Brexit?

[Boris]

Had an interesting conversation with one of my Finance academics earlier.

 

Apparently if we default to WTO "rules", any deal we agree with another country, can be scuppered by any of the remaining WTO members.  So, if for example we reduced tariffs for NZ lamb, Argentina may block it, or say we'll agree if you give us the Malvinas.

 

Taking back control, right enough...

[jack D and coke]

Germany will cope, easily, as they do.

 

Anyway, Refugees this way, all aboard the Eurostar and ferries.

Aye Scotland could cope with hundreds of thousands of refugees right enough. What a great idea. We need immigration but not en masse.

Maybe it would show us up anyway as some seem so eager to point fingers at the English for being racist and xenophobes.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Had an interesting conversation with one of my Finance academics earlier.

 

Apparently if we default to WTO "rules", any deal we agree with another country, can be scuppered by any of the remaining WTO members. So, if for example we reduced tariffs for NZ lamb, Argentina may block it, or say we'll agree if you give us the Malvinas.

 

Taking back control, right enough...

WTO rules apply to the UK having a non-customs union status in trading with the EU. Outside of that, the UK can make as many bilateral deals as it wants.

[Gorgiewave]

Had an interesting conversation with one of my Finance academics earlier.

 

Apparently if we default to WTO "rules", any deal we agree with another country, can be scuppered by any of the remaining WTO members.  So, if for example we reduced tariffs for NZ lamb, Argentina may block it, or say we'll agree if you give us the Malvinas.

 

Taking back control, right enough...

 

The Falklands?

 

I know they would say Malvinas, but they'd be wrong.

[Boris]

WTO rules apply to the UK having a non-customs union status in trading with the EU. Outside of that, the UK can make as many bilateral deals as it wants.

 

Sorry Geoff, I don't really understand what you mean there.  After Brexit the Uk WILL have a non-customs union status with the EU, yes?  So WTO will apply?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Sorry Geoff, I don't really understand what you mean there. After Brexit the Uk WILL have a non-customs union status with the EU, yes? So WTO will apply?

Quite (assuming a hard Brexit). That doesn't preclude any new trade deals not involving the EU.

[jambo lodge]

Bit embarrassing for our beloved First Minister that the most recent You Gov poll shows 50% of Scots to be in favour of leaving the single market and 29% against. The people are clearly wrong and not listening to the First Minister who wants to save us from a hard Brexit.  

[aussieh]

Funnily enough, all countries will cope.

Exactly Geoff.

[aussieh]

Aye Scotland could cope with hundreds of thousands of refugees right enough. What a great idea. We need immigration but not en masse.

Maybe it would show us up anyway as some seem so eager to point fingers at the English for being racist and xenophobes.

Didn't mean us. Why would France stop them at the tunnel now?

[aussieh]

40 years and Scotland have under spent by ?3/5 b. So who's debt is it, really?

[jack D and coke]

40 years and Scotland have under spent by ?3/5 b. So who's debt is it, really?

Bit vague pal, explain a bit more[emoji1]

[aussieh]

Bit vague pal, explain a bit more[emoji1]

Scotland has sent back over ?20b to the treasury from the budget , over 40 years, but all we get is ?15b deficit chat. So, why have Scotland had to pay over ?70b in interest on the UK debt.

[jack D and coke]

Scotland has sent back over ?20b to the treasury from the budget , over 40 years, but all we get is ?15b deficit chat. So, why have Scotland had to pay over ?70b in interest on the UK debt.

Oh right I see.

Hmm interesting point.

[Thunderstruck]

Scotland has sent back over ?20b to the treasury from the budget , over 40 years, but all we get is ?15b deficit chat. So, why have Scotland had to pay over ?70b in interest on the UK debt.

Leaving aside your inability to differentiate debt and deficit, how would you balance the books in your independent "lalalalalala" (if I may quote one of your more infantile responses) land?

 

Higher taxation, lower public spending or a bit of both? How austere would you be willing to get?

[Caramoon]

Leaving aside your inability to differentiate debt and deficit, how would you balance the books in your independent "lalalalalala" (if I may quote one of your more infantile responses) land?

Higher taxation, lower public spending or a bit of both? How austere would you be willing to get?

