.

Ffs boris .

[Beast Boy]

Totally. That sense of belonging, like nostalgia in some regards, it's very powerful.

 

That beer advert from the 80s/90s about Caledonia, I'm coming home with the boy going from the Smoke to clean Edinburgh streets........and having a pint.

 

Anyway SNP nonsense, to get back on track.....They've made a right James Hunt of this named person thing...........

I remember that. I also really liked the Caledonia one. McEwen's I think?

[jake]

I always like that feeling too. I used to get it more coming in to Edinburgh through Corstorphine, after visiting my girlfriend when she stayed in Glasgow. The difference in the entrances to the two cities is incredible. The imposing tower blocks and spaghetti roads that take you in to Glasgow feel so grey and depressing, whilst Corstorphine is so open and lined with nice houses.

 

 

Whathisname will surely acvuse you of sextourism through the weej lol

[Beast Boy]

Whathisname will surely acvuse you of sextourism through the weej lol

Thanks again for not being a dick about that. Would have been easy for you to just sit and say nothing. Never know what people could believe.

 

Yeah, I probably run some kind of international sex trafficking racket now.

[Francis Albert]

The seethe of unionists is great.  There's going to be another referendum because a huge portion of Scotland's people want it and the largest party IN THE COUNTRY is pro independence.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

Maybe if a union-loving party was BY FAR the biggest party in the country, independence debates simply wouldn't happen - but unfortunately the unionist parties are, lets face it, shan.

Yet the majority did and will vote No. Could it be possible that some vote for the SNP, despite not wanting independence, precisely because the unionist parties are shan?

[Space Mackerel]

Few places like that. Many Welsh towns like Newport for example have just slit their own throats.

Yup, led up the garden path by Farage, Boris and co.

What a shower of simpletons. No wonder they get the straw chewing backward stereo type label in all honesty.

[deesidejambo]

The seethe of unionists is great. There's going to be another referendum because a huge portion of Scotland's people want it and the largest party IN THE COUNTRY is pro independence.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

Maybe if a union-loving party was BY FAR the biggest party in the country, independence debates simply wouldn't happen - but unfortunately the unionist parties are, lets face it, shan.

Recent polls have shown about 25% of the population want another Ref soon.

 

But keep inventing stuff

[Space Mackerel]

Recent polls have shown about 25% of the population want another Ref soon.

 

But keep inventing stuff

So, in other words half of SNP supporters don't think the times right?

[Arnold Rothstein]

So, in other words half of SNP supporters don't think the times right?

When exactly did 50% of the population vote for the SNP?

[deesidejambo]

So, in other words half of SNP supporters don't think the times right?

Mistaken again. Of the 25% a proportion are Yoons, including myself. So it's less than half of Nats.

 

They know they will lose. They are the clever ones. The dafties want it now.

[Space Mackerel]

When exactly did 50% of the population vote for the SNP?

Sort of right about this time. [emoji2]

 

 

Edited March 9, 2017 by Space Mackerel

[Space Mackerel]

Mistaken again. Of the 25% a proportion are Yoons, including myself. So it's less than half of Nats.

 

They know they will lose. They are the clever ones. The dafties want it now.

Don't make me me post that Dead or Alive video again please.

Mooth is on 22% by the way.

Edited March 9, 2017 by Space Mackerel

[Space Mackerel]

For the Pusbook users, Get you some of that!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39217235

Edited March 9, 2017 by Space Mackerel

[Pans Jambo]

For the Pusbook users, Get you some of that!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39217235

The question for me is...if this came from the SNP's own 'growth commission' and it is accurate then why not bury it but instead announce it? Something in it's timing. Nicola is up to something. No way would she knowingly release anything negative unless it suits her plans.

[Space Mackerel]

The question for me is...if this came from the SNP's own 'growth commission' and it is accurate then why not bury it but instead announce it? Something in it's timing. Nicola is up to something. No way would she knowingly release anything negative unless it suits her plans.

The top video is what you want to watch, unless the BRITISH BC changed the link, John Swinney putting Kezia on toast.

[deesidejambo]

Don't make me me post that Dead or Alive video again please.

Mooth is on 22% by the way.

Post it if you want but it doesn't change the data.

 

Good luck.

[Boris]

Oh dear .

It must be true a scare story from the guardian on brexit .

In 2020.

About austerity.

Ffs boris .