The austerity would be frightening but, once the nats put their spin on it the brainwashed would be preaching to the masses. Iv'e already heard someone tell me that "at least it will be our debt". So very worrying!

[aussieh]

Leaving aside your inability to differentiate debt and deficit, how would you balance the books in your independent "lalalalalala" (if I may quote one of your more infantile responses) land?

 

Higher taxation, lower public spending or a bit of both? How austere would you be willing to get?

let me get this right, if I want to spend X? and I only have Y? Other than putting up taxes or spending less, I go to the bank, right, a loan ,right? Is that debt by deficit. No?

What's England's debt again 1.7trillion, with a ?90 billion deficit, right? So by not taxing or cutting that will be another 90 billion at least on the debt. No?

At the minute we have ?10/15 billion deficit so we borrow, tax or cut, or all 3. What's the problem?.

?15 b is 8% of Scotland's GDP .

?1.7 t is near 100% of the UK GDP.

[aussieh]

UK deficit is 70 billion not 90, sorry.

 

Revenue v Expenditure has us borrowing ?1.5b a week, and interest payments are 8% of tax revenue of the UK and 3% of UK GDP. But feck that Scotland's deficit is ?15 billion #snpbad #indybad #ukforever.

Scotland can't borrow they have to put up tax and cut public services.

[AlphonseCapone]

Why aren't folk as concerned about the UK's Trillions of debt or horrendous deficit that hasn't gone despite Tory claims it would?

 

How would you get that down Thunderstruck?

[aussieh]

Why aren't folk as concerned about the UK's Trillions of debt or horrendous deficit that hasn't gone despite Tory claims it would?

 

How would you get that down Thunderstruck?

Borrowing, cuts and tax hikes, no wait.

Tbf it came down a bit , but it's taken over a decade and a doubling of debt. But the Scottish government must get rid of it's deficit, NOW!!!

[Arnold Rothstein]

?15 b is 8% of Scotland's GDP .

?1.7 t is near 100% of the UK GDP.

Why are you using Scotland's deficit as a percentage of GDP but the UK's debt?

[aussieh]

Why are you using Scotland's deficit as a percentage of GDP but the UK's debt?

cause that's our debt.come the end of the year. Approx.

I couldnae edit the post, to write it in brackets, Arnie.

The deficit will be wiped out, as the Scottish government pit it under projects. The FRB type of thing, you know, HS2, trident, SWCA.

[aussieh]

Why are you using Scotland's deficit as a percentage of GDP but the UK's debt?

Arnie, can just put this to you. The USA are England's biggest export partner 14.5%, with 350m population, Germany are 3rd on 10% with an 80 million population.

Guess who's 2nd , itsy bitsy Scotland with 12.5% and a 5million population. Now I'd say we'd be alright in negotiations, No?

[Unknown user]

Arnie, can just put this to you. The USA are England's biggest export partner 14.5%, with 350m population, Germany are 3rd on 10% with an 80 million population.

Guess who's 2nd , itsy bitsy Scotland with 12.5% and a 5million population. Now I'd say we'd be alright in negotiations, No?

You're only looking at that from one side- what percentage of Scotlands exports go to England? Tenner says it's higher than 12.5%.

Now who holds the cards?

[doctor jambo]

Scotland has sent back over ?20b to the treasury from the budget , over 40 years, but all we get is ?15b deficit chat. So, why have Scotland had to pay over ?70b in interest on the UK debt.

Sorry, but ?20bilion over that length of time is buttons. Its only just over breakeven.

With  a ?15 billion deficit that's wiped out in just over a year

40 years of our "boom"  as you would see it, wiped out in 15 months

[jack D and coke]

You're only looking at that from one side- what percentage of Scotlands exports go to England? Tenner says it's higher than 12.5%.

Now who holds the cards?

Why won't they want our stuff anymore? This is one of the things that sticks in my craw about this union of ours. It's the threats that they'll punish us should we decide to go independent. Yet the uk is demanding the EU don't punish the UK after brexit...double standards much?

[Thunderstruck]

let me get this right, if I want to spend X? and I only have Y? Other than putting up taxes or spending less, I go to the bank, right, a loan ,right? Is that debt by deficit. No?

What's England's debt again 1.7trillion, with a ?90 billion deficit, right? So by not taxing or cutting that will be another 90 billion at least on the debt. No?

At the minute we have ?10/15 billion deficit so we borrow, tax or cut, or all 3. What's the problem?.

?15 b is 8% of Scotland's GDP .

?1.7 t is near 100% of the UK GDP.

There, you do understand. It's perhaps time that you stopped acting like some petulant child and entered into proper discussion instead of polluting any thread with "mintit" and a range of anti-English rants.

 

The question I put to you was how would you manage the income/expenditure/borrowing conundrum and, if that resulted in austere measures that put Scottish jobs and businesses at risk, would that, to quote Angus Robertson, be a price worth paying?

[Boris]

There, you do understand. It's perhaps time that you stopped acting like some petulant child and entered into proper discussion instead of polluting any thread with "mintit" and a range of anti-English rants.

 

The question I put to you was how would you manage the income/expenditure/borrowing conundrum and, if that resulted in austere measures that put Scottish jobs and businesses at risk, would that, to quote Angus Robertson, be a price worth paying?

 

Being run from Westminster by right wing nutjobs already does that imo.

 

Therefore, why not?  The next few years are going to be shite whichever way you look at it.  Now is possibly as good a time as any to make that break and get the shitfest over and done with.

[Unknown user]

Why won't they want our stuff anymore? This is one of the things that sticks in my craw about this union of ours. It's the threats that they'll punish us should we decide to go independent. Yet the uk is demanding the EU don't punish the UK after brexit...double standards much?

I'm not saying that, I'm just responding to the suggestion that Scotland hold the cards because we're such a big export partner to England, when in truth England would be even more vital to Scotland's exports.

[jack D and coke]

I'm not saying that, I'm just responding to the suggestion that Scotland hold the cards because we're such a big export partner to England, when in truth England would be even more vital to Scotland's exports.

Not disagreeing with that man I'm just always baffled by the punishment line England is apparently going to dish out to us should we decide that we'd like to make our own decisions on certain things.

Surely even after independence neither Scotland nor England would have a better ally in the world? Why would we suddenly become vindictive towards each other?

I don't think EU countries will do this either to the uk it just makes no sense to make business and trade more difficult.

[Unknown user]

Not disagreeing with that man I'm just always baffled by the punishment line England is apparently going to dish out to us should we decide that we'd like to make our own decisions on certain things.

Surely even after independence neither Scotland nor England would have a better ally in the world? Why would we suddenly become vindictive towards each other?

I don't think EU countries will do this either to the uk it just makes no sense to make business and trade more difficult.

I personally believe in an independent Scotland with a close bond to our ancient neighbour and closest ally, I'd like to think any spilt could be done positively, amicably and beneficially for everyone. As I say though, it's only looking at one side of the debate to think Scotland holds the power in an export competition. Unless you count mcewans export, then we win.

[Adam Murray]

Not disagreeing with that man I'm just always baffled by the punishment line England is apparently going to dish out to us should we decide that we'd like to make our own decisions on certain things.

Surely even after independence neither Scotland nor England would have a better ally in the world? Why would we suddenly become vindictive towards each other?

I don't think EU countries will do this either to the uk it just makes no sense to make business and trade more difficult.

 

 

It's kind of like the line that the sky will fall in when Brexit happens, but everything will be fine with Independence.

 

Or Angus Robertson saying that Brexit will bring a loss in earnings of ?2,000 to Scots workers, and 80,000 more unemployed, but again, no such losses in the event of Independence from the UK.

 

Too much bull crap getting spouted out from all sides.

 

Either way of Brexit, or any future Independence, will not bring too much change to your average man on the street, all that seems to be happening these day's are the pockets of lawyers and politicians being filled even further.

[aussieh]

There, you do understand. It's perhaps time that you stopped acting like some petulant child and entered into proper discussion instead of polluting any thread with "mintit" and a range of anti-English rants.

 

The question I put to you was how would you manage the income/expenditure/borrowing conundrum and, if that resulted in austere measures that put Scottish jobs and businesses at risk, would that, to quote Angus Robertson, be a price worth paying?

I'd let England play the big player and hope Scotland find their own level or niche, leave the fecking big feckers of the world to get on with it, while we restructure the whole country to suit a new economy.