It's a report from the IFS isn't it? Rather than Guardian polemic?

[Adam Murray]

The question for me is...if this came from the SNP's own 'growth commission' and it is accurate then why not bury it but instead announce it? Something in it's timing. Nicola is up to something. No way would she knowingly release anything negative unless it suits her plans.

 

 

 

I put this link up a couple of day's ago when it was first in the papers

 

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/snp-finally-faces-awkward-truths-cost-independence/

 

 

Awkwardly, Andrew Wilson, the former SNP MSP charged with leading a ?Growth Commission? to look at ways Scotland?s economic performance can be improved, now admits what we knew all along: the SNP?s economic forecasts were indeed based on oil. Far from being a happy bonus, oil was the lynchpin of the Scottish economy. The most important single part of the entire apparatus. If it fails; so does everything else. Not, it is true, to the point of making Scotland too poor to survive as an independent nation but undoubtedly to the point at which it begins its independent existence manifestly, measurably, poorer than it would if it remained part of the United Kingdom. Which means if there is a next time ? and there may well be a next time ? a different argument will have to be made. As Andrew Wilson told the BBC

 

?We did have oil baked into the numbers and it was indeed a basis [for the economics of independence]. So I can say with some certainty in terms of our own work [in the Growth Commmission] that we?ll assume for the purposes of our projections that oil is producing zero revenues and therefore treat any revenues that we get from oil as a proper windfall to be used on intergenerational projects rather than spent on spending today?.

 

I suppose I should at this point say that Andrew Wilson has been a friend for 20 years now and I cannot think of many nationalists for whose integrity and intelligence I have more respect. They?d be a better movement if more of them were more like Andrew. Saying this does not help him, I know, but there we have it.

[Pans Jambo]

The top video is what you want to watch, unless the BRITISH BC changed the link, John Swinney putting Kezia on toast.

I did see that but Kezia & her chum in the Tories have a brass neck and cannot be embarrassed. Although they both should be.

[jake]

It's a report from the IFS isn't it? Rather than Guardian polemic?

 

No its a report of something negative from the guardian regarding brexit.

 

Boris you seem clued up.

 

Its a joke the way the so called left protect an organistion thats so anti working class.

[AlphonseCapone]

Er No. If you look at the sub questions you will see that support for No has a far stronger certainty base at 38% whilst support for yes is only at 28%.

 

But anyway bring it on. Let get this sorted Nicola for all our benefits.

C'mon mate, since when did that matter? It's a straight vote with everyone involved, unless that hardcore unionist vote was over 50% then it makes no difference.

 

The biggest surprise actually is that we constantly hear that nationalists are entrenched in their views and unwilling to see the other side, looks like the opposite from that poll.

[jake]

Just dont get the nationalists put down of the glow i felt at the brexit vote.

Bring on independence.

Where power is reduced to few and for the less.

Where the havenots it up for anyone who haves.

[jake]

C'mon mate, since when did that matter? It's a straight vote with everyone involved, unless that hardcore unionist vote was over 50% then it makes no difference.

 

The biggest surprise actually is that we constantly hear that nationalists are entrenched in their views and unwilling to see the other side, looks like the opposite from that poll.

 

Aw aye.

 

Prosperity measured by a general well being.

 

oil

 

currency

 

 

False perspectives.

[AlphonseCapone]

Aw aye.

 

Prosperity measured by a general well being.

 

*** oil

 

*** currency

 

 

False perspectives.

I honestly have no idea what you are on about.

[JamboX2]

The seethe of unionists is great. There's going to be another referendum because a huge portion of Scotland's people want it and the largest party IN THE COUNTRY is pro independence.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

Maybe if a union-loving party was BY FAR the biggest party in the country, independence debates simply wouldn't happen - but unfortunately the unionist parties are, lets face it, shan.

Yet, the SNP are in minority. It is only now that one poll has shown 50/50 and the growth commission set up by the SNP (and largely expected to state a high deficit exists) is yet to come.

 

Added to that a skewed electoral system for Westminster displaying an overly generous set of MPs for the SNP.

 

There's a bit more to go yet before independence and here's the thing, the fight here hasn't even started yet!

 

I fear for the state of Scotland after a second vote politically though. High chance of a lot of blood to spill post match and the lack of focus public services are getting at this point publically and from politicians is shocking and likely to end up in a rude awakening.