First thing first, Educate our people properly, cause that's our main asset.

Scotland's no superpower, so we don't need to spend like one.

[Thunderstruck]

Being run from Westminster by right wing nutjobs already does that imo.

 

Therefore, why not? The next few years are going to be shite whichever way you look at it. Now is possibly as good a time as any to make that break and get the shitfest over and done with.

Really! You think that the shedding of jobs and closure of businesses is a price worth paying for independence. That is not what I would have expected from someone with a left of centre social conscience. Things are bad so let's make it worse in a kill or cure exercise.

 

Further, there is a growing body of opinion that the "shite-ness" in Scotland is a function of the actions of the Scottish Government either through sheer incompetence or as a wilful attempt to foment division - more likely a witches' brew of both.

 

Given that the 2014 event was sold on the promise of a share of substantial additional wealth and, even then, failed to excite the voters, I don't see such a prospectus winning.

[Boris]

Really! You think that the shedding of jobs and closure of businesses is a price worth paying for independence. That is not what I would have expected from someone with a left of centre social conscience. Things are bad so let's make it worse in a kill or cure exercise.

 

Further, there is a growing body of opinion that the "shite-ness" in Scotland is a function of the actions of the Scottish Government either through sheer incompetence or as a wilful attempt to foment division - more likely a witches' brew of both.

 

Given that the 2014 event was sold on the promise of a share of substantial additional wealth and, even then, failed to excite the voters, I don't see such a prospectus winning.

Did you read my first paragraph?

[jake]

Really! You think that the shedding of jobs and closure of businesses is a price worth paying for independence. That is not what I would have expected from someone with a left of centre social conscience. Things are bad so let's make it worse in a kill or cure exercise.

 

Further, there is a growing body of opinion that the "shite-ness" in Scotland is a function of the actions of the Scottish Government either through sheer incompetence or as a wilful attempt to foment division - more likely a witches' brew of both.

 

Given that the 2014 event was sold on the promise of a share of substantial additional wealth and, even then, failed to excite the voters, I don't see such a prospectus winning.

 

Can you explain why you think job losses and business failure would happen if Scotland governed itself ?

 

Sorry i see you have.

I doubt very much that the same businesses that do well just now would suddenly fail.

In fact there is argument that says it could improve.

The business being done just now will still be done and in fact our banks could ineffect have better capital.

Regardless of which currency we use.

Our economy would reflect its true worth and financial institutions would know that without a central bank there would be no bail out.

Meaning theyd be largely unnaffected by what happened in 08.

This makes them attractive.

Scotland could be highly educated high earning skilled economy.

 

But i agree with your sentiment that it cant be playing socialist in a capitalist world.

 

Also it cant be those things as part of the EU.

It will stifle this country as much as the union with England.

[Arnold Rothstein]

cause that's our debt.come the end of the year. Approx.

I couldnae edit the post, to write it in brackets, Arnie.

The deficit will be wiped out, as the Scottish government pit it under projects. The FRB type of thing, you know, HS2, trident, SWCA.

So they're not in the least bit comparable? Through so.

[Arnold Rothstein]

Dp

[Thunderstruck]

Did you read my first paragraph?

Indeed I did. As it refers to the emboldened text, it is a bit of whataboutery. I read it as you thinking that Westminster is causing a loss of jobs so let's dive in and lose a shedload of other jobs to promote the cause of independence. If that is not what you intended, you could perhaps explain yourself.

 

If that is what you meant, fine, everyone is entitled to a view and it's what you think needs to be done to pave your way to the Caledonian nirvana and what do the livelihoods of a few tens of thousands of people matter on that journey.

[deesidejambo]

Can you explain why you think job losses and business failure would happen if Scotland governed itself ?

 

Sorry i see you have.

I doubt very much that the same businesses that do well just now would suddenly fail.

In fact there is argument that says it could improve.

The business being done just now will still be done and in fact our banks could ineffect have better capital.

Regardless of which currency we use.

Our economy would reflect its true worth and financial institutions would know that without a central bank there would be no bail out.

Meaning theyd be largely unnaffected by what happened in 08.

This makes them attractive.

Scotland could be highly educated high earning skilled economy.

 

But i agree with your sentiment that it cant be playing socialist in a capitalist world.

 

Also it cant be those things as part of the EU.

It will stifle this country as much as the union with England.

If Scotland became Indy, the vast majority of RBS and BoS customers would close their accounts and move to English Banks, as the vast majority of RBS/BoS customers are currently based in England.

 

There are two reasons for this.  First the UK Govt underwrites personal losses in the event of a bank collapse, i.e. acts as an insurance policy for customers.  The Scottish Govt would have no resources to do this so security of peoples accounts would carry more risk,.

 

Secondly, RBS/BoS would in effect become foreign banks to english people, giving the customers risk of loss and/or lack of control.  

 

Im sure the Nats will think nobody will move their accounts into their country of residence, but they will.

 

The result will be loss of business/jobs etc in the Scottish banking sector.

[Thunderstruck]

Can you explain why you think job losses and business failure would happen if Scotland governed itself ?

 

Sorry i see you have.

I doubt very much that the same businesses that do well just now would suddenly fail.

In fact there is argument that says it could improve.

The business being done just now will still be done and in fact our banks could ineffect have better capital.

Regardless of which currency we use.

Our economy would reflect its true worth and financial institutions would know that without a central bank there would be no bail out.

Meaning theyd be largely unnaffected by what happened in 08.

This makes them attractive.

Scotland could be highly educated high earning skilled economy.

 

But i agree with your sentiment that it cant be playing socialist in a capitalist world.

 

Also it cant be those things as part of the EU.

It will stifle this country as much as the union with England.

 

The truth is that the future is uncertain but adding to uncertainty is not exactly a business-friendly exercise. I have linked the FSB survey below and you will see that Scotland and England are on widely different trajectories in terms of business confidence and level of investment. Given that the slide in Scotland has been underway for 18 months, it seems hard to suggest Brexit is the cause. Perhaps the view that Indy2 is seen as a threat is on the mark and if Scottish business is losing ground now, it doesn't bode well for Post-Indy if Scotland and England are in different trading blocks.

 

http://www.fsb.org.uk/docs/default-source/Publications/fsb-scotland-sbi-q4-2016.pdf?sfvrsn=5

 

As bankers for job losses, you can take the jobs at Faslane/Coulport and the the wider impact on the local economy. Then the Clyde shipyards and Rosyth, Fort George/Kinloss/Lossie/Leuchars. The notion that an independent Scotland will fully utilise all of these facilities is ludicrous in the extreme.

 

The above is only the Defence Sector but we could also consider the renewables sector that is now so important to Scotland - a renewables sector that prospers thanks largely to a fuel tax/supplement levied on English consumers. Hard to see that being allowed to continue.

 

Then there is the public sector - 500,000 jobs - can it survive at its current size if tax and spend are to be in balance and sustainable?

 

Are those risks worth taking?

[Mister T]

Time for Scotland to erect a border, we need to keep fleeing Brits out.

No refugees from bankrupt Britain. Keep them out, let France take them.

Still peddling your Brits pish.

[Radio Ga Ga]

After Nick Robinson ripped Alex Samond a new one today on Radio 4, I see the SNATS have organised a protest outside the BBC HQ in Glasgow on 26th March 2017 accusing the BBC of being bias, and why, the useless lump of lard could not answer his questions! FFS they don't get an easy ride and the journalists are biased, they better stick to the Nationalist then!

[Boris]

Indeed I did. As it refers to the emboldened text, it is a bit of whataboutery. I read it as you thinking that Westminster is causing a loss of jobs so let's dive in and lose a shedload of other jobs to promote the cause of independence. If that is not what you intended, you could perhaps explain yourself.

If that is what you meant, fine, everyone is entitled to a view and it's what you think needs to be done to pave your way to the Caledonian nirvana and what do the livelihoods of a few tens of thousands of people matter on that journey.

As you say, it is all whataboutery. I'm not sure that independence would cause the levels of unemployment and economic meltdown that you profess. Equally you could say that Westminster wouldn't either. That said I simply don't trust the Tories and their vision of what the uk will become.

 

I'd rather we were responsible for ourselves, managed our economy the way it suits us best. Invested in things important to us. Looked after our citizens because it is the duty of the state, not because we perceive them as drains on society.

 

The next decade will be tough either way, I'd rather we guided ourselves through it, rather than a cabal at Westminster who appear to care very little for the long term interests of the people.

[JamboX2]

Labour/Corybn, maybe looking to impose a 3 line whip on its MP's to vote for the triggering of article 50.

 

60-80 MP's ready to vote against it, if there's a vote in Parliament.

 

Covering their arses, & preserving their self-interest, in their respective constituencies that voted remain, most likely.

 

Glad this is all going smoothly though...

Protecting their arses or representing the views of their constituents?

 

Going to say it's the latter.

 

MP's are supposed to be their constituents voice in Parliament, not their party's voice in the seat. If 60% of your seat backs Brexit you should probably represent the majority view point.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Protecting their arses or representing the views of their constituents?

 

Going to say it's the latter.

 

MP's are supposed to be their constituents voice in Parliament, not their party's voice in the seat. If 60% of your seat backs Brexit you should probably represent the majority view point.

 

You would hope so, but with 216 Labour MP's voting to remain against only 10 voting to leave, then there are bound to be many amongst this 60-80 who will vote for their own views on the subject and ignore the will of their constituents.

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-mp-vote-eu-referendum-9187679

Yes I know it's the Mirror so I'm not going to say how accurate it is, but it does give you an indication of the way MP's voted.

[JamboX2]

You would hope so, but with 216 Labour MP's voting to remain against only 10 voting to leave, then there are bound to be many amongst this 60-80 who will vote for their own views on the subject and ignore the will of their constituents.

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-mp-vote-eu-referendum-9187679

Yes I know it's the Mirror so I'm not going to say how accurate it is, but it does give you an indication of the way MP's voted.

 

And if they do that, it is also constitutionally legitimate. An MP must vote with his conscience with consideration for the views of the people he represents. Some will make a choice based on what they see as the best option for the future of the nation. Others will follow the will of their constituents. 

 

Labour is a pro-EU party. Has been since the 1980s under Kinnock. It is no surprise a lot of it's MPs believe that membership of the EU is preferable to being out. 

 

Corbyn will impose a 3 line whip if he wants to. But the fact is the PLP will likely see massive splits on this matter. Corbyn has garnered no loyalty from his backbenches. Partly because he has run a mediocre operation and has handed the entire centre ground and stage to the Tories, and the SNP to an extent. 

 

He should go. He wont. But he should. 

[jake]

And if they do that, it is also constitutionally legitimate. An MP must vote with his conscience with consideration for the views of the people he represents. Some will make a choice based on what they see as the best option for the future of the nation. Others will follow the will of their constituents.

 

Labour is a pro-EU party. Has been since the 1980s under Kinnock. It is no surprise a lot of it's MPs believe that membership of the EU is preferable to being out.

 

Corbyn will impose a 3 line whip if he wants to. But the fact is the PLP will likely see massive splits on this matter. Corbyn has garnered no loyalty from his backbenches. Partly because he has run a mediocre operation and has handed the entire centre ground and stage to the Tories, and the SNP to an extent.

 

He should go. He wont. But he should.

 

Corbyn has been stitched up by every press outlet in this country and thats indisputable.

[JamboX2]

Corbyn has been stitched up by every press outlet in this country and thats indisputable.

He's ineffective. He contradicts his own policies often. He is both for and against himself.

 

Yes he's an outsider. Yes the media are skeptical of him. But by christ he makes it bloody hard for himself at the same time.

[jake]

He's ineffective. He contradicts his own policies often. He is both for and against himself.

 

Yes he's an outsider. Yes the media are skeptical of him. But by christ he makes it bloody hard for himself at the same time.

 

He has not stood a chance.

Not only has reporting of him been negative its been antagonistic and also faked.

The oxbridge element that has hijacked labour constantly brief against him.

 

Theres loads i dont agree with him but its yet another indication of media that is as controlled as any other worldwide.

 

There are of course many other sources of information.

Which unsurprisingly are the ones labelled fake.

[jake]

?3 per hour paid to textyle workers in Britain.

Less than half the minium rate.

 

But but the EU Protects workers.

 

If ever there was a case for controlled immigration this is it.

Or is this the back up for the argument we need immigrants to do the jobs others wont?